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USGS2019

Decreased atmospheric nitrogen deposition in eastern North America: Predicted responses of forest ecosystems

Historical increases in emissions and atmospheric deposition of oxidized and reduced nitrogen (N) provided the impetus for extensive, global-scale research investigating the effects of excess N in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, with several regions within the Eastern Deciduous Forest of the United States found to be susceptible to negative effects of excess N. The Clean Air Act and associated rules have led to decreases in emissions and deposition of oxidized N, especially in eastern U.S., representing a research challenge and opportunity for ecosystem ecologists and biogeochemists. The purpose of this paper is to predict changes in the structure and function of North American forest ecosystems in a future of decreased N deposition. Hysteresis is a property of a system wherein output is not a strict function of corresponding input, incorporating lag, delay, or history dependence, particularly when the response to decreasing input is different from the response to increasing input. We suggest a conceptual hysteretic model predicting varying lag times in recovery of soil acidification, plant biodiversity, soil microbial communities, forest carbon (C) and N cycling, and surface water chemistry toward pre-N impact conditions. Nearly all of these can potentially respond strongly to reductions in N deposition. Most responses are expected to show some degree of hysteresis, with the greatest delays in response occurring in processes most tightly linked to “slow pools” of N in wood and soil organic matter. Because experimental studies of declines in N loads in forests of North America are lacking and because of the expected hysteresis, it is difficult to generalize from experimental results to patterns expected from declining N deposition. These will likely be long-term phenomena, difficult to distinguish from other, concurrent environmental changes, including elevated atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, reductions in acidity, invasions of new species, and long-term vegetation responses to past disturbance.

Environmental Pollution↗

USGS2016

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2019

Ross Ice Shelf response to climate driven by the tectonic imprint on seafloor bathymetry

Ocean melting has thinned Antarctica's ice shelves at an increasing rate over the past two decades, leading to loss of grounded ice. The Ross Ice Shelf is currently close to steady state but geological records indicate that it can disintegrate rapidly, which would accelerate grounded ice loss from catchments equivalent to 11.6 m of global sea level rise. Here, we use data from the ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey and new ocean simulations, to identify the principal threats to Ross Ice Shelf stability. We locate the tectonic boundary between East and West Antarctica from magnetic anomalies and use gravity data to generate a new high-resolution map of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry. The tectonic imprint on bathymetry constrains sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation, protecting the ice shelf grounding line from moderate changes in global ocean heat content. In contrast, local, seasonal production of warm upper-ocean water near the ice front drives rapid ice shelf melting east of Ross Island, where thinning would lead to faster grounded ice loss from both East and West Antarctic ice sheets. We confirm high modelled melt rates in this region using ROSETTA-Ice radar data. Our findings highlight the significance of both the tectonic framework and local ocean-atmosphere exchange processes near the ice front in determining the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS1972

Regional and other general factors bearing on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards to coastal communities of southeastern Alaska

