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At least 631 records · Page 35Linked to original sources

USGS2024

From eDNA to decisions using a multi-method approach to restoration planning in streams

Reintroduction efforts are increasingly used to mitigate biodiversity losses, but are frequently challenged by inadequate planning and uncertainty. High quality information about population status and threats can be used to prioritize reintroduction and restoration efforts and can transform ad hoc approaches into opportunities for improving conservation outcomes at a landscape scale. We conducted comprehensive environmental DNA (eDNA) and visual encounter surveys to determine the distribution of native and non-native aquatic species in two high-priority watersheds to address key uncertainties—such as the distribution of threats and the status of existing populations—inherent in restoration planning. We then used these occurrence data to develop a menu of potential conservation actions and a decision framework to benefit an endangered vertebrate (foothill yellow-legged frog, Rana boylii ) in dynamic stream systems. Our framework combines the strengths of multiple methods, allowing managers and conservation scientists to incorporate conservation science and site-specific knowledge into the planning process to increase the likelihood of achieving conservation goals.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2013

Rediscovering traditional vegetation management in preserves: trading experiences between cultures and continents

Land managers are grappling with massive changes in vegetation structure, particularly in protected areas formerly subjected to fire and grazing. The objective of this review was to compare notes on the historical and current management of ecosystems around the world (especially in wet to dry grasslands in the Americas, Australia, Africa, Europe and Asia) with respect to the usage of fire, grazing and cutting to reduce dominance and support the biodiversity of rare species. This review suggests that former disturbances, which are now often lost, may have once kept tall vegetation from pushing out rarer subdominant species. In cases where prehistoric biodiversity depended on fire or large ungulate grazing, traditional agricultural and indigenous practices may have carried biodiversity forward to historical times by mimicking pre-cultural disturbances (e.g., lightning fire and bison grazing). Ironically, biodiversity related to species richness, landscape heterogeneity and function may decline in preserves, especially if traditional management once maintained this biodiversity. Managers can benefit from a cross-continental comparison of the full arsenal of management techniques used to control encroaching vegetation.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2021

Quantifying the representation of plant communities in the protected areas of the U.S.: An analysis based on the U.S. National Vegetation Classification Groups

Plant communities represent the integration of ecological and biological processes and they serve as an important component for the protection of biological diversity. To measure progress towards protection of ecosystems in the United States for various stated conservation targets we need datasets at the appropriate thematic, spatial, and temporal resolution. The recent release of the LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation Data Products (2016 Remap) with a legend based on U.S. National Vegetation Classification allowed us to assess the conservation status of plant communities of the U.S. The map legend is based on the Group level of the USNVC, which characterizes the regional differences in plant communities based on dominant and diagnostic plant species. By combining the Group level map with the Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US Ver 2.1), we quantified the representation of each Group. If the mapped vegetation is assumed to be 100% accurate, using the Aichi Biodiversity target (17% land in protection by 2020) we found that 159 of the 265 natural Groups have less than 17% in GAP Status 1 & 2 lands and 216 of the 265 Groups fail to meet a 30% representation target. Only four of the twenty ecoregions have >17% of their extent in Status 1 & 2 lands. Sixteen ecoregions are dominated by Groups that are under-represented. Most ecoregions have many hectares of natural or ruderal vegetation that could contribute to future conservation efforts and this analysis helps identify specific targets and opportunities for conservation across the U.S.

Forests↗

USGS2026

Influence of new residential construction varying in housing density on bird species, human tolerance guilds, and communities

