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Water-quality trends of urban streams in Independence, Missouri, 2005–18

The U.S. Geological Survey and the city of Independence, Missouri, Water Pollution Control Department has studied the water quality and ecological condition of urban streams within Independence since 2005. Selected physical properties, nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli and total coliform), total dissolved solids, and suspended-sediment concentration data for base-flow and stormflow samples were used to document temporal trends in concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations; and annual loads were computed and investigated for selected nutrients, chloride, and suspended sediment. The six study sites included in this report are located on five urban streams: Rock Creek, a tributary in the city that drains to the Missouri River; three tributaries of the Little Blue River within the city (East Fork Little Blue River, Adair Creek, and Spring Branch Creek); and two sites on the main stem of the Little Blue River (one upstream from the city and one downstream from the three tributaries). Many factors such as population, land use, and climate, and combinations of these factors contributed to the significant changes in the concentrations and transport of nutrients, chloride, fecal indicator bacteria, and suspended sediment in the urban streams within Independence. The population of Independence and the amount of developed land in the urban watersheds remained unchanged during the 2005–18 study. Differences were noted in precipitation and in streamflow during the study. Annual precipitation and streamflow were separated into two time periods within the study—period 1 (2006–10), having greater annual streamflow and precipitation, and period 2 (2011–18), having about 30 percent lower annual streamflow and less precipitation. Streamflow was an important factor in the transport of nitrogen, phosphorus, chloride, and suspended sediment from the urban watersheds. Changes in data collection methodology during the study period and improvements to the city stormwater and wastewater infrastructure also could have contributed to some of the trends. Between 2009 and 2015, more than 35 million dollars of improvements were made to stormwater and wastewater infrastructure within the city. These improvements, such as additional sewage overflow holding tanks, removal of septic tanks, and improved and expanded sanitary sewer lines and storm overflows, also could have affected the decreased nutrients and fecal indicator bacteria trends among the urban streams in the study area. Models were used for analyzing streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations and loads to determine if the water quality changed significantly during the study period. Trends in concentration data at four sites were analyzed using a statistical package called R–QWTREND and trends in load data were analyzed at six sites using a statistical package called Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season-Kalman filter (WRTDS–K); both developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and publicly available for use. Statistically significant trends in flow-weighted nutrient concentrations and loads generally were downward during the study period. The only nutrient compound with a statistically significant upward trend in flow-weighted concentration was dissolved orthophosphate as phosphorus at the Rock Creek site and the upstream site on the Little Blue River. A statistically significant downward trend in annual dissolved ammonia load was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. A significant upward linear trend in annual orthophosphate as phosphorus load was identified on Adair Creek. A statistically significant upward trend in dissolved chloride concentrations was identified at the downstream Little Blue River site. Road salt application near the site during the winter could have resulted in higher concentrated runoff during wet weather conditions. Annual chloride loads significantly decreased in Adair Creek and Spring Branch Creek. The mean annual chloride load transported in the drier (2011–18) period 2 was significantly less than during the wetter (2006–10) period 1, indicating that trends in precipitation runoff are an important factor in trends in annual transport of chloride. Statistically significant downward trends in flow-weighted fecal indicator bacteria Escherichia coli (E. coli) population densities were noted for Rock Creek and the down-stream site on the Little Blue River. However, no trend was identified in E. coli population density at the upstream Little Blue River site. The downward trend in E. coli population density at the downstream site could be a result of decreased streamflow and precipitation over the study period, storage of fecal indicator bacteria in the Little Blue River streambed within the study area, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during travel from upstream to downstream, changes in the sample collection methodology, improvements to the city’s storm-water and wastewater infrastructures, or a combination of these factors. The statistically significant downward trend in suspended-sediment concentration identified at the upstream Little Blue River site could be affected by the decreased streamflow and precipitation during the study period, by changes in sampling methods within the study period, and by the decrease in construction and urban land development upstream from the city. No statistically significant change was indicated in the annual suspended-sediment load transported from Independence to the Little Blue River during the study period. More than one-half the suspended sediment transported in the Little Blue River originated in the watershed upstream from Independence. The Little Blue River and many of its tributaries that drain Independence have been designated as recreational waters classified for whole-body contact class B and secondary contact recreation, and some have been listed as impaired for E. coli by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources from urban runoff and storm sewers. Observations were made among the available E. coli population density data for both Little Blue River sites to further understand water-quality conditions over the study period. Both Little Blue River sites had similar medians and geometric means for the recreational season (April through October) and during the full study period, both of which are greater than the regulatory population density for both recreational classes. The Little Blue River drainage area nearly doubles in size from the upstream to downstream site; therefore, the consistent geometric mean and median of E. coli population densities at the upstream and downstream Little Blue River sites could be primarily due to the larger volume of streamflow creating a dilution effect. Other possible factors could be storage of fecal indicator bacteria in stream bed sediments, die-off of fecal indicator bacteria during transport, improvements to the city’s wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, changes to sampling methodology, or a combination of these factors. Specific sources of the E. coli are currently (2019) unknown.

