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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, Part 2: Rupture parameters and variability

We used a combination of 3D finite‐difference simulations ( &lt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; Hz "> < 1 Hz ) and 1D stochastic synthetics ( &gt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; Hz "> > 1 Hz ) to generate broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for numerous M w "> Mw 9 earthquake rupture scenarios on the Cascadia megathrust. Slip consists of multiple high‐stress‐drop subevents ( M w "> Mw 8) with short rise times on the deeper portions of the fault, superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. We identify key rupture parameters that control the intensity of ground shaking and resulting seismic hazard; these include the hypocenter location, the down‐dip limit of slip, the average rupture velocity, and the character (i.e., location, magnitude, and stress drop) of subevents. Extending the down‐dip limit of rupture to the top of the nonvolcanic tremor zone results in localized regions with a factor of 5–10 increase in spectral acceleration (SA) for periods &lt; 5 &#x2009;&#x2009; s "> <5 s , compared to a rupture that is completely offshore. This is primarily due to the closer proximity of high‐stress‐drop subevents to inland locations when the rupture is allowed to extend deeper. Similarly, we find that the hypocenter location can result in a variation in the intensity of ground motions of a factor of &gt; 10 "> >10 , due to the effects of rupture directivity (i.e., SA at periods &gt; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; s "> >1 s ). We also observe a coupling between rupture directivity and basin amplification. The intensity of ground motions is also strongly affected by the magnitude, stress drop, and location of high‐stress‐drop subevents, which are poorly constrained. Overall, our results quantify the effect of kinematic rupture parameters on ground motions for an M w "> Mw 9 earthquake in Cascadia and emphasize the need for further constraints on these parameters to improve seismic hazard estimates in the Pacific Northwest.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2018

Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results

We have produced a large set of broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite‐difference simulations ( ⁠≤1 Hz⁠ ) with finite‐source, stochastic synthetics ( ⁠≥1 Hz⁠ ). We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop M w 8 subevents superimposed on large, shallower slip with long‐slip duration, informed by observations of the M w 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, and M w 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquakes. Thirty 3D simulations were run, considering a variety of rupture parameters, to determine the range of expected ground motions. For sites not in sedimentary basins, the spectral accelerations of the synthetics are similar to the BC Hydro ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for periods of 0.1–6 s, but exceed them at periods greater than 6 s. Response spectra from the synthetics at sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins show large amplifications of factors of 2–5 at periods of 1–10 s. This basin amplification is substantially larger than that found for crustal earthquakes in the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 (NGA‐West2) GMPEs. Basin amplification is caused by basin‐edge generated surface waves and by amplification and focusing of S waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The synthetic seismograms show effective average durations of strong motions of about 70 s for coastal sites, increasing to about 120 s at 200 km distance. We find that the interevent and intraevent standard deviations of the spectral amplitudes of the synthetics are larger for sites closer to the rupture, because they are more sensitive to the location of subevents and rupture directivity.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2019

Combining dynamic rupture simulations with ground motion data to characterize seismic hazard from Mw 3-5.8 earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Many seismically active areas suffer from a lack of near‐source ground‐motion recordings, making ground‐motion prediction difficult at distances within &#x223C; 40 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ∼ 40 km ∼40 km from an earthquake. We aim to aid the development of near‐source ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) by generating synthetic ground‐motion data via simulation. Building on previous work using point‐source moment tensor sources to simulate small ( ⁠ M w "> M w Mw 3–4) earthquakes for a target region encompassing north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas, we perform dynamic rupture simulations of earthquakes up to M w "> M w Mw 5.8. We introduce complexity into the rupture process by adding stochastically generated heterogeneity to initial stress conditions. Our simulated ground‐motion data are added to a catalog of recorded ground‐motion data to construct a composite recorded‐simulated ground‐motion catalog that we use to develop a GMPE for the target region. This procedure can be generalized and used for GMPE development in other regions with near‐source ground‐motion data scarcity, which could directly benefit critical applications such as the National Seismic Hazard Maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2018

Characterizing and imaging sedimentary strata using depth-converted spectral ratios: An example from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the Eastern U.S.

