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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model accurately simulated streamflow at four of six uncalibrated sites within the basin. Overall, there was good agreement between simulated and measured seasonal and annual volumes throughout the basin for calibration and validation sites. The calibration period ranged from 0.2 to 20.8 percent difference, and the validation period ranged from 0.0 to 19.5 percent difference across all seasons and total annual runoff. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model tended to underestimate lower streamflows compared to the observed streamflow values. This is an indication that the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling model needs more detailed groundwater and storage information to properly model the low-flow conditions in the Cedar River Basin.

Iowa↗

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Wyoming, fiscal year 1978

This report contains lists of streamflow and reservoir stations, peak-flow partial-record stations, chemical-quality stations, sediment stations, and observation wells where water levels are measured in Wyoming. The locations of the basic-data sites are shown on maps. Thirty-two water-resources appraisal projects in Wyoming are also described, including many that are related to the development of energy resources. The general locations of the projects are shown on maps. The report serves as an annual progress report to cooperators and the public.

Wyoming↗

Estimating spatially and temporally varying recharge and runoff from precipitation and urban irrigation in the Los Angeles Basin, California

A daily precipitation-runoff model, referred to as the Los Angeles Basin watershed model (LABWM), was used to estimate recharge and runoff for a 5,047 square kilometer study area that included the greater Los Angeles area and all surface-water drainages potentially contributing recharge to a 1,450 square kilometer groundwater-study area underlying the greater Los Angeles area, referred to as the Los Angeles groundwater-study area. The recharge estimates for the Los Angeles groundwater-study area included spatially distributed recharge in response to the infiltration of precipitation, runoff, and urban irrigation, as well as mountain-front recharge from surface-water drainages bordering the groundwater-study area. The recharge and runoff estimates incorporated a new method for estimating urban irrigation, consisting of residential and commercial landscape watering, based on land use and the percentage of pervious land area. The LABWM used a 201.17-meter gridded discretization of the study area to represent spatially distributed climate and watershed characteristics affecting the surface and shallow sub-surface hydrology for the Los Angeles groundwater study area. Climate data from a local network of 201 monitoring sites and published maps of 30-year-average monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature were used to develop the climate inputs for the LABWM. Published maps of land use, land cover, soils, vegetation, and surficial geology were used to represent the physical characteristics of the LABWM area. The LABWM was calibrated to available streamflow records at six streamflow-gaging stations. Model results for a 100-year target-simulation period, from water years 1915 through 2014, were used to quantify and evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of water-budget components, including evapotranspiration (ET), recharge, and runoff. The largest outflow of water from the LABWM was ET; the 100-year average ET rate of 362 millimeters per year (mm/yr) accounted for 66 percent of the combined water inflow of 551 mm/yr, including 488 mm/yr from precipitation and 63 mm/yr from urban irrigation. The simulated ET rate varied from a minimum of 0 mm/yr for impervious areas to high values of more than 1,000 mm/yr for many areas, including the south-facing slopes of the San Gabriel Mountains, stream channels underlain by permeable soils and thick root zones, and pervious locations receiving inflows both from urban irrigation and surface water. Runoff was the next largest outflow, averaging 145 mm/yr for the 100-year period, or 26 percent of the combined precipitation and urban-irrigation inflow. Recharge averaged 45 mm/yr, or about 8 percent of the combined inflow from precipitation and urban irrigation. Simulation results indicated that recharge in response to urban irrigation was an important component of spatially distributed recharge, contributing an average of 56 percent of the total recharge to the eight LABWM subdomains containing the Los Angeles groundwater study area. The 100‑year average recharge rate for the eight subdomains was 41 mm/yr, or 8,473 hectare-meters per year (ha-m/yr), with urban irrigation included in the simulation compared to a recharge rate of 18 mm/yr, or 3,741 ha-m/yr, with urban irrigation excluded. In contrast to recharge, the effect of urban irrigation on runoff was slight; runoff was 72,667 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation included compared to 72,618 ha-m/yr with urban irrigation excluded, an increase of only 48 ha-m/yr (about 0.1 percent). Simulation results also indicated that potential recharge from hilly drainages outside of, but bordering and tributary to, the lower-lying area of the Los Angeles groundwater study area, in this study referred to as mountain-front recharge, could provide an important contribution to the total recharge for the groundwater basins. The time-averaged recharge rate was similar to the combined direct and mountain-front recharge components estimated in a previous study and used as input for a calibrated groundwater model. The annual (water year) recharge estimates simulated in this study, however, indicated much greater year-to-year variability, which was dependent on year-to-year variability in the magnitude and distribution of daily precipitation, compared to the previous estimates.

