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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2013

Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036 yr −1 . Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value <0.05). Only 4% of the vegetated area showed significant decrease trends, which were mostly in the central and southwestern plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

Tibet;Qinghai↗

USGS2023

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

Premise Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. Methods We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. Results Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. Conclusions Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

American Journal of Botany↗

USGS2024

Climate, hydrology, and nutrients control the seasonality of Si concentrations in rivers

The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termed DSi regime , mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large-scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences↗

USGS2016

Pika ( Ochotona princeps ) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region

Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2024

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS1973

Stream-profile analysis and stream-gradient index

The generally regular three-dimensional geometry of drainage networks is the basis for a simple method of terrain analysis providing clues to bedrock conditions and other factors that determine topographic forms. On a reach of any stream, a gradient-index value can be obtained which allows meaningful comparisons of channel slope on streams of different sizes. The index is believed to reflect stream power or competence and is simply the product of the channel slope at a point and channel length measured along the longest stream above the point where the calculation is made. In an adjusted topography, changes in gradient-index values along a stream generally correspond to differences in bedrock or introduced load. In any landscape the gradient index of a stream is related to total relief and stream regimen. Thus, climate, tectonic events, and geomorphic history must be considered in using the gradient index. Gradient-index values can be obtained quickly by simple measurements on topographic maps, or they can be obtained by more sophisticated photogrammetric measurements that involve simple computer calculations from x, y, z coordinates.

Journal of Research of the U.S. Geological Survey↗

USGS2024

Adapting standardized trout monitoring to a changing climate for the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, USA

Objective Long‐term standardized monitoring programs are fundamental to assessing how fish populations respond to anthropogenic stressors. Standardized monitoring programs may need to adopt new methods to adapt to rapid environmental changes that are associated with a changing climate. In the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, biologists have used a standardized, mark–recapture monitoring protocol to annually estimate the abundance of trout since 1978 to assess population status and trends. However, within the past two decades, climate change has caused changes in discharge timing that have prevented standardized monitoring from occurring annually. Methods We investigated the feasibility of using two analytical methods, N‐mixture models and mean capture probability, for estimating the abundance of three trout species in the upper Yellowstone River using the historical long‐term data set; these methods allow abundance to be estimated when a mark–recapture estimate cannot be obtained due to hydrologic conditions. Result When compared with abundance estimates from mark–recapture methods, N‐mixture models most often resulted in negatively biased abundance estimates, whereas mean capture probability analyses resulted in positively biased abundance estimates. Additionally, N‐mixture models produced negatively biased estimates when tested against true abundance values from simulated data sets. The bias in the N‐mixture model estimates was caused by poor model fit and variation in capture probability. The bias in the mean capture probability estimates was caused by heterogeneity in capture probability, likely caused by variable environmental conditions, which were not accounted for in the models. Conclusion N‐mixture models and mean capture probability are not viable alternatives for estimating abundance in the upper Yellowstone River. Thus, exploring additional adaptations to sampling methodologies and analytical approaches, including models that require individually marked fish, will be valuable for this system. Climate change will undoubtedly necessitate changes to standardized sampling methods throughout the world; thus, developing alternative sampling and analytical methods will be important for maintaining the utility of long‐term data sets.

Montana↗

USGS2019

Bioclimatic envelopes for individual demographic events driven by extremes: Plant mortality from drought and warming