Human population growth and changing settlement patterns fuel the development of urban fringe lands worldwide, with implications for biodiversity. We conducted a 12-year study of birds in the fast-developing urban fringe lands of the central Puget Sound region, Washington, USA, to examine the effect of development configuration on birds. We hypothesized that lower-intensity conservation developments, compared to higher-intensity planned community developments, would benefit the overall bird community, as well as native forest birds (avoiders of human development) and avian generalist species (adapters to human development), but that higher-intensity planned community developments would benefit synanthropic species (exploiters of human development). We fit single-species and multi-species occupancy models to test these hypotheses. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that a greater proportion of the overall community, avoiders, and adapters occupied lower-intensity conservation developments compared to higher-intensity planned community developments. However, we did not detect an effect of development type on the exploiter guild, and we found that species in the exploiter guild are variable in their response to the configuration of suburban developments. We also hypothesized that human tolerance guilds would be a useful predictor of individual species responses to development type. This hypothesis was somewhat supported: we found that, for avoiders, 87% of species in the guild had the same response to development type as the overall guild; for adapters, 63% had the same response as the overall guild, and for exploiters, only 44% had the same response as the overall guild. Our results indicate that the configuration of suburban developments can have a meaningful impact on bird communities, particularly on those species that are most sensitive to any level of development.

Washington↗

USGS2024

Quantifying intraspecific variation in host resistance ad tolerance to a lethal pathogen

Testing for intraspecific variation for host tolerance or resistance in wild populations is important for informing conservation decisions about captive breeding, translocation, and disease treatment. Here, we test the importance of tolerance and resistance in multiple populations of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) against Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the amphibian fungal pathogen responsible for the greatest host biodiversity loss due to disease. Boreal toads have severely declined in Colorado (CO) due to Bd, but toad populations challenged with Bd in western Wyoming (WY) appear to be less affected. We used a common garden infection experiment to expose post-metamorphic toads sourced from four populations (2 in CO and 2 in WY) to Bd and monitored changes in mass, pathogen burden and survival for 8 weeks. We used a multi-state modelling approach to estimate weekly survival and transition probabilities between infected and cleared states, reflecting a dynamic infection process that traditional approaches fail to capture. We found that WY boreal toads are more tolerant to Bd infection with higher survival probabilities than those in CO when infected with identical pathogen burdens. WY toads also appeared more resistant to Bd with a higher probability of infection clearance and an average of 5 days longer to reach peak infection burdens. Our results demonstrate strong intraspecific differences in tolerance and resistance that likely contribute to why population declines vary regionally across this species. Our multi-state framework allowed us to gain inference on typically hidden disease processes when testing for host tolerance or resistance. Our findings demonstrate that describing an entire host species as ‘tolerant’ or ‘resistant’ (or lack thereof) is unwise without testing for intraspecific variation.

Colorado, Wyoming↗

USGS2009

Processes of wetland loss in India

Wetlands in India supply crucial human and animal needs such as drinking water, protein production, fodder, water purification, wildlife habitat, and flood storage. Increased appreciation of uses and threats is essential to protect wetlands where justified. Three quarters of India's population is rural, it places great demands on India's wetlands and losses continue to occur. This paper is based on extensive discussions with natural resource managers, government employees, farmers, academicians, and resource users at dozens of sites in India, as well as an extensive literature search. Twelve important kinds of wetland loss are identified and mechanisms believed to be causing them discussed: (1) agricultural conversion, (2) direct deforestation, (3) hydrologie alteration, (4) inundation, (5) defoliation, (6) altered upper watersheds, (7) accumulative water demands, (8) water quality degradation, (9) wetland consolidation, (10) global climate change, (11) ground-water depletion, (12) exotic species and biodiversity. Wetland understanding, management, and Public awareness in India must continue growing if wetland resources are to remain functional.

Environmental Conservation↗

USGS2021

Intensity of grass invasion negatively correlated with population density and age structure of an endangered dune plant across its range

