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USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2025

Comparison of hydrologic data and water budgets between 2003–08 and 2018–23 for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, south-central Oklahoma

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer is divided spatially into three parts (eastern, central, and western). The largest groundwater withdrawals are from the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, which provides water to approximately 39,000 people in Ada and Sulphur, Oklahoma, and surrounding areas. The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, including the eastern part, is designated a sole source aquifer for its service area. Based primarily on data collected between 2003 and 2008, a series of comprehensive hydrologic studies of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer was published to provide the information necessary to perform groundwater-flow model simulations so that the Oklahoma Water Resources Board could determine how much water could be withdrawn from the aquifer while maintaining flow to springs and streams. As part of the Phase 1 studies, an aquifer water budget was developed from a numerical model for the period 2003–08. For this report, Phase 1 refers to the 2003–08 data collection period, although for some of the analyses, data collected prior to 2003 were used to inform model development work. Allocation of water from this aquifer was then established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board in 2013. Additional well-spacing rules were also established by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board for sensitive sole source groundwater basins. To determine how the water budget for the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer has changed over time, recently collected hydrologic data (2018–23) were compared to data collected during 2003–08. The analysis of changes in the aquifer water budget from 2003–08 to 2018–23 could help resource managers better understand changes in the overall balance of water in storage and the potential effects on streamflow, changes in groundwater levels, and the effects of different water uses in the aquifer area on available water in the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer and streams overlying the eastern part of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)

Introduction This report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can substantially improve the Nation’s resilience after future earthquakes. NEHRP is the Federal Government’s coordinated nationwide program to reduce risks to life and property from earthquakes. The Plan describes the activation and coordination of the four designated NEHRP Agencies in the Federal Government: Federal Emergency Management Agency, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. National Science Foundation, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The Plan also describes coordination between NEHRP Agencies and other organizations that may participate in pre-event and post-earthquake investigations, including non-NEHRP Federal agencies; State, regional, local, Tribal, and territorial agencies; domestic nongovernmental organizations; academic institutions and affiliated organizations; private companies; foreign governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations; and international organizations. The Plan delineates the coordination of NEHRP post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations to document the direct, indirect, and cascading physical and societal impacts from fault rupture and ground shaking hazards and from secondary hazards such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunamis. In addition, the Plan identifies pre-event activities necessary to ensure that post-earthquake investigations are executed effectively. The USGS is the lead NEHRP Agency for activating and coordinating NEHRP post-earthquake investigations and for implementing this Plan. The USGS also leads coordination of the NEHRP Agencies in completing the pre-event activities identified in the Plan. The Plan has new information and supersedes USGS Circular 1242, “The Plan to Coordinate NEHRP Post-Earthquake Investigations,” which was published in 2003. This second-generation Plan was developed with the assistance of the Applied Technology Council (ATC) of Redwood City, California, under USGS contract 140G0121P0309, ATC-155. A 17-member Project Review Panel provided guidance on plan development, and input was solicited from subject matter experts representing key stakeholder groups and from participants at a public workshop.

Circular↗
USGS2024

Are the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of earthquakes and microtremors the same?

