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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse‐time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6 years of capture–recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0·41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0·51–0·54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0·75–0·78) but lower recruitment rates (0·25). Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2016

Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. Synthesis and applications . Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programmes continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved the model performance.

Michigan↗
USGS2010

Proximate cues for a short-distance migratory species: An application of survival analysis

Investigation of bird migration has often highlighted the importance of external factors in determining timing of migration However, little distinction has been made between short- and long-distance migrants and between local and flight birds (passage migrants) in describing migration chronology. In addition, measures of food abundance as a proximate factor influencing timing of migration are lacking in studies of migration chronology. To address the relationship between environmental variables and timing of migration we quantified the relative importance of proximate external factors on migration chronology of local American woodcock (Scolopax minor), a short distance migrant, using event-time analysis methods (survival analysis). We captured 1,094 woodcock local to our study sites in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin (USA) during autumn 2002-2004 and documented 786 departure dates for these birds. Photoperiod appeared to provide an initial proximate cue for timing of departure. Moon phase was important in modifying timing of departure, which may serve as a navigational aid in piloting and possibly orientation. Local synoptic weather variables also contributed to timing of departure by changing the rate of departure from our study sites. We found no evidence that food availability influenced timing of woodcock departure. Our results suggest that woodcock use a conservative photoperiod-controlled strategy with proximate modifiers for timing of migration rather than relying on abundance of their primary food, earthworms. Managing harvest pressure on local birds by adjusting season lengths may be an effective management tool with consistent migration patterns from year to year based on photoperiod.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2021

Habitat features predict carrying capacity of a recovering marine carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over‐exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity ( K ) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state‐space model of density‐dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters ( E. l. nereis ), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta‐logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density‐independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density‐dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark‐bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation‐based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K .

California↗
USGS2022

Redear Sunfish occurrence, abundance, growth, and size structure as related to abiotic and biotic factors in Florida lakes

Panfish support popular, socioeconomically valuable fisheries across the United States. Whereas Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus receive considerable research attention, Redear Sunfish L . microlophus are seldom studied despite their wide distribution, large size, socioeconomic contributions, and invasion potential in parts of their introduced range. We evaluated Redear Sunfish occurrence, density, relative abundance, growth, and size structure in 60 Florida lakes with varied surface area (2–12,412 ha), trophic state (oligotrophic to hypereutrophic), and macrophyte abundance (0.3–100% of lake volume inhabited), a range of environmental conditions over which Redear Sunfish populations have scarcely been investigated. Lake surface area, chlorophyll- a concentration, and macrophyte abundance explained 98% of variation in Redear Sunfish occurrence. Redear Sunfish density increased asymptotically with calcium concentration, whereas relative abundance (electrofishing fish/h) peaked at intermediate surface area (50–100 ha) and chlorophyll a (20 μg/L). Mean length at age 3 declined with increasing macrophyte abundance and was parabolically related to Redear Sunfish density, peaking at approximately 450 fish/ha. The proportional size distribution (PSD) and PSD of preferred-length fish were also negatively related to macrophyte abundance, and PSD declined with increasing Redear Sunfish density. Our results suggest that Redear Sunfish fisheries with abundant individuals of quality size (≥180 mm) require large (>100 ha), fertile (>20 μg/L chlorophyll a ) lakes with calcium concentrations >5 mg/L, moderate macrophyte abundance (0–25% of lake volume inhabited), and Redear Sunfish densities between 200 and 700 fish/ha. Our modeling approach can help managers predict Redear Sunfish occurrence, density, relative abundance, growth, and size structure based on a suite of abiotic and biotic variables.

Florida↗
USGS2003

Factors associated with stocked cutthroat trout populations in high-mountain lakes

High-mountain lakes provide important fisheries in the Rocky Mountains; therefore we sought to gain an understanding of the relationships among environmental factors, accessibility to anglers, stocking rates, and features of stocks of cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki in high-mountain lakes of the Bighorn Mountains, Wyoming. We sampled fish with experimental gill nets, measured lake habitat features, and calculated factors affecting angler access among 19 lakes that lacked sufficient natural reproduction to support salmonid fisheries and that were stocked at 1-, 2-, or 4-year intervals with fingerling cutthroat trout. We found that angler accessibility was probably the primary factor affecting stock structure, whereas stocking rates affected the densities of cutthroat trout among lakes. The maximum number of years survived after stocking appeared to have the greatest affect on biomass and population structure. Our findings suggest that control of harvest and manipulation of stocking densities can affect the density, biomass, and structure of cutthroat trout stocks in high-elevation lakes.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2022

Special section overview: Effects of ecosystem change on North American percid populations.