Invasive species are a global threat to ecosystem biodiversity and function; non-native grass invasion has been particularly problematic in sparsely vegetated ecosystems such as open dunes. Native plant population responses to invasion, however, are infrequently translated to landscape scales, limiting the effectiveness of these data for addressing conservation issues. We quantified population density, total population size, and age class distribution of the federally-endangered plant species Antioch Dunes evening primrose ( Oenothera deltoides subsp. howellii ), at sites along a non-native grass invasion gradient in California, USA. We then scaled relationships between invasion and plant density across the species’ range using spatial models and remote sensing data. Adult and juvenile O. deltoides subsp. howellii densities were more than 10 times higher in non-invaded areas (grids with 10% total plant cover) when compared to highly-invaded areas (grids with 80% total plant cover). The ratio of O. deltoides subsp. howellii juveniles to adults decreased to less than 1 at 54% total cover, highlighting sensitivity of the regeneration niche to invasion. Spatial models mapped hotspots of O. deltoides subsp. howellii abundance and population structure across the landscape at sub-meter scales. Scaling the impacts of increasing invasion on plant species of conservation concern holds promise when coupled with remote sensing approaches, especially in naturally low-cover ecosystems where readily available metrics (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) can be used to quantify invasion. These spatial models inform how future invasive species management may influence population size and spatial distribution of species of conservation concern.

California↗

USGS2001

Status of the world's remaining closed forests: An assessment using satellite data and policy options

Historically, it appears that some of the WRCF have survived because i) they lack sufficient quantity of commercially valuable species; ii) they are located in remote or inaccessible areas; or iii) they have been protected as national parks and sanctuaries. Forests will be protected when people who are deciding the fate of forests conclude than the conservation of forests is more beneficial, e.g. generates higher incomes or has cultural or social values, than their clearance. If this is not the case, forests will continue to be cleared and converted. In the future, the WRCF may be protected only by focused attention. The future policy options may include strategies for strong protection measures, the raising of public awareness about the value of forests, and concerted actions for reducing pressure on forest lands by providing alternatives to forest exploitation to meet the growing demands of forest products. Many areas with low population densities offer an opportunity for conservation if appropriate steps are taken now by the national governments and international community. This opportunity must be founded upon the increased public and government awareness that forests have vast importance to the welfare of humans and ecosystems' services such as biodiversity, watershed protection, and carbon balance. Also paramount to this opportunity is the increased scientific understanding of forest dynamics and technical capability to install global observation and assessment systems. High-resolution satellite data such as Landsat 7 and other technologically advanced satellite programs will provide unprecedented monitoring options for governing authorities. Technological innovation can contribute to the way forests are protected. The use of satellite imagery for regular monitoring and Internet for information dissemination provide effective tools for raising worldwide awareness about the significance of forests and intrinsic value of nature.

Ambio↗

USGS2012

The shallow-water fish assemblage of Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica: Structure and patterns in an isolated, predator-dominated ecosystem

Fishes at Isla del Coco National Park, Costa Rica, were surveyed as part of a larger scientific expedition to the area in September 2009. The average total biomass of nearshore fishes was 7.8 tonnes per ha, among the largest observed in the tropics, with apex predators such as sharks, jacks, and groupers accounting for nearly 40% of the total biomass. The abundance of reef and pelagic sharks, particularly large aggregations of threatened species such as the scalloped hammerhead shark (up to 42 hammerheads ha-1) and large schools of jacks and snappers show the capacity for high biomass in unfished ecosystems in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. However, the abundance of hammerhead and reef whitetip sharks appears to have been declining since the late 1990s, and likely causes may include increasing fishing pressure on sharks in the region and illegal fishing inside the Park. One Galapagos shark tagged on September 20, 2009 in the Isla del Coco National Park moved 255km southeast towards Malpelo Island in Colombia, when it stopped transmitting. These results contribute to the evidence that sharks conduct large-scale movements between marine protected areas (Isla del Coco, Malpelo, Galápagos) in the Eastern tropical Pacific and emphasize the need for regional-scale management. More than half of the species and 90% of the individuals observed were endemic to the tropical eastern Pacific. These high biomass and endemicity values highlight the uniqueness of the fish assemblage at Isla del Coco and its importance as a global biodiversity hotspot.

