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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Source mechanism of small long-period events at Mount St. Helens in July 2005 using template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion

Long-period (LP, 0.5-5 Hz) seismicity, observed at volcanoes worldwide, is a recognized signature of unrest and eruption. Cyclic LP “drumbeating” was the characteristic seismicity accompanying the sustained dome-building phase of the 2004–2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH), WA. However, together with the LP drumbeating was a near-continuous, randomly occurring series of tiny LP seismic events (LP “subevents”), which may hold important additional information on the mechanism of seismogenesis at restless volcanoes. We employ template matching, phase-weighted stacking, and full-waveform inversion to image the source mechanism of one multiplet of these LP subevents at MSH in July 2005. The signal-to-noise ratios of the individual events are too low to produce reliable waveform-inversion results, but the events are repetitive and can be stacked. We apply network-based template matching to 8 days of continuous velocity waveform data from 29 June to 7 July 2005 using a master event to detect 822 network triggers. We stack waveforms for 359 high-quality triggers at each station and component, using a combination of linear and phase-weighted stacking to produce clean stacks for use in waveform inversion. The derived source mechanism pointsto the volumetric oscillation (~10 m 3 ) of a subhorizontal crack located at shallow depth (~30 m) in an area to the south of Crater Glacier in the southern portion of the breached MSH crater. A possible excitation mechanism is the sudden condensation of metastable steam from a shallow pressurized hydrothermal system as it encounters cool meteoric water in the outer parts of the edifice, perhaps supplied from snow melt.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Differential uplift and incision of the Yakima River terraces, central Washington State

The fault-related Yakima folds deform Miocene basalts and younger deposits of the Columbia Plateau in central Washington State. Geodesy implies ~2 mm/yr of NNE directed shortening across the folds, but until now the distribution and rates of Quaternary deformation among individual structures has been unclear. South of Ellensburg, Washington, the Yakima River cuts a ~600 m deep canyon across several Yakima folds, preserving gravel-mantled strath terraces that record progressive bedrock incision and related rock uplift. Here we integrate cosmogenic isochron burial dating of the strath terrace gravels with lidar analysis and field mapping to quantify rates of Quaternary differential incision and rock uplift across two folds transected by the Yakima River: Manastash and Umtanum Ridge. Isochron burial ages from in situ produced 26 Al and 10 Be at seven sites across the folds date episodes of strath terrace formation over the past ~2.9 Ma. Average bedrock incision rates across the Manastash (~88 m/Myr) and Umtanum Ridge (~46 m/Myr) anticlines are roughly 4 to 8 times higher than rates in the intervening syncline (~14 m/Myr) and outside the canyon (~10 m/Myr). These contrasting rates demonstrate differential bedrock incision driven by ongoing Quaternary rock uplift across the folds at rates corresponding to ~0.13 and ~0.06 mm/yr shortening across postulated master faults dipping 30 ± 10°S beneath the Manastash and Umtanum Ridge anticlines, respectively. The reported Quaternary shortening across the anticlines accounts for ~10% of the ~2 mm/yr geodetic budget, suggesting that other Yakima structures actively accommodate the remaining contemporary deformation.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Long period seismicity and very long period infrasound driven by shallow magmatic degassing at Mount Pagan, Mariana Islands

Long period (LP) seismicity and very long period infrasound (iVLP) were recorded during continuous degassing from Mount Pagan, Mariana Islands, in July 2013 to January 2014. The frequency content of the LP and iVLP events and delay times between the two arrivals were remarkably stable and indicate nearly co-located sources. Using phase-weighted stacking over similar events to dampen noise, we find that the LP source centroid is located 60 m below and 180 m west of the summit vent. The moment tensor reveals a volumetric source modeled as resonance of a subhorizontal sill intersecting a dike. We model the seismoacoustic wavefields with a coupled earth-air 3-D finite difference code. The ratios of pressure to velocity measured at the infrasound arrays are an order of magnitude larger than the synthetic ratios, so the iVLP is not the result of LP energy transmitting into the atmosphere at its epicenter. Based on crater shape and dimensions determined by structure from motion, we model the iVLP as acoustic resonance of an exponential horn. The source of the continuous plume from gas analysis is shallow magmatic degassing, which repeatedly pressurized the dike-sill portion of the conduit over the 7 months of observation. Periodic gas release caused the geologically controlled sill to partially collapse and resonate, while venting of gas at the surface triggered resonance in the crater. LP degassing only accounts for ~12% of total degassing, indicating that most degassing is relatively aseismic and that multiple active pathways exist beneath the vent.

