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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Integrating encounter theory with decision analysis to evaluate collision risk and determine optimal protection zones for wildlife

1.Better understanding human‐wildlife interactions and their links with management can help improve the design of wildlife protection zones. One example is the problem of wildlife collisions with vehicles or human‐built structures (e.g. power lines, wind farms). In fact, collisions between marine wildlife and watercraft are among the major threats faced by several endangered species of marine mammals. Natural resource managers are therefore interested in finding cost‐effective solutions to mitigate these threats. 2.We combined abundance estimators with encounter rate theory to estimate relative lethal collision risk of the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) from watercraft. We first modeled seasonal abundance of watercraft and manatees using a Bayesian analysis of aerial survey count data. We then modeled relative lethal collision risk in space and across seasons. Finally, we applied decision analysis and Linear Integer Programming to determine the optimal design of speed zones in terms of relative risk to manatees and costs to waterway users. We used a Pareto efficient frontier approach to evaluate the performance of alternative zones, which included additional practical considerations (e.g. spatial aggregation of speed zones) in relation to the optimal zone configurations. 3.Under the various relationships for probability of death given strike speed that we considered, the current speed zones reduced the relative lethal collision risk by an average of 51.5% to 70% compared to the scenario in which all speed regulations were removed (i.e. the no‐protection scenario). We identified optimal zones and near‐optimal zones with additional management considerations that improved upon the current zones in terms of cost or relative risk. 4.Policy Implications : Our analytical framework combines encounter rate theory and decision analysis to quantify the effectiveness of speed zones protecting manatees while accounting for uncertainty. Our approach can be used to optimize the design of protection zones intended to reduce conflicts between human waterborne activity and marine mammals. This framework could be extended to address many other problems of human‐wildlife interactions, such as the optimal placement of wind farms to minimize collisions with wildlife or the optimal allocation of ranger effort to mitigate poaching threats.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2009

Streamflow Simulations and Percolation Estimates Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for Selected Basins in North-Central Nebraska, 1940-2005

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate streamflow and estimate percolation in north-central Nebraska to aid development of long-term strategies for management of hydrologically connected ground and surface water. Although groundwater models adequately simulate subsurface hydrologic processes, they often are not designed to simulate the hydrologically complex processes occurring at or near the land surface. The use of watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, which are designed specifically to simulate surface and near-subsurface processes, can provide helpful insight into the effects of surface-water hydrology on the groundwater system. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated for five stream basins in the Elkhorn-Loup Groundwater Model study area in north-central Nebraska to obtain spatially variable estimates of percolation. Six watershed models were calibrated to recorded streamflow in each subbasin by modifying the adjustment parameters. The calibrated parameter sets were then used to simulate a validation period; the validation period was half of the total streamflow period of record with a minimum requirement of 10 years. If the statistical and water-balance results for the validation period were similar to those for the calibration period, a model was considered satisfactory. Statistical measures of each watershed model's performance were variable. These objective measures included the Nash-Sutcliffe measure of efficiency, the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data, and an estimate of bias. The model met performance criteria for the bias statistic, but failed to meet statistical adequacy criteria for the other two performance measures when evaluated at a monthly time step. A primary cause of the poor model validation results was the inability of the model to reproduce the sustained base flow and streamflow response to precipitation that was observed in the Sand Hills region. The watershed models also were evaluated based on how well they conformed to the annual mass balance (precipitation equals the sum of evapotranspiration, streamflow/runoff, and deep percolation). The model was able to adequately simulate annual values of evapotranspiration, runoff, and precipitation in comparison to reported values, which indicates the model may provide reasonable estimates of annual percolation. Mean annual percolation estimated by the model as basin averages varied within the study area from a maximum of 12.9 inches in the Loup River Basin to a minimum of 1.5 inches in the Shell Creek Basin. Percolation also varied within the studied basins; basin headwaters tended to have greater percolation rates than downstream areas. This variance in percolation rates was mainly was because of the predominance of sandy, highly permeable soils in the upstream areas of the modeled basins.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2014

Description of landscape features, summary of existing hydrologic data, and identification of data gaps for the Osage Nation, northeastern Oklahoma, 1890-2012

