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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Estimating bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) abundance using noninvasive sampling at a mineral lick within a National Park Wilderness Area

Conservation of species requires accurate population estimates. We used genetic markers from feces to determine bighorn sheep abundance for a herd that was hypothesized to be declining and in need of population status monitoring. We sampled from a small but accessible portion of the population's range where animals naturally congregate at a natural mineral lick to test whether we could accurately estimate population size by sampling from an area where animals concentrate. We used mark-recapture analysis to derive population estimates, and compared estimates from this smaller spatial sampling to estimates from sampling of the entire bighorn sheep range. We found that estimates were somewhat comparable; in 2009, the mineral lick sample and entire range sample differed by 20 individuals, and in 2010 they differed by only one individual. However, we captured 13 individuals in the entire range sample that were not captured at the mineral lick, and thus violated a model assumption that all individuals had an equal opportunity of being captured. This eliminated the possibility of inferring a total population estimate from just animals visiting the mineral lick, but because estimates were relatively similar, monitoring at the mineral lick can provide a useful index for management and conservation. We compared our results to a radio-collar study conducted in 2003–2004 and confirmed that the population remained stable since 2004. Our population estimates were 78 (CI 62–114) in 2009 and 95 (CI 77–131) in 2010. Between 7 and 11 sampling dates were needed to achieve a CV of 20% for population estimates, assuming a capture probability between 0.09 and 0.13. We relied on citizen science volunteers to maximize data collection and reduce costs; 71% of all fecal samples were collected by volunteers, compared to 29% collected by paid staff. We conclude that our technique provides a useful monitoring tool for managers. The technique could be tested and applied in similar populations where animals congregate with high fidelity at a mineral lick or other area.

Colorado↗

USGS2008

Factors influencing leaf litter decomposition: An intersite decomposition experiment across China

The Long-Term Intersite Decomposition Experiment in China (hereafter referred to as LTIDE-China) was established in 2002 to study how substrate quality and macroclimate factors affect leaf litter decomposition. The LTIDE-China includes a wide variety of natural and managed ecosystems, consisting of 12 forest types (eight regional broadleaf forests, three needle-leaf plantations and one broadleaf plantation) at eight locations across China. Samples of mixed leaf litter from the south subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest in Dinghushan (referred to as the DHS sample) were translocated to all 12 forest types. The leaf litter from each of other 11 forest types was placed in its original forest to enable comparison of decomposition rates of DHS and local litters. The experiment lasted for 30 months, involving collection of litterbags from each site every 3 months. Our results show that annual decomposition rate-constants, as represented by regression fitted k-values, ranged from 0.169 to 1.454/year. Climatic factors control the decomposition rate, in which mean annual temperature and annual actual evapotranspiration are dominant and mean annual precipitation is subordinate. Initial C/N and N/P ratios were demonstrated to be important factors of regulating litter decomposition rate. Decomposition process may apparently be divided into two phases controlled by different factors. In our study, 0.75 years is believed to be the dividing line of the two phases. The fact that decomposition rates of DHS litters were slower than those of local litters may have been resulted from the acclimation of local decomposer communities to extraneous substrate. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Plant and Soil↗

USGS2017

Plant diversity increases with the strength of negative density dependence at the global scale

Theory predicts that higher biodiversity in the tropics is maintained by specialized interactions among plants and their natural enemies that result in conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). By using more than 3000 species and nearly 2.4 million trees across 24 forest plots worldwide, we show that global patterns in tree species diversity reflect not only stronger CNDD at tropical versus temperate latitudes but also a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance. CNDD was stronger for rare species at tropical versus temperate latitudes, potentially causing the persistence of greater numbers of rare species in the tropics. Our study reveals fundamental differences in the nature of local-scale biotic interactions that contribute to the maintenance of species diversity across temperate and tropical communities.

