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USGS2015

The shifting climate portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

Knowledge of climatic variability at small spatial extents (< 50 km) is needed to assess vulnerabilities of biological reserves to climate change. We used empirical and modeled weather station data to test if climate change has increased the synchrony of surface air temperatures among 50 sites within the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) of the interior western United States. This important biological reserve is the largest protected area in the Lower 48 states and provides critical habitat for some of the world’s most iconic wildlife. We focused our analyses on temporal shifts and shape changes in the annual distributions of seasonal minimum and maximum air temperatures among valley-bottom and higher elevation sites from 1948–2012. We documented consistent patterns of warming since 1948 at all 50 sites, with the most pronounced changes occurring during the Winter and Summer when minimum and maximum temperature distributions increased. These shifts indicate more hot temperatures and less cold temperatures would be expected across the GYA. Though the shifting statistical distributions indicate warming, little change in the shape of the temperature distributions across sites since 1948 suggest the GYA has maintained a diverse portfolio of temperatures within a year. Spatial heterogeneity in temperatures is likely maintained by the GYA’s physiographic complexity and its large size, which encompasses multiple climate zones that respond differently to synoptic drivers. Having a diverse portfolio of temperatures may help biological reserves spread the extinction risk posed by climate change.

Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Density estimation in a wolverine population using spatial capture-recapture models

Classical closed-population capture-recapture models do not accommodate the spatial information inherent in encounter history data obtained from camera-trapping studies. As a result, individual heterogeneity in encounter probability is induced, and it is not possible to estimate density objectively because trap arrays do not have a well-defined sample area. We applied newly-developed, capture-recapture models that accommodate the spatial attribute inherent in capture-recapture data to a population of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Southeast Alaska in 2008. We used camera-trapping data collected from 37 cameras in a 2,140-km 2 area of forested and open habitats largely enclosed by ocean and glacial icefields. We detected 21 unique individuals 115 times. Wolverines exhibited a strong positive trap response, with an increased tendency to revisit previously visited traps. Under the trap-response model, we estimated wolverine density at 9.7 individuals/1,000-km 2 (95% Bayesian CI: 5.9-15.0). Our model provides a formal statistical framework for estimating density from wolverine camera-trapping studies that accounts for a behavioral response due to baited traps. Further, our model-based estimator does not have strict requirements about the spatial configuration of traps or length of trapping sessions, providing considerable operational flexibility in the development of field studies.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Analysis and review of fishery-dependent data for Hawaiian nearshore noncommercial fisheries

