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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2023

Knowledge coproduction on the impact of decisions for waterbird habitat in a changing climate

Scientists, resource managers, and decision-makers increasingly use knowledge co-production to guide the stewardship of future landscapes under climate change. This process was applied in the California Central Valley, USA to solve complex conservation problems, where managed wetlands and croplands are flooded between fall and spring to support some of the largest concentrations of shorebirds and waterfowl in the world. We co-produced scenario narratives, spatially-explicit flooded waterbird habitat models, data products, and new knowledge about climate adaptation potential. We document our co-production process, and using the co-produced models, we ask: “when and where do management actions make a difference?” and “when does climate override these actions?” The outcomes of this process provide lessons learned on how to co-create usable information and how to increase climate adaptive capacity in a highly managed landscape. We found that: 1) actions to restore wetlands and prioritize their water supply create habitat outcomes resilient to climate change impacts particularly in March, when habitat is most limited, 2) land protection combined with management can increase the ecosystem's resilience to climate change, and 3) the uptake and use of this information was influenced by the roles of different stakeholders, plus rapidly changing water policies, discrepancies in decision-making time frames, and immediate crises of extreme drought. While a broad stakeholder group contributed knowledge to scenario narratives and model development, to co-produce usable information, data products were tailored to a small set of decision contexts, leading to fewer stakeholder participants over time. A boundary organization convened stakeholders across a large landscape, and early adopters helped to build legitimacy, yet broad-scale use of climate adaptation knowledge will depend on state and local policies, engagement with decision-makers that have legislative and budgetary authority, and the capacity to fit data products to specific decision needs.

California↗
USGS2023

Creating conservation strategies with value-focused thinking

Biodiversity and human well-being strategies are only as good as the set of ideas that people think about. This article evaluates value-focused thinking (VFT), a framework that focuses on creating objectives and strategy ideas that are responsive to the objectives. We performed a proof-of-concept study of VFT on six planning teams at a global conservation organization. We developed a package of support materials, including session agendas, a virtual facilitation template, facilitator's guide, and evaluation questionnaires. The study tested whether VFT resulted in a set of quality strategies, resulted in participant satisfaction, and was scalable, meaning that it could be facilitated by someone newly trained in VFT and result in quality strategies and participant satisfaction, as compared to an experienced facilitator. Net response indicated positive quality ratings for the set of strategies per team. Respondents indicated positive satisfaction overall, though it was higher for objectives than for strategies. Among the participants with previous experience, all were at least as satisfied with their VFT strategies compared to previously developed strategies, and none were less satisfied (P = 0.001). Changes in participant satisfaction were not related to facilitator type (P > 0.10). In addition, we found that some participants had a premature sense of shared understanding of important values and interests before entering the study, which VFT strengthened. This study highlights the advantages of structuring the development and evaluation of conservation planning frameworks.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2023

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have experienced sharp declines over the last 60 years driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. In recent decades, modern climate change has amplified these pressures. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To understand the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we systematically reviewed published empirical relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. We used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. We found that grassland birds were likely to experience both positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation, with moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation potentially benefiting some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reducing abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (< 1 month or ≥ 1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life history strategies of various species, and species’ tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2023

Genetic erosion in an endangered desert fish during a multidecadal megadrought despite long-term supportive breeding

Human water use combined with a recent megadrought have reduced river and stream flow through the Southwestern United States and led to periodic drying of formerly perennial river segments. Reductions in snowmelt runoff and increased extent of drying collectively threaten short-lived, obligate aquatic species, including the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. This species experiences ‘boom-and-bust’ population dynamics where large fluctuations in abundance are expected to lower estimates of effective population size and erode genetic diversity over time. Rates of diversity loss are also affected by additions of hatchery-origin fish used to supplement the wild population. We leveraged demographic and genetic data from wild and hatchery individuals to understand the relationship of genetic diversity and effective population size to abundance over the last two decades. Genetic diversity was low during the early 2000s, but diversity and demographic metrics stabilized after the hatchery program was initiated and environmental conditions improved. Yet, from 2017 onward, allelic diversity declined (Cohen's d = 1.34) and remains low despite hatchery stocking and brief wild population recovery. Across the time series, single-sample estimates of effective population size (N eD ) were positively associated ( r = 0.53) with wild/total abundance, but as the proportion of hatchery-origin spawners increased, N eD was reduced ( r = -0.55). Megadrought limits wild spawner abundance and precludes refreshment of hatchery brood stocks with wild fish, hence we predict a riverine population increasingly dominated by hatchery-origin individuals and accelerated loss of genetic diversity despite supplementation. We recommend an adaptive and accelerated management plan that integrates river flow management and hatchery operations to slow the pace of genetic diversity loss exacerbated by megadrought.

