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At least 595 records · Page 33Linked to original sources

Influence of basin- and local-scale environmental conditions on nearshore production in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Nearshore marine habitats are productive and vulnerable owing to their connections to pelagic and terrestrial landscapes. To understand how ocean basin- and local-scale conditions may influence nearshore species, we developed an annual index of nearshore production (spanning the period 1972–2010) from growth increments recorded in otoliths of representative pelagic-feeding (Black Rockfish Sebastes melanops ) and benthic-feeding (Kelp Greenling Hexagrammos decagrammus ) nearshore-resident fishes at nine sites in the California Current and Alaska Coastal Current systems. We explored the influence of basin- and local-scale conditions across all seasons at lags of up to 2 years to represent changes in prey quantity (1- or 2-year time lags) and quality (within-year relationships). Relationships linking fish growth to basin-scale (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation index) and local-scale (sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomalies, upwelling index, photosynthetically active radiation, and freshwater discharge) environmental conditions varied by species and current system. Growth of Black Rockfish increased with cool basin-scale conditions in the California Current and warm local-scale conditions in the Alaska Coastal Current, consistent with existing hypotheses linking climate to pelagic production on continental shelves in the respective regions. Relationships for Kelp Greenlings in the California Current were complex, with faster growth related to within-year warm conditions and lagged-year cool conditions. These opposing, lag-dependent relationships may reflect differences in conditions that promote quantity versus quality of benthic invertebrate prey in the California Current. Thus, we hypothesize that benthic production is maximized by alternating cool and warm years, as benthic invertebrate recruitment is food limited during warm years while growth is temperature limited by cool years in the California Current. On the other hand, Kelp Greenlings grew faster during and subsequent to warm conditions at basin and local scales in the Alaska Coastal Current.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

Structure, diversity, and biophysical properties of old-growth forestsin the Klamath region, USA

The diverse old-growth forests in Klamath region of northern California and southern Oregon provide valuable ecosystem services (e.g., maintaining watersheds, wildlife habitat, recreation), but may be vulnerable to a wide range of stressors, including invasive species, disrupted disturbance regimes, and climatic change. Yet our understanding of how forest structure in the Klamath region relates to the current physical environment is limited. Here we provide present-day benchmarks for old-growth forest structure across a climatic gradient ranging from coastal to dry interior sites. We established 16 large (1 ha) forest plots where all stems > 5 cm in diameter were identified to species and mapped. Climate across these sites was highly variable, with estimated actual evapotranspiration correlated to several basic measures of forest structure, including plot basal area, stem size-class inequality, tree species diversity and, to a lesser extent, tree species richness. Analyses of the spatial arrangement of stems indicated a high degree of non-uniformity, with 75% of plots showing significant stem clumping at small spatial scales (0 to 10 m). Downscaled predictions of future site water balance suggest changes will be dominated by rapidly increasing climatic water deficit (D, a biologically meaningful index of drought). While these plots give a picture of current conditions, continued monitoring of these stands is needed to describe forest dynamics and to detect forest responses to ongoing and future stressors.

Klamath region↗

Estimating ecosystem carbon stocks at Redwood National and State Parks

Accounting for ecosystem carbon is increasingly important for park managers. In this case study we present our efforts to estimate carbon stocks and the effects of management on carbon stocks for Redwood National and State Parks in northern California. Using currently available information, we estimate that on average these parks’ soils contain approximately 89 tons of carbon per acre (200 Mg C per ha), while vegetation contains about 130 tons C per acre (300 Mg C per ha). estoration activities at the parks (logging-road removal, second-growth forest management) were shown to initially reduce ecosystem carbon, but may provide for enhanced ecosystem carbon storage over the long term. We highlight currently available tools that could be used to estimate ecosystem carbon at other units of the National Park System.

