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Virtual Beach 3: user's guide

Virtual Beach version 3 (VB 3 ) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations at recreational beaches. VB 3 is primarily designed for beach managers responsible for making decisions regarding beach closures or the issuance of swimming advisories due to pathogen contamination. However, researchers, scientists, engineers, and students interested in studying relationships between water quality indicators and ambient environmental conditions will find VB 3 useful. VB 3 reads input data from a text file or Excel document, assists the user in preparing the data for analysis, enables automated model selection using a wide array of possible model evaluation criteria, and provides predictions using a chosen model parameterized with new data. With an integrated mapping component to determine the geographic orientation of the beach, the software can automatically decompose wind/current/wave speed and magnitude information into along-shore and onshore/offshore components for use in subsequent analyses. Data can be examined using simple scatter plots to evaluate relationships between the response and independent variables (IVs). VB 3 can produce interaction terms between the primary IVs, and it can also test an array of transformations to maximize the linearity of the relationship The software includes search routines for finding the "best" models from an array of possible choices. Automated censoring of statistical models with highly correlated IVs occurs during the selection process. Models can be constructed either using previously collected data or forecasted environmental information. VB 3 has residual diagnostics for regression models, including automated outlier identification and removal using DFFITs or Cook's Distances.

Report↗

Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for Level 3 and 4 PSHAs - Experience gained from actual applications

In April 1997, after four years of deliberations, the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee released its report 'Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts' through the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as NUREG/CR-6372, hereafter SSHAC (1997). Known informally ever since as the 'SSHAC Guidelines', SSHAC (1997) addresses why and how multiple expert opinions - and the intrinsic uncertainties that attend them - should be used in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA) for critical facilities such as commercial nuclear power plants. Ten years later, in September 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) entered into a 13-month agreement with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) titled 'Practical Procedures for Implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines and for Updating PSHAs'. The NRC was interested in understanding and documenting lessons learned from recent PSHAs conducted at the higher SSHAC Levels (3 and 4) and in gaining input from the seismic community for updating PSHAs as new information became available. This study increased in importance in anticipation of new applications for nuclear power facilities at both existing and new sites. The intent of this project was not to replace the SSHAC Guidelines but to supplement them with the experience gained from putting the SSHAC Guidelines to work in practical applications. During the course of this project, we also learned that updating PSHAs for existing nuclear power facilities involves very different issues from the implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines for new facilities. As such, we report our findings and recommendations from this study in two separate documents, this being the first. The SSHAC Guidelines were written without regard to whether the PSHAs to which they would be applied were site-specific or regional in scope. Most of the experience gained to date from high-level SSHAC studies has been for site-specific cases, although three ongoing (as of this writing) studies are regional in scope. Updating existing PSHAs will depend more critically on the differences between site-specific and regional studies, and we will also address these differences in more detail in the companion report. Most of what we report here and in the second report on updating PSHAs emanates from three workshops held by the USGS at their Menlo Park facility: 'Lessons Learned from SSHAC Level 3 and 4 PSHAs' on January 30-31, 2008; 'Updates to Existing PSHAs' on May 6-7, 2008; and 'Draft Recommendations, SSHAC Implementation Guidance' on June 4-5, 2009. These workshops were attended by approximately 40 scientists and engineers familiar with hazard studies for nuclear facilities. This company included four of the authors of SSHAC (1997) and four other experts whose contributions to this document are mentioned in the Acknowledgments section; numerous scientists and engineers who in one role or another have participated in one or more high-level SSHAC PSHAs summarized later in this report; and representatives of the nuclear industry, the consulting world, the regulatory community, and academia with a keen interest and expertise in hazard analysis. This report is a community-based set of recommendations to NRC for improved practical procedures for implementation of the SSHAC Guidelines. In an early publication specifically addressing the SSHAC Guidelines, Hanks (1997) noted that the SSHAC Guidelines were likely to evolve for some time to come, and this remains true today. While the broad philosophical and theoretical dimensions of the SSHAC Guidelines will not change, much has been learned during the past decade from various applications of the SSHAC Guidelines to real PSHAs in terms of how they are implemented. We anticipate that, in their practical applications, the SSHAC Guidelines will continue to evolve as more experience is gained from future SSHAC applications. Indeed, to the extent that every PSHA has its

Open-File Report↗

Comparing shear-wave velocity profiles inverted from multichannel surface wave with borehole measurements