California↗

Regression models for estimating sediment and nutrient concentrations and loads at the Iroquois River near Foresman, Indiana, March 2015 through July 2018

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iroquois River Conservancy District, deployed continuous water-quality monitors and began collecting representative discrete water-quality samples at the Iroquois River near Foresman, Indiana, streamflow-gaging station (U.S. Geological Survey station 05524500). By relating continuously monitored water-quality data and discrete water-quality samples collected from April 2015 through July 2018, regression models that estimate concentrations of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were developed. Developed regression models indicated a strong correlation between turbidity and streamflow with suspended-sediment concentration (adjusted coefficient of determination equals 0.84, predicted residual error sum of squares equals 0.493), nitrate plus nitrite and streamflow with total nitrogen (adjusted coefficient of determination equals 0.99, predicted residual error sum of squares equals 0.0202), and specific conductance and turbidity with total phosphorus (adjusted coefficient of determination equals 0.84, predicted residual error sum of squares equals 0.0935). Daily loads of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were computed as the product of daily mean regression model concentrations and daily mean streamflow. During periods when regression model concentrations could not be computed, rloadest models, the R programming language version of the LOADEST FORTRAN program, were used to compute daily loads of each constituent. For 2016 and 2017, the estimated annual suspended-sediment loads were 25,000 and 32,100 tons; estimated total nitrogen loads were 4,260 and 5,780 tons; and estimated total phosphorus loads were 104 and 128 tons, respectively.

Indiana↗

Low-flow characteristics of streams in the Lake Superior Basin, Wisconsin

Low-flow characteristics of streams in the Lake Superior basin include estimates of low-flow frequency and flow duration at 9 gaging stations, low-flow frequency at 16 low-flow partial-record stations and 38 miscellaneous sites; and a list of base-flow discharge measurement is available. The equations were determined from multiple-regression analyses that relate low-flow characteristics. The standard error of estimate is provided for each method of estimating the annual minimum 7-day mean flow below which the flow will fall on the average of once in 2 years and once in 10 years. Standard error provides the user with the expected degree of accuracy for each method. (Woodard-USGS)

Wisconsin↗

Herbicide concentrations in and loads transported by the Conestoga River and Pequea Creek, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, 1992-95

