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USGS2024

Estimation of reservoir storage capacity and geomorphic change detection analysis from a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake, Rockdale County, Georgia

Rockdale County Department of Water Resources has a directive to update estimates of the reservoir storage capacity of Randy Poynter Lake, located in northern Georgia, and to assess recent sedimentation and associated storage capacity loss. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake to update storage capacity estimates and to quantify storage capacity change since the first multibeam bathymetric survey in 2012 in consideration of estimated errors inherent to bathymetric surveys. Data from the 2022 survey were used to generate contours of the reservoir as well as compute storage capacity at regular increments of water-surface elevation. Storage capacity comparisons between 2012 and 2022 at Randy Poynter Lake show minimal changes that are within the estimated uncertainties, with consistent or slightly increased storage capacities observed at most water-surface elevations and reductions observed at the remaining few elevations. Comparison of the multibeam bathymetric data collected in 2012 with data collected in 2022 further allowed for a formal geomorphic change detection analysis to map, quantify, and infer causation of morphological change over time with respect to a level of detectable change. The volume change in Randy Poynter Lake for the decade between 2012 and 2022 was slightly net-depositional and within the estimated uncertainty. The spatial distribution of sediment deposition was primarily concentrated in the northern portion of the lake, where the principal tributary flows into Randy Poynter Lake. The results of the geomorphic change analysis were used to further understand the future implications to storage capacity change. Despite the challenges of confirming systematic biases because of uncertainties exceeding the observed changes, insights from the study help predict long-term reservoir sediment accumulation, indicating a reservoir half-life extending about 650 years from 2022 on the basis of the current sediment yield estimates.

Georgia↗

USGS2026

Climate-adaptive urban planning: Quantitative assessment of drought impacts and practical strategies for climate-resilient urban green spaces

Urban green spaces (UGSs) are vital for enhancing a city’s resilience and livability; however, their functionality is increasingly jeopardized by drought, particularly in water-scarce regions. This study evaluates drought impact on UGSs in Metropolitan Adelaide, Australia, a representative semi-arid urban system, using satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data spanning 2000–2020. Vegetation dynamics were analyzed through Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), standardized anomaly assessment, lagged Pearson correlation, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis. To isolate climatically sensitive signals, 29 urban lawn patches were examined separately from mixed urban canopy, given their shallow root systems and direct dependence on surface moisture. NDVI declined by approximately 0.09 units during the Millennium Drought (2001–2009), with summer greenness deficits reaching 24% below the 20-year benchmark. Temperature was the dominant driver of lawn NDVI variability (r = −0.863, R 2 = 74.5%), substantially exceeding the effect of rainfall (r = 0.156, R 2 = 2.4%). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles modulated vegetation responses, with La Niña years supporting recovery and El Niño years amplifying decline. Post-drought recovery remained incomplete, with NDVI deficits of 8–20% persisting through 2020; full recovery was observed only in 2017, coinciding with the highest recorded summer rainfall. No significant directional trend was detected over the full study period (Mann–Kendall τ = 0.005, p = 0.908). These findings demonstrate that heat, rather than water limitation alone, is the primary driver of vegetation stress in urban systems, highlighting the benefits of integrated management strategies that address both warming and moisture deficits to sustain urban green infrastructure under future climate conditions. We introduce the concept of “urban greenery drought,” referring to a form of vegetation stress in managed urban landscapes where greenness is reduced primarily by elevated temperature and atmospheric demand despite water availability.

Adelaide↗

USGS2025

Prospectivity modeling of the NASA VIPER landing site at Mons Mouton near the Lunar South Pole

We use a high-resolution digital elevation model and a numerical thermal model to produce a variety of inputs for a water-ice prospectivity model for the Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) landing site. These input data are maps of topography, surface slope, surface aspect, surface curvature, maximum temperature, depth to ice stability, permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), distance to PSRs, and PSR density. This model predicts where water ice is most likely within the top meter of regolith, assuming plausible relationships between ice concentration and the various inputs. The model is designed to be adjusted in near-real time as data are collected during the VIPER mission. As such, it is a tool for both analyzing data from the mission as well as planning operations. Since the current model, at this point, relies only on orbital remote sensing, the final version will also be a tool to extrapolate the VIPER mission results across the lunar poles.

