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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Test of a non-physical barrier consisting of light, sound, and bubble screen to block upstream movement of sea lamprey in an experimental raceway

Control of the invasive Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus is critical for management of commercial and recreational fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Use of physical barriers to block Sea Lampreys from spawning habitat is a major component of the control program. However, the resulting interruption of natural streamflow and blockage of nontarget species present substantial challenges. Development of an effective nonphysical barrier would aid the control of Sea Lampreys by eliminating their access to spawning locations while maintaining natural streamflow. We tested the effect of a nonphysical barrier consisting of strobe lights, low-frequency sound, and a bubble screen on the movement of Sea Lampreys in an experimental raceway designed as a two-choice maze with a single main channel fed by two identical inflow channels (one control and one blocked). Sea Lampreys were more likely to move upstream during trials when the strobe light and low-frequency sound were active compared with control trials and trials using the bubble screen alone. For those Sea Lampreys that did move upstream to the confluence of inflow channels, no combination of stimuli or any individual stimulus significantly influenced the likelihood that Sea Lampreys would enter the blocked inflow channel, enter the control channel, or return downstream.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2002

Rare earth element variations resulting from inversion of pigeonite and subsolidus reequilibration in lunar ferroan anorthosites

We present results of a secondary ion mass spectrometry study of the rare earth elements (REEs) in the minerals of two samples of lunar ferroan anorthosite, and the results are applicable to studies of REEs in all igneous rocks, no matter what their planet of origin. Our pyroxene analyses are used to determine solid-solid REE distribution coefficients (D = C REE in low-Ca pyroxene/C REE in augite) in orthopyroxene-augite pairs derived by inversion of pigeonite. Our data and predictions from crystal-chemical considerations indicate that as primary pigeonite inverts to orthopyroxene plus augite and subsolidus reequilibration proceeds, the solid-solid Ds for orthopyroxene-augite pairs progressively decrease for all REEs; the decrease is greatest for the LREEs. The REE pattern of solid-solid Ds for inversion-derived pyroxene pairs is close to a straight line for Sm-Lu and turns upward for REEs lighter than Sm; the shape of this pattern is predicted by the shapes of the REE patterns for the individual minerals. Equilibrium liquids calculated for one sample from the compositions of primary phases, using measured or experimentally determined solid-liquid Ds, have chondrite-normalized REE patterns that are very slightly enriched in LREEs. The plagioclase equilibrium liquid is overall less rich in REEs than pyroxene equilibrium liquids, and the discrepancy probably arises because the calculated plagioclase equilibrium liquid represents a liquid earlier in the fractionationsequence than the pyroxene equilibrium liquids. “Equilibrium” liquids calculated from the compositions of inversion-derived pyroxenes or orthopyroxene derived by reaction of olivine are LREE depleted (in some cases substantially) in comparison with equilibrium liquids calculated from the compositions of primary phases. These discrepancies arise because the inversion-derived and reaction-derived pyroxenes did not crystallize directly from liquid, and the use of solid-liquid Ds is inappropriate. The LREE depletion of the calculated liquids is a relic of formation of these phases from primary LREE-depleted minerals. Thus, if one attempts to calculate the compositions of equilibrium liquids from pyroxene compositions, it is important to establish that the pyroxenes are primary. In addition, our data suggest that experimental studies have underestimated solid-liquid Ds for REEs in pigeonite and that REE contents of liquids calculated using these Ds are overestimates. Our results have implications for Sm-Nd age studies. Our work shows that if pigeonite inversion and/or subsolidus reequilibration between augite and orthopyroxene occurred significantly after crystallization, and if pyroxene separates isolated for Sm-Nd studies do not have the bulk composition of the primary pyroxenes, then the Sm-Nd isochron age and ε Nd will be in error.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗
USGS2013

Effects of error covariance structure on estimation of model averaging weights and predictive performance

