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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Sea-level rise and warming mediate coastal groundwater discharge in the Arctic

Groundwater discharge is an important mechanism through which fresh water and associated solutes are delivered to the ocean. Permafrost environments have traditionally been considered hydrogeologically inactive, yet with accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw, groundwater flow paths are activating and opening subsurface connections to the coastal zone. While warming has the potential to increase land-sea connectivity, sea-level change has the potential to alter land-sea hydraulic gradients and enhance coastal permafrost thaw, resulting in a complex interplay that will govern future groundwater discharge dynamics along Arctic coastlines. Here, we use a recently developed permafrost hydrological model that simulates variable-density groundwater flow and salinity-dependent freeze-thaw to investigate the impacts of sea-level change and land and ocean warming on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and salinity of coastal groundwater discharge. Results project both an increase and decrease in discharge with climate change depending on the rate of warming and sea-level change. Under high warming and low sea-level rise scenarios, results show up to a 58% increase in coastal groundwater discharge by 2100 due to the formation of a supra-permafrost aquifer that enhances freshwater delivery to the coastal zone. With higher rates of sea-level rise, the increase in discharge due to warming is reduced to 21% as sea-level rise decreased land-sea hydraulic gradients. Under lower warming scenarios for which supra-permafrost groundwater flow was not established, discharge decreased by up to 26% between 1980 and 2100 for high sea-level rise scenarios and increased only 8% under low sea-level rise scenarios. Thus, regions with higher warming rates and lower rates of sea-level change (e.g. northern Nunavut, Canada) will experience a greater increase in discharge than regions with lower warming rates and higher rates of sea-level change. The magnitude, location and salinity of discharge have important implications for ecosystem function, water quality, and carbon dynamics in coastal zones.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS1999

Does Europa have a subsurface ocean? Evaluation of the geological evidence

It has been proposed that Jupiter's satellite Europa currently possesses a global subsurface ocean of liquid water. Galileo gravity data verify that the satellite is differentiated into an outer H 2 O layer about 100 km thick but cannot determine the current physical state of this layer (liquid or solid). Here we summarize the geological evidence regarding an extant subsurface ocean, concentrating on Galileo imaging data. We describe and assess nine pertinent lines of geological evidence: impact morphologies, lenticulae, cryovolcanic features, pull‐apart bands, chaos, ridges, surface frosts, topography, and global tectonics. An internal ocean would be a simple and comprehensive explanation for a broad range of observations; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that all of the surface morphologies could be due to processes in warm, soft ice with only localized or partial melting. Two different models of impact flux imply very different surface ages for Europa; the model favored here indicates an average age of ∼50 Myr. Searches for evidence of current geological activity on Europa, such as plumes or surface changes, have yielded negative results to date. The current existence of a global subsurface ocean, while attractive in explaining the observations, remains inconclusive. Future geophysical measurements are essential to determine conclusively whether or not there is a liquid water ocean within Europa today.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS1996

Crustal structure of a transform plate boundary: San Francisco Bay and the central California continental margin

Wide-angle seismic data collected during the Bay Area Seismic Imaging Experiment provide new glimpses of the deep structure of the San Francisco Bay Area Block and across the offshore continental margin. San Francisco Bay is underlain by a veneer (<300 m) of sediments, beneath which P wave velocities increase rapidly from 5.2 km/s to 6.0 km/s at 7 km depth, consistent with rocks of the Franciscan subduction assemblage. The base of the Franciscan at-15-18 km depth is marked by a strong wide-angle reflector, beneath which lies an 8- to 10-km-thick lower crust with an average velocity of 6.75??0.15 km/s. The lower crust of the Bay Area Block may be oceanic in origin, but its structure and reflectivity indicate that it has been modified by shearing and/or magmatic intrusion. Wide-angle reflections define two layers within the lower crust, with velocities of 6.4-6.6 km/s and 6.9-7.3 km/s. Prominent subhorizontal reflectivity observed at near-vertical incidence resides principally in the lowermost layer, the top of which corresponds to the "6-s reflector" of Brocher et al. [1994]. Rheological modeling suggests that the lower crust beneath the 6-s reflector is the weakest part of the lithosphere; the horizontal shear zone suggested by Furlong et al. [1989] to link the San Andreas and Hayward/Calaveras fault systems may actually be a broad zone of shear deformation occupying the lowermost crust. A transect across the continental margin from the paleotrench to the Hayward fault shows a deep crustal structure that is more complex than previously realized. Strong lateral variability in seismic velocity and wide-angle reflectivity suggests that crustal composition changes across major transcurrent fault systems. Pacific oceanic crust extends 40-50 km landward of the paleotrench but, contrary to prior models, probably does not continue beneath the Salinian Block, a Cretaceous arc complex that lies west of the San Andreas fault in the Bay Area. The thickness (10 km) and high lower-crustal velocity of Pacific oceanic crust suggest that it was underplated by magmatism associated with the nearby Pioneer seamount. The Salinian Block consists of a 15-km-thick layer of velocity 6.0-6.2 km/s overlying a 5-km-thick, high-velocity (7.0 km/s) lower crust that may be oceanic crust, Cretaceous arc-derived lower crust, or a magmatically underplated layer. The strong structural variability across the margin attests to the activity of strike-slip faulting prior to and during development of the transcurrent Pacific/North American plate boundary around 29 Ma. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Science of Tsunami Hazards↗
USGS2012

