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USGS2014

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Ecological effects of establishing a 40-year oasis protection system in a Northwestern China Desert

Aims: Desertification around oasis areas is a serious problem in semi-arid and arid regions, which is expected to continue into the future due to a rapidly increasing human population. Oasis protection systems are created to reverse desertification by recovering degraded soil and vegetation properties and improving ecosystem services. Most research has focused on the short-term effects of a single restoration practice using an individual vegetation or soil metric, while more complete assessments along a gradient of an entire oasis protection system have seldom been studied. In this study, soil and vegetation properties were measured along a 40-year oasis-protection system to assess the effectiveness of increasing land protection belts along a gradient from prohibiting grazing, to fencing shrubland, to establishing shrub- and tree-plantations in northwestern China. Methods: Three sites in each belt of the oasis-protection system were selected to measure soil texture, soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, pH, electrical conductivity, and eight ions under the plant canopy and in the inter-canopy area, as well as to investigate plant community composition, diversity and productivity. Wind velocity and sand transportation rates were measured in each of the five belts during storm events. Results: Compared with shifting dunes in unprotected desert settings, the wind velocity and sand transportation rate decreased by 75 and 98%, respectively, when spring storms passed through the most protected plantation belts in the oasis system. Soil organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus significantly increased, along with the silt and clay contents, across the protection gradient, and reached their highest levels at the shrub- and tree-plantation belts. Similarly, the density, cover, and biomass of herbaceous plants also increased along the gradient. Despite these positive effects, there was a significant increase in soil salinity, sodicity, and desiccation at the shrub- and tree-plantation belts, which may negatively affect the future sustainability of the oasis-protection system under a predicted future drier and warming climate. Conclusions Although shrub and tree plantations improve soil fertility and favor the development of the herbaceous plant community, their environmental consequences (i.e., soil salinization and desiccation) need to be evaluated in the context of ecosystem restoration over the long-term, especially in arid regions.

Catena↗

USGS2014

Interactive effects of climate change with nutrients, mercury, and freshwater acidification on key taxa in the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative region

The North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative LCC (NA LCC) is a public–private partnership that provides information to support conservation decisions that may be affected by global climate change (GCC) and other threats. The NA LCC region extends from southeast Virginia to the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Within this region, the US National Climate Assessment documented increases in air temperature, total precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation events, and rising sea level, and predicted more drastic changes. Here, we synthesize literature on the effects of GCC interacting with selected contaminant, nutrient, and environmental processes to adversely affect natural resources within this region. Using a case study approach, we focused on 3 stressors with sufficient NA LCC region-specific information for an informed discussion. We describe GCC interactions with a contaminant (Hg) and 2 complex environmental phenomena—freshwater acidification and eutrophication. We also prepared taxa case studies on GCC- and GCC-contaminant/nutrient/process effects on amphibians and freshwater mussels. Several avian species of high conservation concern have blood Hg concentrations that have been associated with reduced nesting success. Freshwater acidification has adversely affected terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Adirondacks and other areas of the region that are slowly recovering due to decreased emissions of N and sulfur oxides. Eutrophication in many estuaries within the region is projected to increase from greater storm runoff and less denitrification in riparian wetlands. Estuarine hypoxia may be exacerbated by increased stratification. Elevated water temperature favors algal species that produce harmful algal blooms (HABs). In several of the region's estuaries, HABs have been associated with bird die-offs. In the NA LCC region, amphibian populations appear to be declining. Some species may be adversely affected by GCC through higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. GCC may affect freshwater mussel populations via altered stream temperatures and increased sediment loading during heavy storms. Freshwater mussels are sensitive to un-ionized ammonia that more toxic at higher temperatures. We recommend studying the interactive effects of GCC on generation and bioavailability of methylmercury and how GCC-driven shifts in bird species distributions will affect avian exposure to methylmercury. Research is needed on how decreases in acid deposition concurrent with GCC will alter the structure and function of sensitive watersheds and surface waters. Studies are needed to determine how GCC will affect HABs and avian disease, and how more severe and extensive hypoxia will affect fish and shellfish populations. Regarding amphibians, we suggest research on 1) thermal tolerance and moisture requirements of species of concern, 2) effects of multiple stressors (temperature, desiccation, contaminants, nutrients), and 3) approaches to mitigate impacts of increased temperature and seasonal drought. We recommend studies to assess which mussel species and populations are vulnerable and which are resilient to rising stream temperatures, hydrological shifts, and ionic pollutants, all of which are influenced by GCC.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2012