California↗

Flood-inundation maps for the Pawtuxet River in West Warwick, Warwick, and Cranston, Rhode Island

A series of 15 digital flood-inundation maps was developed for a 10.2-mile reach of the Pawtuxet River in the municipalities of West Warwick, Warwick, and Cranston, Rhode Island, by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The coverage of the maps extends downstream from Natick Pond dam near State Route 33/Providence Street bridge in West Warwick to the mouth of the river at Pawtuxet Cove (Broad Street bridge) on the border between Cranston and Warwick, R.I. A one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model created and calibrated for the Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood Insurance Studies for Kent and Providence Counties in 2015 was updated for this study. The updated hydraulic model reflects the removal of the Pawtuxet Falls dam during 2011 and the raised elevation of a levee surrounding the Warwick Sewer Authority wastewater treatment facility during 2014–17. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current (2018) stage-discharge relation at the USGS Pawtuxet River at Cranston, Rhode Island, streamgage (01116500) and documented high-water marks from the March 31, 2010, flood, which had a peak flow greater than the estimated 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floodflow. The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for 15 flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the USGS Pawtuxet River at Cranston, Rhode Island, streamgage (01116500) and ranging from 8.0 ft (15.2 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988), which is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood category “action stage,” to 22.0 ft (29.2 ft, North American Vertical Datum of 1988), which is the maximum stage of the stage-discharge relation at the streamgage and exceeds the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flood category “major flood stage” of 13.0 ft. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a 1.0-ft vertical accuracy to create flood-inundation maps. The flood-inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to 15 selected flood stages at the streamgage. The flood-inundation maps depict only riverine flooding and do not depict any tidal backwater or coastal storm surge that might occur in the lower part of the river reach. The flood-inundation maps can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation . Near-real-time stages and discharges at the Pawtuxet River streamgage can be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ . The National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service provides flood forecasts of stage for this site (CRAR1) at https:/water.weather.gov/ahps/ . The availability of flood-inundation maps referenced to current and forecasted water levels at the USGS Pawtuxet River at Cranston, Rhode Island, streamgage (01116500) can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during flood events.

Rhode Island↗

Changes in suspended sediment concentration along tidal rivers of the Chesapeake Bay: The tidal freshwater “sediment shadow”

Transport of terrigenic sediment from nontidal watersheds into estuaries has important impacts on coastal habitat quality, pollutant transport, and resilience to sea-level rise. However, relatively little is known about changes in suspended sediment as nontidal rivers encounter tide, transition into tidal rivers through the tidal freshwater zone (TFZ), and enter saline portions of estuaries. The goal of this paper is to identify spatial and temporal patterns in suspended sediment concentration (SS) changes across tidal and salinity gradients over multiple tidal rivers, using a robust monitoring long-term dataset from the Chesapeake Bay. The multiple TFZs in the Chesapeake Bay consistently have a “sediment shadow” shown by a local spatial minimum in SS compared to upstream nontidal and downgradient oligohaline river reaches. Similarly, freshwater inputs from nontidal rivers have diminishing influence on tidal SS temporal dynamics with distance downstream from the head-of-tide. Therefore, little of the contemporary watershed sediment load is likely transported past the TFZ except during extreme floods when some sediment may be delivered to saline portions of the estuary. Tidal freshwater and brackish portions of the estuary have spatially variable trends in SS over time, both increases and decreases. However, the more saline downstream ends of tidal rivers and the mainstem of the Chesapeake Bay have had a consistent average 25% decline in SS over the past decades. In summary, the presence of “sediment shadows” suggests watershed loads of sediment are currently mostly not transported through the TFZ into the saline estuary, and likely generate sediment deficits for tidal freshwater wetlands.

Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania↗

Diagenetic fate of organic contaminants on the Palos Verdes Shelf, California

Municipal wastes discharged through deepwater submarine outfalls since 1937 have contaminated sediments of the Palos Verdes Shelf. A site approximately 6–8 km downcurrent from the outfall system was chosen for a study of the diagenetic fate of organic contaminants in the waste-impacted sediments. Concentrations of three classes of hydrophobic organic contaminants (DDT+metabolites, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and the long-chain alkylbenzenes) were determined in sediment cores collected at the study site in 1981 and 1992. Differences between the composition of effluent from the major source of DDT (Montrose Chemical) and that found in sediments suggests that parent DDT was transformed by hydrolytic dehydrochlorination during the earliest stages of diagenesis. As a result, p , p ′-DDE is the dominant DDT metabolite found in shelf sediments, comprising 60–70% of ΣDDT. The p , p -DDE/ p , p ′-DDMU concentration ratio decreases with increasing sub-bottom depth in sediment cores, indicating that reductive dechlorination of p , p ′-DDE is occurring. Approximately 9–23% of the DDE inventory in the sediments may have been converted to DDMU since DDT discharges began ca. 1953. At most, this is less than half of the decline in p , p ′-DDE inventory that has been observed at the study site for the period 1981–1995. Most of the observed decrease is attributable to remobilization by processes such as sediment mixing coupled to resuspension, contaminant desorption, and current advection. Existing field data suggest that the in situ rate of DDE transformation is 10 2 –10 3 times slower than rates determined in recent laboratory microcosm experiments (Quensen, J.F., Mueller, S.A., Jain, M.K., Tiedje, J.M., 1998. Reductive dechlorination of DDE to DDMU in marine sediment microcosms. Science, 280, 722–724.). This explains why the DDT composition (i.e. o , p ′-, p , p ′-isomers of DDE, DDD, DDT) of sediments from this site have not changed significantly since at least 1972. Congener-specific PCB compositions in shelf sediments are highly uniform and show no evidence of diagenetic transformation. Apparently, the agents/factors responsible for reductive dechlorination of DDE are not also effecting alteration of the PCBs. Two types of long-chain alkylbenzenes were found in the contaminated sediments. Comparison of chain length and isomer distributions of the linear alkylbenzenes in wastewater effluent and surficial sediment samples indicate that these compounds undergo biodegradation during sedimentation. Further degradation of the linear alkylbenzenes occurs after burial despite relatively invariant isomer compositions. The branched alkylbenzenes are much more persistent than the linear alkylbenzenes, presumably due to extensive branching of the alkyl side chain. Based on these results, p , p ′-DDE, PCBs, and selected branched alkylbenzenes are sufficiently persistent for use in molecular stratigraphy. The linear alkylbenzenes may also provide information on depositional processes. However, their application as quantitative molecular tracers should be approached with caution.

California↗

Risk analysis for biological hazards: What we need to know about invasive species

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the “potential” distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Risk Analysis↗

Turbidity-current channels in Queen Inlet, Glacier Bay, Alaska

Queen Inlet is unique among Glacier Bay fjords because it alone has a branching channel system incised in the Holocene sediment fill of the fjord floor. Bathymetry and seismic-reflection profiles show that four channels begin on, or at the base of, the delta front of this marine-outwash fjord. By midpoint of the fjord, these channels have merged into one main channel that extends the length of the fjord. The main channel cuts deeply into the scarp that separates this hanging tributary from the West Arm of Glacier Bay. The Queen Inlet channel ends on the main fjord floor as several small distributaries that form part of a lobate-fan deposit. Sand from the channel and lobate fan, in contrast to fjord-floor mud, plus steep truncated channel walls indicate that turbidity currents created this apparently active channel system. Queen Inlet and other known channel-containing fjords are marine-outwash fjords; the tidewater glacial fjords do not have steep delta fronts on which slides are generated and may not have a sufficient reservoir of potentially unstable coarse sediment to generate channel-cutting turbidity currents. Presence or absence of channels, as revealed in the ancient rock record, may be one criterion for interpreting types of fjords.