Missouri↗

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Hydrology and water quality of Little Cross Creek, Cumberland County, North Carolina, 1996-98

Little Cross Creek is a small stream located in Cumberland County, North Carolina, in the Sand Hills area of the Coastal Plain Province. From August 1996 through August 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey collected streamflow, water-quality, and time-of-travel data at 10 sites in Little Cross Creek Basin to assess ambient conditions and compute loads of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon. Streamflows in the Little Cross Creek Basin responded to climatic factors and to human activities such as water withdrawals and controlled releases from impoundments. Peak streamflows were observed during the passages of Hurricane Fran in September 1996 and Hurricane Josephine in October 1996. Streamflows generally were lowest during the summer and early fall of 1997, reflecting drought conditions associated with a prevailing El Nino. At most sites, average streamflow per unit drainage area, or yield, was higher than yields reported previously for the Sand Hills. High yields may have resulted from unidentified inputs of water to the study basins or from underestimation of the contributing drainage area. Bonnie Doone Lake, Kornbow Lake, Mintz Pond, and Glenville Lake, four impoundments of Little Cross Creek, notably influence hydrology and water quality in the basin. Streamflow records indicate that these impoundments dampen peak stormflows and delay the downstream release of stormwater. Time of travel also is affected by seasonal stratification in the reservoirs. In general, sites downstream from reservoirs have lower concentrations of suspended sediment, turbidity, and total phosphorus than sites upstream from reservoirs or sites that receive stormwater runoff. Few water-quality problems were observed in the Little Cross Creek Basin for the constituents that were sampled. However, fecal coliform bacteria commonly exceeded 200 colonies per 100 milliliters at two of the seven monitored sites during the study. Relatively high concentrations of specific conductance, total phosphorus, and total ammonia plus organic nitrogen were observed in Clark Pond Creek, a tributary to Little Cross Creek. Loads and yields of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon were computed for the period from October 1996 through September 1997. The highest suspended-sediment yield (230 tons per square mile per year) occurred upstream from Bonnie Doone Lake, probably because there were no impoundments upstream from this site to intercept sediment. Sediment yields at the remaining Little Cross Creek sites were low relative to yields reported from other urban basins in North Carolina. Downstream from Kornbow Lake, yields of suspended sediment (9.50 tons per square mile per year) and total phosphorus (0.011 ton per square mile per year) were very low. Clark Pond Creek had the highest yields ot total phosphorus (0.081 ton per square mile per year) and total organic carbon (11.5 tons per square mile per year). However, total phosphorus yields at all of the Little Cross Creek sites generally were lower than yields measured in other urban basins in the State. Comparison of inflow and outflow loads for the four Little Cross Creek reservoirs from October 1996 through September 1997 indicated that Bonnie Doone Lake trapped 92 percent of incoming sediment and 37 percent of incoming total phosphorus. Kornbow Lake trapped 57 percent of incoming sediment and 77 percent of total phosphorus inputs. Nitrogen was not effectively trapped by any of the reservoirs. An influx of sediment, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon was noted at a site downstream from Mintz Pond, and may have resulted from stormwater discharge from the U.S. Highway 401 bypass or from additional, unidentified sources in the watershed downstream from Kornbow Lake.