The Osage Nation of northeastern Oklahoma, conterminous with Osage County, is characterized by gently rolling uplands and incised stream valleys that have downcut into underlying sedimentary rock units of Pennsylvanian through Permian age. Cattle ranching and petroleum and natural-gas extraction are the principal land uses in this rural area. Freshwater resources in the Osage Nation include water flowing in the Arkansas River and several smaller streams, water stored in several lakes, and groundwater contained in unconsolidated alluvial aquifers and bedrock aquifers. The Vamoosa-Ada aquifer is the primary source of fresh groundwater in this area. Fresh groundwater is underlain by saline groundwater in aquifers underlying the Osage Nation. Because of the potential for future population increases, demands for water from neighboring areas such as the Tulsa metropolitan area, and expansion of petroleum and natural-gas extraction on water resources of this area, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Osage Nation, summarized existing hydrologic data and identified data gaps to provide information for planning of future development of water resources in the Osage Nation. Streamflows in the Osage Nation are substantially affected by precipitation. During the relatively wet periods from the 1970s to 2000, the annual streamflows in the Osage Nation increased by as much as a factor of 2 relative to preceding decades, with subsequent decreases in streamflow of as much as 50 percent being recorded during intermittent drier years of the early 2000s. This report summarizes hydrologic data from 3 surface-water sites and 91 wells distributed across the Osage Nation. Data collected at those sites indicate that surface water in the Osage Nation generally has sufficient dissolved oxygen for survival of both coldwater and warmwater aquatic biota. Total dissolved solids concentration exceeded the secondary drinking-water standard of 500 milligrams per liter (mg/L) in up to 75 percent of the surface-water samples, indicating limited availability of potable water at some sites. Some surface-water samples collected in the Osage Nation contained dissolved chloride concentrations exceeding the secondary drinking-water standard of 250 mg/L, with greater chloride concentrations in selected basins appearing to be associated with greater densities of petroleum well locations. Several lakes sampled in the Osage Nation from 2011–12 contained sufficient chlorophyll-a concentrations to be ranked as mesotrophic to eutrophic, indicating impairment by nutrients. Relatively large dissolved phosphorus concentrations in many surface-water samples, compared to water-quality standards, indicate that eutrophication can occur in local streams and lakes. The amount of fresh groundwater stored in alluvial aquifers and the Vamoosa-Ada bedrock aquifer is adequate for domestic and other purposes in the Osage Nation at the current rate of usage. In areas where these aquifers are absent, groundwater must be pumped from minor bedrock aquifers that produce smaller volumes of water. About 30 and 60 percent of 32 and 54 water samples collected from the alluvial and Vamoosa-Ada aquifers, respectively, contained total dissolved solids concentrations larger than the secondary drinking-water standard of 500 mg/L. Local factors, such as natural seepage of brines or leakage from petroleum and natural-gas extraction activities, may cause substantial variations in dissolved chloride concentration in groundwater in the Osage Nation. Total phosphorus concentrations measured in groundwater samples were similar to dissolved phosphorus concentrations measured in the base flow of several streams. Total fresh surface-water withdrawals (use) and fresh groundwater withdrawals in the Osage Nation were estimated to have increased from 0.75 to 16.19 million gallons per day and from 0.13 to 2.39 million gallons per day, respectively, over the period from 1890 through 2010. Estimated saline-groundwater reinjection volumes at the heavily developed Burbank Oil Field in the Osage Nation from 1950 through 2012 were many times larger than the total amounts of freshwater withdrawn in this area, with estimated increases in saline-groundwater reinjection in the 2000s probably being related to increased petroleum extraction. Estimates of freshwater resources in local streams, lakes, and freshwater aquifers and of net annual precipitation indicate that less than 1 percent of freshwater resources and net annual precipitation currently is being withdrawn annually in the Osage Nation. In addition to freshwater resources, the Osage Nation may be underlain by 45,000,000 million gallons of brines, a small portion of which are withdrawn and reinjected during petroleum and natural-gas extraction. Ongoing development of desalinization technology may lead to the ability to expand use of these saline waters in the future. Several additional studies could improve understanding of the hydrologic resources of the Osage Nation. Development of computer models (simulations) of groundwater and surface-water flow for this area could enable testing of scenarios of localized and widespread effects of future climate variations and water-use changes on streamflows, lake-water levels, and groundwater levels in the Osage Nation. Installation of additional long-term streamflow and water-quality sampling stations, some with continuous water-quality monitors, could expand and improve understanding of surface-water quality. Periodic measurement of groundwater levels and sampling of water from a network of wells could provide better information about trends of groundwater quantity and quality with time. Measurement of water withdrawals at selected sites could enable more accurate estimates of water use. Lastly, better understanding of aquifer properties and spatial distribution of saline groundwater provided by geophysical surveys could improve understanding of fresh and saline groundwater resources underlying the Osage Nation.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2022