Data-driven modeling of surface temperature anomaly and solar activity trends

A novel two-step modeling scheme is used to reconstruct and analyze surface temperature and solar activity data at global, hemispheric, and regional scales. First, the self-organizing map (SOM) technique is used to extend annual modern climate data from the century to millennial scale. The SOM component planes are used to identify and quantify strength of nonlinear relations among modern surface temperature anomalies (<150 years), tropical and extratropical teleconnections, and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (0–2000 years). Cross-validation of global sea and land surface temperature anomalies verifies that the SOM is an unbiased estimator with less uncertainty than the magnitude of anomalies. Second, the quantile modeling of SOM reconstructions reveal trends and periods in surface temperature anomaly and solar activity whose timing agrees with published studies. Temporal features in surface temperature anomalies, such as the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and Modern Warming Period, appear at all spatial scales but whose magnitudes increase when moving from ocean to land, from global to regional scales, and from southern to northern regions. Some caveats that apply when interpreting these data are the high-frequency filtering of climate signals based on quantile model selection and increased uncertainty when paleoclimatic data are limited. Even so, all models find the rate and magnitude of Modern Warming Period anomalies to be greater than those during the Medieval Warm Period. Lastly, quantile trends among reconstructed equatorial Pacific temperature profiles support the recent assertion of two primary El Niño Southern Oscillation types. These results demonstrate the efficacy of this alternative modeling approach for reconstructing and interpreting scale-dependent climate variables.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2025

Iguanas rafted more than 8,000 km from North America to Fiji

Founder-event speciation can occur when one or more organisms colonize a distant, unoccupied area via long-distance dispersal, leading to the evolution of a new species lineage. Species radiations established by long-distance, and especially transoceanic, dispersal can cause substantial shifts in regional biodiversity. Here, we investigate the occurrence and timing of the greatest known long-distance oceanic dispersal event in the history of terrestrial vertebrates—the rafting of iguanas from North America to Fiji. Iguanas are large-bodied herbivores that are well-known overwater dispersers, including species that colonized the Caribbean and the Galápagos islands. However, the origin of Fijian iguanas had not been comprehensively tested. We estimated the phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary timescale of the iguanid lizard radiation using genome-wide exons and ultraconserved elements (UCEs). Those data indicate that the closest living relative of extant Fijian iguanas is the North American desert iguana and that the two taxa likely diverged during the late Paleogene near or after the onset of volcanism that produced the Fijian archipelago. Biogeographic models estimate North America as the most probable ancestral range of Fijian iguanas. Our analyses support the hypothesis that iguanas reached Fiji via an extraordinary oceanic dispersal event from western North America, and which spanned a fifth of the earth’s circumference (>8,000 km). Overwater rafting of iguanas from North America to Fiji strengthens the importance of founder-event speciation in the diversification of iguanids and elucidates the scope of long-distance dispersal across terrestrial vertebrates.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2008

Increased terrestrial to ocean sediment and carbon fluxes in the northern Chesapeake Bay associated with twentieth century land alteration

