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Documentation of a computer program to simulate aquifer-system compaction using the modular finite-difference ground-water flow model

Removal of ground water by pumping from aquifers may result in compaction of compressible fine-grained beds that are within or adjacent to the aquifers. Compaction of the sediments and resulting land subsidence may be permanent if the head declines result in vertical stresses beyond the previous maximum stress. The process of permanent compaction is not routinely included in simulations of ground-water flow. To simulate storage changes from both elastic and inelastic compaction, a computer program was written for use with the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground- water flow model. The new program, the Interbed-Storage Package, is designed to be incorporated into this model. In the Interbed-Storage Package, elastic compaction or expansion is assumed to be proportional to change in head. The constant of proportionality is the product of the skeletal component of elastic specific storage and the thickness of the sediments. Similarly, inelastic compaction is assumed to be proportional to decline in head. The constant of proportionality is the product of the skeletal component of inelastic specific storage and the thickness of the sediments. Storage changes are incorporated into the ground-water flow model by adding an additional term to the right-hand side of the flow equation. Within a model time step, the package appropriately apportions storage changes between elastic and inelastic components on the basis of the relation of simulated head to the previous minimum (preconsolidation) head. Two tests were performed to verify that the package works correctly. The first test compared model-calculated storage and compaction changes to hand-calculated values for a three-dimensional simulation. Model and hand-calculated values were essentially equal. The second test was performed to compare the results of the Interbed-Storage Package with results of the one-dimensional Helm compaction model. This test problem simulated compaction in doubly draining confining beds stressed by head changes in adjacent aquifers. The Interbed-Storage Package and the Helm model computed essentially equal values of compaction. Documentation of the Interbed-Storage Package includes data input instructions, flow charts, narratives, and listings for each of the five modules included in the package. The documentation also includes an appendix describing input instructions and a listing of a computer program for time-variant specified-head boundaries. That package was developed to reduce the amount of data input and output associated with one of the Interbed-Storage Package test problems.

Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations↗

Approach for delineation of contributing areas and zones of transport to selected public-supply wells using a regional ground-water flow model, Palm Beach County, Florida

Rapid urban development and population growth in Palm Beach County, Florida, have been accompanied with the need for additional freshwater withdrawals from the surficial aquifer system. To maintain water quality, County officials protect capture areas and determine zones of transport of municipal supply wells. A multistep process was used to help automate the delineation of wellhead protection areas. A modular ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) Telescopic Mesh Refinement program (MODTMR) was used to construct an embedded flow model and combined with particle tracking to delineate zones of transport to supply wells; model output was coupled with a geographic information system. An embedded flow MODFLOW model was constructed using input and output file data from a preexisting three-dimensional, calibrated model of the surficial aquifer system. Three graphical user interfaces for use with the geographic information software, ArcView, were developed to enhance the telescopic mesh refinement process. These interfaces include AvMODTMR for use with MODTMR; AvHDRD to build MODFLOW river and drain input files from dynamically segmented linear (canals) data sets; and AvWELL Refiner, an interface designed to examine and convert well coverage spatial data layers to a MODFLOW Well package input file. MODPATH (the U.S. Geological Survey particle-tracking postprocessing program) and MODTOOLS (the set of U.S. Geological Survey computer programs to translate MODFLOW and MODPATH output to a geographic information system) were used to map zones of transport. A steady-state, five-layer model of the Boca Raton area was created using the telescopic mesh refinement process and calibrated to average conditions during January 1989 to June 1990. A sensitivity analysis of various model parameters indicates that the model is most sensitive to changes in recharge rates, hydraulic conductivity for layer 1, and leakance for layers 3 and 4 (Biscayne aquifer). Recharge (58 percent); river (canal) leakance (29 percent); and inflow through the northern, western, and southern prescribed flux model boundaries (10 percent) represent the major inflow components. Principal outflow components in the Boca Raton well field area include well discharge (56 percent), river (canal) leakance (27 percent), and water that discharges along the coast (10 percent). A particle-tracking analysis using MODPATH was conducted to better understand well-field ground-water flow patterns and time of travel. MODTOOLS was used to construct zones-of-transport spatial data for municipal supply wells. Porosity estimates were uniformly increased to study the effect of porosity on zones of transport. Where porosity was increased, the size of the zones of transport were shown to decrease.

Florida↗

Estimating water temperatures in small streams in western Oregon using neural network models

Artificial neural network models were developed to estimate water temperatures in small streams using data collected at 148 sites throughout western Oregon from June to September 1999. The sites were located on 1st-, 2nd-, or 3rd-order streams having undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Data collected at each site for model development included continuous hourly water temperature and description of riparian habitat. Additional data pertaining to the landscape characteristics of the basins upstream of the sites were assembled using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Hourly meteorological time series data collected at 25 locations within the study region also were assembled. Clustering analysis was used to partition 142 sites into 3 groups. Separate models were developed for each group. The riparian habitat, basin characteristic, and meteorological time series data were independent variables and water temperature time series were dependent variables to the models, respectively. Approximately one-third of the data vectors were used for model training, and the remaining two-thirds were used for model testing. Critical input variables included riparian shade, site elevation, and percentage of forested area of the basin. Coefficient of determination and root mean square error for the models ranged from 0.88 to 0.99 and 0.05 to 0.59 oC, respectively. The models also were tested and validated using temperature time series, habitat, and basin landscape data from 6 sites that were separate from the 142 sites that were used to develop the models. The models are capable of estimating water temperatures at locations along 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order streams in western Oregon. The model user must assemble riparian habitat and basin landscape characteristics data for a site of interest. These data, in addition to meteorological data, are model inputs. Output from the models include simulated hourly water temperatures for the June to September period. Adjustments can be made to the shade input data to simulate the effects of minimum or maximum shade on water temperatures.