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Assessing stormwater control measure inventories from 23 cities in the United States

Since the 1987 Clean Water Act Section 319 amendment, the United States Government has required and funded the development of nonpoint source pollution programs with about $5 billion dollars. Despite these expenditures, nonpoint source pollution from urban watersheds is still a significant cause of impaired waters in the United States. Urban stormwater management has rapidly evolved over recent decades with decision-making made at a local or city-scale. To address the need for a better understanding of how stormwater management has been implemented in different cities, we used stormwater control measure (SCM) network data from 23 United States cities and assessed what physical, climatic, socioeconomic, and/or regulatory explanatory variables, if any, are related to SCM assemblages at the municipal scale. Spearman's correlation and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were used to investigate relationships between explanatory variables and SCM types and assemblages of SCMs in each city. The results from these analyses showed that for the cities assessed, physical explanatory variables (e.g., impervious percentage and depth to water table) explained the greatest portion of variability in SCM assemblages. Additionally, it was found that cities with combined sewers favored filters, swales and strips, and infiltrators over basins, and cities that are under consent decrees with the EPA tended to include filters more frequently in their SCM inventories. Future work can build on the SCM assemblages used in this study and their explanatory variables to better understand the differences and drivers of differences in SCM effectiveness across cities, improve watershed modeling, and investigate city- and watershed-scale impacts of SCM assemblages

Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustain↗

USGS2025

Identifying strategies to manage boreal forests: Simulating moose and timber management scenarios at a landscape scale in the face of changing environmental conditions

There are ongoing debates among different stakeholders about which forest and ungulate management strategies will sustain high levels of timber and animal harvest and maintain important ecosystem functions under climate change. Ungulate-forest interactions are complex, including periods where forest regeneration is sensitive to browsing pressure, making it difficult to predict the consequences of a given strategy over time. To aid decision-making, we simulated the impacts of moose browsing on forest succession under 18 different combinations of moose ( Alces alces ) harvest rate levels and forest management scenarios in a boreal forest landscape in southern Sweden given projected changes in forest growth due to climate change. We found that the current management practices are important for sustaining a moose-forest system. Increasing moose harvest rates led to slightly smaller moose populations, larger estimates of landscape carrying capacity, and less biomass removal of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), a commercially valuable species. However, minor changes in the moose harvest were hardly affecting timber production. Increasing the timber harvest rotation time led to the highest estimates of Scots pine biomass, while thinning younger cohorts lead to the highest estimates of Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) biomass. These changes came without much effect to moose population dynamics. However, the increased broadleaf production scenario had a very large positive effect on total aboveground live biomass of deciduous species and on landscape carrying capacity and moose density. This scenario subsequently resulted in the greatest estimates of biomass removal of Scots pine, highlighting the tradeoffs associated with increased moose production.

European Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2009

Ground and surface temperature variability for remote sensing of soil moisture in a heterogeneous landscape

At the Little River Watershed (LRW) heterogeneous landscape near Tifton Georgia US an in situ network of stations operated by the US Department of Agriculture-Agriculture Research Service-Southeast Watershed Research Lab (USDA-ARS-SEWRL) was established in 2003 for the long term study of climatic and soil biophysical processes. To develop an accurate interpolation of the in situ readings that can be used to produce distributed representations of soil moisture (SM) and energy balances at the landscape scale for remote sensing studies, we studied (1) the temporal and spatial variations of ground temperature (GT) and infra red temperature (IRT) within 30 by 30 m plots around selected network stations; (2) the relationship between the readings from the eight 30 by 30 m plots and the point reading of the network stations for the variables SM, GT and IRT; and (3) the spatial and temporal variation of GT and IRT within agriculture landuses: grass, orchard, peanuts, cotton and bare soil in the surrounding landscape. The results showed high correlations between the station readings and the adjacent 30 by 30 m plot average value for SM; high seasonal independent variation in the GT and IRT behavior among the eight 30 by 30 m plots; and site specific, in-field homogeneity in each 30 by 30 m plot. We found statistical differences in the GT and IRT between the different landuses as well as high correlations between GT and IRT regardless of the landuse. Greater standard deviations for IRT than for GT (in the range of 2-4) were found within the 30 by 30 m, suggesting that when a single point reading for this variable is selected for the validation of either remote sensing data or water-energy models, errors may occur. The results confirmed that in this landscape homogeneous 30 by 30 m plots can be used as landscape spatial units for soil moisture and ground temperature studies. Under this landscape conditions small plots can account for local expressions of environmental processes, decreasing the errors and uncertainties in remote sensing estimates caused by landscape heterogeneity.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2022

