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Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

Ecosystems can show sudden and persistent changes in state despite only incremental changes in drivers. Such critical transitions are difficult to predict, because the state of the system often shows little change before the transition. Early-warning indicators (EWIs) are hypothesized to signal the loss of system resilience and have been shown to precede critical transitions in theoretical models, paleo-climate time series, and in laboratory as well as whole lake experiments. The generalizability of EWIs for detecting critical transitions in empirical time series of natural aquatic ecosystems remains largely untested, however. Here we assessed four commonly used EWIs on long-term datasets of five freshwater ecosystems that have experienced sudden, persistent transitions and for which the relevant ecological mechanisms and drivers are well understood. These case studies were categorized by three mechanisms that can generate critical transitions between alternative states: competition, trophic cascade, and intraguild predation. Although EWIs could be detected in most of the case studies, agreement among the four indicators was low. In some cases, EWIs were detected considerably ahead of the transition. Nonetheless, our results show that at present, EWIs do not provide reliable and consistent signals of impending critical transitions despite using some of the best routinely monitored freshwater ecosystems. Our analysis strongly suggests that a priori knowledge of the underlying mechanisms driving ecosystem transitions is necessary to identify relevant state variables for successfully monitoring EWIs.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Nitrogen-15 NMR study on the incorporation of nitrogen into aquatic NOM upon chloramination

Chloramination is being used increasingly in water treatment to lower the formation of regulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs). How monochloramine nitrogen becomes incorporated into aquatic natural organic matter (NOM) and potentially affects the formation of nitrogenous DBPs is an unresolved question in the chemistry of humic substances. To address the problem, Suwannee River NOM and Suwannee River fulvic acid were reacted with preformed 15 NH 2 Cl and analyzed by solid and liquid state 15 N NMR spectrometry. Both samples were also reacted with 15 NH 4 Cl as a control. A majority of the monochloramine nitrogen incorporated into the samples matched the structural forms resulting from the control reaction with ammonia, indicating that condensation reactions of ammonia with the carbonyl functionality can partly explain the transformation of the 15 NH 2 Cl nitrogen into the NOM. These structural forms include aminohydroquinone, 1° amide, indole, and pyridine-like nitrogens. Spectra of the samples reacted with 15 NH 2 Cl also showed possible evidence for nitrosophenol nitrogens, which would arise from the reaction of hydroxylamine or nitrite, intermediates in the chemical oxidation of the inorganic nitrogen to nitrate.

Aquatic Sciences↗

Challenges in the interpretation of anticoagulant rodenticide residues and toxicity in predatory and scavenging birds

Anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) are part of the near billion-dollar rodenticide industry. Numerous studies have documented the presence of ARs in non-target wildlife, with evidence of repeated exposure to second-generation ARs. While birds are generally less sensitive to ARs than target rodent species, in some locations predatory and scavenging birds are exposed by consumption of such poisoned prey, and depending on dose and frequency of exposure, exhibit signs of intoxication that can result in death. Evidence of hemorrhage in conjunction with summed hepatic AR residues >0.1 to 0.2 mg/kg liver wet weight are often used as criteria to diagnose ARs as the likely cause of death. In this review focusing on birds of prey and scavengers, we discuss AR potency, coagulopathy, toxicokinetics and long-lasting effects of residues, the role of nutrition and vitamin K status on toxicity, and identify some research needs. A more complete understanding of the factors affecting AR toxicity in non-target wildlife would enable regulators and natural resource managers to better predict and even mitigate risk.

Pest Management Science↗

Acoustic telemetry as a potential tool for mixed-stock analysis of fishery harvest: A feasibility study using Lake Erie walleye

Understanding stock composition is critical for sustainable management of mixed-stock fisheries. When natural markers routinely used for stock discrimination fail, alternative techniques are required. We investigated the feasibility of using acoustic telemetry to estimate spawning population contributions to a mixed-stock fishery using Lake Erie’s summer walleye (Sander vitreus) recreational fishery as a case study. Postrelease survival was estimated after tagging and used to inform simulations to evaluate how contribution estimates could be affected by survival, sample size, and expected population contributions. Walleye experienced low short-term survival after tagging, but showed higher survival after 100 days, likely allowing fish to return to spawning areas the following spring. Based on simulations, accuracy and precision of population composition increased with an increase in the number of tagged fish released, and both appeared to stabilize when ≥200 tagged fish were released. Results supported the feasibility of using acoustic telemetry to estimate spawning population contributions to mixed-stock fisheries in Lake Erie.

