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Updated computations and estimates of streamflows tributary to Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, and Alpine County, California, 1990-2002

Rapid population growth in Carson Valley has caused concern over the continued availability of water resources to sustain future growth. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County, began a study to update estimates of water-budget components in Carson Valley for current climatic conditions. Data collected at 19 sites included 9 continuous records of tributary streamflows, 1 continuous record of outflow from the valley, and 408 measurements of 10 perennially flowing but ungaged drainages. These data were compiled and analyzed to provide updated computations and estimates of streamflows tributary to Carson Valley, 1990-2002. Mean monthly and annual flows were computed from continuous records for the period 1990-2002 for five streams, and for the period available, 1990-97, for four streams. Daily mean flow from ungaged drainages was estimated using multi-variate regressions of individual discharge measurements against measured flow at selected continuous gages. From the estimated daily mean flows, monthly and annual mean flows were calculated from 1990 to 2002. These values were used to compute estimates of mean monthly and annual flows for the ungaged perennial drainages. Using the computed and estimated mean annual flows, annual unit-area runoff was computed for the perennial drainages, which ranged from 0.30 to 2.02 feet. For the period 1990-2002, estimated inflow of perennial streams tributary to Carson Valley totaled about 25,900 acre-feet per year. Inflow computed from gaged perennial drainages totaled 10,300 acre-feet per year, and estimated inflow from ungaged perennial drainages totaled 15,600 acre-feet per year. The annual flow of perennial streams ranges from 4,210 acre-feet at Clear Creek to 450 acre-feet at Stutler Canyon Creek. Differences in unit-area runoff and in the seasonal timing of flow likely are caused by differences in geologic setting, altitude, slope, or aspect of the individual drainages. The remaining drainages are ephemeral and supply inflow to the valley floor only during spring runoff in wet years or during large precipitation events. Annual unit-area runoff for the perennial drainages was used to estimate inflow from ephemeral drainages totaling 11,700 acre-feet per year. The totaled estimate of perennial and ephemeral tributary inflows to Carson Valley is 37,600 acre-feet per year. Gaged perennial inflow is 27 percent of the total, ungaged perennial inflow is 42 percent, and ephemeral inflow is 31 percent. The estimate is from 50 to 60 percent greater than three previous estimates, one made for a larger area and similar to two other estimates made for larger areas. The combined uncertainty of the estimates totaled about 33 percent of the total inflow or about 12,000 acre-feet per year.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of Eutrophication in the Lower Yakima River Basin, Washington, 2004-07

In response to concerns that excessive plant growth in the lower Yakima River in south-central Washington was degrading water quality and affecting recreational use, the U.S. Geological Survey and the South Yakima Conservation District conducted an assessment of eutrophication in the lower 116 miles of the river during the 2004-07 irrigation seasons (March - October). The lower Yakima River was divided into three distinct reaches based on geomorphology, habitat, aquatic plant and water-quality conditions. The Zillah reach extended from the upstream edge of the study area at river mile (RM) 116 to RM 72, and had abundant periphyton growth and sparse macrophyte growth, the lowest nutrient concentrations, and moderately severe summer dissolved oxygen and pH conditions in 2005. The Mabton reach extended from RM 72 to RM 47, and had sparse periphyton and macrophyte growth, the highest nutrient conditions, but the least severe summer dissolved oxygen and pH conditions in 2005. The Kiona reach extended from RM 47 to RM 4, and had abundant macrophyte and epiphytic algae growth, relatively high nutrient concentrations, and the most severe summer dissolved oxygen and pH conditions in 2005. Nutrient concentrations in the lower Yakima River were high enough at certain times and locations during the irrigation seasons during 2004-07 to support the abundant growth of periphytic algae and macrophytes. The metabolism associated with this aquatic plant growth caused large daily fluctuations in dissolved oxygen concentrations and pH levels that exceeded the Washington State water-quality standards for these parameters between July and September during all 4 years, but also during other months when streamflow was unusually low. The daily minimum dissolved oxygen concentration was strongly and negatively related to the preceding day's maximum water temperature - information that could prove useful if a dissolved oxygen predictive model is developed for the lower Yakima River. Periphytic algal growth generally was not nutrient-limited and frequently reached nuisance levels in the Zillah reach, where some surface-water nutrient concentrations were below the reference concentrations suggested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Although lowering nutrient concentrations in this reach might limit periphytic algal growth enough to improve dissolved oxygen and pH conditions, ground water inflow at some locations might still provide an adequate supply of nutrients for periphytic algal growth. Macrophyte growth in the Kiona reach was dominated by water stargrass (Heteranthera dubia), was far greater compared to the other two reaches, varied greatly between years, and was negatively related to greater spring runoff due to lower light availability. Lowering nutrient concentrations in the Kiona reach might not impact the level of macrophyte growth because macrophytes with extensive root systems such as water stargrass can get nutrients from river sediment. In addition, the results from this study did not indicate any nutrient uptake by the macrophytes from the water column (nutrient uptake from the sediment was not examined). Creating the prolonged turbid and deep conditions during spring necessary to suppress macrophyte growth in this reach would not be possible in years with low streamflow. In addition, because of the relatively stable substrate present in much of this reach, the macrophyte root systems would likely not be disturbed under all but the most extremely high streamflows that occur in the lower Yakima River.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Changes in streamflow and water quality in selected nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay Basin, 1985-2003