Puerto Rico’s state of the climate 2014-2021

The climate of Puerto Rico is influenced by the changing global climate. The following chapters present the current knowledge of the geophysical and chemical drivers and signals of global climate change as they affect the climate of Puerto Rico and influence the climate-dependent services, risks, and vulnerabilities that govern human well-being. These include sustainable economic development, delivery of ecosystem services, the conservation of natural and cultural resources, resiliency in built and natural systems, and food security. The chapters draw on global expertise of land, atmosphere, and ocean geophysical interactions associated with increasing greenhouse gases that drive global warming and on local scientific expertise, data, observations, and modeled projections. They present the global warming scenario (section 1), the contribution of Puerto Rico to global climate change as GHG emissions and aerosols (section 2), the context of natural climate variability (section 3), observed and projected trends in temperature (section 4), rainfall (section 5), sea level rise (section 6), ocean acidification and sea surface warming (section 7), and the expected implications of warming climate on tropical cyclones affecting Puerto Rico (section 8).

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2003

FORSPAN Model Users Guide

The USGS FORSPAN model is designed for the assessment of continuous accumulations of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (collectively called petroleum). Continuous (also called ?unconventional?) accumulations have large spatial dimensions and lack well defined down-dip petroleum/water contacts. Oil and natural gas therefore are not localized by buoyancy in water in these accumulations. Continuous accumulations include ?tight gas reservoirs,? coalbed gas, oil and gas in shale, oil and gas in chalk, and shallow biogenic gas. The FORSPAN model treats a continuous accumulation as a collection of petroleumcontaining cells for assessment purposes. Each cell is capable of producing oil or gas, but the cells may vary significantly from one another in their production (and thus economic) characteristics. The potential additions to reserves from continuous petroleum resources are calculated by statistically combining probability distributions of the estimated number of untested cells having the potential for additions to reserves with the estimated volume of oil and natural gas that each of the untested cells may potentially produce (total recovery). One such statistical method for combination of number of cells with total recovery, used by the USGS, is called ACCESS.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Three-dimensional geologic model of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer, south-central Oklahoma

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer of south-central Oklahoma encompasses more than 850 square kilometers and is the principal water resource for south-central Oklahoma. Rock units comprising the aquifer are characterized by limestone, dolomite, and sandstones assigned to two lower Paleozoic units: the Arbuckle and Simpson Groups. Also considered to be part of the aquifer is the underlying Cambrian-age Timbered Hills Group that contains limestone and sandstone. The highly faulted and fractured nature of the Arbuckle-Simpson units and the variable thickness (600 to 2,750 meters) increases the complexity in determining the subsurface geologic framework of this aquifer. A three-dimensional EarthVision (Trademark) geologic framework model was constructed to quantify the geometric relationships of the rock units of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer in the Hunton anticline area. This 3-D EarthVision (Trademark) geologic framework model incorporates 54 faults and four modeled units: basement, Arbuckle-Timbered Hills Group, Simpson Group, and post-Simpson. Primary data used to define the model's 54 faults and four modeled surfaces were obtained from geophysical logs, cores, and cuttings from 126 water and petroleum wells. The 3-D framework model both depicts the volumetric extent of the aquifer and provides the stratigraphic layer thickness and elevation data used to construct a MODFLOW version 2000 regional groundwater-flow model.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Post-wildfire curve number estimates for the southern Rocky Mountains in Colorado, USA

