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Complex landslide patterns explained by local intra-unit variability of stratigraphy and structure: Case study in the Tyee Formation, Oregon, USA

Lithology and geologic structure are important controls on landslide susceptibility and are incorporated into many regional landslide hazard models. Typically, metrics for mapped geologic units are used as model input variables and a single set of values for material strength are assumed, regardless of spatial heterogeneities that may exist within a map unit. Here we describe how differences in bedding thickness, grain size, inferred uniaxial compressive strength, and bedding dip control the inherent susceptibility of slopes to deep-seated failure within a single mapped geologic unit - the Tyee Formation of Oregon, USA. The Tyee, which covers over 15,000 km2 and underlies much of the Oregon Coast Range, comprises gently folded alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone deposited as turbidites, forming a 2-km thick Eocene submarine fan which has been uplifted and exhumed through the Cenozoic. Deep-seated landslides are widespread in the Tyee, but form a complex spatial pattern such that landslide density ranges from 0 to 24% of the total landscape area. These slides are often extensive and sufficiently deep to reduce local hillslope gradients, resulting in a strong negative correlation between landslide density and mean local slope. Mean annual precipitation and predicted strong ground motions from Cascadia earthquake scenarios also fail to explain the spatial distribution of deep-seated landslides. Consequently, landslide stability models, which are strongly influenced by landscape slope, pore-water pressure, and seismic acceleration, yield landslide susceptibility maps which are broadly anti-correlated with mapped deep-seated landslide density. Through a multivariable linear regression model, we show that much of the variance in deep-seated landslide density can be explained by variability of intra-unit stratigraphic and structural characteristics, which we measure at 128 sites across two study areas totaling ∼3000 km2. Our results suggest bedding dip is only weakly correlated to landslide density, but strongly influences landslide failure style. Subtle increases in bedding dip, even in the gently folded Tyee Formation, result in a substantially higher likelihood of a landslide being cataclinal, or parallel to bedding. Overall, we find a slight majority of landslides fail within these cataclinal slopes, and that these landslides tend to be larger than non-cataclinal landslides. We also show that the lithological and structural properties that influence landslide susceptibility are distinct for these two populations of landslides. Our results demonstrate how localized, intra-unit, geologic variability can exert strong control on landslide susceptibility and failure style. This suggests that in some locations, landslide hazard models could be significantly improved by incorporating detailed, spatially variable, geologic properties rather than relying solely on generalized geologic map units.

Oregon

Mountain goat declines in a protected, interior, native population

A shifting climate poses threats to alpine-adapted species including mountain goats. We used long-term (12 years) citizen science monitoring data and Bayesian N-mixture modeling to estimate population trends and drivers of population metrics among mountain goats in Glacier National Park (GNP). Median goats per site ( n = 37 sites) declined by 45% (95% credible interval [CRI] = 32%, 57%) from 77.8 (95% CRI = 64.4, 95.1) in 2008 to 42.3 (95% CRI = 34.3, 52.2) in 2019, with consistent declines from 2008 until 2015, when the number of estimated goats stabilized. The decline exceeds IUCN criteria for classifying a population as vulnerable, >30% declines over only two generations. Across years, relatively few goats occupied northwestern GNP. Goat numbers declined the most at northeastern sites, trended toward decline in most southern sites, and increased at only two west-central sites. The proportion of permanent snow and glaciers, the presence of natural mineral licks, and habituation strongly increased the initial abundance of goats in the area. Weather variables had the greatest influence on population growth rates, particularly precipitation between May 15 and June 15 of the previous summer, the neonatal period. Lower growth occurred with less snow water equivalent and lower mean winter temperature, early summer temperature, and early summer precipitation. Projected reductions of permanent snow, increasing spring and summer temperatures, and insufficient and variable spring precipitation raise concerns for the future of native goats in this region. Our analyses reveal ways to improve detection rates of goats during surveys, which is important for optimizing the precision of estimates and the power to detect future trends. Detection increased with goat habituation, retention of observers with experience, use of binoculars, and conducting surveys at lower temperatures and earlier dates. Improving detection will be particularly important given the lower number of goats currently observed in the park. Research to estimate park-wide population size, evaluate genetic structure and diversity, assess changing habitat, human recreation levels and forage, and forward-project climate effects on persistence will be crucial to understanding the context of these results and conserving this iconic, metapopulation at the southern edge of the distribution of native mountain goats.

Montana

Treatability study to evaluate bioremediation of trichloroethene at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, 2020–22