Plague and trace metals in natural systems

All pathogenic organisms are exposed to abiotic influences such as the microclimates and chemical constituents of their environments. Even those pathogens that exist primarily within their hosts or vectors can be influenced directly or indirectly. Yersinia pestis , the flea-borne bacterium causing plague, is influenced by climate and its survival in soil suggests a potentially strong influence of soil chemistry. We summarize a series of controlled studies conducted over four decades in Russia by Dr. Evgeny Rotshild and his colleagues that investigated correlations between trace metals in soils, plants, and insects, and the detection of plague in free-ranging small mammals. Trace metal concentrations in plots where plague was detected were up to 20-fold higher or lower compared to associated control plots, and these differences were >2-fold in 22 of 38 comparisons. The results were statistically supported in eight studies involving seven host species in three families and two orders of small mammals. Plague tended to be positively associated with manganese and cobalt, and the plague association was negative for copper, zinc, and molybdenum. In additional studies, these investigators detected similar connections between pasturellosis and concentrations of some chemical elements. A One Health narrative should recognize that the chemistry of soil and water may facilitate or impede epidemics in humans and epizootics in non-human animals.

International Journal of Environmental Research an↗

USGS1983

Late Holocene ice wedges near Fairbanks, Alaska, USA: Environmental setting and history of growth

Test trenches excavated into muskeg near Fairbanks in 1969 exposed a polygonal network of active ice wedges. The wedges occur in peat that has accumulated since about 3500 yr BP and have grown episodically as the permafrost table fluctuated in response to fires, other local site conditions and perhaps regional climatic changes. Radiocarbon dates suggest one or two episodes of ice-wedge growth between about 3500 and 2000 yr BP as woody peat accumulated at the site. Subsequent wedge truncation evidently followed a fire that charred the peat. Younger peat exhibits facies changes between sedge-rich components that filled troughs over the ice wedges and woody bryophytic deposits that formed beyond the troughs. A final episode of wedge development took place within the past few hundred years. Pollen data from the site indicate that boreal forest was present throughout the past 6000 yr, but that it underwent a gradual transition from a predominantly deciduous to a spruce-dominated assemblage. This change may reflect either local site conditions or a more general climatic shift to cooler, moister summers in late Holocene time. The history of ice-wedge growth shows that wedges can form and grow to more than 1 m apparent width under mean annual temperatures that probably are close to those of the Fairbanks area today (-3.5°C) and under vegetation cover similar to that of the interior Alaskan boreal forest. The commonly held belief that ice wedges develop only below mean annual air temperatures of -6 to -8°C in the zone of continuous permafrost is invalid.

Alaska↗

USGS2001

Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem

A primary focus of coastal science during the past 3 decades has been the question: How does anthropogenic nutrient enrichment cause change in the structure or function of nearshore coastal ecosystems? This theme of environmental science is recent, so our conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem continues to change rapidly. In this review, I suggest that the early (Phase I) conceptual model was strongly influenced by limnologists, who began intense study of lake eutrophication by the 1960s. The Phase I model emphasized changing nutrient input as a signal, and responses to that signal as increased phytoplankton biomass and primary production, decomposition of phytoplankton-derived organic matter, and enhanced depletion of oxygen from bottom waters. Coastal research in recent decades has identified key differences in the responses of lakes and coastal-estuarine ecosystems to nutrient enrichment. The contemporary (Phase II) conceptual model reflects those differences and includes explicit recognition of (1) system-specific attributes that act as a filter to modulate the responses to enrichment (leading to large differences among estuarine-coastal systems in their sensitivity to nutrient enrichment); and (2) a complex suite of direct and indirect responses including linked changes in: water transparency, distribution of vascular plants and biomass of macroalgae, sediment biogeochemistry and nutrient cycling, nutrient ratios and their regulation of phytoplankton community composition, frequency of toxic/harmful algal blooms, habitat quality for metazoans, reproduction/growth/survival of pelagic and benthic invertebrates, and subtle changes such as shifts in the seasonality of ecosystem functions. Each aspect of the Phase II model is illustrated here with examples from coastal ecosystems around the world. In the last section of this review I present one vision of the next (Phase III) stage in the evolution of our conceptual model, organized around 5 questions that will guide coastal science in the early 21st century: (1) How do system-specific attributes constrain or amplify the responses of coastal ecosystems to nutrient enrichment? (2) How does nutrient enrichment interact with other stressors (toxic contaminants, fishing harvest, aquaculture, nonindigenous species, habitat loss, climate change, hydrologic manipulations) to change coastal ecosystems? (3) How are responses to multiple stressors linked? (4) How does human-induced change in the coastal zone impact the Earth system as habitat for humanity and other species? (5) How can a deeper scientific understanding of the coastal eutrophication problem be applied to develop tools for building strategies at ecosystem restoration or rehabilitation?

