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USGS2022

By land, air, and water — U.S. Geological Survey science supporting fish and wildlife migrations throughout North America

Countless species of animals—big game, birds, bats, insects, amphibians, reptiles, and fish—migrate to reach suitable habitats to feed, reproduce, and raise their young. Animal migrations developed over millennia commonly follow migration corridors—unique routes for each species—to move among seasonal habitats. Changes along those corridors, whether from human development (buildings, roads, dams) or from natural disturbances (for example, climate change, drought, fire, flooding, or invasive species), can make them harder to navigate. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Ecosystems Mission Area provides science that assists land managers in mapping, enhancing, protecting, and reconnecting migration corridors critical for diverse fish and wildlife populations that migrate, such as Odocoileus hemionus (mule deer) and Antilocapra americana (pronghorn), trout and salmon, salamanders, tortoises, bats, and Danaus plexippus (monarch butterflies).

North America↗

USGS2021

Bridging the research-implementation gap in avian conservation with translational ecology

The recognized gap between research and implementation in avian conservation can be overcome with translational ecology, an intentional approach in which science producers and users from multiple disciplines work collaboratively to co-develop and deliver ecological research that addresses management and conservation issues. Avian conservation naturally lends itself to translational ecology because birds are well studied, typically widespread, often exhibit migratory behaviors transcending geopolitical boundaries, and necessitate coordinated conservation efforts to accommodate resource and habitat needs across the full annual cycle. In this perspective, we highlight several case studies from bird conservation practitioners and the ornithological and conservation social sciences exemplifying the 6 core translational ecology principles introduced in previous studies: collaboration, engagement, commitment, communication, process, and decision-framing. We demonstrate that following translational approaches can lead to improved conservation decision-making and delivery of outcomes via co-development of research and products that are accessible to broader audiences and applicable to specific management decisions (e.g., policy briefs and decision-support tools). We also identify key challenges faced during scientific producer–user engagement, potential tactics for overcoming these challenges, and lessons learned for overcoming the research-implementation gap. Finally, we recommend strategies for building a stronger translational ecology culture to further improve the integration of these principles into avian conservation decisions. By embracing translational ecology, avian conservationists and ornithologists can be well positioned to ensure that future management decisions are scientifically informed and that scientific research is sufficiently relevant to managers. Ultimately, such teamwork can help close the research-implementation gap in the conservation sciences during a time when environmental issues are threatening avian communities and their habitats at exceptional rates and at broadening spatial scales worldwide.

Ornithological Applications↗

USGS2008

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region. How severe the changes will be depends on the actions that individuals, schools, businesses, organizations, communities, and governments take to get ready. To help prepare for this event, scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have changed the way that earthquake scenarios are done, uniting a multidisciplinary team that spans an unprecedented number of specialties. The team includes the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and nearly 200 other partners in government, academia, emergency response, and industry, working to understand the long-term impacts of an enormous earthquake on the complicated social and economic interactions that sustain southern California society. This project, the ShakeOut Scenario, has applied the best current scientific understanding to identify what can be done now to avoid an earthquake catastrophe. More information on the science behind this project will be available in The ShakeOut Scenario (USGS Open-File Report 2008-1150; http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/). The 'what if?' earthquake modeled in the ShakeOut Scenario is a magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault. Geologists selected the details of this hypothetical earthquake by considering the amount of stored strain on that part of the fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking that would occur in this earthquake. Engineers and other professionals used the shaking to produce a realistic picture of this earthquake's damage to buildings, roads, pipelines, and other infrastructure. From these damages, social scientists projected casualties, emergency response, and the impact of the scenario earthquake on southern California's economy and society. The earthquake, its damages, and resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

California↗

USGS2013

United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Along the nearly 3,200 kilometers (almost 2,000 miles) of the United States–Mexican border, in an area known as the Borderlands, we are witnessing the expression of the challenges of the 21st century. This circular identifies several challenge themes and issues associated with life and the environment in the Borderlands, listed below. The challenges are not one-sided; they do not originate in one country only to become problems for the other. The issues and concerns of each challenge theme flow in both directions across the border, and both nations feel their effects throughout the Borderlands and beyond. The clear message is that our two nations, the United States and Mexico, face the issues in these challenge themes together, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) understands it must work with its counterparts, partners, and customers in both countries. Though the mission of the USGS is not to serve as land manager, law enforcer, or code regulator, its innovation and creativity and the scientific and technical depth of its capabilities can be directly applied to monitoring the conditions of the landscape. The ability of USGS scientists to critically analyze the monitored data in search of signals and trends, whether they lead to negative or positive results, allows us to reach significant conclusions—from providing factual conclusions to decisionmakers, to estimating how much of a natural resource exists in a particular locale, to predicting how a natural hazard phenomenon will unfold, to forecasting on a scale from hours to millennia how ecosystems will behave. None of these challenge themes can be addressed strictly by one or two science disciplines; all require well-integrated, cross-discipline thinking, data collection, and analyses. The multidisciplinary science themes that have become the focus of the USGS mission parallel the major challenges in the border region between Mexico and the United States. Because of this multidisciplinary approach, the USGS possesses a unique set of capabilities that can address these challenges. The USGS can apply geographical, geospatial, biological, hydrological, and geological sciences to these complex issues and thereby provide insight into the area’s natural systems and their relation to human activity. As we come to better understand the complexities of the components of these challenge themes, we discover that each part is inextricably intertwined with other overarching issues. Because of the complex interactions of the human, ecological, political, and economic exigencies associated with this area, the status of the Borderlands has become an ever-present concern for most American citizens and for Mexican and United States Federal, State, and local governments. This circular is intended to provide you - citizen, local decisionmaker, government leader, or private entrepreneur—an overview of what the USGS considers the current and future challenges in the United States–Mexican border region and examples of how the USGS can make a difference in understanding and addressing these issues.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2019

