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Wind River Subbasin Restoration, Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities, January 2016 through December 2016

We used Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT)-tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to investigate life-histories, populations, and efficacy of habitat restoration actions for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Wind River subbasin, WA. Our tagging focused on parr in headwaters areas of the subbasin and our instream readers provided information on movement of these parr and other life-stages of tagged steelhead. The Wind River subbasin in southwest Washington State provides habitat for a population of wild Lower Columbia River steelhead and is an excellent watershed for long-term studies of population dynamics and responses to restoration of this wild population. No hatchery steelhead have been planted in the Wind River subbasin since 1994, and hatchery adults are estimated to be less than one percent of adults in any year (pers comm. Thomas Buehrens, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). Numerous restoration actions have been implemented in the subbasin, including the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek in 2009. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW), will contribute to Bonneville Power Administration’s (BPA) Research Monitoring and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/ViewProgramStrategySummary/1), specifically the substrategies of: 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and to Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild steelhead population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer 2016, we sampled and PIT-tagged age-0 and age-1 steelhead parr in headwater areas of the Wind River subbasin to characterize population traits and investigate variable life-histories, including growth and parr movement downstream prior to smolting. Repeat sampling and smolt traps provide opportunities for recapture, and instream PTISs and Columbia River infrastructure provide opportunity for detection of PIT-tagged fish. Throughout the year, we maintained a series of instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged steelhead parr, smolts, and adults. During 2016, we repaired or replaced much of our instream PTIS infrastructure that had been damaged or destroyed during a large flood event in December 2015. This included moving our upper Wind River detection site (WRU) about a kilometer downstream to a location we hope to be less susceptible to damage in high flows and that will allow grid power connection for more reliable winter operations. Detections at the instream PTISs showed trends of parr emigration during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. These data are increasing our understanding of varied life histories of juvenile steelhead; paired with other steelhead population work in the subbasin we hope to begin to understand some of the factors which may influence parr movements. Long-term monitoring of PIT-tagged fish over multiple years is providing information on contribution of various life-history strategies to smolt production and adult returns, as well as helping to identify factors influencing parr movement. Movements of PIT-tagged adult steelhead were also tracked with our instream PTISs. These data have provided information on timing of adult movements to various parts of the watershed, which is allowing us to assess adult returns to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Determination of adult use of tributary watersheds is providing data to contribute to evaluation of the efficacy of the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek. Hemlock Dam, located at rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek was removed in summer 2009 and had contributed to hydrologic impairment of Trout Creek Evaluating restoration efforts is of interest to many managers and agencies so that funding and time are allocated for best results. The evaluation of various life-histories of Lower Columbia River steelhead within the Wind River subbasin will provide information to better track populations, and to direct habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Increasingly detailed Viable Salmonid Population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTISs networks like those we are building and operating in the Wind River subbasin, will provide data to inform policy and management, as life-history strategies and production bottlenecks are identified and understood.

Report↗

Thermal profiles for selected river reaches in the Stillaguamish River basin, Washington, August 2011