Oregon↗

Nitrogen and phosphorus in streams of the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio, 1998–2000

Sources and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus in streams of the Great Miami River Basin were evaluated as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment program. Water samples were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey from October 1998 through September 2000 (water years 1999 and 2000) at five locations in Ohio on a routine schedule and additionally during selected high streamflows. Stillwater River near Union, Great Miami River near Vandalia, and Mad River near Eagle City were selected to represent predominantly agricultural areas upstream from the Dayton metropolitan area. Holes Creek near Kettering is in the Dayton metropolitan area and was selected to represent an urban area in the Great Miami River Basin. Great Miami River at Hamilton is downstream from the Dayton and Hamilton-Middletown metropolitan areas and was selected to represent mixed agricultural and urban land uses of the Great Miami River Basin. Inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus to streams from point and nonpoint sources were estimated for the three agricultural basins and for the Great Miami River Basin as a whole. Nutrient inputs from point sources were computed from the facilities that discharge one-half million gallons or more per day into streams of the Great Miami River Basin. Nonpoint-source inputs estimated in this report are atmospheric deposition and commercial-fertilizer and manure applications. Loads of ammonia, nitrate, total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus from the five sites were computed with the ESTIMATOR program. The computations show nitrate to be the primary component of instream nitrogen loads, and particulate phosphorus to be the primary component of instream phosphorus loads. The Mad River contributed the smallest loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus to the study area upstream from Dayton, whereas the Upper Great Miami River (upstream from Vandalia) contributed the largest loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus to the Great Miami River Basin upstream from Dayton. An evaluation of monthly mean loads shows that nutrient loads were highest during winter 1999 and lowest during the drought of summer and autumn 1999. During the 1999 drought, point sources were the primary contributors of nitrogen and phosphorus loads to most of the study area. Nonpoint sources, however, were the primary contributors of nitrogen and phosphorus loads during months of high streamflow. Nonpoint sources were also the primary contributors of nitrogen loads to the Mad River during the 1999 drought, owing to unusually large amounts of ground-water discharge to the stream. The Stillwater River Basin had the highest nutrient yields in the study area during months of high streamflow; however, the Mad River Basin had the highest yields of all nutrients except ammonia during the months of the 1999 drought. The high wet-weather yields in the Stillwater River Basin were caused by agricultural runoff, whereas high yields in the Mad River Basin during drought resulted from the large, sustained contribution of ground water to streamflow throughout the year. In the basins upstream from Dayton, an estimated 19 to 25 percent of the nonpoint source of nitrogen and 4 to 5 percent of the nonpoint source of phosphorus that was deposited or applied to the land was transported into streams.

Ohio↗

User's Guide for Mixed-Size Sediment Transport Model for Networks of One-Dimensional Open Channels

This user's guide describes a mathematical model for predicting the transport of mixed sizes of sediment by flow in networks of one-dimensional open channels. The simulation package is useful for general sediment routing problems, prediction of erosion and deposition following dam removal, and scour in channels at road embankment crossings or other artificial structures. The model treats input hydrographs as stepwise steady-state, and the flow computation algorithm automatically switches between sub- and supercritical flow as dictated by channel geometry and discharge. A variety of boundary conditions including weirs and rating curves may be applied both external and internal to the flow network. The model may be used to compute flow around islands and through multiple openings in embankments, but the network must be 'simple' in the sense that the flow directions in all channels can be specified before simulation commences. The location and shape of channel banks are user specified, and all bedelevation changes take place between these banks and above a user-specified bedrock elevation. Computation of sediment-transport emphasizes the sand-size range (0.0625-2.0 millimeter) but the user may select any desired range of particle diameters including silt and finer (<0.0625 millimeter). As part of data input, the user may set the original bed-sediment composition of any number of layers of known thickness. The model computes the time evolution of total transport and the size composition of bed- and suspended-load sand through any cross section of interest. It also tracks bed -surface elevation and size composition. The model is written in the FORTRAN programming language for implementation on personal computers using the WINDOWS operating system and, along with certain graphical output display capability, is accessed from a graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI provides a framework for selecting input files and parameters of a number of components of the sediment-transport process. There are no restrictions in the use of the model as to numbers of channels, channel junctions, cross sections per channel, or points defining the cross sections. Following completion of the simulation computations, the GUI accommodates display of longitudinal plots of either bed elevation and size composition, or of transport rate and size composition of the various components, for individual channels and selected times during the simulation period. For individual cross sections, the GUI also allows display of time series of transport rate and size composition of the various components and of bed elevation and size composition.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A modification of the finite-difference model for simulation of two dimensional ground-water flow to include surface-ground water relationships

The two-dimensional finite-difference model for simulation of groundwater flow was modified to enable simulation of surface-water/groundwater interactions during periods of low streamflow. Changes were made to the program code in order to calculate surface-water heads for, and flow either to or from, contiguous surface-water bodies; and to allow for more convenient data input. Methods of data input and output were modified and entries (RSORT and HDRIVER) were added to the COEF and CHECKI subroutines to calculate surface-water heads. A new subroutine CALC was added to the program which initiates surface-water calculations. If CALC is not specified as a simulation option, the program runs the original version. The subroutines which solve the ground-water flow equations were not changed. Recharge, evapotranspiration, surface-water inflow, number of wells, pumping rate, and pumping duration can be varied for any time period. The Manning formula was used to relate stream depth and discharge in surface-water streams. Interactions between surface water and ground water are represented by the leakage term in the ground-water flow and surface-water mass balance equations. Documentation includes a flow chart, data deck instructions, input data, output summary, and program listing. Numerical results from the modified program are in good agreement with published analytical results. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrology and land use in Van Buren County, Michigan