We consider the similarities and differences between earthquake and microtremor horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratios (eHVSR and mHVSR, respectively) using a dataset of 161 sites in southern California. Quantitative comparisons are made in terms of the eHVSR and mHVSR lognormal median curves, as well as the frequencies and amplitudes associated with the fundamental‐ and higher‐mode resonances where present. The results show only 58% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of their median curve and only 25% of the eHVSR–mHVSR pairs agree in terms of shared resonances, which increases to 68% if flat HVSRs are considered equivalent. Furthermore, while the shared resonances match very well in terms of frequency (root mean square error, RMSE, <0.11 Hz), the amplitudes of those resonances do not agree (RMSE >1.6). These findings demonstrate that while eHVSR and mHVSR agree at some sites, they are not equivalent at all sites. To investigate if the agreement between eHVSR and mHVSR could be related to features of the microtremor data, earthquake recordings, and/or the site conditions, three machine learning (ML) models at varying levels of interpretability are presented. The ML models—which include multivariate logistic regression, gradient‐boosted trees, and support vector machines—show only partial success at using site‐specific data to predict whether eHVSR and mHVSR will likely agree in terms of their median curve (accuracy of 78%) and number of resonances (accuracy of 84%). Therefore, we conclude that while eHVSR and mHVSR can be quite similar in terms of resonant frequencies at some sites, they are not identical at all sites. Furthermore, preliminary evidence shows that the agreement of eHVSR and mHVSR can be predicted a priori given features of the microtremor measurements, earthquake recordings, and site conditions, although a larger dataset will be necessary for developing a robust predictive model.

California↗
USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis, also called peak-flow frequency or flood-flow frequency analysis, is essential to water resources management applications including critical structure design and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for doing flood-frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C is that for drainage basins without major hydrologic alterations, statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows (peak flows) are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant. The stationarity assumption has been widely accepted within the flood-frequency community; however, a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change has caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumption. This work is part of that reexamination. The stationarity assumption is a concern because flood-frequency analyses that do not incorporate observed trends and abrupt changes may result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance for incorporating nonstationarities when estimating floods, and it describes a need for studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. In response to this need and a history of concern regarding nonstationarity peak flows in the region, this study was done to assess potential nonstationarity in peak flows in the north-central United States. This report summarizes the methods used to detect hydroclimatic changes in peak-flow data in the study region. Four periods were selected for analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data. The periods are (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. The starting point for these analyses was the initial data analysis of peak flow described in Bulletin 17C, which includes plotting the peak flow and checking for autocorrelation, monotonic trends, and changes points. Analyses were added to examine additional features in the data. Results are provided in a U.S. Geological Survey data release. The study limitations are documented for users of the results.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Perchlorate, metals, organic compounds, and lead isotopes in groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soil within and near the Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29), Middleton, Wisconsin, 2022

The Middleton Municipal Airport–Morey Field (C29) is in the City of Middleton and adjacent to the towns of Middleton and Springfield, Wisconsin. Nearby homes in the towns rely on private drinking water wells, and residents are concerned about the potential contamination of groundwater and surface water by airport activities, including flights by small aircraft that use leaded aviation fuel and a fireworks display in July 2021. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Town of Middleton, completed a study in 2022 to characterize the occurrence and sources of perchlorate, metals (including lead), and organic compounds in samples of groundwater, surface water, shallow groundwater, and soils within and near the airport. Lead isotopes were also measured to determine sources of lead by comparing samples to environmental references. Magnitudes of concentrations from samples of water and soil collected in 2022, and their spatial patterns across site locations, indicate the fireworks display in July 2021 was a likely source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area. The highest perchlorate concentration was measured in surface water at the southeastern corner of the airport near the fireworks launch site; the highest concentrations of fireworks-associated metals were measured in shallow groundwater near the same location. Fireworks were not the only possible source of perchlorate and metals in the airport study area because both were also detected upgradient and away from the fireworks launch site. Ratios of lead isotopes indicate that lead measured in water and soil within the airport study area was primarily sourced from background atmospheric lead deposition or Wisconsin galena lead ore. However, two groundwater samples (one upgradient and one downgradient from the airport; both with concentrations less than 1 microgram per liter) had isotopic signatures matching leaded aviation fuel sold at the airport.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Estimation of reservoir storage capacity and geomorphic change detection analysis from a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake, Rockdale County, Georgia