Planetary Science Journal↗

USGS2021

Remote sensing-based actual evapotranspiration assessment in a data-scarce area of Brazil: A case study of the Urucuia Aquifer System

The large groundwater reserves of the Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) enabled agricultural development and economic growth in the western Bahia State, in northeastern Brazil. Over the last several years, concern has grown around the aquifer’s diminishing water levels, and water balance (WB) studies are in demand. Considering the lack of measured actual evapotranspiration (ET a ), a major component of the water cycle, this work uses the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model to estimate ET a , and compares it to basin-scale estimates from the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) monthly model and from an annual WB closure method, based on gridded meteorological data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product. Additionally, a comparative assessment of different versions of the SSEBop parameterization was performed. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery was used to implement eight different versions of the SSEBop algorithm over the UAS between 2000 and 2013. SSEBop and SMAP ET a yielded similar seasonal patterns, with correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.65, mean difference (MD) of 0.8 mm/month and mean absolute difference (MAD) of 18.5 mm/month. Comparison of SSEBop annual ET a estimates to annual SMAP and WB closure estimates yielded low MD (12.1 and −7.3 mm/year, respectively) and MAD (82.5 and 82.8 mm/year, respectively), but also low r values (0.00 and 0.37, respectively). The comparison of the different SSEBop versions indicated the need to incorporate a calibration step of the aerodynamic heat resistance (r ah ) parameter. SSEBop results were also used for land cover and drought monitoring. Analysis indicates that agriculture, associated with an increasing trend of atmospheric evaporative demand, is responsible for the decrease in groundwater levels and streamflow in the studied time period.

Urucuia Aquifer System↗

USGS2025

Uppermost Oligocene and Miocene diatom biostratigraphy of Ocean Drilling Program Sites 682 and 688 from the Peru Margin

The diatom biochronology of ODP (Ocean Drilling Program) Holes 682A and 688E provides a detailed framework for refiningMiocene diatom zonation in the East Pisco Basin of southern Peru, establishing both a nearly complete offshore reference section and a correlation tool for the fragmentary onshore vertebrate-bearing deposits. This new biostratigraphic record documents a complete succession of low latitude and/or northeastern Pacific Miocene diatom zones, with two notable exceptions: a dissolution and/or hiatus interval (*16.5–14 Ma) during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum and a likely earliest Miocene hiatus (*23.4–21.8 Ma). Although eastern equatorial Pacific diatom zones characterize the Upper Oligocene and Lower Miocene strata, an increased abundance of cool-water diatoms that lived during the Middle and Late Miocene allows better application of northeast Pacific diatom zones, except during the Messinian (7–6 Ma) when warm-water diatoms predominate. The effects of eustatic sea level and tectonics on depositional sequences in the EPB and in offshore cores off central Peru are discussed.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2024

Conceptualization and simulation of groundwater flow and groundwater availability in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers in northeastern Oklahoma, 1980–2017