New Mexico↗
USGS2023

Identifying predictors of translocation success in rare plant species

The fundamental goal of a rare plant translocation is to create self-sustaining populations with the evolutionary resilience to persist in the long-term. Yet most plant translocation syntheses focus on a few factors influencing short-term benchmarks of success (e.g., survival and reproduction). Short-term benchmarks can be misleading when trying to infer future growth and viability because the factors that promote establishment may differ from those required for long-term persistence. We assembled a large ( n = 275) and broadly representative dataset of well-documented and monitored (7.9 years on average) at-risk plant translocations to identify the most important site attributes, management techniques, and species traits for six life-cycle benchmarks and population metrics of translocation success. Using the random forest algorithm, we found that drivers of translocation outcomes varied across timeframes and metrics of success. Management techniques had the greatest relative influence on the attainment of life-cycle benchmarks and short-term population trends while site attributes and species traits were more important for population persistence and longer-term trends. Specifically, large founder sizes increased the potential for reproduction and recruitment into the next generation, while declining habitat quality and the outplanting of species with low seed production led to increased extinction risks and a reduction in potential reproductive output in the long-term, respectively. We also detected novel interactions between some of the most important drivers, such as an increased probability of next-generation recruitment in species with greater seed production rates, but only when coupled with large founder sizes. Since most significant barriers to plant translocation success can be overcome by improving techniques or resolving site-level issues through early intervention and management, we suggest that by combining long-term monitoring with adaptive management, translocation programs can enhance the prospects of achieving long-term success.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

The geographic extent of bird populations affected by renewable-energy development

Bird populations are declining globally. Wind and solar energy can reduce emissions of fossil fuels that drive anthropogenic climate change, yet renewable-energy production represents a potential threat to bird species. Surveys to assess potential effects at renewable-energy facilities are exclusively local, and the geographic extent encompassed by birds killed at these facilities is largely unknown, which creates challenges for minimizing and mitigating the population-level and cumulative effects of these fatalities. We performed geospatial analyses of stable hydrogen isotope data obtained from feathers of 871 individuals of 24 bird species found dead at solar- and wind-energy facilities in California (USA). Most species had individuals with a mix of origins, ranging from 23% to 98% nonlocal. Mean minimum distances to areas of likely origin for nonlocal individuals were as close as 97 to >1250 km, and these minimum distances were larger for species found at solar-energy facilities in deserts than at wind-energy facilities in grasslands (Cohen's d = 6.5). Fatalities were drawn from an estimated 30–100% of species’ desingated ranges, and this percentage was significantly smaller for species with large ranges found at wind facilities (Pearson's r = −0.67). Temporal patterns in the geographic origin of fatalities suggested that migratory movements and nonmigratory movements, such as dispersal and nomadism, influence exposure to fatality risk for these birds. Our results illustrate the power of using stable isotope data to assess the geographic extent of renewable-energy fatalities on birds. As the buildout of renewable-energy facilities continues, accurate assessment of the geographic footprint of wildlife fatalities can be used to inform compensatory mitigation for their population-level and cumulative effects.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Using explainable machine learning methods to evaluate vulnerability and restoration potential of ecosystem state transitions