This report gives the results of an investigation to determine the chemical and physical characteristics of ground and surface water in Van Buren County and to relate these characteristics to the agricultural use of land. Chemical inputs to the hydrologic system, including those from precipitation, animal wastes, septic tanks, and fertilizers, are assessed. Land-use, geologic setting, and hydrologic conditions are given as a necessary framework for interpretations. The land surface in Van Buren county in southwestern Michigan is flat to rolling, and ranges in altitude from 580 to 1,050 feet. About 30,000 acres or 7.4 percent of land is irrigated. Annual precipitation ranges from 34 to 36 inches. Two rivers--the Paw Paw and South Branch Black--drain most of the county. During this study, the maximum discharge of the Paw Paw River was 2,500 cubic feet per second; the minimum discharge was 202 cubic feet per second. The average discharge of the South Branch Black River during a 17- year period of record has been 106 cubic feet per second. Glacial deposits are the principal source of ground-water supplies. These deposits range in thickness from 100 to 600 feet and consist of till, outwash, and materials of lacustrine and eolian origin. In places the deposits fill buried valleys that are as much as 400 feet deep. The Coldwater Shale of Mississippian age, which underlies the glacial deposits, is mostly shale and usually yields only small amounts of salty water. Of the glacial deposits, outwash is the most productive aquifer. Most domestic wells obtain water from outwash at depths ranging from 15 to 160 feet. Irrigation wells capable of yielding 1,000 gallons per minute generally are about 200 feet deep. In places in the western part of the county, glacial deposits, which are several hundred feet thick, are mostly clay and yield little or no water. Areal variations in the chemical and physical characteristics of ground and surface water are related to land use and chemical inputs to the hydrologic system. Information on fertilizer application, septic-tank discharges, animal wastes, and precipitation and dry fallout show that 72.7 percent of nitrogen input is from fertilizer, 21.3 percent from precipitation and dry fallout, 4.5 percent from animal wastes, and 1.5 percent from septic tanks. Streams and lakes generally contain a calcium bicarbonate type water. The dissolved-solids concentration of streams ranged from 56 to 749 milligrams per liter, and that of lakes, from 28 to 310 milligrams per liter. Water of streams is hard but at most locations is suitable for most uses. Total nitrogen concentrations as high as 15 milligrams per liter were found at two sites. Pesticides (Simazine and Atrazine) were detected at some sites. Relationships between land use and water quality of streams indicate that the nitrate yield of land increases as the percentage of crop land, pasture, and feeding operation increases in a drainage area. Water of lakes also is suitable for most uses, although Alachlor, Atrazine, Silvex, Simazine, Treflan, or 2,4-D were detected in 26 samples. Ground water is of a calcium bicarbonate type, although sodium, sulfate, and chloride are the predominant ions at some locations. Dissolved-solids concentrations ranged from 112 to 878 milligrams per liter; concentrations of trace metals exceeding those common in water were detected at some locations. Nitrate concentrations in the southern eight townships were generally higher than in the northern ten townships; water from 22 percent of the wells in the southern townships exceeded the 10 milligrams per liter drinking-water standard of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. High nitrate concentrations probably are related to fertilizer applications, but equally important seems to be the quantity of irrigation water applied. Oil-field activity in the northern part of the county seems to have increased the chloride concentrations of ground water in some places. Model simulations of the ground-water flow system matched measured conditions if hydraulic conductivities of 10 to 35 feet per day and a recharge rate of 11.8 inches per year were used. Simulations of 500 gallons per minute pumping from an unconfined aquifer indicated only 2 to 3 feet of drawdown in the vicinity of the pumping well. Similar pumping from a confined aquifer, however, produced about 10 feet of drawdown. Simulations of increased pumping for the irrigated area in the southern part of the county indicated that significant drawdown might be expected in some parts.

Michigan↗

Computer-program documentation of an interactive-accounting model to simulate streamflow, water quality, and water-supply operations in a river basin

This report describes an interactive-accounting model used to simulate streamflow, chemical-constituent concentrations and loads, and water-supply operations in a river basin. The model uses regression equations to compute flow from incremental (internode) drainage areas. Conservative chemical constituents (typically dissolved solids) also are computed from regression equations. Both flow and water quality loads are accumulated downstream. Optionally, the model simulates the water use and the simplified groundwater systems of a basin. Water users include agricultural, municipal, industrial, and in-stream users , and reservoir operators. Water users list their potential water sources, including direct diversions, groundwater pumpage, interbasin imports, or reservoir releases, in the order in which they will be used. Direct diversions conform to basinwide water law priorities. The model is interactive, and although the input data exist in files, the user can modify them interactively. A major feature of the model is its color-graphic-output options. This report includes a description of the model, organizational charts of subroutines, and examples of the graphics. Detailed format instructions for the input data, example files of input data, definitions of program variables, and listing of the FORTRAN source code are Attachments to the report. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrology and water quality of Powers Lake, southeastern Wisconsin

