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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Climatic variation and the distribution of an amphibian polyploid complex

1. The establishment of polyploid populations involves the persistence and growth of the polyploid in the presence of the progenitor species. Although there have been a number of animal polyploid species documented, relatively few inquiries have been made into the large-scale mechanisms of polyploid establishment in animal groups. Herein we investigate the influence of regional climatic conditions on the distributional patterns of a diploid-tetraploid species pair of gray treefrogs, Hyla chrysoscelis and H. versicolor (Anura: Hylidae) in the mid-Atlantic region of eastern North America. 2. Calling surveys at breeding sites were used to document the distribution of each species. Twelve climatic models and one elevation model were generated to predict climatic and elevation values for gray treefrog breeding sites. A canonical analysis of discriminants was used to describe relationships between climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of H. chrysoscelis and H. versicolor . 3. There was a strong correlation between several climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of the gray treefrog complex. Specifically, the tetraploid species almost exclusively occupied areas of higher elevation, where climatic conditions were relatively severe (colder, drier, greater annual variation). In contrast, the diploid species was restricted to lower elevations, where climatic conditions were warmer, wetter and exhibited less annual variation. 4. Clusters of syntopic sites were associated with areas of high variation in annual temperature and precipitation during the breeding season. 5. Our data suggest that large-scale climatic conditions have played a role in the establishment of the polyploid H. versicolor in at least some portions of its range. The occurrence of the polyploid and absence of the progenitor in colder, drier and more varied environments suggests the polyploid may posses a tolerance of severe environmental conditions that is not possessed by the diploid progenitor. 6. Our findings support the hypothesis that increased tolerance to severe environmental conditions is a plausible mechanism of polyploid establishment.

Maryland, Virginia↗
USGS2008

A quantile count model of water depth constraints on Cape Sable seaside sparrows

1. A quantile regression model for counts of breeding Cape Sable seaside sparrows Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis (L.) as a function of water depth and previous year abundance was developed based on extensive surveys, 1992-2005, in the Florida Everglades. The quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, providing a flexible alternative to discrete parametric distributional models, e.g. Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts. 2. Estimates from our multiplicative model demonstrated that negative effects of increasing water depth in breeding habitat on sparrow numbers were dependent on recent occupation history. Upper 10th percentiles of counts (one to three sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth from 0 to 30 cm when sites were not occupied in previous years. However, upper 40th percentiles of counts (one to six sparrows) decreased with increasing water depth for sites occupied in previous years. 3. Greatest decreases (-50% to -83%) in upper quantiles of sparrow counts occurred as water depths increased from 0 to 15 cm when previous year counts were 1, but a small proportion of sites (5-10%) held at least one sparrow even as water depths increased to 20 or 30 cm. 4. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model provided estimates of conditional means that also decreased with increasing water depth but rates of change were lower and decreased with increasing previous year counts compared to the quantile count model. Quantiles computed for the zero-inflated Poisson model enhanced interpretation of this model but had greater lack-of-fit for water depths > 0 cm and previous year counts 1, conditions where the negative effect of water depths were readily apparent and fitted better with the quantile count model.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2008

Fidelity and breeding probability related to population density and individual quality in black brent geese Branta bernicla nigricans

1. Patterns of temporary emigration (associated with non-breeding) are important components of variation in individual quality. Permanent emigration from the natal area has important implications for both individual fitness and local population dynamics. 2. We estimated both permanent and temporary emigration of black brent geese (Branta bernicla nigricans Lawrence) from the Tutakoke River colony, using observations of marked brent geese on breeding and wintering areas, and recoveries of ringed individuals by hunters. We used the likelihood developed by Lindberg, Kendall, Hines & Anderson 2001 (Combining band recovery data and Pollock's robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration. Biometrics, 57, 273-281) to assess hypotheses and estimate parameters. 3. Temporary emigration (the converse of breeding) varied among age classes up to age 5, and differed between individuals that bred in the previous years vs. those that did not. Consistent with the hypothesis of variation in individual quality, individuals with a higher probability of breeding in one year also had a higher probability of breeding the next year. 4. Natal fidelity of females ranged from 0.70 ?? 0.07-0.96 ?? 0.18 and averaged 0.83. In contrast to Lindberg et al. (1998), we did not detect a relationship between fidelity and local population density. Natal fidelity was negatively correlated with first-year survival, suggesting that competition among individuals of the same age for breeding territories influenced dispersal. Once females nested at the Tutakoke River, colony breeding fidelity was 1.0. 5. Our analyses show substantial variation in individual quality associated with fitness, which other analyses suggest is strongly influenced by early environment. Our analyses also suggest substantial interchange among breeding colonies of brent geese, as first shown by Lindberg et al. (1998).