The great Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in seismically active regions. As a result, nine communities in southeastern Alaska were selected for reconnaissance investigations as an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. This report gives background information on the regional and other general factors that bear on these evaluations. Southeastern Alaska, about 525 miles long and averaging about 125 miles in width, consists of a narrow mainland strip and numerous islands. For the most part, it is a region of rugged relief with numerous glaciers capping many of the higher mountainous areas and with long linear fiords forming the inland waterways. A maritime climate prevails with mild winters and cool summers. The southeastern part of the region receives the highest precipitation in the continental United States. Ketchikan, with a population of 6,994 in 1970, is the largest city. Geology and structure of the area are complex. Igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks crop out and range in age from Paleozoic to Tertiary. Surficial deposits of Pleistocene and Holocene age mantle many areas. All of southeastern Alaska, except probably the highest peaks, was covered by glacier ice advances of late Pleistocene age. Major deglaciation was well advanced by 10,000 years ago--a time which approximately marks the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene. There followed a period of warm climate called the Hypsithermal, which in southeastern Alaska began 7,000-8,000 years ago and ended about 4,800-3,500 years ago. Glaciers in most places receded back of their present positions. The Hypsithermal was followed by an interval (termed Neoglaciation) of cooler climate and resurgence of glacier ice which continues to the present, although most glaciers are now rapidly receding. During the past 10,000 years worldwide sea level has risen about 100 feet, but during the past 4,000 years it has risen only about 10 feet or about 0.03 inch per year. With sea level used as a datum, the amount of sea-level rise must be added to the apparent uplift of land for the time under consideration to determine the actual amount of land uplift. The widespread presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land in southeastern Alaska has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known uplift is in the vicinity of Juneau where glaciomarine deposits are present 750 feet above present sea level. Part of southeastern Alaska is presently undergoing one of the most rapid rates of uplift of any place in the world. The fastest emergence is occurring in the Glacier Bay area where the land is being uplifted relative to sea level approximately 3.9 cm per year. Most or all of the uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Southeastern Alaska lies within the circum-Pacific earthquake belt, one of the world's greatest zones of seismic activity. During historic time, there have been five earthquakes in the region with magnitudes of 8 or greater, three with magnitudes of 7 to 8, eight with magnitudes of 6 to 7, more than 15 with magnitudes of 5 to 6, and about 140 recorded earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than 5 or of unassigned magnitudes. All of the earthquakes with magnitudes 8 or greater, and a large proportion of the others, appear to be related to the active Fairweather- Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or its western extension, the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Earthquake epicenters on the Denali fault system, the other major fault system in southeastern Alaska, are few in comparison. However, because high microearthquake activity has been recorded recently on this system and earthquakes of moderate size have occurred on some of its segments, the Denali fault system probably should not be dismissed as a relict fault system of no current tectonic importance. There are numerous other known faults, as well as lineaments that may be faults of varying degrees of tectonic activity in southeastern Alaska, adjacent Canada, and eastern Alaska. One of these elements is the Totschunda fault system, which connects with the Denali fault system in eastern Alaska; it has been very active during Holocene time but few historical earthquake epicenters appear to be related to it. Both historical seismicity and geologic conditions, such as frequency and recency of faulting, must be considered together to permit an assessment of the future earthquake probability of an area. Data are too few for both factors for an accurate evaluation to be made of earthquake probability in southeastern Alaska. However, information compiled in the form of strain-release and seismic-zone maps permit some generalizations. Thus, it is tentatively concluded that most, if not all, of southeastern Alaska should be placed in seismic zone 3, a zone in which earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 will occur from time to time and where there may be major damage to manmade structures. Inferred effects from future earthquakes in southeastern Alaska include: (1) surface displacement along faults and other tectonic land-level changes, (2) ground