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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Diversity and abundance of wild bees in an agriculturally dominated landscape of eastern Colorado

Agricultural intensification has resulted in loss of natural and semi-natural habitats impacting several important ecosystem services. One group of organisms that has suffered greatly are the bees and hence pollination, the supporting ecosystem service they complete. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has implemented conservation practices designed to improve habitat for pollinators in agroecosystems by paying to recover environmentally sensitive agricultural land from production, and restoring them by planting native grass mixes, pollinator-friendly legumes and wildflowers. Our study, aimed at demonstrating the efficacy of this practice, measured diversity and abundance of wild bee genera in the agricultural landscape of eastern semiarid regions of Colorado, USA, where CRP practices were implemented. Over our 3-year study, we obtained a total of 16,207 bees belonging to 51 genera. We found inconsistent differences in number of bee genera and abundance of bees in CRP fields supplemented with wildflowers compared to those with conventional grass seed mix. However, we observed only a 40–80% overlap in bee genera between fields supplemented with wildflowers and those with grass seed mixes indicating that diversity was enhanced by having both habitats. With the caveat that 3 years is a very short period to see appreciable changes, our results suggest that recovering environmentally sensitive land can strengthen pollinator populations in landscapes dominated by agricultural activities. In addition, periodic evaluation and maintenance of these recovered lands will further support the efforts towards revitalization of ecosystem services in these areas.

Colorado↗
USGS2006

Response of Everglades tree islands to environmental change

Tree islands are centers of biodiversity within the Florida Everglades, USA, but the factors controlling their distribution, formation, and development are poorly understood. We use pollen assemblages from tree islands throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem to reconstruct the timing of tree island formation, patterns of development, and response to specific climatic and environmental stressors. These data indicate that fixed (teardrop-shaped) and strand tree islands developed well before substantial human alteration of the system, with initial tree island vegetation in place between 3500 and 500 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP), depending on the location in the Everglades wetland. Tree island development appears to have been triggered by regional- to global-scale climatic events at 2800 cal yr BP, 1600–1500 cal yr BP, 1200–1000 cal yr BP (early Medieval Warm Period), and 500–200 cal yr BP (Little Ice Age). These periods correspond to drought intervals documented in Central and South America and periods of southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The records indicate a coherence of climate patterns in both subtropical North America and the Northern Hemisphere Neotropics. Water management practices of the 20th century altered plant communities and size of tree islands throughout the Everglades. Responses range from loss of tree islands due to artificially long hydroperiods and deep water to expansion of tree islands after flow reductions. These data provide evidence for the rapidity of tree island response to specific hydrologic change and facilitate prediction of the response to future changes associated with Everglades restoration plans.

Florida↗
USGS2023

No evidence for cottonwood forest decline along a flow-augmented western U.S. river

In contrast to many other arid region rivers, streamflow in the South Platte River is heavily augmented by trans-basin water imports and irrigation return flows. Hydrological changes began in the 1880s, resulting in channel narrowing and the development of a continuous Populus-Salix forest by the mid-twentieth century. We assessed the composition, structure and regeneration status of the riparian forest and identified environmental variables affecting annual Populus deltoides tree growth. We sampled forest structure at four sites in 2015, and conducted dendroecological analysis at seven additional sites in 2019. The riparian forest was dominated by P. deltoides , which occurred at all sites, comprising 79% of total tree basal area and 62% of total tree density. Age structure data indicated ongoing though episodic recruitment of P. deltoides , at least over the past ~130 years. We tested 14 linear mixed effects models to describe the effect of climate and streamflow on individual tree growth (modeled as the log of BAI, n = 237 trees). The most parsimonious model selected with AICc explained 28.6% of BAI variability, and included hydrology and climate factors during the growing season (i.e., June–August streamflow, June–July PDSI), some aspects of off-season (i.e., previous November and March) streamflow, along with tree age and study site effects. The riparian forest developed in response to, and has been maintained by, current climate conditions and water management regimes. It may be negatively affected by future climate change and increased urban water demand in the basin.