When conducting model averaging for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty, the averaging weights are often evaluated using model selection criteria such as AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC (Akaike Information Criterion, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Kashyap Information Criterion, respectively). However, this method often leads to an unrealistic situation in which the best model receives overwhelmingly large averaging weight (close to 100%), which cannot be justified by available data and knowledge. It was found in this study that this problem was caused by using the covariance matrix, C E , of measurement errors for estimating the negative log likelihood function common to all the model selection criteria. This problem can be resolved by using the covariance matrix, C ek , of total errors (including model errors and measurement errors) to account for the correlation between the total errors. An iterative two-stage method was developed in the context of maximum likelihood inverse modeling to iteratively infer the unknown C ek from the residuals during model calibration. The inferred C ek was then used in the evaluation of model selection criteria and model averaging weights. While this method was limited to serial data using time series techniques in this study, it can be extended to spatial data using geostatistical techniques. The method was first evaluated in a synthetic study and then applied to an experimental study, in which alternative surface complexation models were developed to simulate column experiments of uranium reactive transport. It was found that the total errors of the alternative models were temporally correlated due to the model errors. The iterative two-stage method using C ek resolved the problem that the best model receives 100% model averaging weight, and the resulting model averaging weights were supported by the calibration results and physical understanding of the alternative models. Using C ek obtained from the iterative two-stage method also improved predictive performance of the individual models and model averaging in both synthetic and experimental studies.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1970

Chemical indicators of subsurface temperature applied to hot spring waters of Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, U.S.A.

Under favorable conditions the chemistry of hot springs may give reliable indications of subsurface temperatures and circulation patterns. These chemical indicators can be classified by the type of process involved: Indicator Dominant Process The silica geothermometer Solution-precipitation Alkali ratios Ion exchange Cl/(HCO 3 + CO 3 ) ratio Rock alteration by dissolved CO 2 Relative concentration of Partitioning owing to subsur- volatiles in spring water face boning All these indicators have certain limitations. The silica geothermometer gives results independent of the local mineral suite and gas partial pressures, but may be affected by dilution. Alkali ratios are strongly affected by the local mineral suite and the formation of complex ions. Carbonate-chloride ratios are strongly affected by subsurface P CO2 . The relative concentration of volatiles can be very misleading in high-pressure liquid systems. In Yellowstone National Park most thermal waters issue from hot, shallow aquifers with pressures in excess of hydrostatic by 2 to 6 bars and with large flows (the flow of hot spring water from the Park is greater than 4000 liters per second). These conditions should be ideal for the use of chemical indicators to estimate aquifer temperatures. In five drill holes aquifer temperatures were within 2°C of that predicted from the silica content of nearby hot springs; the temperature level off at a lower value than predicted in only one hole, and in four other holes drilling was terminated before the predicted aquifer temperature was reached. The temperature-Na/K ratio relationship does not follow any published experimental or empirical curve for water-feldspar or water-clay reactions. We suspect that ion exchange reactions involving zeolites in the Yellowstone rocks result in higher Na/K ratios at given temperatures than result from feldspar or clay reactions. Comparison of SiO 2 and Cl/(HCO 3 + CO 3 ) suggest that because of higher subsurface P CO2 in Upper Geyser Basin a given Cl/(HCO 3 + CO 3 ) ratio there means a higher temperature than in Lower Geyser Basin. No correlation was found in Yellowstone Park between the subsurface regions of highest temperature and the relative concentration of volatile components such as boron and ammonia.

Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Dryland fungi are spatially heterogeneous and resistant to global change drivers

Fungi are considered particularly important in regulating the structure and function of dryland ecosystems, yet the response of dryland fungal communities to global change remains notably understudied. Without a clear understanding of how fungi respond to global change drivers, mitigation plans—required for biodiversity and ecosystem service conservation and restoration—are impossible to develop. In this study, we asked the following: (1) How does the fungal community respond to the individual and interactive effects of physical disturbance and drought in a heterogeneous dryland landscape comprised of drought-adapted shrubs separated by adjacent open areas of soil? (2) What are the larger scale impacts of this response? We assessed fungal communities (using fungal-specific DNA metabarcoding analyses) of surface soil samples in an in situ global change experiment that included disturbance and drought in a full factorial design in the northern extent of the Chihuahuan Desert. We found that the fungal community was spatially heterogenous and remarkably resistant to disturbance and drought. We also show that dryland soils harbor high shares of facultative pathogenic and obligately pathogenic fungal taxa, with several concerning taxa reaching high relative abundances under drought. Our results suggest that the fungal community is highly influenced by microclimatic conditions associated with the presence or absence of vegetation. Moreover, our results imply that the fungal community in our experiment was already adapted to the magnitude of stress imposed by two years of experimental disturbance and drought treatments. Overall, our study shows that the fungal community is spatially heterogeneous and resistant to global change drivers and houses many fungal species known for being stress tolerant and pathogenic.

