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At least 559 records · Page 31Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Potential impacts of future urbanization and sea level rise on Florida’s natural resources

As urban development continues to encroach into natural systems, these ecosystems experience increasing degradation to their form and function. Losses in biodiversity and ecosystem function are further compounded by changing climatic conditions. The State of Florida is known for its biodiversity but has experienced declines in species populations and habitats because of urbanization and sea level rise. These declines are particularly challenging in an economy that benefits from a multibillion-dollar income from natural resources tourism. In this study, we assessed the potential future impacts of urbanization and sea level rise on a suite of conservation targets that have been set for the State. We developed six scenarios of all combinations of intermediate and high sea level rise paired with two types of urbanization (sprawling and compact) in both 2040 and 2070 to examine the potential future threats to conservation targets in High Pine and Scrub, Coastal Uplands, and Freshwater Aquatics ecosystems. Our results show projected decreases in extent and area of these priority ecosystems into the future. Florida's current trend in urbanization practices are projected to have a greater impact on conservation targets than if sprawl reduction practices are implemented. Coastal Uplands are projected to experience the greatest loss in area, at up to 47%. Conservation-focused urban planning and climate adaptation strategies can help protect Florida's natural resources with benefits to Florida's tourism economy as well as critical ecosystem functions and services such as coastal flood protection and storm surge risk reduction.

Florida↗
USGS2003

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS1998

Synthetic aperture radar interferometry coherence analysis over Katmai volcano group, Alaska

The feasibility of measuring volcanic deformation or monitoring deformation of active volcanoes using space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry depends on the ability to maintain phase coherence over appropriate time intervals. Using ERS 1 C band (λ=5.66 cm) SAR imagery, we studied the seasonal and temporal changes of the interferometric SAR coherence for fresh lava, weathered lava, tephra with weak water reworking, tephra with strong water reworking, and fluvial deposits representing the range of typical volcanic surface materials in the Katmai volcano group, Alaska. For interferograms based on two passes with 35 days separation taken during the same summer season, we found that coherence increases after early June, reaches a peak between the middle of July and the middle of September, and finally decreases until the middle of November when coherence is completely lost for all five sites. Fresh lava has the highest coherence, followed by either weathered lava or fluvial deposits. These surfaces maintain relatively high levels of coherence for periods up to the length of the summer season. Coherence degrades more rapidly with time for surfaces covered with tephra. For images taken in different summers, only the lavas maintained coherence well enough to provide useful interferometric images, but we found only a small reduction in coherence after the first year for surfaces with lava. Measurement of volcanic deformation is possible using summer images spaced a few years apart, as long as the surface is dominated by lavas. Our studies suggest that in order to make volcanic monitoring feasible along the Aleutian arc or other regions with similar climatic conditions, observation intervals of the satellite with C band SAR should be at least every month from July through September, every week during the late spring/early summer or late fall, and every 2–3 days during the winter.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2015

Status and conservation of interior Redband Trout in the western United States

In this article we describe the current status and conservation of interior (potamodromous) Redband Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss sspp. throughout its range in the western United States using extant data and expert opinion provided by fish managers. Redband Trout historically occupied 60,295 km of stream habitat and 152 natural lakes. Currently, Redband Trout occupy 25,417 km of stream habitat (42% of their historical range) and 124 lakes or reservoirs. Nonhybridized populations are assumed to occupy 11,695 km (46%) of currently occupied streams; however, fish from only 4,473 km (18%) have been genetically tested. Approximately 47% of the streams occupied by Redband Trout occur on private land, 45% on government lands, and 8% in protected areas. A total of 210 Redband Trout populations, occupying 15,252 km of stream habitat (60% of the current distribution) and 95,158 ha of lake habitat (52%), are being managed as “conservation populations.” Most conservation populations have been designated as weakly to strongly connected metapopulations (125; 60%) and occupy much more stream length (14,112 km; 93%) than isolated conservation populations (1,141 km; 7%). The primary threats to Redband Trout include invasive species, habitat degradation and fragmentation, and climate change. Although the historical distribution of interior Redband Trout has declined dramatically, we conclude that the species is not currently at imminent risk of extinction because it is still widely distributed with many populations isolated by physical barriers and active conservation efforts are occurring for many populations. However, the hybridization status of many populations has not been well quantified, and introgression may be more prevalent than documented here. We recommend (1) collecting additional genetic data and estimating distribution and abundance by means of a more rigorous spatial sampling design to reduce uncertainties, (2) collecting additional information to assess and predict the impacts of climate on populations, and (3) continuing to use this database to evaluate the status of Redband Trout and inform conservation efforts through time.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗
USGS2013