Water-quality and streamflow data from 33 sites in nontidal portions of the Chesapeake Bay Basin were analyzed to document annual nutrient and sediment loads and trends for 1985 through 2003 as part of an annual evaluation of water-quality conditions by the Chesapeake Bay Program. As part of this study, different trend tests and methodologies were evaluated for future use in assessment of the effectiveness of management actions in reducing nutrients and sediments to the Chesapeake Bay. Trends in streamflow were tested at multiple time scales (daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual), resulting in only one significant trend (annual flow for Choptank River near Greensboro, Md.). Data summaries for observed concentrations indicate higher ranges in total-nitrogen concentrations in the northern five major river basins in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Virginia compared to the southern five basins in Virginia. Similar comparisons showed no distinct differences for total phosphorus. Flow-weighted concentration is useful in evaluating changes through time for the Susquehanna, Potomac, and James Rivers. Results indicate the Potomac River had the highest flow-weighted concentrations (2.5 milligrams per liter) for total nitrogen, and the Potomac and James Rivers averaged about the same (0.15 milligram per liter) for total-phosphorus concentrations. Flow-weighted concentrations were lowest in the Susquehanna River for phosphorus and sediment because of the trapping efficiency of three large reservoirs upstream from the sampling point. Annual loads were estimated by use of the U.S. Geological Surveys ESTIMATOR model. Annual nutrient and sediment loads in 2003 were the second highest total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment loads for the River Input Monitoring sites since 1990. Trends in concentrations, when adjusted for flow, can be used as an indicator of human activity and management actions. The flow-adjusted trends indicated significant decreasing trends at approximately 55, 75, and 48 percent of the sites for total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. This suggests management actions are having some effect in reducing nutrients and sediments. Sampling protocols for the river inputs to the bay have targeted high flows. Because this sampling strategy creates the potential for bias in estimated loads and trends, calculations are limited to flow-adjusted loads and trends in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A reconnaissance spatial and temporal assessment of methane and inorganic constituents in groundwater in bedrock aquifers, Pike County, Pennsylvania, 2012-13

Pike County in northeastern Pennsylvania is underlain by the Devonian-age Marcellus Shale and other shales, formations that have potential for natural gas development. During 2012–13, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Pike County Conservation District conducted a reconnaissance study to assess baseline shallow groundwater quality in bedrock aquifers prior to possible shale-gas development in the county. For the spatial component of the assessment, 20 wells were sampled in summer 2012 to provide data on the occurrence of methane and other aspects of existing groundwater quality throughout the county, including concentrations of inorganic constituents commonly present at low levels in shallow, fresh groundwater but elevated in brines. For the temporal component of the assessment, 4 of the 20 wells sampled in summer 2012 were sampled monthly from July 2012 through June 2013 to provide data on seasonal variability in groundwater quality. All water samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, selected inorganic trace constituents (including metals and other elements), stable isotopes of water, radon-222, gross alpha- and gross beta-particle activity, dissolved gases (methane, ethane, and ethene), and, if possible, isotopic composition of methane. Additional analyses for boron and strontium isotopes, age-dating of water, and radium-226 were done on water samples collected from six wells in June 2013. Results of the summer 2012 sampling show that water from 16 (80 percent) of 20 wells had detectable concentrations of methane, but concentrations were less than 0.1 milligram per liter (mg/L) in most well-water samples; only two well-water samples had concentrations greater than 1 mg/L. The groundwater with elevated methane also had a chemical composition that differed in some respects (pH, selected major ions, and inorganic trace constituents) from groundwater with low methane concentrations. The two well-water samples with the highest methane concentrations (about 3.7 and 5.8 mg/L) also had the highest pH values (8.7 and 8.3, respectively) and the highest concentrations of sodium, lithium, boron, fluoride, and bromide. Elevated concentrations of some other constituents, such as barium, strontium, and chloride, were not limited to well-water samples with elevated methane, although the two samples with elevated methane also had among the highest concentrations of these constituents. One sample with elevated methane concentrations also had elevated arsenic concentrations, with the arsenic concentration of 30 micrograms per liter (μg/L) exceeding the drinking-water standard of 10 µg/L for arsenic. No other sample from the 20 wells sampled in summer 2012 had concentrations of constituents that exceeded any established primary drinking-water standards. However, radon-222 activities ranging up to 4,500 picocuries per liter (pCi/L) exceeded the proposed drinking-water standard of 300 pCi/L in 85 percent of the 20 well-water samples. The isotopic composition methane in the two high-methane samples (δC CH4 values of -64.55 and -64.41 per mil and δD CH4 values of -216.9 and -201.8 per mil, respectively) indicates a predominantly microbial source for the methane formed by a carbon dioxide reduction process. The stable isotopic composition of water (δD H20 and δ 18 O H20 ) in samples from all 20 wells falls on the local meteoric line, indicating water in the wells was of relatively recent meteoric origin (modern precipitation), including samples with elevated methane concentrations. Analytical results for 4 of the 20 wells sampled monthly for 1 year ending June 2013 in order to assess temporal variability in groundwater quality show that concentrations of major ions generally varied by less than 20 percent, with most differences less than 4 mg/L. Concentrations of methane varied by less than 1 μg/L (0.001 mg/L) in samples from three wells with low methane and by as much as 1 mg/L (1,000 μg/L) in samples from one well with relatively high methane. The isotopic composition of methane in the one well with relatively high methane varied slightly in the monthly samples, ranging from about -64.5 to -64.8 per mil for δ 13 C CH4 and from about -217 to -228 per mil for δD CH4 . The δ 13 C values for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in water from this well were consistent with microbial methane formation by carbon dioxide reduction (drift-type methane) and varied little in the temporal samples, ranging from -10.5 to -10.1 per mil. Additional analyses of samples collected in late June 2013 from six wells with a range of methane and trace constituent concentrations provided baseline data on strontium and boron isotopic compositions ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and δ 11 B, respectively) that potentially may be used to differentiate among sources of these constituents. The strontium and boron isotopic composition determined in the six shallow Pike County groundwater samples had 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of 0.71426 to 0.71531 and δ 11 B values of 11.7 to 27.0 per mil, which differ from those reported for brines in Devonian-age formations in Pennsylvania. The June 2013 samples were also analyzed for radium-226 and age-dating dissolved gases. Activities of radium-226 ranged from 0.041 to 0.29 pCi/L in water samples from the six wells and were less than the drinking-water standard of 5 pCi/L for combined radium-226 and radium-228. Age-dating of groundwater using a method based on the presence of anthropogenic gases (chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride) released into the atmosphere yielded estimated recharge dates for water from these six wells that ranged from the 1940s to early 2000s. The oldest water was in samples from wells that had the highest methane concentrations and the youngest water was in samples from a continuously pumped 300-foot deep production well.

