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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Effect of copper mill waste material on benthic invertebrates and zooplankton diversity and abundance

Copper (Cu) stamp mill mining in North America from the early 1900s produced a pulverized ore by-product now known as stamp sands (SS). In a mining operation near the city of Gay (Michigan, USA), SS were originally deposited near a Lake Superior beach, but erosion and wave action have moved many SS into beaches and reefs that are critical spawning and nursery areas for native fish (e.g., Lake Whitefish). Larval and juvenile native fish consume zooplankton and benthic invertebrates during their development, and many of these invertebrate taxa may be sensitive to metal contamination from the SS. Here, we sampled the invertebrate community from beaches with high SS, moderate SS and low SS, as well as a control beach 58 km from the source of the SS. The high SS site was characterized by fewer benthic taxa, and less density of several taxa than the low SS site, especially benthic copepods. All beaches had comparable zooplankton diversity, but the abundance was ~ 2 orders of magnitude lower at the high SS site. Cu and several other metals were elevated at beaches with more SS. We found support for associations between benthic density and diversity with depth (positive effect) and Cu concentration (negative effect). Cu concentration was a better predictor of declines in benthic invertebrate abundance and diversity than SS although sensitivity to Cu varied among taxa. We also observed that the relationship between Cu concentration and SS was non-linear, and highly variable. For example, 149 mg Cu/kg dry weight sediment is a consensus threshold used in the literature to identify Cu toxicity, but the prediction interval for estimating that concentration of Cu from measurements of SS is 26-851 mg Cu/kg dry weight. A better predictive model of this relationship would be beneficial to develop an understanding of what level of SS reduction would prevent Cu impacts on invertebrates.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

Assessing potential collateral effects on amphibians from insecticide applications for flea control and plague mitigation

Ideal disease mitigation measures for wildlife are safe and benign for target species, non-target organisms, the environment, and humans. Identifying collateral (i.e., unintended) effects is a key consideration in implementing such actions. Deltamethrin dust and fipronil-laced baits represent a group of insecticides that target fleas (pulicides) and are used to control flea (Siphonaptera) vectors of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis to protect prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp.) and their plague-susceptible obligate predators, endangered black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ). A variety of animals use prairie dog burrows as refuge, which potentially exposes them to deltamethrin, and to fipronil and its metabolites in fecal pellets excreted by prairie dogs and other mammals that have eaten fipronil baits. We assessed the potential effects of deltamethrin and fipronil residues on survival, body mass, and activity of western tiger salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ), a burrow-inhabiting amphibian. Pulicides were applied at realistic concentrations in mesocosms mimicking burrows. Treatments included (1) deltamethrin dust and non-treated prairie dog fecal pellets, (2) prairie dog fecal pellets containing fipronil and fipronil sulfone, and (3) un-treated prairie dog fecal pellets as controls. All 29 salamanders survived the experiment. We did not detect pulicide residues in any control salamanders. Fipronil sulfone was detected in tissues from 3 of 10 salamanders in the fipronil treatment and deltamethrin was detected in tissues from 9 of 11 salamanders in the deltamethrin treatment. Salamanders were observed outside of burrows more frequently after treatments than before. Deltamethrin concentrations in whole body samples correlated positively with the amount of time salamanders were inside burrows. Acute, lethal effects were not detected, but uptake of deltamethrin and, to a lesser extent fipronil sulfone, into salamander tissues indicated the potential for long-term effects on this non-target species. Identifying potential collateral effects is an important aspect of evaluating mitigation actions implemented to protect endangered species.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2025

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2025

A partner-driven decision support model to inform the reintroduction of bull trout

Assessments of species reintroductions involve a series of complex decisions that include human perspectives and ecological contexts. Here, we present a reintroduction assessment involving bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) using a structured decision-making process. We approached this assessment by engaging partners representing public utilities, government agencies, and Tribes with shared interests in a potential reintroduction. These individuals identified objectives, decision alternatives, and ecological scenarios that were incorporated into a co-produced simulation-based model of potential reintroduction outcomes. The model included mathematical representations of habitat availability, life history expression, and assumptions regarding constraints on potential bull trout populations. Within each recipient stream, partners chose to explore a wide range of decision alternatives and simulated scenarios affecting reintroduction success. Results suggested that 1) reintroductions using eggs or adults were most optimal, 2) adding more individuals resulted in diminishing returns, 3) access to migratory habitat could improve success, and 4) the diversity of opportunities for life history expression led to improved reintroduction opportunities. In addition, modeled scenarios indicated some recipient streams consistently produced lower abundance of reintroduced bull trout. This work contributes a novel example to a growing portfolio of reintroduction assessments that may inform future conservation for bull trout and many other species facing similar challenges.