Noncommercial, shore-based fisheries provide economic, social, and cultural services to communities throughout the Hawaiian Islands. The State of Hawai‘i Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR), Division of Aquatic Resources (DAR) routinely conducts surveys to monitor noncommercial fisheries such that estimates of fishing effort and catch by gear type can be generated and used to implement more sustainable management practices. DAR executes both the Hawai‘i Marine Recreational Fishery Survey (HMRFS), a nationally standardized survey that focuses on intercepting fishers at access points (i.e., boat ramps) across the main Hawaiian Islands, and a set of roving creel surveys on O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i that observe and intercept fishers at locations along the shoreline outside of those targeted by HMRFS. The latter set of creel surveys were designed to complement HMRFS by expanding its geographic coverage and thus providing a more representative picture of noncommercial fishing in Hawai‘i. Sustainable management priorities set by DAR rely on the availability of statewide, fishery- dependent data. Thus, we collate information from island-based roving creel surveys into a cohesive Statewide Creel Survey Database. Further, we provide preliminary analyses and describe ways that surveys could be streamlined to improve future data collection, analysis, and utility. In so doing, we synthesize the most detailed information to-date about noncommercial shore-based fisheries of Hawai‘i. The unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage of DAR’s dataset reveals the value of their survey efforts over the last decade to address fishery management needs. Our primary objectives, results, and conclusions are summarized below: 1) Integrate DAR roving creel survey data from different islands into a single Statewide Creel Survey Dataset (Chapter II). We describe the collation of creel survey data from O‘ahu, Maui Nui, and Kaua‘i into a statewide dataset. We also offer ways in which these surveys could be streamlined to meet the needs of managers and decision makers. Briefly, these are to create a statewide strategic plan, standardize the execution of standard operating procedures, centralize the creel survey database and associated metadata, and consider using technology that improves the data pipeline, including transitioning from paper-based to electronic systems for data entry and processing. 2) Assess whether the new Statewide Creel Survey Dataset can provide inputs for length-based stock assessments (Chapter III). Only on Maui were interviews conducted with associated catch data. There was reasonably high taxonomic coverage (42 species from 186 interviews with 310 fishers), but low sample sizes for nearly all species precluded the development of length-based stock assessments. We provide summary statistics from the existing data and briefly discuss how technologies could be used to automate analysis of images of noncommercial catch. 3) Analyze the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset for spatial and temporal patterns in fishing effort (Chapter IV): a. Visualizing noncommercial fishing pressure . We found that fishing effort (mean number of fishers observed per survey event at a site) on O'ahu was over three times greater than that recorded during similar surveys conducted on Maui or Kaua'i. We create maps that display the distribution of angling and spearfishing effort around each of the three islands. b. Factors that predict fishing “hotspots” around Maui . Fishing effort on Maui was associated with areas with more wave power and less parking availability. There were half as many fishers in areas with parking lots than in areas with parking on the road shoulder only. c. Changes in fishing effort during the COVID-19 pandemic . There was no change in fishing effort on O‘ahu during the first year of the pandemic, but there was a 20% decline in year 2 and a 33% decline in year 3, both in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Pre-pandemic creel survey data were unavailable for Maui and Kaua‘i, but fishing effort on these islands also declined as the pandemic progressed at similar or greater rates than those observed on O‘ahu. 4) Quantify potential bias in survey methods by experimentally deriving fisher detection probabilities of shore-based and drone-based surveys (Chapter V): a. Shore-based surveys . We conducted roving creel surveys for four months at three locations around Hilo Bay, designed to emulate and estimate the efficacy of DAR standard operating procedures. There was high agreement between paired observers in counting fishers, leading to near-perfect detection probabilities of both anglers (94%) and spearfishers (97%), but relatively low agreement and detection probabilities of other fishers (throw net, ‘opihi picking, etc.) (52%). b. Drone-based surveys . We used an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; operated by DAR staff) to collect imagery of fishers along the Hilo Bay shoreline. We used still images and video clips (with known fishing activity) to build an online survey that was distributed to DAR and HCFRU personnel, asking them to count and categorize resource users as a snorkeler, spearfisher, angler, or other fisher. Only 40.0% of the responses correctly counted and categorized resource users in the image. Anglers were correctly identified and enumerated in 90.0% of the responses, but the correct response rates of the other three user categories ranged from 67.8% – 79.4%. Snorkelers and anglers tended to be undercounted while spearfishers and other fishers were overcounted. 5) Review the potential for incorporating emerging technologies that will improve, augment, and evolve creel survey data collection, especially for spearfishing (Chapter VI). Within the context of monitoring shore-based noncommercial fishing, we review the use of electronic data entry/processing systems with geospatial and image capabilities, field cameras, drones, smart buoys, citizen science apps, data mining social media, artificial intelligence and machine learning. We highlight several of the challenges and considerations when implementing these technologies into creel surveys and provide a synthesis of options that could be used to better estimate spearfishing. The general conclusion of this assessment is that the DAR roving creel survey program is collecting valuable data that supplement the existing HMRFS efforts. However, there are a number of areas that could be improved to make these efforts a more effective tool for decision-making processes in resource management and conservation: 1) Establishment of clear statewide and island objectives for the Statewide Creel Survey Dataset. Currently, data collection efforts are focused towards addressing a very broad purpose – supplementing the HMRFS data collection efforts. However, the results of the preliminary analyses conducted as part of this project suggest that the data could be used to address other areas of need if these objectives were clearly defined. Further, the design of the creel survey would benefit from greater standardization of survey protocols between islands and an effort to define a) the acceptable margins of error associated with the estimates generated by these data and b) the minimum level of change that the surveys would need to detect to be useful to managers. 2) Centralization of data entry, data quality assessment, and data accessibility. Currently, each DAR office manages data entry, checks the data for errors, and is responsible for managing and storing the data. Instituting a centralized data entry system, particularly an online database that can receive survey data from tablets or smartphones running a standardized data collection application would improve efficiency, reduce data entry errors, and accelerate the availability of data to managers. A substantial amount of time and effort from the project described in this report was devoted to checking the dataset for errors. The development and application of data quality assurance protocols would ensure that the data are reliable and available in a timely fashion to support management decisions. 3) Address lingering questions regarding the efficacy of current survey protocols to capture and characterize the spearfishing component of the noncommercial fishery. The results presented in the report suggest that the current creel survey protocols do a good job detecting spearfishers when present but are not capturing sufficient data about their catch or total effort. There are also questions remaining as to whether the survey times and sites are sufficiently capturing the behavior of spearfishers in Hawai‘i. A more thorough assessment – whether through additional research, alteration of survey design, or review of data by representatives of the spearfishing community – would provide insight on how to use the Statewide Creel Survey Database to inform management of spearfishing. 4) Investigate the integration of technological advancements into the creel survey methods. As priorities and needs are developed and formalized, it would be valuable to consider how various technological advancements might enhance and streamline data collection or open new avenues of inquiry.

