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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

Investigating apparent misalignment of predator-prey dynamics: Great Lakes lake trout and sea lampreys

Interpreting ecological dynamics is challenging when observed patterns are not aligned with presumed models. Investigating possible sources of uncertainty is critical to understand the underlying system and ultimately inform management decisions. In this study, we used simulation to investigate the hypothesis that observed inconsistencies in Great Lakes lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) and sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) predator-prey dynamics were caused by measurement error in the abundance and predation metrics. When lake trout abundances increase and sea lamprey abundances decrease, predation rates are expected to decline (and vice versa). Occasionally predation rates do not change as expected, leading to an inconsistency in expected predator-prey dynamics. We used a Type II functional response model to align lake trout relative abundance, adult sea lamprey abundance, and sea lamprey marking rates of lake trout in each Great Lake. Then we added measurement error to each of the simulated metrics to see how it contributed to observed inconsistencies in the marking rates. The simulated inconsistency rate was far less than the observed inconsistency rate in Lakes Superior and Erie, indicating that measurement error was not primarily responsible for the misalignment of metrics, contrary to our hypothesis. Rather than ignoring these inconsistencies as unfortunate consequences of imperfect assessments, we recommend that future inconsistencies be scrutinized for possible mechanistic explanations. We suspect that predator-prey dynamics are being influenced by spatially structured within-lake components and the presence of alternative hosts, neither of which were accounted for in the functional response model we used.

Great Lakes↗

Transcriptome analysis of rainbow trout infected with high and low virulence strains of Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus

There are three main genetic lineages or genogroups of Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in N. America. Strains representing the M genogroup are more virulent in rainbow trout relative to the U genogroup. In this study, we used microarray analysis to evaluate potential mechanisms responsible for host-specific virulence in rainbow trout that were given intraperitoneal injections of buffer or a representative M or U type virus strain. Reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) was used to assess viral load and gene expression of select immune genes. Viral load was significantly higher in trout infected with the M virus starting at 24 h post-infection (p.i.) and continuing until 72 h p.i. Microarray analysis of the 48 h time point revealed 153 up-regulated and 248 down-regulated features in response to M virus infection but only 62 up-regulated and 49 down-regulated features following U virus infection. Translation and transcription features were among the most frequent down-regulated features in response to M virus infection and may be associated with the host cell shutoff phenomenon. A greater host cell shutoff response by the M virus may facilitate subversion of the host cell transcriptional machinery and enhance viral replication, suggesting the M virus may be better optimized to manipulate the rainbow trout transcriptional and translational machinery. Anti-viral associated features were the most commonly up-regulated features. A common set of features were up-regulated in both the M and U infection groups, but were induced to a higher magnitude in the M infection group. Gene expression of the anti-viral genes Mx-1 and Vig-1 was correlated but not entirely dependent on viral load in the anterior kidney. Slower replication of the U virus may allow the host more time to induce protective anti-viral immune mechanisms.

Fish and Shellfish Immunology↗

Heritage strain and diet of wild young of year and yearling lake trout in the main basin of Lake Huron

Restoration of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush stocks in Lake Huron is a fish community objective developed to promote sustainable fish communities in the lake. Between 1985 and 2004, 12.65 million lake trout were stocked into Lake Huron representing eight different genetic strains. Collections of bona fide wild fish in USGS surveys have increased in recent years and this study examined the ancestry and diet of fish collected between 2004 and 2006 to explore the ecological role they occupy in Lake Huron. Analysis of microsatellite DNA revealed that both pure strain and inter-strain hybrids were observed, and the majority of fish were classified as Seneca Lake strain or Seneca Lake hybrids. Diets of 50 wild age-0 lake trout were examined. Mysis, chironomids, and zooplankton were common prey items of wild age-0 lake trout. These results indicate that stocked fish are successfully reproducing in Lake Huron indicating a level of restoration success. However, continued changes to the benthic macroinvertebrate community, particularly declines of Mysis, may limit growth and survival of wild fish and hinder restoration efforts.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Assessing the assumptions of classification agreement, accuracy, and predictable healing time of sea lamprey wounds on lake trout

