USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Regional Environmental Change”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

955 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Concentration-discharge relations and transient metal loads reveal spatiotemporal variability in solute-generation mechanisms in a mine-affected watershed

Concentration-discharge (CQ) relations are commonly used to understand geochemical and hydrologic controls on the generation of solutes in watersheds. Despite the widespread application of CQ relations, this technique has been infrequently applied to acid mine drainage (AMD) sites, but the CQ framework may allow mechanistic understanding of remedial outcomes such as impoundment of water within underground mines. Results of CQ analyses and changes in metal loads in an AMD affected watershed in Colorado, USA indicate that dissolved loads increased at many individual locations following water impoundment within mine workings. Although increased loads were observed at most individual locations, these increases were offset by a large decrease in loading from the largest mine. A loading analysis that included data from an instream monitoring location showed a statistically significant decrease in Fe and Zn after bulkhead emplacement, indicating a net positive effect of bulkheads. Streams generally displayed dilution CQ patterns whereas mines and springs showed either flushing or chemostatic patterns prior to bulkheading, which transitioned to chemostatic patterns following bulkheading, indicating a transition from dynamic to equilibrium geochemical processes. Saturation indices for sulfide and secondary minerals indicated that mines and springs were near equilibrium for phases including schwertmannite, fluorite, and gypsum. Saturation indices vary through time for mines suggesting progressive leaching of sulfide minerals as the mass of available minerals in the mine workings decreases. Together, these diverse analyses provide an integrated understanding of the variability in solute generating processes in this watershed and may inform remediation plans for similarly affected sites by indicating the nature of mineralogic controls on water quality.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Quantifying methane emissions from a rich fen with uncrewed aircraft systems in boreal Alaska

Thawing of permafrost in northern latitudes is accelerating, potentially releasing substantial amounts of methane (CH 4 ) as forested permafrost plateaus transition into wetlands. This ecosystem shift alters the carbon exchange between the soil and atmosphere, influencing the permafrost-carbon feedback. Monitoring these changes may require measurement platforms operating across varied spatial and temporal scales. Recent advancements in small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) enable high resolution CH 4 flux quantification in remote, complex terrains; however, comparisons with established methods such as eddy covariance flux towers remain limited. We used a hexacopter sUAS to quantify CH 4 emissions from the Alaska Peatland Experiment, a wetland within the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest. Using an ensemble of methods to define the background CH 4 concentration, along with near surface emissions from soil chambers, helped constrain our flux estimates. The sUAS method yielded an average flux of 0.0077 ± 0.0019 mol s −1 CH 4 , within a factor of two concurrent tower-derived total source flux estimates (0.0036 ± 0.00042 mol s −1 CH 4 ). To assess spatial drivers of observed fluxes, we conducted a 2D footprint analysis and overlaid the results with high-resolution hyperspectral land cover classification, quantifying vegetative contributions within each footprint. This revealed higher fen representation in sUAS measurements (73.8%) than in tower footprints (58.8%), and lower tussock meadow representation (15.6% and 30.3%, respectively). These differences were consistent with known variation in vegetation-specific CH 4 emissions. Our results highlight that combining footprint modeling with land cover characterization can enhance interpretations of CH 4 fluxes and guide cross-platform comparisons.

JGR Atmospheres↗
USGS2024

Using a time-of-travel sampling approach to quantify per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) stream loading and source inputs in a mixed-source, urban catchment

Understanding per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) mass distribution in surface and groundwater systems can support source prioritization, load reduction, and water management. Thirteen sites within an urban catchment were sampled utilizing a time-of-travel sampling approach to minimize the influence of subdaily fluctuations in mass from PFAS point sources and to quantify PFAS and ancillary chemical loads from various PFAS sources. A larger increase in perfluoroalkyl sulfonate (PFSA) loads (8 to 11 μg/s, up to 618%) than in perfluoroalkyl carboxylate (PFCA) loads (no change to 3.4 μg/s, up to 122%) was observed at sites below tributaries influenced by military bases with known groundwater discharge. Point discharges from two sewage treatment plants (STPs) resulted in increases in PFCA and PFSA loads that were similar (6 and 10 μg/s respectively) below the first STP and greater for PFCA compared to PFSA loads (23 and 13 μg/s respectively) below the second STP. Overall, percent increases in total PFAS load ranged from 20 to 277% for military base inputs and 44 to 77% for STP inputs. A focus catchment that represents only 14% (76.9 km 2 ) of the drainage area at the most downstream site (544 km 2 ) accounted for about 70% of PFSA and 40% of PFCA loads observed at the most downstream site. Results show that by using a time-of-travel sampling approach in mixed, urban settings with several PFAS sources, it is possible to quantify stream loads from individual PFAS sources, thereby improving source attribution and providing actionable data for water-resource managers.