The curve number method first developed by the US Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (now the Natural Resources Conservation Service) is often used for post-wildfire runoff assessments. These assessments are critical for land and emergency managers making decisions on life and property risks following a wildfire event. Three approaches (i.e., historical event observations, linear regression model, and regression tree model) were used to help estimate a post-wildfire curve number from watershed and wildfire parameters. For the first method, we used runoff events from 102 burned watersheds in Colorado, southern Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and eastern Utah to quantify changes in curve number values from pre- to post-wildfire conditions. The curve number changes from the measured runoff events vary substantially between positive and negative values. The measured curve number changes were then associated with watershed characteristics (e.g., slope, elevation, northness, and eastness) and land cover type to develop prediction models that provide estimates of post-wildfire curve number changes. Finally, we used a regression tree method to demonstrate that accurate predications can be developed using the measured curve number changes from our study domain. These models can be used for future post-wildfire assessments within the region.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS1996

National Digital Orthophoto Program

A critical component of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) is Framework. Framework provides a base on which to collect, register, and integrate geospatial information accurately and consistently. The Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) proposed that Framework include geodetic control, orthoimagery, elevation, transportation, hydrography, governmental units, and cadastral data. The Mapping Science Committee of the National Research Council recommends that geodetic control, orthoimagery, and elevation data become the critical foundation of the NSDI. The National Digital Orthophoto Program (NDOP) is a working model on how Federal, State, and local government, as well as private industry, can participate to develop the orthoimagery Framework for the Nation.

Report↗
USGS2006

Descriptions and preliminary report on sediment cores from the southwest coastal area, Part II: Collected July 2005, Everglades National Park, Florida

Twelve cores were collected from six sites in the southwest coastal area of Everglades National Park, Florida, in July 2005. These six sites create transects up three river systems that are part of the complex network of channels and bays that form the mangrove and coastal glades – Lostmans River system, Harney River system, and Shark River system. The three transects are linked to two cores collected in 2004 from Big Lostmans Bay and Tarpon Bay. A preliminary model of changes in flow through the southwest coastal zone is proposed based on an examination of the sediments and an initial assessment of key indicator species of mollusks within the cores. Throughout the time period recorded by deposition of these cores, flow to the southwest coastal area has been predominantly through the Shark River channels, diminishing to the north toward the Lostmans River system. The Lostmans system was less influenced by freshwater flow and more emergent than the two systems to the south. Freshwater flow has periodically reached the mouths of the Harney and Shark River systems, but these areas have persistently been zones of mixed estuarine environments, typical of transition zones. Evidence for a substantial change in the flow regime is found in the mid-system cores from the Harney and Shark Rivers. The lower portions of both cores were deposited in freshwater environments, with no indication of estuarine influence; however, a shift towards more estuarine conditions occurs in the upper portions of the cores and a loss of the larger freshwater fauna. These results are preliminary. The next step will be to develop age models and to conduct quantitative analyses of the fauna, flora, and sediment geochemistry at these sites. Results of the quantitative analyses will provide information on the natural and anthropogenic changes that have occurred in the southwest coastal system that will allow resource managers to set targets for restoration.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park elk monitoring program annual report 2011

Fiscal year 2011 was the first year of implementing an approved elk monitoring protocol in Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) National Parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) (Griffin et al. 2012). However, it was the fourth and second year of gathering data according to protocol in MORA and OLYM respectively; data gathered during the protocol development phase followed procedures that are laid out in the protocol. Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys; however the protocol estimates the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA is estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed using survey data from 2008-2010 (Griffin et al. 2012). That model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio-collars on elk. Consequently the majority of the effort in OLYM in the past 4 years has been focused on capturing and radio-collaring elk and conducting sightability trials needed to develop a double-observer sightability model in OLYM. In this annual report we provide estimates of abundance and composition for MORA elk, raw counts of elk made in OLYM, and describe sightability trials conducted in OLYM. At MORA the North trend count area was surveyed twice and the South once (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd). We counted 373 and 267 elk during two replicate surveys of the North Rainier herd, and 535 elk in the South Rainier herd. Using the model, we estimated that 413 and 320 elk were in the North and 652 elk were in the South trend count areas during the time of the respective surveys. At OLYM, the Core and Northwest trend count areas were completely surveyed, as were portions of the Quinault. In addition, we surveyed 10 survey units specifically to get resight data. Two-hundred and forty eight elk were counted in the Core, 19 in the Northwest, and 169 in the Quinault. We conducted double-observer sightability trials associated with 14 collared elk groups for use in developing the double-observer sightability model for OLYM.