Mount Pagan↗

USGS2016

Fault segmentation: New concepts from the Wasatch Fault Zone, Utah, USA

The question of whether structural segment boundaries along multisegment normal faults such as the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) act as persistent barriers to rupture is critical to seismic hazard analyses. We synthesized late Holocene paleoseismic data from 20 trench sites along the central WFZ to evaluate earthquake rupture length and fault segmentation. For the youngest (<3 ka) and best-constrained earthquakes, differences in earthquake timing across prominent primary segment boundaries, especially for the most recent earthquakes on the north-central WFZ, are consistent with segment-controlled ruptures. However, broadly constrained earthquake times, dissimilar event times along the segments, the presence of smaller-scale (subsegment) boundaries, and areas of complex faulting permit partial-segment and multisegment (e.g., spillover) ruptures that are shorter (~20–40 km) or longer (~60–100 km) than the primary segment lengths (35–59 km). We report a segmented WFZ model that includes 24 earthquakes since ~7 ka and yields mean estimates of recurrence (1.1–1.3 kyr) and vertical slip rate (1.3–2.0 mm/yr) for the segments. However, additional rupture scenarios that include segment boundary spatial uncertainties, floating earthquakes, and multisegment ruptures are necessary to fully address epistemic uncertainties in rupture length. We compare the central WFZ to paleoseismic and historical surface ruptures in the Basin and Range Province and central Italian Apennines and conclude that displacement profiles have limited value for assessing the persistence of segment boundaries but can aid in interpreting prehistoric spillover ruptures. Our comparison also suggests that the probabilities of shorter and longer ruptures on the WFZ need to be investigated.

Utah↗

USGS2016

Tomographic image of a seismically active volcano: Mammoth Mountain, California

High-resolution tomographic P wave, S wave, and V P / V S velocity structure models are derived for Mammoth Mountain, California, using phase data from the Northern California Seismic Network and a temporary deployment of broadband seismometers. An anomalous volume (5.1 × 10 9 to 5.9 × 10 10 m 3 ) of low P and low S wave velocities is imaged beneath Mammoth Mountain, extending from near the surface to a depth of &sim;2 km below sea level. We infer that the reduction in seismic wave velocities is due to the presence of CO 2 distributed in oblate spheroid pores with mean aspect ratio α = 1.6 × 10 −3 to 7.9 × 10 −3 (crack-like pores) and mean gas volume fraction ϕ = 8.1 × 10 −4 to 3.4 × 10 −3 . The pore density parameter κ = 3 ϕ /(4π α ) = na 3 =0.11, where n is the number of pores per cubic meter and a is the mean pore equatorial radius. The total mass of CO 2 is estimated to be 4.6 × 10 9 to 1.9 × 10 11 kg. The local geological structure indicates that the CO 2 contained in the pores is delivered to the surface through fractures controlled by faults and remnant foliation of the bedrock beneath Mammoth Mountain. The total volume of CO 2 contained in the reservoir suggests that given an emission rate of 500 tons day −1 , the reservoir could supply the emission of CO 2 for &sim;25–1040 years before depletion. Continued supply of CO 2 from an underlying magmatic system would significantly prolong the existence of the reservoir.