ACS ES&T Water↗
USGS2024

A decade of shaking in the Garden City: The dynamics of preparedness, perceptions, and beliefs in Canterbury, New Zealand, and implications for earthquake information

This study explored earthquake preparedness over time - before, during, and 10 years after the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Surveys of Canterbury residents were conducted in 2009, 2013 and again in 2021, using variables derived from Community Engagement Theory (CET). The surveys measured earthquake perceptions and beliefs, participation and engagement, and preparedness actions. Results were compared across the three samples. Findings indicate that perceptions and beliefs (e.g. risk perception, outcome expectancy beliefs), and types of preparedness actions taken (e.g. collection of survival items, structural preparedness, community and agency relationships), differed over time, depending on people’s experiences before, during, and after the CES. For example, during and after the CES people were more likely to believe that preparing provided a benefit to daily life, but less likely to think it could reduce property damage, perhaps due to people’s experiences of disruption and damage during the earthquakes. An understanding of such dynamics can assist with the provision and timing of risk and preparedness information. This study highlights the importance of providing applicable and actionable preparedness information, that is relevant to people’s experiences, throughout an earthquake sequence. Such information might evolve and change in focus over time depending on risks and needs. Focus could also be given to information that builds peoples beliefs and capacities to undertake preparedness in evolving situations. Understanding preparedness in the context of different experiences and timeframes is useful in helping update models such as the CET, where the dynamics of time might be better incorporated.

Canterbury↗
USGS2024

Developing international standards and guidelines for disseminating and validating simulated ground motions

We are leading an effort to develop international standards and guidelines for curating, disseminating, and validating simulated ground-motion data. This effort is organized as a working group within the Consortium of Organizations for Strong Motion Observation Systems (COSMOS). In 2022 we held online workshops on 7 and 8 June and 20 October. The first workshop focused on curating and disseminating simulated ground-motion data. The second workshop focused on validating simulated ground-motions for engineering applications. About 100 people participated in each of the workshops with strong representation from North America, Europe, and western Asia. In the coming year, we intend to form a technical committee to draft the international guidelines and standards while continuing to engage stakeholders from across the globe through online and in-person meetings. The key points from the workshops include: (1) Numerous groups are generating simulated earthquake ground motions and making them openly available; however there is very little coordination among groups to provide consistent interfaces for searching and retrieving data; (2) Standardizing interfaces for metadata and data access should consider agile approaches that can adapt to changing capabilities and user needs while building upon existing efforts; (3) A distributed architecture is preferred by most participants to allow institutions to host and manage their own data while broadcasting their holdings to a combined catalog; (4) Validation of ground-motion simulations applies to the entire workflow for simulating earthquake ground-motions, including the rupture model, seismic velocity model, and seismic wave propagation software; (5) Metrics to evaluate the validation are application dependent; more research is needed to tie structural response characteristics to ground-motion characteristics; and (6) Validation results should provide a clear, transparent, and quantitative assessment of the simulated ground motions.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2024

Precariously balanced rocks in northern New York and Vermont, U.S.A.: Ground-motion constraints and implications for fault sources

Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) and other fragile geologic features have the potential to constrain the maximum intensity of earthquake ground shaking over millennia. Such constraints may be particularly useful in the eastern United States (U.S.), where few earthquake‐source faults are reliably identified, and moderate earthquakes can be felt at great distances due to low seismic attenuation. We describe five PBRs in northern New York and Vermont—a region of elevated seismic hazard associated with historical seismicity. These boulders appear to be among the most fragile PBRs in the region, based on reports from hobbyists. The PBRs are glacial erratics, best evidenced by glacial striations on bedrock pedestals. The pedestals themselves are locally high knobs, often situated on regionally high topography; this setting limits soil development and indicates that any outwash deposits were likely ephemeral. As a result, PBR ages can be reliably established by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet, ∼15–13 ka. To quantify the fragility of the PBRs, we surveyed them with ground‐based light detection and ranging and calculated geometric parameters from the point clouds, field observations, and seismic responses. Preliminary validation of the 2023 time‐independent U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) shows that the existence of PBRs is generally consistent with the median site‐specific hazard curves. Only the Blue Ridge Road site suggests a modest reduction in hazard. To visualize the ensemble of data, we mapped the minimum permissible distance to potential source faults around each PBR site as a function of source magnitude by using the ground‐motion models from the 2023 NSHM. Viewed in this manner, our data are consistent with potential M ∼6.5 earthquake‐source faults in many parts of the Lake Champlain Valley and northern Adirondack Mountains. Our work illustrates a potential pathway for better constraining earthquake‐source faults in regions of cryptic faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2025

