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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Climate from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, 1986 – 2017: Surface air temperature trends and redefined summer season

The weather of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, the largest ice‐free region of the Antarctica, has been continuously monitored since 1985 with currently 14 operational meteorological stations distributed throughout the valleys. Because climate is based on a 30‐year record of weather, this is the first study to truly define the contemporary climate of the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Mean air temperature and solar radiation based on all stations were −20°C and 102 W m −2 , respectively. Depending on the site location, the mean annual air temperatures on the valleys floors ranged between −15°C and −30°C, and mean annual solar radiation varied between 72 and 122 W m −2 . Surface air temperature decreased by 0.7°C per decade from 1986 to 2006 at Lake Hoare station (longest continuous record), after which the record is highly variable with no trend. All stations with sufficiently long records showed similar trend shifts in 2005 ±1 year. Summer is defined as November through February, using a physically based process: up‐valley warming from the coast associated with a change in atmospheric stability.

JGR Atmospheres↗
USGS2021

Long-term Mississippi River trends expose shifts in the river load response to watershed nutrient balances between 1975 and 2017

Excess nutrients transported by the Mississippi River (MR) contribute to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Nutrient balances are key drivers to river nutrient loads and represent inputs (fertilizer, manure, deposition, wastewater, N-fixation, and weathering) minus outputs (nutrient uptake and removal in harvest, and N emissions). Here, we quantified annual changes in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) river loads and nutrient balances at the MR Outlet and documented that the river load response to watershed nutrient balances shifted between 1975 and 2017. Annual nutrient balances and river loads were positively correlated between 1975 and 1985, but after, a disconnect between both the N and P balances and river loads emerged, and the subsequent river load patterns were different for N versus P. We evaluated the relative impacts of legacy nutrients and other latent factors, for which data were not available, on river nutrient load trends. Our analysis showed that in the case of N, latent factors were potentially just as important in explaining changes in river nutrient loads over time as N balances, and in the case of P, they were even more important. We hypothesized that these factors included implementation of best management practices, changes in watershed buffering capacity, the effects of tile drainage, or increased precipitation. Our analytical approach shows promise for the investigation of drivers of water quality trends that are not well-represented in typical national scale geospatial datasets.

Mississippi River↗
USGS2022

Going beyond low flows: Streamflow drought deficit and duration illuminate distinct spatiotemporal drought patterns and trends in the U.S. during the last century

Streamflow drought is a recurring challenge, and understanding spatiotemporal patterns of past droughts is needed to manage future water resources. We examined regional patterns in streamflow drought metrics and compared these metrics to low flow timing and magnitude using long-term daily records for 555 minimally disturbed watersheds. For each streamgage, we calculated streamflow drought duration (number of days) and deficit (flow volume below a specified threshold) for each climate year (April 1–March 31). We identified drought using five thresholds (2%–30%) and two approaches: variable thresholds with unique values for each day of the year, and a fixed threshold based on all period-of-record flows. We then analyzed drought trends using the Mann-Kendall test with persistence adjustment for 1921–2020, 1951–2020, and 1981–2020, and computed correlations between annual streamflow drought metrics and climate metrics using values from a monthly water balance model. Spatial patterns in drought metrics were consistent between variable and fixed approaches, though fixed threshold durations were typically longer and variable threshold deficits larger. High interannual variability in drought duration emerged in the central, interior west, and southwestern U.S., with high deficit variability in the interior west. Drought metrics were weakly correlated with low flow magnitude and timing, providing unique information. Drought duration and deficit increased in the southern and western U.S. for both 1951–2020 and 1981–2020, particularly using fixed thresholds, and paralleled trends in aridity. Projections of continued aridification for the southern and western U.S. may increase drought durations and deficits and intensify water availability impacts.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

A nonparametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence.