Unconsolidated, near-surface sediments can have a profound influence on the amplitudes and frequencies of ground shaking during earthquakes, and these effects should be accounted for when using amplitude observations for seismic hazard assessments. This study explores methods to use teleseismic arrivals recorded on linear receiver arrays to characterize widespread, shallow sedimentary deposits, including estimation of the velocities, determination of the fundamental resonance peaks, and imaging of the major reflectors. The examples used are the extensive Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) and associated Mississippi Embayment (ME) strata of the Central and Eastern United States. The large contrast in material properties at the bedrock surface beneath these sediments produces a strong fundamental resonance peak in the 0.2 to 4 Hz frequency range, which is estimated here by computing spectral ratios at each receiver site relative to bedrock sites at the ends of the receiver arrays. Sediment thicknesses derived from published contour maps made from drill hole data allow for the computation of average velocities to match the observed frequencies of resonance peaks with theoretical values at each receiver site, with the sloping bedrock surface allowing for computation of an average velocity versus depth function if horizontal layers are assumed. The velocity function is then used to convert the spectral ratios from frequency to depth, resulting in an image of the subsurface similar to that of a seismic reflection profile. The results demonstrate the use of teleseismic signals for characterizing and imaging shallow sedimentary strata.

Atlantic Coastal Plain↗
USGS2018

The 19 September 2017 M 7.1 Puebla‐Morelos earthquake: Spectral ratios confirm Mexico City zoning

One important element of understanding basin response to strong shaking is the analysis of spectral ratios, which may provide information about the dominant frequency of ground motion at specific locations. Spectral ratios computed from accelerations recorded by strong‐motion stations in Mexico City during the mainshock of the 19 September 2017 M "> M M 7.1 Puebla‐Morelos earthquake reveal predominate periods consistent with those mapped in the 2004 Mexican seismic design code. Furthermore, the predominant periods thus computed validate those studies using mainshock and aftershock recordings of the handful strong‐motion stations that recorded the 19 September 1985 M "> M M 8.1 Michoacán earthquake. Even though the number of stations in each of the zones (zones I, II, IIIa, b, c, and d) is not the same, they still allow confirmation of site frequencies (periods) attributable to the specific zones (particularly those in zones IIIa, b, c, and d). Spectral ratios are computed with two different methods: (1) horizontal to horizontal (H/H) ratio of smoothed amplitude spectrum of a horizontal channel in direction X of a station with respect to the smoothed amplitude spectrum of the horizontal channel in the same X direction of a reference stiff soil (or rock) station and (2) horizontal to vertical (H/V) ratio (or also known as the Nakamura method) of both horizontal (H) and vertical (V) channels of the same station. We show a comparison of the identified frequencies (periods) derived by both methods and find they are very similar and in good agreement with those indicated in the zoning maps of Mexico City in the 2004 seismic design code.

Mexico City↗
USGS2018

Evaluation of ground motion models for USGS seismic hazard forecasts: Induced and tectonic earthquakes in the Central and Eastern U.S.

