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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Use of fatty acid analysis to determine dispersal of Caspian Terns in the Columbia River Basin, U.S.A.

Lethal control, which has been used to reduce local abundances of animals in conflict with humans or with endangered species, may not achieve management goals if animal movement is not considered. In populations with emigration and immigration, lethal control may induce compensatory immigration, if the source of attraction remains unchanged. Within the Columbia River Basin (Washington, U.S.A.), avian predators forage at dams because dams tend to reduce rates of emigration of juvenile salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp. ), artificially concentrating these prey. We used differences in fatty acid profiles between Caspian Terns ( Hydroprogne caspia ) at coastal and inland breeding colonies and terns culled by a lethal control program at a mid‐Columbia River dam to infer dispersal patterns. We modeled the rate of loss of fatty acid biomarkers, which are fatty acids that can be traced to a single prey species or groups of species, to infer whether and when terns foraging at dams had emigrated from the coast. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling showed that coastal terns had high levels of C 20 and C 22 monounsaturated fatty acids, whereas fatty acids of inland breeders were high in C18:3n3, C20:4n6, and C22:5n3. Models of the rate of loss of fatty acid showed that approximately 60% of the terns collected at Rock Island Dam were unlikely to have bred successfully at local (inland) sites, suggesting that terns foraging at dams come from an extensive area. Fatty acid biomarkers may provide accurate information about patterns of dispersal in animal populations and may be extremely valuable in cases where populations differ demonstrably in prey base.

Washington↗
USGS2012

Species, functional groups, and thresholds in ecological resilience

The cross-scale resilience model states that ecological resilience is generated in part from the distribution of functions within and across scales in a system. Resilience is a measure of a system's ability to remain organized around a particular set of mutually reinforcing processes and structures, known as a regime. We define scale as the geographic extent over which a process operates and the frequency with which a process occurs. Species can be categorized into functional groups that are a link between ecosystem processes and structures and ecological resilience. We applied the cross-scale resilience model to avian species in a grassland ecosystem. A species’ morphology is shaped in part by its interaction with ecological structure and pattern, so animal body mass reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of resources. We used the log-transformed rank-ordered body masses of breeding birds associated with grasslands to identify aggregations and discontinuities in the distribution of those body masses. We assessed cross-scale resilience on the basis of 3 metrics: overall number of functional groups, number of functional groups within an aggregation, and the redundancy of functional groups across aggregations. We assessed how the loss of threatened species would affect cross-scale resilience by removing threatened species from the data set and recalculating values of the 3 metrics. We also determined whether more function was retained than expected after the loss of threatened species by comparing observed loss with simulated random loss in a Monte Carlo process. The observed distribution of function compared with the random simulated loss of function indicated that more functionality in the observed data set was retained than expected. On the basis of our results, we believe an ecosystem with a full complement of species can sustain considerable species losses without affecting the distribution of functions within and across aggregations, although ecological resilience is reduced. We propose that the mechanisms responsible for shaping discontinuous distributions of body mass and the nonrandom distribution of functions may also shape species losses such that local extinctions will be nonrandom with respect to the retention and distribution of functions and that the distribution of function within and across aggregations will be conserved despite extinctions.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2012

Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2012

Projected climate-induced habitat loss for salmonids in the John Day River network, Oregon, U.S.A.

Climate change will likely have profound effects on cold-water species of freshwater fishes. As temperatures rise, cold-water fish distributions may shift and contract in response. Predicting the effects of projected stream warming in stream networks is complicated by the generally poor correlation between water temperature and air temperature. Spatial dependencies in stream networks are complex because the geography of stream processes is governed by dimensions of flow direction and network structure. Therefore, forecasting climate-driven range shifts of stream biota has lagged behind similar terrestrial modeling efforts. We predicted climate-induced changes in summer thermal habitat for 3 cold-water fish species—juvenile Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. mykiss, and Salvelinus confluentus, respectively)—in the John Day River basin, northwestern United States. We used a spatially explicit statistical model designed to predict water temperature in stream networks on the basis of flow and spatial connectivity. The spatial distribution of stream temperature extremes during summers from 1993 through 2009 was largely governed by solar radiation and interannual extremes of air temperature. For a moderate climate change scenario, estimated declines by 2100 in the volume of habitat for Chinook salmon, rainbow trout, and bull trout were 69–95%, 51–87%, and 86–100%, respectively. Although some restoration strategies may be able to offset these projected effects, such forecasts point to how and where restoration and management efforts might focus.