shaking, (3) compaction, (4) liquefaction in cohesionless materials, (5) reaction of sensitive and quick clays, (6) water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing, (7) earthquake-induced sub aerial slides and slumps, (8) earthquake induced subaqueous slides, (9) effects on glaciers and related features, (10) effects on ground water and stream flow, and (11) tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves. Because of the reconnaissance nature of our studies in the coastal communities and the sparsity of laboratory data on physical properties of geologic units in each area studied, the inferred effects must be largely empirical and generalized. Therefore, the inferences are based in large part upon the effects of past major earthquakes in Alaska and elsewhere, particularly upon the well-documented effects of the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. Buildings, highways, bridges, tunnels, harbor facilities, pipelines, canals, and other manmade structures may be severely damaged or destroyed by fault displacement or related tectonic land-level changes in southeastern Alaska. Direct damage from fault rupture would be restricted virtually to structures built directly athwart the fault. In California and Nevada, fault rupture almost always accompanies shocks of magnitude 6.5 or greater. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, and the Chilean earthquake of May 22, 1960, dramatically illustrated the severe adverse effects that can result from uplift or subsidence over a wide area. The variable most responsible for the degree of shaking at any epicentral distance is the type of ground. Generally, shaking is considerably greater in poorly consolidated deposits than in hard bedrock, particularly if the deposits are water saturated. Severe shaking of alluvial deposits and manmade fill, with resultant heavy damage, is well documented from the records of many past earthquakes. Damage commonly has been heavy as a result of ground settlement caused by compaction of loose sediments by shaking during an earthquake. This has been especially true where compaction was accompanied by tectonic downdrop of land, such as occurred during the Chilean earthquake of 1960 and the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Loosely emplaced manmade fill, deltaic deposits, beach deposits, and alluvial deposits may be susceptible to compaction in southeastern Alaska during a severe earthquake. Liquefaction of sand and silt is a fairly common effect of large earthquakes. It was well illustrated at Niigata, Japan, during the earthquake of June 16, 1964, and resulted in extensive damage. When part of a sloping soil mass liquefies, the entire mass can undergo catastrophic failure and can flow as a high-density liquid. In southeastern Alaska, deltaic deposits probably would be most susceptible to liquefaction. Sensitive and quick clays, which lose a considerable part of their strength when shaken, commonly fail during an earthquake and become rapid earthflows. Extensive studies were made of the sensitivity of the Bootlegger Cove Clay at Anchorage because of the marked loss of shear strength and dramatic failures of the deposits during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. If similar sensitive clays are present in some places in southeastern Alaska, they most likely are in some of the emergent fine-grained marine deposits; supporting data to confirm their presence, however, are largely lacking. Records of some 50 major earthquakes show that in at least half of the instances water and sediment have been ejected from surficial deposits Water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing commonly cause extensive damage to the works of man. Ejecta may fill basements and other low-lying parts of buildings. Agricultural land can be covered with a blanket of infertile soils, and small ponds can be filled or made shallow. In southeastern Alaska these phenomena are most likely to occur on valley floors, deltas, tidal flats, alluvial fans, swamps, and lakeshores. Earthquake-induced sliding on land generally is confined to steep slopes but may take place in fine-grained deposits on moderately to nearly flat surfaces if the deposits are subject to liquefaction. A large rockslide triggered by the Lituya Bay, Alaska, earthquake of July 10, 1958, generated a wave that surged up the opposite wall of the inlet to a record height of 1,740 feet. During the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of August 17, 1959, a spectacular rockslide plunged into the Madison River canyon, buried 28 people, dammed the river, and created a large lake. Earthquake-records are replete with accounts of sliding of surficial deposits during moderate to large earthquakes. Most or all of the general factors that favor subaerial landsliding are present in southeastern Alaska. Earthquake-induced subaqueous slides can produce adverse effects both nearshore and some distance offshore. Nearshore sliding may progress shoreward and destroy harbor facilities and other structures, commonly with substantial loss of life. Disastrous large submarine slides occurred along the fronts of deltas in Seward and Valdez