Science↗

USGS2001

Nature and chlorine reactivity of organic constituents from reclaimed water in groundwater, Los Angeles County, California

The nature and chlorine reactivity of organic constituents in reclaimed water (tertiary-treated municipal wastewater) before, during, and after recharge into groundwater at the Montebello Forebay in Los Angeles County, CA, was the focus of this study. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) in reclaimed water from this site is primarily a mixture of aromatic sulfonates from anionic surfactant degradation, N-acetyl amino sugars and proteins from bacterial activity, and natural fulvic acid, whereas DOM from native groundwaters in the aquifer to which reclaimed water was recharged consists of natural fulvic acids. The hydrophilic neutral N-acetyl amino sugars that constitute 40% of the DOM in reclaimed water are removed during the first 3 m of vertical infiltration in the recharge basin. Groundwater age dating with 3H and 3He isotopes, and determinations of organic and inorganic C isotopes, enabled clear differentiation of recent recharged water from older native groundwater. Phenol structures in natural fulvic acids in DOM isolated from groundwater produced significant trihalomethanes (THM) and total organic halogen (TOX) yields upon chlorination, and these structures also were responsible for the enhanced SUVA and specific fluorescence characteristics relative to DOM in reclaimed water. Aromatic sulfonates and fulvic acids in reclaimed water DOM produced minimal THM and TOX yields.

California↗

USGS2025

Triple-oxygen isotopic evidence of prolonged direct bioleaching of pyrite with O2

Sulfate is often touted as containing atmospheric oxygen whose isotopic signature can constrain redox, environmental conditions, and biological activity. Yet, the amount and isotopic fractionation associated with air-O 2 incorporation during sulfate formation is still debated, making its verification difficult. In this study, we identify a distinct, microbially dominated environment with the potential to preserve maximum signals of air-O 2 in sulfate. We report triple-oxygen isotope data for sulfate produced from pyrite oxidation in microbial and abiotic experiments, and from natural dissolved sulfate from the Rio Tinto, Spain, an acid mine drainage site. The oxygen isotope systematics of sulfate in these environments define a unique kinetic isotope effect associated with initial stage pyrite oxidation by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans that preserves >80 % oxygen from air-O 2 in sulfate. Unlike experiments, which evolve toward water-oxygen dominated sulfate on short time scales, Rio Tinto, Spain hosts a microbe rich environment with distinct geochemistry that maintains high O 2 -oxygen in sulfate. Therefore, in addition to containing isotopic records from water and air, sulfates can also contain a biosignature that is promising for understanding conditions on Mars and early Earth.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2021

Optical properties of water for prediction of wastewater contamination, human-associated bacteria, and fecal indicator bacteria in surface water at three watershed scales

Relations between spectral absorbance and fluorescence properties of water and human-associated and fecal indicator bacteria were developed for facilitating field sensor applications to estimate wastewater contamination in waterways. Leaking wastewater conveyance infrastructure commonly contaminates receiving waters. Methods to quantify such contamination can be time consuming, expensive, and often nonspecific. Human-associated bacteria are wastewater specific but require discrete sampling and laboratory analyses, introducing latency. Human sewage has fluorescence and absorbance properties different than those of natural waters. To assist real-time field sensor development, this study investigated optical properties for use as surrogates for human-associated bacteria to estimate wastewater prevalence in environmental waters. Three spatial scales were studied: Eight watershed-scale sites, five subwatershed-scale sites, and 213 storm sewers and open channels within three small watersheds (small-scale sites) were sampled (996 total samples) for optical properties, human-associated bacteria, fecal indicator bacteria, and, for selected samples, human viruses. Regression analysis indicated that bacteria concentrations could be estimated by optical properties used in existing field sensors for watershed and subwatershed scales. Human virus occurrence increased with modeled human-associated bacteria concentration, providing confidence in these regressions as surrogates for wastewater contamination. Adequate regressions were not found for small-scale sites to reliably estimate bacteria concentrations likely due to inconsistent local sanitary sewer inputs.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Wisconsin↗

USGS2021

Scale growth rates and scale circulus deposition rates of marine-stage Atlantic salmon Salmo salar raised under semi-natural conditions

Scale circuli yield valuable information about the life history, age, and growth of a fish. However, because circuli formation is influenced by somatic growth, the rate at which circuli are formed and the factors influencing these rates must be taken into account for the given life stage of the study species. Scales were collected from Atlantic salmon raised in marine net pens off of the coast of Maine in order to characterize the formation of scale circuli and the growth of scales during the ocean phase, and to relate circulus deposition and scale growth rate to water temperature. Fish were sampled 13 times over a period of 25 months. Neither circulus deposition rate nor growth rate were constant through time and the same trend held when circulus deposition and growth were related to thermal experience. Both rates decreased over the course of the study, presumably related to the fish reaching sexual maturity. The results of this study indicate that the pattern of circulus deposition and scale growth of Atlantic salmon vary greatly during the early marine phase, and this dynamic should be taken into account when assessing growth, especially over short time periods.