This report describes the hydrology and water quality of Powers Lake, a recreational lake in a densely populated area of southeastern Wisconsin, from October 16, 1986 - October 15, 1987. The hydrologic budget for the study period showed that direct precipitation on the lake and ground water were dominant sources of water entering the lake (37 and 36 percent, respectively) and that streamflow dominated the outflow. Surface runoff contributed 27 percent of the inflow-23 percent from Powers Lake inlet and 4 percent from shoreline drainage. Streamflow through Powers Lake outlet accounted for 62 percent of the outflow and evaporation accounted for 38 percent. Based on the streamflow from Powers Lake outlet, the lake's hydraulic residence time was 3.8 years. During the study period, precipitation was 27.16 inches or 4.08 inches below long-term (1951-80) average. The data were adjusted or normalized to represent an average year of precipitation and runoff to help evaluate the water quality of the lake for an average year. For an average year, precipitation dominated inflow (42 percent), followed by ground water (32 percent), Powers Lake inlet (21 percent), and shoreline drainage (5 percent). Streamflow through Powers Lake outlet accounted for 61 percent of an average year's outflow budget and the remaining 39 percent was evaporation. Based on an average year's streamflow from Powers Lake outlet, the lake's hydraulic residence time was 4.2 years. Phosphorus budgets were prepared for the study period and for an estimated normal year. The phosphorus budget for the study period showed that, of the total inputs (516 pounds), surface runoff contributed the largest amount; shoreline drainage contributed 44 percent, and Powers Lake inlet contributed 36 percent. Direct precipitation contributed 11 percent; ground water, 2 percent; and septic systems, 7 percent. Of the total outputs, 83 pounds (16 percent) was lost from the lake via the outlet; 433 pounds (84 percent) was lost to the sediments as the phosphorus that was attached to particles settled to the lake bottom. An estimated phosphorus budget for a normal year showed that of the total inputs (744 pounds), surface runoff contributed the largest amount; Powers Lake inlet contributed 45 percent and shoreline drainage contributed 35 percent. Precipitation contributed 9 percent; ground water, 1 percent; and septic systems, 10 percent. The health of the lake was evaluated using Carlson's Trophic State Index and Vollenweider's model. Carlson's Trophic State Index showed that Powers Lake was moderately enriched and in the mesotrophic range. Comparison of guidelines from Vollenweider's model showed that the total phosphorus input for the study period and for an estimated average year would not cause eutrophic conditions.

Wisconsin↗

Methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations of selected water-quality constituents for stream sites in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota

Future development of the Garrison Diversion Unit may divert water from the Missouri River into the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North for municipal and industrial use. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Canals, Rivers, and Reservoirs Salinity Accounting Procedures model can be used to predict the effect various operating plans could have on water quality in the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. The model uses, as Input, monthly means of streamflow and selected water-quality constituents for a 54-year period at 28 nodes on the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. This report provides methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations of selected water-quality constituents that can be used for input to and calibration of the salinity model. Mater-quality data for 32 gaging stations can be used to define selected water-quality characteristics at the 28 model nodes. Materquality data were retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Mater Data Storage and Retrieval System data base and statistical summaries were prepared. The frequency of water-quality data collection at the gaging stations is inadequate to define monthly mean concentrations of the individual water-quality constituents for all months for the 54-year period; therefore, methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations were developed. Relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO 3 ), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and streamflow were developed as the primary method to estimate monthly mean concentrations. Relations between specific conductance and streamflow and relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO 3 ), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and specific conductance were developed so that a cascaded-regression relation could be developed as a second method of estimating monthly mean concentrations and, thus, utilize a large specific-conductance data base. Information about the quantity and the quality of ground water discharging to the Sheyenne River is needed for model input for reaches of the river where ground water accounts for a substantial part of streamflow during periods of low flow. Ground-water discharge was identified for two reaches of the Sheyenne River. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in the vicinity of Warwick, N.Dak., was about 14.8 cubic feet per second and the estimated dissolved-solids concentration was about 441 milligrams per liter during October 15 and 16, 1986. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in a reach between Lisbon and Kindred, N.Dak., ranged from an average of 25.3 cubic feet per second during September 13 to November 19, 1963, to about 45.0 cubic feet per second during October 21 and 22, 1986. Dissolved-solids concentration was estimated at about 442 milligrams per liter during October 21 and 22, 1986.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

User's guide to revised method-of-characteristics solute-transport model (MOC--version 31)

The U.S. Geological Survey computer model to simulate two-dimensional solute transport and dispersion in ground water (Konikow and Bredehoeft, 1978; Goode and Konikow, 1989) has been modified to improve management of input and output data and to provide progressive run-time information. All opening and closing of files are now done automatically by the program. Names of input data files are entered either interactively or using a batch-mode script file. Names of output files, created automatically by the program, are based on the name of the input file. In the interactive mode, messages are written to the screen during execution to allow the user to monitor the status and progress of the simulation and to anticipate total running time. Information reported and updated during a simulation include the current pumping period and time step, number of particle moves, and percentage completion of the current time step. The batch mode enables a user to run a series of simulations consecutively, without additional control. A report of the model's activity in the batch mode is written to a separate output file, allowing later review. The user has several options for creating separate output files for different types of data. The formats are compatible with many commercially available applications, which facilitates graphical postprocessing of model results. Geohydrology and Evaluation of Stream-Aquifer Relations in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern Alabama, Northwestern Florida, and Southwestern Georgia By Lynn J. Torak, Gary S. Davis, George A. Strain, and Jennifer G. Herndon Abstract The lower Apalachieola-Chattahoochec-Flint River Basin is underlain by Coastal Plain sediments of pre-Cretaceous to Quaternary age consisting of alternating units of sand, clay, sandstone, dolomite, and limestone that gradually thicken and dip gently to the southeast. The stream-aquifer system consism of carbonate (limestone and dolomite) and elastic sediments, which define the Upper Floridan aquifer and Intermediate system, in hydraulic connection with the principal rivers of the basin and other surface-water features, natural and man made. Separate digital models of the Upper Flori-dan aquifer and Intermediate system were constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey's MODular Finite-Element model of two dimensional ground-water flow, based on concep- tualizations of the stream-aquifer system, and calibrated to drought conditions of October 1986. Sensitivity analyses performed on the models indicated that aquifer hydraulic conductivity, lateral and vertical boundary flows, and pumpage have a strong influence on groundwater levels. Simulated pumpage increases in the Upper Floridan aquifer, primarily in the Dougherty Plain physiographic district of Georgia,. caused significant reductions in aquifer discharge to streams that eventually flow to Lake Seminole and the Apalachicola River and Bay. Simulated pumpage increases greater than 3 times the October 1986 rates caused drying ofsome stream reaches and parts of the Upper Floridan aquifer in Georgia. Water budgets prepared from simulation results indicate that ground- water discharge to streams and recharge by horizontal and vertical flow are the principal mechanisms for moving water through the flow system. The potential for changes in ground-water quality is high in areas where chemical constituents can be mobilized by these mechanisms. Less than 2 percent of ground-water discharge to streams comes from the Intermediate system; thus, it plays a minor role in the hydrodynamics of the stream- aquifer system.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Simulation of water available for runoff in clearcut forest openings during rain-on-snow events in the western Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington

Rain-on-snow events are common on mountain slopes within the transient-snow zone of the Pacific Northwest. These events make more water available for runoff than does precipitation alone by melting the snowpack and by adding a small amount of condensate to the snowpack. In forest openings (such as those resulting from clearcut logging), the amount of snow that accumulates and the turbulent- energy input to the snowpack are greater than below forest stands. Both factors are believed to contribute to a greater amount of water available for runoff during rain-on-snow events in forest openings than forest stands. Because increased water available for runoff may lead to increased downstream flooding and erosion, knowledge of the amount of snowmelt that can occur during rain on snow and the processes that control snowmelt in forest openings is useful when making land-use decisions. Snow accumulation and melt were simulated for clearcut conditions only, using an enery- balance approach that accounts for the most important energy and mass exchanges between a snowpack and its environment. Meteorological measurements provided the input for the simulations. Snow accumulation and melt were not simulated in forest stands because interception of precipitation processes are too complex to simulate with a numerical model without making simplifying assumptions. Such a model, however, would need to be extensively tested against representative observations, which were not available for this study. Snowmelt simulated during three rain-on-snow events (measured in a previous study in a clearcut in the transient-snow zone of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon) demonstrated that melt generation is most sensitive to turbulent- energy exchanges between the air and the snowpack surface. As a result, the most important climate variable that controls snowmelt is wind speed. Air temperature, however, is a significant variable also. The wind speeds were light, with a maximum of 3.3 meters per second during one event and average wind speeds for all three events ranging from 1.7 to 2.1 meters per second. For observed and estimated conditions, the average simulated snowmelt ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 millimeter liquid water per hour, and turbulent-energy exchange provided 51 percent of the energy that led to snowmelt during the largest of the three rain-on-snow events. When wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 4, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per hour. Similarly, when wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 6, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.6 to 3.7 millimeters per hour. Turbulent-energy exchange provided a dominant 88 and 92 percent of the energy input to the snowpack during the largest rain-on-snow event when average wind speeds were multiplied by factors of 4 and 6, respectively. During the same event, the contribution to melt by the sum of net solar and net thermal radiation (net all-wave radiation) was roughly equal to the contribution of sensible energy carried by the precipitation itself (advective heat). Estimates of snowmelt resulting from rain on snow for climate conditions other than those observed and estimated in the simulated plot-scale data were expanded by simulating snowmelt for 24-hour presumed rain-on-snow events extracted from the reconstructed, long-term historical climate records for Cedar Lake and Snoqualmie Pass National Weather Service stations in Washington State. The selected events exceeded 75 millimeters of precipitation in 24 hours. When clearcut conditions were assumed to be identical to those at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest site and a ripe snowpack that never completely melted was assumed to be available, simulated 24-hour snowmelt ranged from 4.2 to 47.0 millimeters (0.2 to 2.0 millimeters per hour) for low wind speeds (1.5 meters per second) and from 10.3 to 178.8 millimeters (0.4 to 7.5 millimeters per hour) for high wind speeds (8.2 meters per second). The ranges in

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models for the Willamette River basin, Oregon

Precipitation-runoff and streamflow-routing models were constructed and assessed as part of a water-quality study of the Willamette River Basin. The study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) and was coordinated with the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) study of the Willamette River. Routing models are needed to estimate streamflow so that water-quality constituent loads can be calculated from measured concentrations and so that sources, sinks, and downstream changes in those loads can be identified. Runoff models are needed to estimate ungaged-tributary inflows for routing models and to identify flow contributions from different parts of the basin. The runoff and routing models can be run either separately or together to simulate streamflow at various locations and to examine streamflow contributions from overland flow, shallow-subsurface flow, and ground-water flow. The 11,500-square-mile Willamette River Basin was partitioned into 21 major basins and 253 subbasins. For each subbasin, digital data layers of land use, soils, geology, and topography were combined in a geographic information system (GIS) to define hydrologic response units (HRU's), the basic computational unit for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Spatial data layers were also used to calculate noncalibrated PRMS parameter values. Other PRMS parameter values were obtained from 10 nearby calibrated subbasins of representative location and character. About 760 miles of the Willamette River system were partitioned into 4 main-stem networks and 17 major tributary networks for streamflow routing. Data from time-of-travel studies, discharge measurements, and flood analyses were used to develop equations that related stream cross-sectional area to discharge and stream width to discharge. These relations were derived for all 21 stream networks at approximately 3-mile intervals and used in the Diffusion Analogy Flow model (DAFLOW) in streamflow routing. Ten representative runoff models and 11 network-routing models were calibrated for water years 1972-75 and verified for water years 1976-78. These were the periods with the most complete and widespread streamflow record for the Willamette River Basin. Observed and estimated daily precipitation and daily minimum and maximum air temperature were used as input to the runoff models. The resulting coefficient of determination (R2) for the representative runoff models ranged from 0.69 to 0.93 for the calibration period and from 0.63 to 0.92 for the verification period; absolute errors ranged from 18 to 39 percent and from 27 to 51 percent, respectively. Bias error for the runoff modeling ranged from + 13 to -32 percent. Observed daily streamflow data were used as input to the network-routing models where available, and simulated streamflows from runoff model results were used for ungaged areas. Absolute error for the network-routing models ranged from about 21 percent for the Molalla River model, for which 70 percent of the subbasin was ungaged, to about 4 percent for the Willamette main-stem model (Albany to Salem), for which only 9 percent of the subbasin was ungaged. With an input of current streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature data the combined runoff and routing models can provide current estimates of streamflow at almost 500 locations on the main stem and major tributaries of the Willamette River with a high degree of accuracy. Relative contributions of surface runoff, subsurface flow, and ground-water flow can be assessed for 1 to 10 HRU classes in each of 253 subbasins identified for precipitation-runoff modeling. Model outputs were used with a water-quality model to simulate the movement of dye in the Pudding River as an example