Datums Horizontal coordinate information is referenced to the North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). Abstract Longitudinal profiles of near-streambed temperature were collected for eight river reaches in the Stillaguamish River basin, Washington, during August 2011, to provide information about areas of groundwater discharge to streams. During summer, groundwater discharge can be a source of cold water to streams that regulates warm stream temperatures creating cold-water thermal refugia for native stream biota including salmon and trout. To assess areas of groundwater discharge to streams, temperature was measured using a probe with an internal datalogger towed behind a watercraft moving downstream at ambient stream velocity. The data were referenced to location, concurrently surveyed with a Global Positioning System, during collection of the water temperature data. Data are presented as Microsoft Excel® files consisting of date and time, near-streambed water temperature, and latitude and longitude. Introduction Longitudinal profiles of near-streambed temperatures surveyed at ambient river velocity in a Lagrangian framework provide information about potential areas of groundwater discharge as well as salmonid habitat and thermal refugia (Vaccaro and Maloy, 2006). Longitudinal thermal profiles have previously been surveyed in several rivers in Washington, including the Yakima River and tributaries (Vaccaro and others, 2008) and the Nooksack River (Cox and others, 2005). This report presents eight thermal profiles within the Stillaguamish River basin including parts of the North Fork Stillaguamish River, South Fork Stillaguamish River, Jim Creek, and Pilchuck Creek (fig. 1). This data augments previous investigations of longitudinal temperature variations within the Stillaguamish River and tributaries by thermal infrared radar by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Watershed Sciences, 2002), and may be used as a tool to develop a better understanding of groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Stillaguamish River basin. Purpose and Scope The purpose of this report is to present longitudinal thermal profiles of stream temperature of streams within the Stillaguamish River basin including the North Fork Stillaguamish River, the South Fork Stillaguamish River, Pilchuck Creek, and Jim Creek. This data may be used to determine zones of groundwater discharge and improve understanding of the relation between the groundwater and surface water systems of the Stillaguamish River basin. Description of Study Area The Stillaguamish River basin is in northwestern Washington and is bounded to the east by the Cascade Mountains, to the west by Puget Sound, to the north by the Skagit River basin, and to the south by the Snohomish River basin (fig. 1). The Stillaguamish River basin is characterized by cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers. Mean annual discharge of the North Fork Stillaguamish River (North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington, Washington, USGS gaging station 12167000) for water years 1929-2010 is 1,898 ft 3 /s and mean annual discharge of the South Fork Stillaguamish River (South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls, Washington gaging station 12161000) for water years 1929-1980 is 1,071 ft 3 /s. Jim Creek is a tributary of the South Fork Stillaguamish River and Pilchuck Creek is a tributary of the mainstem Stillaguamish River. Thermal Profile Survey Continuous water temperature and Global Positioning System (GPS) data were collected at 3-second intervals while drifting downstream at ambient stream velocity in a Lagrangian framework following the method of Vaccaro and Maloy (2006) for Pilchuck Creek between river mile (RM) 0.0 and 3.7 (table 1); the North Fork Stillaguamish River between RM 0.0 and 34.2 (tables 2-5); South Fork Stillaguamish River between RM 17.7 and 33.4 (tables 6-7); and Jim Creek between RM 0.0 and 7.0 (table 8). Profiling at ambient stream velocity in a Lagrangian framework tracks a parcel of water as it moves downstream during the day; departures from the diurnal heating cycle may be due to groundwater input, surface-water inflows, or riparian shading. Continuous temperature was measured using a Solinst® Levelogger LT temperature probe verified by a National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) certified thermistor and position data was measured using a Garmin® GPSmap® 60Csx for the eight surveys during August 15-26, 2011. The temperature probe was towed behind a watercraft following the stream thalweg and dragged along the streambed except when in-stream obstacles prevented probe movement downstream. The location of each temperature measurement was determined by relating the time stamp of the GPS data to the temperature data. If a GPS location was not recorded at the same time as a temperature measurement, the location of the temperature measurement was determined by linear interpolation of the two GPS known locations that bracket the time of the temperature measurement. A 0.5-mi gap exists between the beginning of the North Fork Stillaguamish datasets collected on August 18 (table 4) and August 22 (table 5) because of inadequate equilibration of the temperature probe to ambient stream temperature during the initial 0.5 mi of the August 22 survey. Distribution of Information An Excel file of tables 1-8 that include the thermal-profile data for each longitudinal thermal profile is available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/654/ds654_tables.xls. Table 1. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the Pilchuck Creek (RM 0.0-3.7), August 15, 2011. Table 2. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the North Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 30.0-34.2), August 16, 2011. Table 3. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the North Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 17.6-30.0), August 17, 2011. Table 4. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the North Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 9.5-17.6), August 18, 2011. Table 5. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the North Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 0.0-9.0), August 22, 2011. Table 6. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the South Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 25.9-33.4), August 24, 2011. Table 7. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for the South Fork Stillaguamish River (RM 17.7-25.9), August 26, 2011. Table 8. Temperature and Global Positioning System location data for Jim Creek (RM 0.0-7.0), August 25, 2011. References Cited Cox, S.E., Simonds, F.W., Doremus, L., Huffman, R.L., and Defawe, R.M., 2005, Ground water/surface water interactions and quality of discharging ground water in streams of the lower Nooksack River Basin, Whatcom County, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5255, 46 p Vaccaro, J.J., Keys, M.E., Julich, R.J., and Welch, W.B., 2008, Thermal profiles for selected river reaches in the Yakima River basin, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 342 (Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/342/). Vaccaro, J.J., and Maloy, K.J., 2006, A thermal profile method to identify potential ground-water discharge areas and preferred salmonid habitats for long river reaches: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2006-5136, 16 p. Watershed Sciences, LLC, 2002, Aerial surveys in the Stillaguamish and Skagit River Basins-Thermal infrared and color videography: Corvallis, Oreg., Water Sciences, for Washington Department of Ecology, 28 p.

Data Series↗

The ecology of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay: a community profile

This profile, part of a series of profiles concerning coastal habitats of the United States, is a detailed examination of the soft-bottom benthos of San Francisco Bay. A U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and California Department of Fish and Game report (1979) entitled "Protection and Restoration of San Francisco Bay Fish and Wildlife Habitat" provides clear recognition of the importance of intertidal and subtidal soft-bottom habitats and their associated organisms to the bay's birds and fishes and to the overall functioning of the estuary. The purpose of this profile is to provide a description of the structure and functioning of the benthic community in San Francisco Bay (exclusive of its tidal marshes, which are discussed by M. Josselyn [1983] in another profile). The habitats covered in this volume include all nonvegetated soft-bottom intertidal and subtidal areas of the bay between the Golden Gate and the mouths of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to the northeast, and to the southern extremity of the bay. The profile provides a reference to the scientific information concerning the animals and plants of the bay's benthic communities, their importance to the bay ecosystem, and their value as a resource measured in human terms. Because there have been few process-oriented studies of the benthos of San Francisco Bay (e.g., field and laboratory rate-measurement experiments), the material presented herein is largely descriptive. Nonetheless, we have described the processes that interconnect the various physical, chemical, and biological components of the benthic environment, and the important couplings between this environment and the water column above, with reference to research results from other estuaries where necessary. We consider the role of the benthic community as a food source for fish, aquatic birds, and humans; as a consumer or degrader of organic materials including wastes; as a recycler of minerals and nutrients; and as an accumulator of pollutants.

California↗

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey hydrologic climate-response program in Maine

It is important to monitor hydrologic systems in the United States that could change dramatically over the short term as a result of climate change. Many ecological effects of climate change can be understood only if hydrologic data networks are in place. Because of its humid, temperate climate and its substantial annual snowpack, Maine’s seasonal water cycle is sensitive to air temperature changes (Hodgkins and others, 2003). Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. A series of recent investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has documented changes in several components of the water cycle, including earlier snowmelt runoff in Maine during the last 30 to 40 years (Hodgkins and others, 2003), earlier lake- and river-ice breakups (Hodgkins and others, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2005), and a denser and thinner late-winter snowpack (Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006). Snowmelt runoff timing was measured as the date, each year, by which half of the total winter-spring streamflow passed a streamflow-gaging station. Historical snowmelt runoff timing for the Piscataquis River in central Maine is shown in figure 1 as an example. Results of climate projections input to hydrologic models indicate that hydrologic trends, such as earlier spring snowmelt runoff, are expected to continue into the future (Hayhoe and others, 2007). These trends could affect species at the southern edge of their range in Maine, such as Atlantic salmon and Canada lynx, and may also affect availability of water for human use. This fact sheet describes the framework of a hydrologic climate-response program that would improve understanding of the effects of future climate change in Maine.