Pennsylvania↗

Areas contributing recharge to production wells and effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins, Rhode Island

The Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins in southern Rhode Island are an important water resource for public and domestic supply, irrigation, recreation, and aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began a study in 2012 as part of an effort to protect the source of water to six large-capacity production wells that supply drinking water and to increase understanding of how climate change might affect the water resources in the basins. Soil-water-balance and groundwater-flow models were developed to delineate the areas contributing recharge to the wells and to quantify the hydrologic response to climate change. Surficial deposits of glacial origin ranging from a few feet to more than 200 feet thick overlie bedrock in the 24.4-square mile study area. These deposits comprise a complex and productive aquifer system. Simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells covered a total area of 0.63 square miles for average well withdrawal rates from 2007 through 2011 (total rate of 583 gallons per minute). Simulated areas contributing recharge for the maximum well pumping capacities (total rate of 3,700 gallons per minute) covered a total area of 2.55 square miles. Most simulated areas contributing recharge extend upgradient of the wells to morainal and upland till deposits and to groundwater divides. Some simulated areas contributing recharge include small, isolated areas remote from the wells. Relatively short groundwater traveltimes from recharging locations to discharging wells indicated that the wells are vulnerable to contamination from land-surface activities; median traveltimes ranged from 3.5 to 8.6 years for the production wells examined, and 57 to 91 percent of the traveltimes were 10 years or less. Land cover in the areas contributing recharge includes a substantial amount of urban and agriculture land use for five wells adjacent to the Chipuxet River; for one well adjacent to a tributary stream, land use is less developed. The calibrated groundwater-flow model provided a single, best representation of the areas contributing recharge to a production well. The parameter variance-covariance matrix from model calibration was used to create parameter sets that reflect the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and the correlation among parameters to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted contributing areas to the wells. A Monte Carlo analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution that differed from a single deterministic contributing area. Because of the effects of parameter uncertainty, the size of the probabilistic contributing areas for both average and maximum pumping rates was larger than the size of the deterministic contributing areas for the wells. Thus, some areas not in the deterministic contributing area might actually be in the contributing area, including additional areas of urban and agricultural land use that has the potential to contaminate groundwater. Additional areas that might be in the contributing area included recharge originating near the pumping wells that have relatively short groundwater-flow paths and traveltimes. At the maximum pumping rates, areas associated with low probabilities extended long distances along groundwater divides in the uplands remote from the wells. Climate projections for the Chipuxet River and Chickasheen Brook Basins from downscaled output from general circulation models indicate that mean annual temperature might increase by 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit and 8.0 degrees Fahrenheit by the late 21st century (2070–99) compared with the late 20th century (1970–99) under scenarios of lower and higher emissions of greenhouse gases, respectively. By the late 21st century, winter and spring precipitation is projected to increase by 12 to 17 percent, summer precipitation to increase by about the same as mean annual precipitation (8 percent), and fall precipitation to decrease by 5 percent for both emission scenarios compared with the late 20th century. Soil-water-balance simulations indicate that, although precipitation is expected to increase in three seasons, only in winter do precipitation increases exceed actual evapotranspiration increases. Recharge is projected to decrease in fall and generally change little in spring and summer. By the late 21st century, winter recharge is expected to increase by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 15 percent for the higher emissions scenario. In fall, recharge is projected to diminish by 13 percent for the lower emissions scenario and by 24 percent for the higher emissions scenario. Although recharge is projected to change seasonally in the 21st century, mean annual recharge changes minimally. Soil moisture is projected to decrease in the 21st century from spring through fall because of increases in potential evapotranspiration, and in fall because of decreases in precipitation in addition to increases in potential evapotranspiration. By the late 21st century, soil moisture for the lower emissions scenario is expected to decrease by 11 percent in summer and 15 percent in fall, and for the higher emissions scenario, decrease by 23 percent for both seasons. These decreases in soil moisture during the growing season might have implications for agriculture in the study area. Predicted changes in the magnitude and seasonal distribution of recharge in the 21st century increase simulated base flows and groundwater levels in the winter months for both emission scenarios, but because of less recharge in the fall and less or about the same recharge in the preceding months of spring and summer, base flows and groundwater levels in the fall months decrease for both emission scenarios. October has the largest base flow and groundwater level decreases. By the late 21st century, base flows at the Chipuxet River in October are projected to decrease by 9 percent for the lower emissions scenario and 18 percent for the higher emissions scenario. For a headwater stream in the upland till with shorter groundwater-flow paths and lower storage properties in its drainage area, base flows in October are projected to diminish by 28 percent and 42 percent for the lower and higher emissions scenarios by the late 21st century. Groundwater level changes in the uplands show substantial decreases in fall, but because of the large storage capacity of stratified deposits, water levels change minimally in the valley. By the late 21st century, water levels in large areas of upland till deposits in October are projected to decrease by up to 2 feet for the lower emissions scenario, whereas large areas decrease by up to 5 feet, with small areas with decreases of as much as 10 feet, for the higher emissions scenario. For both emission scenarios, additional areas of till go dry in fall compared with the late 20th century. Thus projected changes in recharge in the 21st century might extend low flows and low water levels for the year later in fall and there might be more intermittent headwater streams compared with the late 20th century with corresponding implications to aquatic habitat. Finally, the size and location of the simulated areas contributing recharge to the production wells are minimally affected by climate change because mean annual recharge, which is used to determine the contributing areas to the production wells, is projected to change little in the 21st century.