Hawaii↗

USGS2008

Constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity

We study how enforcing self-consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event. We explore features of rupture dynamics that (1) lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and (2) maintain these conditions following rupture, so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events. Our three-dimensional fmite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical, planar strike-slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop (initial shear stress) and breakdown work (fracture energy) are spatially heterogeneous. In these models the breakdown work is on the order of MJ/m2, which is comparable to the radiated energy. These conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model. An alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence, which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models. We hypothesize that self-consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self-sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kJ/M2. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2007

Water use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems

The sustainability of human water use practices is a rapidly growing concern in the United States and around the world. To better characterize direct human interaction with hydrologic systems (stream basins and aquifers), we introduce the concept of the water use regime. Unlike scalar indicators of anthropogenic hydrologic stress in the literature, the water use regime is a two‐dimensional, vector indicator that can be depicted on simple x‐y plots of normalized human withdrawals ( h out ) versus normalized human return flows ( h in ). Four end‐member regimes, natural‐flow‐dominated (undeveloped), human‐flow‐dominated (churned), withdrawal‐dominated (depleted), and return‐flow‐dominated (surcharged), are defined in relation to limiting values of h out and h in . For illustration, the water use regimes of 19 diverse hydrologic systems are plotted and interpreted. Several of these systems, including the Yellow River Basin, China, and the California Central Valley Aquifer, are shown to approach particular end‐member regimes. Spatial and temporal regime variations, both seasonal and long‐term, are depicted. Practical issues of data availability and regime uncertainty are addressed in relation to the statistical properties of the ratio estimators h out and h in . The water use regime is shown to be a useful tool for comparative water resources assessment and for describing both historic and alternative future pathways of water resource development at a range of scales.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2012

Enhanced surveillance strategies for detecting and monitoring chronic wasting disease in free-ranging cervids

The purpose of this document is to provide wildlife management agencies with the foundation upon which they can build scientifically rigorous and cost-effective surveillance and monitoring programs for chronic wasting disease (CWD) or refine their existing programs. The first chapter provides an overview of potential demographic and spatial risk factors of susceptible wildlife populations that may be exploited for CWD surveillance and monitoring. The information contained in this chapter explores historic as well as recent developments in our understanding of CWD disease dynamics. It also contains many literature references for readers who may desire a more thorough review of the topics or CWD in general. The second chapter examines methods for enhancing efforts to detect CWD on the landscape where it is not presently known to exist and focuses on the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the surveillance program. Specifically, it describes the means of exploiting current knowledge of demographic and spatial risk factors, as described in the first chapter, through a two-stage surveillance scheme that utilizes traditional design-based sampling approaches and novel statistical methods to incorporate information about the attributes of the landscape, environment, populations and individual animals into CWD surveillance activities. By accounting for these attributes, efficiencies can be gained and cost-savings can be realized. The final chapter is unique in relation to the first two chapters. Its focus is on designing programs to monitor CWD once it is discovered within a jurisdiction. Unlike the prior chapters that are more detailed or prescriptive, this chapter by design is considerably more general because providing comprehensive direction for creating monitoring programs for jurisdictions without consideration of their monitoring goals, sociopolitical constraints, or their biological systems, is not possible. Therefore, the authors draw upon their collective experiences implementing disease-monitoring programs to present the important questions to consider, potential tools, and various strategies for those wildlife management agencies endeavoring to create or maintain a CWD monitoring program. Its intent is to aid readers in creating efficient and cost-effective monitoring programs, while avoiding potential pitfalls. It is hoped that these three chapters will be useful tools for wildlife managers struggling to implement efficient and effective CWD disease management programs.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

North American Bat Monitoring Program regional protocol for surveying with stationary deployments of echolocation recording devices: Narrative version 1.0, Pacific Northwestern US