Washington↗
USGS2025

Catchment prioritization for freshwater mussel conservation in the Northeastern United States based on distribution modelling

Freshwater mussels are critical to the health of freshwater systems, but their populations are declining dramatically throughout the world. The limited resources available for freshwater mussel conservation necessitates the geographic prioritization of conservation-related actions. However, lack of knowledge about freshwater mussel spatial distributions hinders decision making in this context. In this study, we assessed the distribution of twelve native freshwater mussel species across six Northeastern states (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine) in the United States using data collected from lentic and lotic environments by eight state agencies. We first modeled individual distributions using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and then compiled distribution models to assess the distribution of freshwater mussel species richness. We also determined geographic prioritization for three conservation-related actions: species surveys, land protection, and population restoration of species of high conservation concern. We found that the percent of catchments predicted to have species occurrence (based on a probability threshold) varied across species, with Elliptio complanata (Eastern elliptio) predicted to occur in the greatest percent of available catchments (33.92%) and Alasmidonta heterodon (Dwarf wedgemussel) expected in the smallest percent (5.30%). The predicted overall species richness within our modeled catchments ranged from zero to all twelve species, with an average of two species per catchment. Although conservation priorities vary depending on the conservation action of interest, we found some areas of consistent importance including much of Maine and the southern reaches of the Connecticut River. An improved understanding of freshwater mussel distribution in a landscape framework will enable managers to implement more precise and efficient conservation interventions for these essential aquatic species.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2025

Doe diligence: A regional analysis of antlerless deer harvest regulations in the Midwestern United States of America.

Wildlife management in the United States of America (US) is primarily delegated to the individual states wherein state wildlife agencies manage wildlife populations to achieve multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives. White-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) are an important species in the Midwestern US whose populations are primarily managed through recreational hunting. Managers aim to adjust populations by altering the harvest of antlerless (usually female) animals by changing the number of harvest permits available, hunting season lengths, or applying incentive programs like earn-a-buck, where a hunter must harvest an antlerless deer before they may harvest an antlered deer. We estimated the effect on antlerless deer harvest from changes in these regulations and changes in the number of licensed hunters across eight states in the Midwest. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate individual state and regional (i.e., across all states) effects. We found that increasing antlerless harvest permits increased antlerless harvest; however, this effect plateaued as the number of available permits increased. Providing unlimited harvest permits increased harvest, but the same increases were achieved by minimally increasing the number of limited harvest permits. Increasing the length of hunting season had a generally positive effect on antlerless harvest but the effect was non-linear and state dependent. The earn-a-buck incentive program resulted in the largest estimated increase in harvest. Finally, the number of licensed deer hunters in a state had a strong positive effect on the number of antlerless deer harvested. Our findings show that commonly applied changes in harvest regulations have a weak effect on the number of antlerless deer harvested, highlighting the challenges facing deer managers in the Midwestern US.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2025

Isotopic niche plasticity of American alligators within the southern Everglades

Hydrologic alterations within the Everglades have degraded American alligator ( Alligator mississippiensis ) habitat, reduced prey base, and increased physiological stress. Alligator body condition declined across many management areas from 2000 through 2014, prompting us to investigate the relationship between their intraspecific isotopic niche dynamics and body condition. Alligators within the estuary had a larger niche driven by a wider range in stable carbon isotope ratios than those sampled in freshwater habitats. Spatially, model predictability was higher at the smaller scale, reflecting the variability in basal sources and biochemistry among capture sites. Male niches were often larger than those of females, driven by wider ranges of δ 13 C values, suggesting that they differ in their proportional use of habitats and or resources. However, the similar ranges of δ 15 N values indicated both sexes foraged within the same trophic level. Furthermore, while not significantly different, large alligators often had a larger niche with elevated δ 15 N values compared to medium-sized alligators. Although alligators utilize similar stable carbon and nitrogen isotope pools through time, there was considerable temporal variability. These temporal variations in alligators’ isotopic niche were likely influenced by seasonal hydrologic fluctuations within each site, with their niches often being larger in the spring captures than the fall captures. Alligators’ body condition estimates were correlated with intraspecific niche characteristics, including the mean centroid distance between sexes and the interaction between male and female niche size and overlap, within a site, capture period, and year. The variability in intraspecific niche dynamics, landscape heterogeneity, and dynamic hydrology are considerations for designing sustainable management strategies to conserve and enhance alligator populations within the Everglades landscape.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Persistence of a declining anuran species across its distribution