Executive Summary Chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethene (TCE) and other chlorinated volatile organic compounds (cVOCs), are widespread contaminants that can be treated by bioremediation approaches that enhance anaerobic reductive dechlorination. Reductive dechlorination can be enhanced either through the addition of an electron donor (biostimulation) or the addition of a known dechlorinating culture (bioaugmentation) along with an electron donor. Although bioremediation has been applied at many TCE-contaminated groundwater sites, application in source zones at sites where residual dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) is present is more limited. In this study, laboratory and field treatability tests were completed to evaluate the potential application of anaerobic bioremediation for a shallow groundwater plume containing TCE in a perched alluvial aquifer at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, which was on the National Priorities List as the New Brighton/Arden Hills Superfund site until 2019. In addition to the presence of residual DNAPL at the site, temporal variability in groundwater flow directions and input of oxygenated recharge were possible complicating factors for the application of enhanced anaerobic biodegradation in the shallow plume. The Site K plume extends beneath the footprint of Building 103, which was demolished in 2006, and soil excavations to a maximum depth of 6 feet (ft) below ground surface in 2014 were known to leave some deeper contaminated soil in place in the TCE source area. Groundwater treatment at the site, formalized as part of the 1997 Record of Decision, has been in operation since 1986 and consists of an extraction trench at the downgradient edge of the plume to collect groundwater, which is then pumped to an on-site air stripper. Groundwater concentrations in the plume have been relatively stable since treatment began, indicating a continued source of TCE in the aquifer. The desire for a destructive remedy that would enhance the removal of cVOCs in the aquifer at Site K and shorten the remediation timeframe led the U.S. Army to request that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct a groundwater treatability study to assess bioremediation. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey bioremediation treatability study conducted during 2020–22, including pre-design site characterization to assist in formulating the bioremediation approach, laboratory experiments to support the design of the field pilot test, and implementation and 1-year performance monitoring results for the pilot test. Pre-design site characterization included the collection of soil cores for cVOC analysis and lithologic descriptions and the re-installment of three wells to obtain hydrologic measurements and initial groundwater chemistry. Relatively flat head gradients were measured at the site, and substantial decreases in water-level elevations occurred from spring to summer (May–July 2021). Continuous water-level monitoring indicated a rapid response to precipitation. Groundwater flow velocities were consistently less than 0.5 foot per day, and the pilot bioremediation test was therefore designed with short lateral distances (about 5 ft) between injection and individual monitoring points. Soil analyses confirmed that high volatile organic compound contamination was left in place in the source area. The highest concentrations were near or in clay at the base of the perched aquifer. Concentrations of cVOCs measured in the replaced wells were consistent with historical data and had a maximum TCE concentration of 57,700 micrograms per liter (μg/L), indicative of nearby residual DNAPL based on the general rule of observed concentrations exceeding 1 percent of solubility. The primary TCE daughter product detected was 1,2-cis-dichloroethene (cisDCE), which indicated limited reductive dechlorination in the plume. Groundwater in both the source and downgradient areas was relatively reducing during the pre-design characterization, particularly in the source area where methane concentrations greater than 400 μg/L were measured. Initial laboratory tests conducted using native aquifer microorganisms from the three replacement wells showed that anaerobic TCE biodegradation rates were low when biostimulated with the addition of sodium lactate as an electron donor, also known as a carbon donor, and resulted in the production of only cisDCE. Addition of a known dechlorinating culture, WBC-2, however, resulted in rapid biodegradation and production of ethene, verifying complete reductive dechlorination of TCE. Microcosms constructed with aquifer soil collected from the site were used to evaluate other electron donors besides lactate to support reductive dechlorination by WBC-2, including corn syrup as an alternative fast-release compound and whey, soy-based vegetable oil, and 3-D Microemulsion (Regenesis, San Clemente, California) as slow-release compounds. First-order rate constants for total organic chlorine removal in these WBC-2 amended microcosms were greatest with either lactate or vegetable oil as the donor, ranging between 0.061 and 0.047 per day or corresponding half-lives of 11–15 days. Testing of commercial products in other WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms led to selection for the field pilot test of an emulsified vegetable oil product that also contained some sodium lactate as a fast-release donor. Delaying the addition of WBC-2 relative to the donor in the microcosms resulted in the most rapid overall biodegradation rates. The selected design for the pilot test utilized three separate test plots, each about 30-ft wide and 60-ft long: plots GS1 and GS2 in the source area of the plume and plot GS3 in the downgradient area of the plume near the excavation trench. Each test plot had one injection well, one monitoring well upgradient from the injection point, and 12 surrounding monitoring wells in a grid to capture variable groundwater flow directions. Donor injections, which included a bromide tracer, were completed in October 2021, immediately following baseline sampling, and the WBC-2 culture was injected about 40 days later, between November 30 and December 2, 2021. Performance monitoring conducted until December 2022 included hydrologic measurements and analyses of cVOCs, redox-sensitive constituents, dissolved organic carbon, bromide, volatile fatty acids, compound-specific carbon isotopes, and microbial communities. The biogeochemical data collected during the pilot tests in the three treatment plots showed that enhanced, complete reductive dechlorination of cVOCs in the groundwater was achieved in the GS1 and GS3 plots. In contrast, evidence of distribution of the injected amendments and subsequent biodegradation was limited in GS2, which was in an area of more heterogeneous soil lithology and low water table elevations. The molar composition of volatile organic compounds in the GS1 and GS3 plots was dominated by ethene in wells that were reached by the injected amendments by the end of the monitoring period. In the GS1 and GS3 plots, similar patterns were observed of cVOC concentrations decreasing to near detection levels, or below, at some wells sampled in July and October 2022, whereas ethene became dominant and indicated sustained complete reductive dechlorination. Baseline cVOC concentrations were more than a factor of 10 higher in the groundwater in the GS1 plot than in GS3, but no apparent inhibition of complete dechlorination occurred. As expected from the initial pre-design site data and the laboratory experiments, enhanced dissolution of residual DNAPL coupled to biodegradation was evident in the GS1 plot, where a marked increase in dichloroethene (DCE) above the initial baseline and upgradient TCE and DCE concentrations occurred. DCE concentrations subsequently declined where DNAPL dissolution was evident, concurrent with production of vinyl chloride and then predominantly ethene. Thus, overall biodegradation rates outpaced the DNAPL dissolution and desorption and DCE production in the source area. This success in complete degradation to predominantly ethene was achieved even in areas where the DCE concentrations reached a maximum of about 30,000 μg/L. Compound specific isotope analysis of carbon in TCE, cisDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride was conducted to provide another line of evidence of the occurrence and extent of anaerobic biodegradation. Along a flow path in each plot that was affected by the injected amendments, carbon isotopes in the TCE and daughter cVOCs in the groundwater became isotopically heavier, indicating biodegradation. Enhanced biodegradation rates calculated from the field tests in GS1 and GS3 showed half-lives of 36.9–75.3 days for DCE degradation and 9.48–38.5 days for ethene production. Notably, these ethene production rates calculated from the field tests are consistent with the results of WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms amended with either lactate or vegetable oil, which had half-lives for total organic chlorine removal that ranged from 11 to 15 days. These rates indicated rapid enhanced biodegradation, which is promising for application of a full-scale bioremediation remedy. Ultimately, however, the mass of residual or sorbed TCE in the aquifer that remains accessible for dissolution and biodegradation would likely control the time required for a full-scale bioremediation effort to achieve performance goals for TCE and cisDCE specified in the Record of Decision for Site K. The field pilot tests showed that the relatively low hydraulic head gradients and temporal changes in groundwater flow directions in the shallow aquifer would add complexity to a full-scale bioremediation effort. The radius of influence (ROI) at GS1 and GS3 (16.3 ft and 12.7 ft, respectively) were close to the design ROI of 15 ft. The estimated ROI at GS2 was about four times the design ROI, but may be less reliable at this location owing to groundwater flow direction. In addition, the low temperatures following WBC-2 injection in late November to early December 2021, in combination with the low hydraulic head gradients, were probably major factors in the delay observed before the onset of enhanced biodegradation following injection of the culture. Additional test injections could be beneficial to optimize the timing of donor and culture injections with the variable temperatures and hydraulic head in the shallow aquifer.

