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At least 577 records · Page 32Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Does habitat or climate change drive species range shifts?

A primary prediction of climate change ecology is that species will track their climate niche poleward and upslope. However, studies have shown species responding in surprising ways. In this study, we aim to understand the impact of global change on species ranges by considering both climate and habitat changes. Using occupancy analysis of acoustic survey data in the mountains of the northeastern United States, we tested specific predictions of range responses to warming (shifting upslope), precipitation change (shifting downslope), and forest composition change (shifting downslope). We found that American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , key nodes in northern North American food webs, are not tracking increasing temperatures upslope, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Structural equation modeling indicates that red squirrel abundance is primarily influenced by red-spruce forest cover, which has shifted downslope with recovery from historical logging and acid deposition. Accounting for the multiple dimensions of global change will enable better predictions and more effective conservation strategies.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2008

Arctic climate change and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Ecology↗
USGS2016

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Idaho↗
USGS2025

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2024

Best practices for incorporating climate change science into Department of the Interior analyses, consultations, and decision making

The purpose of this document is to provide technical guidance, practical application examples, and resource lists for those who conduct, manage, and/or interpret technical workflows within the Department of the Interior. This document is intended to support implementation of Department of the Interior policy 526 DM 1 and establish best practices for using climate change science to inform analysis, consultation, and decision making. The Earth’s climate is an interconnected system that distributes energy, heat, and water around the planet. Due to human-driven increases in long-lived greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is now changing. For Departmental decision-making purposes, assuming a static, unchanging baseline climate is no longer consistent with current knowledge about the climate system. There are uncertainties about future climate and how resources or assets (RoAs) will respond to new conditions. To depict the possibilities, the global climate science community develops scenarios and models to explore how future climate may respond to socioeconomic and technological development in the world. Principles for informing policy development, planning and decisions, and regulatory processes using climate change science must: 1) consider the effects of future climate change, 2) characterize the risks, and 3) characterize the uncertainties. Best practices include: Use multiple scenarios to assess risks from a range of plausible societal pathways. When constraints prevent the use of multiple scenarios or if decision makers are risk averse, ensure that the chosen scenario considers higher risk outcomes. This is particularly important for large investments or irreversible decisions and reduces the chances of overconfident decision making. Use multiple climate models within each scenario to account for the range of outcomes due to model uncertainty. Do not rely solely on a single model or an ensemble average. Use relevant climate data . Use a time-period for model projections of the future climate change consistent with the relevant timeframe of the policy, action, or decision being considered. Historical observations are useful for understanding past conditions and climate trends for the next several years, but not beyond the next decade. Consult with climate data and modeling experts to assess which data and model resources are most appropriate for any given application. Clearly describe key analysis uncertainties (including with any climate observations, models, and scenarios used), and how they were addressed in the analysis and/or decision process. This ensures transparency and learning among analysts and decision makers.

Report↗
USGS2009

Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach

Fire is a common disturbance in the North American boreal forest that influences ecosystem structure and function. The temporal and spatial dynamics of fire are likely to be altered as climate continues to change. In this study, we ask the question: how will area burned in boreal North America by wildfire respond to future changes in climate? To evaluate this question, we developed temporally and spatially explicit relationships between air temperature and fuel moisture codes derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to estimate annual area burned at 2.5?? (latitude ?? longitude) resolution using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach across Alaska and Canada. Burned area was substantially more predictable in the western portion of boreal North America than in eastern Canada. Burned area was also not very predictable in areas of substantial topographic relief and in areas along the transition between boreal forest and tundra. At the scale of Alaska and western Canada, the empirical fire models explain on the order of 82% of the variation in annual area burned for the period 1960-2002. July temperature was the most frequently occurring predictor across all models, but the fuel moisture codes for the months June through August (as a group) entered the models as the most important predictors of annual area burned. To predict changes in the temporal and spatial dynamics of fire under future climate, the empirical fire models used output from the Canadian Climate Center CGCM2 global climate model to predict annual area burned through the year 2100 across Alaska and western Canada. Relative to 1991-2000, the results suggest that average area burned per decade will double by 2041-2050 and will increase on the order of 3.5-5.5 times by the last decade of the 21st century. To improve the ability to better predict wildfire across Alaska and Canada, future research should focus on incorporating additional effects of long-term and successional vegetation changes on area burned to account more fully for interactions among fire, climate, and vegetation dynamics. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other factors. Therefore, planning for infrastructure and public safety needs to be flexible in order to address the range of possible outcomes indicated by the various model simulations. The absolute magnitude and timing of the daily streamflows, especially the larger floods, are not considered to be reliably simulated compared to changes in frequency and duration of daily streamflows and changes in accumulated monthly and seasonal streamflow volumes. Simulated current and future streamflow, groundwater recharge, and snowfall datasets include simulated data derived from the five general circulation models used in this study for a current reference time period and two future time periods. Average monthly streamflow time series datasets are provided for 27 streamgages in New Hampshire. Fourteen of the 27 streamgages associated with daily streamflow time series showed a good calibration. Average monthly groundwater recharge and snowfall time series for the same reference time period and two future time periods are also provided for each of the 467 hydrologic response units that compose the model.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2020

Climate-change refugia in boreal North America: What, where, and for how long?