Alaska↗

Uncertainty and instream flow standards

Several years ago, Science published an important essay (Ludwig et al. 1993) on the need to confront the scientific uncertainty associated with managing natural resources. The essay did not discuss instream flow standards explicitly, but its arguments apply. At an April 1995 workshop in Davis, California, all 12 participants agreed that currently no scientifically defensible method exists for defining the instream flows needed to protect particular species of fish or aquatic ecosystems (Williams, in press). We also agreed that acknowledging this fact is an essential step in dealing rationally and effectively with the problem. Practical necessity and the protection of fishery resources require that new instream flow standards be established and that existing standards be revised. However, if standards cannot be defined scientifically, how can this be done? We join others in recommending the approach of adaptive management. Applied to instream flow standards, this approach involves at least three elements.

Fisheries↗

Distribution and conservation status of coastal sage scrub in southwestern California

A landscape-based characterization of vegetation has been developed for southwestern California using satellite imagery, air photos, existing vegetation maps, and field data. Distribution maps of nine dominant coastal scrub species and 13 species assemblages that were identified by divisive information analysis have been analyzed to quantify spatial patterns of species co-occurrence. Three general distribution patterns are identified that suggest the Diegan, Ventaran and Riversidian Associations identified by other workers. Vegetation data have also been related to land ownership and management to assess the conservation status of upland plant communities. A large proportion of the mapped distribution of species and vegetation types is on private land, and several taxa show less than 4 % of mapped distribution in nature reserves. The analysis highlights the need to extend current conservation planning efforts into the northern part of the region to encompass areas where Salvia leucophylla is a frequent community dominant.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Water Resources Research October 1, 1979 - September 30, 1980: Summary statements of research activities by the Water Resources Division

Research in the WRD had its beginnings in the late 1950's when the "core research" line item was added to the Congressional budget. Since this time the Federal program has grown from a "basic sciences" program to one that includes a broad spectrum of basic and applied scientific investigations. Water resources research in WRD includes the study of water in all its phases and uses the basic sciences of mathematics, chemistry, physics, biology, geology and engineering to gain a fundamental understanding of the processes that affect the movement of water and its chemical constituents through hydrologic systems. The basic knowledge and methodologies derived from water resources research are applicable not only to the solution of current problems associated with the Nation's water resources, but also to anticipated hydrologic issues.

Report↗

Science plan for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the San Francisco Bay region, 2019–24

This five-year science plan outlines short-term and long-term goals for improving three-dimensional seismic velocity models in the greater San Francisco Bay region as well as how to foster a community effort in reaching those goals. The short-term goals focus on improving the current U.S. Geological Survey San Francisco Bay region geologic and seismic velocity model using existing data. The long-term goals focus on acquiring new data and leveraging better analytic tools to improve the model and characterize the uncertainty. The plan describes opportunities for contributions by members of the community to develop these seismic velocity models, provides current and potential users with general information on where efforts will likely be focused to improve these models and how new versions of the models will be released, and outlines funding needs and obstacles for improving and maintaining such models. Several aspects of this plan, including how to foster a community effort, are independent of the geographic region and apply to other similar efforts.

California↗

Flood-inundation maps for Peachtree Creek from the Norfolk Southern Railway bridge to the Moores Mill Road NW bridge, Atlanta, Georgia