during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. In similar fashion, the largest submarine slides in southeastern Alaska likely will be triggered along the larger delta fronts. Sliding farther offshore can constitute a threat to navigation because of changes in water depths. Also underwater sliding can break communication cables. Glaciers were not greatly affected by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 despite the fact that about 20 percent of the area that underwent strong shaking is covered by ice. In contrast, the cataclysmic avalanche of ice and rock that fell from a high glacier-covered peak in Peru during the earthquake of May 31, 1970, produced devastating effects downvalley on man and his works in the form of mudflows. Most towns in southeastern Alaska are sufficiently distant from glaciers so as not be to directly affected. Both the Alaska earthquake of 1964 and the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of 1959 significantly affected ground- and surface-water regimens. Water levels in some wells declined whereas in others flow increased. Some springs discharged at a rate three times as much as normal; flow of others decreased or stopped. Discharge of many streams increased markedly. Most or all of the effects described above could occur in parts of southeastern Alaska during future large earthquakes. Tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves associated with large earthquakes commonly cause vast property damage and heavy loss of life. Tsunami effects can be devastating to coastal areas as far as many thousands of miles from their generation source. Seiche effects generally are confined to inland bodies of water or to relatively enclosed coastal bodies of water. Abnormal waves generated by submarine sliding or by subaerial sliding into water generally produce only local effects but may be highly devastating. Tsunami waves resulting from the Chilean earthquake of 1960 inflicted extensive damage and loss of life on coastal communities throughout a large part of southern Chile, and significant runups and damage were recorded in many places throughout the Pacific Ocean area. The tsunami waves generated by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 struck with devastating force along a broad stretch of the Alaska coast and produced heavy property damage and loss of life as far away as Crescent City, Calif. Seiche waves generated by that earthquake reached runup heights of 20-30 feet on some lakes in Alaska, and water-level fluctuations were recorded on streams, reservoirs, lakes, and swimming pools in States bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Waves generated by submarine sliding struck violently at a number of places during or immediately after the quake and were the major cause of loss of life and damage to property. Slide-generated waves probably would have a higher destructive potential in southeastern Alaska than either tsunami waves or seiche waves because of their possibly higher local runups and because they can hit the shores almost without warning during or immediately after an earthquake. Nonearthquake-related geologic hazards, although generally far less dramatic than those related to earthquakes, tend to occur so much more frequently or persistently that their aggregate effects can be significant. Three kinds of geologic hazards of this type are discussed: (1) nonearthquake-induced landsliding and subaqueous sliding, (2) flooding, and (3) land uplift. The potential for nonearthquake-triggered landsliding in southeastern Alaska ranges widely from place to place. Past sliding generally furnishes the clue in the prediction of where and in what materials future sliding will occur. Fast-moving rockslides, debris slides, and mudflows can be expected to occur from time to time on steep slopes and be highly destructive to highways, power plants, pipelines, buildings, and other facilities located on a slope or at its base. Present slow downslope movement of talus can be expected to continue at the same general rate unless conditions are changed by man or there are climatic changes. Snow and debris avalanches can be especially hazardous during winter months. Long-inactive landslides may be triggered into renewed activity or new slides may be created by man-induced modifications. Accelerated slope erosion and debris flows may follow large-scale clearing and cutting of timber. Subaqueous sliding can be expected to occur periodically along fronts of deltas and on other oversteepened underwater slopes. Floods have been common in parts of southeastern Alaska because of heavy precipitation and rapid runoff from steep slopes with resulting heavy damage to roads and other facilities. Continued damage can be expected in the future unless more remedial measures are taken. Current uplift of land in southeastern Alaska, although probably not affecting man significantly in a short period of time, may have some adverse long-term effects. These long-term effects should be borne in mind when facilities such as docks and boat harbors are constructed on or near the shore, where there is a critical relation between height of land and water.