Maine↗

Understanding and forecasting potential recruitment of Lake Michigan fishes by modeling growth and survival of larval stages with coupled climate, biophysical, and bioenergetics models

Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability may explain historical variation in the survival of young alewife and yellow perch, two fish populations that support key fisheries either directly or indirectly, while also projecting their future survival in the mid-21st century under different scenarios informed by consultation with fishery managers. Our model results revealed how spring and summer water temperatures in Lake Michigan can affect the environment in which young alewife and yellow perch grow and survive. Specifically, in years when lake warming is rapid, young fish are more likely to be transported from their natal, productive, nearshore environments to cooler and less productive offshore environments, unless adults also spawn earlier in these warm years. Furthermore, model predictions of prey abundance for young fish in the mid-21st century indicate less favorable conditions for growth and survival compared to predictions based solely on warming temperatures. With completion of the final products in the coming year, including predicted growth and survival of young fish under different future scenarios, fishery managers will have more information to share with stakeholders regarding how expectations may need to be modified regarding alewife and yellow perch productivity.

Lake Michigan↗

Boundary of the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, north-central Colorado, 2006-2007

This vector data set delineates the approximate boundary of the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer (ERWVFA). This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. The boundary of the ERWVFA was developed by combining information from two data sources. The first data source was a 1:250,000-scale geologic map of the Leadville quadrangle developed by Day and others (1999). The location of Quaternary sediments was used as a first approximation of the ERWVFA. The boundary of the ERWVFA was further refined by overlaying the geologic map with Digital Raster Graphic (DRG) scanned images of 1:24,000 topographic maps (U.S. Geological Survey, 2001). Where appropriate, the boundary of the ERWVFA was remapped to correspond with the edge of the valley-fill aquifer marked by an abrupt change in topography at the edge of the valley floor throughout the Eagle River watershed. The boundary of the ERWVFA more closely resembles a hydrogeomorphic region presented by Rupert (2003, p. 8) because it is based upon general geographic extents of geologic materials and not on an actual aquifer location as would be determined through a rigorous hydrogeologic investigation.

Colorado↗

Calibration of the Trinity River Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) with extension to the Klamath River, California, 2006–17

The Trinity River is managed in two sections: (1) the upper 64-kilometer (km) “restoration reach” downstream from Lewiston Dam and (2) the 120-km lower Trinity River downstream from the restoration reach. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) has been previously constructed and calibrated for the restoration reach. In this report, we extended and parameterized S3 for the 120-km section of the lower Trinity River to the confluence with the Klamath River and then to the Pacific Ocean in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage structured-population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river discharge affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive (1) survival and growth within each habitat unit and (2) movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the Trinity River was formed by classifying the river into 910 meso-habitat units that were designated into runs, riffles, or pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily discharge, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity timeseries were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg maturation and survival, and in turn, juvenile movement, growth, and survival. We estimated key movement and survival parameters by calibrating the model to 12 years (2007–18) of weekly juvenile abundance estimates from two rotary screw traps: (1) the Pear Tree trap near the downstream end of the restoration reach and (2) the Willow Creek trap site is about 40.2 km upriver from the Trinity River’s confluence with the Klamath River. The calibration consisted of replicating historical conditions as closely as possible (for example: flow, temperature, spawner abundance, spawning location and timing, and hatchery releases), and then running the model to predict weekly abundance passing the trap location. We also evaluated four alternative model structures that included either no density-dependence, density-independent movement and survival, density-dependent survival, or density-dependent movement. Akaike information criterion model selection was used to evaluate the strength of evidence for alternative model structures to simulate the observed abundance estimates. Model selection supported the conclusion that the fully density-dependent model and density-dependent survival model was better supported by the data than the no density-dependence or density-dependent movement model. Because density-dependent movement was favored in past evaluations, we focus on the results from the fully density-dependent model. Parameter estimates from this model indicated that fry were less likely than parr to move downstream and that fry moved slower. Fry had a lower daily survival probability than parr. In contrast, hatchery fish had the highest probability of movement and the lowest daily survival probability. Fitting the model to both traps individually enabled us to independently compare the fit and performance of S3 at simulating fish abundance, timing, and growth of juvenile salmon in the upper restoration reach and lower Trinity River. We obtained a better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site than we obtained at the Pear Tree trap site, regardless of whether we fit the model to the abundances at the Pear Tree trap or Willow Creek trap. This better fit was surprising given that the S3 input data for the upper restoration reach required fewer assumptions than fitting to the Willow Creek trap site that is farther down river. Fitting S3 to weekly abundances at the Willow Creek trap site required making assumptions about (1) extrapolating capacity-flow relationships to unmeasured habitat units; (2) spatially allocating spawners within the lower Trinity River; and (3) approximating the abundance, timing, and size of juveniles entering from tributaries. The model provided better fit to the data at the Willow Creek trap site. In the weekly abundance estimates, in relation to the S3 simulated abundances, several migration years’ (2011, 2015–17) weekly abundance estimates appeared truncated and were near or at peak annual abundances in January, suggesting that a large fraction of juveniles was migrating as early as December at the Pear Tree trap site. Some early life dynamics may not be currently incorporated into S3. For example, the estimation of abundance at the Pear Tree trap may be biased because of size selectivity. Knowing about selectivity at the Pear Tree trap could greatly improve S3’s ability to predict weekly and peak abundances each year.