Sea lamprey control in the Laurentian Great Lakes relies on records of sea lamprey wounds on lake trout to assess whether control efforts are supporting fisheries management targets. Wounding records have been maintained for 70 years under the assumption that they are a reliable and accurate reflection of sea lamprey damage inflicted on fish populations. However, two key assumptions underpinning the use of these data need thorough evaluation: sea lamprey wounds follow a predictable healing progression, and individuals classify wounds accurately and reliably. To assess these assumptions, we conducted a workshop where experienced professionals examined lake trout with known sea lamprey wounds. For most lake trout, pictures were taken at regular intervals during the healing process. Our evaluation of wound pictures found high variability in healing times and wound progressions that did not conform to the currently used classification system. Participants’ wound classification agreement and accuracy were low and misclassification rates were high for most wound types. Training provided during the workshops did not markedly improve these metrics. We assessed wound classification accuracy for the first time and found assumptions of high accuracy and agreement are not met. We recommend misclassification rates be incorporated into models using wound data, sensitivity analyses be conducted to assess the potential impact of wound misclassification on estimates of key metrics (such as sea lamprey-induced mortality for lake trout), and alternative biomarkers be developed to quantify wound status with greater accuracy and precision.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

Transcriptional profiling of MHC class I genes in rainbow trout infected with infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus

Major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules are important mediators of cell-mediated immunity in vertebrates. MHC class IA molecules are important for host anti-viral immunity as they present intracellular antigens and regulate natural killer cell (NK) activity. MHC class Ib molecules on the other hand are less understood and have demonstrated diverse immune and non-immune functions in mammals. Rainbow trout possess a single classical MHC IA locus ( Onmy -UBA) that is believed to function similar to that of mammalian MHC class Ia. Numerous MHC class Ib genes with undetermined functions have also been described in trout. Here we utilize quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) techniques to survey the levels of basal and inducible transcription for selected trout MHC class Ib genes, sIgM and sentinels of IFN induction in response to viral infection. Basal transcription of all the class Ib genes examined in this study was lower than Onmy -UBA in naïve fish. UBA, along with all of the non-classical genes were induced in fish infected with virus but not in control fish. Our results support a non-classical designation for the majority of the class IB genes surveyed in this study based upon expression levels while also indicating that they may play an important role in anti-viral immunity in trout.

Molecular Immunology↗

Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters

We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) = 0.85 and cross-validated AUC = 0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% ( n = 2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality ( n = 1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% ( n = 733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells ( n = 943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.

New York, Pennsylvania↗

A novel member of the family Hepeviridae from cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii )

Beginning in 1988, the Chinook salmon embryo (CHSE-214) cell line was used to isolate a novel virus from spawning adult trout in the state of California, USA. Termed the cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) virus (CTV), the small, round virus was not associated with disease, but was subsequently found to be present in an increasing number of trout populations in the western USA, likely by a combination of improved surveillance activities and the shipment of infected eggs to new locations. Here, we report that the full length genome of the 1988 Heenan Lake isolate of CTV consisted of 7269 nucleotides of positive-sense, single-stranded RNA beginning with a 5' untranslated region (UTR), followed by three open reading frames (ORFs), a 3' UTR and ending in a polyA tail. The genome of CTV was similar in size and organization to that of Hepatitis E virus (HEV) with which it shared the highest nucleotide and amino acid sequence identities. Similar to the genomes of human, rodent or avian hepeviruses, ORF 1 encoded a large, non-structural polyprotein that included conserved methyltransferase, protease, helicase and polymerase domains, while ORF 2 encoded the structural capsid protein and ORF 3 the phosphoprotein. Together, our data indicated that CTV was clearly a member of the family Hepeviridae , although the level of amino acid sequence identity with the ORFs of mammalian or avian hepeviruses (13-27%) may be sufficiently low to warrant the creation of a novel genus. We also performed a phylogenetic analysis using a 262. nt region within ORF 1 for 63 isolates of CTV obtained from seven species of trout reared in various geographic locations in the western USA. While the sequences fell into two genetic clades, the overall nucleotide diversity was low (less than 8.4%) and many isolates differed by only 1-2 nucleotides, suggesting an epidemiological link. Finally, we showed that CTV was able to form persistently infected cultures of the CHSE-214 cell line that may have use in research on the biology or treatment of hepevirus infections of humans or other animals.