Minnesota

Deep structure of Siletzia in the Puget Lowland: Imaging an obducted plateau and accretionary thrust belt with potential fields

Detailed understanding of crustal components and tectonic history of forearcs is important due to their geological complexity and high seismic hazard. The principal component of the Cascadia forearc is Siletzia, a composite basaltic terrane of oceanic origin. Much is known about the lithology and age of the province. However, glacial sediments blanketing the Puget Lowland obscure its lateral extent and internal structure, hindering our ability to fully understand its tectonic history and its influence on modern deformation. In this study, we apply map-view interpretation and two-dimensional modeling of aeromagnetic and gravity data to the magnetically stratified Siletzia terrane revealing its internal structure and characterizing its eastern boundary. These analyses suggest the contact between Siletzia (Crescent Formation) and the Eocene accretionary prism trends northward under Lake Washington. North of Seattle, this boundary dips east where it crosses the Kingston arch, whereas south of Seattle the contact dips west where it crosses the Seattle uplift (SU). This westward dip is opposite the dip of the Eocene subduction interface, implying obduction of Siletzia upper crust at this southern location. Elongate pairs of high and low magnetic anomalies over the SU suggest imbrication of steeply-dipping, deeply rooted slices of Crescent Formation within Siletzia. We hypothesize these features result from duplication of Crescent Formation in an accretionary fold-thrust belt during the Eocene. The active Seattle fault divides this Eocene fold-thrust belt into two zones with different structural trends and opposite frontal ramp dips, suggesting the Seattle fault may have originated as a tear fault during accretion.

Washington

Iodine-129 in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 2021–22

Between the 1950s and 1980s, wastewater generated at the Idaho National Laboratory contained Iodine-129 ( 129 I); this wastewater was discharged directly into the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP) aquifer through a deep disposal well, unlined infiltration ponds, or leaked from distribution systems below industrial facilities. During 2021–22, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy and the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Idaho National Laboratory Oversight Program, collected groundwater samples from 64 monitoring wells in the ESRP aquifer, 6 of which are part of a multilevel monitoring system, to determine the concentration of 129 I in the groundwater. These samples were analyzed by accelerator mass spectrometry as part of a long-term ongoing study to track trends and occurrences of this carcinogenic, long-lived radionuclide in the environment. Concentrations ranged from slightly above the locally determined background concentration of 5.4×10 −6 picocuries per liter, to just below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s maximum contaminant level of 1 picocurie per liter. Discharge of wastewater containing 129 I has been discontinued to the aquifer, and long-term trends from a subset (n=15) of sampled wells show decreasing 129 I concentrations over the last three decades. Concentrations of 129 I in groundwater from monitoring wells near facilities at the Idaho National Laboratory are affected by episodic recharge from an ephemeral surface-water source and by the fracture-flow dominated hydrologic regime in the ESRP aquifer. The spatially focused sampling effort has also identified a low-level 129 I plume that affects long-term water quality near and downgradient from the Advanced Test Reactor Complex in the southwestern part of the facility that had not been clearly defined in previous sampling efforts, although the definition of the plume is somewhat limited by available data.

