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Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

Journal of Hydrology↗

Disturbance automated reference toolset (DART): Assessing patterns in ecological recovery from energy development on the Colorado Plateau

A new disturbance automated reference toolset (DART) was developed to monitor human land surface impacts using soil-type and ecological context. DART identifies reference areas with similar soils, topography, and geology; and compares the disturbance condition to the reference area condition using a quantile-based approach based on a satellite vegetation index. DART was able to represent 26–55% of variation of relative differences in bare ground and 26–41% of variation in total foliar cover when comparing sites with nearby ecological reference areas using the Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI). Assessment of ecological recovery at oil and gas pads on the Colorado Plateau with DART revealed that more than half of well-pads were below the 25th percentile of reference areas. Machine learning trend analysis of poorly recovering well-pads (quantile < 0.23) had out-of-bag error rates between 37 and 40% indicating moderate association with environmental and management variables hypothesized to influence recovery. Well-pads in grasslands (median quantile [MQ] = 13%), blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ) shrublands (MQ = 18%), arid canyon complexes (MQ = 18%), warmer areas with more summer-dominated precipitation, and state administered areas (MQ = 12%) had low recovery rates. Results showcase the usefulness of DART for assessing discrete surface land disturbances, and highlight the need for more targeted rehabilitation efforts at oil and gas well-pads in the arid southwest US.

Colorado Plateau↗

Multi-year persistence of oil mousse on high energy beaches distant from the Exxon Valdez spill origin

For at least 5 yr after the Exxon Valdez spill, relatively unweathered oil mousse has persisted on the exposed rocky shores of Shelikof Strait 500 km from Prince William Sound, Alaska. Previously it was thought that oil would be rapidly removed from such geomorphic settings by wave action. Oil mousse persists at sites in Katmai National Park and Preserve (NP&P) where it was stranded high in the intertidal zone under a lag of large boulders. These boulders armor the beach, preventing waves from disturbing the substrate and its included oil. Weathering of this stranded mousse has been slight – mousse sampled in 1989, 1992 and 1994 show negligible changes in polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons compared to 11-day old Exxon Valdez crude. The preservation of this oil is due to its transport as mousse boli whose interiors largely escape weathering, followed by its sheltering in the interstices of boulder-armored beaches. The transport of mousse may allow for the long distance dispersal of less weathered, and hence still toxic oil. Our findings suggest that the low ecological sensitivity ratings previously applied to exposed, rocky shorelines need to be modified. The biological threat posed by oil stranded on the Katmai NP&P coast probably is slight because of its small amount and sequestered state. However, it still possesses the ability to be chemically toxic and could be released through disturbance of the armoring boulders by unusually high wave events.

Alaska↗

Long-term, high-resolution permafrost monitoring reveals coupled energy balance and hydrogeologic controls on talik dynamics near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Québec, Canada)

Rising temperatures in the Arctic and subarctic are driving the rapid thaw of permafrost by reducing permafrost cooling, increasing active layer thickness, and promoting talik formation. In this study, the cyrohydrogeology of a permafrost mound located within the discontinuous permafrost zone near Umiujaq (Nunavik, Québec, Canada) is characterized through the analysis of a dataset covering more than two decades of monitoring. This dataset captures a high degree of interannual variability in air temperature and ground thermal conditions, as well as the formation and closure of a supra-permafrost talik. Data indicate that variable saturation and advective heat transport directly contribute to the expansion and contraction of the talik. Data further indicate the presence of two distinct thermo-hydrologic settings resulting from differences in surface conditions, as well as subsurface thermal and flow regimes. The first, found at the top of the mound feature, is characterized by very low moisture contents (< 0.05 m 3 /m 3 ), while the second, found at the side of the mound feature, shows higher annual moisture contents that strongly influence the dynamics of heat and groundwater flow. The data were synthesized into a detailed conceptual model of the cyrohydrogeological dynamics that highlights the important role of hydrogeological characterization and long-term datasets in understanding the effects of groundwater flow on seasonal frost and permafrost dynamics. Specifically, the results presented here show that in the absence of long-term datasets, longer-period transient phenomena such as talik opening and closure may be misrepresented as uni-directional feedback loops, as opposed to highly-dynamic temporary phenomena.