Information on a species’ population dynamics, such as changes in abundance and distribution, can be used to identify declining populations and initiate conservation efforts and protections. For the Ornate Chorus Frog ( Pseudacris ornata ), anecdotal observations of local extirpation and population declines have been noted, but trends in its range-wide population status are generally unknown. We used 2227 verified records of Ornate Chorus Frog presence from across the species’ distribution, grouped into 407 populations, and a modified Cormack-Jolly-Seber survival analysis to estimate the probability that historical Ornate Chorus Frog populations persist in the year 2024. Our results suggested that > 36% of historical Ornate Chorus Frog populations are possibly extirpated (probability of persistence < 0.5) and that 33% of populations had a probability of persistence > 0.9. Many of these extant populations occurred in northwestern Florida, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia, USA. The probability of persistence was positively influenced by habitat suitability and mean winter precipitation and negatively influenced by urban imperviousness. Ornate Chorus Frogs in protected areas had a higher average probability of persistence compared to populations that were not in protected areas. Our study fills a knowledge gap by identifying regions where Ornate Chorus Frog populations are likely thriving and regions where they may be extinct.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2025

Season, wind speed, and seasonal rain are major drivers of a regional aeolian sediment transport model

Wind erosion and sediment transport continue to increase in many parts of the world, leading to decreased soil quality, accelerated snow-melt, respiratory diseases, and traffic accidents. The processes that control sediment transport are well understood at small scales of mm to m but are less well understood at larger scales of km to hundreds of km. Here we test four approaches aimed at improving the variance explained in sediment transport measured in a network of 52 horizontal sediment flux collecting devices located on the Colorado Plateau, USA. First, switching from a regression tree to random forest statistical analysis increased the variance in sediment transport explained from 58% to 91%. Soil moisture as a single variable explained 52% of variation in sediment flux, but had a negligible effect on a random forest model with season (Winter, Spring, Summer), wind speed, and seasonal total precipitation. Similarly, adding four years of new data to an existing five-year dataset or adding measurements of soil roughness and grazing failed to improve variance explained. By explaining 91% of the variance in sediment transport, our model provides baseline model for understanding sediment transport on the landscape scale. Dust flux networks in new regions would likely need to collect at least 300-500 samples to describe variation in sediment transport values using random forest analyses of the effects of season, wind speed, seasonal rain and vegetation type.

Colorado, Utah↗
USGS2025

Landscape associations and population genetics of a generalist carnivore at a range limit

American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) sightings have increased in the Oklahoma Panhandle, an area outside of the species’ historical range, prompting an assessment of bears in the region. We used camera traps and an occupancy modeling framework to identify factors influencing bear detection and space-use patterns. We used noninvasive genetic sampling techniques to evaluate genetic diversity, population structure, and bear abundance in the region. During the summers of 2022–2023, we deployed cameras at 160 sites across western Oklahoma (USA) and detected ≥1 bear at 20 sites. The most-supported model from our single-season single-species analysis indicated that bear detection was positively associated with temperature and precipitation, negatively associated with day of year, and differed between years. The most-supported model indicated that bear space use was negatively associated with elevation (β = −0.013, 85% CI = −0.025, 0.000), and positively associated with slope (β = 0.645, 85% CI = 0.305, 0.984) and coarse woody debris counts (β = 1.539, 85% CI = 0.314, 2.765). We deployed 41 hair snares in Oklahoma resulting in the collection of 153 hair samples and received 69 tissue samples from black bears harvested in northeastern New Mexico. Using 11 microsatellite markers, we identified 21 (12M:9F) bears in western Oklahoma, and 69 (40M:29F) in New Mexico. We found evidence that bears occurring in Oklahoma were an extension of a previously documented population that occurred in northcentral New Mexico. We detected significant population-level heterozygote deficiency ( P = 0.013) compared to expectations under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Using capture with replacement models, we estimated 26 (95% CI = 19–43) bears in western Oklahoma during 2022–2023. Our results provide baseline data on population distribution, abundance, and genetic health of bears in the region and identify factors that may drive human-bear conflicts as the bear population increases in western Oklahoma.

