USGS Science⌕ Search

SEARCH · USGS Science

Results for “Global Change and Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

Hepatotoxic response of perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio) is greater than perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS)

Perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), a typical perfluorooctane sulfonate precursor (PreFOS), has been detected in the aquatic environment globally. However, the effects of PFOSA at levels measured in the environment have not been well characterized in aquatic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptional, biochemical, histopathological, and morphological effects of PFOSA to characterize the underlying mechanisms of toxicity by using a universal model in aquatic ecotoxicology, zebrafish ( Danio rerio ). Transcriptional changes in PFOSA-exposed zebrafish predicted hepatic fibrosis and associated immune function. Subsequent, sublethal impacts were observed, which included significant alterations in liver-specific protein levels, increased immune cell numbers, and liver pathological structural damage. In addition, we compared the effects caused by PFOSA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) at the same exposure concentration and found a greater hepatotoxic effect of PFOSA relative to PFOS, indicating that the adverse impacts of PFOSA may be more severe. This was the first study to comparatively explore the hepatotoxic response of PFOSA and PFOS in aquatic organisms, which can be used for ecological risk assessments of PreFOS compounds.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

Decoupling of species and plant communities of the U.S. Southwest: A CCSM4 climate scenario example

Climate change is predicted to alter the current climate suitability under which plant species and communities occur. Predictions of change have focused on individual species or entire communities, but theory indicates plants will not respond uniformly to climate change within or between communities. We developed models of the current climate suitability (the baseline) of 66 plant species characteristic of 29 plant communities of the arid Southwest, made predictions of climate suitability for the species under two climate change scenarios for the years 2041–2060 (Community Climate System Model version 1.4 [CCSM4] global climate model [GCM], Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios), and calculated changes in suitability between the future scenarios and baseline for each species. Climate change exposure for the entire community was then evaluated as the composite change of the predicted future climate suitability of the communities' characteristic species. Loss of 25% or more of favorable climate suitability was predicted for 39 (RCP4.5) and 51 (RCP8.5) species within their communities. The proportion of the study area with all species in a community having unfavorable suitability was 17.9% (RCP4.5) and 21.3% (RCP8.5) compared to 6.2% for baseline. We show that suitable climates for species within a plant community are not expected to be a single community-wide trajectory, but rather changes in climate suitability will be unique to the species and not experienced uniformly across the extant communities. This decoupling of plant species within their traditional plant communities may lead to a cascade of unanticipated ecological responses and unprecedented challenges to resource management. Our study results can inform hypotheses of the future successional track of plant communities, characteristic species, and the decisions resource managers must make for management.

Ecosphere↗

Sea otter-mediated linkages among oceanic, nearshore, and terrestrial ecosystems

Seemingly distinct ecological communities are often linked by both direct and indirect interactions that can be difficult to discern. A widely recognized interecosystem linkage is the transfer of marine-derived nutrients to terrestrial systems via anadromous fish. In this chapter, we explore other linkages that move marine-derived nutrients between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, focusing on the role of nearshore marine ecosystems . Through oceanic nutrients and biomass that originate from phytoplankton, and nearshore nutrients and biomass that derive mainly from macroalgae, there are multiple pathways to subsidize terrestrial ecosystems. We discuss various pathways identified through multiple independent studies and explore how those subsidies may be related to sea otter presence. Recovery of sea otters and subsequent changes to nearshore communities, for example, changes in kelp, invertebrate and vertebrate abundance, and diversity, may in turn influence coastal terrestrial ecosystems and species including bears, wolves, foxes, river otters, shorebirds, and other consumers. As offshore oceanic productivity declines globally, we ask how the return of the sea otter reinvigorates diminished and lost linkages between marine and terrestrial environments through direct predator–prey linkages, and indirectly through the enhancement of the nearshore marine environment.