Oregon↗

Phosphorus dynamics in Delavan Lake Inlet, southeastern Wisconsin, 1994

Removal of rough fish from Delavan Lake Inlet in southeastern Wisconsin transformed the inlet from a shallow, turbid-water system with few macrophytes to a clear-water system with an abundance of macrophytes and increased phosphorus concentrations. To understand the changes in the phosphorus dynamics, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, in cooperation with the Town of Delavan, constructed a detailed phosphorus budget for the inlet for April through September 1994. The budget included inputs from the drainage basin, atmosphere, sediments (as a function of pH and the fraction of the day under anoxic conditions), and ground water. Laboratory studies estimated phosphorus flux rates under various conditions. Field studies documented ambient conditions in the inlet and fluxes of phosphorus into and out of the inlet. Phosphorus released from the sediments was estimated by coupling the flux rates, estimated in the laboratory, with ambient conditions in the inlet. The detailed phosphorus budget indicated that the increase in phosphorus concentrations was caused primarily by elevated pH resulting from increased photosynthetic activity of the macrophytes and a high release of phosphorus from the sediments. The release of phosphorus from the sediments was the largest source of phosphorus to the inlet in the spring and summer of 1994 and in other years of low to near normal runoff; however, in years of high runoff, phosphorus input from the inlet's drainage basin was the largest source of phosphorus. A less-detailed phosphorus budget constructed for the period from February 1993 to September 1994 demonstrated that, over the entire year, runoff from the drainage basin was the dominant source in the phosphorus budget. During April-September 1994, the input of phosphorus from the inlet may especially affect the summer productivity in Delavan Lake because almost 80 percent of the phosphorus loading during this time was in the form of dissolved orthophosphate.

Wisconsin↗

Factors affecting phosphorus transport at a conventionally-farmed site in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, 1992-95