Ecosystem state transitions can be ecologically devastating or be a restoration success. State transitions are common within aquatic systems worldwide, especially considering human-mediated changes to land use and water use. We created a transferable conceptual framework to enable multiscale assessments of state resilience and early warnings of state transitions that can inform strategic restorations and avoid ecosystem collapse. The conceptual framework integrated machine learning predictions with ecosystem state concepts (e.g., state classification, gradients of vulnerability, and recovery potential leading to state transitions) and was devised to investigate possible environmental drivers. As an application of the framework, we generated prediction probabilities of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) presence at nearly 10,000 sites in the Upper Mississippi River (United States). Then, we used an interpretability method to explain model predictions to gain insights into possible environmental drivers and thresholds or linear responses of SAV presence and absence. Model accuracy was 89% without spatial bias. Average water depth, suspended solids, substrate, and distance to nearest SAV were the best predictors and likely environmental drivers of SAV habitat suitability. These environmental drivers exhibited nonlinear, threshold-type responses for SAV. All the results are also presented in an online dashboard to explore results at many spatial scales. The habitat suitability model outputs and prediction explanations from many spatial scales (4 m to 400 km of river reach) can inform research and restoration planning.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Evaluating ecosystem protection and fragmentation of the world's major mountain regions

Conserving mountains is important for protecting biodiversity because they have high beta diversity and endemicity, facilitate species movement, and provide numerous ecosystem benefits for people. Mountains are often thought to have lower levels of human modification and contain more protected area than surrounding lowlands. To examine this, we compared biogeographic attributes of the largest, contiguous, mountainous region on each continent. In each region, we generated detailed ecosystems based on Köppen−Geiger climate regions, ecoregions, and detailed landforms. We quantified anthropogenic fragmentation of these ecosystems based on human modification classes of large wild areas, shared lands, and cities and farms. Human modification for half the mountainous regions approached the global average, and fragmentation reduced the ecological integrity of mountain ecosystems up to 40%. Only one-third of the major mountainous regions currently meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target of 30% coverage for all protected areas; furthermore, the vast majority of ecosystem types present in mountains were underrepresented in protected areas. By measuring ecological integrity and human-caused fragmentation with a detailed representation of mountain ecosystems, our approach facilitates tracking progress toward achieving conservation goals and better informs mountain conservation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

The potential influence of genome-wide adaptive divergence on conservation translocation outcome in an isolated greater sage-grouse population

Conservation translocations are an important conservation tool commonly employed to augment declining or reestablish extirpated populations. One goal of augmentation is to increase genetic diversity and reduce the risk of inbreeding depression (i.e., genetic rescue). However, introducing individuals from significantly diverged populations risks disrupting coadapted traits and reducing local fitness (i.e., outbreeding depression). Genetic data are increasingly more accessible for wildlife species and can provide unique insight regarding the presence and retention of introduced genetic variation from augmentation as an indicator of effectiveness and adaptive similarity as an indicator of source and recipient population suitability. We used 2 genetic data sets to evaluate augmentation of isolated populations of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) in the northwestern region of the species range (Washington, USA) and to retrospectively evaluate adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. We developed 2 statistical models for microsatellite data to evaluate augmentation outcomes. We used one model to predict genetic diversity after augmentation and compared these predictions with observations of genetic change. We used the second model to quantify the amount of observed reproduction attributed to transplants (proof of population integration). We also characterized genome-wide adaptive divergence among source and recipient populations. Observed genetic diversity ( H O = 0.65) was higher in the recipient population than predicted had no augmentation occurred ( H O = 0.58) but less than what was predicted by our model ( H O = 0.75). The amount of shared genetic variation between the 2 geographically isolated resident populations increased, which is evidence of periodic gene flow previously assumed to be rare. Among candidate adaptive genes associated with elevated fixation index ( F ST ) (143 genes) or local environmental variables (97 and 157 genes for each genotype–environment association method, respectively), we found clusters of genes with related functions that may influence the ability of transplants to use local resources and navigate unfamiliar environments and their reproductive potential, all possible reasons for low genetic retention from augmentation.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Quantitative support for the benefits of proactive management for wildlife disease control