Oregon↗
USGS2012

Rapid increases and time-lagged declines in amphibian occupancy after wildfire

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of drought and wildfire. Aquatic and moisture-sensitive species, such as amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to these modified disturbance regimes because large wildfires often occur during extended droughts and thus may compound environmental threats. However, understanding of the effects of wildfires on amphibians in forests with long fire-return intervals is limited. Numerous stand-replacing wildfires have occurred since 1988 in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.), where we have conducted long-term monitoring of amphibians. We measured responses of 3 amphibian species to fires of different sizes, severity, and age in a small geographic area with uniform management. We used data from wetlands associated with 6 wildfires that burned between 1988 and 2003 to evaluate whether burn extent and severity and interactions between wildfire and wetland isolation affected the distribution of breeding populations. We measured responses with models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate occupancy during prefire (0-4 years) and different postfire recovery periods. For the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) and Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris), occupancy was not affected for 6 years after wildfire. But 7-21 years after wildfire, occupancy for both species decreased ≥ 25% in areas where >50% of the forest within 500 m of wetlands burned. In contrast, occupancy of the boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas) tripled in the 3 years after low-elevation forests burned. This increase in occupancy was followed by a gradual decline. Our results show that accounting for magnitude of change and time lags is critical to understanding population dynamics of amphibians after large disturbances. Our results also inform understanding of the potential threat of increases in wildfire frequency or severity to amphibians in the region.

Montana↗
USGS2012

Detecting insect pollinator declines on regional and global scales

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200-250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2-5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2007

Evidence for exploitative competition: Comparative foraging behavior and roosting ecology of short-tailed fruit bats (Phyllostomidae)

Chestnut short-tailed bats, Carollia castanea, and Seba's short-tailed bats, C. perspicillata (Phyllostomidae), were radio-tracked (N = 1593 positions) in lowland rain forest at Tiputini Biodiversity Station, Orellana Province, Ecuador. For 11 C. castanea, mean home range was 6.8 ?? 2.2 ha, mean core-use area was 1.7 ?? 0.8 ha, and mean long axis across home range was 438 ?? 106 m. For three C. perspicillata, mean home range was 5.5 ?? 1.7 ha, mean core-use area was 1.3 ?? 0.6 ha, and mean long axis was 493 ?? 172 m. Groups of less than five C. castanea occupied day-roosts in earthen cavities that undercut banks the Tiputini River. Carollia perspicillata used tree hollows and buildings as day-roosts. Interspecific and intraspecific overlap among short-tailed bats occurred in core-use areas associated with clumps of fruiting Piper hispidum (peppers) and Cecropia sciadophylla. Piper hispidum seeds were present in 80 percent of the fecal samples from C. castanea and 56 percent of samples from C. perspicillata. Carollia perspicillata handled pepper fruits significantly faster than C. castanea; however, C. castanea commenced foraging before C. perspicillata emerged from day-roosts. Evidence for exploitative competition between C. castanea and C. perspicillata is suggested by our observations that 95 percent of ripe P. hispidum fruits available at sunset disappear before sunrise (N = 74 marked fruits). Piper hispidum plants produced zero to 12 ripe infructescences per plant each night during peak production. Few ripe infructescences of P. hispidum were available during the dry season; however, ripe infructescences of C. sciadophylla, remained abundant. ?? 2007 The Author(s) Journal compilation ?? 2007 by The Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation.

