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USGS2016

Oil and gas development influences big-game hunting in Wyoming

Development from extracting oil and gas resources can have unintended effects on multiple ecosystem functions, with cascading effects on wildlife, ecosystem services, and local economies. Big-game hunting opportunities may be closely related to these effects, but empirical analyses of impacts of energy development on hunting are limited. We examined the influence of oil and gas development density on harvest efficiency, or harvest per unit of hunter effort, within all hunt areas in Wyoming, USA, from 2008 to 2014 for 3 big-game species: elk ( Cervus canadensis ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), and pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ). Using harvest/hunter day as the response variable, we compared linear mixed-effects models for each species that included total well density (i.e., all wells constructed up to the year of record), active well density (i.e., only those wells currently producing oil or gas in that year), or neither as a predictor variable. We used well densities as indicators of development in the absence of data specifying the locations of other oil and gas infrastructure (e.g., roads, well pads). Models also accounted for the fixed effects of road density, hunter density, proportion of the area that is public land with unrestricted hunter access, proportion of the area that is forested, year of observation, and random effects of variation among hunt areas nested within associated game herd units. Presence of oil and gas wells had a positive influence on harvest efficiency for elk and mule deer. Although there was no overall effect to pronghorn, there was a negative influence of wells on juvenile pronghorn harvest efficiency. Changes in harvest efficiency due to expanding oil and gas development could alter the time spent hunting by hunters and their chances of harvesting an animal. This could have subsequent impacts on hunter satisfaction, game populations, and economic revenue generated from recreational hunters.

Wyoming↗
USGS2017

Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

New York↗
USGS2017

Growth of black brant and lesser snow goose goslings in northern Alaska

Gosling body mass can affect first year survival, recruitment, adult body size, and future fecundity of geese, and can serve as an indicator of forage availability and quality on brood-rearing areas. From 2012–2014 we measured body mass of 76 black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) and 268 lesser snow goose ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens ) goslings of known age on the Colville River Delta (CRD) of northern Alaska to determine if there was evidence of density-dependent declines in gosling growth following recent population increases of those species and sympatric greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons frontalis ). We contrasted contemporary body mass of brant goslings and forage biomass in brood-rearing habitats that were shared by all species, with measures obtained on, and near the CRD in the 1990s, prior to the establishment of snow goose nesting colonies in the area. Body mass of brant goslings recaptured between 25 and 32 days of age had not changed over the past 2 decades, despite an influx of snow geese, and increases in populations of brant and white-fronted geese. At 30 days of age, body mass of brant goslings on the CRD was 100–400 g heavier than for brant goslings of the same age on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska. Contemporary biomass of grazed Carex subspathacea on CRD brood-rearing areas was comparable to the 1990s and was 2–4 times greater than for the same plant community on the YKD. Historical data on growth of snow goose goslings were not available for the CRD. However, average body mass of 34-day-old snow goose goslings was > 230 g heavier than for conspecifics of the same age in the Hudson Bay region. We conclude that the establishment of nesting snow geese on the CRD has not negatively affected brant gosling growth, and that recent population increases of all species have likely not been constrained by forage availability on brood-rearing areas. Barring demographic changes elsewhere in their annual cycles, we predict that goose populations will continue to increase in northern Alaska. However, snow geese are increasing more rapidly than brant in the region. Because the black brant population has periodically been below conservation objectives, the effects of the increasing number of snow geese on forage biomass and growth of brant goslings in northern Alaska should be monitored.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Evaluating population expansion of black bears using spatial capture-recapture

The population of American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in southern New York, USA has been growing and expanding in range since the 1990s. This has motivated a need to anticipate future patterns of range expansion. We conducted a non-invasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture (SCR) study to estimate black bear density and identify spatial patterns of population density that are potentially associated with range expansion. We collected hair samples in a 2,519-km 2 study area in southern New York with barbed-wire hair snares and identified individuals and measured genetic diversity using 7 microsatellite loci and 1 sex-linked marker. We estimated a mean density of black bears in the region of 13.7 bears/100 km 2 , and detected a slight latitudinal gradient in density consistent with the documented range expansion. However, elevation and the amounts of forest, crop, and developed landcover types did not influence density, suggesting that bears are using a diversity of resources in this heterogeneous landscape outside their previously described distribution. These results provide the first robust baseline estimates for population density and distribution associated with different landcover types in the expanded bear range. Further, genetic diversity was comparable to that of non-expanding black bear populations in the eastern United States, and in combination with the latitudinal density gradient, suggest that the study area is not at the colonizing front of the range expansion. In addition, the diversity of landcover types used by bears in the study area implies a possible lack of constraints for further northern expansion of the black bear range. Our non-invasive, genetic, spatial capture-recapture approach has utility for studying populations of other species that may be expanding in range because SCR allows for the testing of explicit, spatial ecological hypotheses.