Statistical tests for monotonic trend in seasonal (e.g., monthly) hydrologic time series are commonly confounded by some of the following problems: nonnormal data, missing values, seasonality, censoring (detection limits), and serial dependence. An extension of the Mann-Kendall test for trend (designed for such data) is presented here. Because the test is based entirely on ranks, it is robust against nonnormality and censoring. Seasonality and missing values present no theoretical or computational obstacles to its application. Monte Carlo experiments show that, in terms of type I error, it is robust against serial correlation except when the data have strong long-term persistence (e.g., ARMA (1, 1) monthly processes with ϕ > 0.6) or short records (∼ 5 years). When there is no serial correlation, it is less powerful than a related simpler test which is not robust against serial correlation.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2025

Integrated distribution modeling resolves asynchrony between bat population impacts and occupancy trends through latent abundance

Monitoring populations is challenging for cryptic species with seasonal life cycles, where data from multiple field techniques are commonly collected and analyzed as multiple lines of evidence. Data integration can provide comprehensive inferences while improving accuracy, precision, and scope but faces challenges in modeling misaligned resolutions and observational uncertainties. We developed a multi-scale, integrated species distribution model (MS-iSDM) for North American bats to combine data across monitoring types and seasons using joint likelihood methods, observational models with false-negatives and false-positives, and seasonal migratory connectivity. We applied this model to 11 years of data for an imperiled bat species (tricolored bat, Perimyotis subflavus ). Relative abundance and occupancy were linked with multi-scale predictors, revealing clear patterns of population declines, but with important differences in spatial trends (abundance: corresponded with white-nose syndrome impacts, occupancy: at the range periphery) and overall severity (abundance: -74.8%, 95% CRI: -79.7% to -69.3%; occupancy: -35.5%, 95% CRI: -41.1% to -30.2%). The asynchrony between occupancy trends and population impacts was explained as an emergent pattern of spatiotemporal variation in abundance in the integrated distribution model. Compared to multiple lines of evidence, the integrated model provided consensus-estimates, increased precision and spatiotemporal scope, and strengthened evidence of population declines.

Communications Biology↗
USGS2012

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954–2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Trends in conservation research and management in Hawai‘i over the past 20 years

Hawaiʻi, an archipelago of the most isolated inhabited islands on the planet, faces unique and extreme challenges to its biodiversity. We examined how the conservation community has responded to these challenges and how the responses have changed over time, using twenty years of abstracts from the Hawaiʻi Conservation Conference, a yearly gathering of the majority of scientists, managers and the public in Hawaiʻi. Of the 2145 abstracts considered, 60% percent reported research results; 40.0% reported information on conservation and resource management programmes and institutions (i.e., non-research abstracts). Initially, applied research abstracts predominated, but in recent years the number of basic research abstracts has become similar. Across taxonomic groups, terrestrial plants, mammals and birds were the dominant research subjects, fish, algae and fungi were noticeably less studied relative to their diversity in Hawaiʻi. Bird and fish species studied were mostly native; research on most other taxa was evenly divided between native and non-native species. Topics have oscillated in frequency over the years, but there have been no dramatic trends, with the exception of climate change and Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK). Although there is an increasing trend in LEK and cross-disciplinary studies, the number of related abstracts have remained uncommon through the period, accounting for less than 5.0% of total research abstracts analyzed. Our results offer an oportunity for the conservation community to take a closer look at reported effort to better address key conservation questions for Hawaiʻi.

Hawaiʻi↗
USGS2025

Chlorophyll trends are negative for lakes but positive for estuarine–coastal waters

Nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) pollution is an environmental problem of global concern because overenrichment of water bodies increases phytoplankton biomass and ecosystem metabolism, depletes oxygen in bottom waters, and increases the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms. These responses to nutrient pollution have motivated policies to reduce anthropogenic nutrient inputs. However, these policies have not been universally implemented and their success at reducing phytoplankton biomass is confounded by other components of global change that regulate the conversion of nutrients into biomass. These regulating processes themselves are changing in the Anthropocene. Our study is an assessment of changing phytoplankton biomass over the period 2000–2019, using chlorophyll a trends measured in 191 lakes and 159 estuarine-coastal sites. Our results show that phytoplankton biomass has decreased in most lakes, increased in most coastal sites, and the largest trends have been predominantly negative for lakes and positive for coastal sites. These results provide evidence of opposing directions of phytoplankton biomass change between lakes and coastal sites in this recent period of unprecedented global change. Nutrient pollution is a knotty environmental problem, and our study indicates that it might be a particularly challenging problem for ecosystems situated in densely populated landscapes where freshwater and sea water meet. Success at overcoming this challenge will require deeper scientific understanding of changes in processes that regulate the conversion of nutrients into phytoplankton biomass, substantial investments of time and resources to reduce nutrient inputs, and a flexible strategy designed to anticipate and adapt to a changing world.

PNAS↗
USGS2015

Long-term trends in reservoir water quality and quantity in two major river basins of the southern Great Plains

Trends in water quality and quantity were assessed for 11 major reservoirs of the Brazos and Colorado river basins in the southern Great Plains (maximum period of record, 1965–2010). Water quality, major contributing-stream inflow, storage, local precipitation, and basin-wide total water withdrawals were analyzed. Inflow and storage decreased and total phosphorus increased in most reservoirs. The overall, warmest-, or coldest-monthly temperatures increased in 7 reservoirs, decreased in 1 reservoir, and did not significantly change in 3 reservoirs. The most common monotonic trend in salinity-related variables (specific conductance, chloride, sulfate) was one of no change, and when significant change occurred, it was inconsistent among reservoirs. No significant change was detected in monthly sums of local precipitation. Annual water withdrawals increased in both basins, but the increase was significant ( P < 0.05) only in the Colorado River and marginally significant ( P < 0.1) in the Brazos River. Salinity-related variables dominated spatial variability in water quality data due to the presence of high- and low-salinity reservoirs in both basins. These observations present a landscape in the Brazos and Colorado river basins where, in the last ∼40 years, reservoir inflow and storage generally decreased, eutrophication generally increased, and water temperature generally increased in at least 1 of 3 temperature indicators evaluated. Because local precipitation remained generally stable, observed reductions in reservoir inflow and storage during the study period may be attributable to other proximate factors, including increased water withdrawals (at least in the Colorado River basin) or decreased runoff from contributing watersheds.

California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, U↗
USGS2021

The effects of urban land cover dynamics on urban heat Island intensity and temporal trends

Assessments of surface urban heat island (UHI) have focused on using remote sensing and land cover data to quantify UHI intensity and spatial distribution within a certain time period by including land cover information. In this study, we implemented a prototype approach to characterize the spatiotemporal variations of UHI using time series of Landsat land surface temperature products and annual land change information. We analyzed UHI distribution and change in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in the north-central United States and found that the mean UHI intensity in the region was as large as 2.2°C during the period 1986–2017 with an increasing trend of 0.02°C per year within the area with a 5-km non-urban extent. The UHI intensity associated with high intensity urban land cover usually is stronger than with low intensity urban land cover. We evaluated the impact of different non-urban reference extents on UHI variation using different non-urban buffers. The result also suggests that the overall temporal trends of UHI intensity are almost the same when using a 5-km or 10-km non-urban buffer surrounding the urban core. The prototype approach provides a framework to consistently quantify UHI and monitor its change to a large geographic extent.

South Dakota↗
USGS2022

Trends analysis of Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) fractional component time series (1985–2020)

Rangelands have a dynamic response to climate change, fire, and other anthropogenic disturbances. The Rangeland Condition, Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (RCMAP) product aims to capture this response by quantifying the percent cover of eight rangeland components, associated error, and trends across the western United States using Landsat from 1985 to 2020. The current generation of RCMAP has been improved with more training data, regional-scale Landsat composites, and more robust change detection. We assess the temporal patterns in each component with a linear model and a structural change method that determines break points using an 8-year temporal moving window. The linear and structural change methods generally agreed on patterns of change, but the latter found breaks more often, with at least one break point in most pixels. The structural change model provides more robust statistics on the significant minority of pixels with non-monotonic trends, while detrending some interannual signal potentially superfluous from a long-term perspective. Although break point density within one year of fire and vegetation treatments was ~10× and ~4× that of unburned areas, respectively, break point detection in the correct year of fire was only moderately accurate. Climate responses in break points proved more robust, with strong spatiotemporal relation in break point density with both aridity index values and aridity index change. Break point density strongly responds to both increased and decreased aridity and is reflective of ecosystem resilience. Data provide spatiotemporal information on the occurrence of breaks, but even more importantly, attribute those change events to specific component(s).