Walleye Sander vitreus , Sauger S. canadensis , and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens (referred to as percids herein) are collectively among the most culturally and ecologically important fish species in North America. As ecosystems change in response to environmental drivers, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, there is a need to understand how percid populations respond to these changes. To address this need, a symposium was held during the 81st Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference to bring fishery scientists and managers together to describe and discuss percid population responses to ecosystem change. Prevailing symposium themes included the challenge of identifying mechanisms responsible for population-level changes, developing strategies to adaptively manage for resilient fisheries, and consideration of scale, context, and methods when interpreting variable results. Given the uncertainty of how ecosystem changes affect percid populations, participants emphasized the importance of communicating uncertainties to stakeholders, implementing data-driven management strategies, setting realistic goals, and revising management actions in an adaptive framework. There was universal agreement on both the challenge and necessity of facilitating constructive engagement among stakeholders in cooperative decision making. Symposium participants identified knowledge gaps and discussed future efforts to build on our current understanding of percid populations, including continuation of long-term monitoring, improved standardization of evaluation metrics, implementing adaptive management experiments to identify causal relationships, development of more robust analytical methods, use of historical data sources, and refining techniques to realistically convey management options to stakeholders.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2010

Policies and practices of beach monitoring in the Great Lakes, USA: a critical review

Beaches throughout the Great Lakes are monitored for fecal indicator bacteria (typically Escherichia coli) in order to protect the public from potential sewage contamination. Currently, there is no universal standard for sample collection and analysis or results interpretation. Monitoring policies are developed by individual beach management jurisdictions, and applications are highly variable across and within lakes, states, and provinces. Extensive research has demonstrated that sampling decisions for time, depth, number of replicates, frequency of sampling, and laboratory analysis all influence the results outcome, as well as calculations of the mean and interpretation of the results in policy decisions. Additional shortcomings to current monitoring approaches include appropriateness and reliability of currently used indicator bacteria and the overall goal of these monitoring programs. Current research is attempting to circumvent these complex issues by developing new tools and methods for beach monitoring. In this review, we highlight the variety of sampling routines used across the Great Lakes and the extensive body of research that challenges comparisons among beaches. We also assess the future of Great Lakes monitoring and the advantages and disadvantages of establishing standards that are evenly applied across all beaches.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2012

Low genetic diversity and minimal population substructure in the endangered Florida manatee: implications for conservation

Species of management concern that have been affected by human activities typically are characterized by low genetic diversity, which can adversely affect their ability to adapt to environmental changes. We used 18 microsatellite markers to genotype 362 Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris), and investigated genetic diversity, population structure, and estimated genetically effective population size (Ne). The observed and expected heterozygosity and average number of alleles were 0.455 ± 0.04, 0.479 ± 0.04, and 4.77 ± 0.51, respectively. All measures of Florida manatee genetic diversity were less than averages reported for placental mammals, including fragmented or nonideal populations. Overall estimates of differentiation were low, though significantly greater than zero, and analysis of molecular variance revealed that over 95% of the total variance was among individuals within predefined management units or among individuals along the coastal subpopulations, with only minor portions of variance explained by between group variance. Although genetic issues, as inferred by neutral genetic markers, appear not to be critical at present, the Florida manatee continues to face demographic challenges due to anthropogenic activities and stochastic factors such as red tides, oil spills, and disease outbreaks; these can further reduce genetic diversity of the manatee population.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2026

Predicted genetic consequences of alternative population control strategies for North American plains bison in Yellowstone National Park