Rockdale County Department of Water Resources has a directive to update estimates of the reservoir storage capacity of Randy Poynter Lake, located in northern Georgia, and to assess recent sedimentation and associated storage capacity loss. In 2022, the U.S. Geological Survey completed a multibeam bathymetric survey of Randy Poynter Lake to update storage capacity estimates and to quantify storage capacity change since the first multibeam bathymetric survey in 2012 in consideration of estimated errors inherent to bathymetric surveys. Data from the 2022 survey were used to generate contours of the reservoir as well as compute storage capacity at regular increments of water-surface elevation. Storage capacity comparisons between 2012 and 2022 at Randy Poynter Lake show minimal changes that are within the estimated uncertainties, with consistent or slightly increased storage capacities observed at most water-surface elevations and reductions observed at the remaining few elevations. Comparison of the multibeam bathymetric data collected in 2012 with data collected in 2022 further allowed for a formal geomorphic change detection analysis to map, quantify, and infer causation of morphological change over time with respect to a level of detectable change. The volume change in Randy Poynter Lake for the decade between 2012 and 2022 was slightly net-depositional and within the estimated uncertainty. The spatial distribution of sediment deposition was primarily concentrated in the northern portion of the lake, where the principal tributary flows into Randy Poynter Lake. The results of the geomorphic change analysis were used to further understand the future implications to storage capacity change. Despite the challenges of confirming systematic biases because of uncertainties exceeding the observed changes, insights from the study help predict long-term reservoir sediment accumulation, indicating a reservoir half-life extending about 650 years from 2022 on the basis of the current sediment yield estimates.

Georgia↗
USGS2025

Combining multisite tsunami and deformation modeling to constrain slip distributions for the 1700 C.E. Cascadia earthquake

A major earthquake ruptured the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) on 26 January 1700. Key paleoseismic evidence associated with this event include tsunami deposits, stratigraphic evidence of coastal coseismic subsidence, written Japanese records of a tsunami unaccompanied by earthquake shaking, and margin‐wide turbidites found offshore and in lacustrine environments. Despite this wealth of independent clues, important details about this event remain unresolved. Dating uncertainties do not conclusively establish whether the proxies are from one earthquake or a sequence of them, and we have limited knowledge of the likely slip distributions of the event or events. Here, we use a catalog of 37,500 candidate synthetic ruptures between M w 7.8 and 9.2 and simulate their resulting coseismic deformation and tsunami inundation. Each model is then compared against estimated Japan tsunami arrivals, regional coastal subsidence records, and local paleotsunami deposits mapped at six different coastal marshes and one coastal lake along the CSZ. We find that seven full‐margin ruptures with a median magnitude of M w 9.1 satisfy all three constraints. We favor one M w 9.11 model that best matches all site paleoseismic observations and suggests that the Cascadia megathrust slipped up to ∼30 m and must have shallow geodetic coupling. We also find that some sequences composed of three or four ruptures can still satisfy the observations, yet no sequences of two ruptures can. Sequences are differentiated into three groups based on whether they contain a mainshock rupture located in the south (>44° N) or further north. All sequences contain unruptured portions of the megathrust and most contain mainshocks with peak slip above 40 m. The fit of the geologic evidence from sequences is poor in comparison to single‐event models. Therefore, sequences are generally less favored compared to full‐margin events.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2024

Precariously balanced rocks in northern New York and Vermont, U.S.A.: Ground-motion constraints and implications for fault sources

Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) and other fragile geologic features have the potential to constrain the maximum intensity of earthquake ground shaking over millennia. Such constraints may be particularly useful in the eastern United States (U.S.), where few earthquake‐source faults are reliably identified, and moderate earthquakes can be felt at great distances due to low seismic attenuation. We describe five PBRs in northern New York and Vermont—a region of elevated seismic hazard associated with historical seismicity. These boulders appear to be among the most fragile PBRs in the region, based on reports from hobbyists. The PBRs are glacial erratics, best evidenced by glacial striations on bedrock pedestals. The pedestals themselves are locally high knobs, often situated on regionally high topography; this setting limits soil development and indicates that any outwash deposits were likely ephemeral. As a result, PBR ages can be reliably established by the retreat of the last continental ice sheet, ∼15–13 ka. To quantify the fragility of the PBRs, we surveyed them with ground‐based light detection and ranging and calculated geometric parameters from the point clouds, field observations, and seismic responses. Preliminary validation of the 2023 time‐independent U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) shows that the existence of PBRs is generally consistent with the median site‐specific hazard curves. Only the Blue Ridge Road site suggests a modest reduction in hazard. To visualize the ensemble of data, we mapped the minimum permissible distance to potential source faults around each PBR site as a function of source magnitude by using the ground‐motion models from the 2023 NSHM. Viewed in this manner, our data are consistent with potential M ∼6.5 earthquake‐source faults in many parts of the Lake Champlain Valley and northern Adirondack Mountains. Our work illustrates a potential pathway for better constraining earthquake‐source faults in regions of cryptic faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 5 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 5, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has an area of 211 km 2 and has water depths that range from 23 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to 105 m in the Stellwagen Basin. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates on the crest and western flank of the south-central part of Stellwagen Bank and in Stellwagen Basin to the west. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 729 stations were analyzed, including 620 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 5 show the distribution of 20 substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as mobile and rippled sand, immobile sand, sand that partially veneers gravel, boulder ridges, and mud. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 5. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize the various substrates, and to support seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2025

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 5

Many ungulates migrate between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. In 2018, the U.S. Department of the Interior established Secretarial Order 3362, which provided Federal support to expand existing research efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations by enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western United States. In response to the order, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) created the Corridor Mapping Team, which is a collaboration among 11 State agencies, regional and Federal partners, and an expanding number of Tribal wildlife agencies. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States and publishes them in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report details migrations and seasonal ranges from 36 additional herds and includes 2 herd updates detailed in previous reports. The Corridor Mapping Team has mapped the migrations and seasonal ranges of 218 unique herds for the report series, including this report. The report series serves as a map-based inventory of the ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policymakers, and conservation practitioners. Building on the previous report volumes in the series, volume 5 additionally describes some of the local and national initiatives that are incorporating the products, tools, and information from this growing USGS report series.

Navajo Nation↗
USGS1996

Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows in Maryland

A convenient and reliable technique for estimating flood magnitudes is required for effective flood-plain management and for the efficient design of bridges, culverts, embankments, and flood-protection structures. Methods are presented for estimating peak-flow magnitudes of selected frequencies, ranging from 2 to 500 years, for all nontidal drainage basins in Maryland. The methods were developed by generalized least-squares regression techniques using data from 219 gaged basins in and near Maryland. The State is divided into five hydrologic regions: the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, the Piedmont region, the Western Coastal Plain region, and the Eastern Coastal Plain region. These regions correspond to the physiographic provinces of the State, with the exceptions that (1) the Coastal Plain Province is divided into two hydrologic regions, and (2) there is no distinct hydrologic region corresponding to the Valley and Ridge Province as it is divided into its constituent Allegheny Ridges and Great Valley subdivisions. Sets of equations for calculating peak discharges based on physical basin characteristics are provided for each of the regions. Based on the peak-flow equations, methods for estimating peak flows are presented for ungaged and gaged streams in Maryland. The methods and equations are supported by generalized least-squares analysis of basin and flood-frequency characteristics data from 219 drainage basins in and near Maryland. estimates for each of the five regions are calculated using combinations of the fol-lowing basin characteristics: drainage area, forest cover, basin relief, carbonate rock coverage, storage, and runoff-curve number. Drainage area contributes to the estimate in all five study regions. Carbonate rock coverage is used only in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region. Storage and runoff-curve number are used solely in the Eastern Coastal Plain region. All other basin characteristics are used in two or more regions. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations range from 19 to 31 percent in the Appalachian Plateaus and Allegheny Ridges region, 34 to 47 percent in the Blue Ridge and Great Valley region, 33 to 48 percent in the Piedmont region, 45 to 64 percent in the Western Coastal Plain region, and 36 to 42 percent in the Eastern Coastal Plain region.