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
USGS2025

Population trends of native and non-native forest birds on the island of Molokai, Hawaii

Hawaiʻi’s avifauna has undergone profound changes over the past 1,000 years, with many endemic bird species driven to extinction and non-native introductions reshaping forest ecosystems. On the island of Molokaʻi, habitat degradation and the introduction of mosquito-borne disease, mainly avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), have caused extinctions and severe declines in native forest bird populations. To assess these changes, point-transect distance sampling surveys were initiated in 1979 and 1980 and repeated six times, most recently in 2021, covering a 3,527 ha area. This study analyzes species composition, population densities, abundances, and long-term trends for species with sufficient detections using log-linear regression. Since 1979–1980, a total of 17 non-native and 3 native species were detected across all six surveys. The non-native Warbling White-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ) had the highest density and abundance in every survey, while abundance of Red-billed Leiothrix ( Leiothrix lutea ) significantly trended upward. The Japanese Bush Warbler ( Horornis diphone ) irrupted in the survey area, increasing in abundance by more than 99% since 1979–1980. Among native species, ʻApapane ( Himatione sanguinea ) populations increased by 33%, while Hawaiʻi ʻAmakihi ( Chlorodrepanis virens ) declined by 78% from their peak in 1995. Federally threatened ʻIʻiwi ( Drepanis coccinea ), highly susceptible to avian malaria, have not been recorded on Molokaʻi since 2010, and the endemic Olomaʻo ( Myadestes lanaiensis ) has not been detected since 1980 and is possibly extinct. Our results underscore the ongoing conservation crisis for Molokaʻi’s forest birds and the continued vulnerability of native birds to disease and habitat loss.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Variability and trends in runoff efficiency in the conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water-year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water-year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water-year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8-digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north-central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south-central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north-central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south-central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2016

Temporal and spatial trends in nutrient and sediment loading to Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada, USA

Since 1980, the Lake Tahoe Interagency Monitoring Program (LTIMP) has provided stream-discharge and water quality data—nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment—at more than 20 stations in Lake Tahoe Basin streams. To characterize the temporal and spatial patterns in nutrient and sediment loading to the lake, and improve the usefulness of the program and the existing database, we have (1) identified and corrected for sources of bias in the water quality database; (2) generated synthetic datasets for sediments and nutrients, and resampled to compare the accuracy and precision of different load calculation models; (3) using the best models, recalculated total annual loads over the period of record; (4) regressed total loads against total annual and annual maximum daily discharge, and tested for time trends in the residuals; (5) compared loads for different forms of N and P; and (6) tested constituent loads against land use-land cover (LULC) variables using multiple regression. The results show (1) N and P loads are dominated by organic N and particulate P; (2) there are significant long-term downward trends in some constituent loads of some streams; and (3) anthropogenic impervious surface is the most important LULC variable influencing water quality in basin streams. Many of our recommendations for changes in water quality monitoring and load calculation methods have been adopted by the LTIMP.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2025

Trends in richness and occupancy of Ugandan birds and relation to local tree cover