New Mexico, Oklahoma↗
USGS2025

Spatial distribution and relative biomass of bigheaded carps in Lake Balaton, Hungary estimated from an environmental DNA survey

Silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ), bighead carp ( H. molitrix ) and their hybrids, collectively known as bigheaded carps, have been introduced to Lake Balaton, Hungary. The current stock sizes are difficult to assess. We investigated environmental DNA (eDNA) techniques targeted for bigheaded carps, assessed the spatial distribution of eDNA in Lake Balaton, compared eDNA concentrations to environmental variables to assess potential habitat selection based on those variables, and provided an estimate of biomass of bigheaded carps relative to eDNA shedding rates per unit biomass observed in controlled experiments. Water samples were collected from 70 sites in an array across the lake. Biomass estimation was calculated using mean eDNA concentration obtained by quantitative PCR of the samples and previously determined eDNA shedding rates of bigheaded carps under controlled conditions in a laboratory. Concentration of eDNA was highly variable between sites, resulting in wide confidence intervals. Basins did not significantly differ in eDNA concentration, and there were no strong relationships between environmental variables and eDNA concentration, indications that bigheaded carps use the entire lake. The model provided an estimate of 4,830 metric tonnes (2,750–8,030 tonnes) of bigheaded carps in Lake Balaton, or 81.0 kg/ha. The eDNA method produced a value close to previous estimates by traditional means of total biomass of bigheaded carps in the lake, and like traditional methods, there was a broad confidence interval on the estimate of the mean. The results of the present study support the utility of aquatic eDNA analysis, and the need for further comparisons with fisheries methods and supporting data from laboratory studies.

Lake Balaton↗
USGS2025

Development of genomic markers for monitoring and research on plethodontid salamanders

Despite the importance of plethodontid salamanders and their vulnerability to ongoing environmental change, they are inherently difficult to monitor due to their cryptic nature. Recent advances in genomics have created new opportunities for monitoring of populations and their responses to environmental perturbations. In this study, we developed a new target capture-based genomic panel for the purposes of genetic monitoring in plethodontid salamanders. We demonstrate its utility in several distantly related species and present an example application in two representative species with co-occurring distributions but different ecological attributes and expected patterns of population structure: Plethodon jordani and Desmognathus wrighti . Although the number of successfully assembled loci declined with phylogenetic distance from the original reference species ( Desmognathus spp), we obtained high-quality data from thousands of loci from species in all four genera tested ( Desmognathus , Plethodon , Eurycea , and Gyrinophilus ), which span the deepest split in Plethodontidae. Landscape genetic analyses detected weak but statistically significant geographic structure in P. jordani , and much stronger geographic structure in D. wrighti , as expected based on the lower population density and likely lower dispersal ability of D. wrighti . Our target capture panel is broadly applicable across salamanders in Plethodontidae and has the potential to provide data for a wide range of phylogenetic, biogeographic, and population genetics research questions.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗
USGS2026

Estimating GPS-based social aggregation metrics using collar data

Understanding social aggregation patterns in ungulate herds is essential for gaining behavioral insights, optimizing resource use, reducing human-wildlife conflict, and managing disease risk. As chronic wasting disease is the preeminent disease-related threat to cervid populations in North America, knowledge of contact between individuals and spatiotemporal patterns of aggregation provides opportunity to understand and potentially reduce disease risk while supporting sustainable population sizes. Herd density metrics, derived from global positioning system (GPS) data, can be used to inform management decisions. To effectively compare aggregation behavior within and between herds, aggregation metrics must be accurate. However, the consistency of metrics across different GPS collar sample sizes remains unclear and robust studies of big game require understanding how these factors may vary in different contexts. We examined the minimum sample size necessary for reliable calculations of three aggregation metrics: pairwise inter-animal distances, daily proximity rates, and kernel density estimate (KDE) areas. We used GPS collar data from the Jackson and West Green River elk herds ( Cervus canadensis ) in western Wyoming, USA, that differ in herd size and group structure (single versus multiple sub-groups), representing common practical contexts. Elk locations were acquired for the Jackson herd between 2016 and 2019 and from 2005 to 2010 for the West Green River herd. Herd-specific characteristics substantially influence the sample size necessary for accurate density measurements. As predicted, larger herds with many groups require more GPS collars than small herds with fewer groups. The sample size needed to accurately estimate aggregation varies by metric, with KDE areas, useful for indexing environmentally transmitted disease risk, generally requiring fewer samples, especially in high-density contexts. The required sample size also varies with seasonal changes in density. During periods of highest density, similar sample sizes are required to estimate inter-animal distances and proximity rates regardless of herd characteristics. Our results have implications for costs associated with studying big game herds, indicating fewer collars may be sufficient in some cases. These insights can aid researchers and managers in determining the appropriate number of GPS collars required for effective herd monitoring and informing relevant aggregation metrics for their management goals.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Modeling chronic wasting disease transmission risk in mule deer related to habitat characteristics