New York↗
USGS2017

Mammalian mesocarnivore visitation at tortoise burrows in a wind farm

There is little information on predator–prey interactions in wind energy landscapes in North America, especially among terrestrial vertebrates. Here, we evaluated how proximity to roads and wind turbines affect mesocarnivore visitation with desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) and their burrows in a wind energy landscape. In 2013, we placed motion-sensor cameras facing the entrances of 46 active desert tortoise burrows in a 5.2-km 2 wind energy facility near Palm Springs, California, USA. Cameras recorded images of 35 species of reptiles, mammals, and birds. Counts for 4 species of mesocarnivores at desert tortoise burrows increased closer to dirt roads, and decreased closer to wind turbines. Our results suggest that anthropogenic infrastructure associated with wind energy facilities could influence the general behavior of mammalian predators and their prey. Further investigation of proximate mechanisms that underlie road and wind turbine effects (i.e., ground vibrations, sound emission, and traffic volume) and on wind energy facility spatial designs (i.e., road and wind turbine configuration) could prove useful for better understanding wildlife responses to wind energy development. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

California↗
USGS2017

Landscape capability predicts upland game bird abundance and occurrence

Landscape capability (LC) models are a spatial tool with potential applications in conservation planning. We used survey data to validate LC models as predictors of occurrence and abundance at broad and fine scales for American woodcock ( Scolopax minor ) and ruffed grouse ( Bonasa umbellus ). Landscape capability models were reliable predictors of occurrence but were less indicative of relative abundance at route (11.5–14.6 km) and point scales (0.5–1 km). As predictors of occurrence, LC models had high sensitivity (0.71–0.93) and were accurate (0.71–0.88) and precise (0.88 and 0.92 for woodcock and grouse, respectively). Models did not predict point-scale abundance independent of the ability to predict occurrence of either species. The LC models are useful predictors of patterns of occurrences in the northeastern United States, but they have limited utility as predictors of fine-scale or route-specific abundances.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

Autonomous acoustic recorders reveal complex patterns in avian detection probability

Avian point‐count surveys are typically designed to occur during periods when birds are consistently active and singing, but seasonal and diurnal patterns of detection probability are often not well understood and may vary regionally or between years. We deployed autonomous acoustic recorders to assess how avian availability for detection (i.e., the probability that a bird signals its presence during a recording) varied during the breeding season with time of day, date, and weather‐related variables at multiple subarctic tundra sites in Alaska, USA, 2013–2014. A single observer processed 2,692 10‐minute recordings across 11 site‐years. We used time‐removal methods to assess availability and used generalized additive models to examine patterns of detectability (joint probability of presence, availability, and detection) for 16 common species. Despite lack of distinct dawn or dusk, most species displayed circadian vocalization patterns, with detection rates generally peaking between 0800 hours and 1200 hours but remaining high as late as 2000 hours for some species. Between 2200 hours and 0500 hours, most species’ detection rates dropped to near 0, signaling a distinctive rest period. Detectability dropped sharply for most species in early July. For all species considered, time‐removal analysis indicated nearly 100% likelihood of detection during a 10‐minute recording conducted in June, between 0500 hours and 2000 hours. This indicates that non‐detections during appropriate survey times and dates were attributable to the species’ absence or that silent birds were unlikely to initiate singing during a 10‐minute interval, whereas vocally active birds were singing very frequently. Systematic recordings revealed a gradient of species’ presence at each site, from ubiquitous to incidental. Although the total number of species detected at a site ranged from 16 to 27, we detected only 4 to 15 species on ≥5% of the site's recordings. Recordings provided an unusually detailed and consistent dataset that allowed us to identify, among other things, appropriate survey dates and times for species breeding at northern latitudes. Our results also indicated that more recordings of shorter duration (1–4 min) may be most efficient for detecting passerines.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear ( Ursus americanus ) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km 2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km 2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km 2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

