SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Journal of Basin Research”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Reflected and mode-converted seismic waves within the shallow Aleutian subduction zone, southern Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Pronounced secondary phases observed in local recordings of quarry shots and earthquakes on the southern Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, are identified as reflected P and S and converted S-to-P phases originating within four depth ranges: in the upper few kilometers of the Cook Inlet Tertiary basin, at midcrustal depths within the overthrust North American plate, at about 35 km depth near the top of the Wadati-Benioff seismic zone in proximity to the inferred interplate megathrust, and at about 5–10 km below the megathrust in the subducted Pacific plate. Beneath the landward margin of the accreted Chugach terrane, the mid-upper plate (MUP) discontinuity dips as steeply as 20°–30° to the west-northwest over the depth range 12–18 km. At shallower depths it flattens and possibly arches with the crest at about 10 km depth. Similar midcrustal reflectors have been imaged about 125 km to the southwest and about 350 km to the northeast along the structural trend of the Chugach terrane. The extensive reflectors may have a common origin, possible caused by the presence of underplated rocks. Relative amplitudes and polarities of the secondary phases originating at MUP depths provide few constraints on the nature of the discontinuity. It appears that the MUP discontinuity is seismically inactive and does not represent a brittle-ductile transition zone within the upper plate. The two converted S -to- P phases generated near the top of the subducted plate could indicate a low-velocity zone associated with subducted oceanic crust.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2009

Development of a local-scale urban stream assessment method using benthic macroinvertebrates: An example from the Santa Clara Basin, California

Research that explores the biological response to urbanization on a site-specific scale is necessary for management of urban basins. Recent studies have proposed a method to characterize the biological response of benthic macroinvertebrates along an urban gradient for several climatic regions in the USA. Our study demonstrates how this general framework can be refined and applied on a smaller scale to an urbanized basin, the Santa Clara Basin (surrounding San Jose, California, USA). Eighty-four sampling sites on 14 streams in the Santa Clara Basin were used for assessing local stream conditions. First, an urban index composed of human population density, road density, and urban land cover was used to determine the extent of urbanization upstream from each sampling site. Second, a multimetric biological index was developed to characterize the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages along the urban gradient. The resulting biological index included metrics from 3 ecological categories: taxonomic composition ( Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera), functional feeding group (shredder richness), and habit ( clingers). The 90 th -quantile regression line was used to define the best available biological conditions along the urban gradient, which we define as the predicted biological potential. This descriptor was then used to determine the relative condition of sites throughout the basin. Hierarchical partitioning of variance revealed that several site-specific variables (dissolved O 2 and temperature) were significantly related to a site's deviation from its predicted biological potential. Spatial analysis of each site's deviation from its biological potential indicated geographic heterogeneity in the distribution of impaired sites. The presence and operation of local dams optimize water use, but modify natural flow regimes, which in turn influence stream habitat, dissolved O 2 , and temperature. Current dissolved O 2 and temperature regimes deviate from natural conditions and appear to affect benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages. The assessment methods presented in our study provide finer-scale assessment tools for managers in urban basins. ?? North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗

USGS2025

Estuarine exchange flow in the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system

Estuarine exchange flow controls the salt balance and regulates biogeochemistry in an estuary. The Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine system (APES) is the largest coastal lagoon in the U.S. and historically susceptible to a series of environmental issues including salt water intrusion and eutrophication, yet its estuarine exchange flow is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the estuarine exchange flow in the APES, its tributary estuaries (Pamlico and Neuse), and sub-basin Albemarle Sound using the total exchange flow analysis framework based on results from a deterministic numerical model. We find the following: (a) Dynamics controlling estuarine exchange flow in the APES vary spatially and depend on timescales considered. At inlets, estuarine exchange flows respond to both tidal prism and residual water levels at weather-to-spring/neap timescales. At a long quasi-steady timescale represented as annual means, estuarine exchange flow is dominated by barotropic flow. Within the tributary estuaries, estuarine exchange flows at timescales of wind periods are controlled by wind-induced straining, whereas the quasi-steady state condition is dominated by gravitational circulation. At Albemarle Sound, exchange flow is dominated by the residual water levels at weather-to-spring/neap timescales, while at quasi-steady state it is controlled by barotropic flow. (b) At the quasi-steady annual timescale, the salt content decreases with river discharge. At the weather-to-spring/neap timescales, salt content is insensitive to variations in estuarine exchange flow, except for within Albemarle Sound. (c) Estuarine exchange flow likely influences the biogeochemistry of the APES by playing a key role in regulating the flushing efficiency and material exchange, a role that has been previously overlooked.