Michigan, Ohio↗

The genetic composition of wild recruits in a recovering lake trout population in Lake Michigan

Strain performance evaluations are vital for developing successful fishery management and restoration strategies. Here, we utilized genotypes from 36 microsatellites to investigate hatchery strain contribution to collections of naturally produced lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) sampled across Lake Michigan. Strain composition varied by area, with recoveries of Seneca Lake strain exceeding expectations based on stocking records in northern Lake Michigan but performing similarly to other strains in southern Lake Michigan. Interstrain hybrids were present at moderate frequencies similar to expectations based on simulations, suggesting that strains are interbreeding randomly. We hypothesize that the superior performance of the Seneca Lake strain in northern Lake Michigan is partially due to adaptive advantages that facilitate increased survival in areas with high mortality from sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predation, such as northern Lake Michigan. However, when this selective pressure is lessened, the Seneca Lake strain performs similarly to other strains. Our study demonstrates that strain performance can vary across small spatial scales and illustrates the importance of conducting thorough strain evaluations to inform management and conservation.

Lake Michigan↗

Assessing the distribution and habitat needs of the Least Darter and sympatric species of the Ozark and Arbuckle Mountain ecoregions

Limited information is known about factors driving the distribution of Least Darter in Oklahaoma. The Least Darter occurs in the Ozark Highland and Arbuckle Uplift ecoregions of Oklahoma which represent the southern extent of its range. Least Darter was historically recorded in Oklahoma from groundwater-fed streams. Our study objectives were to determine the distribution of Least Darter and a subset of congeners across the two ecoregions of Oklahoma and assess factors driving patch occupancy of Least Darter at a fine spatial scale. We used temporally replicated snorkel surveys conducted in July through October 2018-2019 to determine occupany by Least Darter. We snorkeled and seined for four species in each reach including two life stages of Smallmouth Bass (subadult and adult). We sampled 153 sites (i.e., riffle-pool complexes) nested within 61 stream reaches (i.e., 200-500-m long) in the Arbuckle Uplift and Ozark Highland ecoregions. Detection probability was similar between ecoregions. Least Darter was detected at more sites when snorkeling compared to seining (24 versus 18). Smallmouth Bass, Redspot Chub and Southern Redbelly Dace were typically 2-3 times more likely to be detected by snorkeling than by seining. We found relationships between occupancy and habitat parameters that were both shared among species but also species-specific. Least Darter occurrence probability in the Ozark Highlands was lower than in the Arbuckle Uplift. Occurrence probability was higher for subadult Smallmouth Bass and Southern Redbelly Dace in 2018 compared to 2019. Occurrence probabilities of both Least Darter and Southern Redbelly Dace were higher in cooler habitat patches. Southern Redbelly Dace was negatively associated with a higher proportion of pool habitat across a reach. Lastly, subadult Smallmouth Bass and Redspot Chub were more likely to occur in deeper pools and in larger streams (i.e., drainage area). We sampled one study reach (~150-m long with shallow riffles or a waterfall on each end) in the Arbuckle Uplift (winter and summer sampling) and Ozark Highland (winter sampling) ecoregions to determine fine-scale habitat selection during the thermally harsh seasons. We developed transects across the reaches to quantify depth, velocity, substrate, cover and water temperature. We found Least Darter used higher water column velocities and shallower water depths with little vegetation during the winter. The average water depth used was similar during summer and winter (~ 20 cm deep). Least Darter used denser vegetation during the summer and tended to avoid coarse substrates in both seasons. If the conservation of Least Darter is a management goal, actions to mitigate increasing stream water temperatures (e.g., protection of springs and riparian corridors) and protecting stream morphologies that facilitate species separations (i.e., allow for a wide range of water depth and velocities) may be beneficial (e.g., fencing cattle from streams, promoting natural bankful flows during spring)

Oklahoma↗

Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?