California↗

USGS2016

Three-dimensional surface deformation derived from airborne interferometric UAVSAR: Application to the Slumgullion Landslide

In order to provide surface geodetic measurements with “landslide-wide” spatial coverage, we develop and validate a method for the characterization of 3-D surface deformation using the unique capabilities of the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) airborne repeat-pass radar interferometry system. We apply our method at the well-studied Slumgullion Landslide, which is 3.9 km long and moves persistently at rates up to ∼2 cm/day. A comparison with concurrent GPS measurements validates this method and shows that it provides reliable and accurate 3-D surface deformation measurements. The UAVSAR-derived vector velocity field measurements accurately capture the sharp boundaries defining previously identified kinematic units and geomorphic domains within the landslide. We acquired data across the landslide during spring and summer and identify that the landslide moves more slowly during summer except at its head, presumably in response to spatiotemporal variations in snowmelt infiltration. In order to constrain the mechanics controlling landslide motion from surface velocity measurements, we present an inversion framework for the extraction of slide thickness and basal geometry from dense 3-D surface velocity fields. We find that the average depth of the Slumgullion Landslide is 7.5 m, several meters less than previous depth estimates. We show that by considering a viscoplastic rheology, we can derive tighter theoretical bounds on the rheological parameter relating mean horizontal flow rate to surface velocity. Using inclinometer data for slow-moving, clay-rich landslides across the globe, we find a consistent value for the rheological parameter of 0.85 ± 0.08.

Colorado↗

USGS2016

M≥7 Earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the Sea of Marmara region, Turkey

We forecast time-independent and time-dependent earthquake ruptures in the Marmara region of Turkey for the next 30 years using a new fault-segmentation model. We also augment time-dependent Brownian Passage Time (BPT) probability with static Coulomb stress changes (ΔCFF) from interacting faults. We calculate M w > 6.5 probability from 26 individual fault sources in the Marmara region. We also consider a multisegment rupture model that allows higher-magnitude ruptures over some segments of the Northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NNAF) beneath the Marmara Sea. A total of 10 different M w =7.0 to M w =8.0 multisegment ruptures are combined with the other regional faults at rates that balance the overall moment accumulation. We use Gaussian random distributions to treat parameter uncertainties (e.g., aperiodicity, maximum expected magnitude, slip rate, and consequently mean recurrence time) of the statistical distributions associated with each fault source. We then estimate uncertainties of the 30-year probability values for the next characteristic event obtained from three different models (Poisson, BPT, and BPT+ΔCFF) using a Monte Carlo procedure. The Gerede fault segment located at the eastern end of the Marmara region shows the highest 30-yr probability, with a Poisson value of 29%, and a time-dependent interaction probability of 48%. We find an aggregated 30-yr Poisson probability of M >7.3 earthquakes at Istanbul of 35%, which increases to 47% if time dependence and stress transfer are considered. We calculate a 2-fold probability gain (ratio time-dependent to time-independent) on the southern strands of the North Anatolian Fault Zone.

Sea if Marmara↗

USGS2016

Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Magnetotelluric investigation of the Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group, East Antarctica

The Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group in East Antarctica have contrasting Archean to Neoproterozoic geological histories and are believed to be juxtaposed along a suture zone that now lies beneath the Sørsdal Glacier. Exact location and age of this suture zone are unknown, as is its relationship to regional deformation associated with the amalgamation of East Gondwana. To image the suture zone, magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica, mainly along a profile crossing the Sørsdal Glacier and regions inland of the Vestfold Hills and Rauer Group islands. Time-frequency analysis of the MT time series yielded three important observations: (1) Wind speeds in excess of &sim;8 m/s reduce coherence between electric and magnetic fields due to charged wind-blown particles of ice and snow. (2) Estimation of the MT transfer function is best between 1000 and 1400 UT when ionospheric Hall currents enhance the magnetic source field. (3) Nonplanar source field effects were minimal but detectable and removed from estimation of the MT transfer function. Inversions of MT data in 2-D and 3-D produce similar resistivity models, where structures in the preferred 3-D resistivity model correlate strongly with regional magnetic data. The electrically conductive Rauer Group is separated from the less conductive Vestfold Hills by a resistive zone under the Sørsdal Glacier, which is interpreted to be caused by oxidation during suturing. Though a suture zone has been imaged, no time constrains on suturing can be made from the MT data.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

The Eastern California Shear Zone as the northward extension of the southern San Andreas Fault