North American plains bison ( Bison bison bison ) in Yellowstone National Park are descendant from a population low of 23 indigenous individuals from the late 1800s, and 21 individuals introduced from outside herds in the early 1900s to strengthen the possibility of recovery. Within the park, the herd has rebounded and now averages around 5,000 animals. The herd is managed as a closed population within the park and adjacent areas in Montana, USA, which involves annual removals of animals to control numbers. We used genetic simulation to first isolate the effects of population size on retention of genetic diversity, and second to predict the genetic consequences of different population control strategies that vary in the number of bison removed annually, and their relatedness, while considering varying degrees of male dominance and environmental catastrophes. We found through simulation of a stable population that a herd size >2,500 had a high probability (>0.9) of retaining genetic diversity at levels compatible with long-term conservation (>90% of the initial genetic variation over 200 years), but a herd of 3,500 or more had a high likelihood (>0.9) of retaining levels of genetic variation (95%) suggested for maintaining evolutionary potential. When simulating the removals based on plausible management strategies available to the National Park Service, we found that maintaining a herd size of 3,500 or more, limiting removals to less than 40% of the population at a time, keeping a balanced sex ratio, and preferentially removing related individuals would likely retain more than 95% of existing genetic variation. With a herd size of 3,500 animals or more, population catastrophes and male dominance only influenced genetic retention in the most extreme cases, such as a catastrophic population decline of over 95%, a prolonged decline from 90% to 10% over 5 years, or extreme male dominance where 1% of males produced all offspring each year.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Grass carp reproduction in small tributaries of Truman Reservoir, Missouri: Implications for establishment in novel habitats

Substantial work has been conducted to estimate the river length required for recruitment of invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella and bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix ); however, the distance upstream and size of stream required for spawning remain unclear. Adult Grass Carp are regularly captured in Harry S. Truman Reservoir, Missouri, although there have been only unconfirmed sightings of Silver Carp. Fertile diploid Grass Carp are used legally for vegetation control in Missouri; however, it is uncertain whether Grass Carp in Harry S. Truman Reservoir are the result of natural reproduction or escapees. We used ichthyoplankton tows and environmental DNA (eDNA) to investigate which carp species were present in the reservoir basin and to determine whether these carps were spawning in reservoir tributaries. Grass Carp eggs were collected in four of five tributaries during June 2014. We did not detect eggs, larvae, or eDNA of Bighead Carp or Silver Carp. The occurrence of Grass Carp eggs generally coincided with rapid increases in discharge and turbidity. These tributaries may be the smallest rivers worldwide in which spawning of Grass Carp has been documented. We infer from the developmental stages captured and the distance from the reservoir that sufficient river length exists for egg survival. These results have broad implications concerning the establishment of Grass Carp in other novel habitats, including other reservoirs and lake basins, smaller rivers, and the Laurentian Great Lakes ecosystem.

Missouri↗
USGS2019

Differences in mosquito communities in six cities in Oklahoma

Vector-borne diseases in the United States have recently increased as a result of the changing nature of vectors, hosts, reservoirs, pathogens, and the ecological and environmental conditions. Current information on vector habitats and how mosquito community composition varies across space and time is vital to successful vector-borne disease management. This study characterizes mosquito communities in urban areas of Oklahoma, United States, an ecologically diverse region in the southern Great Plains. Between May and September 2016, 11,996 female mosquitoes of 34 species were collected over 798 trap nights using three different trap types in six Oklahoma cities. The most abundant species trapped were Culex pipiens L. complex (32.4%) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) (12.0%). Significant differences among mosquito communities were detected using analysis of similarities (ANOSIM) between the early (May–July) and late (August–September) season. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) further highlighted the cities of Altus and Idabel as relatively unique mosquito communities, mostly due to the presence of Aedes aegypti (L.) and salt-marsh species and absence of Aedes triseriatus (Say) in Altus and an abundance of Ae. albopictus in Idabel. These data underscore the importance of assessing mosquito communities in urban environments found in multiple ecoregions of Oklahoma to allow customized vector management targeting the unique assemblage of species found in each city.