Waning greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. Federal lease coal production by the mid-21st century

This study presents estimates of future years (2024–2051) United States Federal lease coal production and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the combustion, transport, and mining of that fuel. Results from the coal production estimate indicate a decline in production from Federal leases; with known production of 240 million short tons (mtn) in 2023 and a projected decline to 34.0 mtn by 2051, which represents a reduction to 14.2% of the 2023 value. In parallel with this projection, total GHG emissions are estimated to decrease from 402.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO 2 eq.) in 2024 to 55.0 MMT CO 2 eq. in 2051, a decline to 13.7% of 2024 emissions estimates. The reductions in coal production and emissions are mainly the result of planned coal combustion power plant closures, with major projected closures in 2037 and 2048. However, GHG emissions estimates for future years can be uncertain as they rely heavily on coal production estimates from operators' public business plans and other publicly available resources. Forward looking plans of this type are subject to significant changes if economic and political factors deviate from current information. Results suggest that average GHG emissions over the time series breakout to 95% end point combustion, 3.7% transportation combustion emissions, and 1.3% fugitive emissions, although there is uncertainty associated with these figures. Uncertainty stemming from production projections, sector distributions, and emissions factors on the future emissions estimates increases with time, ranging from −28% to +48% within the 2024–2051 timeframe.

Alabama, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Utah, Wy↗
USGS2026

A diatom-based quantitative sea-ice proxy for the Bering and Chukchi seas

Sea ice affects Earth's climate system on both regional and global scales. Its incorporation into climate can be used to achieve more accurate predictions of future climate. However, instrumental records of sea-ice concentration do not extend earlier than 1978. In an effort to extend this record, we constructed a proxy using the generalized additive model based on relative abundances of five easy-to-identify diatom species found in sediment samples across the Bering and Chukchi seas. Here we present the first quantitative diatom-based sea-ice proxy developed for Beringia. The developed proxy has been applied to two sediment cores in the Bering Sea ranging from 0 to 25.7 ka (HLY0204 51JPC) and 369 to 430 ka (IODP Exp 323 Site U1345) and one in the Chukchi Sea ranging from 2.7 to 10 ka (HLY0204 24JPC). The obtained reconstructions of sea-ice concentrations are similar, but not identical to previously published qualitative and nearby records based on other proxies. Because our results are quantitative, they can be incorporated into regional climate models. The proxy is publicly available as an R Shiny application (app) and can be applied to any diatom count from marine sediments in the region.

Bering Sea, Chukchi Sea↗
USGS2025

The 3D National Topography Model Call for Action—Part 2: The Next Generation 3D Elevation Program

The three-dimensional (3D) National Topography Model initiative to integrate elevation and hydrography data includes the next generation of hydrography data from the 3D Hydrography Program and the next generation of elevation data from the 3D Elevation Program (3DEP). The first-ever collection of light detection and ranging (lidar) data for the nation (IfSAR for Alaska) provides a critical baseline reference, and the addition of multiple repeat elevation mapping projects as part of the next generation of 3DEP would substantially expand analysis capabilities. As the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is closing in on our goal of complete coverage with 3DEP data available or in progress for 98.3 percent of the Nation at the end of fiscal year 2024, the USGS is already transitioning to the next generation of 3DEP. Based on the 3D Nation Study results and input from a broad range of stakeholders, the USGS National Geospatial Program has finalized a new design for 3DEP that provides increased lidar quality levels and refresh rates. The new program is designed with more flexibility to meet changing user needs and take advantage of improvements in mapping technologies. The program will aim to expand the level of interagency coordination for topobathymetric lidar acquisition for inland rivers. The next generation of 3DEP will also aim to emphasize research, including advancing program design, products, and services and engaging and leveraging the evolving 3D industry. Research goals also include becoming more flexible in meeting user needs and taking advantage of evolving remote-sensing technologies. The program also plans to move from focusing on producing standard products to producing a concept of a 3D Nation Ecosystem with a variety of inputs, products, and services.

