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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

USGS2001

Tampa Bay Integrated Science Pilot Study: wetland characterization

Coastal wetlands in Tampa Bay consist of mangrove forest and tidal salt marsh. Wetlands buffer storm surges, provide fish and wildlife habitat, and enhance water quality through the removal of water-borne nutrients and contaminants. Substantial areas of both mangrove and salt marsh have been lost to agricultural, residential and industrial development in this urban estuary. Wetlands restoration has been initiated in Tampa Bay. Baseline studies on the current condition of wetlands and historical and prehistorical information is needed for successful restoration planning and evaluation. A major objective of this component of the Tampa Bay pilot program was to characterize wetlands in Tampa Bay beginning with areas that differ in their degree of human-induced disturbance ( Fig. 1 ). The Alafia River area is urbanized, industrialized and dredged, whereas the Terra Ceia area has a history of agricultural use with associated soil berms and mosquito ditches, but has not been farmed for at least 20 years ( Fig. 2 ).

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Water availability for the Western United States--Key scientific challenges

In the Western United States, the availability of water has become a serious concern for many communities and rural areas. Near population centers, surface-water supplies are fully appropriated, and many communities are dependent upon ground water drawn from storage, which is an unsustainable strategy. Water of acceptable quality is increasingly hard to find because local sources are allocated to prior uses, depleted by overpumping, or diminished by drought stress. Some of the inherent characteristics of the West add complexity to the task of securing water supplies. The Western States, including the arid Southwest, have the most rapid population growth in the United States. The climate varies widely in the West, but it is best known for its low precipitation, aridity, and drought. There is evidence that the climate is warming, which will have consequences for Western water supplies, such as increased minimum streamflow and earlier snowmelt events in snow-dominated basins. The potential for departures from average climatic conditions threatens to disrupt society and local to regional economies. The appropriative rights doctrine governs the management of water in most Western States, although some aspects of the riparian doctrine are being incorporated. The 'use it or lose it' provisions of Western water law discourage conservation and make the reallocation of water to instream environmental uses more difficult. The hydrologic sciences have defined the interconnectedness of ground water and surface water, yet these resources are still administered separately by most States. The definition of water availability has been expanded to include sustaining riparian ecosystems and individual endangered species, which are disproportionately represented in the Western States. Federal reserved rights, common in the West because of the large amount of Federal land, exist with quite senior priority dates whether or not water is currently being used. A major challenge for water users in the West is that these reserved rights may supersede other existing users. The minimum amount of water required, however, to sustain native peoples, a riparian system, or an endangered species eventually will need to be known in order to manage the available water supply. Periodic inventory and assessment of the amounts and trends of water available in surface water and ground water are needed to support water management. There is a widespread perception that the amount of available water is diminishing with time. This and other perceptions about water availability should be replaced by objective data and analysis. Some data are presented here for the major Western rivers that show that flows are not decreasing in most streams and rivers in the West. Systematic information is lacking to make broad assessments of ground-water availability, but available data for specific aquifers indicate that these aquifers are being depleted, especially near population centers. The complexity added to the issue of Western water availability by these and other factors gives rise to a significant role of science. Science has played a role in support of Western water development from the beginning, and the role has evolved and changed over time as society's values have changed. In this report, the role of science is discussed in three phases: (1) development and construction, (2) consequences and environmental awareness, and (3) sustainability. The development and construction phase includes some historical accounting of water development in the West and shows how some precedents set in those early days are still applied today.

western United States↗

USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey science vision for native freshwater mussel research in the United States