Alaska↗

USGS1986

A fan dam for Tulare Lake, California, and implications for the Wisconsin glacial history of the Sierra Nevada

Historic fluctuations and late Quaternary deposits of Tulare Lake, in the southern San Joaquin Valley, indicate that maximum lake size has depended chiefly on the height of a frequently overtopped spillway. This dependence gives Tulare Lake a double record of paleoclimate. Climate in the Tulare Lake region has influenced the degree to which the lake fills its basin during dry seasons and dry years: during the past 100,000–130,000 yr, incidence of desiccation of Tulare Lake (inferred from stiffness, mud cracks, and other hand-specimen properties) has been broadly consistent with the lake's salinity and depth (inferred from diatoms and ostracodes) and with regional vegetation (inferred from pollen). Climate, however, also appears to control basin capacity itself: Tulare Lake becomes large as a consequence of glacial-outwash aggradation of its alluvial-fan dam. Late Wisconsin enlargement of Tulare Lake probably resulted from the last major glaciation of the Sierra Nevada. The lake's spillway coincides with the axis of the glacial-outwash fan of a major Sierra Nevada stream; moreover, sediment deposited in the transgressive lake resembles glacial rock flour from the Sierra Nevada. Differential tectonic subsidence and deposition by a Coast Range creek facilitated the building of Tulare Lake's fan dam during the late Wisconsin but were less important than deposition of Sierra Nevada outwash. Four stratigraphically consistent 14 C dates on peat and wood give an age of 26,000 yr B.P. for the start of Tulare Lake's late Wisconsin transgression. The last major Sierra Nevada glaciation (Tioga glaciation) thus may have begun about 26,000 yr B.P., provided that vigorous glacial-outwash deposition began early in the glaciation. Onset of the Tioga glaciation about 26,000 yr B.P. is consistent with new stratigraphic and radiocarbon data from the northeastern San Joaquin Valley. These data suggest that the principal episode of glacial-outwash deposition of Wisconsin age began in the San Joaquin Valley after 32,000 yr B.P., rather than at least 40,000 yr B.P., as previously believed. An earlier enlargement of Tulare Lake probably resulted from a fan dam produced by the penultimate major (Tahoe) glaciation of the Sierra Nevada. Average sedimentation rates inferred from depths to a 600,000-yr-old clay and from radiocarbon dates indicate that this earlier lake originated no later than 100,000 yr B.P. The Tahoe glaciation therefore is probably pre-Wisconsin.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗

USGS2026

Precipitation intensity increased across the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the Industrial Age

The position, strength, and variability of precipitation in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) remain challenging for coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models to represent, leaving future rainfall projections in this dynamically important region uncertain. Here, we present quantitative records of mean annual precipitation (MAP) spanning the past 1,000 years using sediment cores from five freshwater lakes on different islands in the western portion of the SPCZ. Precipitation reconstructions are based on the hydrogen isotope composition of the dinoflagellate biomarker dinosterol, which is inversely correlated with MAP. We show that MAP in the western tropical Pacific increased over the past ∼300 years, with a significant increase beginning in 1,820 ± 75 C.E., coincident with a warming trend in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. These results contrast with the expected drying associated with reduced Pacific Walker Circulation as global temperatures increase in many climate models. Future warming may promote more intense SPCZ precipitation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2021

Climate change may cause shifts in growth and instantaneous natural mortality of American Shad throughout their native range

American Shad Alosa sapidissima is an anadromous species with populations ranging along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Past American Shad stock assessments have been data limited and estimating system-specific growth parameters or instantaneous natural mortality ( M ) was not possible. This precluded system-specific stock assessment and management due to reliance on these parameters for estimating other population dynamics (such as yield per recruit). Furthermore, climate-informed biological reference points remain a largely unaddressed need in American Shad stock assessment. Population abundance estimates of American Shad and other species often rely heavily on M derived from von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters. Therefore, we developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate coastwide, regional, and system-specific VBGF parameters and M using data collected from 1982 to 2017. We tested predictive performance of models that included effects of various climate variables on VBGF parameters within these models. System-specific models were better supported than regional or coast-wide models. Mean asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) decreased with increasing mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and degree days (DD) experienced by fish during their lifetime. Although uncertain, K (Brody growth coefficient) decreased over the same range of lifetime SST and DD. Assuming no adaptation, we projected changes in VBGF parameters and M through 2099 using modeled SST from two climate projection scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We predicted reduced growth under both scenarios, and M was projected to increase by about 0.10. It is unclear how reduced growth and increased mortality may influence population productivity or life history adaptation in the future, but our results may inform stock assessment models to assess those trade-offs.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2022

Streamflow reconstructions from tree rings and variability in drought and surface water supply for the Milk and St. Mary River basins