Idaho

A geospatial analysis of water-quality threats from orphan wells in principal and secondary aquifers of the United States

Throughout the history of oil and gas production in the United States, millions of wells have been drilled for exploration and energy production. Hundreds of thousands of unplugged wells are no longer actively producing and are currently under orphan status, with no responsible party obligated for plugging. Orphan wells can pose threats to water resources by providing pathways for contaminants such as hydrocarbons and brines to migrate into water-supply aquifers. In this study, we investigate the potential threats to groundwater resources posed by orphan wells at the national scale. Water-quality data is extremely sparse in relation to orphan wells nationally and may not be suitable for identifying contamination from oil and gas development. We used geospatial and statistical methods to evaluate which principal and secondary aquifer systems may be most susceptible to contamination from orphan wells. Analysis involved three sets of susceptibility factors including: 1) factors related to the number and density of orphan wells; 2) factors that can threaten well integrity and contribute to transport of contaminants; and 3) factors related to groundwater withdrawal rates and the affected populations/communities in the event of water quality disturbances. From a dataset of 117,672 documented orphan wells, 64,203 fall within a principal aquifer system, while the remainder fall within a secondary aquifer system. By assessing the combination of well integrity and hydrogeologic factors within these aquifer systems, five groupings of principal aquifers were identified, where groups ranged from aquifer systems with high numbers of orphan wells, multiple well integrity threats and high withdrawals, to aquifers with a relatively low number of orphan wells, limited well integrity threats and minimal water use. Three regions of the country emerge containing aquifers with higher susceptibility to contamination from orphan oil and gas wells. These regions include 1) The Appalachian Basin (including the Pennsylvanian Aquifer System), 2) The Gulf Coast Aquifers (including the Coastal Lowlands Aquifer system) and 3) The California Aquifers (including the California Coastal Basin Aquifer system). This work is the first multivariate geospatial investigation of orphan wells and groundwater resources on a national scale, and sheds light on which aquifers are most susceptible to groundwater contamination from orphan wells.

Science of the Total Environment

Comparisons of shoreline positions from satellite-derived and traditional field- and remote-sensing techniques

Satellite-derived shorelines (SDS) have the potential to help researchers answer critical coastal science questions and support work to predict coastal change by filling in the spatial and temporal gaps present in current field-based and remote-sensing data collection methods. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comparison analyses of traditionally sourced shorelines and SDS in diverse coastal landscapes to determine how SDS could be used in ongoing and future work across varied coastal environments and provided some initial findings that could be used for implementation. Using CoastSeg, a browser-based program for SDS detection and mapping, SDS for the period 1984–2023 for multiple locations across the United States were compared to shoreline positions from traditionally sourced shoreline data. In this report, the authors present these comparisons alongside lessons learned and challenges encountered when building SDS workflows in different coastal locations. Results show that individual SDS have larger uncertainty and yet produced similar linear trends to sparser, traditionally sourced shoreline data; because SDS methods provide orders of magnitude more data than traditional shoreline-detection methods, they can be used to evaluate shoreline behaviors. Refining average scalar slopes used in tidal corrections did not result in substantial decreases in uncertainty. Using lessons from this work to outline needs for regional implementation, initial setup time would be considerable, being on the order of weeks. However, once complete, shoreline detections and analyses are fast (on the order of minutes to hours) and achievable using a desktop computer.

Alaska, Florida, Massachusetts, Washington

Tracking diagenetic alteration of magnetic susceptibility in thrust ridge and slope basin sediments of the Cascadia margin (ODP Sites 1249 and 1252; IODP Site U1325)