The occurrence of plant species across the globe is largely constrained by climate. Ecologists use plant-climate relationships such as bioclimatic envelopes and related niche models to determine potential environmental conditions promoting probable species occurrence. Traditionally bioclimatic envelopes either exclude disturbance explicitly, or only include disturbance as infrequent and smaller scale processes, assuming that the net effect of climate parameters on key demographic processes predict longer-term equilibrial responses of biota. Due to increasing frequency and extent of extreme events associated with climate change, ecologists may need to increase focus on individual demographic events driven by environmental extremes such as widespread coral bleaching or large-scale tree die-off. An expanded focus on how extreme events catalyze individual demographic events would complement existing tools that predict long-term equilibrial biogeographic responses associated with long-term trends in climate. In many cases, extreme conditions (e.g. drought) are a necessary precursor for an abrupt demographic event (e.g. large-scale tree die-off) and the effects of extremes can be exacerbated by climatic trends (e.g. higher temperatures in combination with drought). Here, we highlight application of bioclimatic models for predicting individual demographic events. Defining the environmental conditions that precipitate demographic events such as widespread tree mortality is a necessary precursor for applying predictions to geographic space, and may require challenging biota with experiments that impose a combination of ecologically extreme conditions in one parameter and a shifting distribution in another (e.g. drought under higher temperatures). Currently data on conditions that drive individual demographic events associated with extremes are usually rare, aggregated across time, and/or correlative. We highlight this approach with a case study of drought-induced mortality in adult Pinus edulis trees that predicts a more than five-fold increase in frequency of die-off events under a global change scenario of high emissions. This general approach complements both traditional bioclimatic envelopes and more detailed physiological approaches currently being refined to address climate change challenges. Notably, this proposed approach could be developed for any climate condition or plant life stage, offering promise for improving predictions of individual demographic events that are rapidly altering ecosystems globally.

International Journal of Plant Sciences↗

USGS2021

A case for multiscale habitat selection studies of small mammals

Habitat information for small mammals typically consists of anecdotal descriptions or infrequent analyses of habitat use, which often are reported erroneously as signifying habitat preference, requirements, or quality. Habitat preferences can be determined only by analysis of habitat selection, a behavioral process that results in the disproportionate use of one resource over other available resources and occurs in a hierarchical manner across different environmental scales. North American chipmunks ( Neotamias and Tamias ) are a prime example of the lack of studies on habitat selection for small mammal species. We used the Organ Mountains Colorado chipmunk ( N. quadrivittatus australis ) as a case study to determine whether previous descriptions of habitat in the literature were upheld in a multiscale habitat selection context. We tracked VHF radiocollared chipmunks and collected habitat information at used and available locations to analyze habitat selection at three scales: second order (i.e., home range), third order (i.e., within home range), and microhabitat scales. Mean home range was 2.55 ha ± 1.55 SD and did not differ between sexes. At the second and third order, N. q. australis avoided a coniferous forest land cover type and favored particular areas of arroyos (gullies) that were relatively steep-sided and greener and contained montane scrub land cover type. At the microhabitat scale, chipmunks selected areas that had greater woody plant diversity, rock ground cover, and ground cover of coarse woody debris. We concluded that habitat selection by N. q. australis fundamentally was different from descriptions of habitat in the literature that described N. quadrivittatus as primarily associated with coniferous forests. We suggest that arroyos, which are unique and rare on the landscape, function as climate refugia for these chipmunks because they create a cool, wet microclimate. Our findings demonstrate the importance of conducting multiscale habitat selection studies for small mammals to ensure that defensible and enduring habitat information is available to support appropriate conservation and management actions.

New Mexico↗

USGS1994

Multiple isotopic components in Quaternary volcanic rocks of the Cascade Arc near Crater lake, Oregon

Quaternary lavas and pyroclastic rocks of Mount Mazama, Crater lake caldera, and the surrounding area have variable Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopic compositions. High-alumina olivine tholeiites have 87Ar/86Ar ratios of 0.70346-0.70364; basaltic andesite, 0.70349-0.70372; shoshonitic basaltic andesite, 0.70374-0.70388; and andesite, 0.70324-0.70383. Dacites of Mount Mazama have 87Sr/ 86Sr ratios of 0.70348-0.70373. Most rhyodacites converge on 0.7037. Andesitic to mafic-cumulate scoriae of the climatic eruption, and enclaves in pre-climactic rhyodacites, cluster in two groups but show nearly the entire 87Sr/86Sr range of the data set, confirming previously suggested introduction of diverse parental magmas into the growing climactic chamber. Magma evolution is described.