Oklahoma Groundwater Law (Oklahoma Statute § 82-1020.5) requires that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board conduct hydrologic investigations to determine the maximum annual yield for the State’s groundwater basins. The Boone and Roubidoux aquifers (also known as the Springfield Plateau aquifer and Ozark aquifer, respectively) are bedrock aquifers that extend from northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. At present (2024), the Oklahoma Water Resources Board has yet to legally issue orders for the final determination of maximum annual yields for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. To support determination of a maximum annual yield, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, developed a hydrogeologic framework, a conceptual groundwater-flow model, and a calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model for the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers. Three types of groundwater-availability scenarios were simulated by using the calibrated numerical model. These scenarios were used to (1) estimate equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates (groundwater withdrawal applied equally over the aquifer), (2) quantify the potential effects of projected groundwater withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought. For the Boone aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.10, 0.98, and 0.96 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year scenarios, respectively. For the Roubidoux aquifer, equal-proportionate-share groundwater withdrawal rates were 1.76, 1.34, and 1.25 acre-feet per acre per year for the 20-, 40-, and 50-year simulations, respectively. For the 50-year scenarios, stream seepage was minimally affected. Over the 10-year drought scenario, groundwater storage in the Boone and Roubidoux aquifers decreased by 660,451 acre-feet (6.7 percent) and 508,472 acre-feet (1.0 percent), respectively.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2026

Hydrogeologic framework and conceptual groundwater-flow model of the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, 1998–2022

This study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, to update the hydrogeologic framework and conceptual flow model for the panhandle and northwest parts of the High Plains (Ogallala) aquifer in Oklahoma, which together compose the Ogallala aquifer focus area. The study included the construction of a potentiometric surface, and available geologic and hydrologic data were used to evaluate saturated thickness of the aquifer. The water budget for the updated conceptual groundwater-flow model was based on estimated inflows and outflows for the 1998–2022 study period. Saturated thickness of the Ogallala aquifer averaged 127 and 116 feet for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer for 1998–2022 averaged 422,054 and 39,645 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively. Recharge, the primary inflow, was estimated at 0.63 inch per year for the 1998–2022 study period, with the panhandle part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 175,068 acre-ft/yr and the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer receiving 49,376 acre-ft/yr. Additional inflows included irrigation return flows, estimated at 8,111 and 642 acre-ft/yr for the panhandle and northwest parts, respectively, of the Ogallala aquifer. Net lateral groundwater flows, considered to be aquifer outflows, were estimated to account for 31,908 acre-ft/yr for the Ogallala aquifer focus area. Streambed seepage, which was an outflow of 5,535 acre-ft/yr, was only present in the northwest part of the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical leakage and saturated-zone evapotranspiration were considered negligible outflows. These findings provide a revised conceptual groundwater-flow model water budget for the Ogallala aquifer focus area in Oklahoma.

Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2024

Evidence of nitrate attenuation in intertidal and subtidal groundwater in a subterranean estuary at a Cape Cod embayment, East Falmouth, Massachusetts, 2015–16