North Carolina↗

USGS2016

Hydrologic connectivity: Quantitative assessments of hydrologic-enforced drainage structures in an elevation model

Elevation data derived from light detection and ranging present challenges for hydrologic modeling as the elevation surface includes bridge decks and elevated road features overlaying culvert drainage structures. In reality, water is carried through these structures; however, in the elevation surface these features impede modeled overland surface flow. Thus, a hydrologically-enforced elevation surface is needed for hydrodynamic modeling. In the Delaware River Basin, hydrologic-enforcement techniques were used to modify elevations to simulate how constructed drainage structures allow overland surface flow. By calculating residuals between unfilled and filled elevation surfaces, artificially pooled depressions that formed upstream of constructed drainage structure features were defined, and elevation values were adjusted by generating transects at the location of the drainage structures. An assessment of each hydrologically-enforced drainage structure was conducted using field-surveyed culvert and bridge coordinates obtained from numerous public agencies, but it was discovered the disparate drainage structure datasets were not comprehensive enough to assess all remotely located depressions in need of hydrologic-enforcement. Alternatively, orthoimagery was interpreted to define drainage structures near each depression, and these locations were used as reference points for a quantitative hydrologic-enforcement assessment. The orthoimagery-interpreted reference points resulted in a larger corresponding sample size than the assessment between hydrologic-enforced transects and field-surveyed data. This assessment demonstrates the viability of rules-based hydrologic-enforcement that is needed to achieve hydrologic connectivity, which is valuable for hydrodynamic models in sensitive coastal regions. Hydrologic-enforced elevation data are also essential for merging with topographic/bathymetric elevation data that extend over vulnerable urbanized areas and dynamic coastal regions.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2000

Mercury in Long Island Sound sediments

Mercury (Hg) concentrations were measured in 394 surface and core samples from Long Island Sound (LIS). The surface sediment Hg concentration data show a wide spread, ranging from <50 ppb Hg in eastern LIS to >600 ppb Hg in westernmost LIS. Part of the observed range is related to variations in the bottom sedimentary environments, with higher Hg concentrations in the muddy depositional areas of central and western LIS. A strong residual trend of higher Hg values to the west remains when the data are normalized to grain size. Relationships between a tracer for sewage effluents (C. perfringens) and Hg concentrations indicate that between 0-50 % of the Hg is derived from sewage sources for most samples from the western and central basins. A higher percentage of sewage-derived Hg is found in samples from the westernmost section of LIS and in some local spots near urban centers. The remainder of the Hg is carried into the Sound with contaminated sediments from the watersheds and a small fraction enters the Sound as in situ atmospheric deposition. The Hg-depth profiles of several cores have well-defined contamination profiles that extend to pre-industrial background values. These data indicate that the Hg levels in the Sound have increased by a factor of 5-6 over the last few centuries, but Hg levels in LIS sediments have declined in modern times by up to 30 %. The concentrations of C. perfringens increased exponentially in the top core sections which had declining Hg concentrations, suggesting a recent decline in Hg fluxes that are unrelated to sewage effluents. The observed spatial and historical trends show Hg fluxes to LIS from sewage effluents, contaminated sediment input from the Connecticut River, point source inputs of strongly contaminated sediment from the Housatonic River, variations in the abundance of Hg carrier phases such as TOC and Fe, and focusing of sediment-bound Hg in association with westward sediment transport within the Sound.