Oregon↗

USGS2023

Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West Brook

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2014

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk ( Cervus elaphus roosevelti ) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2010

Chytridiomycosis widespread in Anurans of Northeastern United States

An emerging disease of amphibians caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been associated with morbidity, mortality, and extinction of species. Typically, researchers have detected B. dendrobatidis only when examining amphibians for causes of mortalities; few data exist on infection rates where mortalities are lacking. During May-September 2000-2002 we obtained amphibian specimens killed by vehicles and others collected at remote off-road sites throughout Maine, USA, and from federal lands in 5 states in the Northeast. We detected infected specimens, mostly green frogs ( Rana clamitans ), at 5 of 7 national wildlife refuges, a federal waterfowl production area, and Acadia National Park. Seven of 9 species, including all Ranidae species, were infected throughout Maine; rates ranged from 14.6% in American toads ( Bufo americanus ) to 25.7% in northern leopard frogs ( Rana pipiens ). We did not detect any infections in 50 eastern gray tree frogs ( Hyla versicolor ) or 21 spring peepers ( Pseudacris crucifer ). Species that hibernate in terrestrial habitats seem to have lower rates of infection than species that hibernate in aquatic habitats. Infections peaked in spring and autumn and were associated with air temperatures optimal for B. dendrobatidis growth. The relatively high infection rates among species without documented die-offs suggest that either losses have occurred undetected, that the fungus is endemic and species have attained a level of resistance to infections becoming lethal, or that climatic conditions of the Northeast have a role in preventing infections from being lethal. Data on prevalence and distribution of this chytrid fungus in the Northeast may be useful in modeling its origins and predicting long-term ecosystem effects involving anurans.

Maine↗

USGS2008

Late-Holocene fossil rodent middens from the Arica region of northernmost Chile

Identification of >40 taxa of plant macrofossils in 14 rodent (Abrocoma) middens collected from 2800 to 3590 m elevation at the latitude of Arica, Chile (18°S) provide snapshots of vegetation in the northernmost Atacama Desert over the past 3000 years. Midden floras show considerable stability throughout the late Holocene, which may be due in part to the broad elevational ranges of many perennial species and midden insensitivity to changes in plant community structure. The greatest variability is found in annuals in the Prepuna, a climatically sensitive zone. This variability, however might also arise from the brevity of midden depositional episodes. As the first midden record from the Arica-Parinacota Region (Chile's northernmost administrative region), this study demonstrates the potential for future midden research in this area.

Arica-Parinacota Region↗

USGS2019

Monitoring the Riverine Pulse: Applying high-frequency nitrate data to advance integrative understanding of biogeochemical and hydrological processes

Widespread deployment of sensors that measure river nitrate (NO3-) concentrations has led to many recent publications in water resources journals including review papers focused on data quality assurance, improved load calculations, and better nutrient management. The principal objective of this paper is to review and synthesize studies of high-frequency NO3- data that have aimed to improve understanding of the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes underlying episodic, diel, and long-term stream NO3- dynamics. Investigations have provided unprecedented detail on hysteresis and flushing patterns during high flow, seasonal variation during baseflow, and responses to multi-year climate variation. Analyses of high-frequency data have led to notable advances in understanding how climate variation affects spatial and temporal NO3- patterns, especially dry-wet cycles and antecedent moisture. Further advances have been limited by few investigations that include high-frequency measurements outside the channel and the short duration of many records. High-frequency data for multiple constituents have provided new insight to the relative roles of hydrology and biogeochemistry as highlighted by studies of the roles of autotrophic uptake, denitrification, riparian evapotranspiration, and temperature-driven changes in viscosity as drivers of diel patterns. Comparisons of short-duration high-frequency data with long-duration low frequency data have described similarities and differences in concentration – discharge patterns and highlighted the role of legacy stores. Investigators have applied innovative analysis approaches not previously possible with low-frequency or temporally-irregular data. Future availability of long-duration high-frequency data will provide new insight to processes, resulting in improved conceptual models and a deeper understanding of the role of climate variation.