California↗

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia↗

Evaluation of water-quality characteristics and sampling design for streams in North Dakota, 1970–2008

In response to the need to examine the large amount of historic water-quality data comprehensively across North Dakota and evaluate the efficiency of the State-wide sampling programs, a study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission and the North Dakota Department of Health to describe the water-quality data collected for the various programs and determine an efficient State-wide sampling design for monitoring future water-quality conditions. Although data collected for the North Dakota State Water Commission High-Low Sampling Program, the North Dakota Department of Health Ambient Water-Quality Network, and other projects and programs provide valuable information on the quality of water in streams in North Dakota, the objectives vary among the programs, some of the programs overlap spatially and temporally, and the various sampling designs may not be the most efficient or relevant to the objectives of the individual programs as they have changed through time. One objective of a State-wide sampling program was to evaluate ways to describe the spatial variability of water-quality conditions across the State in the most efficient manner. Weighted least-squares regression analysis was used to relate the average absolute difference between paired downstream and upstream concentrations, expressed as a percent of the average downstream concentration, to the average absolute difference in daily flow between the downstream and upstream pairs, expressed as a percent of the average downstream flow. The analysis showed that a reasonable spatial network would consist of including the most downstream sites in large basins first, followed by the next upstream site(s) that roughly bisect the downstream flows at the first sites, followed by the next upstream site(s) that roughly bisect flows for the second sites. Sampling sites to be included in a potential State-wide network were prioritized into 3 design levels: level 1 (highest priority), level 2 (second priority), and level 3 (third priority). Given the spatial distribution and priority designation (levels 1–3) of sites in the potential spatial network, the next consideration was to determine the appropriate temporal sampling frequency to use for monitoring future water-quality conditions. The time-series model used to detect concentration trends for this report also was used to evaluate sampling designs to monitor future water-quality trends. Sampling designs were evaluated with regard to their sensitivity to detect seasonal trends that occurred during three 4-month seasons—March through June, July through October, and November through February. For the 34 level-1 sites, samples would be collected for major ions, trace metals, nutrients, bacteria, and sediment eight times per year, with samples in January, April (2 samples),May, June, July, August, and October. For the 21 level-2 sites, samples would be collected for major ions, trace metals, and nutrients six times per year (January, April, May, June, August, and October), and for the 26 level-3 sites, samples would be collected for these constituents four times per year (April, June, August, and October).

North Dakota↗

Estimation of unaltered daily mean streamflow at ungaged streams of New York, excluding Long Island, water years 1961-2010

The lakes, rivers, and streams of New York State provide an essential water resource for the State. The information provided by time series hydrologic data is essential to understanding ways to promote healthy instream ecology and to strengthen the scientific basis for sound water management decision making in New York. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with The Nature Conservancy and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, has developed the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool to estimate a daily mean hydrograph for the period from October 1, 1960, to September 30, 2010, at ungaged locations across the State. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool produces a complete estimated daily mean time series from which daily flow statistics can be estimated. In addition, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool provides a means for quantitative flow assessments at ungaged locations that can be used to address the objectives of the Clean Water Act—to restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the Nation’s waters. The New York Streamflow Estimation Tool uses data from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow network for selected streamgages in New York (excluding Long Island) and surrounding States with shared hydrologic boundaries, and physical and climate basin characteristics to estimate the natural unaltered streamflow at ungaged stream locations. The unaltered streamflow is representative of flows that are minimally altered by regulation, diversion, or mining, and other anthropogenic activities. With the streamflow network data, flow-duration exceedance probability equations were developed to estimate unaltered streamflow exceedance probabilities at an ungaged location using a methodology that equates streamflow as a percentile from a flow-duration curve for a particular day at a hydrologically similar reference streamgage with streamflow as a percentile from the flow-duration curve for the same day at an ungaged location. The reference streamgage is selected using map correlation, a geostatistical method in which variogram models are developed that correlate streamflow at one streamgage with streamflows at all other locations in the study area. Regression equations used to predict 17 flow-duration exceedance probabilities were developed to estimate the flow-duration curves at ungaged locations for New York using geographic information system-derived basin characteristics. A graphical user interface, with an integrated spreadsheet summary report, has been developed to estimate and display the daily mean streamflows and statistics and to evaluate different water management or water withdrawal scenarios with the estimated monthly data. This package of regression equations, U.S. Geological Survey streamgage data, and spreadsheet application produces an interactive tool to estimate an unaltered daily streamflow hydrograph and streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in New York. Among other uses, the New York Streamflow Estimation Tool can assist water managers with permitting water withdrawals, implementing habitat protection, estimating contaminant loads, or determining the potential affect from chemical spills.

New York↗

High-water marks from Hurricane Sandy for coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, October 2012