Oklahoma↗
USGS2017

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

Journal of Herpetology↗
USGS2020

Development and testing of species-specific quantitative PCR assays for environmental DNA applications

New, non-invasive methods for detecting and monitoring species presence are being developed to aid in fisheries and wildlife conservation management. The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) samples for detecting macrobiota is one such group of methods that is rapidly becoming popular and being implemented in national management programs. Here we focus on the development of species-specific targeted assays for probe-based quantitative PCR (qPCR) applications. Using probe-based qPCR offers greater specificity than is possible with primers alone. Furthermore, the ability to quantify the amount of DNA in a sample can be useful in our understanding of the ecology of eDNA and the interpretation of eDNA detection patterns in the field. Careful consideration is needed in the development and testing of these assays to ensure the sensitivity and specificity of detecting the target species from an environmental sample. In this protocol we will delineate the steps needed to design and test probe-based assays for the detection of a target species; including creation of sequence databases, assay design, assay selection and optimization, testing assay performance, and field validation. Following these steps will help achieve an efficient, sensitive, and specific assay that can be used with confidence. We demonstrate this process with our assay designed for populations of the mucket ( Actinonaias ligamentina ), a freshwater mussel species found in the Clinch River, USA.

JOVE Journal Of Visualized Experiments↗
USGS2016

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex , an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2016

A framework for assessing the feasibility of native fish conservation translocations: Applications to threatened bull trout

There is an urgent need to consider more aggressive and direct interventions for the conservation of freshwater fishes that are threatened by invasive species, habitat loss, and climate change. Conservation introduction (moving a species outside its indigenous range to other areas where conditions are predicted to be more suitable) is one type of translocation strategy that fisheries managers can use to establish new conservation populations in areas of refugia. To date, however, there are few examples of successful conservation-based introductions. Many attempts fail to establish new populations—in part because environmental factors that might influence success are inadequately evaluated before the translocation is implemented. We developed a framework to assess the feasibility of rescuing threatened fish populations through translocation into historically unoccupied stream and lake habitats. The suitability of potential introduction sites was evaluated based on four major components: the recipient habitat, recipient community, donor population, and future threats. Specific questions were then developed to evaluate each major component. The final assessment was based on a scoring system that addressed each question by using criteria developed from characteristics representative of highly suitable habitats and populations. This framework was used to evaluate the proposed within-drainage translocation of three Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus populations in Glacier National Park, Montana. Our results indicated that within-drainage translocation is a feasible strategy for conserving locally adapted populations of Bull Trout through the creation of new areas of refugia in Glacier National Park. The framework provides a flexible platform that can help managers make informed decisions for moving threatened fishes into new areas of refugia for conservation and recovery programs.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2001

Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.

Beaufort Sea↗
USGS2026

Response of juvenile Chinook Salmon to an experimental reservoir operation to facilitate downstream migration

Objectives High-head dams and storage reservoirs impact ecological processes, impeding recovery efforts of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. in the western United States. These projects can delay migration, increase risks of predation and disease, and induce mortality for juvenile Pacific salmon during downstream passage. To mitigate these negative effects, large-scale changes to dam operations have been proposed as interim measures or alternatives to engineered fish passage solutions. A novel deep drawdown operation of the Lookout Point Project (two dams and reservoirs) in Oregon serves as a case study for learning from a large-scale management experiment. Beginning in July 2024, Lookout Point Reservoir was slowly lowered to attain minimal levels from mid-November to mid-December with the intent of expediting downstream passage through the project for juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha . We evaluated the impacts of the months-long operation on two life histories of juvenile Chinook Salmon with different rearing environments and growth rates. Methods Acoustic telemetry was used to monitor juvenile Chinook Salmon in the Lookout Point Project. Environmental data, including water temperature and hydrological conditions, were collected. We fitted a time-integrated migration survival model to these data to estimate the effects of management-influenced covariates and fish length on apparent survival and residence time in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Results Larger fish had higher survival than smaller fish in each reach of the Lookout Point Project. Apparent survival through each dam of the Lookout Point Project was highest and forebay residence times lowest during the latter part of the drawdown (late November). However, early periods of the drawdown (September) were associated with a transition from a thermally stratified reservoir to a warm isothermal reservoir that negatively impacted reservoir survival. Conclusions The deep drawdown of the Lookout Point Project achieved the management intent to improve downstream passage for juvenile Chinook Salmon at the lowest reservoir elevations but also caused unintended changes in the reservoir rearing environment prior to full drawdown. Further research could resolve remaining uncertainties regarding the overall effectiveness of drawdown operations with respect to the population dynamics of different juvenile life history strategies. Understanding these factors would help optimize future management actions aimed at Pacific salmon recovery above the Lookout Point Project.

Oregon↗