Florida↗
USGS2017

Design tradeoffs in long-term research for stream salamanders

Long-term research programs can benefit from early and periodic evaluation of their ability to meet stated objectives. In particular, consideration of the spatial allocation of effort is key. We sampled 4 species of stream salamanders intensively for 2 years (2010–2011) in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Maryland, USA to evaluate alternative distributions of sampling locations within stream networks, and then evaluated via simulation the ability of multiple survey designs to detect declines in occupancy and to estimate dynamic parameters (colonization, extinction) over 5 years for 2 species. We expected that fine-scale microhabitat variables (e.g., cobble, detritus) would be the strongest determinants of occupancy for each of the 4 species; however, we found greater support for all species for models including variables describing position within the stream network, stream size, or stream microhabitat. A monitoring design focused on headwater sections had greater power to detect changes in occupancy and the dynamic parameters in each of 3 scenarios for the dusky salamander ( Desmognathus fuscus ) and red salamander ( Pseudotriton ruber ). Results for transect length were more variable, but across all species and scenarios, 25-m transects are most suitable as a balance between maximizing detection probability and describing colonization and extinction. These results inform sampling design and provide a general framework for setting appropriate goals, effort, and duration in the initial planning stages of research programs on stream salamanders in the eastern United States.

Maryland↗
USGS2017

Effects of industrial and investigator disturbance on Arctic-nesting geese

Oil and gas development on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA may have effects on Arctic-nesting birds. To estimate effects of industrial activity and investigator disturbance on avian productivity, we monitored nests of greater white-fronted geese ( Anser albifrons ) with digital cameras and periodic nest visits during 2013–2014 at 2 sites on the ACP. A disturbed site was adjacent to human-made infrastructure and industrial clean-up activities initiated at the onset of the study and a control site was >2 km from sources of industrial disturbance. We assessed variation in estimates of incubation constancy, nest survival, and predator behavior relative to site, year, and distance from industrial activity using nest photographs obtained at 1-minute intervals. We compared analysis of hourly nest survival informed by intensive monitoring with cameras to analysis of daily nest survival informed by traditional nest visit data obtained at intervals of 5–7 days to assess how method and time scale of sampling affect ecological inference. Geese in both sites exhibited high levels of nest attendance and initiated incubation breaks less than once per day. Observer-caused incubation breaks associated with nest visits ( = 37.8 min) were longer than other types of incubation breaks ( = 8.7 min), demonstrating a differential response by nesting geese to direct human encroachment versus indirect vehicular and aircraft traffic. During both years, geese were absent from nests more frequently in the disturbed ( = 0.9 breaks/day) than control ( = 0.6 breaks/day) site, and this break frequency was slightly higher for nests closer to industrial activity. In the year with high rates of depredation, nest survival was positively related to distance from industrial activity and abandoned infrastructure, consistent with predictions of industry-caused effects. This relationship, however, was not evident in the year with reduced predation pressure, likely because of annual variation in arctic fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) behavior. Analysis of nest survival probability informed by camera data allowed for detection of detailed patterns of variation that were not supported when using only visit data for the same nests. Observer visits were responsible for reductions of 7–35% in nest survival probability, highlighting the importance of minimizing, and controlling for, observer effects in studies of avian productivity. Indirect vehicular and aircraft disturbance posed less risk to nest survival than direct encroachment by observers at nest sites. Therefore, effects of industrial activities on avian productivity in the Arctic can be minimized through practices that limit direct encounters with nests.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Ecotypic variation in population dynamics of reintroduced bighorn sheep

Selection of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) for translocation historically has been motivated by preservation of subspecific purity rather than by adaptation of source stocks to similar environments. Our objective was to estimate cause‐specific, annual, and age‐specific mortality of introduced bighorn sheep that originated at low elevations in southern British Columbia, Canada (BC ecotype), or in the Missouri River Breaks region of central Montana, USA (MT ecotype). In North Dakota, USA, mortality was similar and typically low for adult female bighorn sheep from Montana (0.09 ± 0.029 [SE]) and British Columbia (0.08 ± 0.017) during 2000–2016. Median life expectancy was 11 years for females that reached adulthood (2 yrs old); however, mortality accelerated with age and reached 86% by age 16. Mortalities resulted primarily from low rates of predation, disease, accidents, and unknown natural causes (<0.04 [upper 90% CI]). Similar survival rates of female bighorn sheep from female bighorn sheep from British Columbia and Montana, coupled with greater recruitment of bighorn sheep from Montana, resulted in a greater projected rate of increase for the MT ecotype ( λ = 1.21) than for the BC ecotype (1.02), and a more youthful age structure. These results support translocation of bighorn sheep from areas that are environmentally similar to areas that will be stocked. Potential benefits include more rapid population growth, greater resilience to and more rapid recovery from density‐independent losses, an increased possibility that rapidly growing populations will expand into adjacent habitat, increased hunter opportunity, increased connectivity among herds, and a more complete restoration of ecosystem processes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2017