Ground motion model (GMM) selection and weighting introduces a significant source of uncertainty in United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismic hazard models. The increase in moderate moment magnitude induced earthquakes (Mw 4 to 5.8) in Oklahoma and Kansas since 2009, due to increased wastewater injection related to oil and gas production (Keranen et al., 2013; 2014; Weingarten et al., 2015; McNamara et al., 2015a), provides useful near-source (< 40 km) instrumental ground-motion observations for comparisons between central and eastern US (CEUS) induced (Rennolet et al., 2017) and tectonic (Goulet et al., 2014) earthquakes. In this study, we evaluate over 50 GMMs using two well-established probabilistic scoring methods: log likelihood (LLH) (Scherbaum et al., 2004; 2009) and multivariate LLH (MLLH) (Mak et al., 2017). The LLH approach compares the mean and standard deviation (σ) of the observed and modeled ground motions. The MLLH approach advances the LLH method by considering the variability (φ,τ) of multiple correlated variables namely intra- (within) and inter- (between) event residuals. For the probabilistic scoring GMM evaluation methods (LLH, MLLH), we compute horizontal component peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 1s period pseudo spectral acceleration (PSA1.0) total residuals using GMM software (nshmp-haz) recently implemented by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model Project (NSHMP). We observe from LLH and MLLH scores that: 1) newer GMMs with lower standard deviations (σ,φ,τ) score better than older GMMs with higher published uncertainty; 2) 2014 CEUS GMMs score better for CEUS tectonic earthquakes than induced earthquakes; 3) NGA-West2, G17 and A15 GMMs score well for CEUS induced earthquake ground motions; and 4) NGA-East GMMs score well for CEUS tectonic earthquake ground motions. We also use the LLH and MLLH scores to evaluate GMM weights applied in past USGS seismic hazard forecasts and to inform weighting of GMMs in future seismic hazard forecasts.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2018

Intensities, aftershock sequences, and the location of the 1936 Milton‐Freewater earthquake near the Oregon–Washington border, U.S.A.

The epicenter of the 16 July 1936 M "> M M 6 Milton‐Freewater earthquake, also known as the State Line earthquake and the largest historical earthquake in northeastern Oregon or southeastern Washington, is uncertain. Various studies place the epicenter of the earthquake, which was widely felt in eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and northern Idaho, within 30 km of the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. In the absence of reported coseismic surface rupture for the earthquake, we sought to determine which epicentral location is most consistent with the intensity observations and with its aftershock sequence, which lasted for at least 27 months. An epicenter between Umapine and Milton‐Freewater best matches the observations. This location falls within the region that experienced the highest intensities of VII and reported the largest number of aftershocks, compares favorably to the (2018) International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model (ISC‐GEM) epicenter, and is proximal to sites that experienced ground failure and groundwater effects. Modeling of aftershock rates is consistent with this suggested epicenter and with the estimated 10 km long subsurface rupture of the earthquake. This suggested epicenter lies at, or just west of, the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. The elongation of ground failure along the Wallula fault and the aftershock distribution appears more consistent with rupture of the Wallula fault or of a subparallel fault than with rupture of the Hite fault. Rupture on faults to the north or east of the Wallula‐Hite fault intersection is inconsistent with most observations, including the perceived impulsivity of the mainshock.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2018

Sources of long-range anthropogenic noise in southern California and implications for tectonic tremor detection

We study anthropogenic noise sources seen on seismic recordings along the central section of the San Jacinto fault near Anza, southern California. The strongest signals are caused by freight trains passing through the Coachella Valley north of Anza. Train‐induced transients are observed at distances of up to 50 km from the railway, with durations of up to 20 min, and spectra that are peaked between 3 and 5 Hz. Additionally, truck traffic through the Coachella Valley generates a sustained hum with a similar spectral signature as the train transients but with lower amplitude. We also find that wind turbine activity in northern Baja California introduces a seasonal modulation of 1– to 5‐Hz energy across the Anza network. We show that the observed train‐generated transients can be used to constrain shallow attenuation structure at Anza. Using the results from this study as well as available borehole data, we further evaluate the performance of approaches that have been used to detect nonvolcanic tremor at Anza. We conclude that signals previously identified as spontaneous tremor ( Hutchison and Ghosh, 2017 ) were probably generated by other nontectonic sources such as trains.