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Bureau of Land and Water Conservation of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection conducted a cooperative study to determine the effects of manure application and antecedent soil-phosphorus concentrations on the transport of phosphorus from the soil of a typical farm site in Lancaster County, Pa., from September 1992 to March 1995. The relation between concentrations of soil phosphorus and phosphorus transport needs to be identified because excessive phosphorus concentrations in surface-water bodies promote eutrophication. The objective of the study was to quantify and determine the significance of chemical, physical, and hydrologic factors that affected phosphorus transport. Three study plots less than 1 acre in size were tilled and planted in silage corn. Phosphorus in the form of liquid swine and dairy manure was injected to a depth of 6-8 inches on two of the three study plots in May 1993 and May 1994. Plot 1 received no inputs of phosphorus from manure while plots 2 and 3 received an average of 56 and 126 kilograms of phosphorus per acre, respectively, from the two manure applications. No other fertilizer was applied to any of the study plots. From March 30, 1993, through December 31, 1993, and March 10, 1994, through August 31, 1994 (the study period), phosphorus and selected cations were measured in precipitation, manure, soil, surface runoff, subsurface flow (at 18 inches below land surface), and corn plants before harvest. All storm events that yielded surface runoff and subsurface flow were sampled. Surface runoff was analyzed for dissolved (filtered through a 0.45-micron filter) and total concentrations. Subsurface flow was only analyzed for dissolved constituents. Laboratory soil-flask experiments and geochemical modeling were conducted to determine the maximum phosphate retention capacity of sampled soils after manure applications and primary mineralogic controls in the soils that affect phosphate equilibrium processes. Physical characteristics, such as particle-size distributions in soil, the suspended sediment and particle-size distribution in surface runoff, and surface topography, were quantified. Hydrologic characteristics, such as precipitation intensity and duration, volumes of surface runoff, and infiltration rates of soil, were also monitored during the study period. Volumes of surface runoff differed by plot. Volumes of surface runoff measured during the study period from plots 1 (0.43 acres), 2 (0.23 acres), and 3 (0.28 acres) were 350,000, 350,000, and 750,000 liters per acre, respectively. About 90 percent of the volume of surface runoff occurred after October 1993 because of the lack of intense precipitation from March 30, 1993, through November 30, 1993. For any one precipitation amount, volumes of surface runoff increased with an increase in the maximum intensity of precipitation and decreased with an increase in storm duration. The significantly higher volume of surface runoff for plot 3 relative to plots 1 and 2 was probably caused by lower infiltration rates on plot 3. Soil concentrations of plant-available phosphorus (PAP) for each study plot were high (31-60 parts per million) to excessive (greater than 60 parts per million) for each depth interval (0-6, 6-12, and 12- 24 inches) and sampling period except for some samples collected at depths of 12-24 inches. The high levels of PAP before manure applications made it difficult to detect any changes in the concentration of soil PAP caused by manure applications. Manure applications to the study area prior to this study resulted in relatively high concentrations of soil PAP; however, the manure applications to plot 3 during the study period did cause an increase in the soil concentration of PAP after the second manure application. The percentages of total phosphorus in plant-available and inorganic forms were about 5 and 80 percent, respectively, in the 0-24--inch depth interval of soil on the study plots. Concentrations of total phosphorus on sand, silt, and clay particles from soil were 700, 1,000, and 3,400 parts per million, respectively. About 70 percent of the total mass of phosphorus in soil to a depth of 24 inches was associated with silt and clay particles. Soil-flask experiments indicated that soils from the study plots were not saturated with respect to phosphorus. Soils had the capacity to retain 694 to 1,160 milligrams of phosphorus per kilogram of soil. The measured retention capacity probably exceeded the actual retention capacity of soil because laboratory conditions optimized the contact time between soil and test solutions. Geochemical modeling indicated that the primary mineralogical controls on the concentration of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff and subsurface flow were aluminum and iron oxides and strengite (if it exists). Aluminum and iron oxides bind phosphate in solution and strengite is an iron-phosphate mineral. The mineralization of organic phosphorus into dissolved inorganic forms could also supply phosphorus to surface runoff and subsurface flow. Phosphorus inputs to the plots during the study period were from precipitation and manure. Phosphorus inputs from precipitation were negligible. The loads of phosphorus to the plots from manure applications in May 1993 and May 1994 were 112 and 251 kilograms per acre for plots 2 and 3, respectively; about 60 percent of the load occurred in 1994. Phosphorus outputs in surface runoff differed between study plots. The cumulative yields of total phosphorus during the study period for plots 1, 2, and 3 were 1.12, 1.24, and 1.69 kilograms per acre, respectively. Differences between plots were primarily evident for dissolved yields of phosphorus. The percentage of the total phosphorus output in surface runoff that was in the dissolved phase varied from 6 percent for plot 1 to 26 percent for plot 3. The cumulative yields of dissolved phosphorus from plots 2 and 3 were 135 and 500 percent greater, respectively, than the dissolved yield from plot 1. Even though volumes of surface runoff were different on the plots, the primary cause of the difference between plots in the yield of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was differences in the concentration of dissolved phosphorus. After the second manure application, concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff on plots 2 and 3 were significantly higher than the concentration for plot 1. An increase in the concentration of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow from plots 2 and 3 was measured after manure applications. The mean concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow after the first manure application were 0.29, 0.57, and 1.45 milligrams per liter of phosphorus for plots 1, 2, and 3, respectively. The loss of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was related to the soil concentration of PAP. The model relating dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff to soil PAP indicated that concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff would exceed 0.1 milligram per liter if soil concentrations of PAP exceeded 9 parts per million; this PAP concentration was exceeded by each study plot. Over 50 percent of the variation of dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff was explained by soil concentrations of PAP in the 0-6-inch depth interval. The loss of suspended phosphorus in surface runoff was primarily affected by the particle-size distribution of suspended sediment in surface runoff. Surface runoff was enriched with fines relative to the soil matrix. Generally, over 90 percent of sediment in runoff was comprised of silt and clay particles; only 50-60 percent of particle sizes from the intact soil matrix were in the silt- to clay-size range. Concentrations of suspended phosphorus in surface runoff were not significantly related to soil concentrations of total phosphorus in the 0-6-inch depth interval. Concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in subsurface flow were also related to soil concentrations of PAP. The relation indicated that dissolved concentrations of phosphorus in subsurface flow would exceed 0.1 milligram per liter if soil concentrations of PAP in the 0-6-inch depth interval of soil were greater than 49 parts per million; this PAP concentration was exceeded by each study plot. The significant relation of high concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in water to soil concentrations of PAP indicated that soils with comparable concentrations of soil PAP would be potential sources of dissolved phosphorus to surface water and subsurface water tables. The percentage of the total phosphorus lost from a system in the dissolved form increased as soil concentrations of PAP increased. This indicates that best-management practices to reduce phosphorus losses from this system not only need to target suspended forms of phosphorus but also dissolved forms. Practices aimed at reducing the loss of dissolved phosphorus from the system increase in importance with an increase in soil concentrations of PAP.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Geohydrology of the unsaturated zone and simulated time of arrival of landfill leachate at the water table, Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Facility, U.S. Army Air Defense Artillery Center and Fort Bliss, El Paso County, Texas

