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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Trends and carrying capacity of sea otters in Southeast Alaska

Sea otter populations in Southeast Alaska (SEAK) have increased dramatically from fewer than 500 translocated animals in the late 1960s. The recovery of sea otters to ecosystems from which they had been absent has affected coastal food webs, including commercially important fisheries, and thus information on expected growth and equilibrium abundances can help inform resource management. We compile available survey data for SEAK and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past trends and current abundance. Our model improves upon previous analyses by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error, accounting for over-dispersion of aerial count data, and providing realistic measurements of uncertainty around point estimates of abundance at multiple spatial scales. We also provide the first estimates of carrying capacity (K) for SEAK, at both regional and sub-regional scales, and analyze growth rates, current population status and expected future trends. At the regional scale, the population increased from 13,221 otters in 2003 (95% credible interval 9,990 – 16,828) to 25,584 otters in 2011 (CI95 18,739 – 33,163). The average annual growth rate in southern SEAK (7.8%) was higher than northern SEAK (2.7%); however, growth varied at the sub-regional scale and there was a negative relationship between growth rates and the number of years sea otters were present in an area. Local populations vary in terms of current densities and expected future growth: the mean estimated density at K was 4.2 (1.58) sea otters per km2 of habitat (defined as the sub-tidal benthos between 0-40m depth) and current densities correspond on average to 50% of projected equilibrium values (range = 1% to 97%) with the earliest-colonized sub-regions tending to be closer to K. Assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities for currently un-occupied habitats in SEAK, the projected value of K for all of SEAK is 74,650 sea otters (CI95 =36,778–136,506). Future analyses can improve upon the precision of K estimates by employing more frequent surveys at index sites and incorporating environmental covariates into the process model to generate habitat-specific estimates of equilibrium density.

Alaska↗

USGS2023

Lake sturgeon population trends in the St. Clair–Detroit River System, 2001–2019

Lake Sturgeon Acipenser fulvescens are listed as threatened or endangered in 15 states or provinces within their native range. Accordingly, investments in habitat and population restoration for this species have increased throughout the Great Lakes. To aide evaluation of restoration efficacy, robust population parameters are needed to inform management decisions. The St. Clair – Detroit River System (SCDRS) contains one of the largest self-sustaining Lake Sturgeon populations in the Great Lakes; however recent estimates of population abundance and growth parameters have not been assessed. Our study used baited setline and mark-recapture data collected between 2001 – 2019 to estimate whether the number of Lake Sturgeon captured varied annually and/or with water temperature and whether population abundance and population growth rate varied among three sub-populations located in the SCDRS. Trends in the number of Lake Sturgeon captured on setlines varied among sub-populations and by life stage. Annual trends in the number of Lake Sturgeon captured remained consistent over time in the upper St. Clair River, decreased for adults and increased for subadults in the lower St. Clair River, and increased in the Detroit River. With sub-population abundance of 20,184 (95% CI = 12,533 – 27,816) in the upper St. Clair River/southern Lake Huron, 6,523 (95% CI = 5,720 – 7,327) in the lower St. Clair River, and 6,416 (95% CI = 4,065 – 8,767) in the Detroit River, our study confirms that the SCDRS contains the largest Lake Sturgeon population with unimpeded access to the Great Lakes. The geometric mean population growth rate ( λ ) for all sub-populations indicated stable populations and ranged from 1.00 – 1.16. Our study provides an updated assessment of Lake Sturgeon population parameters that serve as a baseline to evaluate habitat restoration efforts and inform management of the SCDRS recreational Lake Sturgeon fishery.