The outbreak of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and the growing awareness of the risks to bats from wind power generating facilities have driven radical changes to North American bat conservation. Over the last decade, formerly common species such as the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) have experienced unprecedented mortality rates and are now facing non-trivial extinction risk. In response to this change, federal land management agencies such as the US National Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Forest Service, US Bureau of Land Management and state wildlife management agencies such as the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and Idaho Fish and Game have invested in collaborative, interagency bat monitoring to close the gap in information about bat welfare and to inform bat conservation strategies. Bats are notoriously difficult to track and study and there remains a paucity of fundamental information about the seasonal patterns of bat activity and habitat use and population distributions and abundances. Moreover, because bats are so highly mobile and difficult to survey (e.g., nocturnal flight), this information needs to be contextualized at broad regional (e.g., 10,000 km2) and range-wide extents. Delimiting bat populations at local scales (e.g., 100 km2) is very difficult and it is not clear, for example, how a declining trend in local (e.g., a small park unit) patterns of bat activity or relative abundance should be interpreted without broader context. In recognition of these challenges, a plan for coordinated continental-scale monitoring of bats, the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) was developed (Loeb et al. 2015). The centerpiece of the plan is the use of a spatially-balanced randomized master sample of grid-cell sample units from a grid-based sampling frame to provide the architecture for collaboration and the statistical foundation for making inferences about bat populations across broad regions and entire bat geographic ranges. The plan outlines general goals, survey design, and field methods for both summertime acoustic surveys of bats as well as winter and summer counts of bats in hibernacula and maternity colonies but it does not provide field-level protocol and standard operating procedures for consistent and efficient implementation. This regional protocol provides these details for one component of NABat, the deployment of stationary acoustic detectors to record bats during summer, as is called for by the NABat plan. This protocol was written specifically to provide guidance and consistency across the Pacific Northwestern US (N. California [California Department of Fish and Wildlife Northern Region], Idaho, Washington, and Oregon; US Fish and Wildlife Service Region 1 and portion of Region 8 [in Northern California and Klamath Basin]; US Forest Service Region 6 and portions of Regions 1 and 5 in Idaho; and the Upper Columbia Basin, North Coast Cascades, and Klamath Networks of the National Park Service). This region has internal cohesion, sharing a distinct bat faunal assemblage of 15 species (with several additional species occurring on the southern periphery of the region), and a long history of collaborative bat monitoring beginning with the interagency Bat Grid Program which operated from 2003-2010 across Oregon and Washington (US Forest Service Region 6). This protocol will be coordinated and implemented by the Northwestern Bat Hub, on behalf of the collective interagency partnership. The Northwestern Bat Hub is housed on the Oregon State University-Cascades campus and leverages pooled partner funds and resources to maintain a small staff that coordinates and conducts monitoring, provides training and oversight, ensures high-quality data quality and control, and analyzes data and reports on results.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2024

Fish beta diversity associated with hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients in contrasting stream flow regimes

Understanding the role of hydrologic variation in structuring aquatic communities is crucial for successful conservation and sustainable management of native freshwater biodiversity. Partitioning beta diversity into the additive components of spatial turnover and nestedness can provide insight into the forces driving variability in fish assemblages across stream flow regimes. We examined stream fish beta diversity across hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients using long-term (1916–2016) site occurrence records ( n = 17,375) encompassing 252 species. We assessed total beta diversity (Sørensen dissimilarity), spatial turnover, and nestedness of fish assemblages in contrasting stream flow regimes across a gradient of decreasing flow stability: groundwater stable ( n = 77), groundwater ( n = 67), groundwater flashy ( n = 175), perennial runoff ( n = 141), runoff flashy ( n = 255), and intermittent ( n = 63) streams. Differences in total beta diversity among the stream flow regimes were driven predominantly (>86 %) by spatial turnover (i.e. species replacement) as opposed to nestedness (i.e. species loss or gain). Total fish beta diversity and spatial turnover were highest in streams with intermediate flow stability (groundwater flashy), while more flow-stable streams (groundwater stable and groundwater) had lower turnover and higher nestedness. Species turnover was also strongly associated with seasonal variation in hydrology across all flow regimes, but these relationships were most evident for assemblages in intermittent streams. Distance-based statistical comparisons showed significant correlations between beta diversity and anthropogenic disturbance variables, including dam density, dam storage volume and water withdrawals in catchments of groundwater stable streams, while hydrologic variables were more strongly correlated with beta diversity in streams with runoff-dominated and flashy flow regimes. The high spatial turnover of species implies that fish conservation actions would benefit from watershed-focused approaches targeting multiple streams with wide spatial distribution, as opposed to simply focusing on preserving sites with the greatest number of species.

