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USGS2011

Proceedings of the 2011 Elwha River Science Symposium

After years of anticipation, volumes of Environmental Impact Statements, multiple mitigation projects, and the multidisciplinary collection of predam removal data, the deconstruction phase of the Elwha River restoration officially began on September 17th, 2011. With their simultaneous decommissioning, the removal of the 64 m tall Glines Canyon Dam and the 33 m tall Elwha Dam represents one of the largest such projects of its kind in North America. It’s also an excellent opportunity to study large-scale ecosystem restoration, as the majority of the reconnected habitat that will become available to recolonizing salmon occurs in the protected wilderness areas of Olympic National Park. As part of a week-long series of ‘Celebrate Elwha’ events, which culminated with a moving ceremony commemorating the official launch of dam removal, I was proud to work with a number of dedicated people, listed below, to organize the two day 2011 Elwha River Science Symposium. Many of the scientists working on the Elwha project have regularly met, since around 2004, for annual meetings. Loosely organized under the auspices of the Elwha Research and Elwha Nearshore consortia, the annual meetings have been informative for many reasons, including the sharing of study plans, field schedules, and preliminary results. It has been a great way for groups of physical scientists and groups of biologists to learn about the questions of interest to each group and to explore areas of overlap. In some cases, these meetings have spawned new collaborations, synergies, and research directions. In planning for the 2011 Elwha River Science Symposium, we sought to retain this espirit de corps, but realized that the start of dam removal heralded an important new phase of the project and called for an event that celebrated this special occasion.

Washington↗

USGS1991

Aquatic fulvic acids in microbially based ecosystems: results from two desert lakes in Antarctica

These lakes receive very limited input of organic material from the surrounding barren desert, but they sustain algal and bacterial populations under permanent ice cover. One lake has an extensive anoxic zone and high salinities; the other is oxic and has low salinities. Despite these differences, fulvic acids from both lakes had similar elemental compositions, carbon distributions, and amino acid contents, indicating that the chemistry of microbially derived fulvic acvids is not strongly influenced by chemical conditions in the water column. Compared to fulvic acids from other natural waters, these fulvic acids have low C:N atomic ratios (19-25) and low contents of aromatic carbons (5-7% of total carbon atoms); they are most similar to marine fulvic acids. -from Authors

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2014

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats

Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have led to the exploration and exploitation of shale oil and gas both nationally and internationally. Extensive development of shale resources has occurred within the United States over the past decade, yet full build out is not expected to occur for years. Moreover, countries across the globe have large shale resources and are beginning to explore extraction of these resources. Extraction of shale resources is a multistep process that includes site identification, well pad and infrastructure development, well drilling, high-volume hydraulic fracturing and production; each with its own propensity to affect associated ecosystems. Some potential effects, for example from well pad, road and pipeline development, will likely be similar to other anthropogenic activities like conventional gas drilling, land clearing, exurban and agricultural development and surface mining (e.g., habitat fragmentation and sedimentation). Therefore, we can use the large body of literature available on the ecological effects of these activities to estimate potential effects from shale development on nearby ecosystems. However, other effects, such as accidental release of wastewaters, are novel to the shale gas extraction process making it harder to predict potential outcomes. Here, we review current knowledge of the effects of high-volume hydraulic fracturing coupled with horizontal drilling on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the contiguous United States, an area that includes 20 shale plays many of which have experienced extensive development over the past decade. We conclude that species and habitats most at risk are ones where there is an extensive overlap between a species range or habitat type and one of the shale plays (leading to high vulnerability) coupled with intrinsic characteristics such as limited range, small population size, specialized habitat requirements, and high sensitivity to disturbance. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2019

The importance of turtle populations to wetland restoration in the upper Mississippi embayment of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