Book chapter↗

Evidence on the ecological and physical effects of built structures in shallow, tropical coral reefs: A systematic map

Shallow, tropical coral reefs face compounding threats from climate change, habitat degradation due to coastal development and pollution, impacts from storms and sea-level rise, and pulse disturbances like blast fishing, mining, dredging, and ship groundings that reduce reef height and complexity. One approach toward restoring coral reef physical structure from such impacts is deploying built structures of artificial, natural, or hybrid (both artificial and natural) origin. Built structures range from designed modules and repurposed materials to underwater sculptures and intentionally placed natural rocks. Restoration practitioners and coastal managers increasingly consider incorporating – and in many cases have already begun to incorporate – built structures into coral reef-related applications, yet synthesized evidence on the ecological (coral-related; e.g., coral growth, coral survival) and physical performance of built structures in coral ecosystems across a variety of contexts (e.g., restoration, coastal protection, mitigation, tourism) is not readily available to guide decisions. To help fill this gap and inform management decisions, we systematically mapped the global distribution and abundance of published evidence on the ecological (coral-related) and physical performance of built structure interventions in shallow (≤ 30 m), tropical (35°N to 35°S) coral ecosystems.

Environmental Evidence↗

The Pacific as the world’s greatest theater of bird migration: Extreme flights spark questions about physiological capabilities, behavior, and the evolution of migratory pathways

The Pacific Basin, by virtue of its vastness and its complex aeroscape, provides unique opportunities to address questions about the behavioral and physiological capabilities and mechanisms through which birds can complete spectacular flights. No longer is the Pacific seen just as a formidable barrier between terrestrial habitats in the north and the south, but rather as a gateway for specialized species, such as shorebirds, to make a living on hemispherically distributed seasonal resources. This recent change in perspective is dramatic, and the research that underpins it has presented new opportunities to learn about phenomena that often challenge a sense of normal. Ancient Polynesians were aware of the seasonal passage of shorebirds and other landbirds over the Pacific Ocean, incorporating these observations into their navigational “tool kit” as they explored and colonized the Pacific. Some ten centuries later, systematic visual observations and tracking technology have revealed much about movement of these shorebirds, especially the enormity of their individual nonstop flights. This invites a broad suite of questions, often requiring comparative studies with bird migration across other ocean basins, or across continents. For example, how do birds manage many days of nonstop exercise apparently without sleep? What mechanisms explain birds acting as if they possess a Global Positioning System? How do such extreme migrations evolve? Through advances in both theory and tracking technology, biologists are poised to greatly expand the horizons of movement ecology as we know it. In this integrative review, we present a series of intriguing questions about trans-Pacific migrant shorebirds and summarize recent advances in knowledge about migratory behavior operating at temporal scales ranging from immediate decisions during a single flight, to adaptive learning throughout a lifetime, to evolutionary development of migratory pathways. Recent advances in this realm should stimulate future research across the globe and across a broad array of disciplines.

Ornithology↗

Simulation modeling of complex climate, wildfire, and vegetation dynamics to address wicked problems in land management

Complex, reciprocal interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation dramatically alter spatial landscape patterns and influence ecosystem dynamics. As climate and disturbance regimes shift, historical analogs and past empirical studies may not be entirely appropriate as templates for future management. The need for a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate changes on ecosystems is reaching a new level of urgency, especially in highly perturbed or vulnerable ecological systems. Simulation models are extremely useful tools for guiding management decisions in an era of rapid change, thus providing potential solutions for wicked problems in land management—those that are difficult to solve and inherently resistant to easily definable solutions. We identify three experimental approaches for landscape modeling that address management challenges in the context of uncertain climate futures and complex ecological interactions: (1) an historical comparative approach, (2) a future comparative approach, and (3) threshold detection. We provide examples of each approach from previously published studies of simulated climate, disturbance, and landscape dynamics in forested landscapes of the western United States, modeled with the FireBGCv2 ecosystem process model. Cumulatively, model outcomes indicate that typical land management strategies will likely not be sufficient to counteract the impacts of rapid climate change and altered disturbance regimes that threaten the stability of ecosystems. Without implementation of new, adaptive management strategies, future landscapes are very likely to be different than historical or contemporary ones, with significant and sometimes persistent changes triggered by interactions of climate and wildfire.

Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming↗

Directional connectivity in hydrology and ecology

Quantifying hydrologic and ecological connectivity has contributed to understanding transport and dispersal processes and assessing ecosystem degradation or restoration potential. However, there has been little synthesis across disciplines. The growing field of ecohydrology and recent recognition that loss of hydrologic connectivity is leading to a global decline in biodiversity underscore the need for a unified connectivity concept. One outstanding need is a way to quantify directional connectivity that is consistent, robust to variations in sampling, and transferable across scales or environmental settings. Understanding connectivity in a particular direction (e.g., streamwise, along or across gradient, between sources and sinks, along cardinal directions) provides critical information for predicting contaminant transport, planning conservation corridor design, and understanding how landscapes or hydroscapes respond to directional forces like wind or water flow. Here we synthesize progress on quantifying connectivity and develop a new strategy for evaluating directional connectivity that benefits from use of graph theory in ecology and percolation theory in hydrology. The directional connectivity index (DCI) is a graph-theory based, multiscale metric that is generalizable to a range of different structural and functional connectivity applications. It exhibits minimal sensitivity to image rotation or resolution within a given range and responds intuitively to progressive, unidirectional change. Further, it is linearly related to the integral connectivity scale length—a metric common in hydrology that correlates well with actual fluxes—but is less computationally challenging and more readily comparable across different landscapes. Connectivity-orientation curves (i.e., directional connectivity computed over a range of headings) provide a quantitative, information-dense representation of environmental structure that can be used for comparison or detection of subtle differences in the physical-biological feedbacks driving pattern formation. Case-study application of the DCI to the Everglades in south Florida revealed that loss of directional hydrologic connectivity occurs more rapidly and is a more sensitive indicator of declining ecosystem function than other metrics (e.g., habitat area) used previously. Here and elsewhere, directional connectivity can provide insight into landscape drivers and processes, act as an early-warning indicator of environmental degradation, and serve as a planning tool or performance measure for conservation and restoration efforts.

Ecological Applications↗

Trajectories and tipping points of piñon–juniper woodlands after fire and thinning

Piñon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are a dominant community type across the Intermountain West, comprising over a million acres and experiencing critical effects from increasing wildfire. Large PJ mortality and regeneration failure after catastrophic wildfire have elevated concerns about the long-term viability of PJ woodlands. Thinning is increasingly used to safeguard forests from fire and in an attempt to increase climate resilience. We have only a limited understanding of how fire and thinning will affect the structure and function of PJ ecosystems. Here, we examined vegetation structure, microclimate conditions, and PJ regeneration dynamics following ~20 years post-fire and thinning treatments. We found that burned areas had undergone a state shift that did not show signs of returning to their previous state. This shift was characterized by (1) distinct plant community composition dominated by grasses; (2) a lack of PJ recruitment; (3) a decrease in the sizes of interspaces in between plants; (4) lower abundance of late successional biological soil crusts; (5) lower mean and minimum daily soil moisture values; (6) lower minimum daily vapor pressure deficit; and (7) higher photosynthetically active radiation. Thinning created distinct plant communities and served as an intermediate between intact and burned communities. More intensive thinning decreased PJ recruitment and late successional biocrust cover. Our results indicate that fire has the potential to create drier and more stressful microsite conditions, and that, in the absence of active management following fire, there may be shifts to persistent ecological states dominated by grasses. Additionally, more intensive thinning had a larger impact on community structure and recruitment than less intensive thinning, suggesting that careful consideration of goals could help avoid unintended consequences. While our results indicate the vulnerability of PJ ecosystems to fire, they also highlight management actions that could be adapted to create conditions that promote PJ re-establishment.