We investigated sediment core records from the Cascadia Margin (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1249 and 1252 at Hydrate Ridge; Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1325 offshore Vancouver Island) using a Zr/Rb heavy mineral proxy from X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning to identify intervals of primary detrital magnetic susceptibility (κ) and predict intervals where diagenesis caused magnetite dissolution by hydrogen sulfide. We also measured total sulfur (TS) content, grain size distributions, total organic carbon (TOC) content, and the magnetic mineral assemblage to further constrain the role of diagenesis on κ. Understanding how κ can be used to better characterize the varied effects of detrital and diagenetic signals in marine settings is important for understanding biogeochemical cycling and records of paleoenvironmental change. The upper 100 m of slope basin Site 1252 contains multiple intervals (> 90 m total) of decreased κ correlated with elevated TS content, consistent with dissolution of magnetite and precipitation of pyrite, iron monosulfides, and/or elemental sulfur. Similarly at the other slope basin site, Site U1325, κ is lower and TS is elevated in the interval between 24 and 51 mbsf, due to sulfide formation. At both slope basin sites, these low κ intervals correspond with high TOC, suggesting the possibility that organoclastic sulfate reduction (OSR) is likely a major driver of diagenetic alteration of κ at these sites. High TS:TOC ratios at Site U1325 suggests anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) during sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) migration may have contributed to alteration of κ. In contrast, within the upper 90 m of Site 1249, a methane seep site at the summit of Hydrate Ridge, κ is almost entirely altered by diagenetic processes, with much of the low κ explained by a high degree of iron sulfide formation, while some intervals are affected by precipitation of magnetic iron sulfides that maintain or even increase κ. The presence of abundant methane seepage and gas hydrate as well as chemosynthetic seafloor fauna at this site, suggests that sulfide is released to the water column and AOM, rather than OSR, drives diagenetic alteration of κ at this site. Overall, the slope basin sites show episodic variation of κ that is influenced by TOC content, likely driven by changes in marine primary productivity and sedimentation rate, while the seep site shows consistently altered κ with lower TS content and no correlation with TOC. Methane seep environments likely experience loss of hydrogen sulfide to the water column and oxidation of hydrogen sulfide by seafloor seep fauna, which limits the amount of solid phase sulfur (pyrite, iron monosulfides, elemental sulfur) that can be precipitated within the sediments. In contrast, the migration of a buried SMTZ at slope basin sites results in enhanced sulfur precipitation within the sediments. This integrated magnetic and geochemical approach reveals the diagenetic production pathway and residence time of sulfide with the sediment column ultimately controls the style and degree of diagenetic loss of κ in marine sediments. This approach works best in environments with unaltered reference intervals/sites, consistent magnetic mineralogy, and clay-to-silt grain sizes.

Cascadia margin, Pacific Ocean

Natural attenuation of chlorinated volatile organic compounds in ground water at Area 6, Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, Washington

Natural attenuation is a viable alternative to pump and treat for meeting remediation objectives in the vicinity of the southern contaminant plume. The combination of historically low contaminant concentrations in ground water, a landfill cap that limits source area contributions, favorable conditions for degradation of VC, and a relatively long downgradient distance to potential receptors are all favorable for natural attenuation as a remediation alternative. Natural attenuation could effectively meet all but one remediation goal that extraction wells PW- 2, PW-4, PW-6, PW-7, PW-8 and PW-9 are currently being employed to meet. The goal of preventing migration of all VC across the site boundary could not be met by natural attenuation. Some VC would migrate south of the Navy boundary, but the potential for subsequent VC mineralization downgradient of the base and the existing institutional controls would result in minimal additional risk from using natural attenuation. In the western contaminant plume natural attenuation is not currently a viable alternative to pump and treat for meeting remediation objectives. There is a possibility that rates for reductive dechlorination of TCE and TCA could increase substantially if the plume was allowed to migrate beneath the Oak Harbor landfill, but there are not enough data to be certain of such an increase. TCA and TCE concentrations at the leading edge of the western plume need to be reduced to at least 25 and 40 µg/L, respectively, to be protective of potential downgradient receptors. Source area TCA and TCE concentrations have decreased substantially over the past ten years, and the extraction wells PW-3 and PW-5 in particular are removing a significant mass of contaminants from ground water, so natural attenuation may be a viable alternative for the western plume in the future. There would be some possible side benefits of using natural attenuation as an alternative to pump and treat in the southern contaminant plume. The first would be that the resulting decrease in the amount of treated water that would need to be recharged in the swale north of the landfill would result in less off-base migration of contamination across the western site boundary. The second benefit would be a substantial reduction in the amount of dissolved iron and manganese being extracted from the shallow aquifer and run through the treatment system. Removing that source of operation and maintenance problems would result in more effective containment and removal of contamination in the western contaminant plume. The most critical data gap identified in this evaluation is the paucity of contaminant chemistry information downgradient of the Navy boundary in the vicinity of the southern contaminant plume. Without such data, the behavior of the plume and the protectiveness of natural attenuation to downgradient receptors cannot be verified, and field attenuation rates for VC cannot be determined directly. The existing long-term monitoring plan would need to be reviewed and revised if natural attenuation is selected as a remedy for the contamination in the southern plume. In particular, additional performance monitoring wells may be required downgradient of the property.

Washington

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Silurian aquifer, eastern Iowa, 2020–45

The Silurian aquifer is an important water source for municipalities, industry, and rural households and communities in eastern Iowa, including Johnson County. Increasing demand for groundwater from the aquifer indicated that analytical tools may be beneficial to quantify groundwater resources and inform water-management decisions for the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Johnson County Board of Supervisors, developed conceptual and numerical groundwater models to simulate water levels in the Silurian aquifer, determine groundwater budgets, and forecast changes in groundwater levels through 2045. A MODFLOW numerical model was constructed to match water levels for 2020 through 2022. Model performance was assessed by comparing simulated and observed water-level hydrographs at several pumping and monitoring wells. Hydrograph comparison indicates that the model simulates water levels accurately at monitoring wells that are not near areas of pumping and generally overpredicts water levels near pumping wells, while accurately simulating the drawdown trend over time at pumping wells. This transient model framework was then used to predict water levels through 2045 in a scenario of moderate drought and increased groundwater withdrawals. Results from the predictive model indicate as much as 13 meters of additional drawdown in 2045 from 2020 water levels in the area of pumping wells.