Executive Summary North America is a global center for native freshwater mussel (order Unionida, hereinafter “mussels”) diversity, with more than 350 species. Mussels are among the most imperiled fauna on the planet. Reasons for both local and widespread declines in mussels are mostly unknown, although the threats may include habitat loss and fragmentation, diseases, environmental contaminants, altered flow regimes, migration barriers to larval hosts, non-native species, and climate change. Over the past three decades, research on mussels has been substantial. Nevertheless, current conservation and management efforts are limited by significant information gaps. For example, the effects of emerging stressors on mussels are largely unknown and identifying when habitats are rehabilitated and suitable for reestablishment of mussels remains challenging. Additionally, historical and current information on the distribution, taxonomy, and life histories are often unreliable or lacking altogether, and more reliable information is needed for many species. We identified focal research themes, goals, and objectives where research on mussels is needed based on information gaps identified through conversations with resource partners across local, regional, and national organizations. Research on biodiversity seeks to enhance the diversity of mussel species and populations to support healthy aquatic ecosystems. Research on emerging stressors seeks to improve the understanding of how mussel species, populations, and communities respond to emerging stressors, including environmental contaminants and climate change. Research on conservation seeks to enhance the recovery of species and populations and to identify data gaps limiting the conservation of mussels and their habitats. Mussels are in urgent need of proactive conservation because they are an integral part of our natural heritage, enhance biodiversity, and provide vital ecological services that support freshwater ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been, and continues to be, a leader in mussel research. Although the USGS is well suited to address the broad-scale multidisciplinary research needed to conserve mussels, the USGS has had substantial loss of scientists with mussel expertise over the past 20 years. However, the breadth of the USGS expertise on mussels can be leveraged internally across other USGS mission and program areas and externally across research partners. Given the breadth and scope of the issues facing mussels across the United States, the research themes outlined in this science vision can only be accomplished through extensive collaborations between the USGS and the full spectrum of natural resource partners, including other Federal and State agencies, Tribal organizations, universities, industries, and nongovernmental organizations.

Circular↗

USGS2025

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2013

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2010

Earthquakes in South Carolina and Vicinity 1698-2009

This map summarizes more than 300 years of South Carolina earthquake history. It is one in a series of three similar State earthquake history maps. The current map and the previous two for Virginia and Ohio are accessible at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1017/ and http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1221/. All three State earthquake maps were collaborative efforts between the U.S. Geological Survey and respective State agencies. Work on the South Carolina map was done in collaboration with the Department of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina. As with the two previous maps, the history of South Carolina earthquakes was derived from letters, journals, diaries, newspaper accounts, academic journal articles, and, beginning in the early 20th century, instrumental recordings (seismograms). All historical (preinstrumental) earthquakes that were large enough to be felt have been located based on felt reports. Some of these events caused damage to buildings and their contents. The more recent widespread use of seismographs has allowed many smaller earthquakes, previously undetected, to be recorded and accurately located. The seismicity map shows historically located and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in and near South Carolina

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Methods for computing water-quality concentrations and loads at sites operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Kansas Water Science Center

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Kansas Water Science Center (KSWSC) has published time-series computations of water-quality concentrations and loads based on in situ sensor data since 1995. Water-quality constituent concentrations or densities are computed using regression models that relate in situ sensor values to laboratory analyses of periodically collected samples. These regression models currently (2024) follow no uniform published guidance and are individually documented through USGS reports. This report describes updated (2024) procedures designed to improve the consistency, quality, and timeliness of computed continuous water-quality data produced by the USGS KSWSC. Beginning in 2024, models developed by the USGS KSWSC that follow specific procedures and requirements related to sample collection, model fit, and model documentation outlined in this report are planned to be published and stored in the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality Data for the Nation Data Service. This report also describes USGS KSWSC procedures for evaluating and publishing time-series water-quality computations after initial model development and documentation. This guidance can be used to improve USGS KSWSC model development and data computation consistency and streamline the time-series water-quality computation process from model development to publication.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2020

Simulation of discharge, water-surface elevations, and water temperatures for the St. Louis River estuary, Minnesota-Wisconsin, 2016–17