Because coastal areas in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts were heavily affected by Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), under a mission agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, collected storm tide high-water marks in those coastal areas. This effort was undertaken to better understand the areal extent and impact of storm tides resulting from strong storms. On October 27–29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy moved up the eastern coast of the United States after passing over the Bahamas. On October 29 at about 7:30 p.m. eastern daylight time, Hurricane Sandy made landfall its final time near Brigantine, New Jersey, with recorded wind speeds of about 80 miles per hour. The damages from Hurricane Sandy exceeded $50 billion in total, making it the second most costly Atlantic hurricane at that time, second only to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Hurricane Sandy also resulted in 147 deaths, and about 650,000 homes and many businesses being damaged along the eastern coast of the United States. The severity of Hurricane Sandy’s effects resulted in presidential disaster declarations being declared in 10 States from Virginia to Massachusetts and the District of Columbia in the months following Hurricane Sandy; the list of States affected included Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. In response to the approach of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS deployed 60 temporary storm tide sensors and 2 temporary real-time rapid deployment gages to collect tide elevation data during the storm along the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. This activity was done from Virginia to Maine before the storm. Following Hurricane Sandy, in October and November 2012, 371 storm tide high-water marks were identified and flagged in the coastal areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water marks near USGS temporary storm tide sensors, real-time rapid deployment gages, and streamgages affected by the tides as well as high-water marks on Block Island, R.I., and Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, Mass., were surveyed at the same time the high-water marks were identified and flagged in October and November 2012. The remaining high-water marks flagged during October and November 2012 were surveyed from December 2013 through June 2014 and in December 2016. Elevations of all high-water marks were referenced to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 and horizontal coordinates to the North American Datum of 1983 using the Global Navigation Satellite System, survey-grade Digital Global Positioning System receivers, and total station surveying equipment. Of the 371 storm tide high-water marks flagged following Hurricane Sandy, only 364 high-water marks were surveyed; the remaining 7 could not be found or had been destroyed when locations were revisited to conduct surveys. The 157 high-water marks surveyed in Connecticut had elevations that ranged from 2.5 to 12.2 feet (ft) with an average elevation of 8.1 ft and a median elevation of 8.3 ft. The 76 high-water marks in Rhode Island had elevations that ranged from 3.6 to 16.2 ft and averaged 7.1 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. The 131 high-water marks in Massachusetts had elevations that ranged from 2.8 to 22.7 ft and averaged 7.3 ft with a median of 6.6 ft. Individual information on the location, type, accuracy, and elevation of the 371 high-water marks can be found in an accompanying USGS data release and at the USGS Flood Event Viewer website for Hurricane Sandy ( https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/fev/#Sandy ). The high-water marks along the coast line of Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts, including Nantucket, generally had higher storm tide elevations than the coast line of Rhode Island including Block Island and southern Massachusetts, including Martha’s Vineyard. The high-water mark elevations compare well with recorded peak-storm tide data at USGS temporary storm tide sensors and real-time rapid deployment gages deployed for Hurricane Sandy in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. High-water mark data collected following Hurricane Sandy will be used by Federal, State, and local government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, universities, and the public for better understanding the areal extent and impact of the storm tides. Additionally, these data can be used for such activities as land-use planning, flood risk studies, flood resiliency studies, and coastal modeling. These data from this historic storm can be compared with other regional hurricanes and tropical storms for planning into the future.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗

Reference manual for generation and analysis of Habitat Time Series: version II

The selection of an instream flow requirement for water resource management often requires the review of how the physical habitat changes through time. This review is referred to as 'Time Series Analysis." The Tune Series Library (fSLIB) is a group of programs to enter, transform, analyze, and display time series data for use in stream habitat assessment. A time series may be defined as a sequence of data recorded or calculated over time. Examples might be historical monthly flow, predicted monthly weighted usable area, daily electrical power generation, annual irrigation diversion, and so forth. The time series can be analyzed, both descriptively and analytically, to understand the importance of the variation in the events over time. This is especially useful in the development of instream flow needs based on habitat availability. The TSLIB group of programs assumes that you have an adequate study plan to guide you in your analysis. You need to already have knowledge about such things as time period and time step, species and life stages to consider, and appropriate comparisons or statistics to be produced and displayed or tabulated. Knowing your destination, you must first evaluate whether TSLIB can get you there. Remember, data are not answers . This publication is a reference manual to TSLIB and is intended to be a guide to the process of using the various programs in TSLIB. This manual is essentially limited to the hands-on use of the various programs. a TSLIB use interface program (called RTSM) has been developed to provide an integrated working environment where the use has a brief on-line description of each TSLIB program with the capability to run the TSLIB program while in the user interface. For information on the RTSM program, refer to Appendix F. Before applying the computer models described herein, it is recommended that the user enroll in the short course "Problem Solving with the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM)." This course is offered by the Aquatic Systems Branch of the National Ecology Research Center. For more information about the TSLIB software, refer to the Memorandum of Understanding. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology and TSLIB. Other chapters in this manual provide information on the different aspects of using the models. The information contained in the other chapters includes (2) acquisition, entry, manipulation, and listing of streamflow data; (3) entry, manipulation, and listing of the habitat-versus-streamflow function; (4) transferring streamflow data; (5) water resources systems analysis; (6) generation and analysis of daily streamflow and habitat values; (7) generation of the time series of monthly habitats; (8) manipulation, analysis, and display of month time series data; and (9) generation, analysis, and display of annual time series data. Each section includes documentation for the programs therein with at least one page of information for each program, including a program description, instructions for running the program, and sample output. The Appendixes contain the following: (A) sample file formats; (B) descriptions of default filenames; (C) alphabetical summary of batch-procedure files; (D) installing and running TSLIB on a microcomputer; (E) running TSLIB on a CDC Cyber computer; (F) using the TSLIB user interface program (RTSM); and (G) running WATSTORE on the USGS Amdahl mainframe computer. The number for this version of TSLIB--Version II-- is somewhat arbitrary, as the TSLIB programs were collected into a library some time ago; but operators tended to use and manage them as individual programs. Therefore, we will consider the group of programs from the past that were only on the CDC Cyber computer as Version 0; the programs from the past that were on both the Cyber and the IBM-compatible microcomputer as Version I; and the programs contained in this reference manual as Version II.

Report↗

Coastal circulation and sediment dynamics in Maunalua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii: Measurements of waves, currents, temperature, salinity, and turbidity: November 2008-February 2009