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2008

Trade-offs of predation and foraging explain sexual segregation in African buffalo

1. Many studies have investigated why males and females segregate spatially in sexually dimorphic species. These studies have focused primarily on temperate zone ungulates in areas lacking intact predator communities, and few have directly assessed predation rates in different social environments. 2. Data on the movement, social affiliation, mortality and foraging of radio-collared African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) were collected from 2001-06 in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. 3. The vast majority of mortality events were due to lion (Panthera leo) predation, and the mortality hazard associated with being an adult male buffalo in a male-only 'bachelor' group was almost four times higher than for adult females in mixed herds. The mortality rates of adult males and females within mixed herds were not statistically different. Mortality sites of male and female buffalo were in areas of low visibility similar to those used by bachelor groups, while mixed herds tended to use more open habitats. 4. Males in bachelor groups ate similar or higher quality food (as indexed by percentage faecal nitrogen), and moved almost a third less distance per day compared with mixed herds. As a result, males in bachelor groups gained more body condition than did males in breeding herds. 5. Recent comparative analyses suggest the activity-budget hypothesis as a common underlying cause of social segregation. However, our intensive study, in an area with an intact predator community showed that male and female buffalo segregated by habitat and supported the predation-risk hypothesis. Male African buffalo appear to trade increased predation risk for additional energy gains in bachelor groups, which presumably leads to increased reproductive success. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2008

Flower power: Tree flowering phenology as a settlement cue for migrating birds

1. Neotropical migrant birds show a clear preference for stopover habitats with ample food supplies; yet, the proximate cues underlying these decisions remain unclear. 2. For insectivorous migrants, cues associated with vegetative phenology (e.g. flowering, leaf flush, and leaf loss) may reliably predict the availability of herbivorous arthropods. Here we examined whether migrants use the phenology of five tree species to choose stopover locations, and whether phenology accurately predicts food availability. 3. Using a combination of experimental and observational evidence, we show migrant populations closely track tree phenology, particularly the flowering phenology of honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), and preferentially forage in trees with more flowers. Furthermore, the flowering phenology of honey mesquite reliably predicts overall arthropod abundance as well as the arthropods preferred by migrants for food. 4. Together, these results suggest that honey mesquite flowering phenology is an important cue used by migrants to assess food availability quickly and reliably, while in transit during spring migration. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2009

Survival and breeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice

1. Observed and predicted declines in Arctic sea ice have raised concerns about marine mammals. In May 2008, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed polar bears (Ursus maritimus) - one of the most ice-dependent marine mammals - as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act. 2. We evaluated the effects of sea ice conditions on vital rates (survival and breeding probabilities) for polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea. Although sea ice declines in this and other regions of the polar basin have been among the greatest in the Arctic, to date population-level effects of sea ice loss on polar bears have only been identified in western Hudson Bay, near the southern limit of the species' range. 3. We estimated vital rates using multistate capture-recapture models that classified individuals by sex, age and reproductive category. We used multimodel inference to evaluate a range of statistical models, all of which were structurally based on the polar bear life cycle. We estimated parameters by model averaging, and developed a parametric bootstrap procedure to quantify parameter uncertainty. 4. In the most supported models, polar bear survival declined with an increasing number of days per year that waters over the continental shelf were ice free. In 2001-2003, the ice-free period was relatively short (mean 101 days) and adult female survival was high (0 ∙ 96-0 ∙ 99, depending on reproductive state). In 2004 and 2005, the ice-free period was longer (mean 135 days) and adult female survival was low (0 ∙ 73-0 ∙ 79, depending on reproductive state). Breeding rates and cub litter survival also declined with increasing duration of the ice-free period. Confidence intervals on vital rate estimates were wide. 5. The effects of sea ice loss on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea may apply to polar bear populations in other portions of the polar basin that have similar sea ice dynamics and have experienced similar, or more severe, sea ice declines. Our findings therefore are relevant to the extinction risk facing approximately one-third of the world's polar bears.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2010

Feedbacks between community assembly and habitat selection shape variation in local colonization