Cocos Island, Isla Del Coco↗

USGS2022

Freshwater unionid mussels threatened by predation of Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus)

Indigenous freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are integral to riverine ecosystems, playing a pivotal role in aquatic food webs and providing ecological services. With populations on the decline worldwide, freshwater mussels are of conservation concern. In this study, we explore the propensity of the invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) fish to prey upon indigenous freshwater mussels. First, we conducted lab experiments where Round Gobies were given the opportunity to feed on juvenile unionid mussels and macroinvertebrates, revealing rates and preferences of consumption. Several Round Gobies consumed whole freshwater mussels during these experiments, as confirmed by mussel counts and x-ray images of the fishes. Next, we investigated Round Gobies collected from stream habitats of the French Creek watershed, which is renowned for its unique and rich aquatic biodiversity. We developed a novel DNA metabarcoding method to identify the specific species of mussels consumed by Round Goby and provide a new database of DNA gene sequences for 25 indigenous unionid mussel species. Several of the fishes sampled had consumed indigenous mussels, including the Elktoe (non-endangered), Creeper (non-endangered), Long Solid (state endangered), and Rayed Bean (federally endangered) species. The invasive Round Goby poses a growing threat to unionid mussels, including species of conservation concern. The introduction of the invasive Round Goby to freshwaters of North America is shaping ecosystem transitions within the aquatic critical zone having widespread implications for conservation and management.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗

USGS2024

Deep-ocean macrofaunal assemblages on ferromanganese and phosphorite-rich substrates in the Southern California Borderland

Mineral-rich hardgrounds, such as ferromanganese (FeMn) crusts and phosphorites, occur on seamounts and continental margins, gaining attention for their resource potential due to their enrichment in valuable metals in some regions. This study focuses on the Southern California Borderland (SCB), an area characterized by uneven and heterogeneous topography featuring FeMn crusts, phosphorites, basalt, and sedimentary rocks that occur at varying depths and are exposed to a range of oxygen concentrations. Due to its heterogeneity, this region serves as an optimal setting for investigating the relationship between mineral-rich hardgrounds and benthic fauna. This study characterizes the density, diversity, and community composition of macrofauna (>300 μm) on hardgrounds as a function of substrate type and environment (depth and oxygen ranges). Rocks and their macrofauna were sampled quantitatively using remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) during expeditions in 2020 and 2021 at depths above, within, and below the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). A total of 3,555 macrofauna individuals were counted and 416 different morphospecies (excluding encrusting bryozoans and hydrozoans) were identified from 82 rocks at depths between 231 and 2,688 m. Average density for SCB macrofauna was 11.08 ± 0.87 ind. 200 cm −2 and mean Shannon-Wiener diversity per rock (H′ [loge] ) was 2.22 ± 0.07. A relationship was found between substrate type and macrofaunal communities. Phosphorite rocks had the highest H′ of the four substrates compared on a per-rock basis. However, when samples were pooled by substrate, FeMn crusts had the highest H′ and rarefaction diversity. Of all the environmental variables examined, water depth explained the largest variance in macrofaunal community composition. Macrofaunal density and diversity values were similar at sites within and outside the OMZ. This study is the first to analyze the macrofaunal communities of mineral-rich hardgrounds in the SCB, which support deep-ocean biodiversity by acting as specialized substrates for macrofaunal communities. Understanding the intricate relationships between macrofaunal assemblages and mineral-rich substrates may inform effects from environmental disruptions associated with deep-seabed mining or climate change. The findings contribute baseline information useful for effective conservation and management of the SCB and will support scientists in monitoring changes in these communities due to environmental disturbance or human impact in the future.