Biotropica↗
USGS2004

How we can learn more about the Cerulean Warbler ( Dendroica cerulea )

A sense of urgency attends the study of species of concern, like the Cerulean Warbler ( Dendroica cerulea ). Sharpened by Robbins et al. (1992) and Hamel (1992), such concern prompted the U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to commission a status assessment of the Cerulean Warbler (Hamel 2000a). Shortly after the status review was published, a petition (Ruley 2000) was delivered to the USFWS urging that the species be listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. The account of the Cerulean Warbler in the Birds of North America series also appeared that year (Hamel 2000b). Substantial attention is currently focused on the species, and the Cerulean Warbler Technical Group (CWTG) was formed in 2002 (see Appendix). This overview consists of two parts. The first, prepared primarily by P.B.H., attempts to summarize current knowledge and suggest productive avenues to pursue in our efforts to understand the biology and conserve populations of Cerulean Warblers. The second, written by D.K.D. and P.D.K., is a summary of the structure and priorities of the CWTG, an organization that can spur and facilitate research and conservation action directed at this species and serve as a model for conservation of other forest birds (Appendix). Further information on Cerulean Warblers and activities of the Cerulean Warbler Technical Group can be found on the CWTG website (see Acknowledgments).

The Auk↗
USGS2017

The American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) Working Group: 15 years of collaborative focal species research and management

The American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) Working Group formed spontaneously in 2001 as coastal waterbird biologists recognized the potential for American Oystercatchers to serve as focal species for collaborative research and management. Accomplishments over the past 15 years include the establishment of rangewide surveys, color-banding protocols, mark-resight studies, a revision of the Birds of North America species account, and new mechanisms for sharing ideas and data. Collaborations among State, Federal, and private sector scientists, natural resource managers, and dedicated volunteers have provided insights into the biology and conservation of American Oystercatchers in the United States and abroad that would not have been possible without the relationships formed through the Working Group. These accomplishments illustrate how broad collaborative approaches and the engagement of the public are key elements of effective shorebird conservation programs.

Waterbirds↗
USGS2007

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: 2006-2010

Executive Summary The mission of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is to provide scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales to inform biologically sound conservation and management actions. Determining population trends, relative abundance, and distributions of North American avifauna is critical for identifying conservation priorities, determining appropriate conservation actions, and evaluating those actions. The BBS program, jointly coordinated by the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada’s Canadian Wildlife Service, provides the U.S. and Canadian Federal governments, state and provincial agencies, other conservation practitioners, and the general public with science-based avian population trend estimates and other information for regional and national species’ population assessments. Despite the demonstrated value of the BBS for furthering avian conservation across North America, its importance is often underappreciated, and it is underfunded compared with many other government-supported programs that report on status of the environment. Today, BBS resources, adjusted for inflation, are below the amount allocated in the 1970s and are still only sufficient to support two biologists. Yet the number of routes, participants, data, and data requests has quadrupled. Data and information management and delivery requirements and security concerns, non-existent in 1966, impose further demands on BBS resources. In addition, the Mexican expansion of the BBS offers new hope for a truly continental approach to avian conservation, but also brings additional challenges. Meeting the goals of this plan will take cooperation among myriad stakeholders; yet, even with collaboration, most objectives of this plan will be unattainable if BBS program support is not increased. The BBS developed this strategic plan to help set priorities and identify resources required for the program to continue to meet the evolving needs of the conservation community for information on bird population change. By setting clear goals, strategies, and measures of success, this plan provides a cohesive framework and vision for maintenance and development of the BBS. The plan identifies two major goals for the BBS, with a number of strategies and objectives to achieve these goals. Over the next 5 years, progress made in addressing each long-term goal and its associated 5-year strategies and objectives will gage the plan’s success. Specific actions, projected outcomes, and measures of success related to accomplishing these are outlined in Table 1, with a timeline in Table 2. The two main goals for the program, with a summary of the strategies to achieve them, are: Goal 1: Collect scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of North American bird populations at continental and regional scales. The North American Breeding Bird Survey will continue to support North American natural resource conservation through the collection of scientifically credible measures of the status and trends of continental bird populations. While doing this, the BBS will work to improve the science behind the program to better meet its mission and the changing needs of the avian conservation community. In partnership with collaborators, the BBS will address detection probability bias and habitat bias, improve analytical methods, and more fully assess and account for observer quality. Moreover, the BBS will improve the quality and breadth of avian population data through strategic increases in route density and the establishment of a Mexican BBS program. Goal 2: Ensure BBS data and analytical results are widely available and easily accessible for use by the avian conservation and management communities. At the heart of the BBS lies a four-million-record database containing more than 40 years of data on more than 600 bird species. These data are of no value if not well maintained, appropriately analyzed, and widely and easily accessible. The USGS has greatly improved data management and accessibility in recent years. Trend estimates were first made available via the Internet in the mid-1990s, followed closely by the raw data with baseline metadata and standard operating procedures. Nevertheless, numerous enhancements to data management and the usability of BBS results will greatly improve the ability of the BBS to serve avian conservation goals. The BBS needs to ensure that BBS data and results presented on the web site use the best data-management practices and statistical methods, with adequate documentation for users to understand them and any differences between different trend estimates. Moreover, the BBS needs to increase communication with BBS partners and stakeholders to ensure that it continues to meet the avian population status and trends needs of the conservation community and to encourage the development of new products. Working with collaborators, the BBS will develop tools for integrating environmental parameters like habitat change into the analyses, and for integrating BBS data with other avian survey results. In addition, the BBS will continue to improve data and database management through the incorporation of additional data and data fields, such as georeferenced stop locations and more complete metadata for the raw data and results, thus enhancing the uses that can be made of the data.