Influence of monsoon-related riparian phenology on yellow-billed cuckoo habitat selection in Arizona

Aim: The western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis), a Neotropical migrant bird, is facing steep population declines in its western breeding grounds owing primarily to loss of native habitat. The favoured esting habitat for the cuckoo in the south-western United States is low-elevation riparian forests and woodlands. Our aim was to explore relationships between vegetation phenology patterns captured by satellite phenometrics and the distribution of the yellow-billed cuckoo, and to use this information to map cuckoo habitat. Location: Arizona, USA. Methods: Land surface phenometrics were derived from satellite Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), bi-weekly time-composite, ormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for 1998 and 1999 at a resolution of 1 km. Fourier harmonics were used to analyse the waveform of the annual NDVI profile in each pixel. To create the models, we coupled 1998 satellite phenometrics with 1998 field survey data of cuckoo presence or absence and with point data that sampled riparian and cottonwood–willow vegetation types. Our models were verified and refined using field and satellite data collected in 1999. Results: The models reveal that cuckoos prefer areas that experience peak greenness 29 days later, are 36% more dynamic and slightly (< 1%) more productive than their average cottonwood–willow habitat. The results support a scenario in which cuckoos migrate northwards, following the greening of riparian corridors and surrounding landscapes in response to monsoon precipitation, but then select a nesting site based on optimizing the near-term foraging potential of the neighbourhood. Main conclusions: The identification of preferred phenotypes within recognized habitat can be used to refine future habitat models, inform habitat response to climate change, and suggest adaptation strategies. For example, models of phenotype preferences can guide management actions by identifying and prioritizing for conservation those landscapes that reliably exhibit highly preferred phenometrics on a consistent basis.

Arizona↗
USGS2000

Responses of stable bay-margin and barrier-island systems to Holocene sea-level highstands, western Gulf of Mexico

The microtidal, wave-dominated coast of the western Gulf of Mexico displays a variety of Holocene geomorphic features indicating higher-than-present water levels that were previously attributed to storm processes while geoidal sea level was at its present position. Field and aerial-photograph examinations of bay margins, barrier islands, and beach-ridge plains following major hurricanes show that the elevated features are inundated periodically by high storm surge. Despite their inundation, these highstand features are not modified by modern storm processes. Instead, storm-related erosion and deposition are always seaward of and lower than the highstand features and are always limited to the extant shorezone, where elevations typically are less than 1.5 m above present sea level. Bay-margin and lagoonal highstand indicators include raised marshes and subtidal flats, wave-cut benches, abandoned wave-cut scarps with fringing marshes and/or beach ridges, and accretionary islands and recurved spits. Other emergent marine features include abandoned compound flood-tidal delta and washover fan complexes attached to barrier islands and anomalously high beach ridges within both the barrier-island complexes and beach-ridge plains. The highest beach ridges, raised marshes and flats, and erosional scarps and benches are manifestations of one or more rising phases and highstands in sea level, whereas the lower marshes and accretionary topography are mainly products of the falling phases and shoreface adjustment to present sea level. Different elevations of beach-ridge sets, discordant truncation of beach ridges, and elevated marine- and brackish-water faunal assemblages preserved in beach ridges, raised marshes and flats, and natural levees are compelling evidence of sea-level fluctuations of ±1 to 1.5 m from about 5500 to 1200 cal yr BP. Independent evidence from studies of geodynamic, climatic, and glacio-eustatic processes can explain the mid-Holocene highstands and late Holocene lowering of sea level that is observed in tectonically stable coastal regions far from former centers of glaciation.