Connecticut;New York↗

USGS2000

Bottom currents and sediment transport in Long Island Sound: A modeling study

A high resolution (300-400 m grid spacing), process oriented modeling study was undertaken to elucidate the physical processes affecting the characteristics and distribution of sea-floor sedimentary environments in Long Island Sound. Simulations using idealized forcing and high-resolution bathymetry were performed using a three-dimensional circulation model ECOM (Blumberg and Mellor, 1987) and a stationary shallow water wave model HISWA (Holthuijsen et al., 1989). The relative contributions of tide-, density-, wind- and wave-driven bottom currents are assessed and related to observed characteristics of the sea-floor environments, and simple bedload sediment transport simulations are performed. The fine grid spacing allows features with scales of several kilometers to be resolved. The simulations clearly show physical processes that affect the observed sea-floor characteristics at both regional and local scales. Simulations of near-bottom tidal currents reveal a strong gradient in the funnel-shaped eastern part of the Sound, which parallels an observed gradient in sedimentary environments from erosion or nondeposition, through bedload transport and sediment sorting, to fine-grained deposition. A simulation of estuarine flow driven by the along-axis gradient in salinity shows generally westward bottom currents of 2-4 cm/s that are locally enhanced to 6-8 cm/s along the axial depression of the Sound. Bottom wind-driven currents flow downwind along the shallow margins of the basin, but flow against the wind in the deeper regions. These bottom flows (in opposition to the wind) are strongest in the axial depression and add to the estuarine flow when winds are from the west. The combination of enhanced bottom currents due to both estuarine circulation and the prevailing westerly winds provide an explanation for the relatively coarse sediments found along parts of the axial depression. Climatological simulations of wave-driven bottom currents show that frequent high-energy events occur along the shallow margins of the Sound, explaining the occurrence of relatively coarse sediments in these regions. Bedload sediment transport calculations show that the estuarine circulation coupled with the oscillatory tidal currents result in a net westward transport of sand in much of the eastern Sound. Local departures from this regional westward trend occur around topographic and shoreline irregularities, and there is strong predicted convergence of bedload transport over most of the large, linear sand ridges in the eastern Sound, providing a mechanism which prevents their decay. The strong correlation between the near-bottom current intensity based on the model results and the sediment response, as indicated by the distribution of sedimentary environments, provides a framework for predicting the long-term effects of anthropogenic activities.

New York↗

USGS2007

Hydrogeologic controls imposed by mechanical stratigraphy in layered rocks of the Chateauguay River Basin, a U.S.-Canada transborder aquifer

[1] The Châteauguay River Basin delineates a transborder watershed with roughly half of its surface area located in northern New York State and half in southern Québec Province, Canada. As part of a multidisciplinary study designed to characterize the hydrogeologic properties of this basin, geophysical logs were obtained in 12 wells strategically located to penetrate the four major sedimentary rock formations that constitute the regional aquifers. The layered rocks were classified according to their elastic properties into three primary units: soft sandstone, hard sandstone, and dolostone. Downhole measurements were analyzed to identify fracture patterns associated with each unit and to evaluate their role in controlling groundwater flow. Fracture networks are composed of orthogonal sets of laterally extensive, subhorizontal bedding plane partings and bed-delimited, subvertical joints with spacings that are consistent with rock mechanics principles and stress models. The vertical distribution of transmissive zones is confined to a few select bedding plane fractures, with soft sandstone having the fewest (one per 70-m depth) and hard sandstone the most (five per 70-m depth). Bed-normal permeability is examined using a probabilistic model that considers the lengths of flow paths winding along joints and bedding plane fractures. Soft sandstone has the smallest bed-normal permeability primarily because of its wide, geomechanically undersaturated joint spacing. Results indicate that the three formations have similar values of bulk transmissivity, within roughly an order of magnitude, but that each rock unit has its own unique system of groundwater flow paths that constitute that transmissivity.

Chateauguay River Basin↗

USGS2022

Quantifying interdependencies in geyser eruptions at the Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

The Upper Geyser Basin at Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) harbors the greatest concentration of geysers worldwide. Research suggests that individual geysers are not isolated but rather are hydraulically connected in the subsurface with other geysers and thermal springs. To quantify such connections, we combined techniques from machine learning, causal inference, and dynamical systems to characterize the collective eruptive behavior of a set of 10 geysers over 18 months (April 2007 – September 2008) focusing on geyser-geyser interactions. Model predictions were up to 15 times more accurate when we sought to predict a geyser's eruption time series based on outflow channel temperatures from the network than based on its own time series alone, suggesting the existence of a complex interconnected subsurface groundwater system. On average, cone-type geysers had larger impacts on other geysers than did fountain-type geysers. Similarly, cone-type geysers were on average more insulated from other geysers. However, substantial unexplained variation remained after considering the cone versus fountain dichotomy. Distance between geysers also affected interactions: nearby geysers had stronger effects on focal geysers than did geysers located farther away. Collectively, results support the hypothesis of geyser interdependence at timescales of 5 min–10 days. Our analyses highlight the existence of quantifiable geyser-to-geyser interactions that can be resolved through pairwise and system-level analyses. These findings emphasize the subsurface interconnectedness of thermal features, provide information relevant to visitor experiences in Yellowstone National Park, and suggest strategies for exploring patterns of interdependence that may exist among other episodic geological phenomena.