Michigan, Ontario↗

USGS2014

Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

Kansas River, Missouri River↗

USGS2020

Estimating inundation of small waterbodies with sub-pixel analysis of Landsat imagery: Long-term trends in surface water area and evaluation of common drought indices

Small waterbodies are numerically dominant in many landscapes and provide several important ecosystem services, but automated measurement of waterbodies smaller than a standard Landsat pixel (0.09 ha) remains challenging. To further evaluate sub‐Landsat pixel techniques for estimating inundation extent of small waterbodies (basin area: 0.06–1.79 ha), we used a partial spectral unmixing method with matched filtering applied to September 1985–2018 Landsat 5 and eight imagery from southern Arizona, USA. We estimated trends in modeled surface water area each September and evaluated the ability of several common drought indices to explain variation in mean water area. Our methods accurately classified waterbodies as dry or inundated (Landsat 5: 91.3%; Landsat 8: 98.9%) and modeled and digitized surface water areas were strongly correlated ( R 2 = 0.70–0.92; bias = −0.024 to −0.015 ha). Estimated surface water area was best explained by the 3‐month seasonal standardized precipitation index (SPI03; July‒September). We found a wide range of estimated relationships between drought indices (e.g. SPI vs. Palmer Drought Severity Index) and estimated water area, even for different durations of the same drought index (e.g. SPI01 vs. SPI12). Mean waterbody surface area decreased by ~14% from September 1985 to September 2018, which matches declines in local annual precipitation and regional trends of reduced inundation extent of larger waterbodies. These results emphasize the importance of understanding local systems when relying on drought indices to infer variation in past or future surface water dynamics. Several challenges remain before widespread application of sub‐pixel methods is feasible, but our results provide further evidence that partial spectral unmixing with matched filtering provides reliable measures of inundation extent of small waterbodies.

Arizona↗

USGS2012

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Marine Biology↗

USGS2011

Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

Greater Horn of Africa↗

USGS2007

Trends in summer chemistry linked to productivity in lakes recovering from acid deposition in the Adirondack region of New York

The US Environmental Protection Agency established the Adirondack Effects Assessment Program (AEAP) to evaluate and monitor the status of biological communities in lakes in the Adirondack region of New York that have been adversely affected by acid deposition. This program includes chemical analysis of 30 lakes, sampled two to three times each summer. Results of trends analysis for lake chemistry and chlorophyll a (chlor a) are presented for 1994 to 2003, and a general comparison is made with recent results of the Adirondack Long-Term Monitoring (ALTM) Program, which included chemical analysis of all but two of these lakes (plus an additional 24 lakes) monthly, year-round for 1992-2004. Increases in pH were found in 25 of the 30 AEAP lakes (P < 0.05) and increases in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) were found in 12 of the 30 lakes (P < 0.05). Concentrations of both SO 42- and Mg 2+ decreased in 11 lakes (P < 0.05), whereas concentrations of NO 3- decreased in 20 lakes (P < 0.05). Concentrations of NH 4+ decreased in 10 lakes at a significance level of P < 0.05 and in three other lakes based on P < 0.1. Concentrations of inorganic and organic monomeric aluminum generally were below the reporting limit of 1.5 ??mol L-1, but decreases were detected in four and five lakes, respectively (P < 0.1). Concentrations of chlor a increased in seven lakes at a significance level of P < 0.05 and two lakes at a significance level of P < 0.1. A significant inverse correlation was also found between chlor a and NO 3- concentrations in nine lakes at a significance level of P < 0.05 and two lakes at a significance level of P < 0.1. Results of AEAP analysis of lake chemistry were similar to those of the ALTM Program, although decreases in SO 42- concentrations were more evident in the year-round ALTM record. Overall, the results suggest (a) a degree of chemical recovery from acidification during the summer, (b) an increase in phytoplankton productivity, and (c) a decreasing trend in NO 3- concentrations resulting from the increased productivity. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2009

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2024

Smallmouth buffalo (Ictiobus bubalus Rafinesque) population trends and demographics in the Upper Mississippi River System