Cluster analysis offers an agnostic way to organize and explore features of the current GPS velocity field without reference to geologic information or physical models using information only contained in the velocity field itself. We have used cluster analysis of the Southern California Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity field to determine the partitioning of Pacific-North America relative motion onto major regional faults. Our results indicate the large-scale kinematics of the region is best described with two boundaries of high velocity gradient, one centered on the Coachella section of the San Andreas Fault and the Eastern California Shear Zone and the other defined by the San Jacinto Fault south of Cajon Pass and the San Andreas Fault farther north. The ~120 km long strand of the San Andreas between Cajon Pass and Coachella Valley (often termed the San Bernardino and San Gorgonio sections) is thus currently of secondary importance and carries lesser amounts of slip over most or all of its length. We show these first order results are present in maps of the smoothed GPS velocity field itself. They are also generally consistent with currently available, loosely bounded geologic and geodetic fault slip rate estimates that alone do not provide useful constraints on the large-scale partitioning we show here. Our analysis does not preclude the existence of smaller blocks and more block boundaries in Southern California. However, attempts to identify smaller blocks along and adjacent to the San Gorgonio section were not successful.

Eastern California Shear Zone↗

USGS2016

“Ductile to brittle” transition in thermally stable antigorite gouge at mantle pressures

General shear experiments on antigorite-rich serpentinite show a transition from ductile (distributed) to brittle (localized) deformation with increasing temperature from 300°C to 500°C at confining pressures from 1 to 2 GPa. The coefficient of friction associated with slip along fractures decreases from 0.23 to 0.07 with an increase in temperature from 300°C to 500°C. Velocity stepping experiments exhibit a positive rate dependence, as parameterized by a-b values, that decrease modestly with increasing temperature from ~0.015 at 300°C to ~0.01 at 500°C. Fractures contain fine-grained foliated antigorite, and there is no evidence of dehydration. All samples have a moderate foliation and show microstructural evidence for both plastic and brittle deformation mechanisms. Under certain conditions the transition to brittle deformation, at high pressures and temperatures in antigorite, might generate earthquakes, which could explain the occurrence of some intermediate-depth seismicity within subduction zones in serpentinized regions that are too cold to induce dehydration.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO 2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

California↗

USGS2016

Lithospheric flexure under the Hawaiian volcanic load: Internal stresses and a broken plate revealed by earthquakes

Several lines of earthquake evidence indicate that the lithospheric plate is broken under the load of the island of Hawai`i, where the geometry of the lithosphere is circular with a central depression. The plate bends concave downward surrounding a stress-free hole, rather than bending concave upward as with past assumptions. Earthquake focal mechanisms show that the center of load stress and the weak hole is between the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea where the load is greatest. The earthquake gap at 21 km depth coincides with the predicted neutral plane of flexure where horizontal stress changes sign. Focal mechanism P axes below the neutral plane display a striking radial pattern pointing to the stress center. Earthquakes above the neutral plane in the north part of the island have opposite stress patterns; T axes tend to be radial. The M 6.2 Honomu and M 6.7 Kiholo main shocks (both at 39 km depth) are below the neutral plane and show radial compression, and the M 6.0 Kiholo aftershock above the neutral plane has tangential compression. Earthquakes deeper than 20 km define a donut of seismicity around the stress center where flexural bending is a maximum. The hole is interpreted as the soft center where the lithospheric plate is broken. Kilauea's deep conduit is seismically active because it is in the ring of maximum bending. A simplified two-dimensional stress model for a bending slab with a load at one end yields stress orientations that agree with earthquake stress axes and radial P axes below the neutral plane. A previous inversion of deep Hawaiian focal mechanisms found a circular solution around the stress center that agrees with the model. For horizontal faults, the shear stress within the bending slab matches the slip in the deep Kilauea seismic zone and enhances outward slip of active flanks.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Forcing and variability of nonstationary rip currents