The Upper Mississippi Embayment (UME) ecoregion covers approximately 141,895 km2 and historically supported 9,712,455 ha of bottomland deciduous forests, swamps, bayous, and rivers. Only about 500 ha (< 0.01%) of pre-settlement bottomland hardwood forest habitat in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV) in the UME remained by the 1940s because the timber was clearcut and the wetlands drained for agriculture. By 1983 only a few scattered cypress-tupelo swamps remained. We studied the freshwater turtle community in Allred Lake, Missouri, a rare remnant of this ecosystem and compared these results to those from two other study sites in the MAV, Big Oak Tree State Park (BOTSP), Missouri, and Coldwater River National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR), Mississippi. Species richness included six species commonly found throughout the MAV. One species (Red-eared Slider, Trachemys scripta elegans) dominated density and biomass in all three assemblages. The occurrence of the six species we studied in man-made restored wetlands such as those in BOTSP and CRNWR indicate these turtles would adapt to restored wetlands in the MAV in southeastern Missouri and elsewhere in the ecosystem. We provide information on habitat features that could be included in restoration design and construction that would benefit turtles. Given the ongoing worldwide decline of turtles, consideration of turtle ecology and behavior in wetland restoration projects in the MAV may be warranted.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗

USGS2017

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional conservation and climate change adaptation strategies may be warranted to maintain habitat adequate to support waterbirds in the Central Valley.

California↗

USGS2013

Assessing the risk of nitrogen deposition to natural resources in the Four Corners area

Nitrogen (N) deposition in the western U.S. is on the rise and is already dramatically affecting terrestrial ecosystems. For example, N deposition has repeatedly been shown to lower air and water quality, increase greenhouse gas emissions, alter plant community composition, and significantly modify fire regimes. Accordingly, the effects of N deposition represent one of our largest environmental challenges and make difficult the National Park Service’s (NPS) important mission to “preserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wildlife… unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations”. Due to increased population growth and energy development (e.g., natural gas wells), the Four Corners region has become a notable ‘hotspot’ for N deposition. However, our understanding of how increased N deposition will affect these unique ecosystems, as well as how much deposition is actually occurring, remains notably poor. Here we used a multi-disciplinary approach to gathering information in an effort to help NPS safeguard the Four Corners national parks, both now and into the future. We applied modeling, field, and laboratory techniques to clarify current N deposition gradients and to help elucidate the ecosystem consequences of N deposition to the national parks of the Four Corners area. Our results suggest that NOx deposition does indeed represent a significant source of N to Mesa Verde National Park and, as expected, N deposition significantly affects coupled biogeochemical cycling (N, carbon, and phosphorus) of these landscapes. We also found some surprising results. For example, perhaps due to the low nutrient availability in these (and other) dryland ecosystems, although most other research suggests that adding N reduces N fixation rates, N additions did not consistently reduce natural N inputs via biological N2 fixation at our dryland sites. While the timeline of this pilot project is too brief to elucidate all the potential insight from the approach utilized here (e.g., we have fertilization plots to explore how N deposition affects Bromus tectorum invasion that will surely yield provoking results), we plan to continue this exciting line of questioning and expect further insight to be forthcoming.

Arches National Park, Canyonland National Park, Me↗

USGS2013

Environmental impact of the landslides caused by the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan, China earthquake

The magnitude 7.9 (M w ) Wenchuan, China, earthquake of May 12, 2008 caused at least 88,000 deaths of which one third are estimated to be due to the more than 56,000 earthquake-induced landslides. The affected area is mountainous, featuring densely-vegetated, steep slopes through which narrowly confined rivers and streams flow. Numerous types of landslides occurred in the area, including rock avalanches, rock falls, translational and rotational slides, lateral spreads and debris flows. Some landslides mobilized hundreds of million cubic meters of material, often resulting in the damming of rivers and streams, impacting river ecosystems and morphology. Through an extensive search of both Chinese- and English-language publications we provide a summary of pertinent research on environmental effects, emphasizing key findings. Environmental effects caused by landslides include the alteration of agriculture, changes to natural ecosystems, changes in river morphology due to landslide dams and other effects such as sedimentation and flooding. Damage by landslides to the giant panda reserve infrastructure and habitat, was severe, threatening the survival of one of the world’s rarest species. The Panda reserves are of national significance to China, and to the vital tourism economy of the region. One of the major impacts to both the natural and built environment is the complete relocation of some human populations and infrastructure to new areas, resulting in the abandonment of towns and other areas that were damaged by the earthquake and landslides. The landslide effects have affected the biodiversity of the affected area, and it has been hypothesized that strict forest preservation measures taken in the years preceding the earthquake resulted in a reduction of the environmental damage to the area.