Nunavik, Quebec↗

A novel surface energy balance method for thermal inertia studies of terrestrial analogs

Surface thermal inertia derived from satellite imagery offers a valuable tool for remotely mapping the physical structure and water content of planetary regolith. Efforts to quantify thermal inertia using surface temperatures on Earth, however, have consistently yielded large uncertainties and suffered from a lack of reproducibility. Unlike dry or airless bodies, Earth's abundant water and dense atmosphere lead to dynamic thermophysical conditions that are a greater challenge to model than on a world like Mars. In this work, an approach was developed using field experiments to inform and fine-tune a thermophysical model of terrestrial sediment and calculate an inherent thermal inertia value with higher precision and less initial knowledge of the sediment than has previously been achieved remotely on Earth. A thermal inertia derived for a basaltic tephra site in Northern Arizona was replicated within 1% between different field seasons, demonstrating reproducibility. Model-derived values were validated in situ by two different thermophysical field probes to within 8% of the measured mean values. Analog studies such as this hold the promise of improved interpretations of surface materials on Mars, and an accurate thermal model for Earth is the key step to enabling translation between the two worlds.

Earth and Space Science↗

Large streamflow differences between forested and urbanized watersheds in the energy-limited eastern United States: The role of evapotranspiration and impervious surfaces

Urban forests and other green infrastructures have been viewed as part of the “Nature-based Solutions” (NbS) to mitigate emerging urban environmental change. This study focuses on the role of evapotranspiration (ET) in regulating water balances of small watersheds in the eastern United States. We compared streamflow and ET patterns at daily, monthly and annual scales and linked these hydrological variables to the physical properties of 11 paired watersheds dominated by forests (FW) or urban (UW) land covers. The annual precipitation ranged from 1028 mm to 1683 mm and potential ET (PET) from 815 mm to 1450 mm. The mean annual flow/precipitation (Q/P) ratios were 0.26 ± 0.13 and 0.41 ± 0.1 for FW and UW, respectively. Overall, UW had lower annual ET (772 mm in UW vs. 947 mm in FW), but higher mean annual and (∼58% higher), monthly water yield (17%–186% higher), and peakflow rates (up to 100 times higher) than FW. The streamflow differences between FW and UW were most pronounced during the growing season and early winter (June-November). The mean Q/P ratios for 30 large hurricane events (2016–2021) were 0.12 ± 0.11 and 0.38 ± 0.23 for FW and UW, respectively. The flow rates in the dormant season (around December-May) in UW were similar or lower than FW. We developed conceptual models to explain the seasonal and storm event streamflow differences using background climate (PET), ET, and land surface characteristics. Urban NbS designs should factor in strategies that maximize ET while minimizing impervious surfaces enhancing watershed “sponge” and “pump” functions.

eastern United States↗

High-energy nearshore processes

The problem of shoreline erosion has become a matter of much interest in the recent press. To some extent this interest has been driven by the slow rise in sea level that has lent an air of inevitabilty to matters. However, the discussions certainly become more focused by the approach of a major storm or hurricane: for instance, the 1985 scare associated with Hurricane Gloria. In fact, it is these major events that dominate the episodic erosion history of an area, and so it is on the basis of knowledge of these events that decisions are made on the development and management of our shorelines. Unfortunately, both our understanding of the fundamental processes and the extent to which our knowledge is transmitted to coastal planners is less than we might hope.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Quasi-static fault growth and shear fracture energy in granite

The failure process in a brittle granite sample can be stabilized by controlling axial stress to maintain a constant rate of acoustic emission. As a result, the post-failure stress curve can be followed quasistatically, extending to hours the fault growth process which normally would occur violently in a fraction of a second. Using a procedure originally developed to locate earthquakes, acoustic emission arrival-time data are inverted to obtain three-dimensional locations of microseisms. These locations provide a detailed view of fracture nucleation and growth.