The Milk and St. Mary Rivers are international waterways straddling the United States and Canada and traversing four Tribal Nations before draining into the Missouri and South Saskatchewan Rivers respectively. Management of water resources in the region is challenged by the complexity of stakeholder interests, the limitations of existing management infrastructure, and by a limited characterization of the long-term streamflow and hydroclimatic variability across the area. We used existing records of natural streamflow to investigate the relationships between seasonal climate variability and differences in the timing and volume of flow from the headwaters to the prairie tributaries. Then, using a network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct records of past streamflow, we assessed whether drought risk relates to these sub-basin specific differences and if drought events experienced during the observational period are representative of those that have occurred over the long-term. Observed climate-flow relationships suggest that outside of the mountain headwaters, where precipitation dominates the hydrograph, streamflow variability on lower reaches of the Milk River is particularly sensitive to winter temperatures. This sensitivity was reflected by severe drought conditions over the prairies during the 2000s, implying potentially large future flow reductions with warming. The streamflow reconstructions show sub-basin specific drought risks that also imply greater temperature driven drought severities across the prairie tributaries. Within the mountain and foothill sub-basins numerous past drought episodes exceed the magnitude and duration of observational period events, which implies the potential for future water supply management challenges stemming from severe, long-duration droughts coupled with the negative hydrologic effects of warmer temperatures.

Montana↗

USGS2015

Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels ( Margaritifera falcata ). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R 2 Pred ) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-of-sample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

Écoscience↗

USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today community report: St. Michael, AK

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today (hereafter ‘BRT’) project as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members. The overarching goal of the project was to collaboratively develop the Indigenous knowledge and western science knowledge for adaptation planning. We worked with five community teams consisting of up to four leaders from communities that chose to participate in the project: Iliamna, Kotlik, Kwigillingok, Quinhagak, and St. Michael. Community teams were developed through the application process and the project duration. Community teams were encouraged to have involvement from multiple governing bodies within the community that could include the Tribal Council, city government, and village corpora- tion. The project title, with its references to the future (Looking Forward), past (Looking Back), and present (Building Resilience Today), refers to the idea that adaptation planning relies on all three perspectives. Equally important, how- ever, is the dialogue to exchange past and present information, context, and what we expect in the future. According- ly, two training sessions held at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska at the beginning and near the end of the project were developed to provide community team interaction with each other and with university and federal science partners. The project team also traveled to the partner communities and held a series of onsite events with community members to document locally-relevant information and share climate science tailored to the needs and conditions of each community. This report represents the community information shared during those onsite events. The Meeting Announcement (page 5) shows the date and description of the outreach events. The purpose of these events was to: 1) facilitate mapping of a Traditional Use Area to refine an area for climate pro- jections; 2) construct current and past seasonal Subsistence Calendars to identify important species and times of the year; 3) document Indigenous and local knowledge from current community members about environmental changes they have observed over their lifetimes; and 4) assist with documenting what the community perceived to be climate-related issues through photos and interviews. The agenda of the visits was co-produced with the commu- nity team. In each community, the community team and the project team co-hosted an open-to-the-public meeting and met with various groups. The community team advertised the meetings by posting community fliers, making announcements on the community radio, and reaching out to individuals that would contribute to the engagement discussions. Each community meeting focused on activities to develop seasonal Subsistence Calendars, map Tradition- al Use Areas, and document observed environmental changes. Community members spent time at stations dedicated to each of these activities working with project team members. The project team also met with various groups of indi- viduals that included village corporation, tribal council, and city representatives where additional information about observed environmental changes was gathered. This community report presents some of the information developed in these activities.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today community report: Kwigillingok, AK