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of cervids that spreads to uninfected individuals through direct transmission (contact with infected individuals), vertical transmission (from mother to offspring), or indirect transmission (exposure to contaminated environments). The risk of indirect transmission is unevenly distributed on the landscape, and risk levels are expected to be controlled by patterns of habitat use by infected and uninfected individuals as well as environmental properties that alter the length of time prions remain infectious and available for uptake. Despite evidence from controlled or laboratory studies identifying environmental properties likely to affect patterns of CWD prion locations on the landscape, it remains difficult to connect mechanisms to realized increased or decreased risk of disease transmission, and few studies have attempted to detect patterns of different CWD risk in different environments. Using data from GPS-collared mule deer in Wyoming that were CWD-tested annually, we constructed models predicting annual probability of disease transmission contingent on environmental properties extracted from GPS use points. We compared models that emphasized different pathways of disease transmission by including or excluding sets of covariates that described deer density, habitat selection, and covariates expected to affect prion persistence in the environment. Results indicated that key habitat characteristics often selected by mule deer, such as proximity to secondary roads, were also associated with higher risk of testing positive for CWD, which supports the hypothesis that disease risk was correlated to patterns of habitat use by deer. We also found increased risk associated with spatial properties that were not selected-for by deer, such as areas where topography collects moisture, suggesting that prion retention mechanisms also play a role in risk. Incorporating these spatially-varying risk factors into our understanding of CWD transmission and outbreak progression can support managers in designing data collection and disease management strategies.

Wyoming↗
USGS2026

Analyses of eye lens stable isotopes across ontogeny of trophically diverse freshwater salmonids

Ontogenetic niche shifts in fishes are nearly universal but remain poorly understood in many species despite being fundamentally important for the persistence, management, and conservation of fish populations, including those of vulnerable salmonids. Eye lens stable isotope analysis has proven useful in studying ontogeny in some marine species but has rarely been applied in freshwater fishes. We conducted among the first applications of eye lens stable isotope analysis in two salmonids, Arctic Charr ( Salvelinus alpinus ) and Brook Trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), in four North American lakes at the southern extent of the range of Arctic Charr (Maine, USA). Our goal was to determine if ontogenetic patterns varied between individuals and populations in ways that relate to differential vulnerability. Like studies in marine systems, we found patterns in lens isotopic values that agree with expected ontogenetic patterns to reach known adult trophic niches. Within lakes and individuals examined in this study, Arctic Charr appeared more dependent on pelagic resources than co-occurring Brook Trout through life. Using Bayesian hierarchical linear regressions, we found evidence that ontogenetic shifts in trophic position (measured by δ 15 N) of Arctic Charr may vary among lakes. Arctic Charr in some populations increased in trophic position through life (population lifetime δ 15 N posterior mean slope estimate = 1.01) while others showed no substantial changes (population lifetime δ 15 N posterior mean slope = 0.05), which may relate to differences in habitat and fish assemblage among our study lakes. Our study suggests that individual life stages and populations of salmonids are likely to respond to climate variability (e.g., basal resource shifts) differentially, which could warrant population and life-stage-specific management.

Maine↗
USGS2010

Model-based evaluation of highly and low pathogenic avian influenza dynamics in wild birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2024

Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.

PLOS Computational Biology↗
USGS2025

Virulence evolution of a salmonid virus following a host jump

Emergent viral diseases remain a critical obstacle to welfare across landscapes and species, encompassing humans, wildlife, and agriculture. Following a jump to a novel host, the severity of disease resulting from infection is a critical determinant of the overall emergent pathogen threat. Conventional wisdom posits that virulence, defined here as host mortality, attenuates to intermediate levels as a pathogen adapts to a novel host, but this is largely based on data from just one system, myxoma virus, which was intentionally introduced as a biocontrol agent in rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) in mid-1900s Australia. In this study, we demonstrate that infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV), which made a host jump from sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka , ancestral host) to rainbow trout ( O. mykiss , novel host), has not conformed to classical theory. We quantified virulence in the ancestral and novel hosts using common garden in vivo experiments with 16 archival IHNV isolates collected from 1972-2017, which span the period from shortly after the host jump and the subsequent 45 years of host adaptation. These virus isolates also represent two distinct phylogenetic genogroups, each associated with either the ancestral or novel host. The experiments were replicated across two research facilities, two challenges dosages, and two temperatures. While isolates from the ancestral genogroup showed no temporal change in virulence in either host, isolates from the novel viral genogroup displayed a significant increase in virulence over time in the novel host. Some possible indication of a virus temperature adaption after the host jump was also present. Potential drivers of virulence evolution are discussed. This represents one of only a handful of systems in which the evolution of increased virulence has been empirically characterized after a host jump and subsequent adaptation. It contributes to a growing body of evidence that contradicts the classical case study of myxoma virus attenuation after adaptation.

PLoS Pathogens↗