North Carolina↗

Evaluation of nonpoint-source contamination, Wisconsin: water year 1999

The objective of the watershed-management evaluation monitoring program in Wisconsin is to evaluate the effectiveness of best-management practices (BMPs) for controlling nonpoint-source pollution in rural and urban watersheds. This progress report provides a summary of the data collected by the U.S Geological Survey for the program and a discussion of the results from several different detailed analyses conducted within this program. A land-use and best-management-practice inventory is ongoing for each evaluation monitoring project to track the different sources of nonpointsource pollution in each watershed and to document implementation of best-management programs that may cause changes in the water quality of streams. Updated information is gathered each year, mapped, and stored in a geographic-information-system database. Summaries of BMP-implementation data collected through the 1999 water year are presented in this report. Suspended sediment and total phosphorus storm-load and annual-load data are summarized for eight rural sites. For all 8 rural sites a sufficient number of pre-BMP storm samples have been collected; for two of the sites (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks), a sufficient number of post-BMP storm samples have been collected to allow for a final assessment of the effectiveness of the BMPs. For the remaining sites, numerous transitional storm samples have been collected, but in all cases BMP implementation has lagged such that there are insufficient post-BMP storm samples for final analysis. For two sites (Rattlesnake and Kuenster Creeks) there are not enough planned BMPs to warrant further data collection. Continuous dissolved-oxygen data collected at 5 rural sites are summarized. In terms of instantaneous concentrations when comparing pre-BMP data to transitional and post-BMP data, the general trend is a reduction in the number of days that the dissolved oxygen concentration was less than the state standard. These results are anecdotal, however; the differences have not been rigorously tested statistically. For a level of dissolved oxygen sustained over a continuous hour, the results are mixed. In general the number of days with standard violations has decreased, but there are notable exceptions. For the four urban streams, the pre-BMP data were examined to determine the level of improvement that could potentially be detected with a statistical analysis. Regression analyses were performed relating constituent loads of suspended solids, total phosphorus and total copper to various independent variables, including seasonal terms and variables related to rainfall. On the basis of the residuals from the regressions, there is a wide range of potential change that could be detected with an analysis of pre- and post-BMP loads. This is likely a result of the high degree of variability in the data, particularly from site to site. For suspended solids, total phosphorus, and total recoverable copper the minimum detectable changes ranges from 20-80, 30-70 and 30-90 percent, respectively. For two of the eight rural streams (Rattlesnake and Kuenster Creeks) minimal BMP implementation has occurred, hence a comparison of pre- BMP and data collected after BMP implementation began is not warranted. For two other rural streams (Brewery and Garfoot Creeks), BMP implementation is complete. For the four remaining rural streams (Bower, Otter, Eagle, and Joos Valley Creeks), the pre-BMP load data were compared to the transitional data to determine if significant reductions in the loads have occurred as a result of the BMP implementation to date. For all sites, the actual constituent loads for suspended solids and total phosphorus exhibit no statistically significant reductions after BMP installation. Multiple regressions were used to remove some of the natural variability in the data. Based on the residual analysis, for Otter Creek, there is a significant difference in the suspended-solids regression residuals between the pre-BMP and transitional periods, indicating a potential reduction as a result of the BMP implementation after accounting for natural variability. For Joos Valley Creek, the residuals for suspended solids and total phosphorus both show a significant reduction after accounting for natural variability. It is possible that the other sites will also show statistically significant reductions in suspended solids and total phosphorus if additional BMPs are implemented.

Wisconsin↗

Seasonal movements of the Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) in western North America as revealed by satellite telemetry

The Short-eared Owl ( Asio flammeus ) is a widespread raptor whose abundance and distribution fluctuates in response to the varying amplitudes of its prey, which are predominately microtines. Previous efforts to describe the seasonal movements of Short-eared Owls have been hindered by few band recoveries and the species' cryptic and irruptive behavior. We attached satellite transmitters to adult Short-eared Owls at breeding areas in western and interior Alaska in June 2009 and July 2010, and tracked their movements for up to 19 mo. Owls initiated long-distance southward movements from Alaska and most followed a corridor east of the Rocky Mountains into the Prairie provinces and Great Plains states. Four owls followed a coastal route west of the Rocky Mountains, including one owl that crossed the Gulf of Alaska. Completed autumn migration distances ranged from 3205–6886 km (mean = 4722 ± 1156 km [SD]). Wintering areas spanned 21° of latitude from central Montana to southern Texas, and 24° of longitude from central California to western Kansas. Subsequent seasonal migrations were generally northward in spring and southward in autumn; these movements were comparatively short-distance (mean = 767.5 ± 517.4 km [SD]) and the owls exhibited low site fidelity. The Short-eared Owls we tracked from two relatively local breeding areas in Alaska used a patchwork of diverse open habitats across a large area of North America, which highlights that effective conservation of this species requires a collaborative, continental-scale focus.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality characteristics of four urban land-use catchments in Fresno, California, October 1981 to April 1983