Colorado↗

Global review of the effects of small carnivores on threatened species

The absences of large carnivores from many ecosystems, human-induced landscape changes, and resource supplementation have been theorized to increase the abundance of small carnivore species around the world. Overabundant and/or unconstrained small carnivores can have significant effects on specific prey species that, in some cases, can cascade through entire ecosystems. Here, we review the effects of small carnivores on threatened species. We focus on four well-studied families (Procyonidae, Mephitidae, Mustelidae, and Herpestidae) and emphasize that this is a global conservation issue with consequences for biodiversity. We review and compare the impacts that small carnivores can have on a variety of prey taxa including small mammals, nesting avian and reptilian species, and rare invertebrates. We differentiate between native and exotic small carnivores because this is often an important distinction in terms of the impact severity and range of effects. In addition to direct lethal effects (i.e. predation), small carnivores can also impact threatened species as disease vectors and through competition or overexploitation, which can disrupt communities via ecological release or extinction. Furthermore, we explore other case studies in which small carnivores have had positive effects on threatened species and discuss studies that reveal other taxa responsible for exerting stronger negative effects on threatened prey. We offer some concluding remarks about global small carnivore conservation and emphasize the need for decision-analytic approaches and robust analyses that can improve our assessment of how populations of threatened species can be affected. To date, indirect effects are especially difficult to measure in the field and many studies have provided only anecdotal or correlative results, signalling a need for improving our scientific methodologies and management approaches.

Book chapter↗

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influences whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Global Change Biology↗

Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions

Aim: Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location: Western United States. Major taxa studied: Two pinyon pine ( Pinus spp . ) and three juniper ( Juniperus spp . ) species. Methods: We developed range-wide demographic models for five species using forest inventory data from across the western United States and estimated population trends and climate vulnerability. Results: We find that four of the five species are declining in parts of their range, with Pinus edulis having the largest proportion of populations declining (24%). Population vulnerability increases with aridity and temperature, with up to ~50% of populations declining in the warmest and driest conditions. Mortality and recruitment were both essential to explaining where populations are declining. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that dry forest species are undergoing an active range shift driven by both changing recruitment and mortality, and that increasing temperatures and drought threaten the long-term viability of many of these species in their current range. While four of the five species examined were experiencing some declines, P. edulis is currently most vulnerable. Management actions such as reducing tree density may be able to mitigate some of these impacts. The framework we present to estimate range-wide demographic rates can be applied to other species to determine where range contractions are most likely.

Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Me↗

Ecoregional-scale monitoring within conservation areas, in a rapidly changing climate

Long-term monitoring of ecological systems can prove invaluable for resource management and conservation. Such monitoring can: (1) detect instances of long-term trend (either improvement or deterioration) in monitored resources, thus providing an early-warning indication of system change to resource managers; (2) inform management decisions and help assess the effects of management actions, as well as anthropogenic and natural disturbances; and (3) provide the grist for supplemental research on mechanisms of system dynamics and cause-effect relationships (Fancy et al., 2009). Such monitoring additionally provides a snapshot of the status of monitored resources during each sampling cycle, and helps assess whether legal standards and regulations are being met. Until the last 1-2 decades, tracking and understanding changes in condition of natural resources across broad spatial extents have been infrequently attempted. Several factors, however, are facilitating the achievement of such broad-scale investigation and monitoring. These include increasing awareness of the importance of landscape context, greater prevalence of regional and global environmental stressors, and the rise of landscape-scale programs designed to manage and monitor biological systems. Such programs include the US Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program (Moser et al., 2008), Canada's National Forest Inventory, the 3Q Programme for monitoring agricultural landscapes of Norway (Dramstad et al., 2002), and the emerging (US) Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (USDOI Secretarial Order 3289, 2009; Anonymous, 2011). This Special Section explores the underlying design considerations, as well as many pragmatic aspects associated with program implementation and interpretation of results from broad-scale monitoring systems, particularly within the constraints of high-latitude contexts (e.g., low road density, short field season, dramatic fluctuations in temperature). Although Alaska is the focus of most papers in this Special Section, we posit that many of the issues that characterize the remote, relatively undisturbed ecosystems of high northern latitudes are widespread and thus applicable to natural-resource management and conservation across northern portions of the Holarctic ecozone and indeed anywhere broad-scale monitoring is contemplated.