Smallmouth buffalo ( Ictiobus bubalus Rafinesque) are a large-bodied fish highly valued and commercially exploited across most of their range. Despite this, relatively little is known of their population demographics compared to other exploited species. To fill these knowledge gaps, we analyzed two independent long-term datasets (30 and 57 years, respectively) and population demographic data (age structure, growth, mortality, age at maturity, and recruitment) from multiple pools of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) and Illinois River (Illinois, USA). Long-term data (30-year dataset) generally show downward trends or significant declines in catch per unit effort in the UMRS, while the 57-year dataset shows a stable trend or a significant increase in the Illinois River. The oldest smallmouth buffalo were estimated to be 39 years old, with nearly every pool sampled having individuals estimated to exceed 30 years of age. Except for Pool 13 of the UMRS, 90% of smallmouth buffalo were estimated to mature between 411 and 470 mm in length or between 8.7 and 11.2 years old. Recruitment was variable: strong year classes were generally preceded by multiple years of weak year classes. Our results indicate that the smallmouth buffalo population may be stable in portions of the UMRS and Illinois River systems, but significant declines in the northern extent of the UMRS may warrant conservation concern. Recent research into ages of buffalofishes shows that consideration should be given to the idea that the UMRS population could be age truncated. Results also emphasize the importance of long-term data and the ability to show changes in exploited populations over time.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2010

Long-term trends in submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, related to water quality

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAVabundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.

Estuaries and Coasts↗

USGS1989

Population trends of North American shorebirds based on the International Shorebird Survey

Shorebirds Charadrii are prime candidates for population decline because of their dependence on wetlands that are being lost at a rapid pace. Thirty-six of the 49 species of shorebirds that breed in North America spend most of the year in Latin America. Because populations of most species breed and winter at remote sites, it may be most feasible to monitor their numbers at migration stopovers. In this study, we used statistical trend analysis methods, developed for the North America Breeding Bird Survey, to analyze data on shorebird populations during southbound migration in the United States. Survey data were collected by volunteers in the International Shorebird Survey (ISS). The analyses indicate that whimbrels Numenius phaeopus , short-billed dowitchers Limnodromus griseus , and sanderlings Calidris alba have undergone statistically significant declines. Methodological concerns over both the ISS and the trend analysis procedures are discussed in detail and biological interpretations of the results are suggested.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS1993

Rock-eval pyrolysis and vitrinite reflectance trends in the Cleveland Shale Member of the Ohio Shale, eastern Kentucky

Within eastern Kentucky, organic petrographic and geochemical data indicate a southeastwards increase in maturation of the Cleveland Shale Member of the Ohio Shale (Devonian-Mississippian). Reflectance levels of dispersed organic material in the Cleveland Shale increase from 0.5% in the outcrop belt in central Kentucky, to slightly over 1.0% in Pike County, eastern Kentucky. A decrease in fluorescence intensity of liptinitic components, such as Tasmanites , accompanies this reflectance increase, as does a shift in fluorescence color of the alginite towards the red. In the highest rank areas, fluorescence is almost absent. Groundmass fluorescence is observed also, and follows trends similar to those shown by the alginite. Kerogen in the Cleveland Shale is primarily Type II, as indicated by petrographic observations and Rock-Eval data. Total organic carbon contents of this shale decrease from over 12% in the outcrop belt, to less than 2% in the eastern-most part of the study area. Source rock potential ranges from good to very good, with the highest potentials occurring in the outcrop belt. T max values for this unit increase from under 430°C in the outcrop belt to over 450°C in the southeast, confirming the increase in maturation trends indicated by vitrinite reflectance data. Both petrographic and geochemical maturation parameters place the Cleveland Shale of eastern Kentucky within the oil window. Comparison with maturation data for Pennsylvanian-age coals upsection suggests that maturation indices are retarded, or suppressed, in the Devonian shales. The level of maturation indicated for the Cleveland may be problematical considering that the Ohio Shale is a major gas-producer in this area.