Virus Research↗

Molecular characterization of a novel orthomyxovirus from rainbow and steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss )

A novel virus, rainbow trout orthomyxovirus (RbtOV), was isolated in 1997 and again in 2000 from commercially-reared rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in Idaho, USA. The virus grew optimally in the CHSE-214 cell line at 15°C producing a diffuse cytopathic effect; however, juvenile rainbow trout exposed to cell culture-grown virus showed no mortality or gross pathology. Electron microscopy of preparations from infected cell cultures revealed the presence of typical orthomyxovirus particles. The complete genome of RbtOV is comprised of eight linear segments of single-stranded, negative-sense RNA having highly conserved 5′ and 3′-terminal nucleotide sequences. Another virus isolated in 2014 from steelhead trout (also O. mykiss ) in Wisconsin, USA, and designated SttOV was found to have eight genome segments with high amino acid sequence identities (89–99%) to the corresponding genes of RbtOV, suggesting these new viruses are isolates of the same virus species and may be more widespread than currently realized. The new isolates had the same genome segment order and the closest pairwise amino acid sequence identities of 16–42% with Infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV), the type species and currently only member of the genus Isavirus in the family Orthomyxoviridae . However, pairwise comparisons of the predicted amino acid sequences of the 10 RbtOV and SttOV proteins with orthologs from representatives of the established orthomyxoviral genera and a phylogenetic analysis using the PB1 protein showed that while RbtOV and SttOV clustered most closely with ISAV, they diverged sufficiently to merit consideration as representatives of a novel genus. A set of PCR primers was designed using conserved regions of the PB1 gene to produce amplicons that may be sequenced for identification of similar fish orthomyxoviruses in the future.

Virus Research↗

Survival of lake trout eggs and fry reared in water from the upper Great Lakes

As part of continuing studies of the reproductive failure of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Michigan, we measured the survival of lake trout eggs and fry of different origins and reared in different environments. Eggs and milt were stripped from spawning lake trout collected in the fall of 1980 from southeastern Lake Michigan, northwestern Lake Huron, south central Lake Superior, and from hatchery brood stock. Eggs from all sources were incubated, and the newly hatched fry were reared for 139 days in lake water from each of the three upper Great Lakes and in well water. Survival of eggs to hatching at all sites was lowest for those from Lake Michigan (70% of fertilized eggs) and highest for eggs from Lake Superior (96%). Comparisons of incubation water from the different lakes indicated that hatching success of eggs from all sources was highest in Lake Huron water, and lowest in Lake Michigan water. The most notable finding was the nearly total mortality of fry from eggs of southeastern Lake Michigan lake trout. At all sites, the mean survival of Lake Michigan fry through 139 days after hatching was only 4% compared to near 50% for fry from the other three sources. In a comparison of the rearing sites, little influence of water quality on fry survival was found. Thus, the poor survival was associated with the source of eggs and sperm, not the water in which the fry were reared.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Dispersal of three strains of hatchery-reared lake trout in Lake Ontario