Status of three-dimensional geological mapping and modeling activities in the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), created in 1879, is the national geological survey for the United States and the sole science agency within its cabinet-level bureau, the Department of the Interior. The USGS has a broad mission, including: serving the Nation by providing reliable scientific information to describe and understand the Earth; minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters; manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources; and enhance and protect quality of life. USGS scientific activities are organized around major topics, or Mission Areas, aligned with distinct science themes; three-dimensional (3-D) modelling typically supports research and project work within a specific Mission Area. The vastness, diversity, and complexity of the geological landscape of the United States has resulted in the creation of 3-D geological framework models that are local or regional in scale; a National-scale 3-D model is only beginning to evolve. This paper summarizes 3-D geological modeling at the USGS and does not discuss 3-D modeling that is conducted by other Federal agencies, state geological surveys, academia, or industry within the U.S. This paper updates and expands upon a similar status report of USGS 3-D modeling activities of Jacobsen et al. (2011).

Report↗

USGS2011

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Washington↗

USGS2005

Gulf of Mexico Integrated Science - Tampa Bay Study: Examining the Impact of Urbanization on Seafloor Habitats

Seafloor habitats, such as seagrass beds, provide essential habitat for fish and marine mammals. For many years, the study of seagrass vitality has been a priority for scientists and resource managers working in Tampa Bay. Seafloor habitats are extremely sensitive to changes in water quality. Like a canary in a coal mine, seagrass can serve as an ecological indicator of estuary health. Between the 1940s and the 1970s, seagrass gradually died in Tampa Bay. This loss has been attributed to a rise in urbanization and an increase in nutrient loading into the bay. Better treatment of industrial wastewater and runoff beginning in the 1980s resulted in the continuous recovery of seagrass beds. However, in the mid-1990s, the recovery began to level off in areas where good water quality was expected to support continued seagrass recovery, demonstrating that nutrient loading may be only one factor impacting seagrass health. Researchers now are trying to determine what might be affecting the recovery of seagrass in these areas. Currently, little is understood about the effects that other aspects of urbanization and natural change, such as groundwater and sediment quality, might have on seagrass vitality. This segment of the Tampa Bay integrated science study is intended to identify, quantify, and develop models that illustrate the impact that urbanization may have on seafloor habitat distribution, health, and restoration.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

USGS1955

Ground-water hydraulics - A summary of lectures presented by John G. Ferris at short courses conducted by the Ground Water Branch, part 1, Theory

The objective of the Ground Water Branch is to evaluate the occurrence, availability, and quality of ground water. The science of ground-water hydrology is applied toward attaining that goal. Although many ground-water investigations are of a qualitative nature, quantitative studies are necessarily an integral component of the complete evaluation of occurrence and availability. The worth of an aquifer as a fully developed source of water depends largely on two inherent characteristics: its ability to store, and its ability to transmit water. Furthermore, quantitative knowledge of these characteristics facilitates measurement of hydrologic entities such as recharge, leakage, evapotranspiration, etc. It is recognized that these two characteristics, referred to as the coefficients of storage and transmissibility, generally provide the very foundation on which quantitative studies are constructed. Within the science of ground-water hydrology, ground-water hydraulics methods are applied to determine these constats from field data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Summary Report

The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot project (GBILM) was one of four regional pilots to implement the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Thrust on Integrated Landscape Monitoring (ILM) whose goal was to observe, understand, and predict landscape change and its implications on natural resources at multiple spatial and temporal scales and address priority natural resource management and policy issues. The Great Basin is undergoing rapid environmental change stemming from interactions among global climate trends, increasing human populations, expanding and accelerating land and water uses, invasive species, and altered fire regimes. GBLIM tested concepts and developed tools to store and analyze monitoring data, understand change at multiple scales, and forecast landscape change. The GBILM endeavored to develop and test a landscape-level monitoring approach in the Great Basin that integrates USGS disciplines, addresses priority management questions, catalogs and uses existing monitoring data, evaluates change at multiple scales, and contributes to development of regional monitoring strategies. GBILM functioned as an integrative team from 2005 to 2010, producing more than 35 science and data management products that addressed pressing ecosystem drivers and resource management agency needs in the region. This report summarizes the approaches and methods of this interdisciplinary effort, identifies and describes the products generated, and provides lessons learned during the project.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2007