Rhode Island↗

Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004

Strategies for managing water supplies and groundwater quality in the Modesto region of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, are being formulated and evaluated by the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association. Management issues and goals in the basin include an area in the lower part of the basin that requires drainage of the shallow water table to sustain agriculture, intra- and inter-basin migration of poor-quality groundwater, and efficient management of surface and groundwater supplies. To aid in the evaluation of water-management strategies, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Stanislaus and Tuolumne Rivers Groundwater Basin Association have developed a hydrologic model that simulates monthly groundwater and surface-water flow as governed by aquifer-system properties, annual and seasonal variations in climate, surface-water flow and availability, water use, and land use. The model was constructed by using the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-modeling software MODFLOW-OWHM with the Farm Process. Available measurements of groundwater pumped for municipal, irrigation, and drainage purposes are specified in the model, as are deliveries of surface water. Private irrigation pumping and recharge associated with agricultural land use were estimated by using the Farm Process in MODFLOW-OWHM, which simulates landscape processes associated with irrigated agriculture and other land uses. The distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer system was constrained by using data from more than 3,500 drillers' logs. The model was calibrated to 4,061 measured groundwater levels in 109 wells and 2,739 mean monthly surface-water flows measured at 6 streamgages during 1960-2004 by using a semi-automated method of parameter estimation. The model fit to groundwater levels was good, with an absolute mean residual of 0.8 feet; 74 percent of simulated heads were within 10 feet of those observed. The model fit to streamflow was biased low, but reasonable overall; the absolute mean residual of streamflow was 780 cubic feet per second, and 68 percent of simulated streamflows were within 500 cubic feet per second of observed. Hydrographs both of groundwater levels and streamflow indicated overall an acceptable fit to observed trends. Simulated private agricultural pumpage ranged from about 780,000 to 1,380,000 acre-feet per year and averaged about 1,000,000 acre-feet per year from 1960 to 2004. Simulated deep percolation, or groundwater recharge from precipitation and irrigation, varied with climate and land use from about 1,100,000 to 1,700,000 acre-feet per year, averaging 1,360,000 acre-feet per year. Key limitations of the model with respect to estimating these large components of the water budget are the uncertainty associated with actual irrigation deliveries and irrigation efficiencies and the lack of metered data for private agricultural groundwater pumping. Different assumptions with respect to irrigation deliveries and efficiencies, and other model input, would result in different estimates of private agricultural groundwater use. The simulated exchange between groundwater and surface water was a small percentage of streamflow, typically ranging within a loss or gain of about 2 cubic feet per second per mile. The simulated exchange compared reasonably with limited independent estimates available, but substantial uncertainty is associated with these estimates.

California↗

Using inferential sensors for quality control of Everglades Depth Estimation Network water-level data

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), with over 240 real-time gaging stations, provides hydrologic data for freshwater and tidal areas of the Everglades. These data are used to generate daily water-level and water-depth maps of the Everglades that are used to assess biotic responses to hydrologic change resulting from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The generation of EDEN daily water-level and water-depth maps is dependent on high quality real-time data from water-level stations. Real-time data are automatically checked for outliers by assigning minimum and maximum thresholds for each station. Small errors in the real-time data, such as gradual drift of malfunctioning pressure transducers, are more difficult to immediately identify with visual inspection of time-series plots and may only be identified during on-site inspections of the stations. Correcting these small errors in the data often is time consuming and water-level data may not be finalized for several months. To provide daily water-level and water-depth maps on a near real-time basis, EDEN needed an automated process to identify errors in water-level data and to provide estimates for missing or erroneous water-level data. The Automated Data Assurance and Management (ADAM) software uses inferential sensor technology often used in industrial applications. Rather than installing a redundant sensor to measure a process, such as an additional water-level station, inferential sensors, or virtual sensors, were developed for each station that make accurate estimates of the process measured by the hard sensor (water-level gaging station). The inferential sensors in the ADAM software are empirical models that use inputs from one or more proximal stations. The advantage of ADAM is that it provides a redundant signal to the sensor in the field without the environmental threats associated with field conditions at stations (flood or hurricane, for example). In the event that a station does malfunction, ADAM provides an accurate estimate for the period of missing data. The ADAM software also is used in the quality assurance and quality control of the data. The virtual signals are compared to the real-time data, and if the difference between the two signals exceeds a certain tolerance, corrective action to the data and (or) the gaging station can be taken. The ADAM software is automated so that, each morning, the real-time EDEN data are compared to the inferential sensor signals and digital reports highlighting potential erroneous real-time data are generated for appropriate support personnel. The development and application of inferential sensors is easily transferable to other real-time hydrologic monitoring networks.

Florida↗

Computation and error analysis of discharge for the Lake Michigan Diversion Project in Illinois: 1997-99 water years

Acoustic velocity meters (AVM's) and acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP's) were used to measure streamflow at four streamflow-gaging stations in the Chicago River system. The streamflow data were used to compute discharge and to determine the uncertainty in the computed annual mean discharge at each station for the Lake Michigan Diversion Project in Illinois. Descriptions of the instrumentation at each station, stage-area and index-velocity ratings, and methods utilized for computing discharge and estimating missing record are given. Daily mean and annual mean discharges were computed for each station for 1997-99 water years (WY's). A water year is defined as the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30. The water year is designated by the calendar year in which it ends and which includes 9 of the 12 months. Thus, the year ending September 30, 1999, is called the 1999 water year. A first-order error analysis was applied to acoustic velocity meter (AVM) data, stage-area, and index-velocity ratings at each streamflow-gaging station. The error analysis results indicate that the uncertainty is sensitive to the value of uncertainty associated with acoustic Doppler cur-rent profiler (ADCP) discharge measurement data. At the Chicago River at Columbus Drive at Chicago, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty, expressed as a standard deviation of the average annual discharge, ranged from 13 to 18 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas total uncertainty ranged from 55 to 69 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was included. At the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal at Romeoville, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty ranged from 18 to 20 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas it ranged from 64 to 68 ft3/s when it was included. At the Calumet River below O'Brien Lock and Dam at Chicago, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, the uncertainty ranged from 13 to 22 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was not included, whereas it ranged from 35 to 53 ft3/s when it was included. At the North Shore Channel at Wilmette, Illinois station for the 1997-99 WY's, when the record was entirely estimated, the uncertainty ranged from 8 to 12 ft3/s when the ADCP uncertainty was not included, and from 16 to 17 ft3/s when it was included. For the 2000 WY, the estimated uncertainty was 8.6 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty is not included and 12.5 ft3/s when ADCP uncertainty was included.