Water samples were collected from four streams in Lancaster County from 1992 through 1995 and analyzed for selected herbicides. Samples were collected from the Little Conestoga Creek near Churchtown, Mill Creek (a tributary to the Conestoga River) at Elshelman Mill Road near Lyndon, the Conestoga River at Conestoga, and Pequea Creek at Martic Forge. Most samples were collected from stormflow that occurred during the growing season. Samples were analyzed for alachlor, aldrin, atrazine, chlordane, cyanazine, dieldrin, malathion, metolachlor, propazine, simazine, and toxaphene. Most samples had detectable concentrations of alachlor, atrazine, metolachlor, and simazine, and the loads of these constituents that were transported during each of the 4 years were computed. Of the samples collected from each of the streams—Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek—10, 12, 15, and 18 percent, respectively, had atrazine concentrations greater than 3.0 micrograms per liter, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level. Loads of atrazine, metolochlor, and simazine were greater than loads of any other herbicides. The largest loads were transported during 1994. Loads of atrazine transported by the four streams during periods of storm- flow from May to September 1994 totaled 3.46, 28.3, 263, and 46.8 pounds, respectively. The total loads of atrazine transported by the four streams?Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek—during calendar year 1994 were 6.48, 54.1, 498, and 102 pounds, respectively. A little less than half the atrazine load transported by each stream—45, 39, 42, and 42 percent, respectively—was transported during storms that occurred from May through September. Average annual yields of atrazine for the period 1992-95 were 0.59, 0.64, 0.68, and 0.51 pounds per square mile from the Little Conestoga Creek, Mill Creek, Conestoga River, and Pequea Creek, respectively. Average annual yields of simazine were 0.36, 1.2, 0.54, and 0.48 pounds per square mile, respectively, and average annual yields of metolachlor were 0.46, 0.49, 0.54, and 0.31 pounds per square mile, respectively. Less than 1 percent of both the atrazine and metolachlor that was applied to all basins was transported by streamflow.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Peak streamflow trends in Minnesota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This report chapter summarizes the effect of hydroclimatic variability of annual peak streamflow in Minnesota and is part of a larger U.S. Geological Survey multistate study to assess potential nonstationarity in annual peak streamflows across the Midwest. Spatial and temporal patterns were examined for nonstationarity in annual peak streamflow, daily mean streamflow, and modeled climatic data in four analysis periods: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Upward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northwest to southeast and north to south directions. Downward trends in annual peak streamflow were detected in northeastern and southeastern areas. Trends in peak-flow timing indicated that peak streamflows are being detected later in the water year (the period from October 1 to September 30 designated by the year in which it ends) mainly in the southern areas and earlier in the water year mainly in the northern areas. Changes in climate data point to wetter conditions in southern areas and drier conditions in northern areas. Annual precipitation was determined to be increasing in a northwest to southeast direction and in the east. In contrast, some areas in the north and northwest indicated decreasing annual precipitation. Annual snowfall was determined to be decreasing except in the extreme northeast, where annual snowfall was determined to be increasing. Decreases in annual potential evapotranspiration were detected in the south, and increases were detected in the north. Annual soil moisture increased in southern areas and decreased in northern and eastern areas. The potential spatial and temporal nonstationarity violations detected in the four analysis periods have important implications for flood-frequency analysis and point to the need for guidance on how to incorporate nonstationarities into future flood-frequency analysis in Minnesota.

Minnesota↗

Peak streamflow trends in North Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Standardized guidelines for completing flood-flow frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods report known as Bulletin 17C, https://doi.org/10.3133/tm4B5 . In recent decades (since about 2000), a better understanding of long-term climatic persistence (periods of clustered floods or droughts, or wet or dry periods) and concerns about potential climate change and land-use change have caused a reexamination of the stationarity assumptions underlying methods in Bulletin 17C. Bulletin 17C does not offer guidance on incorporating nonstationarities and further identifies a need for flood-frequency studies that incorporate changing climate or basin characteristics. As part of that reexamination, a study of annual peak streamflow (peak flow) has begun in the Midwest. This chapter of the study summarizes how hydroclimatic variability affects peak flows in North Dakota. In this analysis of peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate metrics, four periods were selected: (1) a 100-year period, 1921–2020; (2) a 75-year period, 1946–2020; (3) a 50-year period, 1971–2020; and (4) a 30-year period, 1991–2020. Output from a monthly water-balance model was used for the climate data. Statistical analysis of peak flow consisted of evaluations of autocorrelation, trends, and change points and was augmented with analyses of seasonality and daily streamflow. The long-term pattern of decreasing peak flow in the west and increasing peak flow in the east is a pattern of opposing signals on either side of the 100th meridian. Analyses indicate that a key factor in changing hydroclimatology is the increase in fall precipitation. The trends in soil moisture closely match the trends in annual precipitation. Nonstationary flood-frequency analysis necessitates detailed exploratory data analysis and additional data and information about climate, land use, and other factors. This study provides extensive exploratory analysis for peak flow, daily streamflow, and climate data for North Dakota, setting the stage for informed nonstationary flood-frequency analysis.