Maryland↗
USGS2025

Near-surface geophysics: Environmental applications

The field of geophysics encompasses a broad and diverse compilation of methodologies that employs principles of physics to characterize properties of earth materials within the subsurface. While geophysical methods have a long history in resource exploration and studies of Earth’s interior, the subdiscipline of “near-surface geophysics” has evolved in recent decades for examination of the shallow, near-surface environment for a range of purposes ranging from archaeological or forensic investigations to assessment of geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and geochemical properties and processes. “Environmental geophysics” are near-surface geophysical studies and methods that focus on understanding natural systems (e.g., watershed hydrology, groundwater–surface water connections, biophysical processes) as well as research pertaining to anthropogenic impacts and land management, (e.g., contamination and remediation, saltwater intrusion, agricultural practices). This field can be further subdivided into subdisciplines focused on specific topics and applications, such as water resources and hydrology (hydrogeophysics) or biologic and microbial processes (biogeophysics). Studies in environmental geophysics span a range of scales, from pore-scale laboratory tests to watershed-scale or regional field experiments. Methods vary by the nature of physics employed, the specific measurement acquired, and how that data is ultimately processed and analyzed to produce interpretable results. There exists further diversity in the acquisition logistics, geometry, and timing of data collection. Geophysical data can be collected in boreholes (one-dimensional, 1-D, vertical profiles), along survey lines (two-dimensional, 2-D, cross-sections), or in dense sensor arrays or gridded profiles (three-dimensional, 3-D, models). Regarding the temporal aspect, studies can conduct one-time geophysical surveys to obtain detailed imaging of subsurface structure or use timelapse and continuous monitoring to investigate variations in subsurface properties over time. The cumulation of all possible permutations of these factors (method, acquisition geometry, survey design, and target application) results in an immense diversity among environmental geophysical studies. Nevertheless, this field remains unified in the pursuit of understanding natural and human-impacted near-surface environments through geophysical investigations. Here we highlight some key references within environmental geophysics. Resources on geophysical theory, acquisition logistics, processing and inversion workflows, and example case studies are categorized into the most common geophysical classes within Geophysical Methods. Lastly, example references for the dominant types of applications in environmental geophysical studies are catalogued in Environmental Applications.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Multi-scale geophysical mapping of the brine and bedrock surfaces along the Dolores River, Paradox Valley, Colorado, December 2023

Total dissolved solids derived from salt dome–sourced brine in the underlying alluvial aquifer substantially increase with distance in the reach of the Dolores River that passes through Paradox Valley in southwestern Colorado. The area has been the site of salinity control operations since the 1990s to reduce salt loading to the downstream Colorado River. Previous airborne and ground/water-based electromagnetic (EM) geophysical data have successfully mapped the top of the brine surface, albeit with relatively coarse near-surface resolution and limited spatial coverage. This present December 2023 study used ground-based high-resolution EM and passive seismic (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, HVSR) tools to map in detail the depth and thickness of the brine zone in the alluvial aquifer (top of the brine down to bedrock contact) in areas immediately surrounding the Dolores River where previous airborne EM (AEM) results indicated brine within 10 m of land surface. Results indicate the deepest bedrock is generally associated with the shallowest brine and local depressions in the collapse breccia (caprock to the Paradox Formation salt) may facilitate vertical migration of brine into the alluvial aquifer. Additionally, the ground-based EM mapping corroborated general patterns in depth to brine that were observed in previous AEM results while also revealing additional detail, including suspected focused brine discharge zones to the Dolores River. A river-based survey wherein EM data, channel depth and river water–specific conductance information were collected augmented these findings and indicated specific areas on both the western and eastern sides of the river where focused brine discharge may occur. This study comprises a large-scale, ground- and water-based geophysical mapping effort, including hundreds of HVSR soundings and 100s of kilometres of EM data, which were successfully translated into digital brine and bedrock surfaces that could be incorporated into groundwater modelling efforts, future well siting or other decision-making.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Isotopic evaluation of the National Water Model reveals missing agricultural irrigation contributions to streamflow across the western United States