Iowa

Widespread occurrence of former anhydrite phenocrysts in Laramide-age magmas related to porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization at Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro, New Mexico, USA

Reports of magmatic anhydrite are relatively rare, with only ~30 occurrences documented worldwide so far. However, magmatic anhydrite saturation is difficult to recognize because anhydrite decomposes rapidly in near-surface environments. In most cases, only anhydrite inclusions shielded within other phenocryst phases were able to survive. Alternatively, since anhydrite phenocrysts preserved in fresh volcanic rocks are characteristically intergrown with apatite phenocrysts, the former presence of anhydrite phenocrysts can be recognized based on the occurrence of lath-shaped cavities that show a strong spatial association with apatite phenocrysts. These cavities can be either empty or filled with low-temperature, secondary minerals such as zeolites, carbonates, or microcrystalline silica. A systematic search for the occurrence of such cavities, combined with optical and Raman-spectroscopic identification of anhydrite inclusions preserved within apatite, hornblende and quartz phenocrysts, demonstrates that most of the Laramide-age magmas associated with the Santa Rita and Hanover-Fierro porphyry-skarn Cu (Zn, Mo, Au, Pb) deposits were saturated in magmatic anhydrite. The anhydrite typically coexisted with monosulfide solid solution (MSS), suggesting oxygen fugacities of ~2.0±0.5 log units above the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer. The magmas range from andesitic to rhyodacitic in composition, and from shortly pre-mineralization (~61 Ma) to shortly post-mineralization (~57 Ma) in age. In three samples with particularly well-recognizable former anhydrite phenocrysts, their modal abundance could be quantified based on high-resolution scans of polished hand specimens. The observed modal anhydrite abundances of 0.63–1.8 vol% translate into minimum magma sulfur contents of 0.20–0.56 wt% S. The highest sulfur content of 0.56 wt% S is difficult to reconcile with available anhydrite solubility models, but it could be reproduced in an anhydrite solubility experiment performed at 950 °C and 1.15 GPa on a natural latite containing 13.1 wt% dissolved H2O. The sample with the second-highest sulfur content of 0.26 wt% S requires ~10 wt% H2O in the silicate melt, and, consequently, a minimum pressure of ~0.5 GPa. Taken together, the results suggest that the magmas of the Central Mining District were extremely hydrous and thus originated from great depth. Indeed, their major element compositions and reconstructed H2O and S contents agree well with experimentally observed and numerically predicted compositions of residual silicate melts after 50–70 wt% crystallization of ordinary arc basalts at high pressure and high oxygen fugacities.

New Mexico

Storage timescales and the crystal growth history recorded in the layered reservoir of the Unit 3 Kulanaokuaiki Tephra Member of the Uēkahuna Ash from Kīlauea volcano

The Kulanaokuaiki Tephra Unit 3 (900 C.E.) was a subplinian basaltic scoria eruption, the largest known to have occurred at Kīlauea’s summit. The initiation mechanism and cause(s) of this highly hazardous eruption remain poorly understood, particularly as this style of activity has not been observed in the modern period. We use olivine diffusion timescales from Fe-Mg and lithium zoning to assess magma storage timescales and evaluate evidence for mixing prior to eruption. Of the 200 crystals assessed, 55% are normally zoned for forsterite and 45% are non-zoned. Zoned crystals (> 1 mm) ( n = 96) have average compositions of Fo 89 cores and Fo 81 rims, while small crystals 0.5–1 mm ( n = 14) have Fo 85 cores and Fo 82 rims. Modeled Fo diffusion timescales range from < 1 to 12.6 years (median of 3.0 years). Lithium maps in 32 of the forsterite-zoned crystals reveal a variety of lithium zoning types, most of which we attribute to crystal growth. Many lithium profiles are coupled to phosphorus within the outer ~ 100 μm of the crystal ( n = 17), reflecting growth processes and precluding their use for diffusion studies. Overall, our Unit 3 olivine dataset displays no evidence of magmatic priming shortly prior to eruption, unlike prior observations for the basaltic subplinian eruption of the Keanakāko‘i Tephra Unit E (1650 C.E.). Thus, explosive eruption magmas may be stored for considerably longer than previously thought, and magmatic priming is not a necessary precursor for Kīlauea’s explosive eruptions. We hypothesize that gas-driven filter pressing from crystallization of microlites and macrocrysts in the reservoir slurry contributed to the explosivity of the Unit 3 eruption.

Hawaii

2025 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands: Overview of model and hazard results

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI). The first version of the PRVI NSHM was released in 2003, and therefore this 2025 update includes over 20 years of new geologic, geophysical, and engineering data, methods, and models. Updates follow similar efforts performed in the recent 2023 50-state NSHM. However, this is the first NSHM in which we: (1) apply an inversion methodology to subduction interface fault sources in the earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) model; (2) develop scaled backbone median ground-motion models and independent aleatory variability models that are applied in the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model; and (3) calculate epistemic uncertainty related to alternative scenarios in the ERF and GMC models for all grid points in the study region. Long-term time-independent mean hazard calculations were performed for peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudospectral acceleration at 21 spectral periods from 0.01- to 10.0-s, for eight National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program site conditions ranging from V S30 = 150 to 1500 m/s, and for 2%, 5%, and 10% in 50-year probabilities of exceedance (return periods of 2475, 975, and 475 years, respectively). Epistemic uncertainty, in the form of selected percentiles, is also provided for a suite of test sites and all grid points in the study region for limited periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. Selected results, including comparisons with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, are shown and discussed for selected periods, site conditions, and probabilities of exceedance. When comparing the 2025 PRVI NSHM with the 2003 PRVI NSHM, hazard is generally higher at shorter periods and lower at longer periods, as a result of updates in both ERF and GMC models. The 2025 PRVI NSHM is applicable for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