Wenchuan↗

USGS2023

Expanding our view of the cold-water coral niche and accounting of the ecosystem services of the reef habitat

Coral reefs are iconic ecosystems that support diverse, productive communities in both shallow and deep waters. However, our incomplete knowledge of cold-water coral (CWC) niche space limits our understanding of their distribution and precludes a complete accounting of the ecosystem services they provide. Here, we present the results of recent surveys of the CWC mound province on the Blake Plateau off the U.S. east coast, an area of intense human activity including fisheries and naval operations, and potentially energy and mineral extraction. At one site, CWC mounds are arranged in lines that total over 150 km in length, making this one of the largest reef complexes discovered in the deep ocean. This site experiences rapid and extreme shifts in temperature between 4.3 and 10.7 °C, and currents approaching 1 m s −1 . Carbon is transported to depth by mesopelagic micronekton and nutrient cycling on the reef results in some of the highest nitrate concentrations recorded in the region. Predictive models reveal expanded areas of highly suitable habitat that currently remain unexplored. Multidisciplinary exploration of this new site has expanded understanding of the cold-water coral niche, improved our accounting of the ecosystem services of the reef habitat, and emphasizes the importance of properly managing these systems.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2017

A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

Background Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting. Results We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus. Conclusions Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha −1 /year −1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2018

Natural resource condition assessment: Olympic National Park

The Natural Resource Assessment Program aims to document condition and trends of selected park resources while identifying emerging issues and information needs. This information is intended to serve as a platform for natural resource managers to use in developing future resource stewardship priorities and planning. Olympic National Park (OLYM) on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula protects remarkable examples of several Pacific Northwestern ecosystems, including the glacier-capped Olympic Mountains, oldgrowth temperate rainforests, pristine river systems, and wild Pacific coastline and islands. The park provides habitat for numerous plants and animals, including at least 16 animal and eight plant taxa endemic to the Olympic Peninsula. The park’s lakes and rivers support over 70 stocks of Pacific salmonids and 29 native freshwater fish species. The rocky intertidal community is one of the most complex and diverse shorelines in the United States. Although we conducted in-depth assessments on a limited number of resources, the general condition of several other physical and biological components of OLYM ecosystems is described in Chapter 2, along with an overview of park history and ecology. In Chapter 3, we describe how we chose our focal resources and measures, as well as our protocol for conducting the assessment. In Chapter 4, we provide a detailed assessment of each resource, with a summary of condition and trends. In Chapter 5, we further interpret and discuss the implications of each focal resource status, highlighting future areas for monitoring and research. We summarize the general findings from our assessments below.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Use of alligator hole abundance and occupancy rate as indicators for restoration of a human-altered wetland

Use of indicator species as a measure of ecosystem conditions is an established science application in environmental management. Because of its role in shaping wetland systems, the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) is one of the ecological indicators for wetland restoration in south Florida, USA. We conducted landscape-level aerial surveys of alligator holes in two different habitats in a wetland where anthropogenic modification of surface hydrology has altered the natural system. Alligator holes were scarcer in an area where modified hydrology caused draining and frequent dry-downs compared to another area that maintains a functional wetland system. Lower abundance of alligator holes indicates lack of alligator activities, lower overall species diversity, and lack of dry-season aquatic refugia for other organisms. The occupancy rate of alligator holes was lower than the current restoration target for the Everglades, and was variable by size class with large size-class alligators predominantly occupying alligator holes. This may indicate unequal size-class distribution, different habitat selection by size classes, or possibly a lack of recruitment. Our study provides pre-restoration baseline information about one indicator species for the Everglades. Success of the restoration can be assessed via effective synthesis of information derived by collective research efforts on the entire suite of selected ecological indicators.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Variable impacts of contemporary versus legacy agricultural phosphorus on US river water quality