Newfoundland↗

USGS1976

Discovery of natural resources

Mankind will continue to need ores of more or less the types and grades used today to supply its needs for new mineral raw materials, at least until fusion or some other relatively cheap, inexhaustible energy source is developed. Most deposits being mined today were exposed at the surface or found by relatively simple geophysical or other prospecting techniques, but many of these will be depleted in the foreseeable future. The discovery of deeper or less obvious deposits to replace them will require the conjunction of science and technology to deduce the laws that governed the concentration of elements into ores and to detect and evaluate the evidence of their whereabouts. Great theoretical advances are being made to explain the origins of ore deposits and understand the general reasons for their localization. These advances have unquestionable value for exploration. Even a large deposit is, however, very small, and, with few exceptions, it was formed under conditions that have long since ceased to exist. The explorationist must suppress a great deal of "noise" to read and interpret correctly the "signals" that can define targets and guide the drilling required to find it. Is enough being done to ensure the long-term availability of mineral raw materials? The answer is probably no, in view of the expanding consumption and the difficulty of finding new deposits, but ingenuity, persistence, and continued development of new methods and tools to add to those already at hand should put off the day of "doing without" for many years. The possibility of resource exhaustion, especially in view of the long and increasing lead time needed to carry out basic field and laboratory studies in geology, geophysics, and geochemistry and to synthesize and analyze the information gained from them counsels against any letting down of our guard, however (17). Research and exploration by government, academia, and industry must be supported and encouraged; we cannot wait until an eleventh hour to mount a "crash program.".

Science↗

USGS2022

Evaluating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to bats in the context of wildlife research, rehabilitation, and control

Preventing wildlife disease outbreaks is a priority for natural resource agencies, and management decisions can be urgent, especially in epidemic circumstances. With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, wildlife agencies were concerned whether the activities they authorize might increase the risk of viral transmission from humans to North American bats, but had a limited amount of time in which to make decisions. We describe how decision analysis provides a powerful framework to analyze and reanalyze complex natural resource management problems as knowledge evolves. Coupled with expert judgment and avenues for the rapid release of information, risk assessment can provide timely scientific information for evolving decisions. In April 2020, the first rapid risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to North American bats. Based on the best available information and relying heavily on expert judgment, the risk assessment found a small possibility of transmission during summer work activities. Following that assessment, additional knowledge and data emerged, such as bat viral challenge studies, that further elucidated the risks of human-to-bat transmission and culminated in a second risk assessment in the fall of 2020. We updated the first SARS-CoV-2 risk assessment with new management alternatives and new estimates of little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ) susceptibility, using findings from the fall 2020 assessment and other empirical studies. We found that new knowledge led to an 88% decrease in the median number of bats estimated to be infected per 1,000 encountered when compared to earlier results. The use of facemasks during, or a negative COVID-19 test or vaccination prior to, bat encounters further reduced those risks. Using a combination of decision analysis, expert judgment, rapid risk assessment, and efficient modes of information distribution, we provided timely science-based support to decision makers for summer bat work in North America.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2016