Colorado↗
USGS2026

An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is one of the fastest changing regions on the planet and an emerging resource frontier for fisheries. Here, we present the Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index created by merging ecosystem information across food web trophic levels, from phytoplankton to fish and penguins, to quantify the ecological value of marine areas around the Antarctic continent. We find that coastal polynyas - areas of reduced sea-ice - have Index values 31–72% higher than surrounding areas, suggesting that these areas are biologically valuable hot spots for a number of ice-dependent Antarctic Species. Using output from an Earth system model to generate future projections of the Index, we find that high-value locations, often within polynyas, are likely to continue to be valuable throughout the 21st century despite environmental changes. The Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index indicates that penguins lose importance as their habitat becomes increasingly unsuitable, so protecting high-value habitat areas may be critical for these species. This study also shows that while many high-value Index areas are within existing or proposed Marine Protected Areas, there are several opportunities for adopting additional protection, particularly in East Antarctica and the Amundsen Sea.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2007

Hydrographic characterization of two tidal creeks with implications for watershed land use, flushing times, and benthic production

Many coastal ecosystems are undergoing anthropogenic stress from large increases in population and urbanization. In many regions changes in freshwater and material inputs to the coastal zone are altering the biogeochemical and biological capacities of ecosystems. Despite increased watershed inputs, large tidal volumes and flushing indicative of macrotidal estuaries can modulate the fate of introduced materials masking some of the symptoms of eutrophication. The Land Use Coastal Ecosystem Study (LU-CES) examined linkages between land use and environmental properties of Malind and Okatee Creeks in South Carolina from 2001 to 2004. The objectives of this particular study were to assess the hydrography of the two macrotidal creek ecosystems, explore differences in dissolved oxygen (DO), and develop a better understanding of the variations in primary and benthic secondary production in southeastern creek ecosystems. Depth, pH, salinity, and DO were reduced and more variable in Malind Creek than in Okatee Creek, although both creeks had strong semidiurnal frequencies in salinity time signatures. While time series analyses of DO saturation in Malind Creek revealed a dominant semidiurnal pattern, Okatee Creek had a distinctly diel DO pattern. The strongly semidiurnal fluctuations in DO and reduced flushing time indicated that biological processes were not fast enough to influence DO in Malind Creek. The Okatee Creek system had a much greater storage volume, a wider marsh, and a dominant 25-h DO frequency. These attributes contributed to an estimated 8-10 times more phytoplankton-based carbon in Okatee Creek and twice the annual benthic production. As expected from their proximity to the upland, low surface area, and high organic content, both ecosystems were net heterotrophic. This fundamental understanding of tidal creek hydrography is being used to help define linkages among differential watershed land uses, flushing characteristics, and levels of biological production in coastal ecosystems of the southeastern United States.

South Carolina↗
USGS2024

Vulnerability to sea-level rise varies among estuaries and habitat types: Lessons learned from a network of surface elevation tables in Puget Sound

Estuarine systems that provide valuable ecosystem services to society and important foraging and rearing habitat for fish and wildlife species continue to undergo degradation. In Puget Sound, WA, as much as 70–80% of historic estuarine habitat has been lost to anthropogenic development, and continued losses are expected through the end of the twenty-first century due to rising sea levels. To evaluate whether Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats will keep pace with current and projected sea-level rise (SLR), we assessed vertical rates of elevation change from a regional network of surface elevation tables and marker horizons (SET-MH). Over the past two decades, SET-MH equipment has been installed throughout a variety of habitats in five Puget Sound estuaries: the Nisqually, Snohomish, Stillaguamish, and Skagit River estuaries, and Padilla Bay. These data provide a unique opportunity to assess elevation change and habitat resilience across a spatiotemporal and environmental gradient. We observed different rates of surface elevation change among estuaries and habitats (Nisqually = 4.64 ± 2.81 mm/year, Snohomish = 5.71 ± 5.83 mm/year, Stillaguamish = 12.82 ± 10.29 mm/year, Skagit = 16.13 ± 7.57 mm/year, Padilla = − 1.25 ± 1.58 mm/year). The highest rates were found at restoring sites with regular sediment input in the Stillaguamish and Skagit estuaries, whereas rates were consistently negative at low elevation sites in sediment starved Padilla Bay. Many sites in Puget Sound appear to be keeping pace with current rates of relative SLR, and some areas are on track to exceed projected rates through the end of the century. These findings indicate that Puget Sound’s estuarine habitats can be resilient to rising tidal levels—as long as sediment delivery is maintained.

Washington↗
USGS2014

Soil formation: Chapter 6

Soil formation reflects the complex interaction of many factors, among the most important of which are (i) the nature of the soil parent material, (ii) regional climate, (iii) organisms, including humans, (iv) topography and (v) time. These processes operate in Earth's critical zone; the thin veneer of our planet where rock meets life. Understanding the operation of these soil-forming factors requires an interdisciplinary approach and is a necessary predicate to charactering soil processes and functions, mitigating soil degradation and adapting soil management to environmental change. In this chapter, we discuss how these soil-forming factors operate both singly and in concert in natural and human modified environments. We emphasize the role that soil organic matter plays in these processes to provide context for understanding the benefits that it bestows on humanity.