Kentucky↗

USGS1994

The precision of wet atmospheric deposition data from national atmospheric deposition program/national trends network sites determined with collocated samplers

A collocated, wet-deposition sampler program has been operated since October 1988 by the U.S. Geological Survey to estimate the overall sampling precision of wet atmospheric deposition data collected at selected sites in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network (NADP/NTN). A duplicate set of wet-deposition sampling instruments was installed adjacent to existing sampling instruments at four different NADP/NTN sites for each year of the study. Wet-deposition samples from collocated sites were collected and analysed using standard NADP/NTN procedures. Laboratory analyses included determinations of pH, specific conductance, and concentrations of major cations and anions. The estimates of precision included all variability in the data-collection system, from the point of sample collection through storage in the NADP/NTN database. Sampling precision was determined from the absolute value of differences in the analytical results for the paired samples in terms of median relative and absolute difference. The median relative difference for Mg2+, Na+, K+ and NH4+ concentration and deposition was quite variable between sites and exceeded 10% at most sites. Relative error for analytes whose concentrations typically approached laboratory method detection limits were greater than for analytes that did not typically approach detection limits. The median relative difference for SO42- and NO3- concentration, specific conductance, and sample volume at all sites was less than 7%. Precision for H+ concentration and deposition ranged from less than 10% at sites with typically high levels of H+ concentration to greater than 30% at sites with low H+ concentration. Median difference for analyte concentration and deposition was typically 1.5-2-times greater for samples collected during the winter than during other seasons at two northern sites. Likewise, the median relative difference in sample volume for winter samples was more than double the annual median relative difference at the two northern sites. Bias accounted for less than 25% of the collocated variability in analyte concentration and deposition from weekly collocated precipitation samples at most sites.A collocated, wet-deposition sampler program has been operated since OCtober 1988 by the U.S Geological Survey to estimate the overall sampling precision of wet atmospheric deposition data collected at selected sites in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network (NADP/NTN). A duplicate set of wet-deposition sampling instruments was installed adjacent to existing sampling instruments four different NADP/NTN sites for each year of the study. Wet-deposition samples from collocated sites were collected and analysed using standard NADP/NTN procedures. Laboratory analyses included determinations of pH, specific conductance, and concentrations of major cations and anions. The estimates of precision included all variability in the data-collection system, from the point of sample collection through storage in the NADP/NTN database.

Atmospheric Environment↗

USGS2015

Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002–2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver ( Castor canadensis ). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2017

Informing recovery in a human-transformed landscape: Drought-mediated coexistence alters population trends of an imperiled salamander and invasive predators

Understanding the additive or interactive threats of habitat transformation and invasive species is critical for conservation, especially where climate change is expected to increase the severity or frequency of drought. In the arid southwestern USA, this combination of stressors has caused widespread declines of native aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Achieving resilience to drought and other effects of climate change may depend upon continued management, so understanding the combined effects of stressors is important. We used Bayesian hierarchical models fitted with 10-years of pond-based monitoring surveys for the federally-endangered Sonoran Tiger Salamander ( Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi ) and invasive predators (fishes and American Bullfrogs, Lithobates catesbeianus ) that threaten native species. We estimated trends in occupancy of salamanders and invasive predators while accounting for hydrological dynamics of ponds, then used a two-species interaction model to directly estimate how invasive predators affected salamander occupancy. We also tested a conceptual model that predicted that drought, by limiting the distribution of invasive predators, could ultimately benefit native species. Even though occupancy of invasive predators was stationary and their presence in a pond reduced the probability of salamander presence by 23%, occupancy of Sonoran Tiger Salamanders increased, annually, by 2.2%. Occupancy of salamanders and invasive predators both declined dramatically following the 5th consecutive year of drought. Salamander occupancy recovered quickly after return to non-drought conditions, while occupancy of invasive predators remained suppressed. Models that incorporated three time-lagged periods (1 to 4 years) of local moisture conditions confirmed that salamanders and invasive predators responded differently to drought, reflecting how life-history strategies shape responses to disturbances. The positive 10-year trend in salamander occupancy and their rapid recovery after drought provided partial support for the hypothesis of drought-mediated coexistence with invasive predators. These results also suggest management opportunities for conservation of the Sonoran Tiger Salamander and other imperiled organisms in human-transformed landscapes.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2012

Evaluation of carbon fluxes and trends (2000-2008) in the Greater Platte River Basin: a sustainability study on the potential biofuel feedstock development