Phosphorus (P) fertilizer has contributed to the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems. Watershed-based conservation programs aiming to reduce external P loading to surface waters have not resulted in significant water-quality improvements. One factor that can help explain the lack of water-quality response is remobilization of accumulated legacy (historical) P within the terrestrial-aquatic continuum, which can obscure the beneficial impacts of current conservation efforts. We examined how contemporary river P trends (between 1992 and 2012) responded to estimated changes in contemporary agricultural P balances [(fertilizer + manure inputs)—crop uptake and harvest removal] for 143 watersheds in the conterminous United States, while also developing a proxy estimate of legacy P contribution, which refers to anthropogenic P inputs before 1992. We concluded that legacy sources contributed to river export in 49 watersheds because mean contemporary river P export exceeded mean contemporary agricultural P balances. For the other 94 watersheds, agricultural P balances exceeded river P export, and our proxy estimate of legacy P was inconclusive. If legacy contributions occurred in these locations, they were likely small and dwarfed by contemporary P sources. Our continental-scale P mass balance results indicated that improved incentives and strategies are needed to promote the adoption of nutrient-conserving practices and reduce widespread contemporary P surpluses. However, a P surplus reduction is only 1 component of an effective nutrient plan as we found agricultural balances decreased in 91 watersheds with no consistent water-quality improvements, and balances increased in 52 watersheds with no consistent water-quality degradation.

PNAS↗

USGS2013

Water resources in the desert southwest

As the old saying goes, there is nothing more precious than water in the desert. The Ancestral Puebloans, Hohokam, and other pre-Columbian cultures knew this and built their civilizations near guaranteed water supplies. When the Spaniards arrived in present-day Arizona, they found that the Tohono O’odham and Piman cultures had settled in prime riverine sites, turning perennial flow through lush riparian ecosystems into irrigation water for productive agriculture. The Spaniards followed suit, building their missions along perennial reaches of the Santa Cruz River, including at one place aptly named “Punta de Agua” (Point of Water) south of Tucson. When the Mormons spread southward from Utah in the 1870s, their destinations were riverside settings on the Little Colorado, Salt, and San Pedro Rivers (Figure 4.1).

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗

USGS2013

Impacts of tree rows on grassland birds & potential nest predators: A removal experiment

Globally, grasslands and the wildlife that inhabit them are widely imperiled. Encroachment by shrubs and trees has widely impacted grasslands in the past 150 years. In North America, most grassland birds avoid nesting near woody vegetation. Because woody vegetation fragments grasslands and potential nest predator diversity and abundance is often greater along wooded edge and grassland transitions, we measured the impacts of removing rows of trees and shrubs that intersected grasslands on potential nest predators and the three most abundant grassland bird species (Henslow’s sparrow [ Ammodramus henslowii ], Eastern meadowlark [ Sturnella magna ], and bobolink [ Dolichonyx oryzivorus ]) at sites in Wisconsin, U.S.A. We monitored 3 control and 3 treatment sites, for 1 yr prior to and 3 yr after tree row removal at the treatment sites. Grassland bird densities increased (2–4 times for bobolink and Henslow’s sparrow) and nesting densities increased (all 3 species) in the removal areas compared to control areas. After removals, Henslow’s sparrows nested within ≤50 m of the treatment area, where they did not occur when tree rows were present. Most dramatically, activity by woodland-associated predators nearly ceased (nine-fold decrease for raccoon [ Procyon lotor ]) at the removals and grassland predators increased (up to 27 times activity for thirteen-lined ground squirrel [ Ictidomys tridecemlineatus ]). Nest success did not increase, likely reflecting the increase in grassland predators. However, more nests were attempted by all 3 species (175 versus 116) and the number of successful nests for bobolinks and Henslow’s sparrows increased. Because of gains in habitat, increased use by birds, greater production of young, and the effective removal of woodland-associated predators, tree row removal, where appropriate based on the predator community, can be a beneficial management action for conserving grassland birds and improving fragmented and degraded grassland ecosystems.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Similar resilience attributes in lakes with different management practices