In the United States, estimation of flood frequency quantiles at ungauged locations has been largely based on regional regression techniques that relate measurable catchment descriptors to flood quantiles. More recently, spatial interpolation techniques of point data have been shown to be effective for predicting streamflow statistics (i.e., flood flows and low-flow indices) in ungauged catchments. Literature reports successful applications of two techniques, canonical kriging, CK (or physiographical-space-based interpolation, PSBI), and topological kriging, TK (or top-kriging). CK performs the spatial interpolation of the streamflow statistic of interest in the two-dimensional space of catchment descriptors. TK predicts the streamflow statistic along river networks taking both the catchment area and nested nature of catchments into account. It is of interest to understand how these spatial interpolation methods compare with generalized least squares (GLS) regression, one of the most common approaches to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. By means of a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the performance of CK and TK was compared to GLS regression equations developed for the prediction of 10, 50, 100 and 500 yr floods for 61 streamgauges in the southeast United States. TK substantially outperforms GLS and CK for the study area, particularly for large catchments. The performance of TK over GLS highlights an important distinction between the treatments of spatial correlation when using regression-based or spatial interpolation methods to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. The analysis also shows that coupling TK with CK slightly improves the performance of TK; however, the improvement is marginal when compared to the improvement in performance over GLS.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Age and growth of the rock bass, Ambloplites rupestris (Rafinesque), in Nebish Lake, Wisconsin

The present study of the age and growth of the Nebish Lake rock bass is another in a series of papers that have been based wholly or in part on materials collected in the course of investigations on the fishes of the lakes of the northeastern highlands, Wisconsin, conducted cooperatively by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and the United States Bureau of Fisheries over the periods, 1927-1928 and 1930-1932. The publications have included studies of the age and growth of the rock bass (Wright, 1929), whitefish (Hile and Deason, 1934), yellow perch (Schneberger, 1935), cisco (Hile, 1936a), muskellunge (Schloemer, 1936, 1938), largemouth black bass (Bennett, 1937), common sucker (Spoor, 1938), and smalimouth black bass (Bennett, 1938). A total of five mimeographed reports on the growth of game fish in Wisconsin has been issued by Juday and Schneberger (1930, 1933), Juday and Bennett (1935), and Juday and Schloemer (1936,. 1938). In addition there have appeared two publications on the morphometry of the cisco (Hile 193Gb, 1937), three dealing with the parasites of fishes in the region (Cross 1934, 1935, 1938) and one on the food of fishes (Couey, 1935). A paper by Hile and Juday on the bathymetric distribution of fish will appear simultaneously with the present study of the rock bass. A contribution on the growth of the bluegill by Schloemer will be published in the near future.

Transactions of the Wisconsin Academy of Sciences,↗

Nest predation increases with parental activity: Separating nest site and parental activity effects

Alexander Skutch hypothesized that increased parental activity can increase the risk of nest predation. We tested this hypothesis using ten open-nesting bird species in Arizona, USA. Parental activity was greater during the nestling than incubation stage because parents visited the nest frequently to feed their young during the nestling stage. However, nest predation did not generally increase with parental activity between nesting stages across the ten study species. Previous investigators have found similar results. We tested whether nest site effects might yield higher predation during incubation because the most obvious sites are depredated most rapidly. We conducted experiments using nest sites from the previous year to remove parental activity. Our results showed that nest sites have highly repeatable effects on nest predation risk; poor nest sites incurred rapid predation and caused predation rates to be greater during the incubation than nestling stage. This pattern also was exhibited in a bird species with similar (i.e. controlled) parental activity between nesting stages. Once nest site effects are taken into account, nest predation shows a strong proximate increase with parental activity during the nestling stage within and across species. Parental activity and nest sites exert antagonistic influences on current estimates of nest predation between nesting stages and both must be considered in order to understand current patterns of nest predation, which is an important source of natural selection.

Arizona↗

Removal of inorganic mercury and methylmercury from surface waters following coagulation of dissolved organic matter with metal-based salts