U.S. Geological Survey—Energy and Wildlife Research Annual Report for 2016

Recent growth and development of renewable energy and unconventional oil and gas extraction are rapidly diversifying the energy supply of the United States. Yet, as our Nation works to advance energy security and conserve wildlife, some conflicts have surfaced. To address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting innovative research and developing workable solutions to reduce the impacts of energy production on wildlife. USGS scientists collaborate on many studies with scientists from other Federal, State, and local government agencies; Tribal nations; academic research institutions; and nongovernmental and private organizations. The mix of fuels used for electricity generation is evolving. Solar, natural gas, and wind energy made up most electricity generation additions in 2015 and 2016. The United States now leads the world in natural gas production, with new record highs for each year from 2011 through 2015. More than 48,000 wind turbines now contribute to power grids in most States, providing about 5 percent of U.S. end-use electricity demand in an average year. The number of utility-scale solar-energy projects is growing rapidly with solar energy projected to contribute to the largest electricity generation addition in 2016. A substantial number of large energy projects have been constructed on undeveloped public lands, and more are anticipated at an increasing rate, creating new stress to wildlife. Direct impacts include collisions with wind turbines and structures at solar facilities and loss of habitat which may negatively affect sensitive species. Recent estimates suggest 250,000 to 500,000 birds die each year at wind turbine facilities. Bat fatality rates at wind turbine facilities are less certain, but may average several hundred thousand per year throughout North America. Because new projects may be located in or near sensitive wildlife habitats, ecological science plays a key role in helping to guide project siting and operational decisions.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Alternative life histories shape brain gene expression profiles in males of the same population

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) undergo spectacular marine migrations before homing to spawn in natal rivers. However, males that grow fastest early in life can adopt an alternative 'sneaker' tactic by maturing earlier at greatly reduced size without leaving freshwater. While the ultimate evolutionary causes have been well studied, virtually nothing is known about the molecular bases of this developmental plasticity. We investigate the nature and extent of coordinated molecular changes that accompany such a fundamental transformation by comparing the brain transcription profiles of wild mature sneaker males to age-matched immature males (future large anadromous males) and immature females. Of the ca. 3000 genes surveyed, 15% are differentially expressed in the brains of the two male types. These genes are involved in a wide range of processes, including growth, reproduction and neural plasticity. Interestingly, despite the potential for wide variation in gene expression profiles among individuals sampled in nature, consistent patterns of gene expression were found for individuals of the same reproductive tactic. Notably, gene expression patterns in immature males were different both from immature females and sneakers, indicating that delayed maturation and sea migration by immature males, the 'default' life cycle, may actually result from an active inhibition of development into a sneaker. ?? 2005 The Royal Society.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2025

Dietary bioavailability of uranium to a model freshwater invertebrate

Uranium (U) mining increases environmental exposures. Understanding how U is taken up by organisms can aid in evaluating the potential for bioaccumulation and toxicity. Although the importance of aqueous geochemical speciation is well recognized for U bioavailability after dissolved exposures, far less is known about the processes controlling U bioavailability after dietary exposures. This study characterizes the biogeochemical drivers of dietary U uptake in the freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis in laboratory experiments. Solids tested included benthic diatoms pre-exposed to dissolved U(VI), soils from contaminated U mine sites, and colloidal hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) synthesized in the presence of dissolved U(VI) or with U complexed by natural organic matter (NOM). Results showed that U was bioavailable from all solids. Uranium assimilation efficiency (AE), a proxy for dietary U bioavailability, varied among solids. AE was lowest for the U-contaminated soils (25 ± 17%) and highest for the U-laden diatoms (71 ± 13%). AE varied slightly among HFO preparations, suggesting modest influences of NOM and iron on U bioavailability. Increases in dietary U exposures reduced feeding rates, and the extent of feeding inhibition appeared inversely related to U bioavailability. The high U assimilation and range of bioavailability have implications for toxicity risks inferred without considering dietary uptake.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

USGS2010

Environmental drivers of fish functional diversity and composition in the Lower Colorado River Basin

Freshwater conservation efforts require an understanding of how natural and anthropogenic factors shape the present-day biogeography of native and non-native species. This knowledge need is especially acute for imperiled native fishes in the highly modified Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), USA. In the present study we employed both a taxonomic and functional approach to explore how natural and human-related environmental drivers shape landscape-scale patterns of fish community composition in the LCRB. Our results showed that hydrologic alteration, watershed land use, and regional climate explained 30.3% and 44.7% of the total variation in fish community taxonomic and functional composition, respectively. Watersheds with greater dam densities and upstream storage capacity supported higher non-native functional diversity, suggesting that dams have provided additional "niche opportunities" for non-native equilibrium life-history strategists by introducing new reservoir habitat and modifying downstream flow and thermal regimes. By contrast, watersheds characterized by greater upstream land protection, lower dam densities, and higher variation in spring and summer precipitation supported fish communities with a strong complement of native species (opportunistic-periodic strategists). In conclusion, our study highlights the utility of a life-history approach to better understand the patterns and processes by which fish communities vary along environmental gradients.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2017