California↗

USGS2014

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways 1 , including invasive hybridization 2 (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions 3 . Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ) and non-native rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish 4 . Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system 5 , a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers—precipitation and temperature—and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

Alberta, Idaho, Montana↗

USGS2018

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel ( Parvaspina steinstansana ) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

North Carolina↗

USGS2025

Wet meadow regeneration through restoration of biophysical feedbacks

Wet meadows are globally significant ecosystems that provide critical hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical functions, yet their extent has declined dramatically due to land use changes and hydrologic alteration. These sedge-dominated wetlands exist at the drier end of the wetland gradient, maintained by shallow groundwater and periodic inundation. This paper is a global synthesis of the ecological, geomorphic, and hydrological dynamics of wet meadows, with an emphasis on alluvial systems, to inform effective restoration strategies. We compare wet meadows to other wetlands, classify them into palustrine, lacustrine, and alluvial types, then focus on alluvial wet meadows and discuss how their formation and persistence depend on ground and surface water interactions, sediment deposition and flow obstructions, all mediated by biological processes. In particular, we highlight the role of hydric graminoids in resisting erosion and maintaining soil cohesion, how beaver promote meadow persistence, and the significance of wet meadows as carbon sinks. We also present stratigraphic evidence demonstrating that incision, often triggered by anthropogenic activity or changing climate, is the primary mechanism of alluvial wet meadow degradation, resulting in water table decline and shifts in vegetation composition. Restoration requires reversing these incisional processes through techniques that elevate water tables, disperse flow and retain sediment—methods traditionally associated with either soil conservation or stream restoration. These include nature-based solutions that create obstructions such as beaver dams and their analogues, rock and wood-based obstructions and incision trench or gully filling and grading. Given their multifunctional value—including but not limited to flood attenuation, biodiversity support, and carbon sequestration—wet meadows warrant a focused restoration framework. This review advocates for a valley-floor scale restoration paradigm that integrates hydrological reconnection, sediment retention, and biological reinforcement to ensure long-term resilience of these systems in the face of changing climate and land use pressures.

Frontiers in Environmental Science↗

USGS2020

Modeling the supporting ecosystem services of depressional wetlands

We explored how a geographic information system modeling approach could be used to quantify supporting ecosystem services related to the type, abundance, and distribution of landscape components. Specifically, we use the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model to quantify habitats that support amphibians and birds, floral resources that support pollinators, native-plant communities that support regional biodiversity, and above- and below-ground carbon stores in the Des Moines Lobe ecoregion of the U.S. We quantified services under two scenarios, one that represented the 2012 Des Moines Lobe landscape, and one that simulated the conversion to crop production of wetlands and surrounding uplands conserved under the USDA Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). While ACEP easements only covered 0.35% of the ecoregion, preserved wetlands and grasslands provided for 19,020 ha of amphibian habitat, 21,462 ha of grassland-bird habitat, 18,798 ha of high-quality native wetland plants, and 27,882 ha of floral resources for pollinators. Additionally, ACEP protected lands stored 257,722 tonnes of carbon that, if released, would result in costs in excess of 45-million USD. An integrated approach using results from a GIS-based model in combination with process-based model quantifications will facilitate more informed decisions related to ecosystem service tradeoffs.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

USGS1999

Exotic plant species invade hot spots of native plant diversity

Some theories and experimental studies suggest that areas of low plant species richness may be invaded more easily than areas of high plant species richness. We gathered nested-scale vegetation data on plant species richness, foliar cover, and frequency from 200 1-m 2 subplots (20 1000-m 2 modified-Whittaker plots) in the Colorado Rockies (USA), and 160 1-m 2 subplots (16 1000-m 2 plots) in the Central Grasslands in Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Minnesota (USA) to test the generality of this paradigm. At the 1-m 2 scale, the paradigm was supported in four prairie types in the Central Grasslands, where exotic species richness declined with increasing plant species richness and cover. At the 1-m 2 scale, five forest and meadow vegetation types in the Colorado Rockies contradicted the paradigm; exotic species richness increased with native-plant species richness and foliar cover. At the 1000-m 2 plot scale (among vegetation types), 83% of the variance in exotic species richness in the Central Grasslands was explained by the total percentage of nitrogen in the soil and the cover of native plant species. In the Colorado Rockies, 69% of the variance in exotic species richness in 1000-m 2 plots was explained by the number of native plant species and the total percentage of soil carbon. At landscape and biome scales, exotic species primarily invaded areas of high species richness in the four Central Grasslands sites and in the five Colorado Rockies vegetation types. For the nine vegetation types in both biomes, exotic species cover was positively correlated with mean foliar cover, mean soil percentage N, and the total number of exotic species. These patterns of invasibility depend on spatial scale, biome and vegetation type, spatial autocorrelation effects, availability of resources, and species-specific responses to grazing and other disturbances. We conclude that: (1) sites high in herbaceous foliar cover and soil fertility, and hot spots of plant diversity (and biodiversity), are invasible in many landscapes; and (2) this pattern may be more closely related to the degree resources are available in native plant communities, independent of species richness. Exotic plant invasions in rare habitats and distinctive plant communities pose a significant challenge to land managers and conservation biologists.