The presence of inorganic mercury (IHg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in surface waters is a health concern worldwide. This study assessed the removal potential use of metal-based coagulants as a means to remove both dissolved IHg and MeHg from natural waters and provides information regarding the importance of Hg associations with the dissolved organic matter (DOM) fraction and metal hydroxides. Previous research indicated coagulants were not effective at removing Hg from solution; however these studies used high concentrations of Hg and did not reflect naturally occurring concentrations of Hg. In this study, water collected from an agricultural drain in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta was filtered to isolate the dissolved organic matter (DOM) fraction. The DOM was then treated with a range of coagulant doses to determine the efficacy of removing all forms of Hg from solution. Three industrial-grade coagulants were tested: ferric chloride, ferric sulfate, and polyaluminum chloride. Coagulation removed up to 85% of DOM from solution. In the absence of DOM, all three coagulants released IHg into solution, however in the presence of DOM the coagulants removed up to 97% of IHg and 80% of MeHg. Results suggest that the removal of Hg is mediated by DOM-coagulant interactions. There was a preferential association of IHg with the more aromatic, higher molecular weight fraction of DOM but no such relationship was found for MeHg. This study offers new fundamental insights regarding large-scale removal of Hg at environmentally relevant regarding large-scale removal of Hg at environmentally relevant concentrations.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Historical trends in organochlorine compounds in river basins identified using sediment cores from reservoirs

This study used chemical analyses of dated sediment cores from reservoirs to define historical trends in water quality in the influent river basins. This work applies techniques from paleolimnology to reservoirs, and in the process, highlights differences between sediment-core interpretations for reservoirs and natural lakes. Sediment cores were collected from six reservoirs in the central and southeastern United States, sectioned, and analyzed for 137Cs and organochlorine compounds. 137Cs analyses were used to demonstrate limited post-depositional mixing, to indicate sediment deposition dates, and to estimate sediment focusing factors. Relative lack of mixing, high sedimentation rates, and high focusing factors distinguish reservoir sediment cores from cores collected in natural lakes. Temporal trends in concentrations of PCBs, total DDT (DDT + DDD + DDE), and chlordane reflect historical use and regulation of these compounds and differences in land use between reservoir drainages. PCB and total DDT core burdens, normalized for sediment focusing, greatly exceed reported cumulative regional atmospheric fallout of PCBs and total DDT estimated using cores from peat hogs and natural lakes, indicating the dominance of fluvial inputs of both groups of compounds to the reservoirs.This study used chemical analyses of dated sediment cores from reservoirs to define historical trends in water quality in the influent river basins. This work applies techniques from paleolimnology to reservoirs, and in the process, highlights differences between sediment-core interpretations for reservoirs and natural lakes. Sediment cores were collected from six reservoirs in the central and southeastern United States, sectioned, and analyzed for 137Cs and organochlorine compounds. 137Cs analyses were used to demonstrate limited post-depositional mixing, to indicate sediment deposition dates, and to estimate sediment focusing factors. Relative lack of mixing, high sedimentation rates, and high focusing factors distinguish reservoir sediment cores from cores collected in natural lakes. Temporal trends in concentrations of PCBs, total DOT (DDT+DDD+DDE), and chlordane reflect historical use and regulation of these compounds and differences in land use between reservoir drainages. PCB and total DDT core burdens, normalized for sediment focusing, greatly exceed reported cumulative regional atmospheric fallout of PCBs and total DDT estimated using cores from peat bogs and natural lakes, indicating the dominance of fluvial inputs of both groups of compounds to the reservoirs.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Evaluation of measurement scale using imbibition experiments in volcanic tuffs

A major issue in the site characterization at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository, is the relevance of laboratory-scale measurements on cores to field-scale processes, particularly water flow. Calculation of Philip`s sorptivity parameter using imbibition of water into rock was selected as a simple test to describe hydrologic parameters at both laboratory and field scales and to study effects of sample size and spatial variability. Laboratory-scale imbibition experiments were conducted on two sizes of core from two boreholes drilled in layered nonwelded tuff and fractured welded tuff. Laboratory experiments were compared with field experiments in the boreholes using neutron logs and a field-scale Mariotte system. Measured sorptivity for both sizes of core were virtually identical and both could predict field-scale sorptivity if enough samples were used to account for spatial heterogeneity. Core data was less useful in predicting the neutron log data due to the nature of the neutron probe measurement and difficulties in accounting for effects of the unique system geometry. Mean neutron log values could not predict the field results from the welded borehole due to fractures transmitting but not retaining water, and could not predict laboratory results because of scale and sampling volume differences. The mean neutron log data could, however, approximate the large-scale field results in the nonwelded borehole.