The St. Louis River estuary is a large freshwater estuary, next to Duluth, Minnesota, that encompasses the headwaters of Lake Superior. The St. Louis River estuary is one of the most complex and compromised near-shore systems in the upper Great Lakes with a long history of environmental contamination caused by logging, mining, paper mills, and other heavy industrial activities. Presently (2020), a widely available, science-based assessment tool capable of evaluating ecosystem-level responses to remediation and restoration projects has not existed for the estuary. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) built a predictive, mechanistic, three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the estuary using the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code framework. In the current version, the model can simulate continuous discharge, water-surface elevations, water temperature, and flow velocity, although the modular framework allows for future additions of water-quality modeling. The model was calibrated using data collected from April 2016 through November 2016 and validated with data collected from April 2017 through November 2017. The four types of data used to evaluate model performance were water-surface elevations, discharge, water temperature, and flow velocities. Streamflow and temperature boundary condition data included a mixture of USGS streamgage data, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources gage data, and estimates derived from the gage data. The model was able to simulate the water-surface elevations with generally good agreement between the simulated and measured values for both years at the daily time step. Specifically, the model was able to demonstrate excellent agreement with the measured data with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients greater than 0.8 for all three locations; however, the model was unable to produce hourly water-surface elevations with such accuracy for 2016–17. Discharge was more dynamic than the water-surface elevations, both for the measured and simulated data. Generally, most of the discharge ranged from −650 to 1,200 cubic meters per second, but the constantly changing flux exiting the estuary into Lake Superior (positive flows) and entering the estuary from Lake Superior (negative flows) occurred throughout the year. Even upstream at the St. Louis River at Oliver, Wisconsin, gage (USGS station 0402403250), the effect of flows into the estuary from Lake Superior did occur, demonstrating the strong effect of the Lake Superior seiche on flows for the estuary. From a performance standpoint, the model was able to simulate discharge with generally good agreement in both years, although the 2017 validation was better than the 2016 calibration period. For the daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, the simulated values were 0.98, 0.62, 0.49, and 0.71 for the Oliver gage; the Superior Bay entry channel at Superior, Wisc., (USGS station 464226092005600); the Superior Bay Duluth Ship Canal at Duluth, Minn., (USGS station 464646092052900); and total entries (combination of the Superior entry and Duluth entry), respectively. For the hourly evaluation criteria, the model performed poorly, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients less than 0 for the two entries into Lake Superior; therefore, as a predictor of discharge at the hourly scale, the model performed worse than using the measured data average. Similar to discharge, the model was a good predictor of flow velocity at the daily time scale but had difficulty matching the measured data at the hourly scale. For discharge and flow velocity, matching at subdaily time steps for a system as complicated as the St. Louis River estuary is considered difficult because the match is highly sensitive to coordinating the exact measurement location to the simulated value. The final calibration target was water temperature, calibrated for the Oliver gage and the Duluth entry. For calibration purposes, the Duluth entry was the more important water temperature target because the Oliver gage was more of an internal check on the model. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients for the Duluth entry were high; hourly Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients at the Duluth entry were either at or greater than 0.7 for both years, and daily values were 0.84 and 0.82 for 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS1995

Handbook of ecotoxicology

The Handbook of Ecotoxicology offers 34 chapters with contributions from over 50 selected international experts. The book is divided into four major sections: I. Quantifying and Measuring Ecotoxicological Effects, II. Contaminant Sources and Effects, III. Case Histories and Ecosystem Surveys, and IV. Methods for Making Estimates and Predictability in Ecotoxicology. Concepts and methodology are presented for many types of aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity test protocols for both controlled and field assessments. Chapters are offered on such diverse topics as sediment and soil ecotoxicity, landscape indicators, biomonitoring, and use of current bioindicators. The roles of deforestation and global warming, pathogens and disease in ecotoxicology, abiotic factors, urban runoff, predictive ecotoxicology, population modeling, and restoration ecology are discussed. This book was designed to serve as a reference book for students entering the fields of ecotoxicology, aquatic toxicology, terrestrial wildlife toxicology, and other environmental sciences. Many portions of this handbook will serve as a convenient reference text for established investigators, resource managers, and those involved in risk assessment and risk management within regulatory agencies and the private sector.

Book↗

USGS2025

Biodiversity on public lands: How community science can help

Species inventories are crucial for conservation but are difficult to assemble and maintain. Bioblitzes, which encourage the public to document biodiversity in a particular area and timeframe, may offer useful information but their integration with other datasets poses challenges. We investigated the potential contribution of bioblitzes to natural resource management using observations from the United States National Park Service (NPS) 2016 Centennial Bioblitz. Through automated cross-referencing over 19,000 iNaturalist “research-grade” observations from 107 national parks with existing park inventory lists, we matched 86% of species documented in the Bioblitz to NPS species lists, based on current taxonomy, and matched another 6% of species using alternative scientific names using our matching process in R. Of the remaining 13.5% that did not match the NPS species lists, we manually found that 84% of the unmatched species were found within the lists or were outside the boundaries of the park, identifying 141 native species that were unrecorded in NPS species lists. Many introduced species were recorded; they were more likely to be documented in parks closer to cities. Parks near cities also drew more participants. Our study shows how public participation, through iNaturalist and bioblitzes, can facilitate biodiversity monitoring across large spatial scales.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS1999