California↗
USGS2019

Shallow structure and geomorphology along the offshore northern San Andreas Fault, Tomales Point to Fort Ross, California

We mapped a poorly documented 35-km-long section of the northern San Andreas fault zone (NSAF) between Tomales Point and Fort Ross, California. Mapping is largely based on high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (38 fault crossings), multibeam bathymetry, and onshore geology. NSAF strike in this section is nearly parallel to plate motion, characterized by a slight (~2°) northerly (transtensional) bend in the south between Tomales Bay and the Bodega isthmus, and a northwesterly (transpressional) ~5° bend in the north between the Bodega isthmus and Fort Ross. The southern transtensional bend is the northern part of the now-submerged, linear, ~50-km-long and 1- to 2-km-wide, "Tomales-Bodega valley." The valley floor is cut by a complex zone of subparallel, variably continuous fault strands and the deformed valley fill is an inferred mix of late Quaternary marine and nonmarine strata. In the northern part of this elongate valley, Holocene fault offset occurred on two fault strands about 740 m apart. The northern transpressional bend is characterized by narrow, elongate, asymmetric basins containing as much as 56 m of inferred latest Pleistocene to Holocene sediment. Between Bodega Head and Fort Ross, the gently dipping (~0.8°) shelf includes two large (4.8 and 5.9 km2) zones of sediment failure that we speculatively correlate with the 1906 San Francisco NSAF earthquake. Similar sediment-failure zones should be common along offshore reaches of the NSAF and other nearshore fault zones, but have apparent limited preservation potential. Onland geomorphic impacts of the mainly offshore NSAF include: (1) Northward upwarping of uplifted marine terraces in the transpressional zone north of Bodega Bay; and (2) Blocking of littoral sediment transport by uplifts on the west flank of the NSAF at Bodega Head and Tomales Point, resulting in rapidly accreting beaches and large coastal sand dune complexes.

California↗
USGS2019

Rupture branching structure of the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, California earthquake inferred from explosion-generated fault-zone trapped waves

We present evidence for multiple fault branches of the West Napa fault zone (WNFZ) based on fault‐zone trapped waves (FZTWs) generated by two explosions that were detonated within the main surface rupture zone produced by the 24 August 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake. The FZTWs were recorded by a 15‐kilometer‐long dense (100 m spacing) linear seismic array consisting of 155 4.5‐hertz three‐component seismometers that were deployed across the surface ruptures and adjacent faults in Napa Valley in the summer of 2016. The two explosions were located ∼3.5 km north and ∼5 km south of the 2016 recording array. Prominent FZTWs, with large amplitudes and long wavetrains following the P and S waves, are observed on the seismograms. We analyzed FZTW waveforms in both time and frequency domains to characterize the branching structure of subsurface rupture zones along the WNFZ. The 2014 surface rupture zone was ∼12 km in length along the main trace of the WNFZ, which appears to form an ∼400–600‐meter‐wide low‐velocity waveguide to depths in excess of 5–7 km. Seismic velocities within the main rupture are reduced by 40%–50% relative to the surrounding‐rock velocities. Within 1.5 km of the main trace of the WNFZ, there are at least two subordinate fault traces that formed 3‐ to 6‐kilometer‐long surface breaks during the 2014 mainshock. Our modeling suggests that these subordinate fault traces are also low‐velocity waveguides that connect with the main rupture at depths of ∼2–3 km⁠ , forming a flower structure. FZTWs were also recorded at seismic stations across the Carneros fault (CF), which is ∼1 km west of the WNFZ; this suggests that the CF connects with the WNFZ at shallow depths, even though the CF did not experience surface rupture during the 2014 Mw 6.0 mainshock. 3D finite‐difference simulations of recorded FZTWs imply a branching structure along multiple fault strands associated with the WNFZ.