New Mexico↗
USGS2009

Composition of the seed bank in drawdown areas of navigation pool 8 of the upper Mississippi river

In an effort to enhance aquatic plant production and habitat diversity on the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), resource managers considered water level reduction as a management tool to increase the area of emergent and submersed aquatic vegetation by natural seed germination. To quantify the availability of seed, we assessed the potential seed bank of selected areas of Navigation Pool 8 of the UMR from substrate samples collected in spring 2000. We tested these samples for viable seed content under four hydrologic conditions: dry, moist, shallow flooded and submerged. Forty-seven species were identified in the seed bank, including 27 obligate wetland, 10 facultative wetland and 7 upland species. Dominant taxa within the seed bank included Sagittaria spp., Lindernia dubia, Zosterella dubia, Cyperus spp., Eragrostis spp. and Leersia oryzoides. Of the four hydrologic treatments, moist substrates had the greatest species diversity and were the most productive, yielding an average density of 1420 seedlings m -2 . Emergent and submersed aquatic species were widely distributed, each type occurring in more than 90% of the samples. Timing of seedling germination varied among species and has implications for scheduling drawdowns to promote establishment of desired species. Seed bank results were correlated with the vegetation response on substrates exposed during a reduction of water levels of Pool 8 during summer 2001. Experimentally determining the composition and viability of seed banks from drawdown areas provides information useful in predicting the types of vegetation that may develop on exposed substrates. Further, these findings provide resource managers a better understanding of the potential for achieving desired vegetation response through water level reductions.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2004

Diclofenac residues as the cause of vulture population decline in Pakistan

The Oriental white-backed vulture (OWBV; Gyps bengalensis ) was once one of the most common raptors in the Indian subcontinent 1 . A population decline of >95%, starting in the 1990s, was first noted at Keoladeo National Park, India 2 . Since then, catastrophic declines, also involving Gyps indicus and Gyps tenuirostris , have continued to be reported across the subcontinent 3 . Consequently these vultures are now listed as critically endangered by BirdLife International 4 . In 2000, the Peregrine Fund initiated its Asian Vulture Crisis Project with the Ornithological Society of Pakistan, establishing study sites at 16 OWBV colonies in the Kasur, Khanewal and Muzaffargarh–Layyah Districts of Pakistan to measure mortality at over 2,400 active nest sites 5 . Between 2000 and 2003, high annual adult and subadult mortality (5–86%) and resulting population declines (34–95%) (ref. 5 and M.G., manuscript in preparation) were associated with renal failure and visceral gout. Here, we provide results that directly correlate residues of the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac with renal failure. Diclofenac residues and renal disease were reproduced experimentally in OWBVs by direct oral exposure and through feeding vultures diclofenac-treated livestock. We propose that residues of veterinary diclofenac are responsible for the OWBV decline.

Nature↗
USGS2005

Diversity and abundance of forest frogs (Anura: Leptodactylidae) before and after Hurricane Georges in the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico

Caribbean hurricanes often impact terrestrial vertebrates in forested environments. On 21 September 1998, Hurricane Georges impacted Puerto Rico with sustained winds in excess of 166 km/hr, causing damage to forests of the island's principal mountain range; the Cordillera Central. We estimated forest frog abundance and diversity from call counts conducted along marked transects before and after Hurricane Georges in two forests reserves of the Cordillera Central (Maricao and Guilarte). We used distance sampling to estimate density of Eleutherodactylus coqui and recorded counts of other species. After the hurricane, the abundance of E. coqui increased in both reserves compared to prehurricane levels while abundance of other frog species decreased. In Maricao, relative abundance of E. richmondi (P = 0.013) and E. brittoni (P = 0.034) were significantly lower after the hurricane. Moreover, species richness and evenness of the Maricao and Guilarte frog assemblages declined after the hurricane. Our results on abundance patterns of the forest frog assemblages of Maricao and Guilarte Forests were similar to those reported from the Luquillo Experimental Forest after Hurricane Hugo in September 1989. Long-term demographic patterns of the forest frog assemblages in the Cordillera Central may be associated with changes due to the ecological succession in post-hurricane forests. Copyright 2005 College of Arts and Sciences.

