SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Ecological Processes”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources

USGS2006

Data collection network to support ecosystem forecasting for the Barataria Basin - Mississippi River domain

Ecosystem forecasting is limited by a number of uncertainties including inadequate initialization information, unknown boundary conditions, inaccurate model physics and atmospheric forcing functions, and inadequate algorithm development of geomorphic and ecological responses to hydrodynamic and geophysical processes. Monitoring can help reduce these uncertainties by providing numerical information on those variables that can improve simulation capabilities. A data collection network was designed for the Mississippi River, south of Tarbert Landing, Ms. to Venice, La., and for the inland and nearshore waters of Barataria Basin, La. The network considered existing monitoring efforts that effectively link oceanographic and water quality observations to system drivers to support ecosystem hindcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting capabilities. The design was driven by the diverse needs of the modeling community and utilized questionnaire surveys, workshops, and web- based applications to inventory past and present modeling applications, domains, and attributes. The use of existing monitoring stations, including variables measured and frequency of data collection, were also considered, as well as recommendations on where new monitoring stations should be located, what types of data should be collected, and at what temporal frequency. Compiled databases are presented as a series of GIS layers to represent overlap between existing and requested stations, and priorities are established for either maintaining or augmenting existing stations or deploying new stations. An optimization plan will be prepared from the results of this study that will provide a rationale for the ecosystem forecasting data collection network that includes a description of existing monitoring programs to support ecosystem forecasting and a set of justifiable locations for "megastations" that meet the needs of the modeling and assessment communities.

Louisiana↗

USGS2010

Water quality and ecological condition of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, June 2005 through December 2008

To identify the sources of selected constituents in urban streams and better understand processes affecting water quality and their effects on the ecological condition of urban streams and the Little Blue River in Independence, Missouri the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Independence Water Pollution Control Department initiated a study in June 2005 to characterize water quality and evaluate the ecological condition of streams within Independence. Base-flow and stormflow samples collected from five sites within Independence, from June 2005 to December 2008, were used to characterize the physical, chemical, and biologic effects of storm runoff on the water quality in Independence streams and the Little Blue River. The streams draining Independence-Rock Creek, Sugar Creek, Mill Creek, Fire Prairie Creek, and the Little Blue River-drain to the north and the Missouri River. Two small predominantly urban streams, Crackerneck Creek [12.9-square kilometer (km2) basin] and Spring Branch Creek (25.4-km2 basin), were monitored that enter into the Little Blue River between upstream and downstream monitoring sites. The Little Blue River above the upstream site is regulated by several reservoirs, but streamflow is largely uncontrolled. The Little Blue River Basin encompasses 585 km2 with about 168 km2 or 29 percent of the basin lying within the city limits of Independence. Water-quality samples also were collected for Rock Creek (24.1-km2 basin) that drains the western part of Independence. Data collection included streamflow, physical properties, dissolved oxygen, chloride, metals, nutrients, common organic micro-constituents, and fecal indicator bacteria. Benthic macroinvertebrate community surveys and habitat assessments were conducted to establish a baseline for evaluating the ecological condition and health of streams within Independence. Additional dry-weather screenings during base flow of all streams draining Independence were conducted to identify point-source discharges and other sources of potential contamination. Regression models were used to estimate continuous and annual flow-weighted concentrations, loadings, and yields for chloride, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and Escherichia coli bacteria densities. Base-flow and stormflow water-quality samples were collected at five sites within Independence. Base-flow samples for Rock Creek and two tributary streams to the Little Blue River exceeded recommended U.S. Environmental Protection Agency standards for the protection of aquatic life for total nitrogen and total phosphorus in about 90 percent of samples, whereas samples collected at two Little Blue River sites exceeded both the total nitrogen and total phosphorus standards less often, about 30 percent of the time. Dry-weather screening identified a relatively small number (14.0 percent of all analyses) of potential point-source discharges for total chlorine, phenols, and anionic surfactants. Stormflow had larger median measured concentrations of total common organic micro-constituents than base flow. The four categories of common organic micro-constituents with the most total detections in stormflow were pesticides (100 percent), polyaromatic hydrocarbons and combustion by-products (99 percent), plastics (93 percent), and stimulants (91 percent). Most detections of common organic micro-constituents were less than 2 micrograms per liter. Median instantaneous Escherichia coli densities for stormflow samples showed a 21 percent increase measured at the downstream site on the Little Blue River from the sampled upstream site. Using microbial source-tracking methods, less than 30 percent of Escherichia coli bacteria in samples were identified as having human sources. Base-flow and stormflow data were used to develop regression equations with streamflow and continuous water-quality data to estimate daily concentrations, loads, and yields of various water-quality contaminants.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2007

