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USGS2004

Stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike-slip faults: Modeling and application to the northern Caribbean plate boundary

Strike-slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers. We explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike-slip faults within the forearc region using three-dimensional models of static Coulomb stress change. Model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region. In contrast, subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the Coulomb stress on strike-slip faults farther back in the forearc, while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench. A significant contribution to Coulomb stress increase on strike-slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from "unclamping" of the fault, i.e., reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface. We argue that although Coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral, their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant. We use the Coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the Caribbean subduction zone. Subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the Caribbean trench axis is dominant in the Hispaniola segment, where the strike-slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench. In contrast, subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the Caribbean trench axis along the Puerto Rico segment, where the strike-slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench. This observed jump from a strike-slip fault close to the trench axis in the Puerto Rico segment to the inland faults in Hispaniola is explained by different distributions of Coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments, as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the Puerto Rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath Hispaniola. The observations and modeling suggest that subduction-induced strike-slip seismic hazard to Puerto Rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to Hispaniola remains high. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2005

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar study of Okmok volcano, Alaska, 1992-2003: Magma supply dynamics and postemplacement lava flow deformation

Okmok volcano, located in the central Aleutian arc, Alaska, is a dominantly basaltic complex topped with a 10-km-wide caldera that formed circa 2.05 ka. Okmok erupted several times during the 20th century, most recently in 1997; eruptions in 1945, 1958, and 1997 produced lava flows within the caldera. We used 80 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images (interferograms) to study transient deformation of the volcano before, during, and after the 1997 eruption. Point source models suggest that a magma reservoir at a depth of 3.2 km below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera and about 5 km northeast of the 1997 vent, is responsible for observed volcano-wide deformation. The preeruption uplift rate decreased from about 10 cm yr −1 during 1992–1993 to 2 ∼ 3 cm yr −1 during 1993–1995 and then to about −1 ∼ −2 cm yr −1 during 1995–1996. The posteruption inflation rate generally decreased with time during 1997–2001, but increased significantly during 2001–2003. By the summer of 2003, 30 ∼ 60% of the magma volume lost from the reservoir in the 1997 eruption had been replenished. Interferograms for periods before the 1997 eruption indicate consistent subsidence of the surface of the 1958 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction. Interferograms for periods after the eruption suggest at least four distinct deformation processes: (1) volcano-wide inflation due to replenishment of the shallow magma reservoir, (2) subsidence of the 1997 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction, (3) deformation of the 1958 lava flows due to loading by the 1997 flows, and (4) continuing subsidence of 1958 lava flows buried beneath 1997 flows. Our results provide insights into the postemplacement behavior of lava flows and have cautionary implications for the interpretation of inflation patterns at active volcanoes.

Alaska↗

USGS2004

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the procedure are (1) to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, (2) to modify that using past data, and (3) to modify it further using current monitoring data. The scheme allows epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties to be dealt with in a formal way, through estimation of probability distributions at each node of the event tree. We then describe an application of the method to the case of Mount Vesuvius. Although the primary intent of the example is to illustrate the methodology, one result of this application merits special mention. The present emergency response plan for Mount Vesuvius is referenced to a maximum expected event (MEE), the largest out of all the possible eruptions within the next few decades. Our calculation suggest that there is a nonnegligible (1-20%) chance that the next eruption could be larger than that stipulated in the present MEE. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are obtained. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Mount Vesuvius↗

USGS2005

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Rupture dynamics with energy loss outside the slip zone