High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity and turbidity were made in Maunalua Bay, southern Oahu, Hawaii, during the 2008–2009 winter to better understand coastal circulation, water-column properties, and sediment dynamics during a range of conditions (trade winds, kona storms, relaxation of trade winds, and south swells). A series of bottom-mounted instrument packages were deployed in water depths of 20 m or less to collect long-term, high-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature, salinity, and turbidity. These data were supplemented with a series of profiles through the water column to characterize the vertical and spatial variability in water-column properties within the bay. These measurements support the ongoing process studies being done as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Pacific Coral Reef Project; the ultimate goal of these studies is to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, pollutants, and other particles in coral reef settings. Project Objectives The objective of this study was to understand the temporal variations in currents, waves, tides, temperature, salinity and turbidity within a coral-lined embayment that receives periodic discharges of freshwater and sediment from multiple terrestrial sources in the Maunalua Bay. Instrument packages were deployed for a three-month period during the 2008–2009 winter and a series of vertical profiles were collected in November 2008, and again in February 2009, to characterize water-column properties within the bay. Measurements of flow and water-column properties in Maunalua Bay provided insight into the potential fate of terrestrial sediment, nutrient, or contaminant delivered to the marine environment and coral larval transport within the embayment. Such data are useful for providing baseline information for future watershed decisions and for establishing guidelines for the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force’s (USCRTF) Hawaiian Local Action Strategy to address Land-Based Pollution (LAS-LBP) threats to coral reefs adjacent to the urbanized watersheds of Manualua Bay. Study Area Maunalua Bay is on the south side of Oahu, Hawaii, and is approximately 10 km long and 3 km wide. The bay is flanked by two large, dormant craters: Koko Head to the east and Diamond Head to the west. Rainfall in the watersheds that drain into Maunalua Bay ranges from more than 200 cm/year at the top of the Ko‘olau Range that borders the northwestern part of the bay to less than 70 cm/year to the east at Koko Head. Seven major channels flow into the bay, and all but one have been altered by engineering structures.

Hawaii↗

Determination of flow losses in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington, North Carolina, 2008-2010

During 2008-2010, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a hydrologic investigation in cooperation with the Triangle J Council of Governments Cape Fear River Flow Study Committee and the North Carolina Division of Water Resources to collect hydrologic data in the Cape Fear River between B. Everett Jordan Lake and Lillington in central North Carolina to help determine if suspected flow losses occur in the reach. Flow loss analyses were completed by summing the daily flow releases at Jordan Lake Dam with the daily discharges at Deep River at Moncure and Buckhorn Creek near Corinth, then subtracting these values from the daily discharges at Cape Fear River at Lillington. Examination of long-term records revealed that during 10,227 days of the 1983-2010 water years, 408 days (4.0 percent) had flow loss when conditions were relatively steady with respect to the previous day's records. The flow loss that occurred on these 40 days ranged from 0.49 to 2,150 cubic feet per second with a median flow loss of 37.2 cubic feet per second. The months with the highest number of days with flow losses were June (16. percent), September (16.9 percent), and October (19.4 percent). A series of synoptic discharge measurements made on six separate days in 2009 provided "snapshots" of overall flow conditions along the study reach. The largest water diversion is just downstream from the confluence of the Haw and Deep Rivers, and discharges substantially decrease in the main stem downstream from the intake point. Downstream from Buckhorn Dam, minimal gain or loss between the dam and Raven Rock State Park was noted. Analyses of discharge measurements and ratings for two streamgages-one at Deep River at Moncure and the other at Cape Fear River at Lillington-were completed to address the accuracy of the relation between stage and discharge at these sites. The ratings analyses did not indicate a particular time during the 1982-2011 water years in which a consistent bias occurred in the computations of discharge records that would indicate false flow losses. A total of 34 measured discharges at a streamgage on the Haw River below B. Everett Jordan Lake near Moncure were compared with the reported hourly flow releases from Jordan Lake Dam. Because 28 of 34 measurements were within plus or minus 10 percent of the hourly flow releases reported by the U.S Army Corps of Engineers, use of the current discharge computation tables for reporting Jordan Lake Dam flow releases is generally supported. A stage gage was operated on the Cape Fear River at Buckhorn Dam near Corinth to collect continuous stage-only records. Throughout the study period, flow over the dam was observed along its length, and flow loss within the study reach is not attributed to river-level fluctuations at the dam. Water-use information and (or) data were obtained for five industrial facilities, a regional power utility, two municipalities, one small hydropower facility on the Deep River, and one quarry operation also adjacent to the Deep River. The largest water users are the regional power producer, a small hydropower operation, and the two municipalities. The total water-use diversions for these facilities range from almost 25.5 to 38.5 cubic feet per second (39.5 to 59.5 million gallons per day) during the winter and summer periods, respectively. This range is equivalent to 69 to 104 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. The Lockville hydropower station is on the Deep River about 1 mile downstream from the streamgage near Moncure. Run-of-river operations at the facility do not appear to affect flow losses in the study reach. The largest water user in the study area is a regional power producer at a coal-fired power-generation plant located immediately adjacent to the Cape Fear River just downstream from the confluence of the Haw an Deep Rivers. Comparisons of daily water withdrawals, sup-plied by the regional power producer, and discharge records at a streamgage on the diversion canal indicated many days when consumption exceeded the producer's estimates for the cooling towers. Uncertainty surrounding reasonable estimates of consumption remained in effect at the end of the study. Data concerning evaporative losses were compiled using two approaches-an analysis of available pan-evaporation data from a National Weather Service cooperative observer station in Chapel Hill, North Carolina; and a compilation of reference open-water evaporation computed by the State Climate Office of North Carolina. The potential flow loss by evaporation from the main stem and the Deep River was estimated to be in the range of 4 to 14 cubic feet per second during May through October, equivalent to 10 to 38 percent of the 37 cubic feet per second median flow loss. Daily water-use diversions and evaporation losses were compared to flow-loss occurrences during the period April 2008 through September 2010. In comparing the surface-water, water-use, and evaporation data compiled for 2008-2010, it is evident that documented water diversions combined with flow losses by open-water evaporation can exceed the net flow gain in the study area and result in flow losses from the reach. Analysis of data from a streamgage downstream from the regional power plant on the diversion canal adjacent to the Cape Fear River provided insight into the occurrence of an apparent flow loss at the streamgage at Lillington. Assessment of the daily discharges and subsequent hydrographs for the canal streamgage indicated at least 24 instances during the study when the flows suddenly changed by magnitudes of 100 to more that 200 cubic feet per second, resulting in a noted time-lag effect on the downstream discharges at the Lillington streamgage, beginning 8 to 16 hours after the sudden flow change. A fiber-optic distributed temperature-sensing survey was conducted on the Cape Fear River at the Raven Rock State Park reach August 12-14, 2009, to determine if the presence of diabase dikes were preferentially directing groundwater discharge. No temperature anomalies of colder water were measured during the survey, which indicated that at the time of the survey that particular reach of the Cape Fear River was a "no-flow" or losing stream. An aerial thermal-infrared survey was conducted on the Haw and Cape Fear Rivers on February 27, 2010, from Jordan Lake Dam to Lillington to qualitatively delineate areas of groundwater discharge on the basis of the contrast between warm groundwater discharge and cold surface-water temperatures. Dis-charge generally was noted as diffuse seepage, but in a few cases springs were detected as inflow at a discrete point of discharge. Two reaches of the Cape Fear River (regional power plant and Bradley Road reaches) were selected for groundwater monitoring with a transect of piezometers installed within the flood plain. Groundwater-level altitudes at these reaches were analyzed for 1 water year (October 1, 2009, to September 30, 2010). Data collected as part of this study represent only a brief period of time and may not represent all conditions and all years; however, the data indicate that, during the dry summer months, the Cape Fear River within the study area is losing an undetermined quantity of water through seepage. Analyses completed during this investigation indicate a study reach with complex flow patterns affected by numerous concurrent factors resulting in flow losses. The causes of flow loss could not be solely attributed to any one factor. Among the factors considered, the occurrences of water diversions and evaporative losses were determined to be sufficient on some days (particularly during the base-flow period) to exceed the net gain in flows between the upstream and downstream ends of the study area. Losses by diversions and evaporation can exceed the median flow loss of 3 cubic feet per second, which indicates that flow loss from the study reach is real. Groundwater data collected during 2009-2010 indicate the possibility of localized flow loss during the summer, particularly in the impounded reach above Buckhorn Dam. However, no indication of unusual patterns was noted that would cause substantial flow loss by groundwater and surface-water interaction at the river bottom.