The National Water Model (NWM) provides critical analyses and projections of streamflow that support water management decisions. However, the NWM performs poorly in lower-elevation rivers of the western United States (US). The accuracy of the NWM depends on the fidelity of the model inputs and the representation and calibration of model processes and water sources. To evaluate the NWM performance in the western US, we compared observations of river water isotope ratios ( 18 O / "> 16 O and 2 H / "> 1 H expressed in δ notation) to NWM-flux-estimated (model) river reach isotope ratios. The modeled estimates were calculated from long-term (2000–2019) mean summer (June, July, and August) NWM hydrologic fluxes and gridded isotope ratios using a mass balance approach. The observational dataset comprised 4503 in-stream water isotope observations in 877 reaches across 5 basins. A simple regression between observed and modeled isotope ratios explained 57.9 % ( δ 18 O) and 67.1 % ( δ 2 H) of variance, although observations were 0.5 ‰ ( δ 18 O) and 4.8 ‰ ( δ 2 H) higher, on average, than mass balance estimates. The unexplained variance suggest that the NWM does not include all relevant water fluxes to rivers. To infer possible missing water fluxes, we evaluated patterns in observation–model differences using δ 18 O diff ( δ 18 O obs − δ 18 O mod ) and d diff ( &#x3B4; 2 H diff - 8 &#x22C5; &#x3B4; 18 O diff "> ). We detected evidence of evaporation in observations but not model estimates (negative d diff and positive δ 18 O diff ) at lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid sites. The catchment actual-evaporation-to-precipitation ratio, the fraction of streamflow estimated to be derived from agricultural irrigation, and whether a site was reservoir-affected were all significant predictors of d diff in a linear mixed-effects model, with up to 15.2 % of variance explained by fixed effects. This finding is supported by seasonal patterns, groundwater levels, and isotope ratios, and it suggests the importance of including irrigation return flows to rivers, especially in lower-elevation, higher-stream-order, arid rivers of the western US.

Hydrology and Earth Systems Science↗
USGS2024

Analysis of factors affecting plume remediation in a sole-source aquifer system, southeastern Nassau County, New York

Several plumes of dissolved, chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethylene, have been identified in a sole-source aquifer near the former Northrop Grumman Bethpage Facility and Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant sites in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Past investigations have documented that the groundwater contamination originated from this industrial area and now extends to the south, in the direction of groundwater flow. The intermixed plumes are commonly referred to as the “Navy Grumman groundwater plume.” Detailed groundwater-flow modeling was needed for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to evaluate design options necessary for the construction, operation, optimization, maintenance, and monitoring of a groundwater extraction and treatment cleanup plan selected in a December 2019 Amended Record of Decision by the NYSDEC to comprehensively address these plumes. Consequently, the NYSDEC began a cooperative study with the U.S. Geological Survey in 2020 to better understand the local hydrogeologic framework using two independent approaches to characterize aquifer heterogeneity and update an existing regional groundwater-flow model to provide transient boundary conditions for new inset groundwater-flow models of the plume area. We developed these detailed inset models for the two independent aquifer characterizations using history-matching techniques coupled with a novel approach to risk-based management optimization of the remedial design. We also used the updated regional model to assess this optimized groundwater extraction and treatment design for potential saltwater intrusion. The ensembles of parameters resulting from history matching provided a platform with which to evaluate capture by water-supply and remedial wells using particle-tracking techniques. Using the ensemble to select a risk stance, we performed multiobjective optimization to identify various configurations of remedial pumping that are consistent with external constraints and that favor potentially competing objectives. Multiple solutions provide tradeoffs that NYSDEC can consider. In general, pumping redistribution may help to prevent further contamination migration downgradient. These and other study results are intended to support decisions for the remedial design focused on the local area encompassing the full extent of the Navy Grumman groundwater plume.