Energy loss in a fault damage zone, outside the slip zone, contributes to the fracture energy that determines rupture velocity of an earthquake. A nonelastic two-dimensional dynamic calculation is done in which the slip zone is modeled as a fault plane and material off the fault is subject to a Coulomb yield condition. In a mode 2 crack-like solution in which an abrupt uniform drop of shear traction on the fault spreads from a point, Coulomb yielding occurs on the extensional side of the fault. Plastic strain is distributed with uniform magnitude along the fault, and it has a thickness normal to the fault proportional to propagation distance. Energy loss off the fault is also proportional to propagation distance, and it can become much larger than energy loss on the fault specified by the fault constitutive relation. The slip velocity function could be produced in an equivalent elastic problem by a slip-weakening friction law with breakdown slip Dc increasing with distance. Fracture energy G and equivalent Dc will be different in ruptures with different initiation points and stress drops, so they are not constitutive properties; they are determined by the dynamic solution that arrives at a particular point. Peak slip velocity is, however, a property of a fault location. Nonelastic response can be mimicked by imposing a limit on slip velocity on a fault in an elastic medium.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

New constraints on mechanisms of remotely triggered seismicity at Long Valley Caldera

Regional-scale triggering of local earthquakes in the crust by seismic waves from distant main shocks has now been robustly documented for over a decade. Some of the most thoroughly recorded examples of repeated triggering of a single site from multiple, large earthquakes are measured in geothermal fields of the western United States like Long Valley Caldera. As one of the few natural cases where the causality of an earthquake sequence is apparent, triggering provides fundamental constraints on the failure processes in earthquakes. We show here that the observed triggering by seismic waves is inconsistent with any mechanism that depends on cumulative shaking as measured by integrated energy density. We also present evidence for a frequency-dependent triggering threshold. On the basis of the seismic records of 12 regional and teleseismic events recorded at Long Valley Caldera, long-period waves (>30 s) are more effective at generating local seismicity than short-period waves of comparable amplitude. If the properties of the system are stationary over time, the failure threshold for long-period waves is ~0.05 cm/s vertical shaking. Assuming a phase velocity of 3.5 km/s and an elastic modulus of 3.5 x 10 10 Pa, the threshold in terms of stress is 5 kPa. The frequency dependence is due in part to the attenuation of the surface waves with depth. Fluid flow through a porous medium can produce the rest of the observed frequency dependence of the threshold. If the threshold is not stationary with time, pore pressures that are >99.5% of lithostatic and vary over time by a factor of 4 could explain the observations with no frequency dependence of the triggering threshold.

California↗

USGS2005

Evolution of melt-vapor surface tension in silicic volcanic systems: Experiments with hydrous melts

We evaluate the melt‐vapor surface tension (σ) of natural, water‐saturated dacite melt at 200 MPa, 950–1055°C, and 4.8–5.7 wt % H 2 O. We experimentally determine the critical supersaturation pressure for bubble nucleation as a function of dissolved water and then solve for σ at those conditions using classical nucleation theory. The solutions obtained give dacite melt‐vapor surface tensions that vary inversely with dissolved water from 0.042 (±0.003) J m −2 at 5.7 wt % H 2 O to 0.060 (±0.007) J m −2 at 5.2 wt % H 2 O to 0.073 (±0.003) J m −2 at 4.8 wt % H 2 O. Combining our dacite results with data from published hydrous haplogranite and high‐silica rhyolite experiments reveals that melt‐vapor surface tension also varies inversely with the concentration of mafic melt components (e.g., CaO, FeO total , MgO). We develop a thermodynamic context for these observations in which melt‐vapor surface tension is represented by a balance of work terms controlled by melt structure. Overall, our results suggest that cooling, crystallization, and vapor exsolution cause systematic changes in σ that should be considered in dynamic modeling of magmatic processes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2004

Stress orientations at intermediate angles to the San Andreas Fault, California

There are currently two competing models for the frictional strength of the San Andreas Fault in California: the strong-fault model and the weak-fault model. The strong-fault model predicts the maximum horizontal compressive stress axis to be at low angles to the fault, while the relatively weak fault model predicts it to be at high angles. Previous studies have disagreed as to which model is supported by observed stress orientations. We review and compare these studies and present results from several new focal mechanism stress inversions. We find that the observed stress orientations of different studies are generally consistent, implying that the disagreement is one of interpretation. The majority of studies find compressive stress orientations at intermediate angles to the fault, not strictly consistent with either current model. The strong-fault model is acceptable if the San Andreas is assumed to be a nonoptimally orientated fault that fails because optimally oriented, preexisting planes are not present. The relatively weak fault model is not consistent with the stress orientations. We propose two alternative models to better explain the observed intermediate stress orientations: an intermediate-strength San Andreas model and a model in which all major active faults are weak.