Washington↗
USGS2014

The 3D Elevation Program: summary for Maryland

Elevation data are essential to a broad range of applications, including forest resources management, wildlife and habitat management, national security, recreation, and many others. For the State of Maryland, elevation data are critical for agriculture and precision farming, natural resources conservation such as the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed, flood risk management, urban and regional planning, infrastructure and construction management, water supply and quality, coastal zone management, and other business uses. Today, high-density light detection and ranging (lidar) data are the primary sources for deriving elevation models and other datasets. Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies work in partnership to (1) replace data that are older and of lower quality and (2) provide coverage where publicly accessible data do not exist. A joint goal of State and Federal partners is to acquire consistent, statewide coverage to support existing and emerging applications enabled by lidar data. The National Enhanced Elevation Assessment evaluated multiple elevation data acquisition options to determine the optimal data quality and data replacement cycle relative to cost to meet the identified requirements of the user community. The evaluation demonstrated that lidar acquisition at quality level 2 for the conterminous United States and quality level 5 ifsar data for Alaska with a 6- to 10-year acquisition cycle provided the highest benefit/cost ratios. The 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) initiative selected an 8-year acquisition cycle for the respective quality levels. 3DEP, managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Office of Management and Budget Circular A–16 lead agency for terrestrial elevation data, responds to the growing need for high-quality topographic data and a wide range of other 3D representations of the Nation’s natural and constructed features.

Maryland↗
USGS2026

Spatial variation in effectiveness and costs of sagebrush restoration treatments across the western United States

Natural resource managers strive to improve restoration efficiency across the vast network of public lands of the United States, seeking the best return on investment through innovation, geographic prioritization, and adaptive management. This challenge is exemplified by ecosystems dominated by sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.), which occur across the western United States and have been degraded by increasing wildfire frequency driven by invasive plant spread, among other factors. However, both costs and effectiveness of sagebrush restoration can vary spatially due to management practices in addition to biotic and abiotic factors, and characterizing this variation could inform broad-scale planning. We leveraged published models of sagebrush recovery and treatment costs to predict and evaluate cost-effectiveness of aerial and drill seeding Artemisia spp. across 429 718 km 2 that overlapped 12 US states. Compared to natural recovery, effectiveness for both methods was generally low, yet effectiveness was often greater, and costs were always greater, for drill than aerial seeding, resulting in slightly higher cost-effectiveness on average for drill seeding. Cost-effectiveness for both treatments increased near major roads and in areas with more repeated burns. Cost-effectiveness also increased with predisturbance cover of sagebrush but decreased with herbaceous cover. However, we also identified areas where aerial seeding was more cost-effective than drill seeding, particularly with greater slope. Our results provide spatially explicit estimates and potential mechanisms of cost-effectiveness for two common seeding methods for sagebrush, which can help prioritize limited resources, guide land use, and improve restoration efficiency and effectiveness across public rangelands of the western United States.

western United States↗
USGS2026

Using demographic estimation and power analysis to inform monitoring efforts and detect declines in freshwater mussels