Rainfall and runoff quantity and quality were monitored for industrial, single-dwelling residential, multiple-dwelling residential, and commercial land-use catchments in Fresno, California, during 1981-82 and 1982-83 rain seasons. Storm-composite rainfall and discrete runoff samples were analyzed for physical, inorganic, organic, and biological constituents. Atmospheric dry-deposition- and street-surface particulate samples also were collected and analyzed. Except for the industrial catchment, highest runoff concentrations for most constituents occurred during initial storm runoff and then decreased throughout the remainder of the storm; constituent concentrations for the industrial catchment fluctuated greatly. Statistical testing of runoff-quality data showed higher concentration for most constituents for the industrial catchment. Lead showed lower concentrations for the industrial catchment than for the other three catchments. Event mean concentration (EMC) for most constituents for all but the industrial catchment were highest for the first two or three storms of the rain season after which they became almost constant; the industrial constituent EMC 's generally did not show any pattern. The organophosphorus compounds, parathion, diazinon, and malathion were the most prevalent pesticides detected in rainfall. Other pesticides detected in rainfall included chlordane, lindane, methoxychlor, endosulfan, and 2 ,4-D. Of these, only methoxychlor and endosulfan were not consistently detected in the runoff. (USGS)

California↗

Seasonal Variability and Effects of Stormflow on Concentrations of Pesticides and their Degradates in Kisco River and Middle Branch Croton River Surface Water, Croton Reservoir System, New York, May 2000-February 2001

Seven herbicides (2,4-D, 2,4-D methyl ester, bromacil, dicamba, diuron, imazaquin, and sulfometuron), four insecticides (carbaryl, diazinon, imidacloprid, and malathion), two fungicides (metalaxyl and myclobutanil), and caffeine (an indicator of wastewater) were detected in at least one sample from the Kisco River at concentrations above 0.1 ug/L (micrograms per liter). Four of these compounds - 2,4-D, 2,4-D methyl ester, dicamba, and metalaxyl - were detected in at least one sample from the Kisco River at a concentration above 1 ug/L. Only three herbicides (2,4-D, imazethapyr, and prometon) and caffeine were detected at concentrations above 0.1 ug/L in one or more of the Middle Branch Croton River samples, and no compounds were detected above 0.4 ug/L in Middle Branch Croton River samples. No samples contained concentrations of pesticides that exceeded human health-based water-quality standards. However, samples from the Kisco River contained four insecticides (carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, and malathion) and one herbicide (2,4-D) in concentrations that exceeded water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life. Aquatic-life protection criteria were generally exceeded only in stormflow samples collected in June, September, and December 2000. No samples from the Middle Branch Croton River contained target compounds that exceeded water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic life. Pesticide concentrations were generally higher, and the numbers of compounds generally larger in samples from the Kisco River than in samples from the Middle Branch Croton River, probably because the Kisco River watershed has a greater population density and is more extensively developed. The highest concentrations of most compounds in both streams were detected in stormflow samples collected in June, September, and December 2000. This indicates that stormflow sampling is essential in assessments of pesticide occurrence in streams that drain developed lands. The lowest concentrations of most compounds at both sites were detected in baseflow samples collected from October 2000 through February 2001, although the concentrations of several compounds increased substantially during stormflows at the Kisco River site in November and December, 2000.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Hydrology, water quality, and potential alternatives for water-resources development in the Río Majada and Río Lapa basins near the Albergue Olimpico, southern Puerto Rico

A water-resources investigation was conducted during 1989 in the Rio Lapa mountain basins in southern Puerto Rico, to define the hydrology, water quality, and to describe alternatives for additional water- resources supply. The total water budget for both surface- and ground-water resources in the study area was estimated to be 7,530 acre-feet per year for 1989. The water budget for the ground-water system, from which water needs are supplied in the study area, was estimated to be 2,760 acre-feet per year for 1989. Concentration of dissolved solids and fecal bacteria increased during the dry season as both streamflow and ground-water levels decreased. Water samples collected at two stream sites exceeded the recommended U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fecal bacteria concentration for natural water of 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters during June to November 1989. Water samples obtained from a well in the Rio Lapa Valley exceeded the secondary drinking-water standard for dissolved solids of 500 milligrams per liter during four dry months. In addition, fecal bacteria concentrations at this water-supply well exceeded the primary fecal- bacteria drinking-water standard of 1 colony per 100 milliliter during June to October 1989. Existing water resources can probably be developed to meet additional demands of 110 acre-feet per year pro- jected for 1995. Storage of the surface-water runoff during the wet season and its gradual release to the study area could offset ground-water declines during the dry season. Ground-water withdrawals can be increased by the construction and use of low- capacity wells to reduce the amount of water lowing out of the study area.