Nitrogen dynamics in intertidal and nearshore subtidal groundwater (subterranean estuary) adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula, Falmouth, Massachusetts, were investigated during 2015–16 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The peninsula is a densely populated residential area with septic systems and cesspools that are substantial sources of nitrogen to groundwater. The study area is in the Eel River, an estuarine saltwater embayment connected to the ocean adjacent to the western shore of the peninsula, that was the subject of an earlier study by Colman and others (2018, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20185095 ) on nitrogen transport and transformations in groundwater between onshore and offshore locations. The previous study documented the distribution of nitrate concentrations and nitrate attenuation reactions in fresh groundwater beneath the peninsula and the estuary. The current study extended those observations with more detailed sampling and analysis of shallow groundwater from wells near discharge sites beneath the estuary. The current field investigation included sampling of existing wells and installation and sampling of clusters of wells and temporary sampling points in the subterranean estuary, including (1) shallow transects 0.3 to 1.2 meters (m) deep extending from 1 to 13.5 m offshore and (2) deeper wells (from 1.83 to 4.88 m deep) extending from 4.3 to 14.3 m offshore. Measurements of hydraulic-head gradients 2–5 m below the sediment/water interface in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal zones indicated that groundwater flow generally was upwards (towards the estuary) under all tide conditions in October 2016. The magnitude of the gradient was greatest during low tide conditions, indicating that groundwater discharge likely decreased during high tides. Measurements of specific conductance in shallow groundwater in the subterranean estuary in three transects perpendicular to shore were consistent with the existence of saltwater flow cells (infiltration of overlying saline water, mixing with fresh groundwater, and discharge to the overlying saline water) in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal regions. The size of these flow cells was variable in space and time and dependent on the elevation of the tide (spring or neap). At this location in the Eel River subterranean estuary, and offshore to at least 13.5 m, offshore flow of fresh groundwater apparently prevented a deeper saltwater wedge from discharging to the surface. Nitrate concentrations in shallow groundwater (30 to 122 centimeters [cm] depth) were variable in space and time, ranging from not detectable to 600 micromoles per liter (μmol/L) (8.4 milligrams per liter as N), and were highest in June 2016 at depths from 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 4 to 9 m offshore. Nitrate generally was not detectable in saline shallow groundwater at 30-cm depth or at any depth from 30 to 122 cm from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were suboxic (less than 16 μmol/L) in 60 percent of the sampled subterranean groundwater beneath the intertidal and subtidal zones. In the remaining sites, the range of dissolved oxygen concentrations was from 18 to 272 μmol/L and the median concentration was 43 μmol/L. Evidence for microbial nitrate reduction (denitrification and possibly anammox) was provided by the distribution of the reaction product nitrogen gas (excess N 2 , or N 2MIC ), as determined from analysis of the dissolved nitrogen gas and argon gas (Ar) concentrations in groundwater samples. Excess nitrogen gas provided evidence for nitrate reduction in shallow groundwater below the subtidal and, to a lesser extent, intertidal zones adjacent to the Seacoast Shores peninsula. These zones, where evidence for nitrate reduction was detected, were in fresh and brackish groundwater near subtidal or intertidal saltwater cells where discharging fresh groundwater mixed with infiltrating saline water. Infiltrating seawater may have supplied organic carbon, one of several potential electron donors that are required for denitrification. Other potential electron donors, such as organic carbon, iron, manganese, hydrogen, methane, ammonium, elemental sulfur, or sulfide phases, may have been supplied by the estuarine sediments. Drainage from surface runoff near the shore also may have supplied organic carbon to fresh groundwater near the intertidal saltwater cell. The highest amounts of nitrate converted to excess nitrogen gas were estimated to be in the range of 230 to 430 μmol/L in nearly fresh groundwater near the subtidal saltwater cell at depths of 61 to 122 cm below the sediment/water interface and from 10 to 13.5 m offshore. Evidence of denitrification within 10 m of the shore was sparse (generally limited to less than 50 μmol/L of N 2 -N) despite the presence of high nitrate concentrations. The spatial distribution of estimated nitrate reduction in the intertidal and nearshore subtidal fresh and brackish groundwater may be related to local variability in the distribution of reactive electron donors in those zones. Variations in the amount of nitrate reduction to nitrogen gas were not clearly related to potential aqueous electron donors such as dissolved organic carbon, nor to potential reaction products such as alkalinity, but may have been controlled by combinations of aqueous and solid-phase reactants. The distribution of relatively shallow fresh groundwater containing nitrate could indicate potential nitrate discharge areas in the lower intertidal zone and uncertain locations farther offshore; however, the data did not extend all the way to the sediment/water interface or to the offshore freshwater limit. This study confirmed substantial loss of nitrate from some of the fresh and brackish groundwater in shallow subestuarine sediments prior to discharge but did not quantify how much nitrate eventually discharged to the estuary.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Multi-scale geophysical mapping of the brine and bedrock surfaces along the Dolores River, Paradox Valley, Colorado, December 2023