Recent field tests illustrate the accuracy and consistency of calculating near-surface shear (S)-wave velocities using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW). S-wave velocity profiles (S-wave velocity vs. depth) derived from MASW compared favorably to direct borehole measurements at sites in Kansas, British Columbia, and Wyoming. Effects of changing the total number of recording channels, sampling interval, source offset, and receiver spacing on the inverted S-wave velocity were studied at a test site in Lawrence, Kansas. On the average, the difference between MASW calculated Vs and borehole measured Vs in eight wells along the Fraser River in Vancouver, Canada was less than 15%. One of the eight wells was a blind test well with the calculated overall difference between MASW and borehole measurements less than 9%. No systematic differences were observed in derived Vs values from any of the eight test sites. Surface wave analysis performed on surface data from Wyoming provided S-wave velocities in near-surface materials. Velocity profiles from MASW were confirmed by measurements based on suspension log analysis. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering↗

Regional skew for California, and flood frequency for selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, based on data through water year 2006

Improved flood-frequency information is important throughout California in general and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin in particular, because of an extensive network of flood-control levees and the risk of catastrophic flooding. A key first step in updating flood-frequency information is determining regional skew. A Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression method was used to derive a regional-skew model based on annual peak-discharge data for 158 long-term (30 or more years of record) stations throughout most of California. The desert areas in southeastern California had too few long-term stations to reliably determine regional skew for that hydrologically distinct region; therefore, the desert areas were excluded from the regional skew analysis for California. Of the 158 long-term stations used to determine regional skew, 145 have minimally regulated annual-peak discharges, and 13 stations are dam sites for which unregulated peak discharges were estimated from unregulated daily maximum discharge data furnished by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. The Bayesian GLS regression method previously developed was modified because of the large cross correlations among concurrent recorded peak discharges in California and the use of censored data and historical flood information with the new expected moments algorithm. In particular, to properly account for these cross-correlation problems and develop a suitable regression model and regression diagnostics, a combination of Bayesian weighted least squares and generalized least squares regression was adopted. This new methodology identified a nonlinear function relating regional skew to mean basin elevation. The regional skew values ranged from -0.62 for a mean basin elevation of zero to 0.61 for a mean basin elevation of 11,000 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow with rain, which increases with increased elevation. The equivalent record length for the new regional skew ranges from 52 to 65 years of record, depending upon mean basin elevation. The old regional skew map in Bulletin 17B, published by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982), reported an equivalent record length of only 17 years. The newly developed regional skew relation for California was used to update flood frequency for the 158 sites used in the regional skew analysis as well as 206 selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin. For these sites, annual-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years were determined on the basis of data through water year 2006. The expected moments algorithm was used for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods at gaged sites by using regional skew values and using the basic approach outlined in Bulletin

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Particle size distribution of main-channel-bed sediments along the upper Mississippi River, USA

In this study, we compared pre-lock-and-dam (ca. 1925) with a modern longitudinal survey of main-channel-bed sediments along a 740-km segment of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) between Davenport, IA, and Cairo, IL. This comparison was undertaken to gain a better understanding of how bed sediments are distributed longitudinally and to assess change since the completion of the UMR lock and dam navigation system and Missouri River dams (i.e., mid-twentieth century). The comparison of the historic and modern longitudinal bed sediment surveys showed similar bed sediment sizes and distributions along the study segment with the majority (> 90%) of bed sediment samples having a median diameter ( D 50 ) of fine to coarse sand. The fine tail (≤ D 10 ) of the sediment size distributions was very fine to medium sand, and the coarse tail (≥ D 90 ) of sediment-size distribution was coarse sand to gravel. Coarsest sediments in both surveys were found within or immediately downstream of bedrock-floored reaches. Statistical analysis revealed that the particle-size distributions between the survey samples were statistically identical, suggesting no overall difference in main-channel-bed sediment-size distribution between 1925 and present. This was a surprising result given the magnitude of river engineering undertaken along the study segment over the past ~ 90 years. The absence of substantial differences in main-channel-bed-sediment size suggests that flow competencies within the highly engineered navigation channel today are similar to conditions within the less-engineered historic channel.

