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USGS2013

Semi-automted analysis of high-resolution aerial images to quantify docks in Upper Midwest glacial lakes

Lake resources can be negatively affected by environmental stressors originating from multiple sources and different spatial scales. Shoreline development, in particular, can negatively affect lake resources through decline in habitat quality, physical disturbance, and impacts on fisheries. The development of remote sensing techniques that efficiently characterize shoreline development in a regional context could greatly improve management approaches for protecting and restoring lake resources. The goal of this study was to develop an approach using high-resolution aerial photographs to quantify and assess docks as indicators of shoreline development. First, we describe a dock analysis workflow that can be used to quantify the spatial extent of docks using aerial images. Our approach incorporates pixel-based classifiers with object-based techniques to effectively analyze high-resolution digital imagery. Second, we apply the analysis workflow to quantify docks for 4261 lakes managed by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. Overall accuracy of the analysis results was 98.4% (87.7% based on ) after manual post-processing. The analysis workflow was also 74% more efficient than the time required for manual digitization of docks. These analyses have immediate relevance for resource planning in Minnesota, whereas the dock analysis workflow could be used to quantify shoreline development in other regions with comparable imagery. These data can also be used to better understand the effects of shoreline development on aquatic resources and to evaluate the effects of shoreline development relative to other stressors.

Minnesota↗

USGS2015

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii )

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.

California↗

USGS1999

Preliminary survey for entomopathogenic fungi associated with Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in southern New York and New England, USA

Free-living larval, nymphal, and adult Ixodes scapularis Say were collected from scattered locales in southern New England and New York to determine infection rates with entomopathogenic fungi. Infection rates of larvae, nymphs, males, and females were 0% (571), 0% (272), 0% (57), and 4.3% (47), respectively. Two entomopathogenic fungi were isolated from field-collected I. scapularis females from Fire Island, NY. Isolates were identified as Verticillium lecanii (Zimmermann) Viegas and Verticillium sp. (a member of the Verticillium lecanii species complex). Ixodes scapularis Say is the principal vector of Borrelia burgdorferi Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt & Brenner ( Burgdorfer et al. 1982 , Johnson et al. 1984 ), the etiologic agent of Lyme disease in the northeastern and upper-midwestern United States. Control of I. scapularis is based on chemical treatment ( Mather et al. 1987b ; Schulze et al. 1987 , 1991 ), environmental management ( Wilson et al. 1988 , Schulze et al. 1995 ), and habitat modification ( Wilson 1986 ). These methods have shown variable success, and some potentially have negative environmental effects ( Wilson and Deblinger 1993 , Ginsberg 1994 ). Studies concerning natural predators, parasitoids, and pathogens of I. scapularis are rare. The use of ground-dwelling birds as tick predators has had only limited success ( Duffy et al. 1992 ). Nymphal I. scapularis are often infected with the parasitic wasp Ixodiphagus hookeri (Howard) ( Mather et al. 1987a , Hu et al. 1993 , Stafford et al. 1996 , Hu and Hyland 1997 ), but this wasp does not effectively control I. scapularis populations ( Stafford et al. 1996 ). The entomopathogenic nematodes Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser) and S. glaseri (Steiner) are pathogenic only to engorged female I. scapularis, and thus have limited applicability ( Zhioua et al. 1995 ). In contrast, the entomogenous fungus Metarhizium anisopliae (Metschnikoff) Sorokin is highly pathogenic to all stages of I. scapularis, unfed as well as engorged, and thus has considerable potential as a microbial control agent ( Zhioua et al. 1997 ). European studies have suggested that entomopathogenic fungi might serve as natural controls of of Ixodes ricinus L. populations ( Samsinakova et al. 1974 , Eilenberg et al. 1991 , Kalsbeek et al. 1995 ). In the current study, we describe the isolation of entomopathogenic fungi from field-collected I. scapularis.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗

USGS2011

Nutrient loadings to streams of the continental United States from municipal and industrial effluent?