Tectonic evolution of the Central Andean Plateau and implications for the growth of plateaus

Current end-member models for the geodynamic evolution of orogenic plateaus predict ( a ) slow and steady rise during crustal shortening and ablative subduction (i.e., continuous removal) of the lower lithosphere or ( b ) rapid surface uplift following shortening, which is associated with punctuated removal of dense lower lithosphere and/or lower crustal flow. This review integrates results from recent studies of the modern lithospheric structure, geologic evolution, and surface uplift history of the Central Andean Plateau to evaluate the geodynamic processes involved in forming it. Comparison of the timing, magnitude, and distribution of shortening and surface uplift, in combination with other geologic evidence, highlights the pulsed nature of plateau growth. We discuss specific regions and time periods that show evidence for end-member geodynamic processes, including middle–late Miocene surface uplift of the southern Eastern Cordillera and Altiplano associated with shortening and ablative subduction, latest Oligocene–early Miocene and late Miocene–early Pliocene punctuated removal of dense lower lithosphere in the Eastern Cordillera and Altiplano, and late Miocene–early Pliocene crustal flow in the central and northern Altiplano.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences↗

USGS2003

The effect of polychlorinated naphthalenes and tributyltin on the occurrence of aberrant nuclei in erythroid cells of medaka

The micronucleus test using erythrocytes of the peripheral blood of fish is often conducted to evaluate the genotoxic effects of pollutants under experimental and natural conditions. This report presents information on the production of micronuclei and other nuclear anomalies in erythrocytes of medaka ( Oryzias latipes ) exposed to three polychlorinated naphthalene (PCN) formulations (Halowaxes 1014, 1031 and 1051) or tributyltin (TBT). Three types of deviation in the morphology of interphase nuclei were observed in medaka erythrocytes: micronuclei, nuclei fragmented into two equal or unequal parts, and nuclei at different stages of invagination. The number of erythrocytes with nuclear anomalies typically increased after chemical exposure. However, differential dose-response patterns were observed with exposures to PCNs or TBT. Polychlorinated naphthalenes caused genotoxicity, while TBT caused an amitotic effect. Gender did not influence the frequency of nuclear anomalies. This is the first report on the application of the piscine micronuclear test with medaka and is the first study that investigated the potential for detecting micronuclei in erythrocytes from adult medaka exposed in ovo to mutagens.

Environmental Sciences↗

USGS2012

A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of inter- and intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellite-driven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004–2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1–2 m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4 m between the years 1998–2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins.

Lake Turkana↗

USGS2011

Lagrangian mass-flow investigations of inorganic contaminants in wastewater-impacted streams

Understanding the potential effects of increased reliance on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents to meet municipal, agricultural, and environmental flow requires an understanding of the complex chemical loading characteristics of the WWTPs and the assimilative capacity of receiving waters. Stream ecosystem effects are linked to proportions of WWTP effluent under low-flow conditions as well as the nature of the effluent chemical mixtures. This study quantifies the loading of 58 inorganic constituents (nutrients to rare earth elements) from WWTP discharges relative to upstream landscape-based sources. Stream assimilation capacity was evaluated by Lagrangian sampling, using flow velocities determined from tracer experiments to track the same parcel of water as it moved downstream. Boulder Creek, Colorado and Fourmile Creek, Iowa, representing two different geologic and hydrologic landscapes, were sampled under low-flow conditions in the summer and spring. One-half of the constituents had greater loads from the WWTP effluents than the upstream drainages, and once introduced into the streams, dilution was the predominant assimilation mechanism. Only ammonium and bismuth had significant decreases in mass load downstream from the WWTPs during all samplings. The link between hydrology and water chemistry inherent in Lagrangian sampling allows quantitative assessment of chemical fate across different landscapes.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Flood-frequency estimation for very low annual exceedance probabilities using historical, paleoflood, and regional information with consideration of nonstationarity