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2016

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2010

Effects of Changes in Irrigation Practices and Aquifer Development on Groundwater Discharge to the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico

Since 1990, about 75 acres of black mangroves have died in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve near Salinas, Puerto Rico. Although many factors can contribute to the mortality of mangroves, changes in irrigation practices, rainfall, and water use resulted in as much as 25 feet of drawdown in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer in the vicinity of the reserve between 1986 and 2002. To clarify the issue, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources, conducted a study to ascertain how aquifer development and changes in irrigation practices have affected groundwater levels and groundwater flow to the Mar Negro area of the reserve. Changes in groundwater flow to the mangrove swamp and bay from 1986 to 2004 were estimated in this study by developing and calibrating a numerical groundwater flow model. The transient simulations indicate that prior to 1994, high irrigation return flows more than offset the effect of reduced groundwater withdrawals. In this case, the simulated discharge to the coast in the modeled area was 19 million gallons per day. From 1994 through 2004, furrow irrigation was completely replaced by micro-drip irrigation, thus eliminating return flows and the simulated average coastal discharge was 7 million gallons per day, a reduction of 63 percent. The simulated average groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the reserve from 1986 to 1993 was 2 million gallons per day, compared to an average simulated discharge of 0.2 million gallons per day from 1994 to 2004. The average annual rainfall for each of these periods was 38 inches. The groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps in the Jobos Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve was estimated at about 0.5 million gallons per day for 2003-2004 because of higher than average annual rainfall during these 2 years. The groundwater flow model was used to test five alternatives for increasing groundwater discharge to the coastal mangrove swamps to approximately 1.4 million gallons per day: (1) artificially recharging the aquifer with injection wells or (2) by increasing irrigation return flow by going back to furrow irrigation; (3) termination of groundwater withdrawals near the mangroves; (4) reduction of groundwater withdrawals at irrigation wells by 50 percent; and (5) a combination of alternatives 2 and 4 increasing irrigation return flows and decreasing irrigation withdrawals. Each alternative assumed average climatic conditions and groundwater withdrawals at 2004 rates. Alternative 1 required 1.5 million gallons per day of injected water. Alternative 2 required flooding 958 acres with a rate of 1.84 million gallons per day if no crops are grown. Alternative 3 required the termination of 2.44 million gallons per day of withdrawals to achieve 1.34 million gallons per day of discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 4 did not achieve the objective with only 0.80 million gallons per day simulated discharge to the mangroves, while requiring a 1.26 million gallon per day reduction in groundwater withdrawals. Alternative 5 required flooding fields with additional 1.13 million gallons of day and the same reduction in groundwater withdrawals, but did achieve the objective of about 1.4 million gallons per day discharge to the mangroves. Alternative 1, incorporating injection wells near the reserve required the least amount of water to raise groundwater levels and maintain discharge of 1.4 million gallons per day through the mangroves.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2020

Ancient Martian aeolian sand dune deposits recorded in the stratigraphy of Valles Marineris and implications for past climates

Aeolian sediment transport, deposition, and erosion have been ongoing throughout Mars's history. This record of widespread aeolian processes is preserved in landforms and geologic units that retain important clues about past environmental conditions including wind patterns. In this study we describe landforms within Melas Chasma, Valles Marineris, that occur in distinct groups with linear to crescentic shapes, arranged with a characteristic wavelength; some possess slope profiles analogous to modern sand dunes yet show evidence for lithification. Based on the features' dimensions, asymmetry, and spatial patterns relative to modern equivalents, we interpret these landforms to be two classes of aeolian bedforms: decameter‐scale megaripples and sand dunes. The presence of superposed erosional features and depositional units indicates that these landforms were cemented and likely ancient. Melas paleodunes are found atop Hesperian‐aged layered deposits, but we estimate them to be younger, likely lithified in the Amazonian period. Although a range of degradation was observed, some paleodunes are >10 m tall and maintain steep lee sides (>25°), an uncommon scenario for terrestrial examples as other geologic processes lead to dune obliteration. The preserved paleobedform geometries are largely consistent with those of modern aeolian indicators, suggesting no major shifts in wind regime or contributing boundary conditions. Finally, we propose that their appearance and context require sequential periods of dune migration, stabilization following catastrophic burial, cementation, differential erosion, exposure, and burial. The presence of wholly preserved duneforms appears to be more common on Mars compared to the Earth and may signal something important about Martian landscape evolution.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