The U.S. Air Defense Artillery Center and Fort Bliss Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Facility (MSWLF) is located about 10 miles northeast of downtown El Paso, Texas. The landfill is built on the Hueco Bolson, a deposit that yields water to five public-supply wells within 1.1 miles of the landfill boundary on all sides. The bolson deposits consist of lenses and mixtures of sand, clay, silt, gravel, and caliche. The unsaturated zone at the landfill is about 300 feet thick. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) and the Multimedia Exposure Assessment Model for Evaluating the Land Disposal of Wastes (MULTIMED) computer models were used to simulate the time of first arrival of landfill leachate at the water table. Site-specific data were collected for model input. At five sites on the landfill cover, hydraulic conductivity was measured by an in situ method; in addition, laboratory values were obtained for porosity, moisture content at field capacity, and moisture content at wilting point. Twenty-seven sediment samples were collected from two adjacent boreholes drilled near the southwest corner of the landfill. Of these, 23 samples were assumed to represent the unsaturated zone beneath the landfill. The core samples were analyzed in the laboratory for various characteristics required for the HELP and MULTIMED models: initial moisture content, dry bulk density, porosity, saturated hydraulic conductivity, moisture retention percentages at various suction values, total organic carbon, and pH. Parameters were calculated for the van Genuchten and Brooks-Corey equations that relate hydraulic conductivity to saturation. A reported recharge value of 0.008 inch per year was estimated on the basis of soil- water chloride concentration. The HELP model was implemented using input values that were based mostly on site-specific data or assumed in a conservative manner. Exceptions were the default values used for waste characteristics. Flow through the landfill was assumed to be at steady state. The HELP-estimated landfill leakage rate was 101.6 millimeters per year, approximately 500 times the estimated recharge rate for the area near the landfill. The MULTIMED model was implemented using input values that were based mainly on site-specific data and some conservatively assumed values. Landfill leakage was assumed to begin when the landfill was established and to continue at a steady-state rate of 101.6 millimeters per year as estimated by the HELP model. By using an assumed solute concentration in the leachate of 1 milligram per liter and assuming no delay or decay of solute, the solute serves as a tracer to indicate the first arrival of landfill leachate. The simulated first arrival of leachate at the water table was 204 to 210 years after the establishment of the landfill.

Texas↗

Documentation of UCODE: A computer code for universal inverse modeling

This report documents the computer program UCODE, which performs inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, using nonlinear regression. Any application model or set of models can be used; the only requirement is that they have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files and that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits. Application models can include pre-processors and post-processors as well as models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical, and so on), making UCODE extremely powerful. An estimated parameter can be a quantity that appears in the input files of the application model(s), or that can be used in conjunction with user-defined functions to calculate a quantity that appears in the input files. Observations to be matched in the regression can be any quantity for which a simulated equivalent value can be produced, and simulated equivalent values are calculated using values that appear in the application model output files and a set of additive and multiplicative functions. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be included in the regression. The nonlinear regression problem is solved by minimizing a weighted least- squares objective function with respect to the parameter values using a modified Gauss-Newton method. Sensitivities needed for the method are calculated approximately by forward or central differences, and problems and solutions related to this approximation are discussed. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1) diagnosing inadequate data and identifying parameters that probably cannot be estimated; (2) evaluating estimated parameter values; (3) evaluating the model representation of the actual processes; and (4) quantifying the likely uncertainty of model simulated values. UCODE is intended for use on any computer operating system: it consists of algorithms programmed in perl, a freeware language designed for text manipulation, and Fortran90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Characterization of water quality and simulation of temperature, nutrients, biochemical oxygen demand, and dissolved oxygen in the Wateree River, South Carolina, 1996-98

In May 1996, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the Kershaw County Water and Sewer Authority to characterize and simulate the water quality in the Wateree River, South Carolina. Longitudinal profiling of dissolved-oxygen concentrations during the spring and summer of 1996 revealed dissolved-oxygen minimums occurring upstream from the point-source discharges. The mean dissolved-oxygen decrease upstream from the effluent discharges was 2.0 milligrams per liter, and the decrease downstream from the effluent discharges was 0.2 milligram per liter. Several theories were investigated to obtain an improved understanding of the dissolved-oxygen dynamics in the upper Wateree River. Data suggest that the dissolved-oxygen concentration decrease is associated with elevated levels of oxygen-consuming nutrients and metals that are flowing into the Wateree River from Lake Wateree. Analysis of long-term streamflow and water-quality data collected at two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations suggests that no strong correlation exists between streamflow and dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the Wateree River. However, a strong negative correlation does exist between dissolved-oxygen concentrations and water temperature. Analysis of data from six South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control monitoring stations for 1980.95 revealed decreasing trends in ammonia nitrogen at all stations where data were available and decreasing trends in 5-day biochemical oxygen demand at three river stations. The influence of various hydrologic and point-source loading conditions on dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the Wateree River were determined by using results from water-quality simulations by the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model. The effects of five tributaries and four point-source discharges were included in the model. Data collected during two synoptic water-quality samplings on June 23.25 and August 11.13, 1997, were used to calibrate and validate the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model. The data include dye-tracer concentrations collected at six locations, stream-reaeration data collected at four locations, and water-quality and water-temperature data collected at nine locations. Hydraulic data for the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model were simulated by using the U.S. Geological Survey BRANCH one-dimensional, unsteady-flow model. Data that were used to calibrate and validate the BRANCH model included time-series of water-level and streamflow data at three locations. The domain of the hydraulic model and the transport model was a 57.3- and 43.5-mile reach of the river, respectively. A sensitivity analysis of the simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations to model coefficients and data inputs indicated that the simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations were most sensitive to changes in the boundary concentration inputs of water temperature and dissolved oxygen followed by sensitivity to the change in streamflow. A 35-percent increase in streamflow resulted in a negative normalized sensitivity index, indicating a decrease in dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations showed no significant sensitivity to changes in model input rate kinetics. To demonstrate the utility of the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model of the Wateree River, the model was used to simulate several hydrologic and water-quality scenarios to evaluate the effects on simulated dissolved-oxygen concentrations. The first scenario compared the 24-hour mean dissolved-oxygen concentrations for August 13, 1997, as simulated during the model validation, with simulations using two different streamflow patterns. The mean streamflow for August 13, 1997, was 2,000 cubic feet per second. Simulations were run using mean streamflows of 1,000 and 1,400 cubic feet per second while keeping the water-quality boundary conditions the same as were used during the validation simulations.

South Carolina↗