Science of the Total Envionrment↗

USGS2010

Ecoregions and stream morphology in eastern Oklahoma

Broad-scale variables (i.e., geology, topography, climate, land use, vegetation, and soils) influence channel morphology. How and to what extent the longitudinal pattern of channel morphology is influenced by broad-scale variables is important to fluvial geomorphologists and stream ecologists. In the last couple of decades, there has been an increase in the amount of interdisciplinary research between fluvial geomorphologists and stream ecologists. In a historical context, fluvial geomorphologists are more apt to use physiographic regions to distinguish broad-scale variables, while stream ecologists are more apt to use the concept of an ecosystem to address the broad-scale variables that influence stream habitat. For this reason, we designed a study using ecoregions, which uses physical and biological variables to understand how landscapes influence channel processes. Ecoregions are delineated by similarities in geology, climate, soils, land use, and potential natural vegetation. In the fluvial system, stream form and function are dictated by processes observed throughout the fluvial hierarchy. Recognizing that stream form and function should differ by ecoregion, a study was designed to evaluate how the characteristics of stream channels differed longitudinally among three ecoregions in eastern Oklahoma, USA: Boston Mountains, Ozark Highlands, and Ouachita Mountains. Channel morphology of 149 stream reaches was surveyed in 1st- through 4th-order streams, and effects of drainage area and ecoregion on channel morphology was evaluated using multiple regressions. Differences existed (?????0.05) among ecoregions for particle size, bankfull width, and width/depth ratio. No differences existed among ecoregions for gradient or sinuosity. Particle size was smallest in the Ozark Highlands and largest in the Ouachita Mountains. Bankfull width was larger in the Ozark Highlands than in the Boston Mountains and Ouachita Mountains in larger streams. Width/depth ratios of the Boston Mountains and Ozark Highlands were not statistically different. Significant differences existed, however, between the Boston Mountains and Ozark Highlands when compared individually to the Ouachita Mountains. We found that ecoregions afforded a good spatial structure that can help in understanding longitudinal trends in stream reach morphology surveyed at the reach scale. The hierarchy of the fluvial system begins within a broad, relatively homogenous setting that imparts control on processes that affect stream function. Ecoregions provide an adequate regional division to begin a large-scale geomorphic study of processes in stream channels. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Geomorphology↗

USGS2007

Effects of ghost shrimp on zinc and cadmium in sediments from Tampa Bay, FL

This study investigated the effects that ghost shrimp have on the distribution of metals in sediment. We measured levels of HNO 3 -extractable zinc and cadmium in surface sediment, in ghost shrimp burrow walls and in sediment ejected by the ghost shrimp from their burrows, at five sandy intertidal sites in Tampa Bay. Ghost shrimp densities and their rate of sediment ejection were also quantified, as were sediment organic content and silt + clay content. Densities of ghost shrimp ( Sergio trilobata and Lepidophthalmus louisianensis ) averaged 33/m 2 at our sites, and they ejected sediment at an average rate of 28 g/burrow/day. Levels of both Zn and Cd were significantly higher in burrow walls than in surface sediments. Sediment ejected by the shrimp from their burrows had elevated levels of Zn (relative to surface sediments) at one of the sites. Sediment organic content and silt + clay content were higher in burrow-wall sediments than in ejected sediment, which in turn tended to have values above those of surface sediments. Differences in levels of HNO 3 -extractable Zn and Cd among sediment types may be a consequence of these sediments differing in other physiochemical characteristics, though the differences in metal levels remained statistically significant for some sites after correcting for differences in organic content and silt + clay content. We conclude that the presence of ghost shrimp burrows contributes to spatial heterogeneity of sedimentary metal levels, while the ghost shrimp bioturbation results in a significant flux of metals to the sediment surface and is expected to decrease heterogeneity of metal levels in sedimentary depth profiles.