We calculated Chesapeake Bay (CB) sediment and carbon fluxes before and after major anthropogenic land clearance using robust monitoring, modeling and sedimentary data. Four distinct fluxes in the estuarine system were considered including (1) the flux of eroded material from the watershed to streams, (2) the flux of suspended sediment at river fall lines, (3) the burial flux in tributary sediments, and (4) the burial flux in main CB sediments. The sedimentary maximum in Ambrosia (ragweed) pollen marked peak land clearance (~1900 a.d.). Rivers feeding CB had a total organic carbon (TOC)/total suspended solids of 0.24??0.12, and we used this observation to calculate TOC fluxes from sediment fluxes. Sediment and carbon fluxes increased by 138-269% across all four regions after land clearance. Our results demonstrate that sediment delivery to CB is subject to significant lags and that excess post-land clearance sediment loads have not reached the ocean. Post-land clearance increases in erosional flux from watersheds, and burial in estuaries are important processes that must be considered to calculate accurate global sediment and carbon budgets. ?? 2008 Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2013

The dilemma of the Jiaodong gold deposits: Are they unique?

The ca. 126–120 Ma Au deposits of the Jiaodong Peninsula, eastern China, define the country's largest gold province with an overall endowment estimated as >3000 t Au. The vein and disseminated ores are hosted by NE- to NNE-trending brittle normal faults that parallel the margins of ca. 165–150 Ma, deeply emplaced, lower crustal melt granites. The deposits are sited along the faults for many tens of kilometers and the larger orebodies are associated with dilatational jogs. Country rocks to the granites are Precambrian high-grade metamorphic rocks located on both sides of a Triassic suture between the North and South China blocks. During early Mesozoic convergent deformation, the ore-hosting structures developed as ductile thrust faults that were subsequently reactivated during Early Cretaceous “Yanshanian” intracontinental extensional deformation and associated gold formation. Classification of the gold deposits remains problematic. Many features resemble those typical of orogenic Au including the linear structural distribution of the deposits, mineralization style, ore and alteration assemblages, and ore fluid chemistry. However, Phanerozoic orogenic Au deposits are formed by prograde metamorphism of accreted oceanic rocks in Cordilleran-style orogens. The Jiaodong deposits, in contrast, formed within two Precambrian blocks approximately 2 billion years after devolatilization of the country rocks, and thus require a model that involves alternative fluid and metal sources for the ores. A widespread suite of ca. 130–123 Ma granodiorites overlaps temporally with the ores, but shows a poor spatial association with the deposits. Furthermore, the deposit distribution and mineralization style is atypical of ores formed from nearby magmas. The ore concentration requires fluid focusing during some type of sub-crustal thermal event, which could be broadly related to a combination of coeval lithospheric thinning, asthenospheric upwelling, paleo-Pacific plate subduction, and seismicity along the continental-scale Tan-Lu fault. Possible ore genesis scenarios include those where ore fluids were produced directly by the metamorphism of oceanic lithosphere and overlying sediment on the subducting paleo-Pacific slab, or by devolatilization of an enriched mantle wedge above the slab. Both the sulfur and gold could be sourced from either the oceanic sediments or the serpentinized mantle. A better understanding of the architecture of the paleo-Pacific slab during Early Cretaceous below the eastern margin of China is essential to determination of the validity of possible models.

Shandong Province↗
USGS2012

The competition between thermal contraction and differentiation in the stress history of the Moon

The scarcity of both extension and compression features on the Moon strongly constrains the history of the lunar radius—to variations of less than ±1 km over the past 3.8 Gyr. This limit has traditionally been interpreted as requiring a delicate balance between thermal contraction of the near‐surface and expansion of a substantial cold interior region. Recent theories of lunar origin (e.g., giant impact), in contrast, favor a “hot” initial state. We propose that a reconciliation may be possible by taking account of the volume change Δ V / V | d due to differentiation. We calculate STP densities based on simplified normative mineralogies for a suite of estimates of the bulk lunar composition, of primary lunar basalt, and of the residuum left when the maximum amount of the latter is extracted from the former. Typically Δ V / V | d ≃ 2 to 5%—an expansion equivalent to heating by ∼10 3 K. Provided the timing of differentiation is correct, one might offset the cooling of a magma ocean as much as 630 km deep by differentiation of the remainder of the Moon (which need not start much below the solidus temperature). A large but not impossible amount of gabbroic melt production is implied: ∼100 times the volume of mare basalts known to have been extruded. We do not address the detailed genetic relationship of this melt to the basalts observed on the lunar surface but point out that it need not have reached the surface directly or even have entered the crust in order for the expansion to have occurred. To assess the timing of melt formation, we investigate a simple conductive lunar thermal model which takes account of both Δ V / V | d and thermal contraction. Our initial state is characterized by a central temperature T c and a depth Z 0 above which the material (derived from the magma ocean) is already at the solidus and is not suceptible to volume changes upon further differentiation. We find a range of models satisfying the limits on radius increase and decrease. The hottest has T c = 1210 K, Z 0 = 400 km; without Δ V / V | d , we would need a larger or colder (or both) core, e.g., T c ≲ 700 K for Z 0 = 200–400 km, in agreement with previous investigators. Our modeling thus lends credence to the idea that the Moon could have been initially ≳50% molten (with the remainder relatively close to the solidus) and yet experienced little volume change over the last 3.8 Gyr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2008

Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs . ∼100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world. While the study revealed the potential of GDAS ETo for large-scale hydrological applications, site-specific use of GDAS ETo in complex hydro-climatic regions such as coastal areas and rugged terrain may require the application of bias correction and/or disaggregation of the GDAS ETo using downscaling techniques.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2012

Statistical averaging of marine magnetic anomalies and the aging of oceanic crust

Visual comparison of Mesozoic and Cenozoic magnetic anomalies in the North Pacific suggests that older anomalies contain less short-wavelength information than younger anomalies in this area. To test this observation, magnetic profiles from the North Pacific are examined from crust of three ages: 0–2.1, 29.3–33.1, and 64.9–70.3 m.y, B.P. For each time period, at least nine profiles were analyzed by (1) calculating the power density spectrum of each profile, (2) averaging the spectra together, and (3) computing a ‘recording filter’ for each time period by assuming a hypothetical seafloor model. The model assumes that the top of the source is acoustic basement, the source thickness is 0.5 km, and the time scale of geomagnetic reversals is according to Ness et al. (1980). The calculated power density spectra of the three recording filters are complex in shape but show an increase of attenuation of short-wavelength information as the crust ages. These results are interpreted using a multilayer model for marine magnetic anomalies in which the upper layer, corresponding to pillow basalt of seismic layer 2A, acts as a source of noise to the magnetic anomalies. As the ocean crust ages, this noisy contribution by the pillow basalts becomes less significant to the anomalies. Consequently, magnetic sources below layer 2A must be faithful recorders of geomagnetic reversals.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS1993

Stable isotope study of fluid inclusions in fluorite from Idaho: Implications for continental climates during the Eocene

Isotopic studies of fluid inclusions from meteoric water-dominated epithermal ore deposits offer a unique opportunity to study paleoclimates because the fluids can provide direct samples of ancient waters. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of meteoric waters vary because of changes in climatic variables such as mean annual temperature of precipitation, relative humidity, origin and history of air masses, and the isotope composition of the oceans. Inclusion fluids found in fluorite (CaF 2 ) are especially useful because their host is devoid of oxygen or hydrogen, thus precluding postentrapment isotope exchange. Fluorite-hosted fluid inclusions from the Eocene (51-50 Ma) epithermal deposits of the Bayhorse mining district, northeastern Idaho, have low salinities, most less than 0.6 equivalent wt% NaCl, and low to moderate homogenization temperatures (98 to 146 °C), indicating meteoric origins for the fluids. Oxygen and hydrogen isotope data on inclusion fluids are almost identical to those of modern meteoric waters in the area. The equivalence of the isotope composition of the Eocene inclusion fluids and modern meteoric waters indicates that the Eocene climatic conditions were similar to those today. This conclusion supports the climate modeling of Sloan and Barron, who suggested that the climates of continental interiors do not reflect the magnitude of warming preserved by the deep-ocean paleoclimate record during the Eocene.

Geology↗
USGS2023

Flushing time variability in a short, low-inflow estuary

Flushing time, the time scale for exchange and mixing between embayed and oceanic waters in an estuary, plays an integral role in determining water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of flushing times throughout Morro Bay, a short, low-inflow estuary (LIE) on the California coast, using a calibrated and validated hydrodynamic model (Delft3D). Morro Bay has historically supported an extensive eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) habitat, which declined substantially from 139 to 5.4 ha during 2007–2017. Eelgrass decline motivated the current research into the role of changing bed roughness and oceanic drivers (i.e., tide and sea-level rise) on estuarine hydrodynamics and flushing times. We found that tidal variability exerts the strongest control on flushing times compared to other effects, i.e., bed roughness or sea-level rise. Additionally, we found that increasing sea level and decreasing bed roughness (associated with declining seagrass coverage) yielded higher rates of mixing (lower flushing times). We detected a strong correspondence between areas having shorter flushing times (e.g., near the estuary mouth) and areas occupied by resilient eelgrass populations in Morro Bay. Our findings further indicated that flushing times in short LIEs are particularly sensitive to several factors (e.g., bed roughness, sea level) that are susceptible to anthropogenic disturbance and future climate change.