New York↗
USGS2026

Distributed faulting of the northern West Napa Fault Zone in Napa Valley, California

Mapped surface ruptures from the 24 August 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake in the Napa Valley, California, show a 2‐km‐wide zone of distributed faulting in the southern and central West Napa fault zone (WNFZ). In the northern WNFZ at Hendry Winery (HW), however, the mapped 2014 surface ruptures encompass an ∼100‐m‐wide zone, implying significant narrowing of the near‐surface fault zone to the north. We present a tomographic shear‐wave velocity ( ⁠⁠ V S ) model and guided‐wave data that indicate the northern WNFZ is at least 400‐m wide, with multiple near‐surface fault traces. Our V S model shows that the 2014 surface ruptures are underlain by discrete low‐velocity zones (LVZs), and coincident guided‐wave data show that the LVZs carry fault‐zone guided waves. If nearby (<500 m) mapped faults to the east of HW are part of the WNFZ, the entire WNFZ is more than 1 km wide in the northern Napa Valley. WNFZ guided waves travel up to 38% slower than S body waves, and low‐strain guided‐wave shaking is up to five times stronger than the associated body‐wave shaking. Our data suggest that guided waves, traveling along distributed faults, may result in an increased shaking hazard over a 1‐km‐wide area of the northern Napa Valley during future significant earthquakes. In places, the 2014 surface ruptures were difficult to find one year after the earthquake, and paleoseismic trenching showed only weak evidence for faulting, which may not have been identified in trenches if the locations of the 2014 surface ruptures had not been previously mapped ( Prentice et al. , 2015 ). Guided‐wave and V S tomography data, however, show strong evidence for faulting beneath the 2014 surface ruptures and at locations to the east. Although paleoseismic trenching is the gold standard for identifying near‐surface faulting, methods such as peak ground velocities of guided waves may better identify immature near‐surface fault traces.

California↗
USGS2025

Water supply in the conterminous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, water years 2010–20

We present an assessment of water supply across the conterminous United States (CONUS), Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico covering water years 2010–20. Our analysis drew on two national hydrologic models, the National Hydrologic Model Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and the Weather Research and Forecasting model hydrologic modeling system. Both models produced estimates of streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and other hydrologic states and fluxes. The models were driven by the bias-adjusted 4-kilometer-resolution, long-term regional hydroclimate simulation over the conterminous United States dataset (CONUS404). We assessed spatial and temporal error distributions by comparing monthly simulations at the 12-digit hydrologic unit code and regional scale from both models against external benchmarking datasets. Results showed that average annual rainfall across the CONUS was 857 millimeters per year for the period of analysis, with water year 2012 the driest year (729 millimeters) and water year 2019 the wettest year (995 millimeters). Key interannual variability results included the following: (1) the California–Nevada hydrologic region had the highest variability in precipitation and snow accumulation, and (2) the Texas hydrologic region was among hydrologic regions with the highest variability in precipitation. We related interannual variability in precipitation to storage volumes in soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and lakes and reservoirs to highlight areas with little storage and large year-to-year variability in precipitation. These areas included the Southern High Plains, Central High Plains, Texas, Souris–Red–Rainy, Mississippi Embayment, and Midwest regions. Our analysis of groundwater-level data showed that several of these areas overlap aquifers where groundwater levels were considerably lower than historical averages, including the Colorado Plateaus aquifers, the Rio Grande aquifer system, and the Central and Southern regions of the High Plains aquifer. Many of these lowered groundwater levels are continuations of decades-long declines from overpumping that started well before the assessment period. The resulting water budgets and their analyses provide a high-resolution foundational assessment of the mean state and variability of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle across the CONUS and Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico to support a wide range of water resource management applications.

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