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 5.5-mile reach of the Peachtree Creek from the Norfolk Southern Railway bridge to the Moores Mill Road NW bridge, were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Atlanta, Georgia. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Peachtree Creek at Atlanta, Georgia (02336300) and the USGS streamgage at Chattahoochee River at Georgia 280, near Atlanta, Georgia (02336490). Current water level (stage) at these USGS streamgages may be obtained at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ and can be used in conjunction with these maps to estimate near real-time areas of inundation. The National Weather Service (NWS) is incorporating results from this study into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that commonly are collocated at USGS streamgages. The forecasted peak-stage information for the USGS streamgage at Peachtree Creek, which is available through the AHPS Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. A one-dimensional step-backwater model was developed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC–RAS software for a 6.5-mile reach of Peachtree Creek and was used to compute flood profiles for a 5.5-mile reach of the creek. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Peachtree Creek at Atlanta, Georgia, streamgage (02336300), and the Chattahoochee River at Georgia 280, near Atlanta, Georgia, streamgage (02336490) as well as high water marks collected during the 2010 annual peak flow event. The hydraulic model was then used to determine 50 water-surface profiles. The profiles are for 10 flood stages at the Peachtree Creek streamgage at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from just above bankfull stage (15.0 feet) to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage (24.0 feet). At each stage on Peachtree Creek, five stages at the Chattahoochee River streamgage, from 26.4 feet to 38.4 feet in 3-foot intervals, were used to determine backwater effects. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model—derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data having a 0.3-foot vertical and 16.4-foot horizontal resolution—to delineate the area flooded for each 1-foot increment of stream stage. The availability of these maps, when combined with real-time information regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with critical information during flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures as well as for postflood-recovery efforts.

Georgia↗

Hydrogeologic Setting and Ground-Water Flow in the Leetown Area, West Virginia

The Leetown Science Center is a research facility operated by the U.S. Geological Survey that occupies approximately 455-acres near Kearneysville, Jefferson County, West Virginia. Aquatic and fish research conducted at the Center requires adequate supplies of high-quality, cold ground water. Three large springs and three production wells currently (in 2006) supply water to the Center. The recent construction of a second research facility (National Center for Cool and Cold Water Aquaculture) operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and co-located on Center property has placed additional demands on available water resources in the area. A three-dimensional steady-state finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in the Leetown area and was used to assess the availability of ground water to sustain current and anticipated future demands. The model also was developed to test a conceptual model of ground-water flow in the complex karst aquifer system in the Leetown area. Due to the complexity of the karst aquifer system, a multidisciplinary research study was required to define the hydrogeologic setting. Geologic mapping, surface- and borehole-geophysical surveys, stream base-flow surveys, and aquifer tests were conducted to provide the hydrogeologic data necessary to develop and calibrate the model. It would not have been possible to develop a numerical model of the study area without the intensive data collection and methods developments components of the larger, more comprehensive hydrogeologic investigation. Results of geologic mapping and surface-geophysical surveys verified the presence of several prominent thrust faults and identified additional faults and other complex geologic structures (including overturned anticlines and synclines) in the area. These geologic structures are known to control ground-water flow in the region. Results of this study indicate that cross-strike faults and fracture zones are major avenues of ground-water flow. Prior to this investigation, the conceptual model of ground-water flow for the region focused primarily on bedding planes and strike-parallel faults and joints as controls on ground-water flow but did not recognize the importance of cross-strike faults and fracture zones that allow ground water to flow downgradient across or through less permeable geologic formations. Results of the ground-water flow simulation indicate that current operations at the Center do not substantially affect either streamflow (less than a 5-percent reduction in annual streamflow) or ground-water levels in the Leetown area under normal climatic conditions but potentially could have greater effects on streamflow during long-term drought (reduction in streamflow of approximately 14 percent). On the basis of simulation results, ground-water withdrawals based on the anticipated need for an additional 150 to 200 gal/min (gallons per minute) of water at the Center also would not seriously affect streamflow (less than 8 to 9 percent reduction in streamflow) or ground-water levels in the area during normal climatic conditions. During drought conditions, however, the effects of current ground-water withdrawals and anticipated additional withdrawals of 150 to 200 gal/min to augment existing supplies result in moderate to substantial declines in water levels of 0.5-1.2 feet (ft) in the vicinity of the Center's springs and production wells. Streamflow was predicted to be reduced locally by approximately 21 percent. Such withdrawals during a drought or prolonged period of below normal ground-water levels would result in substantial declines in the flow of the Center's springs and likely would not be sustainable for more than a few months. The drought simulated in this model was roughly equivalent to the more than 1-year drought that affected the region from November 1998 through February 2000. The potential reduction in streamflow is a result of capture of ground water tha