California↗
USGS2019

Ground-motion attenuation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta, California, from 14 Bay Area earthquakes, including the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake

Peak ground motions (acceleration and velocity) radiated by earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area and recorded within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta generally attenuate faster with distance than the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). We evaluate the attenuation for a wide set of paths into the Delta by analyzing recorded ground motions from fourteen 4 ≤ M < 7 earthquakes located on major Bay area faults: the San Andreas, Calaveras, Hayward, West Napa, and Green Valley faults. We select stations within azimuthal ranges of 38°–114° into the Delta and calculate the residuals of the peak ground motions relative to the Boore et al. (2014) GMPEs. We then fit the natural log of these peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity residuals for each earthquake to the function a−krγ, in which a is an event term and krγ is the differential attenuation. Although there is some variation in the differential attenuation obtained for each earthquake, the peak ground motions from most of the 14 events attenuate faster than predicted by the Boore et al. (2014) GMPEs. The differential attenuation does not appear to depend on azimuth or magnitude of the earthquake; however, earthquake depth may have an effect. Our results suggest that attenuation models for the Delta can be significantly improved through regionalization, although this regionalization will increase the model complexity and the epistemic uncertainty.

California↗
USGS2019

Fault slip associated with the 2 September 2017 M 5.3 Sulphur Peak, Idaho, earthquake and aftershock sequence

The 2 September 2017 M 5.3 Sulphur Peak, Idaho, earthquake is one of the largest earthquakes in southern Idaho since the 1983 M 6.9 Borah Peak earthquake. It was followed by a vigorous aftershock sequence for nearly two weeks that included five events above M 4.5. The coseismic and early postseismic deformation was measured with both Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System (GPS), yielding up to 3 cm subsidence southwest of the mainshock epicenter and horizontal motions of &#x223C; 1 &#x2009;&#x2009; mm "> ∼ 1 mm at sites &#x223C; 40 &#x2009;&#x2009; km "> ∼ 40 km east and west of the epicenter. We derive dislocation models of the net slip during the &#x223C; 14 &#x2010; day "> ∼ 14 ‐ day s warm from Sentinel 1A interferograms and GPS offsets, allowing for both fault‐zone collapse and normal faulting to account for the observed geodetic motions. Slip inversions yield several decimeters of normal slip on one or more normal faults near the mainshock hypocenter. Distributed normal slip on a moderately (55°) east‐dipping fault, normal slip on one or more shallowly west‐dipping faults, or a combination thereof explain the data equally well and are difficult to distinguish from one another on the basis of geodetic data alone. Previously mapped regional Sevier‐age thrust structures and later normal faults dip westward, suggesting that the sequence reactivated one or more ancient thrust structures with normal slip. If a moderately east‐dipping fault accommodated substantial slip, it would imply a nascent fault structure that cuts across the reactivated ancient thrust structures. The inferred geodetic moment of 3.02 &#x2013; 4.39 &#xD7; 10 17 &#x2009;&#x2009; N &#xB7; m "> 3.02 – 4.39 × 10 17 N ⋅ m ( ⁠ M w "> M w 5.62–5.73) greatly exceeds the 1.15 &#xD7; 10 17 &#x2009;&#x2009; N &#xB7; m "> 1.15×10 17 N·m ( ⁠ M w "> M w 5.34) seismic moment of the 2 September mainshock, showing that most of the moment release occurred during the aftershock sequence. Up to &#x223C; 0.2 &#x2009;&#x2009; m "> ∼ 0.2 m of fault‐zone collapse may have occurred on a shallow west‐dipping fault, suggesting possible large‐scale expulsion of fluids from the fault zone at depth.

Idaho↗
USGS2019

Characteristics and spatial variability of wind noise on near-surface broadband seismometers