WIREs Water↗

USGS2002

Modeling soil thermal and carbon dynamics of a fire chronosequence in interior Alaska

In this study, the dynamics of soil thermal, hydrologic, and ecosystem processes were coupled to project how the carbon budgets of boreal forests will respond to changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate, and fire disturbance. The ability of the model to simulate gross primary production and ecosystem respiration was verified for a mature black spruce ecosystem in Canada, the age-dependent pattern of the simulated vegetation carbon was verified with inventory data on aboveground growth of Alaskan black spruce forests, and the model was applied to a postfire chronosequence in interior Alaska. The comparison between the simulated soil temperature and field-based estimates during the growing season (May to September) of 1997 revealed that the model was able to accurately simulate monthly temperatures at 10 cm ( R > 0.93) for control and burned stands of the fire chronosequence. Similarly, the simulated and field-based estimates of soil respiration for control and burned stands were correlated ( R = 0.84 and 0.74 for control and burned stands, respectively). The simulated and observed decadal to century-scale dynamics of soil temperature and carbon dynamics, which are represented by mean monthly values of these variables during the growing season, were correlated among stands ( R = 0.93 and 0.71 for soil temperature at 20- and 10-cm depths, R = 0.95 and 0.91 for soil respiration and soil carbon, respectively). Sensitivity analyses indicate that along with differences in fire and climate history a number of other factors influence the response of carbon dynamics to fire disturbance. These factors include nitrogen fixation, the growth of moss, changes in the depth of the organic layer, soil drainage, and fire severity.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California

Background Understanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US). Aims We propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate data to assess regional variation in causal mechanisms. Methods We analyzed fire statistics (1910–2021) alongside climate and weather data, stratifying the state by 10 ecoregions. Key results Northern forests had the strongest correlation with the proximate factor fuel aridity, ultimately due to climate. Fire rotation intervals exceeded 100 years, implicating woody fuel accumulation as an additional factor. Lightning ignitions occurred in decadal bursts, with dense strike events potentially overwhelming fire-fighting resources. Lower elevation/latitude foothill ecoregions experienced highest fire activity following wet winters and springs, implicating control by herbaceous fuel loads and a negative effect of global warming on future fires. Human ignitions dominate in these ecoregions, and population growth contributes to expansion of powerlines, a major ignition source. Conclusions While climate change may increase fire activity in forested ecoregions, its role is less pronounced in non-forested ecoregions, where human ignition sources are the dominant factor. Implications Different areas within ecoregions may require different management actions that reflect the specific proximate and ultimate factors at play.

California↗

USGS2015

Life-stage-specific physiology defines invasion extent of a riverine fish

Many ecologists have called for mechanism-based investigations to identify the underlying controls on species distributions. Understanding these controls can be especially useful to construct robust predictions of how a species range may change in response to climate change or the extent to which a non-native species may spread in novel environments. Here, we link spatially intensive observations with mechanistic models to illustrate how physiology determines the upstream extent of the aquatic ectotherm smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) in two headwater rivers. Our results demonstrate that as temperatures become increasingly cold across a downstream to upstream gradient, food consumption in age 0 bass becomes increasingly constrained, and as a result, these fish become growth limited. Sufficient first summer growth of age 0 bass is essential for overwinter survival because young bass must persist from energy reserves accumulated during the summer, and those reserves are determined by body size. Our field data reveal the upstream extent of adult bass reproduction corresponds to a point in the downstream/upstream gradient where cold temperatures impair growth opportunities in young bass. This pattern was repeated in both study streams and explained why bass positioned nests twice as far upstream in the warm compared to the cold stream in the same basin. Placement of spawning nests by adult bass is likely subject to strong evolutionary selection in temperate systems: if bass spawn too far upstream, their young are unlikely to grow large enough to survive the winter. Consumption and growth in older bass (age 3–4) was far less sensitive to temperature. Based on these data, we suggest that temperature-sensitive age 0 bass constrain the upstream distribution limits of bass within temperate streams. In this study, we investigated how temperature-dependent physiology changed through the life history of a species and, in doing so, identified a climate-sensitive life-history stage that likely sets the distributional limits of all other life-history stages. We anticipate the framework developed here could be employed to identify how similar stage-specific environmental sensitivity determines distribution in many other ectothermic species.

Oregon↗