Trees, chemistry, and prehistory in the American Southwest

At least 200 000 trees were used in the building construction in Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, from about (AD) 850-1150. A large portion of these construction timbers were transported 50 km or more and the harvesting location(s) is not known. We argue that a feasible method for determining the wood source areas is to chemically characterize the possible source areas using modern wood and then attempt to match the prehistoric timbers to the modern signatures. This paper establishes the feasibility of this method. ICP-AES was employed to obtain element concentration values for 29 elements, from 62 trees, on three bedrock types. We conclude that it is possible to isolate the variation due to lithology if one controls for wood type (bark, sapwood, heartwood). In addition, ICP-MS was used for the analysis of a small sample of ancient wood. Data from these determinations are presented and the results indicate that the elemental variation is consistent with the most current model of wood use practices in Chaco Canyon. The methods pioneered here should be broadly applicable for determining wood source areas.

Journal of Archaeological Science↗

USGS2022

Editorial: Plant phenology shifts and their ecological and climatic consequences

Climate change is causing plant phenology to shift, with consequences for ecosystems and the Earth’s climate. Over the last decades, the timing of many important phenological events has advanced in spring, such as leaf emergence and flowering, or been delayed in fall, such as leaf coloration and leaf fall. The consequences of such phenological shifts are still largely unknown, but are hypothesized to have cascading effects on ecosystems, carbon and water cycles, and Earths’ climate. With this research topic, we aimed to synthesize and inspire innovative research in plant phenology to address research questions and challenges on the consequences of phenological shifts on ecosystem function and local hydrology. The articles presented here improve our understanding of the physiological mechanisms responsible for the current phenological changes in spring and fall and provide insight into some of the consequences of these changes on hydrological cycles and ecosystem functioning.

Frontiers in Plant Science↗

USGS2001

Relations among geology, physiography, land use, and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo and Current River systems, Missouri and Arkansas

This study investigated links between drainage-basin characteristics and stream habitat conditions in the Buffalo National River, Arkansas and the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, Missouri. It was designed as an associative study - the two parks were divided into their principle tributary drainage basins and then basin-scale and stream-habitat data sets were gathered and compared between them. Analyses explored the relative influence of different drainage-basin characteristics on stream habitat conditions. They also investigated whether a relation between land use and stream characteristics could be detected after accounting for geologic and physiographic differences among drainage basins. Data were collected for three spatial scales: tributary drainage basins, tributary stream reaches, and main-stem river segments of the Current and Buffalo Rivers. Tributary drainage-basin characteristics were inventoried using a Geographic Information System (GIS) and included aspects of drainage-basin physiography, geology, and land use. Reach-scale habitat surveys measured channel longitudinal and cross-sectional geometry, substrate particle size and embeddedness, and indicators of channel stability. Segment-scale aerial-photo based inventories measured gravel-bar area, an indicator of coarse sediment load, along main-stem rivers. Relations within and among data sets from each spatial scale were investigated using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. Study basins encompassed physiographically distinct regions of the Ozarks. The Buffalo River system drains parts of the sandstone-dominated Boston Mountains and of the carbonate-dominated Springfield and Salem Plateaus. The Current River system is within the Salem Plateau. Analyses of drainage-basin variables highlighted the importance of these physiographic differences and demonstrated links among geology, physiography, and land-use patterns. Buffalo River tributaries have greater relief, steeper slopes, and more streamside bluffs than the Current River tributaries. Land use patterns in both river systems correlate with physiography - cleared land area is negatively associated with drainage-basin average slope. Both river systems are dominantly forested (0-35 per-cent cleared land), however, the potential for landscape disturbance may be greater in the Buffalo River system where a larger proportion of cleared land occurs on steep slopes (>15 degrees). When all drainage basins are grouped together, reach-scale channel characteristics show the strongest relations with drainage-basin physiography. Bankfull channel geometry and residual pool dimensions are positively correlated with drainage area and topographic relief variables. After accounting for differences in drainage area, channel dimensions in Buffalo River tributaries tend to be larger than in Current River tributaries. This trend is consistent with the flashy runoff and large storm flows that can be generated in rugged, sandstone-dominate terrain. Substrate particle size is also most strongly associated with physiography; particle size is positively correlated with topographic relief variables. When tributaries are subset by river system, relations with geology and land use variables become apparent. Buffalo River tributaries with larger proportions of carbonate bedrock and cleared land area have shallower channels, better-sorted, gravel-rich substrate, and more eroding banks than those with little cleared land and abundant sandstone bedrock. Gravel-bar area on the Buffalo River main stem was also larger within 1-km of carbonate-rich tributary junctions. Because geology and cleared land are themselves correlated, relations with anthropogenic and natural factors could often not be separated. Channel characteristics in the Current River system show stronger associations with physiography than with land use. Channels are shallower and have finer substrates in the less rugged, karst-rich, western basins than in the