Journal of Sedimentary Research↗
USGS2019

Seasonal variation in sediment and phosphorus yields in four Wisconsin agricultural watersheds

Agricultural water quality projects in two distinct topographic regions in Wisconsin collected 5 to 10 yr of continuous stream discharge, suspended sediment (SS), total P (TP), and total dissolved P (TDP) in four watersheds (2100–5000 ha) from 2006 to 2016. Previous agricultural nonpoint SS and TP reduction efforts in two of these watersheds documented cold versus warm season differences in water quality response. The goal of this study was to identify seasonal partitioning of SS, TP, and TDP in storm event loads to inform stream water quality protection efforts. We used National Weather Service Coop Observer frost depth reports to identify dates when watershed soils were frozen. By comparing daily mean event discharge for dates relative to frost, we identified a 32‐d post‐frost high‐discharge “thaw” period. Combined, the frozen and thaw periods contributed about half of the annual SS and TP runoff event loads, ranging from 47 to 63% for SS and from 45 to 51% for TP. The proportion of runoff event TDP during this time was even higher, 62 to 79%, with the majority during thaw. Watershed average volumetric runoff coefficients (event flow/precipitation and snowmelt) were two to four times higher during the freeze and the thaw compared with the rest of the year. To reduce total stream loads in regions with similar climates to Wisconsin, this study indicates that using management practices that curb sediment and P delivery to streams in the winter and early spring may be as important as those designed for nonfrozen conditions.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2012

Short seed longevity, variable germination conditions, and infrequent establishment events provide a narrow window for Yucca brevifolia (Agavaceae) recruitment

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The future of long-lived stand-forming desert plants such as Yucca brevifolia (Joshua tree) has come into question in light of climate variation and landscape-scale disturbances such as wildfire. Understanding plant establishment dynamics is important for mitigating the impacts of disturbances and promoting revegetation. • METHODS: We placed Y. brevifolia seeds in shallow caches and manipulated granivore access, nurse shrub effects, and the season of cache placement to determine conditions for seed germination and seedling establishment. • KEY RESULTS: Greatest seedling emergence occurred during spring and summer, when increased soil moisture was accompanied by warm soil temperatures. Late winter-spring emergence for cached seeds was enhanced beneath shrub canopies, but seedling survival declined beneath shrubs as temperatures increased in spring. Germinability of seed remaining in the soil was reduced from 50-68% after 12 mo residence time in soil and declined to <3% after 40 mo. Following dispersal from parent plants, seeds are either removed by granivores or lose germinability, imposing substantial losses of potential germinants. • CONCLUSIONS: Specific germination and establishment requirements impose stringent limits on recruitment rates for Y. brevifolia. Coupled with infrequent seed availability, the return rates to prefire densities and demographic structure may require decades to centuries, especially in light of potential changes to regional desert climate in combination with the potential for fire recurrence. Demographic patterns are predicted to vary spatially in response to environmental variability that limits recruitment and may already be apparent among extant populations.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2021

Widespread exposures of extensive clean shallow ice in the mid-latitudes of Mars

Although ice in the Martian midlatitudes is typically covered by a layer of dust or regolith, it is exposed in some locations by fresh impact craters or in erosional scarps. In both cases, the exposed ice is massive or excess ice with a low lithic content. We find that erosional scarps occur between 50° and 61° north and south latitude and that they are concentrated in and near Milankovič crater in the northern hemisphere and southeast of the Hellas basin in the southern hemisphere. These may represent locations of particularly thick or clean bodies of ice. Pits created by retreat of the scarps represent sublimation-thermokarst landforms that evolve in a manner distinct from other ice-loss landforms on Mars. New impact craters reveal that clean subsurface ice is widespread at middle- and high-latitudes in both hemispheres at depths less than 1 m. Both the depth to ice and the ice content appear to exhibit significant variability over tens to hundreds of meters. The lowest-latitude exposed ice is near 39°N and is at the edge of a region where impact exposures between 40° and 50°N are common, consistent with other indications of a high ice content. This lowest-latitude ice may be currently unstable and subliming. Impact craters on lineated valley fill excavate ice blocks that may represent the top of debris-covered glacial ice. Together, these landforms indicate widespread, clean subsurface ice at middle-latitudes on Mars. The distribution and properties of this ice could provide information about past climate conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗
USGS2009