Finding effective pathogen mitigation strategies is one of the biggest challenges humans face today. In the context of wildlife, emerging infectious diseases have repeatedly caused widespread host morbidity and population declines of numerous taxa. In areas yet unaffected by a pathogen, a proactive management approach has the potential to minimize or prevent host mortality. However, typically critical information on disease dynamics in a novel host system is lacking, empirical evidence on efficacy of management interventions is limited, and there is a lack of validated predictive models. As such, quantitative support for identifying effective management interventions is largely absent, and the opportunity for proactive management is often missed. We considered the potential invasion of the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), whose expected emergence in North America poses a severe threat to hundreds of salamander species in this global salamander biodiversity hotspot. We developed and parameterized a dynamic multistate occupancy model to forecast host and pathogen occurrence, following expected emergence of the pathogen, and evaluated the response of salamander populations to different management scenarios. Our model forecasted that taking no action is expected to be catastrophic to salamander populations. Proactive action was predicted to maximize host occupancy outcomes relative to wait-and-see reactive management, thus providing quantitative support for proactive management opportunities. The eradication of Bsal was unlikely under all the evaluated management options. Contrary to our expectations, even early pathogen detection had little effect on Bsal or host occupancy outcomes. Our results provide quantitative support that proactive management is the optimal strategy for promoting persistence of disease-threatened salamander populations. Our approach fills a critical gap by defining a framework for evaluating management options prior to pathogen invasion and can thus serve as a template for addressing novel disease threats that jeopardize wildlife and human health.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2024

Advancing at-risk species recovery planning in an era of rapid ecological change with a transparent, flexible, and expert-engaged approach

In the face of unprecedented ecological changes, the conservation community needs strategies to recover species at risk of extinction. On the Island of Maui, we collaborated with species experts and managers to assist with climate-resilient recovery planning for 36 at-risk native plant species by identifying priority areas for the management of recovery populations. To do this, we developed a tailored spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) approach distinguished by its emphasis on transparency, flexibility, and expert (TFE) engagement. Our TFE SCP approach consisted of 2 iterative steps: first, the generation of multiple candidate conservation footprints (i.e., prioritization solutions) with a flexible greedy algorithm that reflects conservation practitioners’ priorities and, second, the selection of an optimal conservation footprint based on the consideration of trade-offs in expert-agreed criteria among footprints. This process maximized buy-in by involving conservation practitioners and experts throughout, from setting goals to reviewing optimization data, defining optimization rules, and designating planning units meaningful to practitioners. We minimized the conservation footprint area necessary to meet recovery goals while incorporating species-specific measures of habitat suitability and climate resilience and retaining species-specific information for guiding recovery efforts. Our approach reduced the overall necessary conservation area by 36%, compared with selecting optimal recovery habitats for each species separately, and still identified high-quality habitat for individual species. Compared with prioritizr (an existing SCP tool), our approach identified a conservation area of equal size but with higher quality habitat. By integrating the strengths of existing techniques in a flexible and transparent design, our approach can address natural resource management constraints and provide outputs suitable for local recovery planning, consequently enhancing engagement and buy-in from conservation practitioners and experts. It demonstrates a step forward in making conservation planning more responsive to real-world complexities and helps reduce barriers to implementation for local conservation practitioners.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

Integrating data to assess occupancy patterns of an endangered bumble bee

There is growing interest in integrating community science data with structured monitoring data to estimate changes in distribution patterns of imperiled species, including pollinators. However, significant challenges remain in determining how unstructured community science data should be incorporated into formal analyses of species distributions. We developed a dynamic framework for combining community science and structured monitoring data of bumble bees to estimate changes in occupancy of rusty-patched bumble bees ( Bombus affinis ), a federally endangered species in the United States. We applied traditional metapopulation theory and accounted for imperfect detection to estimate site-specific extirpation risk and colonization rates across the known distribution of B. affinis in the Upper Midwest (USA). Despite a 144% increase in presence-only detections from 2017 to 2022, occupancy probabilities and the estimated number of occupied sites remained static or declined slightly across a 4-state region during this period. Our results provide preliminary evidence that the probability of local extirpation risk of B. affinis increased in response to drought, but that effect was tempered with a high number of neighboring patches occupied by B. affinis (i.e., rescue effect). Our framework can be used by managers to track population recovery goals for B. affinis and other bumble bees of conservation concern. In addition, our study highlights the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and addressing spatial sampling biases in bumble bee monitoring efforts, particularly those for which a portion of the monitoring data are generated from community science projects.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2025