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

An integrated path for spatial capture–recapture and animal movement modeling

Ecologists and conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial capture–recapture (SCR) and movement modeling to study animal populations. Historically, SCR has focused on population-level processes (e.g., vital rates, abundance, density, and distribution), whereas animal movement modeling has focused on the behavior of individuals (e.g., activity budgets, resource selection, migration). Even though animal movement is clearly a driver of population-level patterns and dynamics, technical and conceptual developments to date have not forged a firm link between the two fields. Instead, movement modeling has typically focused on the individual level without providing a coherent scaling from individual- to population-level processes, whereas SCR has typically focused on the population level while greatly simplifying the movement processes that give rise to the observations underlying these models. In our view, the integration of SCR and animal movement modeling has tremendous potential for allowing ecologists to scale up from individuals to populations and advancing the types of inferences that can be made at the intersection of population, movement, and landscape ecology. Properly accounting for complex animal movement processes can also potentially reduce bias in estimators of population-level parameters, thereby improving inferences that are critical for species conservation and management. This introductory article to the Special Feature reviews recent advances in SCR and animal movement modeling, establishes a common notation, highlights potential advantages of linking individual-level (Lagrangian) movements to population-level (Eulerian) processes, and outlines a general conceptual framework for the integration of movement and SCR models. We then identify important avenues for future research, including key challenges and potential pitfalls in the developments and applications that lie ahead.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Process, policy, and implementation of pool-wide drawdowns on the Upper Mississippi River: a promising approach for ecological restoration of large impounded rivers

The Upper Mississippi River (UMR) has been developed and subsequently managed for commercial navigation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). The navigation pools created by a series of lock and dams initially provided a complex of aquatic habitats that supported a variety of fish and wildlife. However, biological productivity declined as the pools aged. The River Resources Forum, an advisory body to the St. Paul District of the USACE, established a multiagency Water Level Management Task Force (WLMTF) to evaluate the potential of water level management to improve ecological function and restore the distribution and abundance of fish and wildlife habitat. The WLMTF identified several water level management options and concluded that summer growing season drawdowns at the pool scale offered the greatest potential to provide habitat benefits over a large area. Here we summarize the process followed to plan and implement pool-wide drawdowns on the UMR, including involvement of stakeholders in decision making, addressing requirements to modify reservoir operating plans, development and evaluation of drawdown alternatives, pool selection, establishment of a monitoring plan, interagency coordination, and a public information campaign. Three pool-wide drawdowns were implemented within the St. Paul District and deemed successful in providing ecological benefits without adversely affecting commercial navigation and recreational use of the pools. Insights are provided based on more than 17 years of experience in planning and implementing drawdowns on the UMR.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2015

Hydrological, water-quality, and ecological data for streams in Independence, Missouri, June 2005 through September 2013

Water-quality, hydrological, and ecological data collected from June 2005 through September 2013 from the Little Blue River and smaller streams within the City of Independence, Missouri, are presented in this report. These data were collected as a part of an ongoing cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Independence Water Pollution Control Department to characterize the water quality and ecological condition of Independence streams. The quantities, sources of selected constituents, and processes affecting water quality and aquatic life were evaluated to determine the resulting ecological condition of streams within Independence. Data collected for this study fulfill the municipal separate sewer system permit requirements for the City of Independence and can be used to provide a baseline with which city managers can determine the effectiveness of current (2014) and future best management practices within Independence. Continuous streamflow and water-quality data, collected during base flow and stormflow, included physical and chemical properties, inorganic constituents, common organic micro-constituents, pesticides in streambed sediment and surface water, fecal indicator bacteria and microbial source tracking data, and suspended sediment. Dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, water temperature, and turbidity data were measured continuously at seven sites within Independence. Base-flow and stormflow samples were collected at eight gaged and two ungaged sites. Fecal sources samples were collected for reference for microbial source tracking, and sewage influent samples were collected as additional source samples. Dry-weather screening was done on 11 basins within Independence to identify potential contaminant sources to the streams. Benthic macroinvertebrate community surveys and habitat assessments were done on 10 stream sites and 2 comparison sites outside the city. Sampling and laboratory procedures and quality-assurance and quality-control methods used in data collection for this study are described in this report.

Missouri↗

USGS2014

Tick control: Trapping, bio-control, host management and other alternative strategies

Biology of Ticks is the most comprehensive work on tick biology and tick-borne diseases. This second edition is a multi-authored work, featuring the research and analyses of renowned experts across the globe. Spanning two volumes, the book examines the systematics, biology, structure, ecological adaptations, evolution, genomics and the molecular processes that underpin the growth, development and survival of these important disease-transmitting parasites. Also discussed is the remarkable array of diseases transmitted (or caused) by ticks, as well as modern methods for their control. This book should serve as a modern reference for students, scientists, physicians, veterinarians and other specialists. Volume II includes chapters on the ecology of non-nidicolous and nidicolous ticks, genetics and genomics (including the genome of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis) and immunity, including host immune responses to tick feeding and tick-host interactions, as well as the tick's innate immune system that prevents and/or controls microbial infections. Six chapters cover in depth the many diseases caused by the major tick-borne pathogens, including tick-borne protozoa, viruses, rickettsiae of all types, other types of bacteria (e.g., the Lyme disease agent) and diseases related to tick paralytic agents and toxins. The remaining chapters are devoted to tick control using vaccines, acaricides, repellents, biocontrol, and, finally, techniques for breeding ticks in order to develop tick colonies for scientific study.

Book chapter↗

USGS2001

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2023

Future marsh evolution due to tidal changes induced by human adaptation to sea level rise

With sea level rise threatening coastal development, decision-makers are beginning to act by modifying shorelines. Previous research has shown that hardening or softening shorelines may change the tidal range under future sea level rise. Tidal range can also be changed by natural factors. Coastal marshes, which humans increasingly depend on for shoreline protection, are ecologically sensitive to tidal range. Therefore, it is critical to examine how changes in tidal range could influence marsh processes. A marsh accretion model was used to investigate the ecological response of a San Francisco Bay, California, USA marsh to multiple tidal range scenarios and sea level rise from 2010 to 2100. The scenarios include a baseline scenario with no shoreline modifications in the estuary, a shoreline hardening scenario that amplifies the tidal range, and 14 tidal range scenarios as a sensitivity analysis that span tidal amplification and reduction of the baseline scenario. The modeling results expose key tradeoffs to consider when planning for sea level rise. Compared to the baseline, the hardening scenario shows minor differences. However, further tidal amplification prolongs marsh survival but decreases Sarcocornia pacifica cover, an important species for certain threatened wildlife and an effective attenuator of wave energy. Conversely, tidal reduction precipitates marsh drowning but shows gains in Sarcocornia pacifica cover. These mixed impacts of tidal amplification and reduction shown by the model indicate potential tradeoffs in relation to marsh survival, habitat characteristics, and shoreline protection. This study suggests the need for a cross-sectoral, regional approach to sea level rise adaptation.

California↗

USGS2009

The ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards

The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water-resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user-defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a 'hydrologic foundation' of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current-condition flows from baseline-condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration-ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration-ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision-makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration-ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine-tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗

USGS2019

Evaluating barrier island characteristics and piping plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat availability along the U.S. Atlantic Coast—Geospatial approaches and methodology

Policy makers, individuals from government agencies, and natural resource managers face increasing demands to manage coastal areas in a way that meets economic, social, and ecological needs as sea levels rise. Scientific knowledge of how coastal processes drive beach and barrier island changes and how those changes affect habitat use can support decision makers as they balance sometimes conflicting human and ecological needs. However, uncertainties in the knowledge of the cumulative results of coastal processes make it challenging to forecast specific changes for a particular location and time. The U.S. Geological Survey is developing tools for identifying and forecasting barrier island characteristics as well as suitable coastal habitats for species of concern (such as piping plovers, Charadrius melodus ) given ongoing sea-level rise. As part of this effort, we use three Bayesian networks to calculate probabilities of shoreline change rates, changes in barrier island biogeomorphic characteristics, and piping plover habitat availability, which together forecast the effects of different sea-level-rise rates and storm regimes. This report details the methodology used to derive geospatial biogeomorphic datasets that are used as inputs for two of these Bayesian networks, which forecast barrier island geomorphology and piping plover habitat availability at sites along the U.S. Atlantic coast (Maine to North Carolina). Further information about the project, including specific study sites, can be found at https://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/beach-dependent-shorebirds/ .

Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, North↗

USGS2021

Towards an urgent yet deliberate conservation strategy: Sustaining social-ecological systems in rangelands of the Northern Great Plains, Montana

Urgency and deliberateness are often at odds when executing conservation projects, especially as the scale and complexity of objectives increases. The pace of environmental degradation supports immediate and measurable action. However, best practices for adaptive governance and building resilient social-ecological systems call for more deliberate efforts and participatory processes, which can be slow. We explore conflicts between urgency and deliberateness and the potential for their reconciliation through a case study of the challenges of conserving native rangelands in North America’s Northern Great Plains, an ecoregion targeted for global conservation initiatives. This region is undergoing a significant social-ecological transition, which underscores a need to rethink conservation strategies in light of the social-ecological system dynamics and potential future trajectories. Based on a structured narrative literature review process and iterative engagement with key regional stakeholders, we identify three interrelated factors critical to the system’s future outcomes that illustrate system complexity as well as trade-offs between urgent and deliberate action and unilateral and multilateral approaches to conservation: (1) influences of land management on biodiversity, (2) economic restructuring and shifting land use priorities, and (3) changing climate and disturbance regimes. We identify key gaps in the literature for each factor and across the factors—an effort that informs our call for research and practice agendas that address uncertainty and complexity at regional scales through more inclusive and future-oriented approaches.

Montana↗

USGS2014

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2006

Ecological consequences of changing hydrological conditions in wetland forests of coastal Louisiana

Large-scale and localized alterations of processes affecting deltaic coastal wetlands have caused the complete loss of some coastal wetland forests and reduced the productivity and vigor of many areas in coastal Louisiana. This loss and degradation threatens ecosystem functions and the services they provide. This paper summarizes ecological relationships controlled by hydrological processes in coastal wetland forests of the Mississippi River delta and presents two case studies that illustrate the complexity of assessing hydrological control on swamp forest establishment and growth. Productivity of overstory trees has been affected by these changes, but the first case study illustrates that the relationship between flooding and growth may be site-specific. An important effect of increased flooding has been to reduce regeneration of swamp forest trees. The second case study is an outline of the kind of hydrological analysis required to assess probability of regeneration success.

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Predictive models are indeed useful for causal inference

The subject of investigating causation in ecology has been widely discussed in recent years, especially by advocates of a structural causal model (SCM) approach. Some of these advocates have criticized the use of predictive models and model selection for drawing inferences about causation. We argue that the comparison of model-based predictions with observations is a key step in hypothetico-deductive (H-D) science and remains a valid approach for assessing causation. We draw a distinction between two approaches to inference based on predictive modeling. The first approach is not guided by causal hypotheses and focuses on the relationship between a (typically) single response variable and a potentially large number of covariates. We agree that this approach does not yield useful inferences about causation and is primarily useful for hypothesis generation. The second approach follows a H-D framework and is guided by specific hypotheses about causal relationships. We believe that this has been, and continues to be, a useful approach to causal inference. Here, we first define different kinds of causation, arguing that a “probability-raisers-of-processes” definition is especially appropriate for many ecological systems. We outline different scientific “designs” for generating the observations used to investigate causation. We briefly outline some relevant components of the SCM and H-D approaches to investigating causation, emphasizing a H-D approach that focuses on modeling causal effects on vital rate (e.g., rates of survival, recruitment, local extinction, colonization) parameters underlying system dynamics. We consider criticisms of predictive modeling leveled by some SCM proponents and provide two example analyses of ecological systems that use predictive modeling and avoid these criticisms. We conclude that predictive models have been, and can continue to be, useful for providing inferences about causation.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

Management and the conservation of freshwater ecosystems

Riparian areas are the terrestrial environment adjacent to water that both influences and is influenced by the aquatic feature (Gregory et al ., 1991; Naiman et al ., 2010). Riparian areas along streams provide shade, sources of wood and organic matter, contribute to bank stability, filter sediments, take up excess nutrients from groundwater inputs, and other key processes that protect freshwaters (e.g. Naiman et al ., 2010; Richardson & Danehy, 2007; Figure 9.1). Riparian areas also increase biodiversity through habitat complexity and close juxtaposition of aquatic and terrestrial environments (Quinn et al ., 2004; Naiman et al ., 2010). Alterations to riparian areas, despite their small area relative to the landscape, have disproportionate effects on habitats and fish communities (Naiman et al ., 2010; Wipfli & Baxter, 2010). Key habitat losses and alterations are derived from modification of riparian areas by reducing instream habitat complexity (Bilby & Ward, 1989; Fausch & Northcote, 1992; Naiman et al ., 2010), diminishing the productive basis of freshwater food webs (Belsky et al ., 1999; Quinn et al ., 2004), increasing nutrient, contaminant and sediment intrusion (Muscutt et al ., 1993; Daniels & Gilliam, 1996; Nguyen et al ., 1998; Waters, 1999). Riparian and freshwater ecosystems are typically tightly coupled, especially in their natural states, and the linkages that couple them frequently exert strong influence on their associated invertebrate and fish fauna (e.g. Gregory et al ., 1991; Naiman et al ., 2010). Riparian habitats, and the condition of these habitats, further plays a key role in the ecology of these fresh waters, influencing critical processes such as water, nutrient and sediment delivery and dynamics; prey resources for fish and other consumers, and other organic materials exchanged between aquatic and terrestrial habitats (Nakano et al ., 1999; Naiman et al ., 2010); light and water temperature dynamics that in turn affect food web processes and fish metabolism and growth; aquatic physical habitat (wood); and terrestrial consumers that prey upon fishes (Bisson & Bilby, 1998; Naiman et al ., 2010; Wipfli & Baxter, 2010). These processes in turn directly or indirectly influence fishes in freshwater systems (Wang et al ., 2001; Pusey & Arthington, 2003; Allan, 2004; Richardson et al ., 2010a).

Book chapter↗

USGS2011

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Ecological Applications↗