Population assessments can be used to determine species' viability and inform conservation efforts; however, obtaining sufficient data quality and quantity can be challenging when monitoring resources are scarce. Brook Floater ( Alasmidonta varicosa ) is a freshwater mussel that is state listed in the United States as endangered or threatened in 10 of the 14 states it occupies. Despite the conservation concern, little is known about the size and demographics of most Brook Floater populations. The primary objective of this study was to determine demographic parameters (abundance and survival) for Brook Floater at five newly established, long-term monitoring sites in Maine and Massachusetts, United States. A secondary objective was to evaluate tradeoffs of potential future sampling strategies by state natural resource agencies at these monitoring sites. Mussels were sampled at each site using visual and tactile snorkel surveys twice each summer during 2018–2020 and marked with alphanumeric tags to distinguish individuals. We considered a candidate set of capture-recapture models that allowed parameters to vary depending on year, sampling occasion, and individual shell length. Abundance estimates among sites varied widely, from 29 individuals (range: 12–119) in the Nissitissit River in Massachusetts to 311 individuals (range: 307–320) in the East Branch of the Pleasant River in Maine. Annual survival was high across all sites (0.87–0.96). Given the differences in capture probability and abundance between states, we determined the statistical power available to detect given population declines in Massachusetts and explored alternative population abundance estimators in Maine. The power analysis suggested that the existing sampling regimen in Maine is likely adequate while sampling in Massachusetts may require additional occasions each year to realistically detect population declines with sufficient statistical power. This analysis demonstrates the utility of considering sampling frequency when designing capture-recapture studies for freshwater mussels and other taxa.

Maine, Massachusetts↗
USGS2009

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems↗
USGS2021

Resource use among top-level piscivores in a temperate reservoir: Implications for a threatened coldwater specialist

Evaluations of resource use among native piscivores in natural lakes have consistently documented significant partitioning that supports coexistence. Partitioning may be less prominent in reservoirs where water-level fluctuations can compress habitat and trophic diversity, but studies are lacking. Stable isotopes and bioenergetic models were used to quantify trophic interactions within a native piscivore assemblage inhabiting a temperate irrigation reservoir and explore implications for coexistence with a focus on threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ). As hypothesised, adult bull trout exhibited the greatest degree of trophic specialisation by consuming mostly coldwater pelagic forage fish, which were consumed seasonally by the more abundant burbot ( Lota lota ) and northern pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus oregonensis ). Numerous trophic niche overlap probabilities exceeded 70%, were as high as 93% and greatest between bull trout and burbot. Bioenergetics simulations demonstrated the high seasonal consumption capacity of burbot relative to northern pikeminnow. As a result, threefold to fourfold fewer burbot were required to consume the annual productivity of coldwater prey important for bull trout, particularly in the absence of small-bodied mesothermic or eurythermal fish as a buffer. Collectively, our analysis elucidated relatively strong trophic niche overlap among similarly sized piscivores, the importance of maintaining a diverse forage fish community for promoting coexistence and the greatest potential for competitive interactions between adult bull trout and burbot if key prey were limited or less diverse. More studies in regulated systems are needed to test for consistent patterns and identify mechanisms that limit or promote coexistence amid growing human-induced environmental change and demands on freshwater.