Biological Conservation↗

Reef communities in the Dry Tortugas (Florida, USA): Baseline surveys for the new no-take area

To understand the current community structure on reefs in the Dry Tortugas, we conducted specieslevel surveys of macroalgae, coral diversity, herbivorous and game fishes, urchins, and substratum composition (e.g., rugosity) in shallow (3- to 5-m depth) low-relief reef and hardbottom habitats in October 2007. We had particular interest in the ecological process of herbivory inside and outside of the “no-take” Research Natural Area (RNA) designated by the U.S. National Park Service in 2007, and establishing a baseline to assess future changes to trophic functioning. Diadema antillarum and herbivorous fish abundance, percent cover of macroalgae, and species richness of corals and gorgonians at the 18 randomly selected survey sites were not significantly different inside vs. outside of the RNA. Mean densities of D. antillarum ranged from 0.01 to 0.54 individuals m -2 , with 11 of the 18 sites having densities above 0.10 individuals m -2 . Both D. antillarum density and coral species richness were positively correlated to rugosity of the substratum. Diadema antillarum density was also positively related to percentage of the substratum composed of Acropora cervicornis rubble. Improved trophic functioning and increases in D. antillarum can improve reef condition in the Dry Tortugas, and the RNA is an important management tool to achieve increases in reef resilience to global-scale stressors.

Florida↗

Responses of migratory amphibians to barrier fencing inform the spacing of road underpasses: A case study with California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense) in Stanford, CA, USA

Migratory amphibians are at high risk of negative impacts when roads intersect their upland and breeding habitats. Road mortality can reduce population abundance, survivorship, breeding, recruitment, and probability of long-term persistence. Increasingly, environmental planners recommend installation of under-road tunnels with barrier fencing to reduce mortality and direct amphibians towards the passages. Often, the permeability of these barrier and passage systems to amphibian population movements are unknown. We studied the movements of California tiger salamanders (CTS: Ambystoma californiense ) in relation to solid and mesh barrier fencing attached to a 3-tunnel system between upland and breeding habitats in Stanford, California. We deployed active-trigger cameras along the fencing, used pattern recognition software to identify individuals by their unique spot patterns, and calculated individual salamander movement distances, speed, direction changes, and “success” at reaching the tunnel system. We found that migrating adult CTS moved an average of 40 m along barrier fencing before turning back into the habitat or “giving-up”. This short distance, in comparison to long migratory movements, may be explained by the orientation mechanisms salamanders use to reach their breeding sites. The probability CTS found a passage decreased rapidly with increasing distance from the tunnel system, particularly if individuals turned the “wrong” way after encountering the fence. Salamanders changed directions more often and spent more time along mesh fencing. Our results suggest that a maximum of 12.5 m between passages along CTS migration routes should allow approximately 90% of adult salamanders to encounter road crossings. Additionally, use of solid fencing or a visual barrier on mesh fencing may help to lead salamanders to passages most efficiently. These considerations can assist those seeking to design effective road mitigation for CTS and other migratory amphibians.

California↗

The state of the world’s mangroves in the 21st century under climate change

Concerted mangrove research and rehabilitation efforts over the last several decades have prompted a better understanding of the important ecosystem attributes worthy of protection and a better conservation ethic toward mangrove wetlands globally. While mangroves continue to be degraded and lost in specific regions, conservation initiatives, rehabilitation efforts, natural regeneration, and climate range expansion have promoted gains in other areas, ultimately serving to curb the high mangrove habitat loss statistics from the doom and gloom of the 1980s. We highlight those trends in this article and introduce this special issue of Hydrobiologia dedicated to the important and recurring Mangrove and Macrobenthos Meeting. This collection of papers represents studies presented at the fourth such meeting (MMM4) held in St. Augustine, Florida, USA, on July 18–22, 2016. Our intent is to provide a balanced message about the global state of mangrove wetlands by describing recent reductions in net mangrove area losses and highlighting primary research studies presented at MMM4 through a collection of papers. These papers serve not only to highlight on-going global research advancements, but also provide an overview of the vast amount of data on mangrove ecosystem ecology, biology and rehabilitation that emphasizes the uniqueness of the mangrove community.