Total dissolved solids derived from salt dome–sourced brine in the underlying alluvial aquifer substantially increase with distance in the reach of the Dolores River that passes through Paradox Valley in southwestern Colorado. The area has been the site of salinity control operations since the 1990s to reduce salt loading to the downstream Colorado River. Previous airborne and ground/water-based electromagnetic (EM) geophysical data have successfully mapped the top of the brine surface, albeit with relatively coarse near-surface resolution and limited spatial coverage. This present December 2023 study used ground-based high-resolution EM and passive seismic (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, HVSR) tools to map in detail the depth and thickness of the brine zone in the alluvial aquifer (top of the brine down to bedrock contact) in areas immediately surrounding the Dolores River where previous airborne EM (AEM) results indicated brine within 10 m of land surface. Results indicate the deepest bedrock is generally associated with the shallowest brine and local depressions in the collapse breccia (caprock to the Paradox Formation salt) may facilitate vertical migration of brine into the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, the ground-based EM mapping corroborated general patterns in depth to brine that were observed in previous AEM results while also revealing additional detail, including suspected focused brine discharge zones to the Dolores River. A river-based survey wherein EM data, channel depth and river water–specific conductance information were collected augmented these findings and indicated specific areas on both the western and eastern sides of the river where focused brine discharge may occur. This study comprises a large-scale, ground- and water-based geophysical mapping effort, including hundreds of HVSR soundings and 100s of kilometres of EM data, which were successfully translated into digital brine and bedrock surfaces that could be incorporated into groundwater modelling efforts, future well siting or other decision-making.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Multiple machine-learning estimation of groundwater levels and trends for the regional Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer provides irrigation, public, and domestic water supplies across the south-central United States. Declining groundwater levels require improved characterization of changing conditions. Traditional potentiometric-surface mapping does not use all available water-level data or quantify uncertainty. To address these limitations, we developed a data-driven multiple machine-learning (MML) framework delivered through two open-source R packages. The covMRVAgen1 software assembles covariates to 155,960 monthly groundwater levels from 57,695 wells; the mmlMRVAgen1 software trains Cubist and Random Forest models, blends them, and makes 1-kilometer gridded predictions of monthly potentiometric surfaces for the period January 1980–December 2022. The MML approach provides a methodological foundation for region-scale spatiotemporal groundwater prediction and uncertainty quantification, generating 90-percent prediction limits with appropriate empirical coverage. Model performance is acceptable, with a root-mean-square error of about 4.2 feet, standard deviation of 24.82 feet, and a normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.973.

Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou↗

USGS2026

Groundwater-level elevations in the bedrock aquifers of the Denver Basin aquifer system, Elbert County, Colorado, 2015–23

Water users in Elbert County, Colorado, rely on groundwater from bedrock aquifers in the Denver Basin aquifer system (upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) for approximately half of their water uses. Withdrawals from the bedrocks aquifers have increased to meet the water use needs of expanding regional population growth and development. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Elbert County Board of County Commissioners, began a study in 2015 to monitor groundwater levels within Elbert County. The primary purpose of this report is to present a summary of groundwater levels measured during the study period (2015–23) and present results from statistical analyses of changes in groundwater-level elevations through time. Discrete groundwater levels were measured at 36 wells within Elbert County. Seven of those wells contained equipment to make and record continuous groundwater-level measurements at hourly intervals. All aquifers, except the lower Dawson aquifer, had only declining groundwater-level elevations in discrete measurements for wells with statistically significant trends. Of the eight statistically significant trends in the lower Dawson aquifer, two wells indicated increasing groundwater-level elevation from discrete measurements. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in the upper Dawson, lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers were −0.23, −0.66, −0.64, −0.39, and −0.63 feet per year, respectively, for discrete groundwater-level elevation measurements. Trends in continuous groundwater-level elevations were in agreement with statistically significant trends in discrete groundwater-level elevations for all wells. The groundwater-level elevation trend medians in this study, compared to the overall trends in a 2015−2018 study, both indicated declining groundwater-level elevations except in the upper Dawson aquifer, where the trend direction was opposite, a positive trend from 2015 to 2018 and a negative trend (declining groundwater elevations) from 2015 to 2023. The change in trends within the upper Dawson aquifer may be affected by differences in the study period and the trend analysis applied. Trends during the 2015–23 study period were compared to departures from the median 2015 groundwater-level elevation for each site in each aquifer. In general, the departures from the 2015 median supported trends observed at each site and correlated spatially with greater departures near the western border of Elbert County. Additionally, 30-year precipitation data showing wet and dry periods were overlaid with the departure from the 2015 median to assess groundwater-level patterns in wells in the five aquifers. Departures from the 2015 median groundwater-level elevations appeared greatest during the dry period between 2020 and 2023. Potentiometric-surface maps of the upper and lower Dawson aquifers created from static April 2023 groundwater elevations indicated groundwater-flow direction is generally from the south to the north. Results of this study could be used to guide additional groundwater monitoring in Elbert County and could aid in long-term planning of water resources.