Circular↗
USGS2002

Extirpations of grizzly bears in the contiguous United States of America, 1850-2000

We investigated factors associated with the distribution of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) in 1850 and their extirpation during 1850&ndash;1920 and 1920&ndash;1970 in the contiguous United States. We used autologistic regression to describe relations between grizzly bear range in 1850, 1920, and 1970 and potential explanatory factors specified for a comprehensive grid of cells, each 900 km 2 in size. We also related persistence, 1920&ndash;1970, to range size and shape. Grizzly bear range in 1850 was positively related to occurrence in mountainous ecoregions and the ranges of oaks ( Quercus spp.), pi&ntilde;on pines ( Pinus edulis and P. monophylla ), whitebark pine ( P. albicaulis ), and bison ( Bos bison ) and negatively related to occurrence in prairie and hot desert ecoregions. Relations with salmon ( Oncorynchus spp.) range and human factors were complex. Persistence of grizzly bear range, 1850&ndash;1970, was positively related to occurrence in the Rocky Mountains, whitebark pine range, and local size of grizzly bear range at the beginning of each period, and negatively related to number of humans and the ranges of bison, salmon, and pi&ntilde;on pines. We speculate that foods affected persistence primarily by influencing the frequency of contact between humans and bears. With respect to current conservation, grizzly bears survived from 1920 to 1970 most often where ranges at the beginning of this period were either larger than 20,000 km 2 or larger than 7,000 km 2 but with a ratio of perimeter to area of <2. Without reductions in human lethality after 1970, there would have been no chance that core grizzly bear range would be as extensive as it is now. Although grizzly bear range in the Yellowstone region is currently the most robust of any to potential future increases in human lethality, bears in this region are threatened by the loss of whitebark pine.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Mont↗
USGS2003

Response of vegetation and breeding birds to the removal of cattle on the San Pedro River, Arizona (U.S.A.)

In late 1987 cattle were removed from the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area ( NCA ) in southeastern Arizona ( U.S.A. ). We monitored vegetation density and abundance of birds during the breeding season during 1986a??1990 in riparian, mesquite grassland, and Chihuahuan desert-scrub communities in the NCA. The density of herbaceous vegetation increased four- to six-fold in riparian and mesquite grassland communities. Little change occurred in herbaceous vegetation in desert scrub, or in the density of shrubs or trees in any of the communities. Of 61 bird species for which sufficient data were collected, mean detections per kilometer increased for 42 species, 26 significantly, and decreased for 19 species, 8 significantly. The number of individuals of all avian species detected on surveys increased each year from 103/kilometer in 1986 to 221/kilometer in 1991, an average annual increase of 23% ( p < 0.001 ). The largest increases occurred in riparian species, open-cup nesters, Neotropical migrants, and insectivores. Species of the Chihuahuan desert-scrub, in which vegetation changed the least, showed the smallest increases. Only a few of the species showed increasing regional trends for the same period, as demonstrated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey; thus, increases on the San Pedro Riparian NCA were likely caused by the change in local conditions, not by regional effects. Our results suggest that removing cattle from riparian areas in the southwestern United States can have profound benefits for breeding birds.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2006