Book chapter↗
USGS2016

Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census ( http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/ ), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports ( http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/ ).

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2004

Economic analysis of alternative bison and elk management practices on the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park: A comparison of visitor and household responses

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the National Park Service (NPS) are preparing a management plan for bison and elk inhabiting the National Elk Refuge (NER) and Grand Teton National Park (GTNP). These animals are part of the bison and elk herds in Jackson Hole, one of the largest concentrations of freeranging bison and elk in the world. A range of alternatives for managing the bison and elk herds in the project area will be developed in an Environmental Impact Statement. The EIS will likely include such issues as habitat management, disease management, winter-feeding and hunting programs related to the NER and GTNP. The purposes of this study are to determine how the current management and EIS alternatives for bison and elk inhabiting the NER and GTNP would change: Visitor use Total visitor expenditures in the local and regional economy Local area employment and income in the local and regional economy Visitor net economic benefits Acceptability of individual elk and bison management practices to visitors and household living in Teton County, rest of Wyoming, and rest of the United States. Assessing public attitudes and economic effects for different EIS alternatives can provide managers with valuable information regarding the advantages and disadvantages of these alternatives. Economic issues such as local job and income effects are often raised by interest groups opposed to changes in current agency management actions. Having objective data on what the job and income impacts are can help to defuse that issue. Survey data on visitor and public preferences is also useful to supplement the traditional public involvement process conducted as part of the EIS process. This is because the survey reaches visitors and a broad geographic array of residents who may not typically participate in the traditional EIS public involvement process. That is, the survey reflects the effort of the EIS planning team reaching out to the public, rather than requiring the public to come to the EIS meeting locations. Attendance at public meetings is often inconvenient for occasional visitors to the NER and GTNP who frequently live long distances from the relevant FWS and NPS offices. It is also inconvenient for residents of states outside the state where the resource is located.

Wyoming↗
USGS2009

Modeling habitat of the desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the Mojave and parts of the Sonoran Deserts of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona

Habitat modeling is an important tool used to simulate the potential distribution of a species for a variety of basic and applied questions. The desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a federally listed threatened species in the Mojave Desert and parts of the Sonoran Desert of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Land managers in this region require reliable information about the potential distribution of desert tortoise habitat to plan conservation efforts, guide monitoring activities, monitor changes in the amount and quality of habitat available, minimize and mitigate disturbances, and ultimately to assess the status of the tortoise and its habitat toward recovery of the species. By applying information from the literature and our knowledge or assumptions of environmental variables that could potentially explain variability in the quality of desert tortoise habitat, we developed a quantitative habitat model for the desert tortoise using an extensive set of field-collected presence data. Sixteen environmental data layers were converted into a grid covering the study area and merged with the desert tortoise presence data that we gathered for input into the Maxent habitat-modeling algorithm. This model provides output of the statistical probability of habitat potential that can be used to map potential areas of desert tortoise habitat. This type of analysis, while robust in its predictions of habitat, does not account for anthropogenic changes that may have altered habitat with relatively high potential into areas with lower potential.

California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona↗
USGS2010

Recent U.S. Geological Survey studies in the Tintina Gold Province, Alaska, United States, and Yukon, Canada-Results of a 5-year project

This report presents summary papers of work conducted between 2002 and 2007 under a 5-year project effort funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resources Program, formerly entitled 'Tintina Metallogenic Province: Integrated Studies on Geologic Framework, Mineral Resources, and Environmental Signatures.' As the project progressed, the informal title changed from 'Tintina Metallogenic Province' project to 'Tintina Gold Province' project, the latter being more closely aligned with the terminology used by the mineral industry. As Goldfarb and others explain in the first chapter of this report, the Tintina Gold Province is a convenient term used by the mineral exploration community for a 'region of very varied geology, gold deposit types, and resource potential'. The Tintina Gold Province encompasses roughly 150,000 square kilometers, bounded by the Kaltag-Tintina fault system on the north and the Farewell-Denali fault system on the south. It extends westward in a broad arc, some 200 km wide, from northernmost British Columbia, through the Yukon, through southeastern and central Alaska, to southwestern Alaska. The climate is subarctic and, in Alaska, includes major physiographic delineations and ecoregions such as the Yukon-Tanana Upland, Tanana-Kuskokwim Lowlands, Yukon River Lowlands, and the Kuskokwim Mountains. Although the Tintina Gold Province is historically important for some of the very first placer and lode gold discoveries in northern North America, it has recently seen resurgence in mineral exploration, development, and mining activity. This resurgence is due to both new discoveries (for example, Pogo and Donlin Creek) and to the application of modern extraction methods to previously known, but economically restrictive, low-grade, bulk-tonnage gold resources (for example, Fort Knox, Clear Creek, and Scheelite Dome). In addition, the Tintina Gold Province hosts numerous other mineral deposit types, possessing both high and low sulfide content, which are not currently in development.