Puerto Rico↗

Landscape matrix mediates occupancy dynamics of Neotropical avian insectivores

In addition to patch‐level attributes (i.e., area and isolation), the nature of land cover between habitat patches (the matrix) may drive colonization and extinction dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Despite a long‐standing recognition of matrix effects in fragmented systems, an understanding of the relative impacts of different types of land cover on patterns and dynamics of species occurrence remains limited. We employed multi‐season occupancy models to determine the relative influence of patch area, patch isolation, within‐patch vegetation structure, and landscape matrix on occupancy dynamics of nine Neotropical insectivorous birds in 99 forest patches embedded in four matrix types (agriculture, suburban development, bauxite mining, and forest) in central Jamaica. We found that within‐patch vegetation structure and the matrix type between patches were more important than patch area and patch isolation in determining local colonization and local extinction probabilities, and that the effects of patch area, isolation, and vegetation structure on occupancy dynamics tended to be matrix and species dependent. Across the avian community, the landscape matrix influenced local extinction more than local colonization, indicating that extinction processes, rather than movement, likely drive interspecific differences in occupancy dynamics. These findings lend crucial empirical support to the hypothesis that species occupancy dynamics in fragmented systems may depend greatly upon the landscape context.

Clarendon Parish, Manchester Parish↗

A brief investigation of the surface-water hydrology of Yemen Arab Republic

Yemen, near the southwest tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is a mountainous country bordered by a desert on the east and a coastal plain on the west. Rainfall is low and seasonal; consequently, most streams (wadis) are ephemeral. The natural flow regimens of many of the smaller wadis are modified by terracing for agriculture. The only streamflow data available in Yemen are short records on four large wadis. A brief field investigation and application of reconnaissance techniques are the bases for the largely qualitative description of the hydrology, and for the proposal to collect streamflow data needed for orderly development of the expanding economy. (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Relations between DNA- and RNA-based molecular methods for cyanobacteria and microcystin concentration at Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, Oregon, Ohio, 2012

Water samples were collected from Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, Oregon, Ohio, during the 2012 recreational season and analyzed for selected cyanobacteria gene sequences by DNA-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and RNA-based quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Results from the four DNA assays (for quantifying total cyanobacteria, total Microcystis , and Microcystis and Planktothrix strains that possess the microcystin synthetase E ( mcyE ) gene) and two RNA assays (for quantifying Microcystis and Planktothrix genera that are expressing the microcystin synthetase E ( mcyE ) gene) were compared to microcystin concentration results determined by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Concentrations of the target in replicate analyses were log10 transformed. The average value of differences in log10 concentrations for the replicates that had at least one detection were found to range from 0.05 to >0.37 copy per 100 milliliters (copy/100 mL) for DNA-based methods and from >0.04 to >0.17 copy/100 mL for RNA-based methods. RNA has a shorter half-life than DNA; consequently, a 24-hour holding-time study was done to determine the effects of holding time on RNA concentrations. Holding-time comparisons for the RNA-based Microcystis toxin mcyE assay showed reductions in the number of copies per 100 milliliters over 24 hours. The log difference between time 2 hours and time 24 hours was >0.37 copy/100 mL, which was higher than the analytical variability (log difference of >0.17 copy/100 mL). Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that microcystin toxin concentrations were moderately to highly related to DNA-based assay results for total cyanobacteria (rho=0.69), total Microcystis (rho=0.74), and Microcystis strains that possess the mcyE gene (rho=0.81). Microcystin toxin concentrations were strongly related with RNA-based assay results for Microcystis mcyE gene expression (rho=0.95). Correlation analysis could not be done for Planktothrix mcyE gene expression because of too few detections.