Circular↗
USGS2025

Projecting stream water quality using Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS): An example with drought conditions in the Delaware River Basin

Future water availability depends on understanding the responses of constituent concentrations to hydrologic change. Projecting future water quality remains a methodological challenge, particularly when using discrete observations with limited temporal resolution. This study introduces Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season for Projection (WRTDS-P), a novel, computationally efficient method that enables the projection of daily stream water quality under varying hydrologic conditions using commonly available discrete monitoring data. WRTDS-P model performance was validated using 39 sites in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and four key constituents: specific conductance (SC), nitrate (NO 3 − ), magnesium (Mg 2+ ) and calcium (Ca 2+ ). Projections were tested against holdout data from the final 1 to 5 years of each time series, demonstrating robust predictive capability, with median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.67 for SC, 0.56 for NO 3 − , 0.65 for Ca 2+ , and 0.79 for Mg 2+ . Model uncertainty was correlated with indicators of hydrologic or geochemical mass-sinks, such as groundwater storage and adsorption in wetland soils. Drought scenario analyses for SC used ranges of reduced discharge including flows from the 1965 drought of record. Scenarios predicted widespread increases of SC, especially in southern DRB streams where baseline SC levels are already elevated. Fractional increases of SC were more uniformly distributed, indicating potential risk to sensitive ecosystems. Notably, drought-induced SC increases were positively correlated with interannual SC trends, indicating that hydrologic extremes could exacerbate ongoing salinization. This work provides a transferable and interpretable framework for projecting future water quality and assessing hydrologic risk to water resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2025

Four-band image mosaic of the Colorado River Corridor downstream of Glen Canyon Dam in Arizona, derived from the May 2021 airborne image acquisition

In May 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center acquired airborne multispectral high-resolution data for the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The image data, which consist of four spectral bands (red, band 1; green, band 2; blue, band 3; and near infrared, band 4) with a ground resolution of 20 centimeters, are available as 16-bit unsigned-integer GeoTIFF files in Sankey and others (2024) (available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/P9BBGN6G ). The image files are projected in the State Plane Coordinate System, using the central Arizona zone (202) with the North American Datum of 1983 National Adjustment of 2011. The assessed spatial accuracy for these data is based on 47 ground-control points that were independent from the ground-control points used by the contractor for aerotriangulation and is reported at the 95-percent confidence level as 0.514 meter (m) and a root mean square error of 0.297 m. The intended uses of this dataset are primarily in support of scientific research and monitoring applications. Examples of these applications include high-resolution spatial and temporal change detection of the river channel, geomorphic landforms, riparian vegetation, and backwater and nearshore habitat, as well as other ecosystem-wide mapping. These imagery data also serve as reference material for field science mission planning, as base data for field data collection including community science activities, and as a highly detailed guide for technical boat operation during science activities such as reconnaissance for nighttime missions and navigating rapids during low flows.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2026

Testing characteristic magnitude distributions in modern PSHA models

The characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis predicts a higher rate of large earthquakes than a Gutenberg–Richter extrapolation of the small‐earthquake rate would imply. Characteristic magnitude distributions have been commonly applied to faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and in modern models they can emerge from the way short‐term seismicity constraints are combined with long‐term geologic and geodetic constraints. We test the characteristic magnitude distribution hypothesis by comparing the fault‐based magnitude distributions from the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23) in the Western United States with observed seismicity over the past 93 yr. We find that observed magnitude distributions fall outside the model‐predicted confidence bounds in regions where NSHM23 produces characteristic magnitude distributions: in these regions, the model predicts higher rates of large earthquakes than are observed. An analysis of the earlier California model (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3) also reveals discrepancies between the modeled and observed magnitude distributions. In addition, we find that observed magnitude distributions near modeled faults are not significantly different from those in background regions. These results challenge the prevalence of characteristic magnitude distributions in fault‐based seismic hazard models and call for a reassessment of how disparate data sets are integrated in PSHA.

western United States↗
USGS2026

Ground-motion simulations for the 2024 Mw 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey, earthquake