Alaska, Yukon↗
USGS1999

Benthic foraminifers in the regional monitoring program’s San Francisco Estuary samples

For over three decades, sand-sized protozoans known as foraminifers have made contributions to our understanding of environmental problems in urban areas (Alve, 1991; Clark, 1971; Ellison et al., 1986; Watkins, 1961). Benthic foraminiferal assemblages are particularly sensitive pollution indicators in estuarine and coastal areas (Alve, 1995) because they vary spatially and temporally in relation to environmental variables and can respond to almost imperceptible physical change in the environment due to pollutants. Foraminifers also have similar distributions to those of shallow marine invertebrates (Buzas and Culver, 1991, 1993), and can therefore act as proxies for larger organisms in polluted environments. In addition, the ability of foraminifers to respond to environmental degradation is enhanced because they reproduce quickly, as often as every three months to one year (Murray, 1991).

Report↗
USGS2022

Sea-level rise and warming mediate coastal groundwater discharge in the Arctic

Groundwater discharge is an important mechanism through which fresh water and associated solutes are delivered to the ocean. Permafrost environments have traditionally been considered hydrogeologically inactive, yet with accelerated climate change and permafrost thaw, groundwater flow paths are activating and opening subsurface connections to the coastal zone. While warming has the potential to increase land-sea connectivity, sea-level change has the potential to alter land-sea hydraulic gradients and enhance coastal permafrost thaw, resulting in a complex interplay that will govern future groundwater discharge dynamics along Arctic coastlines. Here, we use a recently developed permafrost hydrological model that simulates variable-density groundwater flow and salinity-dependent freeze-thaw to investigate the impacts of sea-level change and land and ocean warming on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and salinity of coastal groundwater discharge. Results project both an increase and decrease in discharge with climate change depending on the rate of warming and sea-level change. Under high warming and low sea-level rise scenarios, results show up to a 58% increase in coastal groundwater discharge by 2100 due to the formation of a supra-permafrost aquifer that enhances freshwater delivery to the coastal zone. With higher rates of sea-level rise, the increase in discharge due to warming is reduced to 21% as sea-level rise decreased land-sea hydraulic gradients. Under lower warming scenarios for which supra-permafrost groundwater flow was not established, discharge decreased by up to 26% between 1980 and 2100 for high sea-level rise scenarios and increased only 8% under low sea-level rise scenarios. Thus, regions with higher warming rates and lower rates of sea-level change (e.g. northern Nunavut, Canada) will experience a greater increase in discharge than regions with lower warming rates and higher rates of sea-level change. The magnitude, location and salinity of discharge have important implications for ecosystem function, water quality, and carbon dynamics in coastal zones.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2006

Modeling wetland plant community response to assess water-level regulation scenarios in the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin

The International Joint Commission has recently completed a five-year study (2000-2005) to review the operation of structures controlling the flows and levels of the Lake Ontario - St. Lawrence River system. In addition to addressing the multitude of stakeholder interests, the regulation plan review also considers environmental sustainability and integrity of wetlands and various ecosystem components. The present paper outlines the general approach, scientific methodology and applied management considerations of studies quantifying the relationships between hydrology and wetland plant assemblages (% occurrence, surface area) in Lake Ontario and the Upper and Lower St. Lawrence River. Although similar study designs were used across the study region, different methodologies were required that were specifically adapted to suit the important regional differences between the lake and river systems, range in water-level variations, and confounding factors (geomorphic types, exposure, sediment characteristics, downstream gradient of water quality, origin of water masses in the Lower River). Performance indicators (metrics), such as total area of wetland in meadow marsh vegetation type, that link wetland response to water levels will be used to assess the effects of different regulation plans under current and future (climate change) water-supply scenarios.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2005

A comparison of the influences of urbanization in contrasting environmental settings on stream benthic algal assemblages