Data from the United States Environmental Protection Agency Permit Compliance System national database were used to calculate annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads to surface waters from municipal and industrial facilities in six major regions of the United States for 1992, 1997, and 2002. Concentration and effluent flow data were examined for approximately 118,250 facilities in 45 states and the District of Columbia. Inconsistent and incomplete discharge locations, effluent flows, and effluent nutrient concentrations limited the use of these data for calculating nutrient loads. More concentrations were reported for major facilities, those discharging more than 1 million gallons per day, than for minor facilities, and more concentrations were reported for TP than for TN. Analytical methods to check and improve the quality of the Permit Compliance System data were used. Annual loads were calculated using "typical pollutant concentrations" to supplement missing concentrations based on the type and size of facilities. Annual nutrient loads for over 26,600 facilities were calculated for at least one of the three years. Sewage systems represented 74% of all TN loads and 58% of all TP loads. This work represents an initial set of data to develop a comprehensive and consistent national database of point-source nutrient loads. These loads can be used to inform a wide range of water-quality management, watershed modeling, and research efforts at multiple scales.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2024

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security, and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using boosted regression tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North ↗

USGS2005

Centrarchid assemblages in Mississippi state-operated fishing lakes

We evaluated electrofishing catch per effort in 27 state-operated fishing lakes in Mississippi to identify patterns of centrarchid community composition and to determine whether those patterns were related to selected environmental characteristics and to artificial nutrient enrichment. Ordination with detrended correspondence analysis recognized two major axes accounting for 77% of the variability in species ordination. Axis 1 showed a distinct separation between the body sizes of various species. A notable exception was the density of small (<30 cm) largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides, which aligned with the large individuals of other centrarchid species. This pattern suggested that through predation, high densities of small largemouth bass exerted significant control over the size structure of fish communities. Axis 2 separated species of crappies Pomoxis spp., suggesting that conditions other than strong species interactions also moderated the composition of crappies in the assemblages. However, neither lake morphometry nor watershed composition exhibited a major influence over axes 1 or 2. In small, intensively managed lakes with low habitat complexity, the regulatory importance of biotic interactions may overwhelm that of abiotic factors. Nutrient enrichment influenced community structure by changing the densities of bluegill Lepomis macrochirus and largemouth bass substantially but had a minor or no effect on other species. The management techniques used in these state-operated lakes are usually targeted toward a particular species without adequately considering the other species within the community. Our results show that attention to community-level interactions could provide valuable insight into factors that affect the quality of the fishery, insight that is not available through traditional population-level assessments. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2016

Predation on Chinook Salmon parr by hatchery salmonids and Fallfish in the Salmon River, New York

Naturally reproduced Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha contribute substantially to the fishery in Lake Ontario. The Salmon River, a Lake Ontario tributary in New York, produces the largest numbers of naturally spawned Chinook Salmon, with parr abundance in the river often exceeding 10 million. In the spring of each year, large numbers of hatchery salmonid yearlings—potential predators of Chinook Salmon parr—are released into the Salmon River by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. We sought to examine predation on Chinook Salmon parr in the Salmon River during May and June prior to out-migration. Over the 4 years examined (2009–2012), annual consumption of Chinook Salmon parr by hatchery-released yearling steelhead O. mykiss and Coho Salmon O. kisutch ranged from 1.5 to 3.3 million and from 0.4 to 2.1 million, respectively. In 2009, Fallfish Semotilus corporalis were estimated to consume 2.9 million Chinook Salmon parr. Predation was higher in May, when the average TL of Chinook Salmon parr was 44.5 mm, than in June. Fallfish were also important predators of naturally reproduced steelhead subyearlings, consuming an estimated 800,000 steelhead in 2009. Hatchery-released yearling salmonids consumed 13.8–15.3% of the Chinook Salmon parr that were estimated to be present in the Salmon River during 2010–2012. Earlier releases of hatchery salmonid yearlings could reduce the riverine consumption of Chinook Salmon parr by facilitating the out-migration of yearlings prior to Chinook Salmon emergence.