Changes in vegetation cover are occurring across sub-Saharan Africa and can have substantial effects on ecological communities, but limited data make understanding status and trends difficult for many taxa. We surveyed birds for several decades across Uganda using point counts. Using time-to-detection analysis in a trait-informed Bayesian multi-species occupancy framework, we model bird species richness as a function of year and local tree cover across 28 sites. We test for trends in richness and occupancy, and for the relationship between these and local and landscape-scale tree cover. Species richness increased at 75% of sites through the study period, and generalist bird species were most likely to be increasing in occupancy. Forest specialist bird species, and to a lesser extent generalists, responded positively to tree cover. Woody cover is changing across Uganda, with declines most pronounced in areas with the highest tree cover. This is likely to be causing declines in forest specialist species while favouring generalists. When tree cover decline is caused by conversion to croplands, rather than transitions to grasslands, grassland specialists are unlikely to benefit. Effects of climate and land use change and population pressure are likely to continue to alter woody plant cover and thus affect East African bird communities.

African Journal of Ecology↗
USGS2024

Life-history connections to long-term fish population trends in a species-rich temperate river

Fishes exhibit a diverse range of traits encompassing life-history strategies, feeding behaviours and spawning behaviours. These traits mediate fish population responses to changing environmental conditions such as those caused by anthropogenic stressors. The Conasauga River, located in northwestern Georgia and southeastern Tennessee, USA, hosts a diverse assemblage of over 75 species of freshwater fish, some of which are locally or regionally endemic, and many of which are imperilled. Annual monitoring data have shown population declines in multiple fish species of conservation concern in the Conasauga River since at least the 1990s, raising the possibility that other taxa could be declining as well. We quantified temporal changes in fish communities at six shoal sites sampled annually in most years from 1996 to 2022, and asked whether species traits hypothesized to underlie population vulnerability to environmental alteration were correlated with species-specific trends for 32 taxa. We estimated that total counts of fish in annual samples declined by ~2% per year, although declines were uneven among species and generally greater for less abundant taxa. Tests for species traits corresponding to temporal population trends provided evidence that crevice-spawning minnows and smaller-bodied taxa had steeper declines compared with broadcast spawners and larger, longer-lived, more fecund taxa. Lower abundance, reliance on a particular habitat feature, and life-history traits that may limit population resilience to disturbance may all prove useful for identifying riverine fishes at particular risk of future population decline.

Georgia↗
USGS2012

Worldwide trends in fishing interest indicated by Internet search volume

There is a growing body of literature that shows internet search volume on a topic, such as fishing, is a viable measure of salience. Herein, internet search volume for 'fishing' and 'angling' is used as a measure of public interest in fishing, in particular, recreational fishing. An online tool, Google Insights for Search, which allows one to study internet search terms and their volume since 2004, is used to examine trends in interest in fishing for 50 countries. Trends in normalised fishing search volume, during 2004 through 2011, varied from a 72.6% decrease (Russian Federation) to a 133.7% increase (Hungary). Normalised fishing search volume declined in 40 (80%) of the countries studied. The decline has been relatively large in English-speaking countries, but also has been large in Central and South American, and European countries. Analyses of search queries provide a low-cost means of gaining insight into angler interests and, possibly, behaviour in countries around the world.

Fisheries Management and Ecology↗
USGS2023

Evaluating population trends of juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon at low abundance in a dynamic estuarine environment (Hudson River, New York)

Evaluating population trends in dynamic estuarine environments can be challenging, especially when survey data include a high percentage of zero observations. In fishery-independent surveys, zeros that come from reduced susceptibility to sample gears and reduced availability of the population to the survey impact survey catchability and negatively bias relative abundance indices. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to standardize a juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon ( Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus ) relative abundance index (Hudson River, New York) that included a high proportion (42%) of zero observations and intra- and interannually variable covariates. Reduced susceptibility was related to low water temperature, with the percentage of zeroes increasing rapidly below 7°C. Availability was influenced by temperature and distance to salt front, as catch rates increased with temperature and peaked in mesohaline waters ~27 km downstream of the predicted salt front. An alternative index suggested significant population growth ( r = 0.15; p -value = 0.007) occurred from 2004 to 2015. The zero-inflated model helped better understand Hudson River juvenile Atlantic Sturgeon ecology and relative trends in abundance, to better inform future management and monitoring decisions along the Atlantic Coast.

New York↗