Illinois↗

Water-quality synoptic sampling, July 1999: North Fork Shenandoah River, Virginia

A study was conducted of water-quality conditions that may affect aquatic life during periods of low streamflow on the North Fork Shenandoah River, Va. Monthly mean streamflows in July 1999 at three streamflow-gaging stations were the lowest measured during the historical record on the river. Daily extremes of dissolved-oxygen concentrations were measured, along with pH, specific conductance, and water-temperature values, at 52 sites along 80 mi of the North Fork Shenandoah River from Cootes Store, Va., to its confluence with Passage Creek, near Strasburg, Va. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations ranged from 2.1 to 16.4 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were equal to or less than the State water-quality minimum of 4.0 mg/L at 18 of 52 monitoring sites; all 18 sites were in the upper and middle portions of the river, where more than half of the first 34 sites had minimum dissolved-oxygen concentrations equal to or less than 4.0 mg/L. There were large variations from minimum to maximum dissolved-oxygen concentrations, with concentrations fluctuating as much as 10 mg/L per day; and typically 5 mg/L per day during the study period. pH ranged from 7.6 to 9.6, with pH values frequently greater than 9.0 in the downstream portion of the river. Specific-conductance values ranged from 178 to 856 microsiemens per centimeter (μS/cm), with values greater than 600 μS/cm only measured at a group of five sites in the upstream portion of the river. Air temperatures ranged from 21.0 to 37.0 degrees Celsius (ºC), and water temperatures ranged from 17.00 to 30.14ºC. Along the length of the North Fork Shenandoah River, longitudinal variation in water-quality parameters was small. Groups of sites that differed from the general pattern define reaches where increased monitoring may help determine the factors that affect water quality at those sites.

Virginia↗

Characterization of water quality in Bushy Park Reservoir, South Carolina, 2013–15

The Bushy Park Reservoir is the principal water supply for 400,000 people in the greater Charleston, South Carolina, area, which includes homes as well as businesses and industries in the Bushy Park Industrial Complex. Charleston Water System and the U.S. Geological Survey conducted a cooperative study during 2013–15 to assess the circulation of Bushy Park Reservoir and its effects on water-quality conditions, specifically, recurring taste-and-odor episodes. This report describes the water-quality data collected for the study that included a combination of discrete water-column sampling at seven locations in the reservoir and longitudinal water-quality profiling surveys of the reservoir and tributaries to characterize the temporal and spatial water-quality dynamics of Bushy Park Reservoir. Water-quality profiling surveys were conducted with an autonomous underwater vehicle equipped with a multiparameter water-quality-sonde bulkhead. Data collected by the autonomous underwater vehicle included water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, turbidity, total chlorophyll as fluorescence (estimate of algal biomass), and phycocyanin as fluorescence (estimate of cyanobacteria biomass) data. Characterization of the water-quality conditions in the reservoir included comparison to established State nutrient guidelines, identification of any spatial and seasonal variation in water-quality conditions and phytoplankton community structures, and assessment of the degree of influence of water-quality conditions related to Foster Creek and Durham Canal inflows, especially during periods of elevated taste-and-odor concentrations. Depth-profile and autonomous underwater vehicle survey data were used to identify areas within the reservoir where greater phytoplankton and cyanobacteria densities were most likely occurring. Water-quality survey results indicated that Bushy Park Reservoir tended to stratify thermally at a depth of about 20 feet from June to early October. The stratification was limited to the deeper portions of the reservoir near the dam and often dissipated within the reservoir near the CWS intake less than a mile upstream from the dam. Where thermally stratified, a corresponding depletion of dissolved oxygen also occurred at about the same depth and resulted in an anoxic hypolimnion below the 25-foot depth and an increase in specific conductance, likely due to re-mobilized metals and phosphorus under reducing conditions. In general, chlorophyll estimated from fluorescence exhibited some spatial variation, but no strong consistent pattern or “hot spot” was observed. Phycocyanin, estimated from relative fluorescence unit output as blue-green algae cell density, periodically seemed to be greater in the upper portion of the reservoir, but those differences may be attributed to increased turbidity and the potential change in phytoplankton community structure that affects fluorescence. Increased phycocyanin was observed at about the 10-foot depth during the summer months. A constant production of 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) near the dam and geosmin in the middle and upper portions of the reservoir appears to be occurring during the summer and early fall in the reservoir, but concentrations of these compounds tend to be between 10 and 15 nanograms per liter, which is at the Charleston Water System treatment threshold. At the Bushy Park Reservoir intake, the dominant taste-and-odor compound tended to be MIB, measured at a 2- or 3-to-1 ratio with geosmin during the summer and fall. During springtime episodes, however, when taste-and-odor compound concentrations typically are elevated above the Charleston Water System treatment threshold, the spatial distribution of geosmin concentrations greater than 15 nanograms per liter (28 to 38 nanograms per liter) was best explained by in situ production in the lower portion of the Bushy Park Reservoir near the dam rather than transport from Foster Creek. This pattern seems to indicate a possible shift in phytoplankton communities (or, at least, cyanobacteria communities) from MIB producers to geosmin producers. The spatial and seasonal assessment of water-quality conditions in Bushy Park Reservoir identified seasonal differences in water chemistry and spatial differences between the upper and lower portions of the reservoir that correspond to the location of elevated geosmin concentrations. On the basis of the spatial and seasonal assessment of actinomycetes concentrations compared to taste-and-odor compound concentrations, cyanobacteria production likely was the dominant source of the taste-and-odor episodes rather than actinomycetes. The lack of spatial and seasonal patterns in actinomycetes concentrations did not correspond to the springtime geosmin concentrations that were elevated above the Charleston Water System treatment threshold in the lower portion of the reservoir. Additionally, actinomycetes concentrations, although ubiquitous, had a median of about 9 and maximum of about 20 colonies per milliliter, which can be considered low for elevated taste-and-odor compound production. Nonetheless, the potential exists for actinomycetes to be a secondary source of taste-and-odor production and could explain some of the ubiquitous occurrence of low-level taste-and-odor production, such as MIB concentrations, observed throughout the summer and early fall months. When evaluated by biovolume, cyanobacteria were not the dominant phytoplankton group in Bushy Park Reservoir during the study period. Dolichospermum planctonicum (previously Anabaena planktonica ) was the dominant genera of the cyanobacteria group during spring periods. The geosmin-producing genera that were identified in the 2014 and 2015 spring communities in Bushy Park Reservoir were not observed in the 1999 and 2000 algal taxonomic data. A more robust examination of phytoplankton species was conducted by using a multivariate analysis that identified seasonal changes in phytoplankton community structure. These seasonal phytoplankton communities appeared to be explained by seasonal changes in water chemistry and may be responsible for episodes of taste-and-odor occurrence, especially geosmin. The most probable source of geosmin identified during the study was D. planctonicum . In a synoptic sampling event during a taste-and-odor episode in April 2015, cyanobacteria, not acinomycetes, also was indicated to be the more prevalent source of the geosmin. Although the Edisto River intake and its associated supply tunnel to the treatment facility had relatively high actinomycetes concentrations (130 and 140 colonies per milliliter, respectively) compared to the Bushy Park intake and tunnel (2 colonies per milliliter), corresponding geosmin concentrations were below 5 nanograms per liter for source water from the Edisto River intake and tunnel. Elevated geosmin concentrations above the Charleston Water System treatment threshold were identified in source waters from the Bushy Park Reservoir. The cyanobacteria community at the sampled sites in April 2015 was statistically similar to the community in the Bushy Park Reservoir in April 2014, when geosmin concentrations also were elevated. The only geosmin-producing genus identified at the Bushy Park intake, however, was D. planctonicum .