New York↗

USGS2021

Effects of winter ticks and internal parasites on moose survival in Vermont, USA

Moose ( Alces alces ) have experienced considerable declines along the periphery of their range in the northeastern United States. In Vermont, the population declined 45% from 2010 to 2017 despite minimal hunter harvest and adequate habitat. Similarly, nearby populations recently experienced epizootics characterized by >50% mortality. Declines have largely been associated with the effects of winter ticks ( Dermacentor albipictus ), but uncertainty exists about the effects of environmental and other parasite-related conditions on moose survival. We examined patterns of moose survival among a radio-collared population ( n = 127) in Vermont from 2017 to 2019. Our objectives were to estimate causes of mortality and model survival probability as a function of individual and landscape variables for calves (<1 yr) and adults (≥1 yr). Observed adult survival was 90% in 2017, 84% in 2018, and 86% in 2019, and winter calf survival was 60% in 2017, 50% in 2018, and 37% in 2019. Winter tick infestation was the primary cause of mortality (91% of calves, 25% of adults), and 32% of all mortalities had evidence of meningeal worm ( Parelaphostrongylus tenuis ). Other sources of mortality such as vehicles, harvest, predation, deep snow, and other parasitic infections were negligible. The best supported calf model included sex differences and negative effects of tick engorgement (%/week) and parasite level (roundworm and lungworm). The best supported adult model included the effect of cumulative tick engorgement (cumulative %/week), which negatively affected survival. Our results indicate that winter tick engorgement strongly affects survival, and is probably compounded by the presence of meningeal worm and other parasites. Reduced tick effects may be achieved by decreasing moose density through harvest and managing late winter habitat to minimize tick density. Management of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) density may also affect the transmission of meningeal worm.

Vermont↗

USGS2006

Wetland environmental conditions associated with the risk of avian cholera outbreaks and the abundance of Pasteurella multocida

Avian cholera is a significant infectious disease affecting waterfowl across North America and occurs worldwide among various avian species. Despite the importance of this disease, little is known about the factors that cause avian cholera outbreaks and what management strategies might be used to reduce disease mortality. Previous studies indicated that wetland water conditions may affect survival and transmission of Pasteurella multocida, the agent that causes avian cholera. These studies hypothesized that water conditions affect the likelihood that avian cholera outbreaks will occur in specific wetlands. To test these predictions, we collected data from avian cholera outbreak and non-outbreak (control) wetlands throughout North America (wintera??spring 1995a??1996 to 1998a??1999) to evaluate whether water conditions were associated with outbreaks. Conditional logistic regression analysis on paired outbreak and non-outbreak wetlands indicated no significant association between water conditions and the risk of avian cholera outbreaks. For wetlands where avian cholera outbreaks occurred, linear regression showed that increased eutrophic nutrient concentrations (Potassium [K], nitrate [NO3], phosphorus [P], and phosphate [PO3]) were positively related to the abundance of P. multocida recovered from water and sediment samples. Wetland protein concentration and an El Ni??o event were also associated with P. multocida abundance. Our results indicate that wetland water conditions are not strongly associated with the risk of avian cholera outbreaks; however, some variables may play a role in the abundance of P. multocida bacteria and might be important in reducing the severity of avian cholera outbreaks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2007

Restoring coastal wetlands that were ditched for mosquito control: a preliminary assessment of hydro-leveling as a restoration technique

The wetlands surrounding Tampa Bay, Florida were extensively ditched for mosquito control in the 1950s. Spoil from ditch construction was placed adjacent to the wetlands ditches creating mound-like features (spoil-mounds). These mounds represent a loss of 14% of the wetland area in Tampa Bay. Spoil mounds interfere with tidal flow and are locations for non-native plants to colonize (e.g., Schinus terebinthifolius ). Removal of the spoil mounds to eliminate exotic plants, restore native vegetation, and re-establish natural hydrology is a restoration priority for environmental managers. Hydro-leveling, a new technique, was tested in a mangrove forest restoration project in 2004. Hydro-leveling uses a high pressure stream of water to wash sediment from the spoil mound into the adjacent wetland and ditch. To assess the effectiveness of this technique, we conducted vegetation surveys in areas that were hydro-leveled and in non-hydro-leveled areas 3 years post-project. Adult Schinus were reduced but not eliminated from hydro-leveled mounds. Schinus seedlings however were absent from hydro-leveled sites. Colonization by native species was sparse. Mangrove seedlings were essentially absent (≈2 m −2 ) from the centers of hydro-leveled mounds and were in low density on their edges (17 m −2 ) in comparison to surrounding mangrove forests (105 m −2 ). Hydro-leveling resulted in mortality of mangroves adjacent to the mounds being leveled. This was probably caused by burial of pneumatophores during the hydro-leveling process. For hydro-leveling to be a useful and successful restoration technique several requirements must be met. Spoil mounds must be lowered to the level of the surrounding wetlands. Spoil must be distributed further into the adjacent wetland to prevent burial of nearby native vegetation. Finally, native species may need to be planted on hydro-leveled areas to speed up the re-vegetation process.