Arkansas, Missouri↗

USGS2011

Search for and limits on plume activity on Mimas, Tethys, and Dione with the Cassini Visual Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS)

Cassini Visual Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) observations of Mimas, Tethys, and Dione obtained during the nominal and extended missions at large solar phase angles were analyzed to search for plume activity. No forward scattered peaks in the solar phase curves of these satellites were detected. The upper limit on water vapor production for Mimas and Tethys is one order of magnitude less than the production for Enceladus. For Dione, the upper limit is two orders of magnitude less, suggesting this world is as inert as Rhea (Pitman, K.M., Buratti, B.J., Mosher, J.A., Bauer, J.M., Momary, T., Brown, R.H., Nicholson, P.D., Hedman, M.M. [2008]. Astrophys. J. Lett. 680, L65–L68). Although the plumes are best seen at ∼2.0 μm, Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) Narrow Angle Camera images obtained at the same time as the VIMS data were also inspected for these features. None of the Cassini ISS images shows evidence for plumes. The absence of evidence for any Enceladus-like plumes on the medium-sized saturnian satellites cannot absolutely rule out current geologic activity. The activity may below our threshold of detection, or it may be occurring but not captured on the handful of observations at large solar phase angles obtained for each moon. Many VIMS and ISS images of Enceladus at large solar phase angles, for example, do not contain plumes, as the active “tiger stripes” in the south pole region are pointed away from the spacecraft at these times. The 7-year Cassini Solstice Mission is scheduled to gather additional measurements at large solar phase angles that are capable of revealing activity on the saturnian moons.

Icarus↗

USGS2011

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2020

Biofilms provide new insight into pesticide occurrence in streams and links to aquatic ecological communities

Streambed sediment is commonly analyzed to assess occurrence of hydrophobic pesticides and risks to aquatic communities. However, stream biofilms also have the potential to accumulate pesticides and may be consumed by aquatic organisms. To better characterize risks to aquatic life, the U.S. Geological Survey Regional Stream Quality Assessment measured 93 current-use and 3 legacy pesticides in bed sediment and biofilm from 54 small streams in California across a range of land-use settings. On average, 4 times as many current-use pesticides were detected in biofilm at a site (median of 2) as in sediment (median of 0.5). Of 31 current-use pesticides detected, 20 were detected more frequently in biofilm than sediment and 10 equally frequently. Pyrethroids as a class were the most potentially toxic to benthic invertebrates, and of the nine pyrethroids detected, seven occurred more frequently in biofilm than sediment. We constructive General Additive Models to investigate relations between pesticides and six metrics of benthic community structure. Pesticides in biofilm improved fit in four of the six models, and pesticides in sediment improved fit in two. The results indicate that sampling of stream biofilms can complement bed-sediment sampling by identifying more current-use pesticides present and better estimating ecological risks.

California↗

USGS2008

Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ???15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling 'millions of undernourished people' as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS1967

Geochemical evidence of present-day serpentinization

Ultrabasic ( p H > 11) water issues from some fresh ultramafic bodies. The properties of the ultrabasic solutions are believed to be due to current reactions yielding serpentine from primary olivines and pyroxenes. The low concentrations of divalent iron. divalent magnesium, and dissolved silica from the serpentinization require an increase in rock volume.

Science↗