North Carolina↗

Hydrology of area 54, northern Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain coal provinces, Colorado and Wyoming

A nationwide need for information characterizing hydrologic conditions in mined and potential mine areas has become paramount with the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. This report, one in a series covering the coal provinces nationwide, presents information thematically by describing single hydrologic topics through the use of brief texts and accompanying maps, graphs, or other illustrations. The summation of the topical discussions provides a description of the hydrology of the area. Area 54, in north-central Colorado and south-central Wyoming, is 1 of 20 hydrologic reporting areas of the Northern Great Plains and Rocky Mountain coal provinces. Part of the Southern Rocky Mountains and Wyoming Basin physiographic provinces, the 8,380-square-mile area is one of contrasting geology, topography, and climate. This results in contrasting hydrologic characteristics. The major streams, the North Platte, Laramie, and Medicine Bow Rivers, and their principal tributaries, all head in granitic mountains and flow into and through sedimentary basins between the mountain ranges. Relief averages 2,000 to 3,000 feet. Precipitation in the mountains may exceed 40 inches annually, much of it during the winter, which produces deep snowpacks. Snowmelt in spring and summer provides most streamflow. Precipitation in the basins averages 10 to 16 inches annually, insufficient for sustained streamflow; thus, streams originating in the basins are ephemeral. Streamflow quality is best in the mountains where dissolved-solids concentrations generally are least. These concentrations increase as streams flow through sedimentary basins. The increases are mainly natural, but some may be due to irrigation in and adjacent to the flood plains. In the North Platte River, dissolved-solids concentrations are usually less than 300 milligrams per liter; in the Laramie and the Medicine Bow Rivers, the concentrations may average 500 to 850 milligrams per liter. However, water-quality stations on the Laramie and the Medicine Bow Rivers are farther removed from the mountain sources than the stations in the North Platte drainage. Because of the semiarid climate of the basins, soils are not adequately leached. Consequently, flow in ephemeral streams usually has a larger concentration of dissolved solids than that in perennial streams, averaging 1,000 to 1,600 milligrams per liter. Aquifers containing usable ground water are combined into three groups: (1) consolidated and unconsolidated non-coal-bearing Quaternary and Upper Tertiary deposits, (2) Mesozoic and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and (3) Lower Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sedimentary rocks containing coal. These aquifers are used for municipal, domestic, irrigation, and stock supplies. Well yields range from about 5 to 1,000 gallons per minute, and depend on type of aquifer, saturated thickness, and degree of fracturing. The best quality ground water usually comes from the non-coal-bearing Quaternary and Upper Tertiary rocks or the Mesozoic and Paleozoic rocks; often it is dominated by calcium and bicarbonate ions. The coal-bearing formations have a large variability in water chemistry; dominant ions may be bicarbonate or sulfate and sodium, calcium, or magnesium. Dissolved-solids concentrations are generally larger than in the former two groups. The U.S. Geological Survey operates a network of hydrologic stations to observe the streamflow and groundwater conditions. This network currently includes 31 surface-water stations and 35 observation wells; information is available for many other sites observed in the past. Data available include rate of flow, water levels, and water quality; much of the data are available in published reports or from computer storage through the National Water Data Exchange (NAWDEX) or the National Water Data Storage and Retrieval System (WATSTORE). Five formations of Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary age contain coal.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