Liming has been used extensively in Scandinavia and elsewhere since the 1970s to counteract the negative effects of acidification. Communities in limed lakes usually return to acidified conditions once liming is discontinued, suggesting that liming is unlikely to shift acidified lakes to a state equivalent to pre-acidification conditions that requires no further management intervention. While this suggests a low resilience of limed lakes, attributes that confer resilience have not been assessed, limiting our understanding of the efficiency of costly management programs. In this study, we assessed community metrics (diversity, richness, evenness, biovolume), multivariate community structure and the relative resilience of phytoplankton in limed, acidified and circum-neutral lakes from 1997 to 2009, using multivariate time series modeling. We identified dominant temporal frequencies in the data, allowing us to track community change at distinct temporal scales. We assessed two attributes of relative resilience (cross-scale and within-scale structure) of the phytoplankton communities, based on the fluctuation frequency patterns identified. We also assessed species with stochastic temporal dynamics. Liming increased phytoplankton diversity and richness; however, multivariate community structure differed in limed relative to acidified and circum-neutral lakes. Cross-scale and within-scale attributes of resilience were similar across all lakes studied but the contribution of those species exhibiting stochastic dynamics was higher in the acidified and limed compared to circum-neutral lakes. From a resilience perspective, our results suggest that limed lakes comprise a particular condition of an acidified lake state. This explains why liming does not move acidified lakes out of a “degraded” basin of attraction. In addition, our study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess the efficiency of restoration and management outcomes through quantification of the attributes contributing to resilience in ecosystems.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2007

Rarity and diversity in forest ant assemblages of Great Smoky Mountains National Park

We report on a systematic survey of the ant fauna occurring in hardwood forests in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. At 22-mixed hardwood sites, we collected leaf-litter ant species using Winkler samplers. At eight of those sites, we also collected ants using pitfall and Malaise traps. In total, we collected 53 ant species. As shown in other studies, ant species richness tended to decline with increasing elevation. Leaf-litter ant assemblages were also highly nested. Several common species were both locally abundant and had broad distributions, while many other species were rarely detected. Winkler samplers, pitfall traps, and Malaise traps yielded samples that differed in composition, but not richness, from one another. Taken together, our work begins to illuminate the factors that govern the diversity, distribution, abundance, and perhaps rarity of ants of forested ecosystems in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels may inundate low-lying islands across the globe, placing island biodiversity at risk. Recent models predict a rise of approximately one meter (1 m) in global sea level by 2100, with larger increases possible in areas of the Pacific Ocean. Pacific Islands are unique ecosystems home to many endangered endemic plant and animal species. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), which extend 1,930 kilometers (km) beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 endemic land bird species and essential foraging, breeding, or haul-out habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. In recent years, concern has grown about the increasing vulnerability of the NWHI and their wildlife populations to changing climatic patterns, particularly the uncertainty associated with potential impacts from global sea-level rise (SLR) and storms. In response to the need by managers to adapt future resource protection strategies to climate change variability and dynamic island ecosystems, we have synthesized and down scaled analyses for this important region. This report describes a 2-year study of a remote northwestern Pacific atoll ecosystem and identifies wildlife and habitat vulnerable to rising sea levels and changing climate conditions. A lack of high-resolution topographic data for low-lying islands of the NWHI had previously precluded an extensive quantitative model of the potential impacts of SLR on wildlife habitat. The first chapter (chapter 1) describes the vegetation and topography of 20 islands of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the distribution and status of wildlife populations, and the predicted impacts for a range of SLR scenarios. Furthermore, this chapter explores the potential effects of SLR on wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here emphasize the need for early climate change adaptation and mitigation planning, especially for species with limited breeding distributions and/or ranges restricted primarily to the low-lying NWHI: Cyperus pennatiformis var. bryanii , Black-footed Albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes ), Laysan Albatross ( P. immutabilis ), Bonin Petrel ( Pterodroma hypoleuca ), Gray-backed Tern ( Onychoprion lunatus ), Laysan Teal ( Anas laysanensis ), Laysan Finch ( Telespiza cantans ), and Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ). Furthermore, SLR scenarios that include the effects of wave dynamics and groundwater rise may indicate amplified vulnerability to climate change driven habitat loss on low-lying islands. In chapter 2, we incorporated the combined effects of SLR, dynamic wave-driven inundation, and rising groundwater in a quantitative study specifically for the Laysan Island ecosystem. This is the first hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined impacts of SLR and wave-driven inundation in the NWHI. We developed a high-resolution digital elevation model (mean vertical accuracy of 0.32 m) for the island. Then using recent satellite imagery, geospatial models, and historical oceanographic, storm, and biological data we estimated potential inundation extent, habitat loss, and wildlife population impacts for a range of potential SLR scenarios (0.00, +0.50, +1.00, +1.50, and +2.00 m) that may occur over the next century. Additionally, we estimated the carrying capacity of Laysan Island for five species based on the available population monitoring data and described how potential losses in nesting habitat could influence population dynamics for Black-footed Albatross, Laysan Albatross, Red-footed Booby (Sula sula), Laysan Teal, and Laysan Finch. For some other seabird populations (Masked Booby, S. dactylatra ; Brown Booby, S. leucogaster ; Great Frigatebird, Fregata minor ; and Sooty Tern, Onychoprion fuscata ), we used recent colony distribution data, land cover maps, and nesting behavior to estimate potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands and contribute to a broader understanding of the impacts of inundation from SLR and storm-induced waves. Yet, most NWHI and their bird populations lack monitoring data to evaluate adaptations to and impacts of climate change. Exceptions include some data sets from long-term monitoring of wildlife populations, tides, or weather at French Frigate Shoals, Laysan Island, and Midway Atoll. These data sets are potentially valuable baselines, which could be informative for adaptive learning (integrating management and science) to predict, adapt, and mitigate the effects of climate change on NWHI wildlife in the future. This study provides the first quantitative vulnerability assessment for all of the low-lying NWHI, and results identify biological communities, locales, and resident endangered species of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument expected to be at risk from SLR. This report is also intended as a reference for managers and conservation planners, a tool to identify and potentially reduce uncertainty, and a starting place for developing climate change monitoring priorities and future scientific studies.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