T The vast boreal biome plays an important role in the global carbon cycle but is experiencing particularly rapid climate warming, threatening the integrity of valued ecosystems and their component species. We developed a framework and taxonomy to identify climate‐change refugia potential in the North American boreal region, summarizing current knowledge regarding mechanisms, geographic distribution, and landscape indicators. While “terrain‐mediated” refugia will mostly be limited to coastal and mountain regions, the ecological inertia (resistance to external fluctuations) contained in some boreal ecosystems may provide more extensive buffering against climate change, resulting in “ecosystem‐protected” refugia. A notable example is boreal peatlands, which can retain high surface soil moisture and water tables even in the face of drought. Refugia from wildfire are also especially important in the boreal region, which is characterized by active disturbance regimes. Our framework will help identify areas of high refugia potential, and inform ecosystem management and conservation planning in light of climate change.

North America↗
USGS2015

Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m 2 /decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m 2 /decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21 st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21 st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m 2 /decade and 8.66 kg/m 2 /decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2014

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Park Science↗
USGS2011

Statistical Comparisons of watershed scale response to climate change in selected basins across the United States

In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov?Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.

Earth Interactions↗
USGS2015

Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14 C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

Nevada↗
USGS2020

Possible effects of climate change on ixodid ticks and the pathogens they transmit: Predictions and observations

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated ‘One Health’ observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2013

Links between climate change, water-table depth, and water chemistry in a mineralized mountain watershed

Recent studies suggest that climate change is causing rising solute concentrations in mountain lakes and streams. These changes may be more pronounced in mineralized watersheds due to the sensitivity of sulfide weathering to changes in subsurface oxygen transport. Specific causal mechanisms linking climate change and accelerated weathering rates have been proposed, but in general remain entirely hypothetical. For mineralized watersheds, a favored hypothesis is that falling water tables caused by declining recharge rates allow an increasing volume of sulfide-bearing rock to become exposed to air, thus oxygen. Here, we test the hypothesis that falling water tables are the primary cause of an increase in metals and SO4 (100-400%) observed since 1980 in the Upper Snake River (USR), Colorado. The USR drains an alpine watershed geologically and climatologically representative of many others in mineralized areas of the western U.S. Hydrologic and chemical data collected from 2005 to 2011 in a deep monitoring well (WP1) at the top of the USR watershed are utilized. During this period, both water table depths and groundwater SO4 concentrations have generally increased in the well. A numerical model was constructed using TOUGHREACT that simulates pyrite oxidation near WP1, including groundwater flow and oxygen transport in both saturated and unsaturated zones. The modeling suggests that a falling water table could produce an increase in metals and SO4 of a magnitude similar to that observed in the USR (up to 300%). Future water table declines may produce limited increases in sulfide weathering high in the watershed because of the water table dropping below the depth of oxygen penetration, but may continue to enhance sulfide weathering lower in the watershed where water tables are shallower. Advective air (oxygen) transport in the unsaturated zone caused by seasonally variable recharge and associated water table fluctuations was found to have little influence on pyrite oxidation rates near WP1. However, this mechanism could be important in the case of a shallow dynamic water table and more abundant/reactive sulfides in the shallow subsurface. Data from WP1 and numerical modeling results are thus consistent with the falling water table hypothesis, and illustrate fundamental processes linking climate and sulfide weathering in mineralized watersheds.

Applied Geochemistry↗
USGS2025

Climate change and future water availability in the United States

The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire weather, flooding, and heavy precipitation, as well as cryosphere decline and sea-level rise. In this chapter of the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, we provide an overview of climate-change observations and projections from Earth-system model simulations that relate to future water availability, from global and national climate assessments and from the published literature. Effects of climate change on primary water-cycle components are discussed in context of how global-scale hydroclimate drivers influence regional processes within the United States. Understanding the major climate drivers impacting the water cycle is crucial to predicting future changes in water availability and developing adaptation strategies to ensure human and ecosystem water supplies. First, we provide background information on the water cycle, the climate-model ensemble simulations developed to produce projections based on warming scenarios, and attribution and certainty levels. Tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks, cascading effects, and compound extremes are introduced. The framework of climatic impact drivers (CIDs) outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is used to show primary drivers of physical change to the water cycle and to understand and predict changes in future water availability. Specific climate-change related observations and projections are discussed for water cycle components of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, streamflow, lakes and wetlands, ice and snow, and groundwater, as well as their implications for future water availability for humans and ecosystems. The chapter concludes with a synthesis discussion of three examples of complex regional-scale hydroclimate processes that influence water availability for populations in the United States, including (1) mountain and coastal precipitation, (2) aridification and drought, and (3) the influence of forest-cover change on terrestrial water-vapor recycling.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2022

Overcoming “analysis paralysis” through better climate change scenario planning

This "In Brief" article describes the use of scenario planning to facilitate climate change adaptation in the National Park Service. It summarizes best practices and innovations for using climate change scenario planning, with an emphasis on management outcomes and manager perspectives. The scenario planning approach and management outcomes highlighted in this article are the culmination of more than a decade of collaboration between the USGS and the National Park Service.

Park Science↗
USGS2024

Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: Data sources, models, and future prospects

Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Review of Geophysics↗
USGS2012

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Nature↗