Ohio↗

Optimization assessment of a groundwater-level observation network in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA), measures groundwater levels continuously (hourly) and discretely (semiannually and annually) at a network of wells and piezometers (hereafter called the observation network) within the Middle Rio Grande Basin in central New Mexico. Groundwater levels that are measured in this observation network provide a long-term hydrologic dataset that is heavily relied upon to make water management decisions. The desire to upgrade and perform maintenance on this observation network initiated this study, which assesses the spatial and temporal importance of measurements towards optimization of monitoring the observation network to reduce or redirect monitoring costs. This report describes the methods and results of the optimization assessment of this observation network, which included separate spatial and temporal methodologies and an evaluation using principal component analysis (PCA). Results from the spatial optimization assessment can be used to help identify observation network sites that do not significantly affect the generation of winter groundwater-elevation contour maps of the production zone. Results from the temporal optimization assessment and PCA can also be consulted when deciding which sites to remove from the network, especially for sites that are monitored more frequently than annually. Results from the temporal optimization assessment can be used to inform the minimum monitoring frequency at the observation network required to capture the trends shown in higher frequency monitoring. The PCA results distinguish spatially distributed characteristic water-level trends that can inform the management decisions that are made when using the spatial and temporal optimization assessment results. Reducing the temporal frequency or spatial density of monitoring is ultimately a management decision that depends on the amount of data loss or degradation that is deemed acceptable while still meeting the network objectives of the ABCWUA. This study can also serve as a starting point to a data gap analysis of local aquifer characteristics and help guide enhanced observation network design as needs arise or in advance of future water management decisions. The results of the spatial optimization assessment indicate that as many as about 20 specified sites can be removed from the observation network with a relatively small loss in the ability to represent the kriged groundwater-elevation surfaces of the production zone that were generated by using median groundwater elevations for two periods: the 2001 time interval and 2015 time interval. This analysis also demonstrated the importance of wells at the margin of the study area and in areas where there are large hydrologic gradients. At many of the 47 hourly monitored sites analyzed in the temporal optimization assessment, temporal trends were well represented for at least one of the reduced monitoring frequencies tested, indicating that a reduced frequency may be sufficient to adequately characterize seasonal and long-term trends. PCA and k-means clustering analysis of the 15 hourly monitored sites that are screened within the production zone indicate that the sites can be categorized into four groups, or clusters, of differing groundwater-level hydrograph characteristics. Except for one cluster, all of the clusters have the potential to be well represented by fewer index monitoring sites.

New Mexico↗

Landscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest

Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to minimize fire risk and enhance watershed function. The implications of these restoration projects for drought vulnerability are not well understood. Here, we examined how planned restoration treatments in the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, the largest forest restoration project in the United States, would alter landscape‐scale patterns of forest growth and drought vulnerability throughout the 21 st century. Using drought‐growth relationships developed within the landscape, we considered a suite of climate and treatment scenarios and estimated average forest growth and the proportion of years with extremely low growth as a measure of vulnerability to long‐term decline. Climatic shifts projected for this landscape include higher temperatures and shifting seasonal precipitation that promotes lower soil moisture availability in the early growing season and greater hot‐dry stress, conditions negatively associated with tree growth. However, drought severity and the magnitude of future growth declines was moderated by the thinning treatments. Compared to historical conditions, proportional growth in mid‐century declines by ~40% if thinning ceases or continues at the status quo pace. By comparison, proportional growth declines by only 20% if the Four Forest Restoration Initiative treatments are fully implemented, and < 10% if stands are thinned even more intensively than currently planned. Furthermore, restoration treatments resulted in dramatically fewer years with extremely low growth in the future, a recognized precursor to forest decline and eventual tree mortality. Benefits from density reduction for mitigating drought‐induced growth declines are more apparent in mid‐century and under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 at the end of the century. Future climate is inherently uncertain, and our results only reflect the climate projections from the representative suite of models examined. Nevertheless, these results indicate that forest restoration projects designed for other objectives also have substantial benefits for minimizing future drought vulnerability in dry forests and provide additional incentive to accelerate the pace of restoration.

Ecological Applications↗

Sedimentology and stratigraphy of the Kanayut Conglomerate, central Brooks Range, Alaska: Report of 1980 field season