Geologic studies in Alaska by the U.S. Geological Survey, 1997

The eight papers that follow continue the series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports on investigations in the geologic sciences in Alaska. The series presents new and sometimes preliminary findings that are of interest to earth scientists in academia, government, and industry; to land and resource managers; and to the general public. Reports presented in Geologic Studies in Alaska cover a broad spectrum of topics from all parts of the State (fig. 1), which serves to emphasize the diversity of USGS efforts to meet the Nation's needs for earth-science information in Alaska. The papers in this volume are organized under the topics Resources, Geologic Framework, and Environment and Climate. Such an organization is intended to reflect the scope and objectives of USGS programs currently active in Alaska. Resource papers include one that presents detailed observations from a Mississippian Zn-Pb-Cu-Ag occurrence in the Brooks Range (Werdon). Mineralogic, chemical, and isotopic data provide the basis for a proposed relationship between this vein-breccia deposit and the shale-hosted massive sulfide deposit type, which includes the active Red Dog mine in the western Brooks Range. Also included under the topic of Resources is a paper that presents geochemical and isotopic data from the Greens Creek and Woewodski Island volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits in southeastern Alaska (Newberry and Brew). The depositional environment and sedimentological setting of Tertiary coal beds in the Matanuska and Susitna Valleys is the focus of a third paper under the topic of Resources (Flores and others). Geologic Framework studies provide background information that is the scientific basis for present and future studies of the environment, mineral and energy resources, paleoclimate, and hazards in Alaska. One paper presents the results of sedimentologic and paleontologic comparisons of lower Paleozoic, deep-water-facies rock units in central Alaska (Dumoulin and others). The authors show which of these units are likely to correlate with one another, suggest likely source regions, and provide a structural restoration of units that have been fragmented by large fault motions. A second framework paper provides a map, rock descriptions, and chemical compositions of volcanic rocks in a newly recognized, geologically young volcanic center in the Aleutian volcanic arc (Hildreth and others). A third paper presents an interesting summary of gravity changes that occurred in south-central Alaska during the great earthquake of 1964 and for the following 25 years (Barnes). Gravity changes correlate with land-elevation changes in some cases, but not in others, which means that different processes are responsible for the gravity changes.

Alaska↗

Bicentennial of the 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 2011–2012

A series of earthquakes hit the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, in December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes had a magnitude of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The main shocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for decades. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.

General Information Product↗

The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: Lessons and conclusions

One of the greatest earthquakes of all time struck south-central Alaska on March 27, 1964. Strong motion lasted longer than for most recorded earthquakes, and more land surface was dislocated, vertically and horizontally, than by any known previous temblor. Never before were so many effects on earth processes and on the works of man available for study by scientists and engineers over so great an area. The seismic vibrations, which directly or indirectly caused most of the damage, were but surface manifestations of a great geologic event-the dislocation of a huge segment of the crust along a deeply buried fault whose nature and even exact location are still subjects for speculation. Not only was the land surface tilted by the great tectonic event beneath it, with resultant seismic sea waves that traversed the entire Pacific, but an enormous mass of land and sea floor moved several tens of feet horizontally toward the Gulf of Alaska. Downslope mass movements of rock, earth, and snow were initiated. Subaqueous slides along lake shores and seacoasts, near-horizontal movements of mobilized soil (“landspreading”), and giant translatory slides in sensitive clay did the most damage and provided the most new knowledge as to the origin, mechanics, and possible means of control or avoidance of such movements. The slopes of most of the deltas that slid in 1964, and that produced destructive local waves, are still as steep or steeper than they were before the earthquake and hence would be unstable or metastable in the event of another great earthquake. Rockslide avalanches provided new evidence that such masses may travel on cushions of compressed air, but a widely held theory that glaciers surge after an earthquake has not been substantiated. Innumerable ground fissures, many of them marked by copious emissions of water, caused much damage in towns and along transportation routes. Vibration also consolidated loose granular materials. In some coastal areas, local subsidence was superimposed on regional tectonic subsidence to heighten the flooding damage. Ground and surface waters were measurably affected by the earthquake, not only in Alaska but throughout the world. Expectably, local geologic conditions largely controlled the extent of structural damage, whether caused directly by seismic vibrations or by secondary effects such as those just described. Intensity was greatest in areas underlain by thick saturated unconsolidated deposits, least on indurated bedrock or permanently frozen ground, and intermediate on coarse well-drained gravel, on morainal deposits, or on moderately indurated sedimentary rocks. Local and even regional geology also controlled the distribution and extent of the earthquake's effects on hydrologic systems. In the conterminous United States, for example, seiches in wells and bodies of surface water were controlled by geologic structures of regional dimension. Devastating as the earthquake was, it had many long-term beneficial effects. Many of these were socioeconomic or engineering in nature; others were of scientific value. Much new and corroborative basic geologic and hydrologic information was accumulated in the course of the earthquake studies, and many new or improved investigative techniques were developed. Chief among these, perhaps, were the recognition that lakes can be used as giant tiltmeters, the refinement of methods for measuring land-level changes by observing displacements of barnacles and other sessile organisms, and the relating of hydrology to seismology by worldwide study of hydroseisms in surface-water bodies and in wells. The geologic and hydrologic lessons learned from studies of the Alaska earthquake also lead directly to better definition of the research needed to further our understanding of earthquakes and of how to avoid or lessen the effects of future ones. Research is needed on the origins and mechanisms of earthquakes, on crustal structure, and on the generation of tsunamis and local waves. Better earthquake-hazard maps, based on improved knowledge of regional geology, fault behavior, and earthquake mechanisms, are needed for the entire country. Their preparation will require the close collaboration of engineers, seismologists, and geologists. Geologic maps of all inhabited places in earthquake-prone parts of the country are also needed by city planners and others, because the direct relationship between local geology and potential earthquake damage is now well understood. Improved and enlarged nets of earthquake-sensing instruments, sited in relation to known geology, are needed, as are many more geodetic and hydrographic measurements. Every large earthquake, wherever located, should be regarded as a full-scale laboratory experiment whose study can give scientific and engineering information unobtainable from any other source. Plans must be made before the event to insure staffing, funding, and coordination of effort for the scientific and engineering study of future earthquakes. Advice of earth scientists and engineers should be used in the decision-making processes involved in reconstruction after any future disastrous earthquake, as was done after the Alaska earthquake. The volume closes with a selected bibliography and a comprehensive index to the entire series of U.S. Geological Survey Professional Papers 541-546. This is the last in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 546, in 1 part, describes Lessons and Conclusions.

Alaska↗