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The international seismological observing period in Africa

The International Seismological Observing Period (ISOP) is a specific time interval designated for enhanced international cooperation in the collection and dissemination of observatory measurements from the global seismographic network. The primary purpose of the ISOP is to strengthen the international infrastructure that supports current seismological practice and increase the cooperation among nations that operate seismological observatories. Measurements, reported by the existing global network and compiled by agencies such as the International Seismological Centre (ISC), are providing new information about earthquakes and the structure of the Earth of fundamental importance to the Earth sciences. However, these data represent but a small fraction of the information contained in the seismograms. One of the goals of the ISOP is to collect improved sets of data. In particular, the measurement and reporting of later-arriving phases, during a fixed ISOP period, from earthquakes selected for detailed observation by the cooperating stations will be encouraged. The use of advanced, digital instrumentation provides an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing the methods of seismogram interpretation and seismic parameter extraction, by the implementation of digital processing methods at seismic observatories worldwide. It must be ensured that this new information will be available to the entire seismological community. It is believed that this purpose is best served with an ISOP that promotes increased on-site processing at digital stations in Africa and elsewhere. Improvements in seismology require truly international cooperation and the educational aspects of seismological practice form one of the goals of the ISOP. Thus, workshops will be needed in Africa to train analysts in ISOP procedures and to introduce them to modern techniques and applications of the data. Participants will, thus, benefit from theoretical results and practical experience that are of direct relevance to their own work.

Tectonophysics↗

How do en route events around the Gulf of Mexico influence landbird populations

Habitats around the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide critical resources for Nearctic–Neotropical migratory landbirds, the majority of which travel across or around the GOM every spring and fall as they migrate between temperate breeding grounds in North America and tropical wintering grounds in the Caribbean and Central and South America. At the same time, ecosystems in the GOM are changing rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory landbird populations, many of which are experiencing population declines. In general, the extent to which events encountered en route limit migratory bird populations is not well understood. At the same time, information from weather surveillance radar, stable isotopes, tracking, eBird, and genetic datasets is increasingly available to address many of the unanswered questions about bird populations that migrate through stopover and airspace habitats in the GOM. We review the state of the science and identify key research needs to understand the impacts of en route events around the GOM region on populations of intercontinental landbird migrants that breed in North America, including: (1) distribution, timing, and habitat associations; (2) habitat characteristics and quality; (3) migratory connectivity; and (4) threats to and current conservation status of airspace and stopover habitats. Finally, we also call for the development of unified and comprehensive long-term monitoring guidelines and international partnerships to advance our understanding of the role of habitats around the GOM in supporting migratory landbird populations moving between temperate breeding grounds and wintering grounds in Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean.

The Condor↗

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Lake water quality: Chapter 4 in A synthesis of aquatic science for management of Lakes Mead and Mohave

Given the importance of the availability and quality of water in Lake Mead, it has become one of the most intensely sampled and studied bodies of water in the United States. As a result, data are available from sampling stations across the lake (fig. 4-1 and see U.S. Geological Survey Automated Water-Quality Platforms) to provide information on past and current (2012) water-quality conditions and on invasive species that influence—and are affected by—water quality. Water quality in Lakes Mead and Mohave generally exceeds standards set by the State of Nevada to protect water supplies for public uses: drinking water, aquatic ecosystem health, recreation, or agricultural irrigation. In comparison to other reservoirs studied by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for a national lake assessment (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2010), Lake Mead is well within the highest or ‘good’ category for recreation and aquatic health (see U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment and Lake Mead for more details). While a small part of the lake, particularly Las Vegas Bay, is locally influenced by runoff from urbanized tributaries such as Las Vegas Wash, contaminant loading in the lake as a whole is low compared to other reservoirs in the nation, which are influenced by runoff from more heavily urbanized watersheds (Rosen and Van Metre, 2010).

Circular↗