South Carolina↗

Geochemistry and characteristics of nitrogen transport at a confined animal feeding operation in a coastal plain agricultural watershed, and implications for nutrient loading in the Neuse River basin, North Carolina, 1999-2002

Chemical, geologic, hydrologic, and age-dating information collected between 1999 and 2002 were used to examine the transport of contaminants, primarily nitrogen, in ground water and the pathways to surface water in a coastal plain setting in North Carolina. Data were collected from more than 35 wells and 4 surface-water sampling sites located in a 0.59 square-mile basin to examine detailed hydrogeology and geochemical processes affecting nutrient fate and transport. Two additional surface-water sampling sites were located downstream from the primary study site to evaluate basin-scale effects. Chemical and flow data also were collected at an additional 10 sites in the Coastal Plain portion of the Neuse River basin located between Kinston and New Bern, North Carolina, to evaluate loads transported in the Neuse River and primary tributary basins. At the Lizzie Research Station study site in North Carolina, horizontal flow is induced by the presence of a confining unit at shallow depth. Age-dating, chemical, and piezometric data indicate that horizontal flow from the surficial aquifer is the dominant source of ground water to streamflow. Nitrogen applied on cultivated fields at the Lizzie Research Station is substantially reduced as it moves from recharge to discharge areas. Denitrification in deeper parts of the aquifer and in riparian zones is indicated by a characterization of redox conditions in the aquifer and by the presence of excess nitrogen gas. Direct ground-water discharge of nitrate to surface water during base-flow conditions is unlikely to be significant because of strongly reducing conditions that occur in the riparian zones of these streams. Nitrate loads from a drainage tile at the study site may account for much of the nitrate load in the receiving stream, indicating that a major source of nutrients from ground water to this stream is artificial drainage. During base-flow conditions when the streams are not flowing, it is hypothesized that the mineralization of organic matter on the streambed is the source of nitrate and(or) ammonium in the stream. Base flow is a small contributor to nitrogen loads, because both flows and inorganic nitrogen concentrations are low during summer months. Effects of a confined hog operation on ground-water quality also were evaluated. The use of sprayed swine wastes to fertilize crops at the Lizzie Research Station study site since 1995 resulted in increased concentrations of nitrate and other chemical constituents in ground water beneath spray fields when compared to ground water beneath fields treated with commercial fertilizer. The nitrate concentration in ground water from the spray field well increased by a factor of 3.5 after 4 years of spray applications. Nitrate concentrations ranged from 10 to 35 milligrams per liter, and one concentration as high as 56 milligrams per liter was observed in water from this well in spring 2002. This finding is in agreement with findings of other studies conducted in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina that nitrate concentrations were significantly higher in ground water from cultivated fields sprayed with swine wastes than from fields treated with commercial fertilizer. Loads and yields of nitrogen and phosphorus in 14 streams in the Neuse River basin were evaluated for calendar years 2000 and 2001. Data indicate that anthropogenic effects on nitrogen yields were greatest in the first-order stream studied (yields were greater than 2 tons per square mile [ton/mi2] and 1 ton/mi2 or less in second- and higher-order streams) in the Little Contentnea Creek subbasin. Nitrogen yields in streams in the Contentnea Creek subbasin ranged from 0.59 to 2 ton/mi2 with typical yields of approximately 1 ton/mi2. Contentnea Creek near Evansdale had the highest yield (2 ton/mi2), indicating that a major source of nitrogen is upstream from this station. Nitrogen yields were lower at Contentnea Creek at Hookerton in 2000 and 2001 compared to previous yi

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Development of a traveltime prediction equation for streams in Arkansas

During 1971 and 1981 and 2001 and 2003, traveltime measurements were made at 33 sample sites on 18 streams throughout northern and western Arkansas using fluorescent dye. Most measurements were made during steady-state base-flow conditions with the exception of three measurements made during near steady-state medium-flow conditions (for the study described in this report, medium-flow is approximately 100-150 percent of the mean monthly streamflow during the month the dye trace was conducted). These traveltime data were compared to the U.S. Geological Survey?s national traveltime prediction equation and used to develop a specific traveltime prediction equation for Arkansas streams. In general, the national traveltime prediction equation yielded results that over-predicted the velocity of the streams for 29 of the 33 sites measured. The standard error for the national traveltime prediction equation was 105 percent. The coefficient of determination was 0.78. The Arkansas prediction equation developed from a regression analysis of dye-tracing results was a significant improvement over the national prediction equation. This regression analysis yielded a standard error of 46 percent and a coefficient of determination of 0.74. The predicted velocities using this equation compared better to measured velocities. Using the variables in a regression analysis, the Arkansas prediction equation derived for the peak velocity in feet per second was: (Actual Equation Shown in report) In addition to knowing when the peak concentration will arrive at a site, it is of great interest to know when the leading edge of a contaminant plume will arrive. The traveltime of the leading edge of a contaminant plume indicates when a potential problem might first develop and also defines the overall shape of the concentration response function. Previous USGS reports have shown no significant relation between any of the variables and the time from injection to the arrival of the leading edge of the dye plume. For this report, the analysis of the dye-tracing data yielded a significant correlation between traveltime of the leading edge and traveltime of the peak concentration with an R2 value of 0.99. These data indicate that the traveltime of the leading edge can be estimated from: (Actual Equation Shown in Report)