Ecological Monographs↗

USGS2012

Ecosystem services valuation to support decisionmaking on public lands—A case study of the San Pedro River watershed, Arizona

This report details the findings of the Bureau of Land Management–U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Services Valuation Pilot Study. This project evaluated alternative methods and tools that quantify and value ecosystem services, and it assessed the tools’ readiness for use in the Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking process. We tested these tools on the San Pedro River watershed in northern Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. The study area includes the San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area (managed by the Bureau of Land Management), which has been a focal point for conservation activities and scientific research in recent decades. We applied past site-specific primary valuation studies, value transfer, the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) models to value locally important ecosystem services for the San Pedro River watershed—water, carbon, biodiversity, and cultural values. We tested these approaches on a series of scenarios to evaluate ecosystem service changes and the ability of the tools to accommodate scenarios. A suite of additional tools were either at too early a stage of development to run, were proprietary, or were place-specific tools inappropriate for application to the San Pedro River watershed. We described the strengths and weaknesses of these additional ecosystem service tools against a series of evaluative criteria related to their usefulness for Bureau of Land Management decisionmaking. Using these tools, we quantified gains or losses of ecosystem services under three categories of scenarios: urban growth, mesquite management, and water augmentation. These results quantify tradeoffs and could be useful for decisionmaking within Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Results are accompanied by a relatively high level of uncertainty associated with model outputs, valuation methods, and discount rates applied. Further guidance on representing uncertainty and applying uncertain results in decisionmaking would benefit both tool developers and those offices in using ecosystem services to compare management tradeoffs. Decisionmakers and Bureau of Land Management managers at the State-, district-, and field-office level would also benefit from continuing model improvements, training, and guidance on tool use that can be provided by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Department of the Interior. Tradeoffs were identified in the level of effort needed to parameterize and run tools and the amount and quality of information they provide to the decision process. We found the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit, Ecosystem Services Review, and United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre Ecosystem Services Toolkit to be immediately feasible for application by the Bureau of Land Management, given proper guidance on their use. It is also feasible for the Bureau of Land Management to use the InVEST model, but in early 2012 the process of parameterizing the model required resources and expertise that are unlikely to be available in most Bureau of Land Management district or field offices. Application of past primary valuation is feasible, but developing new primary-valuation studies is too time consuming for regular application. Value transfer approaches (aside from the Wildlife Habitat Benefits Estimation Toolkit) are best applied carefully on the basis of guidelines described in this report, to reduce transfer error. The ARIES model can provide useful information in regions modeled in the past (Arizona, California, Colorado, and Washington), but it lacks some features that will improve its usability, such as a generalized model that could be applied anywhere in the United States. Eleven other tools described in this report could become useful as the tools more fully develop, in high-profile cases for which additional resources are available for tool application or in case-study regions where place-specific models have already been developed. To improve the value of these tools in decisionmaking, we suggest scientific needs that agencies such as U.S. Geological Survey can help meet—for instance, development and support of data archives. Such archives could greatly reduce resource needs and improve the reliability and consistency of results. Given the rapid state of evolution in the field, periodic follow-up studies on ecosystem services tools would help to ensure that the Bureau of Land Management and other public land management agencies are kept up to date on new tools and features that bring ecosystem services closer to readiness for use in regular decisionmaking.

Arizona;Sonora↗

USGS2016

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968–2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33–0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