Post-breeding migration and connectivity of red knots in the Western Atlantic

Red knots ( Calidris canutus rufa ) have 3 distinct nonbreeding regions: 1 in the southeastern United States and Caribbean, another on the northeast coast of Brazil in the Maranhão region, and a third along the Patagonian coasts of Chile and Argentina. Effective conservation and recovery of this threatened long-distance migrant will require knowledge of population structure, migration ecology, and abundance and distribution throughout the annual cycle. We conducted a stopover population and biogeographic assessment of knots at the Altamaha River Delta, Georgia, an important stopover area in the southeastern United States. We estimated stopover population size and stopover duration during post-breeding migration in 2011 at the Altamaha study area using mark-resight data, and we inferred nonbreeding regions for this stopover population using stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen in feathers, and observations (sightings and captures) during boreal winter from across the hemisphere. With an integrated Bayesian analysis of all these data, we also estimated the number of birds in the southeastern United States and northern Brazil during boreal winter. For mark-resight analyses in Georgia, we made observations of marked individuals during 14 weeks from early August to early November 2011 and detected 814 individually marked birds. We used the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model and estimated the southbound passage population at approximately 23,400 red knots. In ongoing studies elsewhere, isotope samples were collected from 175 (21%) of the 814 birds detected in our study, and ≥1 sighting or capture record during boreal winter was located in data repositories for 659 birds (81%). Isotopic signatures and boreal winter records indicate that the majority (82–96%) of the birds that stopped at the Altamaha Delta spend the boreal winter in the northern part of the nonbreeding range (southeast USA, Caribbean, and northern Brazil). Knots migrating to the southeastern United States, Caribbean, or Brazil remained on the Altamaha Delta for 42 days, whereas birds migrating to Tierra del Fuego remained only 21 days. Combining our estimate of the Altamaha stopover population size (23,400 birds) and the estimated proportion in the northern nonbreeding region (82–96%), we derived a minimum estimate of the number of knots in the southeastern United States, Caribbean, and northern South America during the boreal winter: approximately 20,800 knots, of which approximately 10,400 knots occupy the southeastern United States and 5,400 occupy Brazil. Our results provide additional evidence that coastal Georgia is an important migration area for red knots, and provide information about population structure and migratory connectivity that will be valuable for conservation planning.

Georgia↗
USGS2018

Density of American black bears in New Mexico

Considering advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish sought to update their density estimates for American black bear ( Ursus americanus ) populations in New Mexico, USA, to aide in setting sustainable harvest limits. We estimated black bear density in the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, 2012–2014. We collected hair samples from black bears using hair traps and bear rubs and used a sex marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to individually genotype hair samples. We then estimated density in a SECR framework using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We sampled the populations using 554 hair traps and 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 male, 358 female) individuals. Our density estimates varied from 16.5 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI = 11.6–23.5) in the southern Sacramento Mountains to 25.7 bears/100 km 2 (95% CI = 13.2–50.1) in the Sandia Mountains. Overall, detection probability at the activity center (g0) was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. The low values of g0 were primarily a result of half of all hair samples for which genotypes were attempted failing to produce a complete genotype. We speculate that the low success we had genotyping hair samples was due to exceedingly high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that degraded the DNA in the hair. Despite sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates with levels of precision comparable to those estimated for black bears elsewhere in the United States.