Nevada↗

Value of information and decision pathways: Concepts and case studies

Information used in decision making arises from the structuring of observations and data. The collection, dissemination, and use of information has monetary and non-monetary costs (e.g., competition for attention) and necessitates trade-offs. Understanding the benefits of having information (i.e., the value of information, VOI), including resulting societal outcomes, is useful to information producers/funders and decision makers. Using theory, use cases, and hypotheticals, we describe how information (e.g., geospatial information) is valued and incorporated in decisions and actions related to managing natural resources, environments, and the impacts of natural and anthropogenic hazards. We discuss the nature of information and how it relates to models (conceptual, mental, scientific), beliefs, knowledge, and economic analyses. VOI approaches and behavioral factors that potentially affect information use and value are summarized. Framing of information and VOI through data to decision pathways (DDPs) at first simplifies understanding, then illustrates the benefits of information, and the human and societal challenges encountered in valuing and using it. We present approaches to overcome these challenges. Our transdisciplinary analysis concludes with a summary of critical issues affecting DDPs and VOI, and suggestions for improving both economic analyses and the actionability and use of information.

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Environmental ↗

Chesapeake Bay recovery and factors affecting trends: Long-termmonitoring, indicators, and insights

Monitoring the outcome of restoration efforts is the only way to identify the status of a recovery and the most effective management strategies. In this paper, we discuss Chesapeake Bay and watershed recovery and factors influencing water quality trends. For over 30 years, the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership’s long-term tidal and watershed water quality monitoring networks have measured physical, chemical and biological parameters throughout the bay and its surrounding watershed underpinning an adaptive management process to drive ecosystem recovery. There are many natural and anthropogenic factors operating and interacting to affect the watershed and bay water quality recovery responses to management actions. Across habitats and indicators, the bay and its watershed continue to express a diverse spatial and temporal fabric of multiscale conditions, stressors and trends that show a range of health conditions and impairment s , as well as evidence of progress and degradation. Recurrent independent reviews of the monitoring program have driven a culture of continued adaptation of the monitoring networks to reflect ever evolving management information needs. The adherence to bay and watershed-wide consistent monitoring protocols provides monitoring data supporting analyses and development of scientific syntheses that underpin indicator and model development, regulatory assessments, targeting of management actions, evaluation of management effectiveness, and directing of priorities and policies.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

Concentrations of lead and other inorganic constituents in samples of raw intake and treated drinking water from the municipal water filtration plant and residential tapwater in Chicago, Illinois, and East Chicago, Indiana, July–December 2017

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Environmental Health Mission Area (EHMA) is providing comprehensive science on sources, movement, and transformation of contaminants and pathogens in watershed and aquifer drinking-water supplies and in built water and wastewater infrastructure (referred to as the USGS Water and Wastewater Infrastructure project) in the Greater Chicago Area and elsewhere in the United States, to fill data gaps identified by stakeholders and collaborators in drinking water and public health. EHMA Water and Wastewater Infrastructure research specifically provides insight into natural factors in the environment as well as those water-infrastructure components and processes (such as source-water corrosivity, treatment, plumbing, and so forth) that might influence human exposure to chemical and microbial contaminants at the residential tap. This infrastructure-exposure research role is fulfilled uniquely by the USGS and not by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), other agencies, or municipalities that focus on regulatory and policy activities and related compliance. The USGS approach to assessing the possible links between human health and chemical contaminant and pathogen exposure in drinking water is conducted in collaboration with public health experts and includes comprehensive characterization of the presence/absence and concentrations of more than 500 organic and 27 inorganic chemical constituents at the point of use (tap). Laboratory results for lead and other inorganic contaminants in Chicago, Illinois, and East Chicago, Indiana, residential tapwater are being released to ensure the timely release of quality-assured data to participants in the study. Concentrations of lead and other inorganic constituents were assessed in drinking water at the point of use (kitchen tap or filter) in 45 residential locations and in two locations within each of the two Chicago water purification plants and the two East Chicago water filtration plants during July–December 2017. Three methods were used for analyzing lead. The most sensitive method had a reporting limit of 0.020 micrograms per liter (µg/L). When using the most sensitive analytical method, lead was detected in 39 of 45 residential tapwater samples, with concentrations ranging from less than 0.020 µg/L to 5.31 µg/L (median of the detected values = 0.481 µg/L). Concentrations of lead also were detected in Lake Michigan intake water at all water purification/filtration plant facilities at concentrations ranging from 0.083 to 0.330 µg/L, but were not detected above the reporting limit in any samples of treated, pre-distribution drinking water at any of the water purification/filtration plant facilities. Because the USGS Water and Wastewater Infrastructure project in the Greater Chicago Area is focused on the potential human exposure to a broad suite of organic and inorganic contaminants in drinking water and is not focused specifically on lead, the sampling protocol did not include “first-draw,” stagnant sampling and samples were collected with point-of-use treatment in place, if present. Thus, the lead results reported herein are not appropriate for assessment of compliance with the EPA 1991 Lead and Copper Rule. Information resources for lead mitigation and water filtration are provided.