USGS2018

Evolving environmental and geometric controls on Columbia Glacier’s continued retreat

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Proceedings of the 12th Biennial Conference of research on the Colorado Plateau

Introduction The Colorado Plateau is a physiographic region that encompasses 330,000 square kilometers in parts of four states in the southwestern United States (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, and Arizona). Known for its high deserts, the Colorado Plateau also includes isolated mountains, high plateaus, and rugged canyons. Not only is the region topographically diverse, but geologically, biologically, and culturally diverse as well. The landscape is managed by Federal entities including the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the U.S. Forest Service; Tribal nations including the Navajo Nation, Kaibab Paiute, Mountain Ute, Southern Ute, Hopi, Zuni, Hualapai, Havasupai, and White Mountain Apache Tribes; State land and wildlife management agencies; and privately owned holdings, creating complex interactions and management challenges. Population growth, increased tourism to Federal and State lands, and energy development have increased water demands and altered land-use patterns, and these changes have emerged as management challenges facing the people working and living in the region. Climate change, particularly the ongoing drought, has exacerbated the effects of population growth, land-use change, and other stressors such as invasive species. As managers seek solutions to the challenges facing the region’s natural and cultural resources, the Biennial Conference of Science and Management of the Colorado Plateau has become an important venue for exchanging information about emerging management concerns and recent scientific research. Each biennial conference has sought to promote discussion, information sharing, and productive communication among the managers, scientists, students, administrators, tribal representatives, and others who attend the conference with the goal of enhancing the use of the best available science to manage the region’s incomparable natural and cultural resources. The publication and dissemination of a conference proceedings series expands the reach of the conference beyond those people in attendance and creates a record on the research presented. The idea of producing a conference proceedings, and its subsequent publication, first occurred in 1993 following the first biennial conference in 1991. A published volume of contributed papers has followed each subsequent biennial conference, including this volume. The venue for publishing proceedings has changed over the years and has included the National Park Service, the Government Printing Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, and University of Arizona Press. Recently, van Riper and others (2015) published a compilation of the abstracts from the 11 previous conference proceedings. Collectively, the proceedings highlight approximately 25 years of natural- and cultural-resources research, promoting the integration of research with resource management across the Colorado Plateau. This volume is freely downloadable by the public, thereby further expanding the influence of this conference beyond the Colorado Plateau. The 12th Biennial Conference held in Flagstaff, Arizona, from September 16 to 19, 2013, covered a range of topics in the physical, biological, and socio-cultural sciences. The conference was organized and hosted by Northern Arizona University’s ( NAU) Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, the Colorado Plateau Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit, and the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center. Financial and in-kind support was provided by a wide range of organizations including the U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Grand Canyon Trust, Colorado Plateau Research Station, and various NAU entities. NAU sponsors include the Landscape Conservation Initiative, School of Forestry, School of Earth Science and Environmental Sustainability, Office of the Provost, and Office of the Vice President of Research. Contributors to these proceedings include researchers and managers from Federal, State, and Tribal governments, universities, private entities, and non-profit organizations. In this regard, this conference has wide-ranging support and participation among private and public entities involved in the science and management of natural resources on the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2023

Arctic-boreal lakes of interior Alaska dominated by contemporary carbon

Northern high-latitude lakes are critical sites for carbon processing and serve as potential conduits for the emission of permafrost-derived carbon and greenhouse gases. However, the fate and emission pathways of permafrost carbon in these systems remain uncertain. Here, we used the natural abundance of radiocarbon to identify and trace the predominant sources of methane, carbon dioxide, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon in nine lakes within the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in interior Alaska, a discontinuous permafrost region with high landscape heterogeneity and susceptibility to climate, permafrost, and hydrological changes. We find that although Yukon Flats lakes primarily process young carbon (modern to 1290 ± 60 years before present), permafrost-derived carbon is present in some of the sampled lakes and contributes, at most, 30 ± 10% of the dissolved carbon in lake surface waters. Apportionment of young carbon and legacy carbon (carbon with radiocarbon age ⩾5000 years before present) is decoupled among the dissolved inorganic and organic carbon species, with methane showing a stronger legacy signature. Our observations suggest that permafrost-thaw-related transport of carbon through Yukon Flats lacustrine ecosystems and into the atmosphere is small, and likely regulated by surficial sediments, permafrost distribution, wildfire occurrence, or masked by contemporary carbon processes. The heterogeneity of lakes across our study area and northern landscapes more broadly cautions against using any one region (e.g. Yedoma permafrost lakes) to upscale their contribution across the pan-Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Detection, emission estimation and risk prediction of forest fires in China using satellite sensors and simulation models in the past three decades-An overview