Ground-motion simulations of notable earthquakes in the central and eastern United States are limited and typically assume one-dimensional (1D) Earth structure. In this study, we use a three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model to better constrain the depth and focal mechanism of the April 5th, 2024, moment magnitude 4.8 Tewksbury earthquake and investigate the spatial variability of earthquake ground motions and the effects of nearby sedimentary basins. We perform earthquake ground-motion simulations up to 0.5 Hz using the 3D spectral-element wave-propagation solver SPECFEM3D over a region 280-km wide by 260-km long by 77-km deep. Topography and subsurface geophysical structure are assigned using the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 200 m/s. We use earthquake time series from 13 broadband seismic stations in the region that have a uniform azimuthal distribution and epicentral distances ranging from 76 to 131 km to compare with synthetics and explore the effects of 1D versus 3D seismic structure on focal mechanism and depth solutions. Ground-motion intensity metrics are also presented relative to the NGA-East ground-motion models (GMMs) currently used in seismic hazard assessments for the region. We find that the 3D model, which reveals a wide spatial variability of period-dependent ground motions, yields better predictions of earthquake ground motions relative to the 1D model and the NGA-East ergodic ground-motion model, with 76 percent reduction of residual variance in observed ground motions averaged over 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-second periods. Use of the 3D model to solve for a focal mechanism yields a shallower focal depth at 4 km and a shallower east-dipping focal plane relative to the U.S. Geological Survey regional moment tensor and Global Centroid Moment Tensor. Our study demonstrates that use of 3D seismic velocity models can improve estimates of earthquake focal mechanisms, ground motions, and seismic hazard.

New Jersey↗
USGS2026

Groundwater drought in the United States: Spatial and temporal variability

Many communities and ecosystems in the United States that are dependent on groundwater are potentially adversely affected by groundwater drought. We computed yearly groundwater-drought metrics and mean groundwater levels at well locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), using data from wells and remotely sensed and modeled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Drought Monitor Data Assimilation (GRACE-DADM). We also modeled the probability of low or high human impact at each well location. The spatial distribution of groundwater-drought duration and severity from 2001 to 2020 for 1,510 wells shows longer maximum duration and higher maximum severity events in drier regions like the Southwest than in wetter regions like the Northeast. Based on 613 wells in CONUS from 1981 to 2020, there are many significant decreases in drought duration and severity in the Northeast and many significant increases in annual-mean groundwater levels. In contrast, there are many significant increases in drought metrics and decreases in mean water levels in parts of the Southeast. There are major differences in trends from 2001 to 2020 between well-based and GRACE-DADM-based groundwater metrics in some CONUS regions and a very low correlation between trends at individual locations across CONUS. A potential reason for this disparity is the low GRACE-DADM resolution (∼12 km) and the potential for a large amount of groundwater variation at the local scale. Also, GRACE-DADM represents shallow, unconfined aquifers which may not match the screened interval of the monitoring wells we evaluated. Large spatial gaps in long-term, high frequency, and quality-assured groundwater-well monitoring data present a challenge for understanding groundwater-drought variability across CONUS. Remote sensing tools such as GRACE can help but cannot fully replace well monitoring, as highlighted by our study results. Substantially more long-term monitoring wells would more accurately represent groundwater-drought trends and spatial variability across CONUS, particularly in western regions.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2026

On-demand global Landsat evapotranspiration product: Development, evaluation, and dissemination

Global actual evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the essential climate variables needed to understand and manage the relationships among food, energy, and water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center launched a provisional ET product in 2020, offering on-demand, field-scale global coverage derived from Landsat data through the EROS Science Processing Architecture (ESPA) platform. The ESPA interface provides ET data for cloud-free Landsat overpasses starting in 1982 with Landsat 4 through the current Landsat 9. The ET data are delivered as a Provisional Level-3 Science product created using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model. Landsat surface temperature and reference ET are the main model drivers along with vegetation index and net radiation for model parameterization. A large volume of Landsat-based ET orders (e.g., over 1,200,000 images from June 2020 through December 2025) around the world indicate increasing awareness and application of the ET data. The ESPA platform enables land and water resource managers and researchers to access a first-order ET product without requiring advanced knowledge of remote sensing technology or evapotranspiration modeling. We present the methodology and workflow of the on-demand Landsat ET product and its performance evaluations over diverse hydro-climatic settings. The product can help estimate field-scale consumptive water use and thus quickly and consistently assess historical water use, allocation, and budget to inform water management under changing environments. Future ET data aggregated to monthly and seasonal time scales are expected to enhance integration with decision-making tools and procedures.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS1996