Upper Mississippi River↗

Piezometer performance at Wildlife liquefaction site, California

In response to an urgent need for field data from instrumented liquefaction sites, the U.S. Geological Survey in 1982 selected and instrumented a site in southern California called the Wildlife site. Two accelerometers (one at ground surface and one at a depth of 7.5 m) and six electrical pore‐pressure transducers (five in a liquefiable silty sand layer) were placed at the site. The November 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake triggered sand boils and the desired instrumental response by generating excess pore‐water pressure that approximately equaled the initial effective overburden pressure. These records are the first from a field site to trace ground motions and pore pressures through the entire liquefaction process. Because pore pressure continued to rise after most of the seismic energy had propagated through the site, questions about the fidelity of the pore‐pressure records have been raised. Because of the importance of the Wildlife records, we reexamine pertinent aspects of the instruments and their placement, review their 1987 response, evaluate and respond to criticisms by Hushmand et al. (1992a, 1992b), and examine analyses of the records by other investigators that are pertinent to an evaluation of the fidelity of the piezometer records. This review concludes that no data or analyses have been developed that convincingly demonstrate that the pore‐pressure piezometers responded incorrectly. Conversely, an analysis by Zeghal and Elgamal (1994) provides strong evidence that the piezometers responded with a high degree of fidelity.

California↗

Well-Production Data and Gas-Reservoir Heterogeneity -- Reserve Growth Applications

Oil and gas well production parameters, including peakmonthly production (PMP), peak-consecutive-twelve month production (PYP), and cumulative production (CP), are tested as tools to quantify and understand the heterogeneity of reservoirs in fields where current monthly production is 10 percent or less of PMP. Variation coefficients, defined as VC= (F5-F95)/F50, where F5, F95, and F50 are the 5th, 95th, and 50th (median) fractiles of a probability distribution, are calculated for peak and cumulative production and examined with respect to internal consistency, type of production parameter, conventional versus unconventional accumulations, and reservoir depth. Well-production data for this study were compiled for 69 oil and gas fields in the Lower Pennsylvanian Morrow Formation of the Anadarko Basin, Oklahoma. Of these, 47 fields represent production from marine clastic facies. The Morrow data were supplemented by data from the Upper Cambrian and Lower Ordovician Arbuckle Group, Middle Ordovician Simpson Group, Middle Pennsylvanian Atoka Formation, and Silurian and Lower Devonian Hunton Group of the Anadarko Basin, one large gas field in Upper Cretaceous reservoirs of north-central Montana (Bowdoin field), and three areas of the Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Bakken Formation continuous-type (unconventional) oil accumulation in the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. Production parameters (PMP, PYP, and CP) measure the net result of complex geologic, engineering, and economic processes. Our fundamental hypothesis is that well-production data provide information about subsurface heterogeneity in older fields that would be impossible to obtain using geologic techniques with smaller measurement scales such as petrographic, core, and well-log analysis. Results such as these indicate that quantitative measures of production rates and production volumes of wells, expressed as dimensionless variation coefficients, are potentially valuable tools for documenting reservoir heterogeneity in older fields for field redevelopment and risk analysis.

Bulletin↗

Economics of utilization of high sulfur coal resources - an integrated market approach

Before the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, coal policies - especially coal research policies - were geared to find a solution to the sulfur emission problem. However, technologies to reduce sulfur emissions cannot be tailored for a single coal. A technology that will clean Illinois coal to compliance levels will do the same, or nearly the same, for most other types of coal. This paper will discuss an integrated approach to the analysis of the future of coals from different regions in the United States and its implications for coal-related policies by government and industry.

Mining Engineering↗

Statistical characteristics of storm interevent time, depth, and duration for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas

The design of small runoff-control structures, from simple floodwater-detention basins to sophisticated best-management practices, requires the statistical characterization of rainfall as a basis for cost-effective, risk-mitigated, hydrologic engineering design. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a framework to estimate storm statistics including storm interevent times, distributions of storm depths, and distributions of storm durations for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The analysis is based on hourly rainfall recorded by the National Weather Service. The database contains more than 155 million hourly values from 774 stations in the study area. Seven sets of maps depicting ranges of mean storm interevent time, mean storm depth, and mean storm duration, by county, as well as tables listing each of those statistics, by county, were developed. The mean storm interevent time is used in probabilistic models to assess the frequency distribution of storms. The Poisson distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm occurrence, and the exponential distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm interevent times. The four-parameter kappa distribution is judged as an appropriate distribution for modeling the distribution of both storm depth and storm duration. Preference for the kappa distribution is based on interpretation of L-moment diagrams. Parameter estimates for the kappa distributions are provided. Separate dimensionless frequency curves for storm depth and duration are defined for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Dimension is restored by multiplying curve ordinates by the mean storm depth or mean storm duration to produce quantile functions of storm depth and duration. Minimum interevent time and location have slight influence on the scale and shape of the dimensionless frequency curves. Ten example problems and solutions to possible applications are provided.