Florida↗

USGS2017

Basis function models for animal movement

Advances in satellite-based data collection techniques have served as a catalyst for new statistical methodology to analyze these data. In wildlife ecological studies, satellite-based data and methodology have provided a wealth of information about animal space use and the investigation of individual-based animal–environment relationships. With the technology for data collection improving dramatically over time, we are left with massive archives of historical animal telemetry data of varying quality. While many contemporary statistical approaches for inferring movement behavior are specified in discrete time, we develop a flexible continuous-time stochastic integral equation framework that is amenable to reduced-rank second-order covariance parameterizations. We demonstrate how the associated first-order basis functions can be constructed to mimic behavioral characteristics in realistic trajectory processes using telemetry data from mule deer and mountain lion individuals in western North America. Our approach is parallelizable and provides inference for heterogenous trajectories using nonstationary spatial modeling techniques that are feasible for large telemetry datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Journal of the American Statistical Association↗

USGS2026

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Fate and transport of cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds from upstream reservoir releases in the Kansas River, Kansas, September and October 2011

Cyanobacteria cause a multitude of water-quality concerns, including the potential to produce toxins and taste-and-odor compounds. Toxins and taste-and-odor compounds may cause substantial economic and public health concerns and are of particular interest in lakes, reservoirs, and rivers that are used for drinking-water supply, recreation, or aquaculture. The Kansas River is a primary source of drinking water for about 800,000 people in northeastern Kansas. Water released from Milford Lake to the Kansas River during a toxic cyanobacterial bloom in late August 2011 prompted concerns about cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds in downstream drinking-water supplies. During September and October 2011 water-quality samples were collected to characterize the transport of cyanobacteria and associated compounds from upstream reservoirs to the Kansas River. This study is one of the first to quantitatively document the transport of cyanobacteria and associated compounds during reservoir releases and improves understanding of the fate and transport of cyanotoxins and taste-and-odor compounds downstream from reservoirs. Milford Lake was the only reservoir in the study area with an ongoing cyanobacterial bloom during reservoir releases. Concentrations of cyanobacteria and associated toxins and taste-and-odor compounds in Milford Lake (upstream from the dam) were not necessarily indicative of outflow conditions (below the dam). Total microcystin concentrations, one of the most commonly occurring cyanobacterial toxins, in Milford Lake were 650 to 7,500 times higher than the Kansas Department of Health and Environment guidance level for a public health warning (20 micrograms per liter) for most of September 2011. By comparison, total microcystin concentrations in the Milford Lake outflow generally were less than 10 percent of the concentrations in surface accumulations, and never exceeded 20 micrograms per liter. The Republican River, downstream from Milford Lake, was the only Kansas River tributary with detectable microcystin concentrations throughout the study period, and concentrations exceeded 1 microgram per liter for most of September 2011. Microcystin was detected periodically in other tributaries, but concentrations were low (less than 0.3 micrograms per liter). In contrast, the taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) were detected in all tributaries located immediately downstream from reservoirs and total concentrations generally exceeded the human detection threshold (5 to 10 nanograms per liter) from September through mid-October. Microcystin, geosmin, and MIB were not detected in the Smoky Hill River upstream from the confluence with the Republican River that forms the Kansas River. Within a week after initial reservoir releases, microcystin, geosmin, and MIB were detected throughout a 173-mile reach of the Kansas River; these compounds remained detectable throughout the reach until mid-October. Losses to groundwater when streamflows in the Kansas River were increasing indicate the potential for reservoir releases to affect groundwater quality as well as surface-water quality. Total microcystin concentrations in the Kansas River generally were highest within about 24 miles of the confluence of the Smoky Hill and Republican Rivers, and decreased downstream; concentrations exceeded 1 microgram per liter in the Kansas River upstream from Topeka during the first 2 weeks of September. Patterns in microcystin occurrence and concentration at Kansas River tributary and main-stem sites indicate that Milford Lake was the source of microcystin in the Kansas River; however, the source of taste-and-odor compounds was not as evident, possibly because multiple tributaries contributed taste-and-odor compounds to the Kansas River. Microcystin and taste-and-odor compounds co-occurred in 56 percent of samples collected, indicating co-occurrence was common. Despite frequent co-occurrence, the spatial and temporal patterns in microcystin, geosmin, and MIB were unique and did not necessarily match patterns in cyanobacterial abundance. Use of a single compound or cyanobacterial abundance alone cannot necessarily be used as an indicator of the presence or concentration of these compounds. Measured concentrations of cyanobacteria and associated compounds were substantially higher than expected concentrations based on simple dilution models at some sites and substantially lower at others, though spatial and temporal patterns were unique for individual compounds. Data were not collected in such a way to determine whether differences between measured and expected concentrations were statistically significant. Results, however, indicate that simple dilution models were not sufficient to describe the downstream transport of cyanobacteria and associated compounds in the Kansas River.