Colorado↗

USGS2026

Bathymetric survey and storage capacity of Upper Lake Mary near Flagstaff, Arizona in 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the city of Flagstaff, collected bathymetric, light detection and ranging (lidar), and land-survey data of Upper Lake Mary in Arizona during the months of April and October 2024. The city of Flagstaff uses a combination of groundwater from well fields throughout the Flagstaff area and surface water, mainly from Upper Lake Mary, for its potable water supply. The purpose of the survey is to update previous surveys using new technology and compare the results to previous surveys to determine if there was a decrease in storage capacity that could affect the city’s water supply. The lakebed was mapped in April 2024 using a vessel equipped with a multibeam echosounder (MBES) and mobile lidar scanner with positioning captured using a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system (RTK GNSS) base and receivers. In October 2024, areas of the reservoir that were too shallow for the boat and shoreline that were not captured by the vessel-based lidar were surveyed on foot using hand-held RTK GNSS receivers. At full pool (spillway elevation of 6,831.82 feet above NAVD 88 [2,082.34 meters (m)], Upper Lake Mary has a storage capacity of 16,449.80 acre-feet (20,290,611.73 cubic meters) and a surface area of 953.57 acres (3,860,926.075 square meters). The reservoir is 5.7 miles (9.7 kilometers) long and varies in width from 326 feet (99.36 m) near the central, narrow portion of the reservoir to 2,613 feet (796.44 m) in the upper portion. Comparisons between this survey and the previous two surveys from the 1950s and 2006 indicate no apparent decrease in reservoir area or storage capacity. Results of the 2024 survey indicate that Upper Lake Mary’s storage capacity increased by 0.9 percent from the 2006 survey and a 1.6 percent increase in surface area from the 2006 survey.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Late Miocene Colorado River arrival in the Bidahochi basin supports spillover origin of Grand Canyon

The timing and mechanism of the integration of the Colorado River and incision of the Grand Canyon remain among geology’s enduring controversies. A key question is the configuration of the upper Colorado River watershed between 11 and 6 million years ago. In this study, we present new evidence from zircon uranium-lead geochronology for the arrival of distinctive Colorado–Green River sediment in the Bidahochi basin by 6.6 million years ago derived from the Browns Park Formation. This is coeval with an order-of-magnitude increase in depositional rate, an increase in carbonate strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) ratios, the appearance of large fish species characteristic of fast-flowing waters, and other sedimentological changes. This evidence is consistent with the Colorado River supplying water and sediment to the Bidahochi basin before spillover integration of the river through the Grand Canyon.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2025