Climate is a master controller of the structure, composition, and function of biotic communities, affecting them both directly, through physiological effects, and indirectly, by mediating biotic interactions and by influencing disturbance regimes. Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s (SEKI’s) dramatic elevational changes in biotic communities -- from warm mediterranean to cold alpine -- are but one manifestation of climate’s overarching importance in shaping SEKI’s landscape. Yet humans are now altering the global climate, with measurable effects on ecosystems (IPCC 2007). Over the last few decades across the western United States, human-induced climatic changes have likely contributed to observed declines in fraction of precipitation falling as snow and snowpack water content (Mote et al. 2005, Knowles et al. 2006), advance in spring snowmelt (Stewart et al. 2005, Barnett et al. 2008), and consequent increase in area burned in wildfires (Westerling et al. 2006). In the Sierra Nevada, warming temperatures have likely contributed to observed glacial recession (Basagic 2008), uphill migration of small mammals (Moritz et al. 2008), and increasing tree mortality rates (van Mantgem and Stephenson 2007, van Mantgem et al. 2009). More substantial changes can be expected for the future (e.g., IPCC 2007). Given the central importance of climate and climatic changes, we sought to describe long-term trends in temperature and precipitation at SEKI. Time and budget constraints limited us to analyses of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, using readily-available data. If funds become available in the future, further analyses will be needed to analyze trends by season, trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and so on. We chose to analyze data from individual weather stations rather than use interpolated climatic data from sources such as PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). In topographically complex mountainous regions with few weather stations, like SEKI, the addition or subtraction of even a single weather station through time has the potential to significantly bias trends in interpolated data. In particular, this analysis was motivated by our questioning of some PRISM results presented in Appendix 1 (Landscape Context) that compared temperature averages between two 30-year periods of the 20th Century. Figures 6 and 11 of Appendix 1 indicate that recent (1971-2000) temperatures in northern Kings Canyon National Park averaged some 2° C cooler than those of 1911-1940. This would represent a truly profound and persistent cooling, and seems to be at odds both with the glacial retreats observed in the area over the century (Basagic 2008), and with the reported PRISM warming of nearly 2° C just to the west of the cooling (see Figs. 6 and 11 in Appendix 1). We suspect that the extreme localized Kings Canyon cooling reported by PRISM is an artifact of sparsely-distributed weather stations in the region being added and discontinued over the span of the 20th Century. For example, data from the Western Regional Climate Center (http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/coopmap/) suggest that for the period 1911 through 1924 PRISM must interpolate northern Kings Canyon temperatures based on a few low-elevation stations -- separated by hundreds of kilometers -- in Nevada and California’s San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, by 1970 PRISM interpolations will be dominated by closer, higher-elevation stations (see this report). The single weather station closest to northern Kings Canyon that has a temperature record at least partly spanning Appendix 1’s two 30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

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