Rates of dispersal and resultant geographical distributions were determined for three strains of hatchery-reared lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) stocked at six sites in U.S. waters of Lake Ontario. The strains were Lake Superior (SUP); Clearwater Lake, Manitoba (CWL); and Seneca Lake, New York (SEN). The fish were recovered with bottom trawls fished during July and August 1980–1985 at 16 locations, extending from Toronto southward and eastward along the south shore to Dablon Point at the east end of the lake. For SUP fish stocked as spring yearlings, the mean distances from stocking site to capture location 2, 14, and 26 months after stocking were 12, 57, and 62 km, respectively, for fish released at four south-shore sites and 5, 34, and 38 km for fish released at two eastern outlet basin sites. Rates of dispersal for the CWL fish were similar to those of the SUP strain for fish stocked at the four south-shore sites, but were considerably less for fish stocked in the eastern outlet basin. The SEN strain was stocked only in the eastern outlet basin; their dispersal was similar to that of the SUP strain. For fish of the same age, SUP fish stocked as fall fingerlings became more widely dispersed than those stocked as spring yearlings. Movement of lake trout between the eastern outlet basin and the lake proper was limited. Large numbers of fish were captured on the Niagara Bar, but few moved past there into the west end of the lake. Movements of lake trout from stocking sites were generally with the prevailing currents. Differences between geographical distributions of the SUP and CWL strains were probably due to the influence of different current regimes at the depths they occupied. These results will be useful in selecting the best genetic strains of lake trout for rehabilitating the species in Lake Ontario, as well as for identifying the best stocking sizes and maximizing post-stocking survival of hatchery-reared fish.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Chronic bioassays of rainbow trout fry with compounds representative of contaminants in Great Lakes fish

To evaluate the hazard of organic compounds detected in Great Lakes fish by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, we tested compounds representative of heterocyclic nitrogen compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and cyclic alkanes and alkenes. Sixty-day bioassays on the effects of nicotine, phenanthrene, pinane, and pinene on the behavior, growth, and survival of rainbow trout fry, Oncorhynchus mykiss , were conducted in a large, constant-flow, temperature-controlled water system. The following 60-day LCSO's were determined (mg/L): nicotine 5.0, phenanthrene 0.2, pinane 0.8, and pinene 1.2. Values of lowest observed effects level (LOEL) and no observed effects level (NOEL) showed that growth was generally as sensitive an endpoint as behavior and was more sensitive than time of swim-up. The 60-day LC50 values for rainbow trout were compared with earlier acute bioassays with Daphnia pulex and rainbow trout and chronic bioassays with D.pulex conducted at the Great Lakes Science Center. Rainbow trout fry were less sensitive than daphnids in all tests, indicating that toxicity tests with daphnids should be protective of salmonid fry for these types of compounds. The results for representative compounds indicate that these classes of compounds should be included in aquatic risk assessments at sites in the Great Lakes.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Introduction to the Proceedings of the 1994 International Conference on Restoration of Lake Trout in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) restoration in the Great Lakes began in the 1950s when stocking of artificially propagated lake trout was coupled with the first attempts at sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control. A major milestone in the restoration process was recorded when a selective sea lamprey larvicide was identified in 1958 (Applegate et al. 1958) and then applied broad scale in Lake Superior in 1958-60 (Applegate et al. 1961). Other milestones include the expansion of the sea lamprey control programs into Lakes Michigan and Huron in 1960 (sustained usage in Lake Huron began in 1966, Smith and Tibbles 1980), Lake Ontario in 1971-72 (Elrod et al. 1995), and Lake Erie in 1986 (Cornelius et al. 1995). Following the collapse of lake trout in the Great Lakes and the implementation of massive stocking of hatchery-reared fish and effective sea lamprey control, the first documented evidence of nearshore natural reproduction of lake trout was in Lake Superior in 1965 (Dryer and King 1968), in Lake Michigan in 1980 (Jude et al. 1981), in Lake Huron in 1981-82 (Nester and Poe 1984), and in Lake Ontario in 1986 (Marsden et al. 1988).