By coupling with the ground, wind causes ground motion that appears on seismic records as noise across a wide bandwidth. This wind-generated noise can drown out important features such as small earthquakes and prevent observation of normal modes from large earthquakes. Because the wind field is heterogeneous at local scales due to structures, diurnal heating, and topography, wind-induced seismic noise may be different on seismometers installed just meters apart. We have investigated the spatial variability of wind-induced noise using two weather sensors separated by approximately ~100 m and co-located with one deep borehole and four near-surface broadband seismometers. We found that at longer periods (>5 s), increasing wind speed causes increases in noise on the horizontal components of seismometers. While this has been previously observed, we also measured a γ2-coherence of less than 0.2 between the wind speed, wind direction, and the pressure recorded by our weather stations. We further observed a loss of coherence between the vertical components of our seismometers from 8 s to 20 s period. The amplitude of the drop-in coherence appears to depend on the substrate surrounding the seismometer. Based on two previously-developed theoretical models, we found that the local material surrounding the sensor could be amplifying the wind-generated noise. We also investigated the frequency dependence of wind-induced noise and found that the dominant source of high-frequency seismic noise at some sites could be anthropogenic rather than induced by wind. Additionally, we estimated the linear relationship between the root mean squares (RMS) of wind speed and RMS seismic velocity for all sensors, finding substantial variability between different installments. A more detailed understanding of the complex processes by which wind-induced noise is generated can inform the installation of sensors and the development of methods for mitigation of these effects, thus improving the overall quality of seismic data.

New Mexico↗
USGS2018

Microseismic events associated with the Oroville Dam spillway

On 14 February 2017, two small (equivalent M D 0.8 and 1.0) seismic events occurred in proximity to the Oroville Dam in the Sierra Nevada foothills, California. To examine possible causal relationships between these events and reservoir operations, including the spillway failure starting prior to these events, we applied a new optimized template matching approach to seismic data between May 1993 - April 2018. We identified more than 19,000 smaller-magnitude events that were similar in character to the February 14 events. These events are located in proximity to the Oroville spillway and occurred in tight temporal clusters that strongly correlate with periods of spillway discharge. Seismic source inversion is inconclusive, but we suggest that these events might be induced by rapid changes in pore pressure along a fracture (or fractures) near the spillway. Cavitation cannot be ruled out, but it is unlikely to be the primary cause of the signals observed because these events are intermittent, impulsive and of short duration. The inferred repetitive opening and closing of the fracture(s) occurred long before any damage to the spillway and is thus probably not directly associated with spillway failure in February 2017. These events were not related to the 1975 M L 5.7 earthquake sequence that may have been induced by the filling of the Oroville reservoir.

California↗
USGS2019

Comparison of site dominant frequency from earthquake and microseismic data in California

An important predictive variable for site amplification is the site dominant frequency ( ⁠ƒ d ⁠ ). At seismic monitoring stations, ƒ d can be calculated from the peak of the horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (HVSRs) obtained from earthquake recordings (eHVSR). For other sites, ƒ d can be estimated from microseismic (mHVSR) observations. We compare the ƒ d values derived from eHVSR (5% damped response spectra from the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 [NGA‐West2] database; Ancheta et al. , 2014 ) with those derived from mHVSR (Fourier spectra from Yong et al. , 2013 ) for seismic stations in California. We show that the logarithm of eHVSR ƒ d scales linearly with the logarithm of mHVSR ƒ d ⁠ , with a standard deviation of 0.14log 10 units for mHVSR ƒ d larger than 0.2 Hz. The relationship holds for microseismic surveys at distances up to 300 m away from the seismic stations. The results of this study have beneficial implications for the characterization of site response in modern ground‐motion models as well as in building codes.

California↗
USGS2019

Improved implementation of rupture location uncertainty in fault displacement hazard assessment

This short note proposes an improvement to the implementation of uncertainty associated with rupture location from future earthquakes in probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis. Location uncertainty leads to nonzero primary fault displacement near a mapped fault. With the improved implementation of location uncertainty, estimated fault displacement hazard at a given site is affected strongly by the dimension of the area considered (or the footprint size of the structure). A larger area near a mapped fault has greater potential of exhibiting primary fault displacement than does a smaller area at the same location. In addition, fault displacement hazard is affected by fault‐map quality and fault‐trace complexity. For a more accurately mapped fault with simpler geometry, larger fault displacement is expected directly over and in close proximity of the mapped fault. If fault location is highly uncertain and fault traces are complex, expected displacement is spread out in a wider zone along the mapped fault.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