The Upper Devonian Kanayut Conglomerate crops out along the crest of the Brooks Range of northern Alaska for a distance of almost 1000 km. It ranges in thickness from 2600 m in the Atigun River area to 700 m south of Anaktuvuk Pass and has been subdivided into four regionally persistent members: (a) the basal sandstone member, consisting of marine sandstone and shale with some conglomerate; (b) the lower shale member, consisting of nonmarine quartzite, conglomerate and shale; (c) the middle conglomerate member, consisting of nonmarine pebble and cobble conglomerate and quartzite; and (d) the Stuver Member, consisting of nonmarine sandstone and shale. The Kanayut conformably overlies the Upper Devonian marine Hunt Fork Shale and is conformably overlain by the Mississippian marine Kayak Shale. The Kanayut is wholly allochthonous and has probably been transported northward on a series of thrust plates. The basal sandstone member of the Kanayut Conglomerate, which overlies prodelta turbidites of the Hunt Fork Shale, contains marginal-marine coarsening-upward channel-mouth bar sequences. It is conformably overlain by the lower shale member. Measured sections of the nonmarine members of the Kanayut show that the lower shale member ranges in thickness from 120 m to 1115 m and consists of fining-upward cycles interpreted to have been deposited by meandering streams on a broad floodplain. These cycles contain, in ascending order, channelized basal conglomerate, trough cross-stratified sandstone, and ripple-marked siltstone. The cycles are interpreted to be channel and point-bar deposits. Individual cycles average about 10 m in thickness and are separated by intervals of black, brown or maroon floodplain shale deposits. These typically contain thin coarsening-upward units that probably represent prograding levee sequences and irregular and ungraded sandstone bodies interpreted to be crevasse-splay deposits. In the Okokmilaga River area, the lower shale member contains a distinctive coarse-grained unit which is burrowed and interpreted to represent a widespread marine incursion. The middle conglomerate member, which ranges in thickness from 155 m to 525 m, consists of braidplain deposits. It contains fining-upward couplets of conglomerate and parallel-stratified or cross-stratified sandstone that average 2-7 m in thickness. The couplets record deposition in channels and on bars of braided streams. The middle conglomerate member contains the largest clasts, little or no shale, and represents the maximum progradation of nonmarine sedimentation in the Kanayut depositional system. The Stuver Member consists of fining-upward cycles that resemble those of the lower shale member. It ranges in thickness from 160 m to 1400 m and grades upward into tidal and marginal-marine deposits of the Kayak Shale. Conglomerate in the Kanayut is compositionally very mature, averaging 82 percent white, gray, black or red chert clasts, 14 percent vein quartz clasts, 3 percent quartzite clasts, and less than I percent other lithologies, mainly argillite. Although red chert is locally abundant in the Shainin Lake-Galbraith Lake area, there is little variation in conglomerate composition in the Kanayut, suggesting derivation from a single major source terrane.

Alaska↗

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 10 6 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

Oikos↗

Organic carbon trends, loads, and yields to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, water years 1980 to 2000

Organic carbon, nutrient, and suspended sediment concentration data were analyzed for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins for the period 1980-2000. The data were retrieved from three sources: the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Information System, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Storage and Retrieval System, and the California Interagency Ecological Program's relational database. Twenty sites were selected, all of which had complete records of daily streamflow data. These data met the minimal requirements of the statistical programs used to estimate trends, loads, and yields. The seasonal Kendall program was used to estimate trends in organic carbon, nutrient, and suspended sediment. At all 20 sites, analyses showed that in the 145 analyses for the seven constituents, 95 percent of the analyses had no significant trend. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were significant only for four sites: the American River at Sacramento, the Sacramento River sites near Freeport, Orestimba Creek at River Roads near Crows Landing, and the San Joaquin River near Vernalis. Loads were calculated using two programs, ESTIMATOR and LOADEST2. The 1998 water year was selected to describe loads in the Sacramento River Basin. Organic carbon, nutrient, and suspended sediment loads at the Sacramento River sites near Freeport included transported loads from two main upstream sites: the Sacramento River at Verona and the American River at Sacramento. Loads in the Sacramento River Basin were affected by the amount of water diverted to the Yolo Bypass (the amount varies annually, depending on the precipitation and streamflow). Loads at the Sacramento River sites near Freeport were analyzed for two hydrologic seasons: the irrigation season (April to September) and the nonirrigation season (October to March). DOC loads are lower during the irrigation season then they are during the nonirrigation season. During the irrigation season, water with low concentrations of DOC is released from reservoirs and used for irrigation. On the other hand, during the nonirrigation season, streamflow results from surface water runoff and has higher concentrations of organic carbon, nutrients, and suspended sediment. The 1986 and 1987 water years were selected to describe loads in the San Joaquin River Basin. Organic carbon, nutrient, and suspended sediment loads in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis included transported loads from upstream sites, such as the Mud and Salt Sloughs, the Merced River at River Roads Bridge near Newman, the Tuolumne River at Modesto, and the Stanislaus River at Ripon. Loads at the San Joaquin River near Vernalis also were analyzed for the two seasons. The DOC load for the San Joaquin River at Vernalis is slightly higher during the irrigation season. Yields were calculated in an attempt to rank the subbasins in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins. Five sites delivered streamflow from agricultural and urban sources that had relatively high yields of organic carbon: Sacramento Slough near Knights Landing, Arcade Creek near Del Paso Heights, Salt Slough, Mud Slough, and Colusa Basin Drain at Road 99E near Knights Landing.