Techniques to estimate generalized skew coefficients of annual peak streamflow for natural basins in Texas

This report presents two techniques to estimate generalized skew coefficients used for log-Pearson Type III peak-streamflow frequency analysis of natural basins in Texas. A natural basin has less than 10 percent impervious cover, and less than 10 percent of its drainage area is controlled by reservoirs. The estimation of generalized skew coefficients is based on annual peak and historical peak streamflow for all U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations having at least 20 years of annual peak-streamflow record from natural basins in Texas. Station skew coefficients calculated for each of 255 Texas stations were used to estimate generalized skew coefficients for Texas. One technique to estimate generalized skew coefficients involved the use of regression equations developed for each of eight regions in Texas, and the other involved development of a statewide map of generalized skew coefficients. The weighted mean of the weighted mean standard errors of the regression equations for the eight regions is 0.36 log 10 skew units, and the weighted mean standard error of the map is 0.35 log 10 skew units. The technique based on the map is preferred for estimating generalized skew coefficients because of its smooth transition from one region of the State to another.

Texas↗
USGS2023

Advancing subsurface investigations beyond the borehole with passive seismic horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and electromagnetic geophysical methods at transportation infrastructure sites in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Transportation (NHDOT), surveyed transportation infrastructure sites using rapidly deployable geophysical methods to assess benefits added to a comprehensive site characterization with traditional geotechnical techniques. Horizontal-to-vertical spectral-ratio (HVSR) passive-seismic and electromagnetic-induction (EMI) methods were applied at 4 sites including a roadway-stream crossing, roadway-bridge rail-trail crossing, commuter-parking expansion, and a railroad-adjacent river-cutbank slope-failure site. Additionally, ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) was used at the slope-failure site. Typically, subsurface geotechnical properties are determined from boring data; however, borings are often spaced hundreds of feet apart, potentially missing important spatial variability between boreholes. Geotechnical site characterization including geophysical surveys helped provide a more accurate characterization by using continuous or near continuous profiling. Three-component ambient noise measured with HVSR methods were used to determine resonance frequency and estimate sediment thickness. The method works when there is a strong shear-wave acoustic impedance contrast (> 2:1) between sediment and bedrock. Sediment thickness estimates from HVSR measurements were combined with boring data to make detailed maps of the bedrock surface altitude. The bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface was indirectly measured with EMI methods and was used to identify lithologic variations, shallow bedrock, and conductive groundwater. Ground penetrating radar, which transmits pulses of electromagnetic energy into the subsurface and records the amplitude and timing of reflected signals, was used to identify bedding and changes in lithology or water content. By combining geophysical and boring data analyses, transportation projects produced more spatially comprehensive representations of geotechnical subsurface conditions than would be determined using conventional borings alone.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2025

Capturing the uncertainty of seismicity observations in earthquake rate estimates: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

The rate of earthquakes in a region is a fundamental input to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We present a Monte Carlo method for computing that rate from seismicity catalogs while including a range of data and analysis uncertainties. This method is applied to regions for which the b value is assumed to be spatially invariant. Each region is broken down into epochs for which each epoch is estimated to have a uniform magnitude of completeness ( ⁠⁠ M c ). The distribution of earthquake rates for M ≥ M c is determined for each epoch by considering the Poisson likelihood of rates given the number of observed earthquakes with M ≥ M c ⁠ . We use a Monte Carlo process to include the uncertainty in b , ⁠ M c , and individual event magnitudes. The result for each epoch is the joint distribution of the Poisson rate of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than the minimum value used to calculate hazard ( ⁠⁠ M 1 ) and the Gutenberg–Richter b values, which control the extrapolation to other magnitudes. The rate for each region is either the duration‐weighted average over the epochs or, to better capture temporal variations, we also consider mixture models. The mixture models also provide an avenue to allow temporal variations in b values. To implement this joint distribution in a logic tree, we use the mean and 95% confidence branches, each of which is parameterized with an M ≥ M 1 rate and b value. We explore different ways of defining those branches, as well as non‐Gutenberg–Richter branches, and their impact on hazard estimates. The mean hazard, but not the fractiles, is robust with respect to these choices. To illustrate these new methods, we use synthetic data and catalogs from recent U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Models for the Central and Eastern United States and for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

central and eastern United States, Puerto Rico, U.↗