Simulation of groundwater flow in Wake County, North Carolina, 2000 through 2070

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey and Wake County Environmental Services began a collaborative study to evaluate groundwater resources and long-term groundwater availability in the county’s fractured-rock groundwater system. Wake County, in central North Carolina, is experiencing rapid population growth, associated land development, and changing water use. Hydrogeologic data including groundwater levels, aquifer testing, borehole fracture flow measurements, water-quality samples, and groundwater age-dating tracers were collected, along with findings from previous investigations, to help inform a conceptual model of the flow system used to develop a modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW) for simulating historical and future groundwater conditions from 2000 to 2070. Hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity ranges were estimated from 17 slug tests and 21 borehole-flow measurements. Groundwater-quality analytical results from 19 sampling sites indicate that oxidation-reduction (redox) conditions varied within the regolith and bedrock and that minimal evaporation occurred before recharge entered the groundwater system. Age dating revealed mixtures of older and younger water, ranging from the 1940s to the 1990s—indicating variable flow pathways of recharge within permeable bedrock fracture zones. To simplify the complex fractured-rock groundwater system, two layers representing the regolith and the fractured bedrock were used in the MODFLOW model. Model calibration included parameter estimation and provided a reasonable fit to observed groundwater levels and estimated stream base flows. The model forecast scenarios incorporated future climate-model data for two emissions scenarios with land cover change projections to simulate potential impacts to future groundwater levels, recharge, and base flows. Recharge and base flow projections were largely within historical ranges, with no apparent long-term trends, but did indicate a slight downward shift in median values—likely, in part, because of differences in spatial resolution of input climate datasets. Seasonal patterns were consistent with historical data, with projections of possible increases in future winter recharge. Model limitations are discussed, and additional monitoring and model refinement needs are highlighted to support decision making for local groundwater management.

North Carolina↗

USGS2025

Groundwater-level elevations in the Denver Basin bedrock aquifers and Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer, El Paso County, Colorado, 2021–24

El Paso County is the second-most populous county in Colorado and is projected to grow another 15 percent by 2030. Within El Paso County is the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Designated Groundwater Basin (Black Squirrel Basin), an area where surface water is scarce and water users rely primarily on groundwater from five different aquifers (the Upper Black Squirrel Creek alluvial aquifer and four bedrock aquifers within the Denver Basin aquifer system: the lower Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) to meet their needs. Currently (2024), land within the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin is primarily used for rural grazing and agriculture; however, municipal development is ongoing. In 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Black Squirrel Creek Ground Water Management District, began a study to establish a baseline dataset and assess the groundwater resources of the aquifers within the Black Squirrel Basin. A network of 39 wells was established in 2021; discrete groundwater-level measurements were made bimonthly. Nine of the 39 wells were equipped with pressure transducers to record hourly groundwater-level data. Seven wells had statistically significant seasonal trends, and trends at 3 wells were negative. For the discrete data, 16 wells had a significant trend for the study period, and 4 wells had negative trends. For the time-series data, 8 wells had significant trends, and 3 wells had negative trends. Potentiometric surface maps were created for this study using discrete, static groundwater levels measured in April 2023. These maps showed the estimated groundwater flow direction from the north-northwest to the south-southeast in the alluvial aquifer and from the northwest to the east-southeast for the lower Dawson and Denver aquifer wells. This study indicates the potential benefit of monitoring wells in the areas near municipal pumping. Additional monitoring could lead to a better understanding of connectivity between aquifers and be an important tool for assessing long-term sustainability of groundwater use.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Hydrogeologic framework and considerations for drilling and grouting of closed-loop geothermal bores in the Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau of New York State

The hydrogeologic framework at closed-loop geothermal sites in the Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau of central and western New York is the result of the complex interaction of bedrock geology, glacial geology, and groundwater hydrology, and the occurrence of petroleum and gas. Considerations for closed-loop geothermal bore installation include the thickness and character of glacial deposits, bedrock solubility and depth to competent rock, karst development, the distribution of highly permeable zones and their hydraulic heads, and the presence of saline water, gas, and oil. The hydrogeology of the Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau poses challenges to closed-loop geothermal bore drilling and casing; managing drill cuttings, discharge water, and gas; and grouting. The potential to encounter severe challenges typically increases with bore depth. This report highlights hydrogeologic considerations for closed-loop geothermal bore installation in New York’s Erie-Ontario Lowlands and Allegheny Plateau to help guide the efficient and safe development of geothermal resources in the regions.