Kansas↗

USGS2015

Simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of the effects of water-management options in the North Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska

The North Platte Natural Resources District (NPNRD) has been actively collecting data and studying groundwater resources because of concerns about the future availability of the highly inter-connected surface-water and groundwater resources. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the North Platte Natural Resources District, describes a groundwater-flow model of the North Platte River valley from Bridgeport, Nebraska, extending west to 6 miles into Wyoming. The model was built to improve the understanding of the interaction of surface-water and groundwater resources, and as an optimization tool, the model is able to analyze the effects of water-management options on the simulated stream base flow of the North Platte River. The groundwater system and related sources and sinks of water were simulated using a newton formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, referred to as MODFLOW–NWT, which provided an improved ability to solve nonlinear unconfined aquifer simulations with wetting and drying of cells. Using previously published aquifer-base-altitude contours in conjunction with newer test-hole and geophysical data, a new base-of-aquifer altitude map was generated because of the strong effect of the aquifer-base topography on groundwater-flow direction and magnitude. The largest inflow to groundwater is recharge originating from water leaking from canals, which is much larger than recharge originating from infiltration of precipitation. The largest component of groundwater discharge from the study area is to the North Platte River and its tributaries, with smaller amounts of discharge to evapotranspiration and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. Recharge from infiltration of precipitation was estimated with a daily soil-water-balance model. Annual recharge from canal seepage was estimated using available records from the Bureau of Reclamation and then modified with canal-seepage potentials estimated using geophysical data. Groundwater withdrawals were estimated using land-cover data, precipitation data, and published crop water-use data. For fields irrigated with surface water and groundwater, surface-water deliveries were subtracted from the estimated net irrigation requirement, and groundwater withdrawal was assumed to be equal to any demand unmet by surface water. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and stream base flows estimated using the base-flow index method. The model was calibrated through automated adjustments using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software (PEST). PEST was used to adjust 273 parameters, grouped as hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, spatial multipliers to recharge, temporal multipliers to recharge, and two specific recharge parameters. Base flow of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebraska, streamgage near the eastern, downstream end of the model was one of the primary calibration targets. Simulated base flow reasonably matched estimated base flow for this streamgage during 1950–2008, with an average difference of 15 percent. Overall, 1950–2008 simulated base flow followed the trend of the estimated base flow reasonably well, in cases with generally increasing or decreasing base flow from the start of the simulation to the end. Simulated base flow also matched estimated base flow reasonably well for most of the North Platte River tributaries with estimated base flow. Average simulated groundwater budgets during 1989–2008 were nearly three times larger for irrigation seasons than for non-irrigation seasons. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used with the Groundwater-Management Process for the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, MODFLOW–2005, to provide a tool for the NPNRD to better understand how water-management decisions could affect stream base flows of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebr., streamgage in a future period from 2008 to 2019 under varying climatic conditions. The simulation-optimization model was constructed to analyze the maximum increase in simulated stream base flow that could be obtained with the minimum amount of reductions in groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. A second analysis extended the first to analyze the simulated base-flow benefit of groundwater withdrawals along with application of intentional recharge, that is, water from canals being released into rangeland areas with sandy soils. With optimized groundwater withdrawals and intentional recharge, the maximum simulated stream base flow was 15–23 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) greater than with no management at all, or 10–15 ft 3 /s larger than with managed groundwater withdrawals only. These results indicate not only the amount that simulated stream base flow can be increased by these management options, but also the locations where the management options provide the most or least benefit to the simulated stream base flow. For the analyses in this report, simulated base flow was best optimized by reductions in groundwater withdrawals north of the North Platte River and in the western half of the area. Intentional recharge sites selected by the optimization had a complex distribution but were more likely to be closer to the North Platte River or its tributaries. Future users of the simulation-optimization model will be able to modify the input files as to type, location, and timing of constraints, decision variables of groundwater withdrawals by zone, and other variables to explore other feasible management scenarios that may yield different increases in simulated future base flow of the North Platte River.