Journal of Coastal Conservation↗

USGS2021

Are Cisco and Lake Whitefish competitors? An analysis of historical fisheries in Michigan waters of the Upper Laurentian Great Lakes

Historically, Cisco Coregonus artedi and Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis were abundant throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes, but overharvest, habitat degradation, and interactions with exotic species caused most populations to collapse by the mid-1900s. Strict commercial fishery regulations and improved environmental and ecological conditions allowed Cisco to partially recover only in Lake Superior, whereas Lake Whitefish recovered in all the upper Great Lakes (Superior, Michigan, and Huron). The differential responses of Cisco and Lake Whitefish to improved environmental and ecological conditions in lakes Michigan and Huron have led to questions about potential negative interactions between these species. To provide context for fishery managers, we tested for positive and negative correlations between historical (1929–1970) Cisco and Lake Whitefish commercial gill net catch per effort (CPE; kg/km of net) at a variety of spatial scales in Michigan waters of the upper Great Lakes. The three best-fit spatial models—LAKEWIDE, REGIONAL 10, and SIMPLE—all had similar levels of support (scaled second-order Akaike Information Criterion < 3.0), and we used these models to determine whether there was a significant correlation between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE (positive and negative). There was either no correlation between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE or a positive correlation for most (12 of 13) pairwise (Cisco–Lake Whitefish) comparisons. We identified no strong positive or negative correlations in the lakewide (LAKEWIDE) or reduced (SIMPLE) models. In the regional model (REGIONAL 10), we identified strong and positive correlations between Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE in two regions (ρ = 0.59–0.71) and a weak negative correlation in one region (ρ = −0.45). Collectively, our findings suggest that Cisco and Lake Whitefish CPE were largely independent of each other; thus, these species likely did not interact to the detriment of one another in Michigan waters of the upper Great Lakes during 1929–1970.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Spatially explicit modeling of blackbird abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region

Knowledge of factors influencing animal abundance is important to wildlife biologists developing management plans. This is especially true for economically important species such as blackbirds (Icteridae), which cause more than $100 million in crop damages annually in the United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the National Land Cover Dataset, and the National Climatic Data Center, we modeled effects of regional environmental variables on relative abundance of 3 blackbird species (red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus ; yellow-headed blackbird, Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus ; common grackle, Quiscalus quiscula ) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the central United States. We evaluated landscape covariates at 3 logarithmically related spatial scales (1,000 ha, 10,000 ha, and 100,000 ha) and modeled weather variables at the 100,000-ha scale. We constructed models a priori using information from published habitat associations. We fit models with WinBUGS using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Both landscape and weather variables contributed strongly to predicting blackbird relative abundance (95% credibility interval did not overlap 0). Variables with the strongest associations with blackbird relative abundance were the percentage of wetland area and precipitation amount from the year before bird surveys were conducted. The influence of spatial scale appeared small—models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset. This large-scale study elucidated regional effects of weather and landscape variables, suggesting that management strategies aimed at reducing damages caused by these species should consider the broader landscape, including weather effects, because such factors may outweigh the influence of localized conditions or site-specific management actions. The regional species distributional models we developed for blackbirds provide a tool for understanding these broader landscape effects and guiding wildlife management practices to areas that are optimally beneficial. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Iowa, Minnesotta, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota↗

USGS2009

Effects of highway construction on stream water quality and macroinvertebrate condition in a mid-Atlantic highlands watershed, USA