Characterization of clouds in Titan's tropical atmosphere

Images of Titan's clouds, possible over the past 10 years, indicate primarily discrete convective methane clouds near the south and north poles and an immense stratiform cloud, likely composed of ethane, around the north pole. Here we present spectral images from Cassini's Visual Mapping Infrared Spectrometer that reveal the increasing presence of clouds in Titan's tropical atmosphere. Radiative transfer analyses indicate similarities between summer polar and tropical methane clouds. Like their southern counterparts, tropical clouds consist of particles exceeding 5 ??m. They display discrete structures suggestive of convective cumuli. They prevail at a specific latitude band between 8??-20?? S, indicative of a circulation origin and the beginning of a circulation turnover. Yet, unlike the high latitude clouds that often reach 45 km altitude, these discrete tropical clouds, so far, remain capped to altitudes below 26 km. Such low convective clouds are consistent with the highly stable atmospheric conditions measured at the Huygens landing site. Their characteristics suggest that Titan's tropical atmosphere has a dry climate unlike the south polar atmosphere, and despite the numerous washes that carve the tropical landscape. ?? 2009. The American Astronomical Society.

Astrophysical Journal↗
USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2004

Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae

1. We use capture-recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae . We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2. We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5-15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2-2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life-states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89-0.99, mean 0.95). 3. At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3-month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March-May) of the previous year. 4. Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy. 4. Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy.

West Virginia↗
USGS2010

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location: Europe. Methods: We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns. Results: Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions: Our Results: demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climateinduced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2007

Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS2022

Understanding the water resources of a mountain-block aquifer: Tucson Mountains, Arizona

Water resources are limited in arid locations such as Tucson Basin. Residential development in the Tucson Mountains to the west of Tucson, Arizona, is limited by groundwater resources. Groundwater samples were collected from fractured bedrock and alluvial aquifers surrounding the Tucson Mountains to assess water quality and recharge history through measurement of stable O, H, and S isotopes; tritium; and 14 C. Most groundwater is a mixture of different ages but is commonly several thousand years old. A few sampling locations indicated a component of water recharged after the above-ground nuclear testing of the mid 1950s, and these sites may represent locations near where the aquifer receives present-day recharge. The Tucson Mountains also host sulfide deposits associated with fractures and replacement zones; these locally contribute to poor-quality groundwater. Projections of future climate predict intensifying drought in southwestern North America. In the study area, a combination of strategies such as rainwater harvesting, exploitation of renewable water, and low groundwater use could be used for sustainable use of the groundwater supply.

Arizona↗
USGS2015

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗
USGS2013

Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

Michigan;Minnesota;Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions

High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscape conditions differ, which becomes a source of uncertainty when they are applied to subsequent analyses. Here we tested the range of values from five gridded climate datasets. We compared their values to observations from 1231 weather stations, first using each dataset’s native scale, and then after each was rescaled to 270-m resolution. We inputted the downscaled grids to a mechanistic hydrology model and assessed the spatial results of six hydrological variables across California, in 10 ecoregions and 11 large watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. PRISM was most accurate for precipitation, ClimateNA for maximum temperature, and TopoWx for minimum temperature. The single most accurate dataset overall was PRISM due to the best performance for precipitation and low air temperature errors. Hydrological differences ranged up to 70% of the average monthly streamflow with an average of 35% disagreement for all months derived from different historical climate maps. Large differences in minimum air temperature data produced differences in modeled actual evapotranspiration, snowpack, and streamflow. Areas with the highest variability in climate data, including the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains ecoregions, also had the largest spread for snow water equivalent, recharge, and runoff.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