This study evaluates the carbon fluxes and trends and examines the environmental sustainability (e.g., carbon budget, source or sink) of the potential biofuel feedstock sites identified in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). A 9-year (2000–2008) time series of net ecosystem production (NEP), a measure of net carbon absorption or emission by ecosystems, was used to assess the historical trends and budgets of carbon flux for grasslands in the GPRB. The spatially averaged annual NEP (ANEP) for grassland areas that are possibly suitable for biofuel expansion (productive grasslands) was 71–169 g C m −2 year −1 during 2000–2008, indicating a carbon sink (more carbon is absorbed than released) in these areas. The spatially averaged ANEP for areas not suitable for biofuel feedstock development (less productive or degraded grasslands) was −47 to 69 g C m −2 year −1 during 2000–2008, showing a weak carbon source or a weak carbon sink (carbon emitted is nearly equal to carbon absorbed). The 9-year pre-harvest cumulative ANEP was 1166 g C m −2 for the suitable areas (a strong carbon sink) and 200 g C m −2 for the non-suitable areas (a weak carbon sink). Results demonstrate and confirm that our method of dynamic modeling of ecosystem performance can successfully identify areas desirable and sustainable for future biofuel feedstock development. This study provides useful information for land managers and decision makers to make optimal land use decisions regarding biofuel feedstock development and sustainability.

Biomass and Bioenergy↗

USGS2008

Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres (Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population numbers for all four species at St. George were approximately equivalent to those observed in 1976. In contrast, at St. Paul Island, all four species have declined for most of this 30-year time series, with only black-legged kittiwakes showing increases in the past decade but still remaining far below 1976 numbers. Interestingly, rates of productivity for kittiwakes and for murres were similar between the two islands, suggesting similar responses to summer conditions and implicating differential mortality of post-fledging juveniles or adults from the two islands (i.e., if summer food stress was insufficient to cause differences in productivity, but sufficient to cause physiological consequences that reduced survival. Another possibility is immigration from St. Paul to St. George, probably by juveniles. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2024

Leveraging local wildlife surveys for robust occupancy trend estimation

Natural resource agencies are frequently tasked with monitoring populations of at-risk species to ensure management activities do not negatively affect the viability of wildlife populations. Typically, these monitoring efforts evaluate trends in a population’s abundance, occupancy, or geographic distribution. Often, surveys provide local information, but results are generally not incorporated into broad-scale monitoring efforts that focus on range-wide population changes due to their variable nature in both spatial extent and effort. We investigated whether aggregating these local (hereafter “variable”) surveys can generate enough statistical power to estimate broad-scale population trends using simulations of declining populations of fishers ( Pekania pennati ) over a 10-year time horizon. Our simulations included three population sizes which we refer to as abundant, common, and rare ( N 0 = 700, 350, and 100 individuals, respectively) with each declining at a rapid and moderate pace ( λ = 0.933, and 0.977, respectively). For each population, we simulated variable surveys using an occupancy framework to subsample the population with parameters that mimic combining multiple independent monitoring efforts which vary annually in location, and effort. Regardless of spatial consistency of annual sampling, there was minimal variation in statistical power under both high and low detection probability simulations. However, when sampling effort varied each year, statistical power was lower for most populations and sampling scenarios when compared to consistent sampling effort unless some baseline level of sampling effort was reliably achieved in all years. In many cases, adding low-level consistent baseline sampling to variable surveys resulted in statistical power close to that of consistent sampling efforts. Our results suggest statistical power is driven by annual consistency in the proportion of landscape sampled rather than spatial consistency in sampling locations. This result indicates that current variable surveys could be leveraged and combined to detect population declines for at-risk species at broad-scales if a baseline proportion of landscape is robustly sampled. The level of baseline sampling is highly dependent on population size and magnitudes of population change. In simulations with a common or abundant population experiencing a rapid decline, a baseline survey effort of at least 5% of the landscape in combination with variable surveys resulted in statistical power consistently above the standard threshold of 0.80 for occupancy monitoring. Leveraging existing local efforts to achieve high detection probability and baseline sampling would reduce financial and logistical burdens of broad-scale wildlife monitoring efforts.

Idaho, Montana↗