California↗
USGS2020

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impacts climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the 20th Century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6; however, confidence in future IOD changes is limited by known biases in model representations of the IOD7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability prior to anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is optimised, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare prior to 1960. However, the strongest event on record (1997) is not unprecedented as at least one event that was approximately 27% to 42% larger occurred naturally during the 17th Century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between variability of the IOD and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterised by weak interannual variability prior to ~1590 CE which likely altered teleconnection patterns, and anomalously strong variability during the 17th Century that was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency for clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal prediction schemes and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability.

Nature↗
USGS2002

A census of marine life: Unknowable or just unknown?

As an introduction to the entire volume, this article outlines the relationships among the five elements of the Census of Marine Life (CoML) that create new knowledge: (1) The Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS), a marine component of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, links marine databases around the world to provide an Internet accessible, dynamic interface for comparing species-level, geo-referenced biodiversity data in relation to ocean habitats. The entire CoML field project data will be managed in and accessible through OBIS. (2) The History of Marine Animal Populations (HMAP) is a unique new synthesis of historical and biological research that will document marine biodiversity, globally, up to 500 years ago, before significant human impact, and store it in formats compatible with modern data in OBIS. (3) The Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research Working Group 118 monitors and recommends advanced marine technologies, ready to be routinely used in CoML field projects. (4) CoML Initial Field Projects develop and calibrate these technologies in selected regions to facilitate and accelerate global biodiversity research. As calibrated technologies and protocols are adopted in many regions, qualitative and quantitative biodiversity discoveries accumulate. (5) The Future of Marine Animal Populations (FMAP) program will insure that the data in OBIS are suitable for modeling and predicting changes in global biodiversity in response to fishing, pollution, and climate change challenges. It will make datasets available for hindcasting and forecasting analyses linked to physical ocean observations and assist in documenting the impacts of conservation efforts on sustainability.

Oceanologica Acta↗
USGS2011

Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km 2 area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m 3 of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m3 of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ~54 million m 3 of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches. SWAN wave modeling illustrates that changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar have altered the alongshore wave energy distribution at adjacent Ocean Beach, and thus may be a significant factor in a persistent beach erosion ‘hot spot’ occurring in the area. Shoreline change analyses show that the sandy shoreline in the shadow of the ebb-tidal delta experienced long-term (1850s/1890s to 2002) and short-term (1960s/1980s to 2002) accretion while the adjacent sandy shoreline exposed to open-ocean waves experienced long-term and short-term erosion. Therefore, the recently observed accelerating rates of bay sediment removal, ebb-tidal delta erosion, and open coast beach erosion are all correlated temporally.

California↗
USGS2020

Historical and prehistorical water levels of Mormon Lake, Arizona as a measure of climate change on the southwest Colorado Plateau, USA

Mormon Lake, elevation 2166 m with maximum historic surface area of 31.4 km 2 , lies in a forested endorheic basin covering 103 km 2 . It is the largest unaltered freshwater body on the 337,000 km 2 Colorado Plateau. Prehistorical (before AD 1878) highstands were ca. 9 and 24 m relative to depocenter datum. These levels likely occurred during four multidecadal episodes of cool, wet conditions between ca. 3.55 and 0.20 ka BP. Maximum historical levels (early 1900s) were up to 7.9 m, whereas modern (post-1941) levels were frequently zero or relatively low. Historical climate records indicate reconstructed lake levels correlate directly with annual precipitation and inversely with temperature. Early highstands were associated with above average precipitation and the lowest temperatures of the 116 yr record. The lake receded after 1941; thereafter, frequent drying and low-water levels resulted from recurrent drought and steadily increasing temperatures. Consequently, a wet episode from the 1970s to the 1990s had precipitation like the early 1900s, but highstands were only ca. 3.8 m. The historical lake-level chronology is consistent with changes of hydrologic balance predicted by climate models, that is, reduced effective precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation). These changes, particularly aridification, apparently began in the 1970s or earlier. Global oceanic and atmospheric climate modulate lake levels and regional hydroclimate.

Arizona↗