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Hatching, dispersal, and bathymetric distribution of age-0 wild lake trout at the Gull Island Shoal complex, Lake Superior

We studied age-0 lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) associated with spawning and nursery areas of the Gull Island Shoal complex in western Lake Superior. Post-emergent age-0 lake trout were captured on rocky spawning substrate with a 3-m beam trawl and at the nursery area with a bottom trawl from June to September 1990 and June to August 1991. Catch data suggested that age-0 lake trout move distances of 7–11 km to the nursery area over a 3-month period. Water currents, measured at Gull Island Shoal, may be a part of the transport mechanism. Examination of daily-growth increments on the sagittae and back-calculation from the date of capture revealed that most fish hatched between 6 June and 19 July in 1990 and between 30 April and 30 May in 1991. The duration of the hatch was 100 days in 1990 and 120 days in 1991, and the estimated incubation period is about 7 months for lake trout eggs at this site. Similar hatch-date distributions of age-0 captured on different sampling dates suggested that natural mortality was low.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Availability of lake trout reproductive habitat in the Great Lakes

A decades-long program to reestablish self-sustaining stocks of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in the four lower Great Lakes produced excellent fisheries supported by stocked fish. These fish spawned widely and small numbers of their offspring were collected intermittently from Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario, but no self-sustaining stocks were established. Irt this paper we address habitat sufficiency as a factor in the failure of stocked lake trout to established self-sustaining populations in the four lower Great Lakes. We present the previously unpublished results of lake trout spawning habitat surveys conducted at seven sites in the Great Lakes since 1987 and we compare them with the published results of similar surveys conducted at 24 other sites in the four lower lakes since 1981. Our evaluation indicates all but two of these sites can support the production of viable fry from spawnings by the shallow-water strains of lake trout that are stocked in the Great Lakes. However, some of the best spawning, egg, and fry habitat in the lower Great Lakes seems to be at deeper offshore sites that may be unattractive to these shallow-water strains. Thus, we suggest also stocking the lower four lakes with strains from Lake Superior that might more fully exploit the best spawning habitat at these deeper, offshore sites.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

An evaluation of lake trout reproductive habitat on Clay Banks Reef, northwestern Lake Michigan

The extinction of the native populations of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Michigan in about 1956 has been followed by a decades-long attempt to reestablish self-sustaining populations of this valuable species in habitats it formerly occupied throughout the lake. One of the most recent management strategies designed to facilitate recovery was to make a primary management objective the establishment of sanctuaries where stocked lake trout could be protected and self-sustaining populations reestablished. In the present study we employed habitat survey and mapping techniques, field and laboratory bioassays, egg traps, sediment traps, and gill nets to examine the potential for successful natural reproduction by stocked lake trout on Clay Banks Reef in the Door-Kewaunee sanctuary in Wisconsin waters of Lake Michigan. Our study revealed (1) there was suitable habitat on the reef to support the production of viable fry, (2) spawner abundance on the reef was the highest recorded in the great lakes, and (3) eggs taken from spawners on the reef and held on the reef in plexiglas incubators hatched and produced fry that survived through swim-up. We conclude that Clay Banks Reef has the potential to support successful natural reproduction by stocked lake trout.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

Seasonal movements and habitat use of Potamodromous Rainbow Trout across a complex Alaska riverscape

Potamodromous Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss are an important ecological and recreational resource in freshwater ecosystems of Alaska, and increased human development, hydroelectric projects, and reduced escapement of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha may threaten their populations. We used aerial and on-the-ground telemetry tracking, a digital landscape model, and resource selection functions to characterize seasonal movements and habitat use of 232 adult (>400 mm FL) Rainbow Trout across the complex, large (31,221 km 2 ) Susitna River basin of south-central Alaska during 2003–2004 and 2013–2014. We found that fish overwintered in main-stem habitats near tributary mouths from November to April. After ice-out in May, fish ascended tributaries up to 51 km to spawn and afterward moved downstream to lower tributary reaches, assumedly to intercept egg and flesh subsidies provided by spawning salmonids in July and August. Fish transitioned back to main-stem overwintering habitats at the onset of autumn when salmonid spawning waned. Fidelity to tributaries where fish were initially tagged varied across seasons but was high (>0.75) in three out of four drainages. Model-averaged resource selection functions suggested that Rainbow Trout habitat use varied seasonally; fish selected low-gradient, sinuous, main-stem stream reaches in the winter, reaches with suitably sized substrate during spawning, larger reaches during the feeding season prior to the arrival of spawning salmonids, and reaches with high Chinook Salmon spawning habitat potential following the arrival of adult fish. We found little difference in movement patterns between males and females among a subset of fish for which sex was determined using genetic analysis. As most Rainbow Trout undertake extensive movements within and among tributaries and make use of a variety of seasonal habitats to complete their life histories, it will be critical to take a basinwide approach to their management (i.e., habitat protection and angling bag limits) in light of anticipated land-use changes.