New Mexico↗
USGS2018

Response of moose to a high‐density road network

Road networks and the disturbance associated with vehicle traffic alter animal behavior, movements, and habitat selection. The response of moose ( Alces americanus ) to roads has been documented in relatively rural areas, but less is known about moose response to roads in more highly roaded landscapes. We examined road‐crossing frequencies and habitat use of global positioning system (GPS)‐collared moose in Massachusetts, USA, where moose home ranges have road densities approximately twice that of previous studies. We compared seasonal road‐crossing frequencies of moose with a null movement model. We estimated moose travel speeds during road‐crossing events and compared them with speeds during other home range movements. To estimate the extent of the road effect zone and determine how roads influenced moose habitat use, we fit a third‐order resource selection function. With the exception of the lowest use road class (<10 vehicles/day), we found moose crossed roads less than expected based on the null movement model and frequency decreased with increasing road size and traffic. Moose crossed roads faster than they traveled during other times. This effect increased with increasing road use intensity. Overall, roads were a major factor determining what portions of Massachusetts moose used and how they moved among habitat patches. Our results suggest that moose in Massachusetts can adapt to a high‐density road network, but the road effect is still strongly negative and, in some cases, is more pronounced than in study areas with lower road densities. Future road construction and the expansion of road networks may have a large effect on moose and other wildlife.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2018

Identifying holes in the greater sage-grouse conservation umbrella

The umbrella species concept, wherein multiple species are indirectly protected under the umbrella of a reserve created for one, is intended to enhance conservation efficiency. Although appealing in theory and common in practice, empirical tests of the concept have been scarce. We used a real-world, semi-protected reserve established to protect a high-profile umbrella species (greater sage-grouse [ Centrocercus urophasianus ]) to investigate 2 potential mechanisms underlying the concept's successful application: reserve size and species similarity. We estimated how much habitat protection the established reserve provided to 52 species of conservation concern associated with vegetation communities where greater sage-grouse occur. To illustrate the importance of reserve size, we compared the effectiveness of the established reserve to alternative greater sage-grouse reserves of various sizes and to simulated reserves of equal size but sited with no regard for greater sage-grouse. We further assessed whether key species’ traits were associated with different levels of protection under the umbrella reserve. The established umbrella reserve protected 82% of the state's greater sage-grouse population and 0–63% of the habitat of the background species examined. The reserve outperformed equally sized, simulated reserves for only 12 of 52 background species. As expected, larger alternative reserves served as better umbrellas, but regardless of reserve size, not all species received equal protection. The established reserve was most effective at protecting the habitat of species that were most similar to the umbrella species (i.e., avian species, those highly associated with sagebrush plant communities, and those with widespread habitat). In contrast, the habitat of species with restricted distributions, particularly when combined with vegetation associations not closely matching the umbrella species, was not protected as well by the umbrella reserve. Such species require additional, targeted attention to achieve conservation objectives. Successful application of the umbrella species concept requires careful consideration of the characteristics of the umbrella species, the reserve delineated on its behalf, and the similarity of the umbrella species to its purported background species.

Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Respiratory disease, behavior, and survival of mountain goat kids

Bacterial pneumonia is a threat to bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) populations. Bighorn sheep in the East Humboldt Mountain Range (EHR), Nevada, USA, experienced a pneumonia epizootic in 2009–2010. Testing of mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) that were captured or found dead on this range during and after the epizootic detected bacteria commonly associated with bighorn sheep pneumonia die‐offs. Additionally, in years subsequent to the bighorn sheep epizootic, the mountain goat population had low kid:adult ratios, a common outcome for bighorn sheep populations that have experienced a pneumonia epizootic. We hypothesized that pneumonia was present and negatively affecting mountain goat kids in the EHR. From June–August 2013–2015, we attempted to observe mountain goat kids with marked adult females in the EHR at least once per week to document signs of respiratory disease; identify associations between respiratory disease, activity levels, and subsequent disappearance (i.e., death); and estimate weekly survival. Each time we observed a kid with a marked adult female, we recorded any signs of respiratory disease and collected behavior data that we fit to a 3‐state discrete hidden Markov model (HMM) to predict a kid's state (active vs. sedentary) and its probability of disappearing. We first observed clinical signs of respiratory disease in kids in late July–early August each summer. We observed 8 of 31 kids with marked adult females with signs of respiratory disease on 13 occasions. On 11 of these occasions, the HMM predicted that kids were in the sedentary state, which was associated with increased probability of subsequent death. We estimated overall probability of kid survival from June–August to be 0.19 (95% CI = 0.08–0.38), which was lower than has been reported in other mountain goat populations. We concluded that respiratory disease was present in the mountain goat kids in the EHR and negatively affected their activity levels and survival. Our results raise concerns about potential effects of pneumonia to mountain goat populations and the potential for disease transmission between mountain goats and bighorn sheep where the species are sympatric.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