1. Non-consumptive effects of predators are increasingly recognized as important drivers of community assembly and structure. Specifically, habitat selection responses to top predators during colonization and oviposition can lead to large differences in aquatic community structure, composition and diversity. 2. These differences among communities due to predators may develop as communities assemble, potentially altering the relative quality of predator vs. predator-free habitats through time. If so, community assembly would be expected to modify the subsequent behavioural responses of colonists to habitats containing top predators. Here, we test this hypothesis by manipulating community assembly and the presence of fish in experimental ponds and measuring their independent and combined effects on patterns of colonization by insects and amphibians. 3. Assembly modified habitat selection of dytscid beetles and hylid frogs by decreasing or even reversing avoidance of pools containing blue-spotted sunfish (Enneacanthus gloriosus). However, not all habitat selection responses to fish depended on assembly history. Hydrophilid beetles and mosquitoes avoided fish while chironomids were attracted to fish pools, regardless of assembly history. 4. Our results show that community assembly causes taxa-dependent feedbacks that can modify avoidance of habitats containing a top predator. Thus, non-consumptive effects of a top predator on community structure change as communities assemble and effects of competitors and other predators combine with the direct effects of top predators to shape colonization. 5. This work reinforces the importance of habitat selection for community assembly in aquatic systems, while illustrating the range of factors that may influence colonization rates and resulting community structure. Directly manipulating communities both during colonization and post-colonization is critical for elucidating how sequential processes interact to shape communities.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2010

Match or mismatch: The influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch , however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within theYOYage cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology . This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2010

Can selection on nest size from nest predation explain the latitudinal gradient in clutch size?

1. Latitudinal variation in clutch sizes of birds is a well described, but poorly understood pattern. Many hypotheses have been proposed, but few have been experimentally tested, and none have been universally accepted by researchers. 2. The nest size hypothesis posits that higher nest predation in the tropics favours selection for smaller nests and thereby constrains clutch size by shrinking available space for eggs and/or nestlings in the nest. We tested this hypothesis with an experiment in a tropical forest and a comparative study between temperate and tropical field sites. 3. Specifically, we tested if: (i) predation increased with nest size; (ii) tropical birds had smaller nests controlled for body size; and (iii) clutch size was explained by nest size controlled for body size. 4. Experimental swapping of nests of different sizes showed that nest predation increased with nest size in the tropical site. Moreover, nest predation rates were higher in species with larger nests in both sites. However, nest size, corrected for body mass and phylogeny, did not differ between sites and was not related to clutch size between sites. 5. Hence, nest predation can exert selection on nest size as predicted by the hypothesis. Nest size increased with adult body mass, such that adult size might indirectly influence reproductive success through effects on nest size and nest predation risk. Ultimately, however, selection from nest predation on nest size does not explain the smaller clutch sizes typical of the tropics.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2011

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

1. Life‐history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern‐most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known‐age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark–recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate’s sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long‐term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life‐history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top‐ and middle‐trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2012

Joint estimation of habitat dynamics and species interactions: Disturbance reduces co-occurrence of non-native predators with an endangered toad

1. Ecologists have long been interested in the processes that determine patterns of species occurrence and co-occurrence. Potential short-comings of many existing empirical approaches that address these questions include a reliance on patterns of occurrence at a single time point, failure to account properly for imperfect detection and treating the environment as a static variable. 2. We fit detection and non-detection data collected from repeat visits using a dynamic site occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for the temporal dynamics of a focal prey species, its predators and its habitat. Our objective was to determine how disturbance and species interactions affect the co-occurrence probabilities of an endangered toad and recently introduced non-native predators in stream breeding habitats. For this, we determined statistical support for alternative processes that could affect co-occurrence frequency in the system. 3. We collected occurrence data at stream segments in two watersheds where streams were largely ephemeral and one watershed dominated by perennial streams. Co-occurrence probabilities of toads with non-native predators were related to disturbance frequency, with low co-occurrence in the ephemeral watershed and high co-occurrence in the perennial watershed. This occurred because once predators were established at a site, they were rarely lost from the site except in cases when the site dried out. Once dry sites became suitable again, toads colonized them much more rapidly than predators, creating a period of predator-free space. 4. We attribute the dynamics to a storage effect, where toads persisting outside the stream environment during periods of drought rapidly colonized sites when they become suitable again. Our results support that even in highly connected stream networks, temporal disturbance can structure frequencies with which breeding amphibians encounter non-native predators. 5. Dynamic multi-state occupancy models are a powerful tool for rigorously examining hypotheses about inter-species and species–habitat interactions. In contrast to previous methods that infer dynamic processes based on static patterns in occupancy, the approach we took allows the dynamic processes that determine species–species and species–habitat interactions to be directly estimated.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2003