Forest fires have major impact on ecosystems and greatly impact the amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. This paper presents an overview in the forest fire detection, emission estimation, and fire risk prediction in China using satellite imagery, climate data, and various simulation models over the past three decades. Since the 1980s, remotely-sensed data acquired by many satellites, such as NOAA/AVHRR, FY-series, MODIS, CBERS, and ENVISAT, have been widely utilized for detecting forest fire hot spots and burned areas in China. Some developed algorithms have been utilized for detecting the forest fire hot spots at a sub-pixel level. With respect to modeling the forest burning emission, a remote sensing data-driven Net Primary productivity (NPP) estimation model was developed for estimating forest biomass and fuel. In order to improve the forest fire risk modeling in China, real-time meteorological data, such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction，have been used as the model input for improving prediction of forest fire occurrence and its behavior. Shortwave infrared (SWIR) and near infrared (NIR) channels of satellite sensors have been employed for detecting live fuel moisture content (FMC), and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for evaluating the forest vegetation condition and its moisture status.

International Journal of Environmental Research an↗

USGS2025

Bacterial community diversity and potential eco-physiological roles in toxigenic blooms composed of Microcystis, Aphanizomenon or Planktothrix

Cyanobacterial toxicity, cyanotoxins, and their impact on aquatic ecosystems and human health are well documented. In comparison, less is known about bloom-associated bacterial communities. Co-occurring bacteria can influence bloom development, physiology and collapse, and may also provide a niche for pathogenic bacteria. Existing research focuses on the cyanosphere of Microcystis -dominated blooms, despite the increasing prevalence of filamentous genera ( Aphanizomenon and Planktothrix ). This pilot study aimed to broaden our understanding of the bacterial consortia attached to morphologically distinct cyanobacteria (coccoid and filamentous) dominating phytoplankton communities and to explore their potential roles in amplifying the impacts of cyanobacterial blooms. We investigated four shallow freshwater bodies across three continents and two climate zones: an urban pond in the USA, a dammed reservoir and a natural lake in Poland, and an urban water body in Singapore. Amplicon sequencing (16S rRNA gene) was used to characterize bacterial communities, while shotgun metagenomics identified nitrogen- and phosphorus-cycling genes to infer potential eco-physiological functions. Cyanobacteria dominated bacterioplankton assemblages at all sites (>35.6%), with bloom composition influencing toxigenic profiles. A mixed bloom of Microcystis , Snowella , and Aphanizomenon had the broadest range of cyanotoxin synthetase genes ( mcy E, cyr J, ana F and sxt A). Microcystis blooms correlated with increased Roseomonas , while Planktothrix co-occurred with Flavobacterium – both bacteria likely contribute to nutrient-cycling within blooms and represent potential opportunistic pathogens for aquatic organisms and humans. The Microcystis cyanosphere exhibited the highest number of significant positive correlations with bacteria (19 relations), compared to Planktothrix and Aphanizomenon (11 and 2 relations, respectively). Non-diazotrophic blooms of Microcystis and Planktothrix showed greater abundances of nitrogen – ( ure B, gln A, nar B, and nar HZ) and phosphorus-cycling genes ( pho BHPR and ppk 1), indicating a strong dependence on associated bacteria for nutrient acquisition compared to diazotrophic Aphanizomenon . These findings suggest that Aphanizomenon -dominated blooms may be sustained by simpler microbiomes. Our results provide preliminary evidence of cyanosphere heterogeneity potentially shaped by the dominance or coexistence of three morphologically and eco-physiologically distinct genera of cyanobacteria. A comprehensive knowledge of the taxonomy and functional roles of bloom-associated microbiomes is therefore essential to understand bloom activity, evaluate the environmental threat, and develop effective strategies for prevention and mitigation.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