Bright spots for advancing ecological understanding and conservation decision-making

A lot can be learned by studying bright spots—defined as unexpected positive outcomes. In fields like public health, education, and oncology, identifying factors behind bright spots reveals previously unknown drivers of success that can be replicated elsewhere. This concept is being applied in conservation but is hampered by variations in definitions of bright spots and confusion with hotspots—sites with high absolute values of a metric. We developed a framework to clearly define and distinguish between hotspots (e.g., a wetland with high plant diversity) and bright spots (e.g., a biodiverse wetland in a housing development), which outperform conservation expectations. The framework is an iterative cycle, consisting of setting expectations for relative comparisons, classifying systems into bright, dark, hot, and cold categories, and digging deeper to reveal hidden mechanisms and opportunities for intervention. We drew on examples from diverse fields to demonstrate how our framework can generate new knowledge, identify potential interventions, and inform management priorities. Defining conservation and management expectations, often through predictive models, is essential to understanding drivers of success and fosters hypotheses about overlooked factors. Our framework can enhance ecological understanding, guide interventions, and help prioritize actions in conservation and natural resource management.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2025

Success of restoration strategies in preventing extirpation of 2 critically endangered coral species

An unprecedented marine heatwave in 2023 caused widespread coral bleaching and mortality throughout the Caribbean. In the Florida Keys (USA), 2 foundation species, elkhorn coral ( Acropora palmata ) and staghorn coral ( Acropora cervicornis ), were severely affected. These species have been the primary focus of reef restoration in Florida for decades. Substantial losses of these species occurred in outplanted populations, in ocean-based nurseries, and among remnant wild colonies, leading to uncertainty over their future in the Florida Keys, given recent observed trends in climate conditions. However, the past 2 decades of restoration activity created a community of experts, a network of ocean-based and land-based coral-rearing infrastructure, and 2 independent land-based coral gene banks that prevented regional extirpation and preserved much of the genetic richness of these critically endangered coral species. Without the past decades of effort and the emergency response associated with the 2023 bleaching event, Florida acroporids would largely have been lost. This outcome afforded by the restoration network in Florida demonstrates the value of proactively establishing resources prior to major disturbances. We identified several critical strategies that, in the context of existing climate change, are preventing the extirpation of coral species in Florida, including extending collaborative restoration efforts to solidify a network of trained experts; establishing trust-focused relationships among management agencies and restoration groups; testing direct interventions to reduce light and temperature stress early during thermal anomalies; developing redundant ocean-based and land-based nurseries; and establishing living coral gene banks prior to major threats to prevent the extirpation of coral species.

Florida↗
USGS2026

The collective application of shorebird tracking data to conservation

Addressing urgent conservation issues, such as the drastic declines of North American migratory birds, requires creative, evidence-based, efficient, and collaborative approaches. The abundance of over 50% of monitored North American shorebird populations has declined by over 50% since 1980. To address these declines, we developed a partnership of scientists and practitioners called the Shorebird Science and Conservation Collective (hereafter the collective ). The collective was founded to translate the combined findings of shorebird tracking data into on-the-ground conservation action. With advice from an advisory group, the collective acts as an intermediary whereby dedicated staff collate and analyze data contributions from scientists to support knowledge requests from conservation practitioners. In its first three years, data contributions from 75 organizations include over 7.1 million shorebird observations forming movement paths of 3420 individuals representing 36 species tracked across the Americas and have informed 18 conservation projects spanning education, land and species management, land conservation, and policy requests. Others engaged in translational science from big data could consider similar knowledge-sharing models that prioritize usable data products, foster collaborative engagement between science experts and practitioners, build focused communities around topics or taxonomic groups, and employ a proof-of-concept phase to develop scalable solutions while making progress toward long-term funding to sustain impact. As the volume of scientific data continues to grow, intermediaries, such as the collective, can be vital liaisons to rapidly integrate and interpret research to support conservation action. Dedicated to the memory of Shiloh Schulte and his conservation achievements for shorebirds.

Conservation Biology↗