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

Relaxation response of critically stressed macroscale surficial rock sheets

Rock environments both underground and on Earth’s surface show indications of energetic macroscale fracture. In tunnels and excavations, these manifest as rockbursts—energetic explosions of rock that can damage engineering projects, and may pose ongoing financial and safety risk as rock stresses adjust during post-failure relaxation. In natural settings at the surface, evidence for rockbursts exist in the form of tent-like structures of ruptured exfoliation sheets, but few direct observations of such events exist, precluding the analysis of how natural rock formations may evolve after rupture. Here we investigate the post-failure evolution of a granitic rock dome following rapid fracture events (i.e., surficial rockbursts) that occurred in California, USA during 2014–2016. Building upon previous work that showed a thermal stress origin for the observed fracturing, we investigate the return to background stress conditions (i.e., stress relaxation) observed in both short- (week, month) and long-term (multi-year) rock deformation trends. Acoustic emissions, deformation, and environmental monitoring data indicate that partially detached rock sheets forming the surface of the dome undergo fracture aperture closing during cooling periods, concurrent with reduction of rock stress by the source of forcing (i.e., thermal stress). However, with sufficient critical and/or subcritical fracture, our observations also show that rock sheets can become decoupled from the source of stress, resulting in a long-term return to background stress conditions. Our results provide insight into the cyclic and likely ephemeral nature of rock fracture in surficial rock domes, as well as in underground rockburst environments.

Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering↗

USGS remote sensing coordination for the 2010 Haiti earthquake

In response to the devastating 12 January 2010, earthquake in Haiti, the US Geological Survey (USGS) provided essential coordinating services for remote sensing activities. Communication was rapidly established between the widely distributed response teams and data providers to define imaging requirements and sensor tasking opportunities. Data acquired from a variety of sources were received and archived by the USGS, and these products were subsequently distributed using the Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) and other mechanisms. Within six weeks after the earthquake, over 600,000 files representing 54 terabytes of data were provided to the response community. The USGS directly supported a wide variety of groups in their use of these data to characterize post-earthquake conditions and to make comparisons with pre-event imagery. The rapid and continuing response achieved was enabled by existing imaging and ground systems, and skilled personnel adept in all aspects of satellite data acquisition, processing, distribution and analysis. The information derived from image interpretation assisted senior planners and on-site teams to direct assistance where it was most needed.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Evaluation of long-term gas hydrate production testing locations on the Alaska North Slope

The results of short-duration formation tests in northern Alaska and Canada have further documented the energy-resource potential of gas hydrates and have justified the need for long-term gas-hydrate-production testing. Additional data acquisition and long-term production testing could improve the understanding of the response of naturally occurring gas hydrate to depressurization-induced or thermal-, chemical-, or mechanical-stimulated dissociation of gas hydrate into producible gas. The Eileen gashydrate accumulation located in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area in northern Alaska has become a focal point for gas-hydrate geologic and production studies. BP Exploration (Alaska) Incorporated and ConocoPhillips have each established research partnerships with the US Department of Energy to assess the production potential of gas hydrates in northern Alaska. A critical goal of these efforts is to identify the most suitable site for production testing. A total of seven potential locations in the Prudhoe Bay, Kuparuk River, and Milne Point production units were identified and assessed relative to their suitability as a long-term gas-hydrate-production test sites. The test-site-assessment criteria included the analysis of the geologic risk associated with encountering reservoirs for gas-hydrate testing. The site-selection process also dealt with the assessment of the operational/logistical risk associated with each of the potential test sites. From this review, a site in the Prudhoe Bay production unit was determined to be the best location for extended gas-hydrate-production testing. The work presented in this report identifies the key features of the potential test site in the Greater Prudhoe Bay area and provides new information on the nature of gas-hydrate occurrence and the potential impact of production testing on existing infrastructure at the most favorable sites. These data were obtained from well-log analysis, geological correlation and mapping, and numerical simulation.

Alaska↗

US GeoData

US GeoData tapes are computer tapes which contain cartographic data in digital form. The 1:2,000,000-scale data are available in two forms. The graphic form can be used to generate computer-plotted maps. The content and scale of the maps can be varied to meet your needs. The topologically-structured form of US GeoData is suitable for input to geographic information systems for use in spatial analysis and geographic studies. Both forms must be used in conjunction with appropriate software. US GeoData tapes offer convenience, accuracy, flexibility, and cost effectiveness to many map users. Business, industry, and government users who are involved in network planning and analysis, transportation, demography, land use, or any activity where data can be related to, or plotted on a map will find US GeoData a valuable resource.