Surface wave transformation and the resulting nearshore circulation along a section of coast with strong alongshore bathymetric gradients outside the surf zone are modeled for a consecutive 4 week time period. The modeled hydrodynamics are compared to in situ measurements of waves and currents collected during the Nearshore Canyon Experiment and indicate that for the entire range of observed conditions, the model performance is similar to other studies along this stretch of coast. Strong alongshore wave height gradients generate rip currents that are observed by remote sensing data and predicted qualitatively well by the numerical model. Previous studies at this site have used idealized scenarios to link the rip current locations to undulations in the offshore bathymetry but do not explain the dichotomy between permanent offshore bathymetric features and intermittent rip current development. Model results from the month‐long simulation are used to track the formation and location of rip currents using hourly statistics, and results show that the direction of the incoming wave energy strongly controls whether rip currents form. In particular, most of the offshore wave spectra were bimodal and we find that the ratio of energy contained in each mode dictates rip current development, and the alongshore rip current position is controlled by the incident wave period. Additionally, model simulations performed with and without updating the nearshore morphology yield no significant change in the accuracy of the predicted surf zone hydrodyanmics indicating that the large‐scale offshore features (e.g., submarine canyon) predominately control the nearshore wave‐circulation system.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2015

Natural and unnatural oil slicks in the Gulf of Mexico

When wind speeds are 2 – 10 m s −1 , reflective contrasts in the ocean surface make oil slicks visible to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) under all sky conditions. Neural network analysis of satellite SAR images quantified the magnitude and distribution of surface oil in the Gulf of Mexico from persistent, natural seeps and from the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) discharge. This analysis identified 914 natural oil seep zones across the entire Gulf of Mexico in pre-2010 data. Their &sim;0.1 µm slicks covered an aggregated average of 775 km 2 . Assuming an average volume of 77.5 m 3 over an 8 – 24 h lifespan per oil slick, the floating oil indicates a surface flux of 2.5 – 9.4 × 10 4 m 3 y −1 . Oil from natural slicks was regionally concentrated: 68%, 25%, 7%, and <1% of the total was observed in the NW, SW, NE and SE Gulf, respectively. This reflects differences in basin history and hydrocarbon generation. SAR images from 2010 showed that the 87-day DWH discharge produced a surface-oil footprint fundamentally different from background seepage, with an average ocean area of 11,200 km 2 (SD 5,028) and a volume of 22,600 m 3 (SD 5,411). Peak magnitudes of oil were detected during equivalent, &sim;14-day intervals around 23 May and 18 June, when wind speeds remained <5 m s −1 . Over this interval, aggregated volume of floating oil decreased by 21%; area covered increased by 49% ( p  < .1), potentially altering its ecological impact. The most likely causes were increased applications of dispersant and surface burning operations.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2016

Observations of wave transformation over a fringing coral reef and the importance of low-frequency waves and offshore water levels to runup, overwash, and coastal flooding

Many low-lying tropical islands are susceptible to sea level rise and often subjected to overwash and flooding during large wave events. To quantify wave dynamics and wave-driven water levels on fringing coral reefs, a 5 month deployment of wave gauges and a current meter was conducted across two shore-normal transects on Roi-Namur Island in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These observations captured two large wave events that had waves with maximum heights greater than 6 m with peak periods of 16 s over the fore reef. The larger event coincided with a peak spring tide, leading to energetic, highly skewed infragravity (0.04–0.004 Hz) and very low frequency (0.004–0.001 Hz) waves at the shoreline, which reached heights of 1.0 and 0.7 m, respectively. Water surface elevations, combined with wave runup, reached 3.7 m above the reef bed at the innermost reef flat adjacent to the toe of the beach, resulting in flooding of inland areas. This overwash occurred during a 3 h time window that coincided with high tide and maximum low-frequency reef flat wave heights. The relatively low-relief characteristics of this narrow reef flat may further drive shoreline amplification of low-frequency waves due to resonance modes. These results (1) demonstrate how the coupling of high offshore water levels with low-frequency reef flat wave energetics can lead to large impacts along fringing reef-lined shorelines, such as island overwash, and (2) lend support to the hypothesis that predicted higher sea levels will lead to more frequent occurrences of these extreme events, negatively impacting coastal resources and infrastructure.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

USGS2016

Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