North Dakota↗

Spatial data in geographic information system format on agricultural chemical use, land use, and cropping practices in the United States

The spatial data in geographic information system format described in this report consist of estimates for all counties in the conterminous United States of the annual use of 96 herbicides in 1989; annual sales of nitrogen fertilizer, in tons, for 1985-91; and agricultural expenses, land use, chemical use, livestock holdings, and cropping practices in 1987. The source information, originally in tabular form, is summarized as digital polygon attribute data in the 18 geographic information system spatial data layers (coverages) provided. The information in these coverages can be used in estimating regional agricultural-chemical use or agricultural practices and in producing visual displays and mapping relative rates of agricultural-chemical use or agricultural practices across broad regions of the United States.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Methods for estimating monthly and annual streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Utah

The monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows were calculated for 266 streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and the surrounding states. Using geographic information systems software, 24 physiographic and climatic basin characteristics were computed for each gaging station location. Using these data, regional regression equations were created to predict monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent streamflow and annual mean streamflow at ungaged sites in Utah. The state of Utah was divided into seven distinct geohydrologic regions on the basis of a variety of physiographic, climatic, and hydrologic characteristics. Separate regression equations were developed for each region except region 3, which was combined with region 5 because of the small number of gaging stations in region 3. Root mean square error percent for the equations ranged from 34 to 379 percent. The equations are more reliable for predicting high-streamflow statistics (20-percent exceedance) than for predicting the low-streamflow statistics (80-percent exceedance). In general, the mean annual streamflow equations had smaller errors than the monthly predicting equations. The developed equations documented in this report will be implemented in StreamStats, a USGS Web-based tool that allows users to obtain a variety of streamflow statistics and basin characteristics by selecting a location on a map interface.

Utah↗

Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs: 1970-2012

This it the 9th status report since the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) was founded in 1995 was the data arm of the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) to document the ecological condition or corral reefs, strengthen monitoring efforts, and link existing organizations and people working on reefs worldwide. The US Government provided the initial funding to help set up a global network of coral reef workers and has continued to provide core support. Since then, the series of reports have aimed to present the current status of coral reefs of the world or particular regions, the major threats to reefs and their consequences, and any initiative undertaken under the auspices of ICRI or other bodies to arrest or reverse the decline of coral reefs. IUCN assumed responsibility for hosting the global coordination of the GCRMN in 2010 under the scientific direction of Jeremy Jackson with the following objectives: 1. Document quantitatively the global status and trends for corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on available data from individual scientists as well as the peer reviewed scientific literature, monitoring programs, and report. 2. Bring together regional experts in a series of workshops to involve them in data compilation, analysis, and synthesis. 3. Integrate coral reef status and trends with independent environmental, management, and socioeconomic data to better understand the primary factors responsible for coral reef decline, the possible synergies among factors that may further magnify their impacts, and how these stresses may be more effectively alleviated. Work with GCRMN partners to establish simple and practical standardized protocols for future monitoring and assessment. Disseminate information and results to help guide member state policy and actions. The overarching objective is to understand why some reefs are much healthier than others, to identify what kinds of actions have been particularly beneficial or harmful, and to vigorously communicate results in simple and straightforward terms to foster more effective conservation and management. This and subsequent reports will focus on separate biogeographic regions in a stepwise fashion and combine all of the results for a global synthesis in the coming years. We began in the wide Caribbean region because the historical data are so extensive and to refine methods of analysis before moving on to other regions. This report documents quantitative trends for Caribbean reef corals, macroalgae, sea urchins, and fishes based on data from 90 reef locations over the past 43 tears. This is the first report to combine all these disparate kinds of data in a single place to explore how the different major components of coral reef ecosystems interact on a broadly regional oceanic scale. We obtained data from more than 35,000 ecological surveys carried out by 78 principal investigators (PIs) and some 200 colleagues working in 34 countries, states, and territories throughout the wide Caribbean region. We conducted two workshops in Panama and Brisbane, Australia to bring together people who provided the data to assist in data quality control, analysis, and synthesis. The first workshop at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in the Republic of Panama 29 April to 5 May, 2012 included scientists from 18 countries and territories to verify and expand the database and to conduct exploratory analyses of status and trends. Preliminary results based on the Panama workshop were presented to the DC Marine Community and Smithsonian Institution Senate of Scientists in May 2012 and at the International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) and annual ICRI meeting in Cairns, Australia in July 2012. The second workshop in Brisbane, Australia in December 2012 brought together eight coral reef scientists for more detailed data analysis and organization of results for this report and subsequent publications. Subsequent presentations to solicit comments while the report was being finalized were made in 2013-2014 at the ICRI General meeting in Belize, the biennial meeting of the Association of Island Marine Laboratories in Jamaica, the Panamerican Coral Reef Congress in Merida, Mexico, the annual meeting of he Western Society of Naturalists, and numerous universities in Costa Rica, the USA and Europe. The main body of the report is in two sections. Part I provides an overview of overall status and trends and detailed analyses of the multiple factors responsible for the decline of reef corals throughout the entire wider Caribbean region. The editors are grateful to all the people who have so generously provided data and expertise, but we assume responsibility for the many statements, conclusions and recommendations and final wording of the text. Part II provides a more detailed analysis of the status and trends of coral reef ecosystems in the 32 countries, states, and territories for which we have data. The format includes maps indicating all locations sampled, a detailed table of data sources and sites surveyed, timelines of ecologically important evens, and relevant references. Each of these reports was compiled in consultation with local experts and all those who provided data and advice are listed as authors of each country report.