Alaska↗

Evaluation of offshore stocking of Lake Trout in Lake Ontario

Restoration stocking of hatchery-reared lake trout Salvelinus namaycush has occurred in Lake Ontario since 1973. In U.S. waters, fish stocked through 1990 survived well and built a large adult population. Survival of yearlings stocked from shore declined during 1990–1995, and adult numbers fell during 1998–2005. Offshore stocking of lake trout was initiated in the late 1990s in response to its successful mitigation of predation losses to double-crested cormorants Phalacrocorax auritus and the results of earlier studies that suggested it would enhance survival in some cases. The current study was designed to test the relative effectiveness of three stocking methods at a time when poststocking survival for lake trout was quite low and losses due to fish predators was a suspected factor. The stocking methods tested during 2000–2002 included May offshore, May onshore, and June onshore. Visual observations during nearshore stockings and hydroacoustic observations of offshore stockings indicated that release methods were not a direct cause of fish mortality. Experimental stockings were replicated for 3 years at one site in the southwest and for 2 years at one site in the southeast. Offshore releases used a landing craft to transport hatchery trucks from 3 to 6 km offshore out to 55–60-m-deep water. For the southwest site, offshore stocking significantly enhanced poststocking survival. Among the three methods, survival ratios were 1.74 : 1.00 : 1.02 (May offshore : May onshore : June onshore). Although not statistically significant owing to the small samples, the trends were similar for the southeast site, with survival ratios of 1.67 : 1.00 : 0.72. Consistent trends across years and sites indicated that offshore stocking of yearling lake trout during 2000–2002 provided nearly a twofold enhancement in survival; however, this increase does not appear to be great enough to achieve the 12-fold enhancement necessary to return population abundance to restoration targets.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Population dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout during 1985-2007

Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush were extirpated from Lake Ontario circa 1950 owing to commercial and recreational fishing, predation by sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus , and habitat degradation. Since the 1970s, substantial efforts have been devoted to reestablishing a self-sustaining population through stocking, sea lamprey control, and harvest reduction. Although a stocking-supported population has been established, only limited natural reproduction has been detected. Since the 1990s, surveys have indicated a continuing decline in overall abundance despite fairly static stocking levels. We constructed a statistical catch-at-age model to describe the dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout from 1985 to 2007 and explore what factor(s) could be causing the declines in abundance. Model estimates indicated that abundance had declined by approximately 76% since 1985. The factor that appeared most responsible for this was an increase in age-1 natural mortality rates from approximately 0.9 to 2.5 between 1985 and 2002. The largest source of mortality for age-2 and older fish was sea lamprey predation, followed by natural and recreational fishing mortality. Exploitation was low, harvest levels being uncertain and categorized by length rather than age. Accurate predictions of fishery harvest and survey catch per unit effort were obtained despite low harvest levels by using atypical data (e.g., numbers stocked as an absolute measure of recruitment) and a flexible modeling approach. Flexible approaches such as this might allow similar assessments for a wide range of lightly exploited stocks. The mechanisms responsible for declining age-1 lake trout survival are unknown, but the declines were coincident with an increase in the proportion of stocked fish that were of the Seneca strain and a decrease in the overall stocking rate. It is possible that earlier studies suggesting that Seneca strain lake trout would be successful in Lake Ontario are no longer applicable given the large ecosystem changes that have occurred subsequent to invasion by dreissenid mussels.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