Wyoming↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Acute toxicity of the lampricides TFM and niclosamide: Effects on a vascular plant and a chironomid species

The lampricides 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM) and niclosamide have been used for about 60 years to control sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes Basin and Lake Champlain. To register these chemicals as pesticides in North America, their environmental effects must be reviewed on a periodic basis. As a part of this effort, toxicity of TFM and niclosamide to duckweed (Lemna gibba), and of niclosamide to aquatic midge (Chironomus tentans), was assessed. Results of these studies suggest that for both lampricides, the no-observable and lowest observable effects concentrations (NOEC and LOEC) exceed expected environmental concentrations, with effects only in the highest concentrations tested and the longest exposure times. Duckweed exposed to TFM indicated 7-day LOECs ≥ 4.88 mg/L for average specific growth rate and yield, with the EC50 > 9.74 mg/L. For duckweed exposed to niclosamide, 7-day LOECs for average specific growth rate and yield ranged from 0.271 to 0.569 mg/L, with the IC50 0.725 mg/L or greater depending on the parameter measured. For midge larvae exposed to niclosamide-dosed sediment, the LOEC values based on survival and growth were 26.2 mg/kg and > 82.1 mg/kg, respectively, and the EC50 based on survival was 49.6 mg/kg. Based on these data, deleterious effects on aquatic plants and benthic invertebrates are unlikely to result from use of TFM and niclosamide for lamprey control, given that the effect concentrations are in excess of the expected environmental concentrations.

Great Lakes Basin, Lake Champlain↗

USGS2003

Rheology of the lithosphere inferred from postseismic uplift following the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake

We have modeled the broad postseismic uplift measured by geodetic leveling in the epicentral area of the 1959 Mw = 7.3 Hebgen Lake, Montana earthquake, a normal faulting event in the northern Basin and Range province. To fit the observed uplift we calculate synthetic postseismic deformation using the relaxation response of a gravitational viscoelastic Earth to the earthquake. For a model with an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half-space, we find that the elastic thickness is 38 ?? 8 km, which isclose to the local crustal thickness. The half-space viscosity is estimated at 4 ?? 1018??0.5 Pa s. The leveling data do not require a viscous lower crust but permit a lower bound viscosity of 1020 Pa s. The observed broad uplift cannot be explained by physically plausible afterslip on and below the coseismic fault. However, local deformation across the coseismic surface rupture requires shallow afterslip reaching the surface. The postseismic deformation induced by the estimated viscoelastic structure decays exponentially with a time constant of ???15 years. Because of coupling between the elastic layer and the viscoelastic substrate, this relaxation time is significantly longer than the 2 year Maxwell relaxation time of the viscous half-space itself. Our result suggests the importance of postseismic relaxation in interpreting high-precision global positioning system velocities. For example, our model results suggest that postseismic transient velocities from both the 1959 Hebgen Lake and the 1983 Mw = 6.9 Borah Peak earthquakes are currently as large as 1-2 mm/yr.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2006

One-way coupling of an atmospheric and a hydrologic model in Colorado

This paper examines the accuracy of high-resolution nested mesoscale model simulations of surface climate. The nesting capabilities of the atmospheric fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) were used to create high-resolution, 5-yr climate simulations (from 1 October 1994 through 30 September 1999), starting with a coarse nest of 20 km for the western United States. During this 5-yr period, two finer-resolution nests (5 and 1.7 km) were run over the Yampa River basin in northwestern Colorado. Raw and bias-corrected daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature time series from the three MM5 nests were used as input to the U.S. Geological Survey's distributed hydrologic model [the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)] and were compared with PRMS results using measured climate station data. The distributed capabilities of PRMS were provided by partitioning the Yampa River basin into hydrologic response units (HRUs). In addition to the classic polygon method of HRU definition, HRUs for PRMS were defined based on the three MM5 nests. This resulted in 16 datasets being tested using PRMS. The input datasets were derived using measured station data and raw and bias-corrected MM5 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km output distributed to 1) polygon HRUs and 2) 20-, 5-, and 1.7-km-gridded HRUs, respectively. Each dataset was calibrated independently, using a multiobjective, stepwise automated procedure. Final results showed a general increase in the accuracy of simulated runoff with an increase in HRU resolution. In all steps of the calibration procedure, the station-based simulations of runoff showed higher accuracy than the MM5-based simulations, although the accuracy of MM5 simulations was close to station data for the high-resolution nests. Further work is warranted in identifying the causes of the biases in MM5 local climate simulations and developing methods to remove them. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗

USGS2007

Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by "center timing" (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1-4 decades or 4-8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5??. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between -2??C and -4??C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 in are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961-1990. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

USGS2003

Exploration and discovery in Yellowstone Lake: Results from high-resolution sonar imaging, seismic reflection profiling, and submersible studies

Discoveries from multi-beam sonar mapping and seismic reflection surveys of the northern, central, and West Thumb basins of Yellowstone Lake provide new insight into the extent of post-collapse volcanism and active hydrothermal processes occurring in a large lake environment above a large magma chamber. Yellowstone Lake has an irregular bottom covered with dozens of features directly related to hydrothermal, tectonic, volcanic, and sedimentary processes. Detailed bathymetric, seismic reflection, and magnetic evidence reveals that rhyolitic lava flows underlie much of Yellowstone Lake and exert fundamental control on lake bathymetry and localization of hydrothermal activity. Many previously unknown features have been identified and include over 250 hydrothermal vents, several very large (>500 m diameter) hydrothermal explosion craters, many small hydrothermal vent craters (∼1–200 m diameter), domed lacustrine sediments related to hydrothermal activity, elongate fissures cutting post-glacial sediments, siliceous hydrothermal spire structures, sublacustrine landslide deposits, submerged former shorelines, and a recently active graben. Sampling and observations with a submersible remotely operated vehicle confirm and extend our understanding of the identified features. Faults, fissures, hydrothermally inflated domal structures, hydrothermal explosion craters, and sublacustrine landslides constitute potentially significant geologic hazards. Toxic elements derived from hydrothermal processes also may significantly affect the Yellowstone ecosystem.

Wyoming↗

USGS2021

Widespread exposures of extensive clean shallow ice in the mid-latitudes of Mars

Although ice in the Martian midlatitudes is typically covered by a layer of dust or regolith, it is exposed in some locations by fresh impact craters or in erosional scarps. In both cases, the exposed ice is massive or excess ice with a low lithic content. We find that erosional scarps occur between 50° and 61° north and south latitude and that they are concentrated in and near Milankovič crater in the northern hemisphere and southeast of the Hellas basin in the southern hemisphere. These may represent locations of particularly thick or clean bodies of ice. Pits created by retreat of the scarps represent sublimation-thermokarst landforms that evolve in a manner distinct from other ice-loss landforms on Mars. New impact craters reveal that clean subsurface ice is widespread at middle- and high-latitudes in both hemispheres at depths less than 1 m. Both the depth to ice and the ice content appear to exhibit significant variability over tens to hundreds of meters. The lowest-latitude exposed ice is near 39°N and is at the edge of a region where impact exposures between 40° and 50°N are common, consistent with other indications of a high ice content. This lowest-latitude ice may be currently unstable and subliming. Impact craters on lineated valley fill excavate ice blocks that may represent the top of debris-covered glacial ice. Together, these landforms indicate widespread, clean subsurface ice at middle-latitudes on Mars. The distribution and properties of this ice could provide information about past climate conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

USGS2021

Testing hypotheses on signatures of precipitation variability in the river and floodplain deposits of the Paleogene San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA

Much progress has been made in recent years towards a set of recognition criteria for river discharge variability in river channel deposits, and thus sedimentary proxies for precipitation variability. Despite this progress, there is currently no consensus on how different styles of discharge variability are reflected in river sedimentary records, and whether variable-discharge river records from different climate types can be distinguished. Herein, river discharge and precipitation variability in the Paleogene is investigated using associations between river channel and floodplain deposits across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary from the Paleocene upper Nacimiento Formation and the early Eocene San Jose Formation in the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, USA. The succession is identified as deposits of variable-discharge river systems based on shared channel-deposit characteristics with modern and ancient variable-discharge river systems and the proposed facies models, in addition to alternations of poorly drained and well-drained floodplain deposits and/or slickensides indicating alternating wet-dry cycles. A long-term stratigraphic trend toward increasingly well-drained floodplain deposits is also observed and hypothesized to indicate successively more arid conditions from the Paleocene into the early Eocene. Comparisons with modern rivers from various climate zones suggest a long-term shift from a monsoonal climate in the Paleocene, to a fluctuating subhumid climate, ultimately leading to semiarid to arid conditions in the early Eocene. These observations suggest that floodplain deposits may be a better indicator of ambient climate, whereas channel deposits are records for frequency and magnitude of high-intensity precipitation events. Therefore, the existing facies models for variable-discharge rivers that consider only channel facies may not capture critical information needed to make accurate interpretations of paleoclimatic conditions. This study also adds to a growing body of evidence from geologic records of mid-latitude Paleogene river systems suggesting increases in the magnitude or variability of river discharge coinciding with established climate perturbations.