Hydrobiologia↗

Framework for facilitating mangrove recovery after hurricanes on Caribbean islands

Mangrove ecosystems in the Caribbean are frequently exposed to hurricanes, leading to structural and regenerative change that elicit calls for recovery action. For those mangroves unaffected by human modifications, recovery can occur naturally. Indeed, observable natural recovery after hurricanes is the genesis of the “disturbance adaptation” classification for mangroves; while structural legacies exist, unaltered stands often regenerate and persist. However, among the >7,000 islands, islets, and cays that make up the Caribbean archipelago, coastal alterations to support development affect mechanisms for regeneration, sediment distribution, tidal water conveyance, and intertidal mangrove transgression, imposing sometimes insurmountable barriers to natural post-hurricane recovery. We use a case study approach to suggest that actions to facilitate recovery of mangroves on Caribbean islands (and similar settings globally) may be more effective when focusing on ameliorating pre-existing anthropogenic stressors. Actions to clean debris, collect mangrove propagules, and plant seedlings are noble endeavors, but can be costly and fall short of achieving recovery goals in isolation without careful consideration of pre-hurricane stress. We update a procedural framework that considers six steps to implementing “Ecological Mangrove Restoration” (EMR), and we apply them specifically to hurricane recovery. If followed, EMR may expedite actions by suggesting immediate damage assessment focused on hydrogeomorphic mangrove type, hydrology, and previous anthropogenic (or natural) influence. Application of EMR may help to improve mangrove recovery success following catastrophic storms, and reduce guesswork, delays, and monetary inefficiencies.

Restoration Ecology↗

Species- and community-level responses combine to drive phenology of lake phytoplankton

Global change is leading to shifts in the seasonal timing of growth and maturation for primary producers. Remote sensing is increasingly used to measure the timing of primary production in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but there is often a poor correlation between these results and direct observations of life-history responses of individual species. One explanation may be that in addition to phenological shifts, global change is also causing shifts in community composition among species with different seasonal timing of growth and maturation. We quantified how shifts in species phenology and in community composition translated into phenological change in a diverse phytoplankton community from 1962-2000. During this time the aggregate community spring-summer phytoplankton peak has shifted 63 days earlier. The mean taxon shift was only 3 days earlier and shifts in taxa phenology explained only 40% of the observed community phenological shift. The remaining community shift was attributed to dominant early season taxa increasing in abundance while a dominant late season taxon decreased in abundance. In diverse producer communities experiencing multiple stressors, changes in species composition must be considered to fully understand and predict shifts in the seasonal timing of primary production.

Washington↗

Flow–recruitment relationships for Shoal Chub and implications for managing environmental flows

Objective Regulation of river flow regimes by dams and diversions impacts aquatic biota and ecosystems globally. However, our understanding of the ecological consequences of flow alteration and ecological benefits of flow restoration lags behind our ability to manipulate flows, and there is a need for broader development of flow–ecology relationships. Approaches for establishing flow–ecology relationships have recently shifted away from state-based methods that analyze snapshots of ecological conditions and towards rate-based methods focused on mechanisms that link hydrology with dynamics of important ecological components and processes. Methods We used a rate-based approach to validate environmental flow standards developed for the lower Brazos River, Texas, by analyzing the relationship between flow regime components and recruitment strength of imperiled Shoal Chub Macrhybopsis hyostoma , a fluvial specialist and pelagic-broadcast-spawning fish. We collected 254 age-0 Shoal Chub (9–40 mm total length), extracted their otoliths to estimate age in days, and used a generalized additive model to regress the number of captured recruits that hatched on a calendar date against flow regime metrics, such as pulse magnitude, flow rate of change, and pulse timing in relation to environmental flow standards proposed by a science advisory committee (Brazos Basin and Bay Area Expert Science Team). Result The model revealed that flow magnitude, rate of change, and timing were all significant predictors that collectively explained 60% of variation in the recruitment strength index. Hindcasting for 1919–2020 showed a general reduction in recruitment strength following commencement of flow regulation in the lower Brazos River and revealed that high recruitment correlated with years in which most or all proposed flow tiers were attained, whereas low recruitment correlated with years when less than half of the targeted tiers were attained. Conclusion Our work represents an effective validation method for environmental flow recommendations and reveals specific flow regimes that benefit an imperiled fish species.

New Mexico, Texas↗