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessment of Ground-Water Resources in the Seacoast Region of New Hampshire

Numerical ground-water-flow models were developed for a 160-square-mile area of coastal New Hampshire to provide insight into the recharge, discharge, and availability of ground water. Population growth and increasing water use prompted concern for the sustainability of the region's ground-water resources. Previously, the regional hydraulic characteristics of the fractured bedrock aquifer in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire were not well known. In the current study, the ground-water-flow system was assessed by using two different models developed and calibrated under steady-state seasonal low-flow and transient monthly conditions to ground-water heads and base-flow discharges. The models were, (1) a steady-state model representing current (2003-04) seasonal low-flow conditions used to simulate current and future projected water use during low-flow conditions; and (2) a transient model representing current average and estimated future monthly conditions over a 2-year period used to simulate current and future projected climate-change conditions. The analysis by the ground-water-flow models indicates that the Seacoast aquifer system is a transient flow system with seasonal variations in ground-water flow. A pseudosteady- state condition exists in the fall when the steady-state model was calibrated. The average annual recharge during the period analyzed, 2000-04, was approximately 51 percent of the annual precipitation. The average net monthly recharge rate between 2003 and 2004 varied from 5.5 inches per month in March, to zero in July, and to about 0.3 inches per month in August and September. Recharge normally increases to about 2 inches per month in late fall and early winter (November through December) and declines to about 1.5 inches per month in late winter (January and February). About 50 percent of the annual recharge coincides with snowmelt in the spring (March and April), and 20 percent occurs in the late fall and early winter (November through February). Net recharge, calculated as infiltration of precipitation minus evapotranspiration, can be negative during summer months (particularly July). Regional bulk hydraulic conductivities of the bedrock aquifer were estimated to be about 0.1 to 1.0 feet per day. Estimated hydraulic conductivities in model areas representing the Rye Complex and the Kittery Formation were higher (0.5 to 1 foot per day) than in areas representing the Eliot Formation, the Exeter Diorite, and the Newburyport Complex, which have estimated hydraulic conductivities of 0.1 to 0.2 foot per day. A northeast-southwest regional anisotropy of about 5:1 was estimated in some areas of the model; this pattern is parallel to the regional structural trend and predominant fracture orientation. In areas of the model with more observation data, the upper and lower 95-percent confidence intervals for the estimated bedrock hydraulic conductivity were about half an order of magnitude above and below the parameter, respectively, and the estimated confidence intervals for estimated specific storage were within an order of magnitude of the parameter. In areas of the model with few data points, or few stresses, confidence intervals were several orders of magnitude. Estimated model parameters and their confidence intervals are a function of the conceptual model design, observation data, and the weights placed on the data. The amount of recharge that enters the bedrock aquifer at a specific point depends on (1) the location of the point in the flow field; (2) the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (or the connectivity of fractures); and (3) the stresses within the bedrock aquifer. In addition, ground water stored in unconsolidated overburden sediments, including till and other fine-grained sediments, may constitute a large percentage of the water available from storage to the bedrock aquifer. Recharge into the bedrock aquifer at a point can range from zero to nearly all the recharge at the surface dependin

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Measurement and simulation of evapotranspiration at a wetland site in the New Jersey Pinelands

Evapotranspiration (ET) was monitored above a wetland forest canopy dominated by pitch-pine in the New Jersey Pinelands during November 10, 2004-February 20, 2007, using an eddy-covariance method. Twelve-month ET totals ranged from 786 to 821 millimeters (mm). Minimum and maximum ET rates occurred during December-February and in July, respectively. Relations between ET and several environmental variables (incoming solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and net radiation) were explored. Net radiation (r = 0.72) and air temperature (r = 0.73) were the dominant explanatory variables for daily ET. Air temperature was the dominant control on evaporative fraction with relatively more radiant energy used for ET at higher temperatures. Soil moisture was shown to limit ET during extended dry periods. With volumetric soil moisture below a threshold of about 0.15, the evaporative fraction decreased until rain ended the dry period, and the evaporative fraction sharply recovered. A modified Hargreaves ET model, requiring only easily obtainable daily temperature data, was shown to be effective at simulating measured ET values and has the potential for estimating historical or real-time ET at the wetland site. The average annual ET measured at the wetland site during 2005-06 (801 mm/yr) is about 32 percent higher than previously reported ET for three nearby upland sites during 2005-09. Periodic disturbance by fire and insect defoliation at the upland sites reduced ET. When only undisturbed periods were considered, the wetland ET was 17 percent higher than the undisturbed upland ET. Interannual variability in wetlands ET may be lower than that of uplands ET because the upland stands are more susceptible to periodic drought conditions, disturbance by fire, and insect defoliation. Precipitation during the study period at the nearby Indian Mills weather station was slightly higher than the long-term (1902-2011) annual mean of 1,173 millimeters (mm), with 1,325 and 1,396 mm of precipitation in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

New Jersey↗

Bathymetric contour maps, surface area and capacity tables, and bathymetric change maps for selected water-supply lakes in Missouri, 2022–23

Bathymetric data were collected at 13 water-supply lakes around the periphery of Missouri by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources and various local agencies, as part of a multiyear effort to establish or update the surface area and capacity tables for the surveyed lakes. Surveys were carried out during the months of April and May in 2022 and 2023. All but two of the lakes had been surveyed previously by the U.S. Geological Survey, and the recent surveys were compared to the earlier surveys to document the changes in the bathymetric surface and capacity of the lake. Bathymetric data were collected using a high-resolution multibeam mapping system mounted on a boat. Supplemental depth data at three of the lakes were collected in shallow areas with an acoustic Doppler current profiler on a remote-controlled boat. Data points from the various sources were exported at a gridded data resolution appropriate to each lake, either 0.82 foot, 1.64 feet, or 3.28 feet. Data outside the multibeam survey extent and greater than the surveyed water-surface elevation were obtained from data collected using aerial light detection and ranging (lidar) point cloud data. A linear enforcement technique was used to add points to the dataset in areas of sparse data (the upper ends of coves where the water was shallow or aquatic vegetation precluded data acquisition) based on surrounding multibeam and upland data values. The various point datasets were used to produce a three-dimensional triangulated irregular network surface of the lake-bottom elevations for each lake. A surface area and capacity table was produced from the three-dimensional surface for each lake showing surface area and capacity at specified lake water-surface elevations. Various quality-assurance tests were conducted to ensure quality data were collected with the multibeam, including beam angle checks and patch tests. Additional quality-assurance tests were conducted on the gridded bathymetric data from the survey, the bathymetric surface created from the gridded data, and the contours created from the bathymetric survey.

Missouri↗

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Wisconsin↗

Using microbial source tracking to identify fecal contamination sources in Patchogue and Bellport Bays on Long Island, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to assess the potential sources of fecal contamination entering Patchogue and Bellport Bays, two embayments on the south shore of Suffolk County, Long Island, New York. Water samples are routinely collected by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation in the bays and analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, an indicator of fecal contamination, to determine the need for closure of shellfish beds for harvest and consumption. Fecal coliform and other bacteria are an indicator of the potential presence of pathogenic (disease-causing) bacteria. However, indicator bacteria alone cannot determine the biological or geographical sources of contamination; therefore, microbial source tracking was implemented to determine various biological sources of contamination. In addition, information such as the location, weather and season, and surrounding land use where a sample was collected help determine the geographical source and conveyance of land-based water to the embayment. Analysis revealed that the most substantial source of fecal contamination to Patchogue and Bellport Bays was discharge from sites draining ponds and wetlands into the rivers and tributaries sampled, particularly during the summer months. Fecal coliform bacteria at sites where ponds and wetlands drain are increased by stormwater runoff, which is another substantial source of fecal contamination. Overall, canine- and waterfowl-associated bacterial contributions were prevalent in source samples in both bays. Human-associated markers were present in surface-water source samples and completely absent in receptor samples in Patchogue Bay. The Fireplace Neck receptor site in Bellport Bay had a human-associated marker present in the summer wet sample only. Human markers were detected at the sample site downstream from the Patchogue wastewater treatment plant but were associated with low fecal coliform concentrations, indicating that the wastewater treatment plant is not a likely source of fecal contamination to Patchogue Bay. The lack of human-associated marker detections within Patchogue and Bellport Bays in summer source samples coupled with low to no detections of fecal coliform, especially where small marinas are present in creeks and tributaries, suggest that boats do not substantially contribute fecal coliform bacteria to the bays. There was little evidence of groundwater-contributing fecal bacteria by direct discharge from the subsurface. Further, the sandy sediment alongside Patchogue and Bellport Bays is unlikely to contribute fecal coliform bacteria from the test host organisms when resuspended in the water column. A classification scheme was developed to convey the degree of fecal contamination to stakeholders and resource managers. Based on this classification scheme, the Corey Creek Near Middle Road, Patchogue River Near Division Street, and Swan River Mouth sampling sites were identified as locations that contribute substantial fecal contamination to Patchogue Bay. In Bellport Bay, the Culvert at Beaverdam Creek site was identified as the location contributing the most substantial fecal contamination.

New York↗

Geohydrology of Big Bear Valley, California: phase 1--geologic framework, recharge, and preliminary assessment of the source and age of groundwater

The Big Bear Valley, located in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, has increased in population in recent years. Most of the water supply for the area is pumped from the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This study was conducted to better understand the thickness and structure of the groundwater basin in order to estimate the quantity and distribution of natural recharge to Big Bear Valley. A gravity survey was used to estimate the thickness of the alluvial deposits that form the Big Bear Valley groundwater basin. This determined that the alluvial deposits reach a maximum thickness of 1,500 to 2,000 feet beneath the center of Big Bear Lake and the area between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, and decrease to less than 500 feet thick beneath the eastern end of Big Bear Lake. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) was used to measure pumping-induced land subsidence and to locate structures, such as faults, that could affect groundwater movement. The measurements indicated small amounts of land deformation (uplift and subsidence) in the area between Big Bear Lake and Baldwin Lake, the area near the city of Big Bear Lake, and the area near Sugarloaf, California. Both the gravity and InSAR measurements indicated the possible presence of subsurface faults in subbasins between Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes, but additional data are required for confirmation. The distribution and quantity of groundwater recharge in the area were evaluated by using a regional water-balance model (Basin Characterization Model, or BCM) and a daily rainfall-runoff model (INFILv3). The BCM calculated spatially distributed potential recharge in the study area of approximately 12,700 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) of potential in-place recharge and 30,800 acre-ft/yr of potential runoff. Using the assumption that only 10 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, this approach indicated there is approximately 15,800 acre-ft/yr of total recharge in Big Bear Valley. The INFILv3 model was modified for this study to include a perched zone beneath the root zone to better simulate lateral seepage and recharge in the shallow subsurface in mountainous terrain. The climate input used in the INFILv3 model was developed by using daily climate data from 84 National Climatic Data Center stations and published Parameter Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) average monthly precipitation maps to match the drier average monthly precipitation measured in the Baldwin Lake drainage basin. This model resulted in a good representation of localized rain-shadow effects and calibrated well to measured lake volumes at Big Bear and Baldwin Lakes. The simulated average annual recharge was about 5,480 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear study area, with about 2,800 acre-ft/yr in the Big Bear Lake surface-water drainage basin and about 2,680 acre-ft/yr in the Baldwin Lake surface-water drainage basin. One spring and eight wells were sampled and analyzed for chemical and isotopic data in 2005 and 2006 to determine if isotopic techniques could be used to assess the sources and ages of groundwater in the Big Bear Valley. This approach showed that the predominant source of recharge to the Big Bear Valley is winter precipitation falling on the surrounding mountains. The tritium and uncorrected carbon-14 ages of samples collected from wells for this study indicated that the groundwater basin contains water of different ages, ranging from modern to about 17,200-years old.The results of these investigations provide an understanding of the lateral and vertical extent of the groundwater basin, the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge, the processes responsible for the recharge, and the source and age of groundwater in the groundwater basin. Although the studies do not provide an understanding of the detailed water-bearing properties necessary to determine the groundwater availability of the basin, they do provide a framework for the future development of a groundwater model that would help to improve the understanding of the potential hydrologic effects of water-management alternatives in Big Bear Valley.

California↗