Soil seed banks and the potential restoration of forested wetlands after farming

1 Changes in farming practice provide an opportunity to restore once extensive forested wetlands on agricultural land. In some parts of the world, however, it has proved difficult to restore the full complement of plant species through natural regeneration. Similarly, the restoration of forested wetlands by replanting has often resulted in ecosystems of low diversity. Better methods of restoring these important ecosystems are now required and baldcypress swamps provide an opportunity to investigate alternative approaches to the restoration of forested wetlands. This study examined the composition of seed banks of farmed fields to determine their value in restoring swamps in the south-eastern United States. 2 A seed bank assay of soils from baldcypress swamps was conducted to determine the extent to which seeds are maintained during farming for various lengths of time. Soils from swamps that were farmed for 0–50 years were collected near the northern boundary of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley along the Cache River, Illinois. Soils were placed in a glasshouse setting in flooded and freely drained conditions, and the numbers and species of seeds germinating were recorded. 3 Woody species including trees, shrubs, and vines were poorly represented in seed banks of both farmed and intact sites (51 and 9 sites, respectively). Missing dominants in the seed banks included tree species with short-lived seeds such as Taxodium distichum and Nyssa aquatica . Cephalanthus occidentalis constituted the most abundantly dispersed seed of all woody species. 4 Herbaceous species were well represented in the seed banks of both farmed and intact swamps (species richness of 207 vs. 173 species, respectively) suggesting that herbaceous species may live longer than woody species in seed banks. Few of the herbaceous species decreased in seed density in seed banks with time under cultivation, although seed density was lower at sites that had not been farmed. Species that relied on vegetative organs for dispersal were absent in the seed banks of farmed sites including Heteranthera dubia , Hottonia inflata , Lemna minor , Lemna trisulca and Wolffia columbiana . These species may require active reintroduction during restoration. 5 Synthesis and applications. Both restoration ecologists and managers of nature conservation areas need to be cognisant of seed bank and dispersal characteristics of species to effectively restore and manage forested wetlands. In the case of baldcypress swamps, critical components of the vegetation are not maintained in seed banks, which may make these floodplain wetlands difficult to restore via natural recolonization. Ultimately, the successful restoration of abandoned farm fields to forested wetlands may depend on the re-engineering of flood pulsing across landscapes to reconnect dispersal pathways.

Illinois↗
USGS2006

Shorebird roost-site selection at two temporal scales: Is human disturbance a factor?

1. Roost-site selection in shorebirds is governed by ambient factors, including environmental conditions and human disturbance. Determination of the extent to which these factors affect roost use and the associated implications for shorebird habitat protection is important for conservation strategies and informed management of human recreational use of these habitats. Shorebird conservation as a whole is a high priority world-wide because a large proportion of shorebird species is in decline. However, little is understood about the consistency of roost use by different species, what conditions affect species-specific roost-site selection, and at what spatial and temporal scales conditions influence selection. 2. We studied high-tide roost-site selection by eight species of non-breeding shorebirds on a critically important stopover and wintering refuge. We calculated spatial and temporal variability in roost use for each species based on counts and consistency of incidence. We then examined roost-site selection in relation to structural, environmental and human disturbance factors, and how this varied across spatial and temporal scales. 3. Most roosts were used less than 50% of the time, although larger roosts were used more consistently. This varied among species, with red knot Calidris canutus tending to concentrate at a few roosts and American oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus, dowitcher Limnodromus griseus and Limnodromus scolopaceus and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres more diffusely distributed among roosts. 4. At an annual scale, the principal factors affecting shorebird presence at roosts were roost length (size), local region, substrate and aspect. The extent and direction of these effects varied among species. Among years, red knots avoided roosts that had high average boat activity within 1000 m, but disturbance did not appear to be a factor for other species. 5. Daily roost use was influenced primarily by wind speed and the ability of roosts to provide shelter from the wind. Only dowitchers appeared to track daily disturbance, avoiding prospective roosts when boat activity within 100 m was high. 6. Synthesis and applications. Our findings emphasize the need to consider species-specific differences in temporal- and spatial-scale effects of roost-site selection factors, including human disturbance, when employing conservation measures for shorebirds. We suggest that conservation management should aim to provide a wide range of potential roosts (both natural and artificial) that could be used under different wind conditions and that are within reasonable travelling distance of preferred feeding areas. Roost use is often highly variable, and monitoring efforts must take this into account before making inferences about changes in use or selection of roost sites. ?? 2006 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Multiple-species analysis of point count data: A more parsimonious modelling framework