California↗

USGS2005

Forearc structure beneath southwestern British Columbia: A three-dimensional tomographic velocity model

This paper presents a three-dimensional compressional wave velocity model of the forearc crust and upper mantle and the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath southwestern British Columbia and the adjoining straits of Georgia and Juan de Fuca. The velocity model was constructed through joint tomographic inversion of 50,000 first-arrival times from earthquakes and active seismic sources. Wrangellia rocks of the accreted Paleozoic and Mesozoic island arc assemblage underlying southern Vancouver Island in the Cascadia forearc are imaged at some locations with higher than average lower crustal velocities of 6.5-7.2 km/s, similar to observations at other island arc terranes. The mafic Eocene Crescent terrane, thrust landward beneath southern Vancouver Island, exhibits crustal velocities in the range of 6.0-6.7 km/s and is inferred to extend to a depth of more than 20 km. The Cenozoic Olympic Subduction Complex, an accretionary prism thrust beneath the Crescent terrane in the Olympic Peninsula, is imaged as a low-velocity wedge to depths of at least 20 km. Three zones with velocities of 7.0-7.5 km/s, inferred to be mafic and/or ultramafic units, lie above the subducting Juan de Fuca plate at depths of 25-35 km. The forearc upper mantle wedge beneath southeastern Vancouver Island and the Strait of Georgia exhibits low velocities of 7.2-7.5 km/s, inferred to correspond to ???20% serpentinization of mantle peridotites, and consistent with similar observations in other warm subduction zones. Estimated dip of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath southern Vancouver Island is ???11??, 16??, and 27?? at depths of 30, 40, and 50 km, respectively. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

The calcite → aragonite transformation in low-Mg marble: Equilibrium relations, transformations mechanisms, and rates