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2023

Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change

Resource managers have rarely accounted for evolutionary dynamics in the design or implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. We brought the research and management communities together to identify challenges and opportunities for applying evidence from evolutionary science to support on-the-ground actions intended to enhance species' evolutionary potential. We amalgamated input from natural-resource practitioners and interdisciplinary scientists to identify information needs, current knowledge that can fill those needs, and future avenues for research. Three focal areas that can guide engagement include: (1) recognizing when to act, (2) understanding the feasibility of assessing evolutionary potential, and (3) identifying best management practices. Although researchers commonly propose using molecular methods to estimate genetic diversity and gene flow as key indicators of evolutionary potential, we offer guidance on several additional attributes (and their proxies) that may also guide decision-making, particularly in the absence of genetic data. Finally, we outline existing decision-making frameworks that can help managers compare alternative strategies for supporting evolutionary potential, with the goal of increasing the effective use of evolutionary information, particularly for species of conservation concern. We caution, however, that arguing over nuance can generate confusion; instead, dedicating increased focus on a decision-relevant evidence base may better lend itself to climate adaptation actions.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2022

Evapotranspiration covers at uranium mill tailings sites

Waste isolation is a key strategy for mitigating risk from municipal solid waste (MSW) and hazardous waste streams. Conventional covers at MSW facilities are designed for a 30-yr post-closure period where compacted soils and geosynthetics are used to minimize percolation into buried waste. Recently, evapotranspiration (ET) covers have shown beneficial use for MSW management. Evapotranspiration covers encourage infiltration, storage, and transpiration of precipitation to minimize percolation. Such covers may also have beneficial use for long-term waste issues, such as at Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) sites. These sites were covered by a clay radon barrier to create tortuous flow paths that allow radioactive decay and attenuation of short-lived, radon-222 gas. For long-term waste isolation, an ET-radon cover may provide greater resilience by exploiting natural processes instead of resisting them. This update presents a review of the current state-of-the-science regarding ET covers and considerations for long-term applications.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2012

Seasonal activity and morphological changes in martian gullies

Recent studies of martian dune and non-dune gullies have suggested a seasonal control on present-day gully activity. The timing of current gully activity, especially activity involving the formation or modification of channels (which commonly have been taken as evidence of fluvial processes), has important implications regarding likely gully formation processes and necessary environmental conditions. In this study, we describe the results of frequent meter-scale monitoring of several active gully sites by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). The aim is to better assess the scope and nature of current morphological changes and to provide improved constraints on timing of gully activity on both dune and non-dune slopes. Our observations indicate that (1) gully formation on Mars is ongoing today and (2) the most significant morphological changes are strongly associated with seasonal frost and defrosting activity. Observed changes include formation of all major components of typical gully landforms, although we have not observed alcove formation in coherent bedrock. These results reduce the need to invoke recent climate change or present-day groundwater seepage to explain the many martian gullies with pristine appearance.

Icarus↗

USGS2021

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Nevada↗

USGS2007

Using biodynamic models to reconcile differences between laboratory toxicity tests and field biomonitoring with aquatic insects

Aquatic insects often dominate lotic ecosystems, yet these organisms are under-represented in trace metal toxicity databases. Furthermore, toxicity data for aquatic insects do not appear to reflect their actual sensitivities to metals in nature, because the concentrations required to elicit toxicity in the laboratory are considerably higher than those found to impact insect communities in the field. New approaches are therefore needed to better understand how and why insects are differentially susceptible to metal exposures. Biodynamic modeling is a powerful tool for understanding interspecific differences in trace metal bioaccumulation. Because bioaccumulation alone does not necessarily correlate with toxicity, we combined biokinetic parameters associated with dissolved cadmium exposures with studies of the subcellular compartmentalization of accumulated Cd. This combination of physiological traits allowed us to make predictions of susceptibility differences to dissolved Cd in three aquatic insect taxa: Ephemerella excrucians , Rhithrogena morrisoni , and Rhyacophila sp. We compared these predictions with long-term field monitoring data and toxicity tests with closely related taxa: Ephemerella infrequens , Rhithrogena hageni , and Rhyacophila brunea. Kinetic parameters allowed us to estimate steady-state concentrations, the time required to reach steady state, and the concentrations of Cd projected to be in potentially toxic compartments for different species. Species-specific physiological traits identified using biodynamic models provided a means for better understanding why toxicity assays with insects have failed to provide meaningful estimates for metal concentrations that would be expected to be protective in nature.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 μg/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 μg/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 μg/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

California↗

USGS2021

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance d c "> d c dc strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by M W "> M W MW 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains d c "> d c dc to be ≤ 10 "> ≤ 10 ≤10 mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick–slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Hawaii↗