Report↗

Description and effects of 1988 drought on ground-water levels, streamflow, and reservoir levels in Indiana

Documentation of the 1988 drought in Indiana was undertaken to aid water-management agencies and planners concerned with periods of below-normal precipitation and their effect on commercial, agricultural, and residential water use. Precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Indices, and ground- and surface-water levels from water years 1988 and 1989 were compared to the historical record to evaluate severity, extent, and duration of the 1988 drought in Indiana. Three types of drought-climatological, hydrologic, and agricultural--occurred in most of Indiana during water years 1988 and 1989. The drought began toward the end of calendar year 1987 as annual precipitation decreased to 4.6 inches below the long term mean. By the end of September 1988, statewide precipitation deficits had increased to almost 8 inches below normal. High temperatures during the summer months increased the stress on crops, livestock, and people. Northwest Indiana experienced the second warmest June-August on record. Palmer Drought Severity Indices indicated that a moderate-to-severe drought had occurred in Indiana during most of 1988. Ground-water levels were affected substantially in many areas of the State. Record low-water levels were observed at 12 of the 20 monitoring wells included in this report. A go-day ground-water emergency was declared in parts of northwestern Indiana. Streamflow throughout the State was affected to varying degrees by the drought. Annual mean discharge in some rivers was only slightly less than the mean annual discharge, while others flowed at less than half that value. The effects of low streamflows were felt by many as electric power plants reduced or ceased production and public-water utilities requested conservation measures by their customers. Major reservoirs in the State approached or reached record low levels, causing water supplies as well as recreational activities to be diminished. Most major crops produced in Indiana were affected by the dry conditions. Average yields in 1988 ranged from 50 to 86 percent of 1987 yields.

Indiana↗

Potentiometric Surface of the Upper Floridan Aquifer, West-central Florida, May 2010

The Floridan aquifer system consists of the Upper and Lower Floridan aquifers separated by the middle confining unit. The middle confining unit and the Lower Floridan aquifer in west-central Florida generally contain highly mineralized water. The water-bearing units containing fresh water are herein referred to as the Upper Floridan aquifer. The Upper Floridan aquifer is the principal source of water in the Southwest Florida Water Management District and is used for major public supply, domestic use, irrigation, and brackish water desalination in coastal communities (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2000). This map report shows the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer measured in May 2010. The potentiometric surface is an imaginary surface connecting points of equal altitude to which water will rise in tightly-cased wells that tap a confined aquifer system (Lohman, 1979). This map represents water-level conditions near the end of the dry season, when groundwater levels usually are at an annual low and withdrawals for agricultural use typically are high. The cumulative average rainfall of 55.21 inches for west-central Florida (from June 2009 through May 2010) was 2.55 inches above the historical cumulative average of 52.66 inches (Southwest Florida Water Management District, 2010). Historical cumulative averages are calculated from regional rainfall summary reports (1915 to most recent complete calendar year) and are updated monthly by the Southwest Florida Water Management District. This report, prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, is part of a semi-annual series of Upper Floridan aquifer potentiometric-surface map reports for west-central Florida. Potentiometric-surface maps have been prepared for January 1964, May 1969, May 1971, May 1973, May 1974, and for each May and September since 1975. Water-level data are collected in May and September each year to show the approximate annual low and high water-level conditions, respectively. Most of the water-level data for this map were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during the period May 17-21, 2010. Supplemental water-level data were collected by other agencies and companies. Most water-level measurements were made during a 5-day period; therefore, measurements do not represent a 'snapshot' of conditions at a specific time, nor do they necessarily coincide with the seasonal low water-level condition.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Basin, climatic, and irrigation factors associated with median summer water yields for streams in Southwestern Michigan, 1945-2015