General Information Product↗

Tree islands of the Florida Everglades - A disappearing resource

Until recently, the timing and cause of tree island formation have been poorly understood, with estimates of initial tree-island development as early as thousands of years ago to as recently as the last few decades. To increase our knowledge about the origins of these features, sediment cores were collected on and around tree islands. These cores were dated using radioisotopic techniques, including carbon-14 dating, which provides reliable dates from ~40,000 to ~300 years ago, and lead-210 dating, which provides age models for the last century. These age models were paired with vegetational reconstruction based on pollen analysis from cores to identify the timing of tree-island formation and assess past tree-island response to hydrologic changes in the 20th century.

Florida↗

Site characterization of Italian strong motion recording stations

A dataset of site conditions at 101 Italian ground motion stations with recorded motions has been compiled that includes geologic characteristics and seismic velocities. Geologic characterization is derived principally from local geologic investigations by ENEL that include detailed mapping and cross sections. For sites lacking such detailed geologic characterization, the geology maps of the by Servizio Geologico d'Italia are used. Seismic velocities are extracted from the literature and the files of consulting engineers, geologists and public agencies for 33 sites. Data sources utilized include post earthquake site investigations (Friuli and Irpinia events), microzonation studies, and miscellaneous investigations performed by researchers or consulting engineers/geologists. Additional seismic velocities are measured by the authors using the controlled source spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method for 18 sites that recorded the 1997–1998 Umbria Marche earthquake sequence. The compiled velocity measurements provide data for 51 of the 101 sites. For the remaining sites, the average seismic velocity in the upper 30 m (V s30 ) "> (V s30 ) is estimated using a hybrid approach. For young Quaternary alluvium, V s30 "> 𝑉 s30 an existing empirical relationship for California sites by Wills and Clahan (2006) is used, which we justify by validating this relationship against Italian data. For Tertiary Limestone and Italian Mesozoic rocks, empirical estimates of V s30 "> 𝑉 s30 are developed using the available data.

Conference Paper↗

Analysis of the Interstate 10 Twin Bridge’s collapse during Hurricane Katrina: Chapter 3D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

The Interstate 10 Twin Span Bridge over Lake Pontchartrain north of New Orleans, La., was rendered completely unusable by Hurricane Katrina. The cause of the collapse of the bridges generated great interest among hydrologists and structural engineers as well as among the general public. What made this case study even more important was the fact that two nearby bridges sustained the effects of the same storm surge and suffered only light damage. Lessons learned from this investigation are invaluable to maintaining the safety of many of the Nation's coastal and river-crossing bridges.

Louisiana↗

Analysis of survival data from telemetry projects

Telemetry techniques can be used to study the survival rates of animal populations and are particularly suitable for species or settings for which band recovery models are not. Statistical methods for estimating survival rates and parameters of survival distributions from observations of radio-tagged animals will be described. These methods have been applied to medical and engineering studies and to the study of nest success. Estimates and tests based on discrete models, originally introduced by Mayfield, and on continuous models, both parametric and nonparametric, will be described. Generalizations, including staggered entry of subjects into the study and identification of mortality factors will be considered. Additional discussion topics will include sample size considerations, relocation frequency for subjects, and use of covariates.

Book chapter↗

Application of acoustic doppler velocimeters for streamflow measurements

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) principally has used Price AA and Price pygmy mechanical current meters for measurement of discharge. New technologies have resulted in the introduction of alternatives to the Price meters. One alternative, the FlowTracker acoustic Doppler velocimeter, was designed by SonTek/YSI to make streamflow measurements in wadeable conditions. The device measures a point velocity and can be used with standard midsection method algorithms to compute streamflow. The USGS collected 55 quality-assurance measurements with the FlowTracker at 43 different USGS streamflow-gaging stations across the United States, with mean depths from 0.05to0.67m, mean velocities from 13 to 60 cm/s, and discharges from 0.02 to 12.4m3/s. These measurements were compared with Price mechanical current meter measurements. Analysis of the comparisons shows that the FlowTracker discharges were not statistically different from the Price meter discharges at a 95% confidence level. ?? 2007 ASCE.

Journal of Hydraulic Engineering↗