Caribbean Journal of Science↗
USGS2016

Experimental whole-lake increase of dissolved organic carbon concentration produces unexpected increase in crustacean zooplankton density

The observed pattern of lake browning, or increased terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, across the northern hemisphere has amplified the importance of understanding how consumer productivity varies with DOC concentration. Results from comparative studies suggest these increased DOC concentrations may reduce crustacean zooplankton productivity due to reductions in resource quality and volume of suitable habitat. Although these spatial comparisons provide an expectation for the response of zooplankton productivity as DOC concentration increases, we still have an incomplete understanding of how zooplankton respond to temporal increases in DOC concentration within a single system. As such, we used a whole-lake manipulation, in which DOC concentration was increased from 8 to 11 mg L−1 in one basin of a manipulated lake, to test the hypothesis that crustacean zooplankton production should subsequently decrease. In contrast to the spatially derived expectation of sharp DOC-mediated decline, we observed a small increase in zooplankton densities in response to our experimental increase in DOC concentration of the treatment basin. This was due to significant increases in gross primary production and resource quality (lower seston carbon-to-phosphorus ratio; C:P). These results demonstrate that temporal changes in lake characteristics due to increased DOC may impact zooplankton in ways that differ from those observed in spatial surveys. We also identified significant interannual variability across our study region, which highlights potential difficulty in detecting temporal responses of organism abundances to gradual environmental change (e.g., browning).

Michigan↗
USGS2007

Hydrological applications of Landsat imagery used in the study of the 1973 Indus River flood, Pakistan

During August and September 1973, the Indus River Valley of Pakistan experienced one of the largest floods on record, resulting in damages to homes, businesses, public works, and crops amounting to millions of rupees. Tremendous areas of lowlands were inundated along the Indus River and major tributaries. Landsat data made it possible to easily measure the extent of flooding, totaling about 20,000 km 2 within an area of about 400,000 km 2 south from the Punjab to the Arabian Sea. The Indus River data were used to continue experimentation in the development of rapid, accurate, and inexpensive optical techniques of flood mapping by satellite begun in 1973 for the Mississipi River floods. The research work on the Indus River not resulted in the development of more effective procedures for optical processing of flood data and synoptically depicting flooding, but also provided potentially valuable ancillary information concerning the hydrology of much of the Indus River Basin.

Indus River Basin↗
USGS2008

Assessing manure management strategies through small-plot research and whole-farm modeling

Plot-scale experimentation can provide valuable insight into the effects of manure management practices on phosphorus (P) runoff, but whole-farm evaluation is needed for complete assessment of potential trade offs. Artificially-applied rainfall experimentation on small field plots and event-based and long-term simulation modeling were used to compare P loss in runoff related to two dairy manure application methods (surface application with and without incorporation by tillage) on contrasting Pennsylvania soils previously under no-till management. Results of single-event rainfall experiments indicated that average dissolved reactive P losses in runoff from manured plots decreased by up to 90% with manure incorporation while total P losses did not change significantly. Longer-term whole farm simulation modeling indicated that average dissolved reactive P losses would decrease by 8% with manure incorporation while total P losses would increase by 77% due to greater erosion from fields previously under no-till. Differences in the two methods of inference point to the need for caution in extrapolating research findings. Single-event rainfall experiments conducted shortly after manure application simulate incidental transfers of dissolved P in manure to runoff, resulting in greater losses of dissolved reactive P. However, the transfer of dissolved P in applied manure diminishes with time. Over the annual time frame simulated by whole farm modeling, erosion processes become more important to runoff P losses. Results of this study highlight the need to consider the potential for increased erosion and total P losses caused by soil disturbance during incorporation. This study emphasizes the ability of modeling to estimate management practice effectiveness at the larger scales when experimental data is not available.