Experimental transformation of a rather pure natural calcite marble to aragonite marble did not proceed via the expected straightforward polymorphic replacement. Instead, the small amount of Mg in the starting material (0.36 wt %) was excluded from the growing aragonite and diffused preferentially into the remaining calcite grains, producing Mg-rich calcite rods that persisted as relicts. Nucleation of aragonite occurred exclusively on grain boundaries, with aragonite [001] oriented subparallel to calcite [0001]. The aragonite crystals preferentially consumed the calcite crystal on which they nucleated, and the reaction fronts developed preferentially along the {010} and {110} planes of aragonite. Each aragonite neoblast that grew was nearly free of Mg (typically <0.1 wt %). The excess Mg was taken up by the calcite grains in between, stabilizing them and causing a few volume percent rodlike relicts of Mg-enriched calcite (up to 10 wt % MgO) to be left behind by the advancing reaction front. The aragonite growth rates are approximately linear and range from &sim;3 × 10 −11 m s −1 at 600°C to &sim;9 × 10 −9 m s −1 at 850°C, with an apparent activation enthalpy of 166 ± 91 kJ mol −1 . This reaction mechanism and the resultant texture are akin to cellular precipitation reactions in metals. Similar transformation textures have been reported from high-Mg marbles in Japan and China that disproportionated to low-Mg calcite and dolomite.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Magnitude and location of historical earthquakes in Japan and implications for the 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity assignments IJMA are used to derive intensity attenuation models suitable for estimating the location and an intensity magnitude Mjma for historical earthquakes in Japan. The intensity for shallow crustal earthquakes on Honshu is equal to -1.89 + 1.42MJMA - 0.00887?? h - 1.66log??h, where MJMA is the JMA magnitude, ??h = (??2 + h2)1/2, and ?? and h are epicentral distance and focal depth (km), respectively. Four earthquakes located near the Japan Trench were used to develop a subducting plate intensity attenuation model where intensity is equal to -8.33 + 2.19MJMA -0.00550??h - 1.14 log ?? h. The IJMA assignments for the MJMA7.9 great 1923 Kanto earthquake on the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface are consistent with the subducting plate model; Using the subducting plate model and 226 IJMA IV-VI assignments, the location of the intensity center is 25 km north of the epicenter, Mjma is 7.7, and MJMA is 7.3-8.0 at the 1?? confidence level. Intensity assignments and reported aftershock activity for the enigmatic 11 November 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake are consistent with an MJMA 7.2 Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate source or Philippine Sea intraslab source at about 30 km depth. If the 1855 earthquake was a Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate event, the intensity center was adjacent to and downdip of the rupture area of the great 1923 Kanto earthquake, suggesting that the 1855 and 1923 events ruptured adjoining sections of the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Response of seismicity to Coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The correlation between static Coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that stress changes promote seismicity, a correlation that the Chi-Chi earthquake well exhibits. Several studies have deepened the argument by resolving stress changes on aftershock focal mechanisms, which removes the assumption that the aftershocks are optimally oriented for failure. Here one compares the percentage of planes on which failure is promoted after the main shock relative to the percentage beforehand. For Chi-Chi we find a 28% increase for thrust and an 18% increase for strike-slip mechanisms, commensurate with increases reported for other large main shocks. However, perhaps the chief criticism of static stress triggering is the difficulty in observing predicted seismicity rate decreases in the stress shadows, or sites of Coulomb stress decrease. Detection of sustained drops in seismicity rate demands a long catalog with a low magnitude of completeness and a high seismicity rate, conditions that are met at Chi-Chi. We find four lobes with statistically significant seismicity rate declines of 40-90% for 50 months, and they coincide with the stress shadows calculated for strike-slip faults, the dominant faulting mechanism. The rate drops are evident in uniform cell calculations, 100-month time series, and by visual inspection of the M ??? 3 seismicity. An additional reason why detection of such declines has proven so rare emerges from this study: there is a widespread increase in seismicity rate during the first 3 months after Chi-Chi, and perhaps many other main shocks, that might be associated with a different mechanism. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2006

Distribution of stress drop, stiffness, and fracture energy over earthquake rupture zones

Using information provided by slip models and the methodology of McGarr and Fletcher (2002), we map static stress drop, stiffness (k = ????/u, where ???? is static stress drop and u is slip), and fracture energy over the slip surface to investigate the earthquake rupture process and energy budget. For the 1994 M6.7 Northridge, 1992 M7.3 Landers, and 1995 M6.9 Kobe earthquakes, the distributions of static stress drop show strong heterogeneity, emphasizing the importance of asperities in the rupture process. Average values of static stress drop are 17, 11, and 4 Mpa for Northridge, Landers, and Kobe, respectively. These values are substantially higher than estimates based on simple crack models, suggesting that the failure process involves the rupture of asperities within the larger fault zone. Stress drop as a function of depth for the Northridge and Landers earthquakes suggests that stress drops are limited by crustal strength. For these two earthquakes, regions of high slip are surrounded by high values of stiffness. Particularly for the Northridge earthquake, the prominent patch of high slip in the central part of the fault is bordered by a ring of high stiffness and is consistent with expectations based on the failure of an asperity loaded at its edge due to exterior slip. Stiffness within an asperity is inversely related to its dimensions. Estimates of fracture energy, based on static stress drop, slip, and rupture speed, were used to investigate the nature of slip weakening at four locations near the hypocenter of the Kobe earthquake for comparison with independent results based on a dynamic model of this earthquake. One subfault updip and to the NE of the hypocenter has a fracture energy of 1.1 MJ/m2 and a slip-weakening distance, Dc, of 0.66 m. Right triangles, whose base and height are Dc and the dynamic stress drop, respectively, approximately overlie the slip-dependent stress given by Ide and Takeo (1997) for the same locations near the hypocenter. The total fracture energy for the Kobe earthquake, 3.7 ?? 1014 J, is about the same as the seismic energy (Ea = 3.2 ?? 1014 J.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Distribution of aseismic slip rate on the Hayward fault inferred from seismic and geodetic data