Median summer water yields and resultant flows for streams are used in Michigan to regulate large water withdrawals to help prevent negative effects on characteristic fish populations. Large water withdrawals commonly are associated with irrigation in rural areas. In an earlier statewide report, an index-flow statistic for the period of record, defined as the median flow during the summer month of lowest flow, was used to characterize median summer flows and associated water yields. In this report, the annual series of median summer water yields for the period July 1 through September 30 within the period of record is used to characterize median summer water yields. For 27 streamgages included in both reports, the average index water yield was at the 37th percentile of the distribution of median summer water yields. In contrast to an index statistic, an annual time series provides a basis for detecting trends in median summer water yields and for determining basin, climatic, and irrigation factors affecting spatial and temporal variations in summer water yields. Daily flow data from 40 selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in southwestern Michigan were used in this analysis. Two mixed models were identified to estimate median summer water yields based on fixed basin characteristics and temporally varying climatic factors for 1945–2015. No irrigation data were available prior to 1970, so no irrigation variables were included in the mixed models for 1945–2015. Then, two mixed models were developed for 1970–2015, a period in which a partial annual series of county-level irrigation data also were available. One of the 1970–2015 mixed models provides a basis for estimating median summer water yields at sites in southwestern Michigan using an estimated trend component, and selected basin, climatic, and irrigation factors. Re-estimation of model parameters in this mixed model with more spatially precise information on irrigation withdrawals may improve model accuracy.

Michigan↗

Estimated 2012 groundwater potentiometric surface and drawdown from predevelopment to 2012 in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area, central New Mexico

Historically, the water-supply requirements of the Albuquerque metropolitan area of central New Mexico were met almost exclusively by groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. In response to water-level declines, the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (ABCWUA) began diverting water from the San Juan-Chama Drinking Water Project in December 2008 to reduce the use of groundwater to meet municipal demand. Modifications in the demand for water and the source of the supply of water for the Albuquerque metropolitan area have resulted in a variable response in the potentiometric surface of the production zone (the interval of the aquifer, from within about 200 feet below the water table to 900 feet or more, in which supply wells generally are screened) of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system. Analysis of the magnitude and spatial distribution of water-level change can help improve the understanding of how the groundwater system responds to withdrawals and variations in the management of the water supply and can support water-management agencies’ efforts to minimize future water-level declines and improve sustainability. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the ABCWUA, has developed an estimate of the 2012 potentiometric surface of the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area. This potentiometric surface is the latest in a series of reports depicting the potentiometric surface of the area. This report presents the estimated potentiometric surface during winter (from December to March) of water year 2012 and the estimated changes in potentiometric surface between predevelopment (pre-1961) and water year 2012 for the production zone of the Santa Fe Group aquifer system in the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Hydrographs from selected piezometers are included to provide details of historical water-level changes. In general, water-level measurements used for this report were collected in small-diameter observation wells screened over short intervals near the middle of the production zone and were considered to best represent the potentiometric head in the production zone. The water-level measurements were collected by various local and Federal agencies. The water year 2012 potentiometric surface map was created in a geographic information system, and the change in water-level altitude from predevelopment to water year 2012 was calculated. The 2012 potentiometric surface indicates that the general direction of groundwater flow is from the Rio Grande towards clusters of supply wells in the east, north, and west. Water-level changes from predevelopment to 2012 were variable across the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Estimated drawdown from 2008 was spatially variable across the Albuquerque metropolitan area. Hydrographs from piezometers on the east side of the river indicate an increase in the annual highest water-level measurement from 2008 to 2012. Hydrographs from piezometers in the northwest part of the study area indicate either steady decline of the water-level altitude over the period of record or recently variable trends in which water-level altitudes increased for a number of years but have declined since water year 2012.