Washington↗
USGS2010

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2026

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗
USGS1998

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina

Ground-water levels, predevelopment ground-water flow, and stream-aquifer relations in the vicinity of the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site, Georgia and South Carolina, were evaluated as part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Energy, and Georgia Department of Natural Resources. As part of this evaluation: (1) ground-water-level fluctuations and trends in three aquifer systems in sediment of Cretaceous and Tertiary age were described and related to patterns of ground-water use and precipitations; (2) a conceptual model ofthe stream-aquifer flow system was developed; (3) the predevelopment ground-water flow system, configuration of potentiometric surfaces, trans-river flow, and recharge-discharge relations were described; and (4) stream-aquifer relations and the influence of river incision on ground-water flow and stream-aquifer relations were described. The 5,147-square mile study area is located in the northern part of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of Georgia and South Carolina. Coastal Plain sediments comprise three aquifer systems consisting of seven aquifers that are separated hydraulically by confining units. The aquifer systems are, in descending order: (1) the Floridan aquifer system—consisting of the Upper Three Runs and Gordon aquifers in sediments of Eocene age; (2) the Dublin aquifer system—consisting of the Millers Pond, upper Dublin, and lower Dublin aquifers in sediments of Paleocene-Late Cretaceous age; and (3) the Midville aquifer system—consisting of the upper Midville and lower Midville aquifers in sediments of Late Cretaceous age. The Upper Three Runs aquifer is the shallowest aquifer and is unconfined to semi-confined throughout most of the study area. Ground-water levels in the Upper Three Runs aquifer respond to a local flow system and are affected mostly by topography and climate. Ground-water flow in the deeper, Gordon aquifer and Dublin and Midville aquifer systems is characterized by local flow near outcrop areas to the north, changing to intermediate flow and then regional flow downdip (southeastward) as the aquifers become more deeply buried. Water levels in these deeper aquifers show a pronounced response to topography and climate in the vicinity of outcrops, and diminish southeastward where the aquifer is more deeply buried. Stream stage and pumpage affect ground-water levels in these deeper aquifers to varying degrees throughout the study area. The geologic characteristics of the Savannah River alluvial valley substantially control the configuration of potentiometric surfaces, ground-water-flow directions, and stream-aquifer relations. Data from 18 shallow borings indicate incision into each aquifer by the paleo Savannah River channel and subsequent infill of permeable alluvium, allowing for direct hydraulic connection between aquifers and the Savannah River along parts of its reach. This hydraulic connection may be the cause of large ground-water discharge to the river near Jackson, S.C., where the Gordon aquifer is in contact with Savannah River alluvium, and also the cause of lows or depressions formed in the potentiometric surfaces of confined aquifers that are in contact with the alluvium. Ground water in these aquifers flows toward the depressions. The influence of the river is diminished downstream where the aquifers are deeply buried, and upstream and downstream ground-water flow is possibly separated by a water divide or "saddle". Water-level data indicate that saddle features probably exist in the Gordon aquifer and Dublin aquifer system, and also might be present in the Midville aquifer system. Ground-water levels respond seasonally or in long term to changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumpage, and river stage. Continuous water-level data and water-levels measured in a network of 271 wells during the Spring (May) and Fall (October) in 1992, indicate that seasonal water-level changes generally are less than 4 feet, and that larger changes occur near supply wells. Long-term data (more than 10 years of record) from 283 wells indicate that water levels in most aquifers declined during some period prior to 1993. Although most declines were less than 15 feet and were limited to scattered areas influenced by supply wells, widespread declines of as much as 59 feet occurred in the lower Midville aquifer in Richmond County, Georgia. Water-level data at well-cluster sites indicate that in the vicinity of major ground-water divides, head decreases with depth; and in the vicinity of a regional drain, such as the Savannah River, head increases with depth. Although this vertical head distribution holds true over much of the study area, water-level data indicate that the Gordon, Millers Pond, and lower Dublin aquifers are apparent hydrologic "sinks" in parts of the study area, indicating a potential for vertical leakage from both above and below. Reasons for anomalously low heads in these three aquifers are unclear, but probably are related to: (1) subsurface pinchout of the aquifer, that influences flow patterns in the ground-water flow system, (2) hydraulic connection of the aquifer to river alluvium and associated large ground-water discharge, or (3) water-level declines as a result of pumpage. Estimated average ground-water discharge to the Savannah River based on data from 1941, 1942, and 1949, was 1,220 cubic feet per second; of which 46 percent was from the local flow system, 41 percent was from the intermediate flow system, and 13 percent was from the regional flow system. Estimated ground-water discharge during the 1954 and 1986 droughts indicates that the contribution from the intermediate flow system decreased in a downstream direction, and that most ground-water discharge was from the local flow system. The decreased contribution from the intermediate flow system in downstream reaches may be related to a downdip (downstream) thickening of confining units underlying the stream, that reduces upward leakage of water. Flow lines based on contours of the estimated predevelopment potentiometric surface of the confined Dublin and Midville aquifer systems, suggest ground-water flow beneath the floodplain of the Savannah River from one side of the river to the other side. This phenomenon, termed trans-river flow, is assumed to occur for a short distance into Georgia prior to discharge into the Savannah River alluvial valley. Trans-river flow is influenced by changes in hydraulic gradient (ground-water levels) near the river. Trans-river flow cannot be inferred from contours of the potentiometric surface of the Gordon or Upper Three Runs aquifers.

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