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation↗
USGS1998

A model that helps explain Sr-isotope disequilibrium between feldspar phenocrysts and melt in large-volume silicic magma systems

Feldspar phenocrysts of silicic volcanic rocks are commonly in Sr-isotopic disequilibrium with groundmass. In some cases the feldspar is more radiogenic, and in others it is less radiogenic. Several explanations have been published previously, but none of these is able to accommodate both senses of disequilibrium. We present a model by which either more- or less-radiogenic feldspar (or even both within a single eruptive unit) can originate. The model requires a magma body open to interaction with biotite- and feldspar-bearing wall rock. Magma is incrementally contaminated as wall rock melts incongruently. Biotite preferentially melts first, followed by feldspar. Such melting behavior, which is supported by both field and experimental studies, first contaminates magma with a relatively radiogenic addition, followed by a less-radiogenic addition. Feldspar phenocrysts lag behind melt (groundmass of volcanic rock) in incorporating the influx of contaminant, thus resulting in Sr-isotopic disequilibrium between the crystals and melt. The sense of disequilibrium recorded in a volcanic rock depends on when eruption quenches the contamination process. This model is testable by isotopic fingerprinting of individual feldspar crystals. For a given set of geologic boundary conditions, specific core-to-rim Sr-isotopic profiles are expectable. Moreover, phenocrysts that nucleate at different times during the contamination process should record different and predictable parts of the history. Initial results of Sr-isotopic fingerprinting of sanidine phenocrysts from the Taylor Creek Rhyolite are consistent with the model. More tests of the model are desirable.Feldspar phenocrysts of silicic volcanic rocks are commonly in Sr-isotopic disequilibrium with groundmass. In some cases the feldspar is more radiogenic, and in others it is less radiogenic. Several explanations have been published previously, but none of these is able to accommodate both senses of disequilibrium. We present a model by which either more- or less-radiogenic feldspar (or even both within a single eruptive unit) can originate. The model requires a magma body open to interaction with biotite- and feldspar-bearing wall rock. Magma is incrementally contaminated as wall rock melts incongruently. Biotite preferentially melts first, followed by feldspar. Such melting behavior, which is supported by both field and experimental studies, first contaminates magma with a relatively radiogenic addition, followed by a less-radiogenic addition. Feldspar phenocrysts lag behind melt (groundmass of volcanic rock) in incorporating the influx of contaminant, thus resulting in Sr-isotopic disequilibrium between the crystals and melt. The sense of disequilibrium recorded in a volcanic rock depends on when eruption quenches the contamination process. This model is testable by isotopic fingerprinting of individual feldspar crystals. For a given set of geologic boundary conditions, specific core-to-rim Sr-isotopic profiles are expectable. Moreover, phenocrysts that nucleate at different times during the contamination process should record different and predictable parts of the history. Initial results of Sr-isotopic fingerprinting of sanidine phenocrysts from the Taylor Creek Rhyolite are consistent with the model. More tests of the model are desirable.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗
USGS2020

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 19 Report)

A primary focus of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and have identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018; Winkler et al. 2018). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate sources of plant species that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. The U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities in FY19 followed an FY19 Statement of Work to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (hereafter referred to as the 5-year plan). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Department of Interior Secretarial Order #3347 (Conservation Stewardship and Outdoor Recreation), and Department of Interior Leadership Priority #1 (Create a conservation stewardship legacy second only to Teddy Roosevelt). Research activities in FY19 centered on landscape genetics, collecting seeds in preparation for experimental common gardens, and planning and trials in support of experimental drought gardens. These activities were supported by three biological technicians, one of which was jointly funded by the Ecological Society of America for six pay periods. Most of the field-related activities, including plant trait measurement, seed/tissue collecting, and GRID (Germination for Restoration Information and Decision-making) experimental treatments at the Canyonlands Research Center near Moab, UT were assigned to these technicians. Contrary to the drought conditions the pervaded the Colorado Plateau in FY18, plentiful spring precipitation resulted in easily-collected plant tissue and seed collections. However, the cool and wet spring delayed the phenology of early blooming species, which caused difficulties for timing seed collecting. Furthermore, seed collecting for late blooming species was difficult because of lower than average monsoon precipitation. While Dr. Rob Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY19, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, and Daniel Winkler, spent a considerable amount of time providing expert guidance and support for individual projects. Work activities performed in support of each 5-year plan goal are discussed in turn.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2005

Are all prey created equal? A review and synthesis of differential predation on prey in substandard condition