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today (hereafter ‘BRT’) project as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members. The overarching goal of the project was to collaboratively develop the Indigenous knowledge and western science knowledge for adaptation planning. We worked with five community teams consisting of up to four leaders from communities that chose to participate in the project: Iliamna, Kotlik, Kwigillingok, Quinhagak, and St. Michael. Community teams were developed through the application process and the project duration. Community teams were encouraged to have involvement from multiple governing bodies within the community that could include the Tribal Council, the city government, and the village corporation. The project title, with its references to the future (Looking Forward), past (Looking Back), and present (Building Resilience Today), refers to the idea that adaptation planning relies on all three perspectives. Equally import- ant, however, is the dialogue to exchange past and present information, context, and what we expect in the future. Ac- cordingly, two training sessions held at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska at the beginning and near the end of the project were developed to provide community team interaction with each other and with university and federal science partners. The project team also traveled to the partner communities and held a series of onsite events with community members to document locally-relevant information and share climate science tailored to the needs and conditions of each community. This report represents the community information shared during those onsite events. The Meeting Announcement (page 5) shows the date and description of the outreach events. The purpose of these events was to: 1) facilitate mapping of a Traditional Use Area to refine an area for climate pro- jections; 2) construct current and past seasonal Subsistence Calendars to identify important species and times of the year; 3) document Indigenous and local knowledge from current community members about environmental changes they have observed over their lifetimes; and 4) assist with documenting what the community perceived to be climate-related issues through photos and interviews. The agenda of the visits was co-produced with the commu- nity team. In each community, the community team and the project team co-hosted an open-to-the-public meeting and met with various groups. The community team advertised the meetings by posting community fliers, making announcements on the community radio, and reaching out to individuals that would contribute to the engagement discussions. Each community meeting focused on activities to develop seasonal Subsistence Calendars, map Tradition- al Use Areas, and document observed environmental changes. Community members spent time at stations dedicated to each of these activities working with project team members. The project team also met with various groups of indi- viduals that included village corporation, tribal council, and city representatives where additional information about observed environmental changes was gathered. This community report presents some of the information developed in these activities.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today community report: Kotlik, AK

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today (hereafter ‘BRT’) project as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members. The overarching goal of the project was to collaboratively develop the Indigenous knowledge and western science knowledge for adaptation planning. We worked with five community teams consisting of up to four leaders from communities that chose to participate in the project: Iliamna, Kotlik, Kwigillingok, Quinhagak, and St. Michael. Community teams were developed through the application process and the project duration. Community teams were encouraged to have involvement from multiple governing bodies within the community that could include the Tribal Council, the city governments, and the village corporations. The project title, with its references to the future (Looking Forward), past (Looking Back), and present (Building Resil- ience Today), refers to the idea that adaptation planning relies on all three perspectives. Equally important, however, is the dialogue to exchange past and present information, context, and what we expect in the future. Accordingly, two training sessions held at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska at the beginning and near the end of the project were developed to provide community team interaction with each other and with university and feder- al science partners. The project team also traveled to the partner communities and held a series of onsite events with community members to document locally-relevant information and share climate science tailored to the needs and conditions of each community. This report represents the community information shared during those onsite events. The Meeting Announcement (page 5) shows the date and description of the outreach events. The purpose of these events was to: 1) facilitate mapping of a Traditional Use Area to refine an area for climate projec- tions; 2) construct current and past seasonal Subsistence Calendars to identify important species and times of the year; 3) document Indigenous and local knowledge from current community members about environmental changes they have observed over their lifetimes; and 4) assist with documenting what the community perceived to be climate-relat- ed issues through photos and interviews. The agenda of the visits was co-produced with the community team. In each community, the community team and the project team co-hosted an open-to-the-public meeting and met with various groups. The community team advertised the meetings by posting community fliers, making announcements on the community radio, and reaching out to individuals that would contribute to the engagement discussions. Each commu- nity meeting focused on activities to develop seasonal Subsistence Calendars, map Traditional Use Areas, and document observed environmental changes. Community members spent time at stations dedicated to each of these activities working with project team members. The project team also met with various groups of individuals that included village corporation, tribal council, and city representatives where additional information about observed environmental chang- es was gathered. This community report presents some of the information developed in these activities.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Alaska and the Arctic Regional Information Sheet