California↗

Effects of alternative instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options in the Big River Area, Rhode Island

Transient numerical ground-water-flow simulation and optimization techniques were used to evaluate potential effects of instream-flow criteria and water-supply demands on ground-water development options and resultant streamflow depletions in the Big River Area, Rhode Island. The 35.7 square-mile (mi2) study area includes three river basins, the Big River Basin (30.9 mi2), the Carr River Basin (which drains to the Big River Basin and is 7.33 mi2 in area), the Mishnock River Basin (3.32 mi2), and a small area that drains directly to the Flat River Reservoir. The overall objective of the simulations was to determine the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn from the three basins when constrained by streamflow requirements at four locations in the study area and by maximum rates of withdrawal at 13 existing and hypothetical well sites. The instream-flow requirement for the outlet of each basin and the outfall of Lake Mishnock were the primary variables that limited the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. A requirement to meet seasonal ground-water-demand patterns also limits the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn by up to about 50 percent of the total withdrawals without the demand-pattern constraint. Minimum water-supply demands from a public water supplier in the Mishnock River Basin, however, did not have a substantial effect on withdrawals in the Big River Basin. Hypothetical dry-period instream-flow requirements and the effects of artificial recharge also affected the amount of ground water that could be withdrawn. Results of simulations indicate that annual average ground-water withdrawal rates that range up to 16 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) can be withdrawn from the study area under simulated average hydrologic conditions depending on instream-flow criteria and water-supply demand patterns. Annual average withdrawals of 10 to 12 Mgal/d are possible for proposed demands of 3.4 Mgal/d in the Mishnock Basin, and for a constant annual instream-flow criterion of 0.5 cubic foot per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2) at the four streamflow-constraint locations. An average withdrawal rate of 10 Mgal/d can meet estimates of future (2020) water-supply needs of surrounding communities in Rhode Island. This withdrawal rate represents about 13 percent of the average 2002 daily withdrawal from the Scituate Reservoir (76 Mgal/d), the State?s largest water supply. Average annual withdrawal rates of 6 to 7 Mgal/d are possible for more stringent instream-flow criteria that might be used during dry-period hydrologic conditions. Two example scenarios of dry-period instream-flow constraints were evaluated: first, a minimum instream flow of 0.1 cubic foot per second at any of the four constraint locations; and second, a minimum instream flow of 10 percent of the minimum monthly streamflow estimate for each streamflow-constraint location during the period 1961?2000. The State of Rhode Island is currently (2004) considering methods for establishing instream-flow criteria for streams within the State. Twelve alternative annual, seasonal, or monthly instream-flow criteria that have been or are being considered for application in southeastern New England were used as hypothetical constraints on maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates in management-model calculations. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 5 to 16 Mgal/d under five alternative annual instream-flow criteria. Maximum ground-water-withdrawal rates ranged from 0 to 13.6 Mgal/d under seven alternative seasonal or monthly instream-flow criteria. The effect of ground-water withdrawals on seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows under each criterion also were compared. Evaluation of management-model results indicates that a single annual instream-flowcriterion may be sufficient to preserve seasonal variations in monthly average streamflows and meet water-supply demands in the Big River Area, because withdrawals from wells in the Big

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Temporal variation in bird and resource abundance across an elevational gradient in Hawaii

We documented patterns of nectar availability and nectarivorous bird abundance over ~3 years at nine study sites across an 1,800-m elevational gradient on Hawaii Island to investigate the relationship between resource variation and bird abundance. Flower density (flowers ha -1 ) and nectar energy content were measured across the gradient for the monodominant 'Ōhi'a ( Metrosideros polymorpha ). Four nectarivorous bird species were captured monthly in mist nets and surveyed quarterly with point-transect distance sampling at each site to examine patterns of density and relative abundance. Flowering peaks were associated with season but not rainfall or elevation. Bird densities peaked in the winter and spring of each year at high elevations, but patterns were less clear at middle and low elevations. Variability in bird abundance was generally best modeled as a function of elevation, season, and flower density, but the strength of the latter effect varied with species. The low elevations had the greatest density of flowers but contained far fewer individuals of the two most strongly nectarivorous species. There is little evidence of large-scale altitudinal movement of birds in response to 'Ōhi'a flowering peaks. The loose relationship between nectar and bird abundance may be explained by a number of potential mechanisms, including (1) demographic constraints to movement; (2) nonlimiting nectar resources; and (3) the presence of an "ecological trap," whereby birds are attracted by the high resource abundance of, but suffer increased mortality at, middle and low elevations as a result of disease.

Hawai'i↗