New Mexico↗

USGS2020

Distribution and abundance of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in relation to habitat characteristics at multiple spatial scales

The distribution and relative abundance of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (WCT) Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi in relation to habitat characteristics remain unknown across large portions of the species’ range. The goals of this research were to provide a foundational understanding of WCT distribution and relative abundance related to habitat characteristics in tributaries of the St. Maries River, Idaho—a highly altered watershed. The basin drains an area of approximately 1,863 km 2 and has a longitudinal elevation difference of about 207 m. Backpack electrofishing and habitat assessments were conducted at 68 reaches in 35 different tributaries of the St. Maries River in 2017 and 2018. Habitat was measured at small (reach-level) and large (watershed-level) scales. A total of 652 WCT was sampled from 52 of 68 total reaches. Habitat characteristics varied by age-class, but most WCT were estimated to be age 0 and age 1. Logistic regression models indicated that the presence of age-0 WCT was positively related to stream gradient and elevation, but negatively related to water temperature, road density, fine substrate, stream depth, and the presence of Brook Trout (BKT) Salvelinus fontinalis . The relative abundance of age-0 WCT was positively associated with road density and inversely related to wetted width, canopy cover, and elevation. The presence of age-1 and older (age-1+) WCT was positively related to gradient, canopy cover, and elevation, but negatively associated with road density, temperature, stream depth, and the presence of BKT. Relative abundance of age-1+WCT was positively associated with gradient, large substrate, canopy cover, and road density. Conversely, the relative abundance of age-1+WCT was inversely related to wetted width and elevation. This research indicates that WCT populations can persist in response to altered landscapes when suitable habitat exists. However, unmitigated threats, such as nonnative species competition (e.g., BKT), hybridization with Rainbow Trout O. mykiss , habitat loss, and habitat fragmentation, pose persistent complications to WCT abundance in locations where populations appear robust but their actual abundance is unknown.

Idaho↗

USGS2003

Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the western United States

This paper examines the hydrologic model performance in three snowmelt-dominated basins in the western United States to dynamically- and statistically downscaled output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NCEP). Runoff produced using a distributed hydrologic model is compared using daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature timeseries derived from the following sources: (1) NCEP output (horizontal grid spacing of approximately 210 km); (2) dynamically downscaled (DDS) NCEP output using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM2, horizontal grid spacing of approximately 52 km); (3) statistically downscaled (SDS) NCEP output; (4) spatially averaged measured data used to calibrate the hydrologic model (Best-Sta) and (5) spatially averaged measured data derived from stations located within the area of the RegCM2 model output used for each basin, but excluding Best-Sta set (All-Sta). In all three basins the SDS-based simulations of daily runoff were as good as runoff produced using the Best-Sta timeseries. The NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries were able to capture the gross aspects of the seasonal cycles of precipitation and temperature. However, in all three basins, the NCEP-, DDS-, and All-Sta-based simulations of runoff showed little skill on a daily basis. When the precipitation and temperature biases were corrected in the NCEP, DDS, and All-Sta timeseries, the accuracy of the daily runoff simulations improved dramatically, but, with the exception of the bias-corrected All-Sta data set, these simulations were never as accurate as the SDS-based simulations. This need for a bias correction may be somewhat troubling, but in the case of the large station-timeseries (All-Sta), the bias correction did indeed 'correct' for the change in scale. It is unknown if bias corrections to model output will be valid in a future climate. Future work is warranted to identify the causes for (and removal of) systematic biases in DDS simulations, and improve DDS simulations of daily variability in local climate. Until then, SDS based simulations of runoff appear to be the safer downscaling choice.

Journal of Hydrology↗