This is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused information sheets that summarizes documented changes in plant and animal phenology over the past century across the United States. This summary is based on long-term studies (10 years or more) published in the primary scientific literature since 2001. A forthcoming manuscript synthesizes the findings of the eight regional information sheets. This information was developed in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment and can be used to facilitate preparation for the cascading effects of ongoing climate change.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

Observed changes in phenology across the USA: A regional review for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, Hawaii and Pacific Islands Regional Information Sheet

Hawai‘i↗

USGS2016

Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once these issues are addressed, we contend that modeling efforts will better inform and quantify ecosystem services provided by wetlands to meet needs of waterbird conservation and broader societal interests such as flood control and water quality.

Wetlands↗

USGS2012

Airborne electromagnetic imaging of discontinuous permafrost

The evolution of permafrost in cold regions is inextricably connected to hydrogeologic processes, climate, and ecosystems. Permafrost thawing has been linked to changes in wetland and lake areas, alteration of the groundwater contribution to streamflow, carbon release, and increased fire frequency. But detailed knowledge about the dynamic state of permafrost in relation to surface and groundwater systems remains an enigma. Here, we present the results of a pioneering ∼1,800 line-kilometer airborne electromagnetic survey that shows sediments deposited over the past ∼4 million years and the configuration of permafrost to depths of ∼100 meters in the Yukon Flats area near Fort Yukon, Alaska. The Yukon Flats is near the boundary between continuous permafrost to the north and discontinuous permafrost to the south, making it an important location for examining permafrost dynamics. Our results not only provide a detailed snapshot of the present-day configuration of permafrost, but they also expose previously unseen details about potential surface – groundwater connections and the thermal legacy of surface water features that has been recorded in the permafrost over the past ∼1,000 years. This work will be a critical baseline for future permafrost studies aimed at exploring the connections between hydrogeologic, climatic, and ecological processes, and has significant implications for the stewardship of Arctic environments.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire‐making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human‐set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke‐related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas‐induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre‐human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2017

Mapping tree canopy cover in support of proactive prairie grouse conservation in western North America

Invasive woody plant expansion is a primary threat driving fragmentation and loss of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) and prairie habitats across the central and western United States. Expansion of native woody plants, including conifer (primarily Juniperus spp.) and mesquite ( Prosopis spp.), over the past century is primarily attributable to wildfire suppression, historic periods of intensive livestock grazing, and changes in climate. To guide successful conservation programs aimed at reducing top-down stressors, we mapped invasive woody plants at regional scales to evaluate landscape level impacts, target restoration actions, and monitor restoration outcomes. Our overarching goal was to produce seamless regional products across sociopolitical boundaries with resolution fine enough to depict the spatial extent and degree of woody plant invasion relevant to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) conservation efforts. We mapped tree canopy cover at 1-m spatial resolution across an 11-state region (508 265 km 2 ). Greater than 90% of occupied lesser prairie-chicken habitat was largely treeless for conifers (< 1% canopy cover), whereas > 67% was treeless for mesquite. Conifers in the higher canopy cover classes (16 − 50% and > 50% canopy cover) were scarce (< 2% and 1% canopy cover), as was mesquite (< 5% and 1% canopy cover). Occupied habitat by sage-grouse was more variable but also had a relatively large proportion of treeless areas ( x − "> x− = 71, SE = 5%). Low to moderate levels of conifer cover (1 − 20%) were fewer ( x − "> x− = 23, SE = 5%) as were areas in the highest cover class (> 50%; x − "> x− = 6, SE = 2%). Mapping indicated that a high proportion of invading woody plants are at a low to intermediate level. Canopy cover maps for conifer and mesquite resulting from this study provide the first and most geographically complete, high-resolution assessment of woody plant cover as a top-down threat to western sage-steppe and prairie ecosystems.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