Streamflow estimates for floods with an annual exceedance probability of 0.001 or lower are needed to accurately portray risks to critical infrastructure, such as nuclear powerplants and large dams. However, extrapolating flood-frequency curves developed from at-site systematic streamflow records to very low annual exceedance probabilities (less than 0.001) results in large uncertainties in the streamflow estimates. Traditionally, methods for statistically estimating flood frequency have relied on the systematic streamflow record, which provides a time series of annual maximum flood peaks, often including some historical peaks. However, most peak-flow records are less than 100 years, and uncertainties are large when trying to extrapolate magnitudes of very low annual exceedance probability events. Other data may be available that extend the record beyond the systematic dataset. Historical data are defined as data from outside the period of systematic records but within the period of human records. Examples of historical information include flood estimates from other agencies and newspaper accounts that can be translated to flood magnitude point estimates, interval estimates, or perception thresholds (such as a statement that an 1880 flood was the largest since 1869). Paleoflood data, which may also extend the dataset, include a broad range of information about flood occurrence or magnitude from sources like sediment deposits or tree rings. Several assumptions are made in flood-frequency analysis, and an understanding of whether the data conform to these assumptions is desired. A particularly difficult assumption to evaluate for flood-frequency analysis is the underlying assumption that the flood series is stationary—the assumption that a time series of peak flow varies around a constant mean within a particular range of values (constant variance). As the hydrologic community’s understanding of natural systems and anthropogenic effects on streamflows has evolved, the community has come to understand that many surface-water systems exhibit one or more forms of nonstationarity, and thus the stationarity assumption is often violated to some degree. However, there is currently (2020) no consensus among hydrologists regarding the most appropriate flood-frequency-analysis methods for nonstationary systems, and this topic remains an active area of research. A literature review was completed to summarize the state of the science of flood frequency. The literature review highlights tools available to detect nonstationarities and identifies approaches that include external information to inform flood-frequency analysis. To demonstrate methods for initial data analysis and for incorporating historical and paleoflood information in flood-frequency analysis, five sites were selected: the Red River of the North at James Avenue Pumping Station, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; lower reach, Rapid Creek, South Dakota; Spring Creek, South Dakota; Cherry Creek near Melvin, Colorado; and Escalante River near Escalante, Utah. The sites were chosen for the availability of published historical and paleoflood data and for their geographic diversity and unique characteristics, which highlighted issues such as autocorrelation, change points, trends, outlier peaks, or short periods of record. An initial data analysis that involved examining records for autocorrelation, change points, and trends was completed for all sites. The flood-frequency analysis completed for this study used version 7.2 of the U.S. Geological Survey PeakFQ program. Multiple analyses were done on each site documenting the change in the flood-frequency curve when additional historical or paleoflood data were added. When other flood-frequency studies were available, their results were compared to the results here. The comparisons in some cases simply show the effect of additional years of data, whereas other comparisons show results from probability distributions or fitting methods other than those used in PeakFQ. For the Red River of the North, flood-frequency analysis shows that paleoflood data appear necessary to reasonably estimate very low annual exceedance probabilities. For the analysis of the lower reach of Rapid Creek and Spring Creek, paleoflood information helped put a high outlier from the systematic period in context; however, very low annual exceedance probabilities at these sites still had extraordinarily large confidence bounds. These sites also showed that paleoflood information might be transferred from one site to another, with the caveat that this is a case where we had existing paleoflood data to test the transfer of paleoflood information—this is not the case at many sites, and transferring paleoflood information requires assumptions about the comparability of floods at the sites. The Cherry Creek analysis affirmed the result of an earlier study that showed that the generalized Pareto distribution was not a good distribution for estimating very low annual exceedance probabilities. The Escalante River analysis showed that adding paleoflood information might increase uncertainty for very low annual exceedance probabilities, compared to analysis with the systematic period of record information only, when the paleoflood peaks are of much larger magnitudes than the systematic record.

Scientific Investigations Report↗