Our understanding of predator-prey interactions in fishes has been influenced largely by research assuming that the condition of the participants is normal. However, fish populations today often reside in anthropogenically altered environments and are subjected to many kinds of stressors, which may reduce their ecological performance by adversely affecting their morphology, physiology, or behaviour. One consequence is that either the predator or prey, or both, may be in a substandard condition at the time of an interaction. We reviewed the literature on predator-prey interactions in fishes where substandard prey were used as experimental groups. Although most of this research indicates that such prey are significantly more vulnerable to predation, prey condition has rarely been considered in ecological theory regarding predator-prey interactions. The causal mechanisms for increased vulnerability of substandard prey to predation include a failure to detect predators, lapses in decision-making, poor fast-start performance, inability to shoal effectively, and increased prey conspicuousness. Despite some problems associated with empirical predator-prey studies using substandard prey, their results can have theoretical and applied uses, such as in ecological modelling or justification of corrective measures to be implemented in the wild. There is a need for more corroborative field experimentation, a better understanding of the causal mechanisms behind differential predation, and increased incorporation of prey condition into the research of predator-prey modellers and theoreticians. If the concept of prey condition is considered in predator-prey interactions, our understanding of how such interactions influence the structure and dynamics of fish communities is likely to change, which should prove beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2010

Understanding behavioral responses of fish to pheromones in natural freshwater environments

There is an abundance of experimental studies and reviews that describe odorant-mediated behaviors of fish in laboratory microcosms, but research in natural field conditions has received considerably less attention. Fish pheromone studies in laboratory settings can be highly productive and allow for controlled experimental designs; however, laboratory tanks and flumes often cannot replicate all the physical, physiological and social contexts associated with natural environments. Field experiments can be a critical step in affirming and enhancing understanding of laboratory discoveries and often implicate the ecological significance of pheromones employed by fishes. When findings from laboratory experiments have been further tested in field environments, often different and sometimes contradictory conclusions are found. Examples include studies of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) mating pheromones and fish alarm substances. Here, we review field research conducted on fish pheromones and alarm substances, highlighting the following topics: (1) contradictory results obtained in laboratory and field experiments, (2) how environmental context and physiological status influences behavior, (3) challenges and constraints of aquatic field research and (4) innovative techniques and experimental designs that advance understanding of fish chemical ecology through field research.

Journal of Comparative Physiology A↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Multilevel eEmpirical Bayes modeling for improved estimation of toxicant formulations tosuppress parasitic sea lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes

Estimation of extreme quantal-response statistics, such as the concentration required to kill 99.9% of test subjects (LC99.9), remains a challenge in the presence of multiple covariates and complex study designs. Accurate and precise estimates of the LC99.9 for mixtures of toxicants are critical to ongoing control of a parasitic invasive species, the sea lamprey, in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America. The toxicity of those chemicals is affected by local and temporal variations in water chemistry, which must be incorporated into the modeling. We develop multilevel empirical Bayes models for data from multiple laboratory studies. Our approach yields more accurate and precise estimation of the LC99.9 compared to alternative models considered. This study demonstrates that properly incorporating hierarchical structure in laboratory data yields better estimates of LC99.9 stream treatment values that are critical to larvae control in the field. In addition, out-of-sample prediction of the results of in situ tests reveals the presence of a latent seasonal effect not manifest in the laboratory studies, suggesting avenues for future study and illustrating the importance of dual consideration of both experimental and observational data.

Illinois;Indiana;Michigan;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2001

pH dependence of iron photoreduction in a rocky mountain stream affected by acid mine drainage

The redox speciation of dissolved iron and the transport of iron in acidic, metal‐enriched streams is controlled by precipitation and dissolution of iron hydroxides, by photoreduction of dissolved ferric iron and hydrous iron oxides, and by oxidation of the resulting dissolved ferrous iron. We examined the pH dependence of these processes in an acidic mine‐drainage stream, St Kevin Gulch, Colorado, by experimentally increasing the pH of the stream from about 4·0 to 6·5 and following the downstream changes in iron species. We used a solute transport model with variable flow to evaluate biogeochemical processes controlling downstream transport. We found that at pH 6·4 there was a rapid and large initial loss of ferrous iron concurrent with the precipitation of aluminium hydroxide. Below this reach, ferrous iron was conservative during the morning but there was a net downstream loss of ferrous iron around noon and in the afternoon. Calculation of net oxidation rates shows that the noontime loss rate was generally much faster than rates for the ferrous iron oxidation at pH 6 predicted by Singer and Stumm (1970. Science 167 : 1121). The maintenance of ferrous iron concentrations in the morning is explained by the photoreduction of photoreactive ferric species, which are then depleted by noon.

Hydrological Processes↗