Geochemistry of quartz and fluid inclusions associated with gold, tungsten, and antimony in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, Idaho

Deposits in the historic Stibnite-Yellow Pine district in east-central Idaho were mined for Ag, Au, Hg, Sb, and W. Ore is hosted in breccia and fault zones along NE-striking faults that transect the Atlanta lobe of the Late Cretaceous Idaho batholith and metamorphosed Neoproterozoic to lower Paleozoic rocks. Geochronological studies have delineated five superimposed and zoned hydrothermal events in the mining district which range in age from Late Cretaceous to the Eocene. They formed the following consecutive assemblages: (1) vein and disseminated pre-ore milky quartz (± calcite), muscovite, and brassy pyrite with minor molybdenite and base metal sulfides; (2) vein and disseminated quartz, calcite, sericite, auriferous-pyrite, and arsenopyrite; (3) potassium feldspar, quartz, dolomite, and calcite with vein and disseminated scheelite ± pyrite and arsenopyrite; (4) Au-Ag veins that contain adularia; and (5) breccia, vein, and disseminated quartz, calcite, and stibnite with minor Ag sulfosalts and distal zones of cinnabar and realgar at Fern and Hermes mines. In this study, the pressure, temperature, and composition of ore-forming fluids were measured in Au-, W-, and Sb-bearing samples collected from drill core and surface exposures. Using optical petrography, scanning electron microscopy cathodoluminescence (SEM-CL) and electron microprobe cathodoluminescence (EMPA-CL) imaging, as well as electron microprobe (EMP) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry trace element analyses, four major overprinting generations of hydrothermal quartz are defined. Fluid inclusion assemblages (FIAs) in each generation of quartz were characterized by microthermometry and laser Raman spectroscopy. Quartz and fluid inclusion paragenesis are as follows: (Qi) altered and overprinted Qi with no coeval FIAs that formed before or during event 1; (Q1) early veins as well as disseminated quartz with dull gray SEM-CL and H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 281° to 358°C and 1346 to 1789 bar during event 2 (Au); (Q2) vein and disseminated quartz, often euhedral, with H 2 O-NaCl ± CO 2 ± CH 4 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 183° to 213°C and 72 to 602 bar during event 3 (W); and (Q3) euhedral and disseminated quartz with H 2 O-NaCl FIAs that formed at minimum temperature and pressures of 156° to 161°C and 5 to 6 bar during event 5 (Sb). Stibnite hosts H 2 O-NaCl FIAs trapped at minimum temperatures and pressures of 150° to 189°C and 5 to 12 bar that are similar to those of Q3-hosted FIAs. The quartz paragenetic history in the district follows a progressive temporal path from Tienriched quartz deposited by a relatively deep and higher temperature aqueous-carbonic fluid to a Li, Al, and Sb enriched quartz precipitated from a lower temperature aqueous fluid. Gases in fluid inclusion extracts from ore and gangue minerals were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Noble gas isotope analysis of fluid inclusion extracts revealed three signatures. Pre-ore Qi has R/R A (the isotopic ratio of the sample 3 He/ 4 He to atmospheric 3 He/ 4 He (1.384 × 10 −6 )) values that reflect the composition of the crustal melt-derived Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith. Quartz (Q1) and auriferous arsenian pyrite of hydrothermal event 2 have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that plot along the air-crust mixing line, and these gases were likely introduced by metamorphic fluids derived from metasedimentary rocks. Stibnite with associated quartz (Q3 ± Q2) have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from the air-crust mixing line to the air-mantle mixing line, showing a shift from a crustal signature to an overprinting mantle signature. Late calcite has 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from air toward the mantle end member, which suggests that magmatic volatiles condensed into meteoric groundwater late in the paragenesis. A mantle volatile source is also supported by high 20 Ne/ 22 Ne ratios. The Stibnite-Yellow Pine district is similar to other Au-W-Sb districts around the world in ore fluid chemistries, with late-stage stibnite being a product of cooling. The fluid pressure-temperature-composition (P-T-X) estimates and the crustal source of He during hydrothermal event 2 gold mineralization are characteristic of orogenic Au deposits, and the observed inclusion reequilibration textures indicate that trapped fluid inclusions were deformed during transitions between the brittle-ductile environment. Scheelite was deposited during event 3 with Q2 quartz and is overgrown by Q3 quartz and stibnite. Our interpretation of the quartz texture, chemistry, and fluid inclusion P-T-X data suggest that Au, W, and Sb mineralization occurred as hydrothermal fluids evolved from H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 at >300°C and depths of ~4 to 6 km near the ductile to brittle transition to H 2 O-NaCl at ~150°C and epithermal depths as the Idaho batholith was exhumed. Geochronology indicates that from the Late Cretaceous to early Eocene, overprinting hydrothermal events formed deep orogenic Au, intermediate W, and shallow epithermal Au-Ag and Sb. Without comprehensive geochronologic constraints, our fluid inclusion data and textural observations could be interpreted as a single evolving hydrothermal system, as has been done in many other mining districts with similar mineralization.