We solve for the slip rate distribution on the Hayward fault by performing a least squares inversion,of geodetic and seismic data sets. Our analysis focuses on the northern 60 km of the fault. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 13 independent ERS interferograms are stacked to obtain range change rates from 1992 to 2000. Horizontal surface displacement rates at 141 bench marks are measured using GPS from 1994 to 2003. Surface creep observations and estimates of deep slip rates determined from characteristic repeating earthquake sequences are also incorporated in the inversion. The fault is discretized into 283 triangular dislocation elements that approximate the nonplanar attributes of the fault surface. South of the city of Hayward, a steeply, east dipping fault geometry accommodates the divergence of the surface trace and the microseismicity at depth. The inferred slip rate distribution is consistent with a fault that creeps aseismically at a rate of ???5 mm/yr to a depth of 4-6 km. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data require an aseismic slip rate that approaches the geologic slip rate on the northernmost fault segment beneath Point Pinole, although the InSAR data might be complicated by a small dip-slip component at this location. A low slip rate patch of <1 mm/yr is inferred beneath San Leandro consistent with the source location of the 1868 earthquake. We calculate that the entire fault is accumulating a slip rate deficit equivalent to a Mw = 6.77 ?? 0.05 per century. However, this estimate of potential coseismic moment represents an upper bound because we do not know how much of the accumulated strain will be released through aseismic processes such as afterslip. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Structure and stress state of Hawaiian island basalts penetrated by the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project deep core hole

As part of the Hawaii Scientific Drilling Project (HSDP), an exploratory hole was drilled in 1993 to a depth of 1056 meters below sea level (mbsl) and a deeper hole was drilled to 3098 mbsl in 1999. A set of geophysical well logs was obtained in the deeper hole that provides fundamental information regarding the structure and the state of stress that exist within a volcanic shield. The acoustic televiewer generates digital, magnetically oriented images of the borehole wall, and inspection of this log yields a continuous record of fracture orientation with depth and also with age to 540 ka. The data depict a clockwise rotation in fracture strike through the surficial Mauna Loa basalts that settles to a constant heading in the underlying Mauna Kea rocks. This behavior reflects the depositional slope directions of lavas and the locations of volcanic sources relative to the drill site. The deviation log delineates the trajectory of the well bore in three-dimensional space. This path closely follows changes in fracture orientation with depth as the drill bit is generally prodded perpendicular to fracture strike during the drilling process. Stress-induced breakouts observed in the televiewer log identify the orientations ot the maximum and minimum horizontal principal stresses to be north-south and east-west, respectively. This stress state is attributed to the combination of a sharp break in onshore-offshore slope that reduces stress east-west and the emergence of Kilauea that increases stress north-south. Breakouts are extensive and appear over approximately 30% of the open hole. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer

We develop a forecast model to reproduce the distibution of main shocks, aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986-200 in a 300 ?? 310 km area centered on the 1992 M = 7.3 Landers earthquake. To parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks, we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock; this reveals aftershock zone migration, expansion, and densification. We implement a rate/state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each M ??? 6 shock and then evolves. Coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity, so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity. Similarly, seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates. Thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate, which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity. The mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted M ??? 1.4 shocks (the minimum magnitude of completeness) is 0.52 for 1986-2003 and 0.63 for 1992-2003; a control standard aftershock model yields 0.54 and 0.52 for the same periods. Four M ??? 6.0 shocks struck during the test period; three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile, and one is located above the 75 percentile. The model thus reproduces much, but certainly not all, of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity, from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades. Finally, we offer a M ??? 5 earthquake forecast for 2005-2015, assigning probabilities to 324 10 ?? 10 km cells.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