Patterns of stream benthic algal assemblages along urbanization gradients were investigated in three metropolitan areas-Boston (BOS), Massachusetts; Birmingham (BIR), Alabama; and Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah. An index of urban intensity derived from socioeconomic, infrastructure, and land-use characteristics was used as a measure of urbanization. Of the various attributes of the algal assemblages, species composition changed along gradients of urban intensity in a more consistent manner than biomass or diversity. In urban streams, the relative abundance of pollution-tolerant species was often higher than in less affected streams. Shifts in assemblage composition were associated primarily with increased levels of conductivity, nutrients, and alterations in physical habitat. Water mineralization and nutrients were the most important determinants of assemblage composition in the BOS and SLC study areas; flow regime and grazers were key factors in the BIR study area. Species composition of algal assemblages differed significantly among geographic regions, and no particular algal taxa were found to be universal indicators of urbanization. Patterns in algal biomass and diversity along urban gradients varied among study areas, depending on local environmental conditions and habitat alteration. Biomass and diversity increased with urbanization in the BOS area, apparently because of increased nutrients, light, and flow stability in urban streams, which often are regulated by dams. Biomass and diversity decreased with urbanization in the BIR study area because of intensive fish grazing and less stable flow regime. In the SLC study area, correlations between algal biomass, diversity, and urban intensity were positive but weak. Thus, algal responses to urbanization differed considerably among the three study areas. We concluded that the wide range of responses of benthic algae to urbanization implied that tools for stream bioassessment must be region specific. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

American Fisheries Society Symposium↗
USGS2009

Changes in reproductive biomarkers in an endangered fish species (bonytail chub, Gila elegans) exposed to low levels of organic wastewater compounds in a controlled experiment

In arid regions of the southwestern United States, municipal wastewater treatment plants commonly discharge treated effluent directly into streams that would otherwise be dry most of the year. A better understanding is needed of how effluent-dependent waters (EDWs) differ from more natural aquatic ecosystems and the ecological effect of low levels of environmentally persistent organic wastewater compounds (OWCs) with distance from the pollutant source. In a controlled experiment, we found 26 compounds common to municipal effluent in treatment raceways all at concentrations <1.0 μg/L. Male bonytail chub (Gila elegans) in tanks containing municipal effluent had significantly lower levels of 11-ketotestosterone (p = 0.021) yet higher levels of 17β-estradiol (p = 0.002) and vitellogenin (p = 0.036) compared to control male fish. Female bonytail chub in treatment tanks had significantly lower concentrations of 17β-estradiol than control females (p = 0.001). The normally inverse relationship between primary male and female sex hormones, expected in un-impaired fish, was greatly decreased in treatment (r = 0.00) versus control (r = −0.66) female fish. We found a similar, but not as significant, trend between treatment (r = −0.45) and control (r = −0.82) male fish. Measures of fish condition showed no significant differences between male or female fish housed in effluent or clean water. Inter-sex condition did not occur and testicular and ovarian cells appeared normal for the respective developmental stage and we observed no morphological alteration in fish. The population-level impacts of these findings are uncertain. Studies examining the long-term, generational and behavioral effects to aquatic organisms chronically exposed to low levels of OWC mixtures are needed.

Aquatic Toxicology↗
USGS2004

Effects of environmental change on groundwater recharge in the Desert Southwest

Climate and other environmental conditions have varied in the past, and will almost certainly vary significantly in the near future. The response of groundwater recharge to changes in environmental conditions is thus a matter of active concem for water-resources management. The major mechanisms for this response of recharge are three-fold. First, changes in vegetation communities can shift the water balance at the base of the root zone, increasing or decreasing the amount of recharge. Second, variations in the amount of runoff can affect channel recharge. Finally, shifts in the seasonality of precipitation can strongly affect the fraction that is evapotranspired back into the atmosphere and thus affect the amount that becomes recharge. Increases in recharge (defined as the water flux across the water table) may in some cases significantly increase fluxes through regional aquifers, but in other cases, depending on the hydrogeology, may only result in increased streamflow or evapotranspiration within the recharge area. Basins with relatively low maximum elevations, deep water tables, thin soils, and highly permeable recharge areas experience the largest recharge response to increases in precipitation. The relatively well-known paleoenvironmental history of the American Southwest can be compared with various lines of evidence for changes in recharge. These lines of evidence include timing of speleothem formation, chloride profiles in thick vadose zones, changes in water table shown by subsurface calcite precipitation, and expanded groundwater discharge areas. This evidence indicates that the wettest periods of the past 25 ka, which were generally between 20 and 13 ka, were also periods of enhanced vadose zone fluxes and aquifer discharge. Climate-driven changes in recharge appear to have been substantially mediated through changes in vegetation. This evidence for strong recharge response to past environmental changes indicates that expected future climate and environmental change will also cause changes in recharge. The ability to adequately predict future changes in recharge will depend on developing process-based numerical models that can simulate coupled climate/vegetation/ vadose zone processes and incorporate the outputs into groundwater/surface water models that can resolve processes at scales ranging from the hillslope to the basin.

Water Science and Application↗
USGS2022

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, census-based carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

Florida↗