New York↗

USGS2025

Smectite-rich horizons in Inceptisols trigger shallow landslides in tropical granitic terranes

Puerto Rico was affected by >70,000 landslides in the wake of 2017 Hurricane Maria, and landslide prevalence was especially high in the Utuado region in the Cordillera Central. Landslide density was highest where soil parent material is granodiorite; landslide slip surfaces tended to be shallow (<60 cm), and often were mobilized rapidly and with long runout distances. This study combines field observations with soil mineralogy (bulk and clay fractions), soil geochemistry (bulk fraction), and soil strength as determined by field cone penetrometer testing (CPT) to test the hypothesis that clay-rich subsoil horizons function as slip planes when water-logged. Soil pits were excavated to depths of ∼200 cm in Ultisols on an undulating plateau and to ∼100 cm in Inceptisols on steep slopes (36-43 o ) that flank the plateau and cone penetrometer tests (CPT) were done within 2 m of the soil pit. Six pits were located adjacent to scarps from previous landslides, enabling analysis of soil profiles downward through extrapolated slip surfaces. Results from X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) indicate that soils are heterogeneous, often with subsoil horizons enriched in clay minerals and immobile elements (Al, Fe, Ti). Inceptisols on steep slopes often contain smectite-rich horizons at 30–60 cm depth that appear to function as slip surfaces; in other Inceptisols, such horizons are not present and landslide susceptibility is potentially lower. In Ultisols, soil mineralogy is dominated by kaolinite with minor halloysite, and increased kaolinite content at soil depths ≥80 cm at some sites suggests potential slip surfaces enhancing probability of landslides. The origin of clay-rich horizons appears to be (1) fractures in granodiorite that facilitate water flow and leaching, accelerating mineral dissolution during early weathering stages, and (2) smectite-rich buried soils under permeable colluvium likely deposited by a prior mass wasting event. Where clay-rich layers occur beneath more-permeable horizons, rapid infiltration then absorption of water in clay-rich subsoil horizons causes decreased shear strength and increased landslide susceptibility.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2024

Indications of preferential groundwater seepage feeding northern peatland pools

Groundwater seepage from underlying permeable glacial sedimentary structures, such as eskers, has been hypothesized to directly feed pools in northern peat bogs. These hypotheses directly contradict classical peat bog models for ombrogenous systems, wherein meteoric water is the sole water input to these systems. Variations in the underlying mineral sediment in contact with the peat imply that unrecognized hydrogeologic connectivity may exist with pools in northern peat bogs, particularly where high permeability materials are in contact with the peat. Seepage dynamics originating from these structural variations were investigated using a suite of thermal and hydrogeophysical methods deployed around pools in a peat bog of northeastern Maine, USA. Thermal characterization methods mapped anomalies that were confirmed as matrix seepage or preferential flow pathways (PFPs). Geochemical methods were employed at identified thermal anomalies to confirm upwelling of solute-rich groundwater. Conduits around pools were associated with surficial terminations of suspected peat pipes, based on the inference of pathways extending down into the peat, that focus flow through PFPs in the peat matrix. Discharge also occurred through the peat matrix adjacent to suspected pipe structures and matrix seepage rates were quantified using analysis of diurnal temperature signals recorded at multiple depths. Seepage rates, with a maximum of nearly 0.4 m/d, were measured at localized points around pools. Periods of synchronized temperatures paired with highly muted diurnal temperature signals, recorded in diurnal temperature with depth data, were interpreted qualitatively as activation of strong upward discharge rates through suspected peat pipes. These time periods correlated strongly with local precipitation events around the peatland. Ground-penetrating radar surveys revealed discontinuities in the low permeability glacio-marine clay at the mineral sediment-peat interface, interpreted to be regional glacial esker deposits, which were located beneath and around pools. Heat tracing, specific conductance contrasts, seepage rates, and trace metal concentrations all imply groundwater seepage originating from underlying permeable glacial esker deposits and directly sourcing pools. Preferential groundwater inputs into northern peat bogs may play a key role in developing and maintaining pool systems, with enhanced solute transport impacting peatland ecology, water resources, and carbon cycling.

Maine↗