Idaho

Flood-inundation maps for Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, 2025

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 3.1-mile reach of Río de la Plata in and near Comerío, Puerto Rico, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Water-surface profiles were computed for the stream reach by using a one-dimensional steady-state step-backwater model. The model was calibrated to the current (2025) stage-streamflow relation (rating curve 11.0) for the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de la Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The resulting hydraulic model was then used to compute 16 water-surface profiles for water levels (flood stages) ranging from 10.00 to 40.00 feet at the streamgage and ranging from “action stage” to above “major flood stage” as reported by the National Weather Service. The 40.00-foot stage was selected because it exceeds the peak stage of 34.86 ft recorded during Hurricane Maria at the USGS streamgage 50043800, Río de Plata at Comerío, Puerto Rico. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used in combination with a digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data to map the inundated areas associated with each flood profile. The flood-inundation maps and the supporting hydraulic model produced by this study can be used by emergency managers and local officials to assess flood mitigation strategies and to define flood hazard areas to help protect life and property, to coordinate flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, and to aid post-flood recovery efforts.

Comerio

Paleoproterozoic vein graphite mineralization caused by decarbonation in the Ruby Range, Montana, USA

Hydrothermal graphite veins are a possible source for modern battery materials and require better understanding of their carbon source(s) and absolute timing to develop mapable criteria for exploration models. We present new observations of graphite vein and alteration paragenesis and U-Pb LA-ICP-MS titanite age data from the Ruby prospect, Montana, USA, that constrain mineralization timing and source. The graphite veins cut high-temperature metamorphic rocks of the lower Christensen Range suite and are associated with intense diopside (Di0.69Hd0.27Jo0.04) alteration of marble. The oldest titanite ages in fresh marble and partially altered calc-silicate gneiss are ca. 2,500 – 2,450 Ma, show elevated REE values, and Eu/Eu* <1.5, consistent with growth during early regional metamorphism. Titanite in diopside-graphite alteration, interpreted as part of the hydrothermal vein-forming episode, cluster around 1,750 Ma, are characterized by lower REE values, and show Eu/Eu* >2; suggesting a low fO 2 fluid generated from metamorphism during the Big Sky orogeny. Our paragenetic observations and titanite ages indicate graphite vein formation via skarnoid decarbonation reactions in marble late in regional orogenesis. Granulite-facies, carbonate-bearing, supracrustal rock terranes are thus favorable for hydrothermal graphite vein deposits.

Montana

Deep groundwater total dissolved solids mapping in the Dakota Group, Williston Basin, USA

Growing concern about the quantity of available freshwater around the world has led to interest in surveying groundwater total dissolved solids (TDS) below water well depths. Deep TDS has not been systematically mapped, and there is much to learn about the distribution and controls on deeper groundwater. In sedimentary basins across the United States, groundwater resources often overlie hydrocarbon resources, providing an opportunity to use borehole geophysical data collected for hydrocarbons to characterize groundwater and pore space resources. This study adapts a recently developed subsurface geostatistical and geophysical modeling approach to continuously map groundwater TDS, porosity, and temperature in the Dakota Group of the Williston Basin—an undercharacterized regional aquifer system overlying deeper hydrocarbon reservoirs. Groundwater TDS in the Dakota Group ranges from approximately 4800 to 26,900 mg/L. TDS patterns are stratified with higher TDS in the lower and upper Dakota Group, and relatively lower TDS in the middle Dakota Group. The lower TDS in the middle zone may represent a preferential regional flow path for lower-TDS meteoric recharge from the west. The alternating pattern of TDS may also be evidence of higher-TDS inflows into the Dakota Group from underlying and potentially from overlying aquifers. Porosity is lower near the center of the Williston Basin and tends to be higher to the east, which may be related to grain size distributions. The new regional TDS and porosity modeling serves as a quantitative reference for water users and provides supporting evidence for hypotheses on Dakota Group recharge.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Low-sulfidation epithermal deposits of the central Basin and Range Province, USA

The Basin and Range Province is host to many important low-sulfidation epithermal deposits. Within this broad zone of extension, epithermal deposits are hosted by specific areas of Miocene and younger bimodal volcanism. In northern Nevada, rifting and related volcanic activity occurred in response to thermal bulging during the development of the Yellowstone hotspot. The Colorado River Extensional Corridor in southern Nevada, adjoining eastern California and northwestern Arizona, is a major zone of Miocene crustal extension formed during the transformation of the western margin of North America from a convergent to a transform plate boundary. The style of mineralization in the low-sulfidation epithermal deposits in these areas is strongly controlled by the nature of the volcanic successions. Highgrade, low-tonnage deposits are commonly found in flow-dominated volcanic successions where ore deposition occurred through short-lived periods of fluid flashing. In contrast, low-grade, large-tonnage deposits are more commonly located in clastic-dominated successions where fluid infiltration of the permeable hosts and cooling predominated.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon