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At least 613 records · Page 34Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Visualizing the ecological importance of pre-Euro-American settlement fire across three Midwestern landscapes

Bearing-tree data were used to calculate an index, pyrophilic percentage, depicting the importance of fire before Euro-American settlement on three landscapes, two within the Prairie Peninsula and one outside the region. Based on functional traits, bearing trees were classified as either pyrophilic or pyrophobic, applied to Public Land Survey points, and the pyrophilic percentage was calculated for each point. Kriging was applied to this point database to create a continuous surface of pyrophilic percentages. Regression analysis was used to relate this surface to environmental factors. Regression models created separately for each study area explained 38 to 53% of the variation in pyrophilic percentage. A positive association between pyrophilic percentage and distance to water and summer potential evapotranspiration was consistent across all study sites. The consistently high values and spatial patterns of pyrophilic percentage revealed fire-dominated landscapes interspersed with patches of pyrophobic vegetation. The restriction of pyrophobic areas to the leeside (east) of waterbodies indicated these served as firebreaks in a fire-swept landscape. Lake Michigan must have had a profound effect on pre- Euro-American settlement fire environments, serving as a massive physical firebreak while casting a moist maritime climate eastward. In southern and southwestern Illinois, the Mississippi River and associated tributaries along with an increase in topographic complexity also served as firebreaks, with pyrophobic forests restricted to riparian zones which progressively graded to pyrophilic vegetation on surrounding uplands. Our analysis expands the use of Public Land Survey data by converting bearing trees into a meaningful fire ecology index. While much of the landscape included in our study area is now in agriculture or urbanized, pyrophilic percentage maps can help guide land managers in the application of fire for restoration, conservation, and forestry purposes.

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

From top to bottom: Do Lake Trout diversify along a depth gradient in Great Bear Lake, NT, Canada?

Depth is usually considered the main driver of Lake Trout intraspecific diversity across lakes in North America. Given that Great Bear Lake is one of the largest and deepest freshwater systems in North America, we predicted that Lake Trout intraspecific diversity to be organized along a depth axis within this system. Thus, we investigated whether a deep-water morph of Lake Trout co-existed with four shallow-water morphs previously described in Great Bear Lake. Morphology, neutral genetic variation, isotopic niches, and life-history traits of Lake Trout across depths (0–150 m) were compared among morphs. Due to the propensity of Lake Trout with high levels of morphological diversity to occupy multiple habitat niches, a novel multivariate grouping method using a suite of composite variables was applied in addition to two other commonly used grouping methods to classify individuals. Depth alone did not explain Lake Trout diversity in Great Bear Lake; a distinct fifth deep-water morph was not found. Rather, Lake Trout diversity followed an ecological continuum, with some evidence for adaptation to local conditions in deep-water habitat. Overall, trout caught from deep-water showed low levels of genetic and phenotypic differentiation from shallow-water trout, and displayed higher lipid content (C:N ratio) and occupied a higher trophic level that suggested an potential increase of piscivory (including cannibalism) than the previously described four morphs. Why phenotypic divergence between shallow- and deep-water Lake Trout was low is unknown, especially when the potential for phenotypic variation should be high in deep and large Great Bear Lake. Given that variation in complexity of freshwater environments has dramatic consequences for divergence, variation in the complexity in Great Bear Lake (i.e., shallow being more complex than deep), may explain the observed dichotomy in the expression of intraspecific phenotypic diversity between shallow- vs. deep-water habitats. The ambiguity surrounding mechanisms driving divergence of Lake Trout in Great Bear Lake should be seen as reflective of the highly variable nature of ecological opportunity and divergent natural selection itself.

Northwest Territories↗
USGS2022

A framework for integrating inferred movement behavior into disease risk models

Movement behavior is an important contributor to habitat selection and its incorporation in disease risk models has been somewhat neglected. The habitat preferences of host individuals affect their probability of exposure to pathogens. If preference behavior can be incorporated in ecological niche models (ENMs) when data on pathogen distributions are available, then variation in such behavior may dramatically impact exposure risk. Here we use data from the anthrax endemic system of Etosha National Park, Namibia, to demonstrate how integrating inferred movement behavior alters the construction of disease risk maps. We used a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model that associated soil, bioclimatic, and vegetation variables with the best available pathogen presence data collected at anthrax carcass sites to map areas of most likely Bacillus anthracis (the causative bacterium of anthrax) persistence. We then used a hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish foraging and non-foraging behavioral states along the movement tracks of nine zebra ( Equus quagga ) during the 2009 and 2010 anthrax seasons. The resulting tracks, decomposed on the basis of the inferred behavioral state, formed the basis of step-selection functions (SSFs) that used the MaxEnt output as a potential predictor variable. Our analyses revealed different risks of exposure during different zebra behavioral states, which were obscured when the full movement tracks were analyzed without consideration of the underlying behavioral states of individuals. Pathogen (or vector) distribution models may be misleading with regard to the actual risk faced by host animal populations when specific behavioral states are not explicitly accounted for in selection analyses. To more accurately evaluate exposure risk, especially in the case of environmentally transmitted pathogens, selection functions could be built for each identified behavioral state and then used to assess the comparative exposure risk across relevant states. The scale of data collection and analysis, however, introduces complexities and limitations for consideration when interpreting results.

Etosha National Park↗
USGS2010

Development of an Environmental Flow Framework for the McKenzie River Basin, Oregon

The McKenzie River is a tributary to the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon. The McKenzie River is approximately 90 miles in length and has a drainage area of approximately 1,300 square miles. Two major flood control dams, a hydropower dam complex, and two hydropower canals significantly alter streamflows in the river. The structures reduce the magnitude and frequency of large and small floods while increasing the annual 7-day minimum streamflows. Stream temperatures also have been altered by the dams and other anthropogenic factors, such as the removal of riparian vegetation and channel simplification. Flow releases from one of the flood control dams are cooler in the summer and warmer in the fall in comparison to unregulated flow conditions before the dam was constructed. In 2006, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality listed a total of 112.4, 6.3, and 55.7 miles of the McKenzie River basin mainstem and tributary stream reaches as thermally impaired for salmonid rearing, salmonid spawning, and bull trout, respectively. The analyses in this report, along with previous studies, indicate that dams have altered downstream channel morphology and ecologic communities. In addition to reducing the magnitude and frequency of floods, dams have diminished sediment transport by trapping bed material. Other anthropogenic factors, such as bank stabilization, highway construction, and reductions of in-channel wood, also have contributed to the loss of riparian habitat. A comparison of aerial photography taken in 1939 and 2005 showed substantial decreases in secondary channels, gravel bars, and channel sinuosity, particularly along the lower alluvial reaches of the McKenzie River. In addition, bed armoring and incision may contribute to habitat degradation, although further study is needed to determine the extent of these processes. Peak streamflow reduction has led to vegetation colonization and stabilization of formerly active bar surfaces. The large flood control dams on Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River likely have had the greatest effect on downstream habitats because these sediment and flood-rich tributaries historically contributed a disproportionate volume of bed material, wood, and peak flows in comparison with the spring-fed tributaries of the upper McKenzie River basin. The ecological effects of the dams were examined by focusing on nine exemplar aquatic and terrestrial species, including spring Chinook salmon, bull trout, Oregon chub, Pacific and western brook lamprey, red-legged frog, western pond turtle, alder, and cottonwood. The changes caused by the dams to streamflow hydrograph affect all these and other species in complex ways, although a few commonalities are apparent. A loss of channel complexity in the McKenzie River basin, which is associated with the reduction in flood events and widespread channel stabilization, is the primary factor related to the observed population declines for all nine exemplar species. The dams also have caused direct ecological effects by blocking access to habitat, changing the amount and timing of available critical habitat, and changing water temperature during important seasons for different life stages.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2024

Perspectives on the future of ecology, evolution, and biodiversity from the Council on Microbial Sciences of the American Society for Microbiology

The field of microbial ecology, evolution, and biodiversity (EEB) is at the leading edge of understanding how microbes shape our biosphere and influence the well-being of humankind. To that end, EEB is developing new tools to analyze the massive, complex, transdisciplinary datasets that result from such studies. The American Society for Microbiology’s Council on Microbial Sciences hosted a virtual retreat in 2023 to identify the trajectory of EEB both within the Society and microbiology at large. Retreat presentations and discussions collectively emphasized the interconnectedness of microbes and their outsized global influence on environmental and host health. The retreat repeatedly emphasized that the future of science is through transdisciplinary collaborations that promote integration of diverse datasets and advanced technologies, while also genuinely fostering inclusivity, global collaborations, and public engagement. The American Society for Microbiology and EEB stand poised to lead a paradigm shift that will result in a new era of collaboration, innovation, and societal relevance for microbiology.

mSphere↗
USGS2024

Treed Gaussian processes for animal movement modeling

Wildlife telemetry data may be used to answer a diverse range of questions relevant to wildlife ecology and management. One challenge to modeling telemetry data is that animal movement often varies greatly in pattern over time, and current continuous-time modeling approaches to handle such nonstationarity require bespoke and often complex models that may pose barriers to practitioner implementation. We demonstrate a novel application of treed Gaussian process (TGP) modeling, a Bayesian machine learning approach that automatically captures the nonstationarity and abrupt transitions present in animal movement. The machine learning formulation of TGPs enables modeling to be nearly automated, while their Bayesian formulation allows for the derivation of movement descriptors with associated uncertainty measures. We demonstrate the use of an existing R package to implement TGPs using the familiar Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We then use estimated movement trajectories to derive movement descriptors that can be compared across individuals and populations. We applied the TGP model to a case study of lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) to demonstrate the benefits of TGP modeling and compared distance traveled and residence times across lesser prairie-chicken individuals and populations. For broad usability, we outline all steps necessary for practitioners to specify relevant movement descriptors (e.g., turn angles, speed, contact points) and apply TGP modeling and trajectory comparison to their own telemetry datasets. Combining the predictive power of machine learning and the statistical inference of Bayesian methods to model movement trajectories allows for the estimation of statistically comparable movement descriptors from telemetry studies. Our use of an accessible R package allows practitioners to model trajectories and estimate movement descriptors, facilitating the use of telemetry data to answer applied management questions.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2024

A guide to environmental DNA extractions for non-molecular trained biologists, ecologists, and conservation scientists

Ecologists, biologists, and conservation scientists are increasingly interested in the use of environmental DNA (eDNA) data for research and potentially decision-making. While commercial DNA extraction kits are typically user-friendly and accessible, they may fail to deliver the desired results with inherently complex eDNA samples, necessitating protocol optimization or educated selection of alternative approaches. To this end, knowledge of the basic steps and principles of DNA extractions is essential, but traditional education tracks in ecology, conservation, and environmental management typically do not include in-depth training in molecular methods. The primary objective of this paper is to enable scientists with an ecological background and limited molecular training to understand the four key steps of eDNA isolations, and to use this expertise to their advantage. We describe the purpose of commonly used reagents and chemicals, point out alternatives for each key step, explain the impact of certain choices regarding isolation approaches on DNA integrity and purity, and highlight the possibility of a tailor-made “mix and match” approach. We anticipate that this paper will enable field ecologists to develop a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and chemistry underlying eDNA extractions, thus allowing them to make informed decisions regarding the best eDNA extraction method for their research goals. Our intention is not to provide comprehensive, step-by-step protocols, but to offer guiding principles while highlighting alternative solutions. Finally, we hope that this paper will act as a useful resource to support knowledge transfer and teaching.

Environmental DNA↗
USGS2003

Kelp forest ecosystems: Biodiversity, stability, resilience and future

Kelp forests are phyletically diverse, structurally complex and highly productive components of coldwater rocky marine coastlines. This paper reviews the conditions in which kelp forests develop globally and where, why and at what rate they become deforested. The ecology and long archaeological history of kelp forests are examined through case studies from southern California, the Aleutian Islands and the western North Atlantic, well-studied locations that represent the widest possible range in kelp forest biodiversity. Global distribution of kelp forests is physiologically constrained by light at high latitudes and by nutrients, warm temperatures and other macrophytes at low latitudes. Within mid-latitude belts (roughly 40–60° latitude in both hemispheres) well-developed kelp forests are most threatened by herbivory, usually from sea urchins. Overfishing and extirpation of highly valued vertebrate apex predators often triggered herbivore population increases, leading to widespread kelp deforestation. Such deforestations have the most profound and lasting impacts on species-depauperate systems, such as those in Alaska and the western North Atlantic. Globally urchin-induced deforestation has been increasing over the past 2–3 decades. Continued fishing down of coastal food webs has resulted in shifting harvesting targets from apex predators to their invertebrate prey, including kelp-grazing herbivores. The recent global expansion of sea urchin harvesting has led to the widespread extirpation of this herbivore, and kelp forests have returned in some locations but, for the first time, these forests are devoid of vertebrate apex predators. In the western North Atlantic, large predatory crabs have recently filled this void and they have become the new apex predator in this system. Similar shifts from fish- to crab-dominance may have occurred in coastal zones of the United Kingdom and Japan, where large predatory finfish were extirpated long ago. Three North American case studies of kelp forests were examined to determine their long history with humans and project the status of future kelp forests to the year 2025. Fishing impacts on kelp forest systems have been both profound and much longer in duration than previously thought. Archaeological data suggest that coastal peoples exploited kelp forest organisms for thousands of years, occasionally resulting in localized losses of apex predators, outbreaks of sea urchin populations and probably small-scale deforestation. Over the past two centuries, commercial exploitation for export led to the extirpation of sea urchin predators, such as the sea otter in the North Pacific and predatory fishes like the cod in the North Atlantic. The large-scale removal of predators for export markets increased sea urchin abundances and promoted the decline of kelp forests over vast areas. Despite southern California having one of the longest known associations with coastal kelp forests, widespread deforestation is rare. It is possible that functional redundancies among predators and herbivores make this most diverse system most stable. Such biodiverse kelp forests may also resist invasion from non-native species. In the species-depauperate western North Atlantic, introduced algal competitors carpet the benthos and threaten future kelp dominance. There, other non-native herbivores and predators have become established and dominant components of this system. Climate changes have had measurable impacts on kelp forest ecosystems and efforts to control the emission of greenhouse gasses should be a global priority. However, overfishing appears to be the greatest manageable threat to kelp forest ecosystems over the 2025 time horizon. Management should focus on minimizing fishing impacts and restoring populations of functionally important species in these systems.

Environmental Conservation↗
USGS2021

Seasonal controls on sediment delivery and hydrodynamics in a vegetated tidally influenced interdistributary island

River deltas are maintained by a continuous supply of terrestrial sediments that provide critical land building material to help sustain and protect vulnerable ecological communities and serve as natural storm protection barriers. Local hydrodynamics are important in determining the degree to which fluvial sediments are removed from the water column and retained on the delta complex. During 2014, we measured hydrodynamics and sediment transport characteristics at one of the world's most rapidly prograding deltas, the Wax Lake delta in Louisiana, USA. We observed waves to be the dominant source of bottom stress for 70% of our observations. Sediment concentration tended to increase with shear stress, but only after stresses exceeded 0.01–0.02 Pa. Significant wave height and bottom stress were substantially reduced after June, when the emergence of American lotus ( Nelumbo lutea ) formed a dense canopy over the intertidal regions of the island splay. Hydrodynamics during these summer vegetated conditions were much more favorable to floc formation, and by extension particle settling, as shown by trends in the Kolmogorov microscale parameter over the course of the measurement campaign. Together, these findings suggest that the timing between peak river discharge and the emergence of vegetation may have a strong influence on rates of progradation in seasonally vegetated delta splays, whereby sediments delivered by flood events that extend late into summer may be governed by hydrodynamics that favor particle deposition, whereas those delivered prior to the summer may be more prone to remain in suspension and bypass the delta complex.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

Eradication efforts catalyze rapid evolution in an invasive predatory fish

pecies invasions spur costly and labor-intensive control efforts, yet even local eradication is seldom achieved. When control measures are initially effective, they may drive evolutionary adaptation that prevents full eradication, as has been documented for some chemical and biocontrol approaches. Although the intensity, directionality, and persistence of selection required to increase the frequency of resistant genotypes in complex natural ecosystems remains an open question, theory predicts that high mortality can cause life-history evolution even in the absence of a strong selective agent. Here, we use annually collected ecological and genetic data to show that rapid evolution of introduced smallmouth bass has undermined a 20-y manual suppression effort in a mid-sized lake. Despite nearly doubling annual mortality, our intensive control program produced a larger bass population dominated by young and early-maturing fish. These shifts were accompanied by large allele frequency changes in three genomic regions associated with earlier maturation and increased somatic growth. Our findings bear out the theoretical prediction that high mortality can drive evolutionary adaptation in target species. Controlling species invasions are worldwide practices that typically remove a substantial proportion of a population during each of many successive generations, hence life history adaptation may be commonplace. Such evolutionary responses could be salient in explaining the widespread failure of invasion control efforts. Genetic and phenotypic monitoring to detect cryptic adaptation and preemptive design of invader eradication programs to deliberately disrupt directional selection for resistance could improve invasion control outcomes.

New York↗
USGS2016

Applications of genetic data to improve management and conservation of river fishes and their habitats

Environmental variation and landscape features affect ecological processes in fluvial systems; however, assessing effects at management-relevant temporal and spatial scales is challenging. Genetic data can be used with landscape models and traditional ecological assessment data to identify biodiversity hotspots, predict ecosystem responses to anthropogenic effects, and detect impairments to underlying processes. We show that by combining taxonomic, demographic, and genetic data of species in complex riverscapes, managers can better understand the spatial and temporal scales over which environmental processes and disturbance influence biodiversity. We describe how population genetic models using empirical or simulated genetic data quantify effects of environmental processes affecting species diversity and distribution. Our summary shows that aquatic assessment initiatives that use standardized data sets to direct management actions can benefit from integration of genetic data to improve the predictability of disturbance–response relationships of river fishes and their habitats over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.

Fisheries↗
USGS2008

Fish assemblages of the Casiquiare River, a corridor and zoogeographical filter for dispersal between the Orinoco and Amazon basins

Aim: The aim of this study was to determine whether the Casiquiare River functions as a free dispersal corridor or as a partial barrier (i.e. filter) for the interchange of fish species of the Orinoco and Negro/Amazon basins using species assemblage patterns according to geographical location and environmental features. Location: The Casiquiare, Upper Orinoco and Upper Negro rivers in southern Venezuela, South America. Methods: Our study was based on an analysis of species presence/absence data and environmental information (11 habitat characteristics) collected by the authors and colleagues between the years 1984 and 1999. The data set consisted of 269 sampled sites and 452 fish species (> 50,000 specimens). A wide range of habitat types was included in the samples, and the collection sites were located at various points along the entire length of the Casiquiare main channel, at multiple sites on its tributary streams, as well as at various nearby sites outside the Casiquiare drainage, within the Upper Orinoco and Upper Rio Negro river systems. Most specimens and field data used in this analysis are archived in the Museo de Ciencias Naturales in Guanare, Venezuela. We performed canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) based on species presence/absence using two versions of the data set: one that eliminated sites having < 5 species and species occurring at < 5 sites; and another that eliminated sites having < 10 species and species occurring at < 10 sites. Cluster analysis was performed on sites based on species assemblage similarity, and a separate analysis was performed on species based on CCA loadings. Results: The CCA results for the two versions of the data set were qualitatively the same. The dominant environmental axis contrasted assemblages and sites associated with blackwater vs. clearwater conditions. Longitudinal position on the Casiquiare River was correlated (r2 = 0.33) with CCA axis-1 scores, reflecting clearwater conditions nearer to its origin (bifurcation of the Orinoco) and blackwater conditions nearer to its mouth (junction with the Rio Negro). The second CCA axis was most strongly associated with habitat size and structural complexity. Species associations derived from the unweighted pair-group average clustering method and pair-wise squared Euclidean distances calculated from species loadings on CCA axes 1 and 2 showed seven ecological groupings. Cluster analysis of species assemblages according to watershed revealed a stronger influence of local environmental conditions than of geographical proximity. Main conclusions: Fish assemblage composition is more consistently associated with local environmental conditions than with geographical position within the river drainages. Nonetheless, the results support the hypothesis that the mainstem Casiquiare represents a hydrochemical gradient between clearwaters at its origin and blackwaters at its mouth, and as such appears to function as a semi-permeable barrier (environmental filter) to dispersal and faunal exchanges between the partially vicariant fish faunas of the Upper Orinoco and Upper Negro rivers. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2024

Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region

Background Wildfire is a major proximate cause of historical and ongoing losses of intact big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) plant communities and declines in sagebrush obligate wildlife species. In recent decades, fire return intervals have shortened and area burned has increased in some areas, and habitat degradation is occurring where post-fire re-establishment of sagebrush is hindered by invasive annual grasses. In coming decades, the changing climate may accelerate these wildfire and invasive feedbacks, although projecting future wildfire dynamics requires a better understanding of long-term wildfire drivers across the big sagebrush region. Here, we integrated wildfire observations with climate and vegetation data to derive a statistical model for the entire big sagebrush region that represents how annual wildfire probability is influenced by climate and fine fuel characteristics. Results Wildfire frequency varied significantly across the sagebrush region, and our statistical model represented much of that variation. Biomass of annual and perennial grasses and forbs, which we used as proxies for fine fuels, influenced wildfire probability. Wildfire probability was highest in areas with high annual forb and grass biomass, which is consistent with the well-documented phenomenon of increased wildfire following annual grass invasion. The effects of annuals on wildfire probability were strongest in places with dry summers. Wildfire probability varied with the biomass of perennial grasses and forbs and was highest at intermediate biomass levels. Climate, which varies substantially across the sagebrush region, was also predictive of wildfire probability, and predictions were highest in areas with a low proportion of precipitation received in summer, intermediate precipitation, and high temperature. Conclusions We developed a carefully validated model that contains relatively simple and biologically plausible relationships, with the goal of adequate performance under novel conditions so that useful projections of average annual wildfire probability can be made given general changes in conditions. Previous studies on the impacts of vegetation and climate on wildfire probability in sagebrush ecosystems have generally used more complex machine learning approaches and have usually been applicable to only portions of the sagebrush region. Therefore, our model complements existing work and forms an additional tool for understanding future wildfire and ecological dynamics across the sagebrush region.

Fire Ecology↗
USGS2012

Estimated water requirements for gold heap-leach operations

This report provides a perspective on the amount of water necessary for conventional gold heap-leach operations. Water is required for drilling and dust suppression during mining, for agglomeration and as leachate during ore processing, to support the workforce (requires water in potable form and for sanitation), for minesite reclamation, and to compensate for water lost to evaporation and leakage. Maintaining an adequate water balance is especially critical in areas where surface and groundwater are difficult to acquire because of unfavorable climatic conditions [arid conditions and (or) a high evaporation rate]; where there is competition with other uses, such as for agriculture, industry, and use by municipalities; and where compliance with regulatory requirements may restrict water usage. Estimating the water consumption of heap-leach operations requires an understanding of the heap-leach process itself. The task is fairly complex because, although they all share some common features, each gold heap-leach operation is unique. Also, estimating the water consumption requires a synthesis of several fields of science, including chemistry, ecology, geology, hydrology, and meteorology, as well as consideration of economic factors.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2019

Ecological and management implications of climate change induced shifts in phenology of coastal fish and wildlife species in the Northeast CASC region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project seeks to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes, marine mammals,and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Ideally the suite of species selected will allow us to compare whether fish, marine mammals, shore and seabird predators are shifting their phenology at different rates than their primary prey and optimal habitat conditions, thus influencing trophic interactions and population dynamics. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted simultaneous to data collection and synthesis to determine what is known, and what knowledge/information/data gaps exist regarding regional phenological responses of coastal species to climate change. Project results will help managers assess the vulnerability of coastal species to climate change by providing information on how they are responding to impacts in the region.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2013

Plausible combinations: An improved method to evaluate the covariate structure of Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models

Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly- Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.

Open Journal Of Ecology↗
USGS2023

Witnessing history: Comparison of a century of sedimentary and written records in a California protected area

We use a combination of proxy records from a high-resolution analysis of sediments from Searsville Lake and adjacent Upper Lake Marsh and historical records to document over one and a half centuries of vegetation and socio-ecological change—relating to logging, agricultural land use change, dam construction, chemical applications, recreation, and other drivers—on the San Francisco Peninsula. A relatively open vegetation with minimal oak ( Quercus ) and coast redwood ( Sequoia sempervirens ) in the late 1850s reflects widespread logging and grazing during the nineteenth century. Forest and woodland expansion occurred in the early twentieth century, with forests composed of coast redwood and oak, among other taxa, as both logging and grazing declined. Invasive species include those associated with pasturage ( Rume x , Plantago ), landscape disturbance ( Urtica , Amaranthaceae), planting for wood production and wind barriers ( Eucalyptus ), and agriculture. Agricultural species, including wheat, rye, and corn, were more common in the early twentieth century than subsequently. Wetland and aquatic pollen and fungal spores document a complex hydrological history, often associated with fluctuating water levels, application of algaecides, raising of Searsville Dam, and construction of a levee. By pairing the paleoecological and historical records of both lakes, we have been able to reconstruct the previously undocumented impacts of socio-ecological influences on this drainage, all of which overprinted known climate changes. Recognizing the ecological manifestations of these impacts puts into perspective the extent to which people have interacted with and transformed the environment in the transition into the Anthropocene.

California↗
USGS2026

Seasonal drivers of density in a subarctic population of northern red-backed voles

Northern red-backed voles ( Clethrionomys rutilus ) are an important species in the boreal forest ecosystem, both as herbivores and as a key food source for many mammalian and avian predators. They exhibit dramatic inter- and intra-annual population fluctuations, for which causes are not entirely known. We monitored northern red-backed vole densities in Denali National Park and Preserve through time with the goal of examining how environmental factors influenced density over time. Using a 30-year record of mark-recapture data, we used spatially explicit capture-recapture methods to estimate autumn and early summer densities each year. We assessed cyclic patterns in density, variation in amplitude, and any periodicity of population fluctuations using post hoc linear modeling. We found that the vole population appeared to be cyclic with a 2–4 year period, although the pattern varied somewhat among sampling sites. Our results indicated an association between white spruce ( Picea glauca ) seed production and vole density, implying white spruce seeds were either an important source of food during winter seasons, or that the environmental triggers that promote high seed fall were also associated with increased vole density. We also found a negative effect of an autumn harshness index, indicating winter conditions play a role in vole density in the following season. Finally, we found evidence of a negative density-dependent relationship between autumn and early summer. Together, these findings suggest a system in which density dependence and cyclic relationships are irregular but highly influential, with environmental effects capable of enhancing or moderating their impact. Continued monitoring of voles, alongside more thorough assessments of environmental conditions, may provide additional insight into the complex population dynamics of this species.

Alaska↗