1. Although population surveys often provide information on multiple species, these data are rarely analysed within a multiple-species framework despite the potential for more efficient estimation of population parameters. 2. We have developed a multiple-species modelling framework that uses similarities in capture/detection processes among species to model multiple species data more parsimoniously. We present examples of this approach applied to distance, time of detection and multiple observer sampling for avian point count data. 3. Models that included species as a covariate and individual species effects were generally selected as the best models for distance sampling, but group models without species effects performed best for the time of detection and multiple observer methods. Population estimates were more precise for no-species-effect models than for species-effect models, demonstrating the benefits of exploiting species' similarities when modelling multiple species data. Partial species-effect models and additive models were also useful because they modelled similarities among species while allowing for species differences. 4. Synthesis and applications. We recommend the adoption of multiple-species modelling because of its potential for improved population estimates. This framework will be particularly beneficial for modelling count data from rare species because information on the detection process can be 'borrowed' from more common species. The multiple-species modelling framework presented here is applicable to a wide range of sampling techniques and taxa. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Linking resources with demography to understand resource limitation for bears

1. Identifying the resources that limit growth of animal populations is essential for effective conservation; however, resource limitation is difficult to quantify. Recent advances in geographical information systems (GIS) and resource modelling can be combined with demographic modelling to yield insights into resource limitation. 2. Using long-term data on a population of black bears Ursus americanus, we evaluated competing hypotheses about whether availability of hard mast (acorns and nuts) or soft mast (fleshy fruits) limited bears in the southern Appalachians, USA, during 1981-2002. The effects of clearcutting on habitat quality were also evaluated. Annual survival, recruitment and population growth rate were estimated using capture-recapture data from 101 females. The availability of hard mast, soft mast and clearcuts was estimated with a GIS, as each changed through time as a result of harvest and succession, and then availabilities were incorporated as covariates for each demographic parameter. 3. The model with the additive availability of hard mast and soft mast across the landscape predicted survival and population growth rate. Availability of young clearcuts predicted recruitment, but not population growth or survival. 4. Availability of hard mast stands across the landscape and availability of soft mast across the landscape were more important than hard mast production and availability of soft mast in young clearcuts, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that older stands, which support high levels of hard mast and moderate levels of soft mast, should be maintained to sustain population growth of bears in the southern Appalachians. Simultaneously, the acreage of intermediate aged stands (10-25 years), which support very low levels of both hard mast and soft mast, should be minimized. The approach used in this study has broad application for wildlife management and conservation. State and federal wildlife agencies often possess long-term data on both resource availability and capture-recapture for wild populations. Combined, these two data types can be used to estimate survival, recruitment, population growth, elasticities of vital rates and the effects of resource availability on demographic parameters. Hence data that are traditionally used to understand population trends can be used to evaluate how and why demography changes over time. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Quantifying the impact of longline fisheries on adult survival in the black-footed albatross

1. Industrial longline fishing has been suspected to impact upon black-footed albatross populations Phoebastria nigripes by increasing mortality, but no precise estimates of bycatch mortality are available to ascertain this statement. We present a general framework for quantifying the relationship between albatross population and longline fishing in absence of reliable estimates of bycatch rate. 2. We analysed capture-recapture data of a population of black-footed albatross to obtain estimates of survival probability for this population using several alternative models to adequately take into account heterogeneity in the recapture process. Instead of trying to estimate the number of birds killed by using various extrapolations and unchecked assumptions, we investigate the potential relationship between annual adult survival and several measures of fishing effort. Although we considered a large number of covariates, we used principal component analysis to generate a few uncorrelated synthetic variables from the set and thus we maintained both power and robustness. 3. The average survival for 1997-2002 was 92%, a low value compared to estimates available for other albatross species. We found that one of the synthetic variables used to summarize industrial longline fishing significantly explained more than 40% of the variation in adult survival over 11 years, suggesting an impact by longline fishing on albatross' survival. 4. Our analysis provides some evidence of non-linear variation in survival with fishing effort. This could indicate that below a certain level of fishing effort, deaths due to incidental catch can be partially or totally compensated for by a decrease in natural mortality. Another possible explanation is the existence of a strong interspecific competition for accessing the baits, reducing the risk of being accidentally hooked. 5. Synthesis and applications . The suspicion of a significant impact of longline fishing on the black-footed albatross population was supported by the combination of a low estimate of adult survival for the study period, and a significant relationship between adult survival and a synthetic measure of fishing effort. This study highlights the sensitivity of the black-footed albatross to commercial longline fishing, and should exhort fishery management authorities to find adequate seabirds avoidance methods and to encourage their employment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah

1. Compared to bioclimatic variables, remote sensing predictors are rarely used for predictive species modelling. When used, the predictors represent typically habitat classifications or filters rather than gradual spectral, surface or biophysical properties. Consequently, the full potential of remotely sensed predictors for modelling the spatial distribution of species remains unexplored. Here we analysed the partial contributions of remotely sensed and climatic predictor sets to explain and predict the distribution of 19 tree species in Utah. We also tested how these partial contributions were related to characteristics such as successional types or species traits. 2. We developed two spatial predictor sets of remotely sensed and topo-climatic variables to explain the distribution of tree species. We used variation partitioning techniques applied to generalized linear models to explore the combined and partial predictive powers of the two predictor sets. Non-parametric tests were used to explore the relationships between the partial model contributions of both predictor sets and species characteristics. 3. More than 60% of the variation explained by the models represented contributions by one of the two partial predictor sets alone, with topo-climatic variables outperforming the remotely sensed predictors. However, the partial models derived from only remotely sensed predictors still provided high model accuracies, indicating a significant correlation between climate and remote sensing variables. The overall accuracy of the models was high, but small sample sizes had a strong effect on cross-validated accuracies for rare species. 4. Models of early successional and broadleaf species benefited significantly more from adding remotely sensed predictors than did late seral and needleleaf species. The core-satellite species types differed significantly with respect to overall model accuracies. Models of satellite and urban species, both with low prevalence, benefited more from use of remotely sensed predictors than did the more frequent core species. 5. Synthesis and applications. If carefully prepared, remotely sensed variables are useful additional predictors for the spatial distribution of trees. Major improvements resulted for deciduous, early successional, satellite and rare species. The ability to improve model accuracy for species having markedly different life history strategies is a crucial step for assessing effects of global change. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2007

Using conservation value to assess land restoration and management alternatives across a degraded oak savanna landscape

1. Managers considering restoration of landscapes often face a fundamental challenge - what should be the habitat composition of the restored landscape? We present a method for evaluating an important conservation trade-off inherent in making that decision. 2. Oak savannas and grasslands were historically widespread across central North America but are now rare. Today, in north-west Indiana, USA, habitats spanning a range of woody vegetation density, from nearly treeless open habitats to forests, occur across the conserved landscape where savannas probably once dominated. To understand the benefits of different potential landscape compositions, we evaluated how different proportions of five habitats - open, savanna, woodland, scrub and forest - might affect the conservation value of the north-west Indiana landscape for birds. Two variables of potential conservation importance were examined: species diversity, a measure of avian community richness, and conservation index, the percentage of a bird species' global population occurring on a hectare of landscape, summed across all bird species present. Higher values of conservation index were associated with higher local densities of globally more rare and more threatened species. 3. Conservation index and species diversity were correlated negatively across hypothetical landscapes composed of different proportions of the five habitats. Therefore, a management trade-off existed between conservation index and species diversity because landscapes that maximized species diversity differed from landscapes that maximized conservation index. 4. A landscape of 50% open, 22% savanna, 15% scrub and 13% forest was predicted to represent a compromise at which conservation index and species diversity reached the same percentage of their maxima. In contrast, the current landscape is dominated by forest. 5. Synthesis and applications. We quantified the trade-off between two potential aspects of a landscape's conservation value for birds - the landscape's ability to promote avian species diversity and the landscape's use by threatened avian species. This quantification allowed us to evaluate the ability of different landscape compositions to achieve preferable trade-off compromises, such as maximizing diversity for a given level of landscape use by threatened species. Managers can use these trade-off results to determine which landscape compositions are associated with particular conservation and management priorities.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