New Mexico↗

Base flow in the Great Lakes Basin

Hydrograph separations were performed using the PART, HYSEP 1, 2, and 3, BFLOW and UKIH methods on 104,293 years of daily streamflow records from 3,936 streamflow-gaging stations in Ontario, Canada and the eight Great Lakes States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to estimate base-flow index (BFI) and base flow. BFI ranged an average of 0.24 BFI depending on which hydrograph-separation method was used. BFI data from 959 selected streamflow-gaging stations with a combined 28,784 years of daily streamflow data were used to relate BFI to surficial geology and the proportion of surface water within the gaged watersheds. This relation was then used to derive estimates of BFI throughout the Great Lakes, Ottawa River, and upper St. Lawrence River Basins at a scale of 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) watersheds for the U.S. and tertiary watersheds in Canada. This process was repeated for each of the six hydrograph-separation methods used. When applied to gaged watersheds, model results predicted observed base flow within 0.2 BFI up to 94 percent of the time. Estimates of long-term (length of streamflow record) average annual streamflow in each HUC and tertiary watershed were calculated and used to determine average annual base flow from BFI estimates. Possibilities for future study based on results from this study include long-term trend analysis of base flow and improving the scale at which base-flow estimates can be made.

Great Lakes Basin↗

Ground-water hydrology and water quality of the Southern High Plains Aquifer, Cannon Air Force Base, Curry County, New Mexico, 1994-2005

In cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Geological Survey has collected hydrologic data about the Southern High Plains aquifer at Cannon Air Force Base in east-central New Mexico since 1994. Under the guidance of the State of New Mexico, ground-water quality of the aquifer has been analyzed as part of annual monitoring at regulated sites at the base. This report provides a summary and interpretation of all available hydrologic data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for Cannon Air Force Base environmental managers for the regulated sites of Landfill 5 and the Sewage Lagoons between 1994 and 2005.

New Mexico↗

Detection of conveyance changes in St. Clair River using historical water-level and flow data with inverse one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling

St. Clair River is a connecting channel that transports water from Lake Huron to the St. Clair River Delta and Lake St. Clair. A negative trend has been detected in differences between water levels on Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair. This trend may indicate a combination of flow and conveyance changes within St. Clair River. To identify where conveyance change may be taking place, eight water-level gaging stations along St. Clair River were selected to delimit seven reaches. Positive trends in water-level fall were detected in two reaches, and negative trends were detected in two other reaches. The presence of both positive and negative trends in water-level fall indicates that changes in conveyance are likely occurring among some reaches because all reaches transmit essentially the same flow. Annual water-level fall in reaches and reach lengths was used to compute conveyance ratios for all pairs of reaches by use of water-level data from 1962 to 2007. Positive and negative trends in conveyance ratios indicate that relative conveyance is changing among some reaches. Inverse one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic modeling was used to estimate a partial annual series of effective channel-roughness parameters in reaches forming the St. Clair River for 21 years when flow measurements were sufficient to support parameter estimation. Monotonic, persistent but non-monotonic, and irregular changes in estimated effective channel roughness with time were interpreted as systematic changes in conveyances in five reaches. Time-varying parameter estimates were used to simulate flow throughout the St. Clair River and compute changes in conveyance with time. Based on the partial annual series of parameters, conveyance in the St. Clair River increased about 10 percent from 1962 to 2002. Conveyance decreased, however, about 4.1 percent from 2003 to 2007, so that conveyance was about 5.9 percent higher in 2007 than in 1962.

St. Clair River↗