Nebraska↗

USGS2011

Multilocus phylogeography and population structure of common eiders breeding in North America and Scandinavia

Aim Glacial refugia during the Pleistocene had major impacts on the levels and spatial apportionment of genetic diversity of species in northern latitude ecosystems. We characterized patterns of population subdivision, and tested hypotheses associated with locations of potential Pleistocene refugia and the relative contribution of these refugia to the post-glacial colonization of North America and Scandinavia by common eiders ( Somateria mollissima ). Specifically, we evaluated localities hypothesized as ice-free areas or glacial refugia for other Arctic vertebrates, including Beringia, the High Arctic Canadian Archipelago, Newfoundland Bank, Spitsbergen Bank and north-west Norway. Location Alaska, Canada, Norway and Sweden. Methods Molecular data from 12 microsatellite loci, the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, and two nuclear introns were collected and analysed for 15 populations of common eiders ( n = 716) breeding throughout North America and Scandinavia. Population genetic structure, historical population fluctuations and gene flow were inferred using F -statistics, analyses of molecular variance, and multilocus coalescent analyses. Results Significant inter-population variation in allelic and haplotypic frequencies were observed (nuclear DNA F ST = 0.004–0.290; mtDNA Φ ST = 0.051–0.927). Whereas spatial differentiation in nuclear genes was concordant with subspecific designations, geographic proximity was more predictive of inter-population variance in mitochondrial DNA haplotype frequency. Inferences of historical population demography were consistent with restriction of common eiders to four geographic areas during the Last Glacial Maximum: Belcher Islands, Newfoundland Bank, northern Alaska and Svalbard. Three of these areas coincide with previously identified glacial refugia: Newfoundland Bank, Beringia and Spitsbergen Bank. Gene-flow and clustering analyses indicated that the Beringian refugium contributed little to common eider post-glacial colonization of North America, whereas Canadian, Scandinavian and southern Alaskan post-glacial colonization is likely to have occurred in a stepwise fashion from the same glacial refugium. Main conclusions Concordance of proposed glacial refugia used by common eiders and other Arctic species indicates that Arctic and subarctic refugia were important reservoirs of genetic diversity during the Pleistocene. Furthermore, suture zones identified at MacKenzie River, western Alaska/Aleutians and Scandinavia coincide with those identified for other Arctic vertebrates, suggesting that these regions were strong geographic barriers limiting dispersal from Pleistocene refugia.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2024

Characterizing vegetation and return periods in avalanche paths using lidar and aerial imagery

Snow avalanches are a hazard and ecological disturbance across mountain landscapes worldwide. Understanding how avalanche frequency affects forests and vegetation improves infrastructure planning, risk management, and avalanche forecasting. We implemented a novel approach using lidar, aerial imagery, and a random forest model to classify imagery-observed vegetation within avalanche paths in southern Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. We calculated spatially explicit avalanche return periods using a physically based spatial interpolation method and characterized the vegetation within those return period zones. The automated vegetation classification model differed slightly between avalanche paths, but the combination of lidar and spectral signature metrics provided the best accuracy (88–92 percent) for predicting vegetation classes within complex avalanche terrain rather than lidar or spectral signature metrics alone. The highest frequency avalanche return periods were broadly characterized by grassland and shrubland, but the influence of topography greatly influences the vegetation classes as well as the return periods. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in lidar-derived vegetation canopy height exist between categorical return periods. The ability to characterize vegetation within various avalanche return periods using remote sensing data provides land use planners and avalanche forecasters a tool for assessing the spatial extent of large-magnitude avalanches in individual avalanche paths.

Montana↗

USGS2011

Effects of sample size, number of markers, and allelic richness on the detection of spatial genetic pattern

The influence of study design on the ability to detect the effects of landscape pattern on gene flow is one of the most pressing methodological gaps in landscape genetic research. To investigate the effect of study design on landscape genetics inference, we used a spatially-explicit, individual-based program to simulate gene flow in a spatially continuous population inhabiting a landscape with gradual spatial changes in resistance to movement. We simulated a wide range of combinations of number of loci, number of alleles per locus and number of individuals sampled from the population. We assessed how these three aspects of study design influenced the statistical power to successfully identify the generating process among competing hypotheses of isolation-by-distance, isolation-by-barrier, and isolation-by-landscape resistance using a causal modelling approach with partial Mantel tests. We modelled the statistical power to identify the generating process as a response surface for equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions after introduction of isolation-by-landscape resistance. All three variables (loci, alleles and sampled individuals) affect the power of causal modelling, but to different degrees. Stronger partial Mantel r correlations between landscape distances and genetic distances were found when more loci were used and when loci were more variable, which makes comparisons of effect size between studies difficult. Number of individuals did not affect the accuracy through mean equilibrium partial Mantel r , but larger samples decreased the uncertainty (increasing the precision) of equilibrium partial Mantel r estimates. We conclude that amplifying more (and more variable) loci is likely to increase the power of landscape genetic inferences more than increasing number of individuals.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2013

A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods

Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c -statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth).

Milan District↗