Refining best management practices (BMPs) for future highway construction depends on a comprehensive understanding of environmental impacts from current construction methods. Based on a before-after-control impact (BACI) experimental design, long-term stream monitoring (1997–2006) was conducted at upstream (as control, n = 3) and downstream (as impact, n = 6) sites in the Lost River watershed of the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region, West Virginia. Monitoring data were analyzed to assess impacts of during and after highway construction on 15 water quality parameters and macroinvertebrate condition using the West Virginia stream condition index (WVSCI). Principal components analysis (PCA) identified regional primary water quality variances, and paired t tests and time series analysis detected seven highway construction-impacted water quality parameters which were mainly associated with the second principal component. In particular, impacts on turbidity, total suspended solids, and total iron during construction, impacts on chloride and sulfate during and after construction, and impacts on acidity and nitrate after construction were observed at the downstream sites. The construction had statistically significant impacts on macroinvertebrate index scores (i.e., WVSCI) after construction, but did not change the overall good biological condition. Implementing BMPs that address those construction-impacted water quality parameters can be an effective mitigation strategy for future highway construction in this highlands region.

West Virginia↗

USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗

USGS2019

Response of nitrogen loading to the Chesapeake Bay to source reduction and land use change scenarios: A SPARROW‐informed analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS1996

Uncertainty of groundwater vulnerability assessments for agricultural regions in Hawaii: Review

There are important challenges associated with assessing potential groundwater vulnerability hazards that may result from regional scale applications of agrochemicals. The increasing availability of Geographic Information System (GIS) software to those involved in assisting with landuse decisions has resulted in the widespread production of multicolored risk management maps for many environmentally sensitive issues. Soil-based GIS's have recently been coupled to various solute-leaching models to make near-surface groundwater vulnerability assessments for guidance in pesticide regulation in several states. In general, these assessments rest on soil, climatic, and chemical data that are extremely sparse and contain considerable uncertainty. It is also important to acknowledge the uncertainty associated with the transport/fate processes that are not accounted for by the modeling approach used to make the assessment. In this paper, we review the results from a series of papers that have focused on characterization of uncertainty in pesticide mobility estimates, using the attenuation and retardation indices (AF and RF), for the Pearl Harbor Basin on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. Relative to data error uncertainties, we discuss the impacts of: (i) soil, climatic, and chemical data base uncertainties, (ii) reductions in data base uncertainties, (iii) extrapolation of soil data base information based on soil taxonomy and soil survey, and (iv) importing information from outside the region of interest. Relative to model error uncertainties, we compare pesticide leaching estimates from the simple AF and RF mobility indices with simulations from the EPA's Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) and field observations. Finally, we outline a Regional Integrated Risk Assessment approach for characterizing regional scale groundwater vulnerability for near-surface nonpoint sources.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Toward a mechanistic understanding of human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study linking energy development, avian nest predation, and predators

Demographic consequences of human-induced rapid environmental change (HIREC) have been widely documented for many populations. The mechanisms underlying such patterns, however, are rarely investigated and yet are critical to understand for effective conservation and management. We investigated the mechanisms underlying reduced avian nest survival with intensification of natural gas development, an increasing source of human-induced rapid environmental change globally. We tested the hypothesis that energy development increased the local activity of important nest predator species, thereby elevating nest predation rates. During 2011–2012, we surveyed predators and monitored 668 nests of Brewer's sparrows Spizella breweri (BRSP), sagebrush sparrows Artemisiospiza nevadensis (SASPs) and sage thrashers Oreoscoptes montanus (SATHs) breeding at twelve sites spanning a gradient of habitat loss from energy development in western Wyoming, USA. Nine species, representing four mammalian and three avian families, were video-recorded depredating eggs and nestlings. Important nest predator species differed across songbird species, despite similar nesting habitats. Approximately 75% of depredation events were by rodents. Consistent with our predictions, detections of most rodent nest predators increased with surrounding habitat loss due to natural gas development, which was associated with increased probability of nest predation for our three focal bird species. An altered nest predator assemblage was therefore at least partly responsible for elevated avian nest predation risk in areas with more surrounding energy development. Synthesis and applications . We demonstrate one mechanism, that is the local augmentation of predators, by which human-induced rapid environmental change can influence the demography of local populations. Given the accelerating trajectory of global energy demands, an important next step will be to understand why the activity and/or abundance of rodent predators increased with surrounding habitat loss from energy development activities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2010

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