Illinois, Indiana↗

Saharan dust nutrients promote Vibrio bloom formation in marine surface waters

Vibrio is a ubiquitous genus of marine bacteria, typically comprising a small fraction of the total microbial community in surface waters, but capable of becoming a dominant taxon in response to poorly characterized factors. Iron (Fe), often restricted by limited bioavailability and low external supply, is an essential micronutrient that can limit Vibrio growth. Vibrio species have robust metabolic capabilities and an array of Fe-acquisition mechanisms, and are able to respond rapidly to nutrient influx, yet Vibrio response to environmental pulses of Fe remains uncharacterized. Here we examined the population growth of Vibrio after natural and simulated pulses of atmospherically transported Saharan dust, an important and episodic source of Fe to tropical marine waters. As a model for opportunistic bacterial heterotrophs, we demonstrated that Vibrio proliferate in response to a broad range of dust-Fe additions at rapid timescales. Within 24 h of exposure, strains of Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio alginolyticus were able to directly use Saharan dust–Fe to support rapid growth. These findings were also confirmed with in situ field studies; arrival of Saharan dust in the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic coincided with high levels of dissolved Fe, followed by up to a 30-fold increase of culturable Vibrio over background levels within 24 h. The relative abundance of Vibrio increased from ∼1 to ∼20% of the total microbial community. This study, to our knowledge, is the first to describe Vibrio response to Saharan dust nutrients, having implications at the intersection of marine ecology, Fe biogeochemistry, and both human and environmental health.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) affects vegetation more than seed banks in mixed-grass prairies of the Northern Great Plains

Exotic plants have the ability to modify soil seed banks in habitats they invade, but little is known about the legacy of invasion on seed banks once an exotic plant has successfully been controlled. Natural areas previously invaded by leafy spurge in the northern Great Plains typically have one of two fates following its removal: a return of native plants, or a secondary invasion of other exotic plants. It is unknown, however, if this difference in plant communities following leafy spurge control is due to seed bank differences. To answer this question, we monitored seed banks and standing vegetation for 2 yr in mixed-grass prairies that were previously invaded by leafy spurge but controlled within 5 yr of our study. We found that native plant seed banks were largely intact in areas previously invaded by leafy spurge, regardless of the current living plant community, and leafy spurge invasion history had a larger impact on cover and diversity of the vegetation than on the seed banks. Differences in plant communities following leafy spurge control do not appear to be related to the seed banks, and soil conditions may be more important in determining trajectories of these postinvasion communities.

North Dakota↗

Woody encroachment in northern Great Plains grasslands: Perceptions, actions, and needs

The United States Northern Great Plains (NGP) has a high potential for landscape-scale conservation, but this grassland landscape is threatened by encroachment of woody species. We surveyed NGP land managers to identify patterns in, and illustrate a broad range of, individual managers' perceptions on (1) the threat of woody encroachment to grasslands they manage, and (2) what management practices they use that may influence woody encroachment in this region. In the 34 surveys returned, which came from predominantly public lands in the study area, 79% of responses reported moderate or substantial woody encroachment. Eastern redcedar ( Juniperus virginiana ) and Rocky Mountain juniper ( Juniperus scopulorum ) were the most problematic encroachers. Thirty-one survey respondents said that prescribed fire was used on the lands they manage, and 64% of these responses reported that controlling woody encroachment was a fire management objective. However, only 18% of survey respondents using prescribed fire were achieving their desired fire return interval. Most respondents reported using mechanical and/or chemical methods to control woody species. In contrast to evidence from the central and southern Great Plains, few survey respondents viewed grazing as affecting encroachment. Although the NGP public land managers we surveyed clearly recognize woody encroachment as a problem and are taking steps to address it, many feel that the rate of their management is not keeping pace with the rate of encroachment. Developing strategies for effective woody plant control in a variety of NGP management contexts requires filling ecological science gaps and overcoming societal barriers to using prescribed fire.

Natural Areas Journal↗