Landscape context mediates influence of local food abundance on wetland use by wintering shorebirds in an agricultural valley

While it is widely understood that local abundance of benthic invertebrates can greatly influence the distribution and abundance of wetland birds, no studies have examined if wetland landscape context can mediate this relationship. We studied the influence of wetland food abundance and landscape context on use of agricultural wetlands by wintering dunlin (Calidris alpina) and killdeer (Charadrius vociferus) in the Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA, over two winters (1999a??2000, 2000a??2001) of differing rainfall and subsequent habitat distribution. We monitored bird use (frequency of occurrence and abundance) at a sample of wetlands differing in local food abundance (density and biomass) and landscape context [adjacent shorebird habitat (defined as ha of wet habitat with less than 50% vegetative cover and within a 2-km radius) and nearest neighbor distance]. We evaluated predictive models for bird use using linear regression and the Cp criterion to select the most parsimonious model. During the dry winter (2000a??2001), dunlin exhibited greater use of sites with higher invertebrate density and biomass but also with more adjacent shorebird habitat and closest to a wetland neighbor. However, neither landscape context nor food abundance were important predictors of dunlin use during the wet winter (1999a??2000). Use of sites by killdeer was unrelated to either local food abundance or landscape context measures during both winters. Our findings contribute to a growing recognition of the importance of landscape structure to wetland birds and highlight a number of implications for the spatial planning and enhancement of wetlands using a landscape approach.

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2006

A spatially explicit decision support model for restoration of forest bird habitat

The historical area of bottomland hardwood forest in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley has been reduced by >75%. Agricultural production was the primary motivator for deforestation; hence, clearing deliberately targeted higher and drier sites. Remaining forests are highly fragmented and hydrologically altered, with larger forest fragments subject to greater inundation, which has negatively affected many forest bird populations. We developed a spatially explicit decision support model, based on a Partners in Flight plan for forest bird conservation, that prioritizes forest restoration to reduce forest fragmentation and increase the area of forest core (interior forest >1 km from 'hostile' edge). Our primary objective was to increase the number of forest patches that harbor >2000 ha of forest core, but we also sought to increase the number and area of forest cores >5000 ha. Concurrently, we targeted restoration within local (320 km2) landscapes to achieve >60% forest cover. Finally, we emphasized restoration of higher-elevation bottomland hardwood forests in areas where restoration would not increase forest fragmentation. Reforestation of 10% of restorable land in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (approximately 880,000 ha) targeted at priorities established by this decision support model resulted in approximately 824,000 ha of new forest core. This is more than 32 times the amount of core forest added through reforestation of randomly located fields (approximately 25,000 ha). The total area of forest core (1.6 million ha) that resulted from targeted restoration exceeded habitat objectives identified in the Partners in Flight Bird Conservation Plan and approached the area of forest core present in the 1950s.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2006

Connectivity in an agricultural landscape as reflected by interpond movements of a freshwater turtle

Connectivity is a measure of how landscape features facilitate movement and thus is an important factor in species persistence in a fragmented landscape. The scarcity of empirical studies that directly quantify species movement and determine subsequent effects on population density have, however, limited the utility of connectivity measures in conservation planning. We undertook a 4-year study to calculate connectivity based on observed movement rates and movement probabilities for five age-sex classes of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) inhabiting a pond complex in an agricultural landscape in northern Virginia (U.S.A.). We determined which variables influenced connectivity and the relationship between connectivity and subpopulation density. Interpatch distance and quality of habitat patches influenced connectivity but characteristics of the intervening matrix did not. Adult female turtles were more influenced by the habitat quality of recipient ponds than other age-sex classes. The importance of connectivity on spatial population dynamics was most apparent during a drought. Population density and connectivity were low for one pond in a wet year but dramatically increased as other ponds dried. Connectivity is an important component of species persistence in a heterogeneous landscape and is strongly dependent on the movement behavior of the species. Connectivity may reflect active selection or avoidance of particular habitat patches. The influence of habitat quality on connectivity has often been ignored, but our findings highlight its importance. Conservation planners seeking to incorporate connectivity measures into reserve design should not ignore behavior in favor of purely structural estimates of connectivity.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2010

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071&ndash;2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Conservation Biology↗