Nature↗

Sediment transport on a high-energy ebb-tidal delta

Six tripods were deployed at shallow (~14-m) and deep (~24-m) sites on the northern, middle, and southern flanks of the Grays Harbor, Washington, U.S.A. ebb-tidal delta from early October through December, 1999 to measure waves, currents, temperature, and suspended-sediment concentrations as part of a wave-refraction and sediment-transport experiment. Directional wave spectra show that the general direction of wave approach shifted from WNW to WSW as the North Pacific weather pattern shifted from summer to winter, and we were fortunate enough to capture a large storm (offshore significant wave heights of ~8 m) in late October and a sequence of about 8 smaller events with ~4 to 6-m waves in November and December. As expected, wave directions indicated refraction around the ebb-tidal delta, and varied with incident wave period and direction. Direct estimates of sediment flux about 0.4–0.6 m above the bottom, and modeled estimates of depth-integrated suspended sediment flux indicate net offshore and northward transport. By comparison, estimated net bedload flux was onshore, but at much lower rates. These results indicate that sand on the ebb-tidal delta can be mobilized frequently under winter conditions, and can bypass the inlet at depths of at least 24 m. The data also suggest that significant offshore transport occurs at these depths and that offshore suspended-sediment transport during winter is so great that it might not be balanced by onshore bedload transport.

Washington↗

Energy demands for maintenance, growth, pregnancy, and lactation of female Pacific walruses ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens )

Decreases in sea ice have altered habitat use and activity patterns of female Pacific walruses Odobenus rosmarus divergens and could affect their energetic demands, reproductive success, and population status. However, a lack of physiological data from walruses has hampered efforts to develop the bioenergetics models required for fully understanding potential population-level impacts. We analyzed long-term longitudinal data sets of caloric consumption and body mass from nine female Pacific walruses housed at six aquaria using a hierarchical Bayesian approach to quantify relative energetic demands for maintenance, growth, pregnancy, and lactation. By examining body mass fluctuations in response to food consumption, the model explicitly uncoupled caloric demand from caloric intake. This is important for pinnipeds because they sequester and deplete large quantities of lipids throughout their lifetimes. Model outputs were scaled to account for activity levels typical of free-ranging Pacific walruses, averaging 83% of the time active in water and 17% of the time hauled-out resting. Estimated caloric requirements ranged from 26,900 kcal d&minus;1 for 2-yr-olds to 93,370 kcal d&minus;1 for simultaneously lactating and pregnant walruses. Daily consumption requirements were higher for pregnancy than lactation, reflecting energetic demands of increasing body size and lipid deposition during pregnancy. Although walruses forage during lactation, fat sequestered during pregnancy sustained 27% of caloric requirements during the first month of lactation, suggesting that walruses use a mixed strategy of capital and income breeding. Ultimately, this model will aid in our understanding of the energetic and population consequences of sea ice loss.

Physiological and Biochemical Zoology↗

A comment on "bats killed in large numbers at United States wind energy facilities"

Widespread reports of bat fatalities caused by wind turbines have raised concerns about the impacts of wind power development. Reliable estimates of the total number killed and the potential effects on populations are needed, but it is crucial that they be based on sound data. In a recent BioScience article, Hayes (2013) estimated that over 600,000 bats were killed at wind turbines in the United States in 2012. The scientific errors in the analysis are numerous, with the two most serious being that the included sites constituted a convenience sample, not a representative sample, and that the individual site estimates are derived from such different methodologies that they are inherently not comparable. This estimate is almost certainly inaccurate, but whether the actual number is much smaller, much larger, or about the same is uncertain. An accurate estimate of total bat fatality is not currently possible, given the shortcomings of the available data.

BioScience↗

A landscape ecology approach to assessing development impacts in the tropics: A geothermal energy example in Hawaii

Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape patterns on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.

Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography↗

New geochemical tools for investigating resource and energy functions at deep-sea cold seeps using amino-acid δ15N in chemosymbiotic mussels (Bathymodiolus childressi)

In order to reconstruct the ecosystem structure of chemosynthetic environments in the fossil record, geochemical proxies must be developed. Here, we present a suite of novel compound-specific isotope parameters for tracing chemosynthetic production with a focus on understanding nitrogen dynamics in deep-sea cold seep environments. We examined the chemosymbiotic bivalve Bathymodiolus childressi from three geographically distinct seep sites on the NE Atlantic Margin and compared isotope data to non-chemosynthetic littoral mussels to test whether water depth, seep activity, and/or mussel bed size are linked to differences in chemosynthetic production. The bulk isotope analysis of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N), and δ 15 N values of individual amino acids (δ 15 N AA ) in both gill and muscle tissues, as well as δ 15 N AA- derived parameters including trophic level (TL), baseline δ 15 N value (δ 15 N Phe ), and a microbial resynthesis index (Σ V ), were used to investigate specific geochemical signatures of chemosynthesis. Our results show that δ 15 N AA values provide a number of new proxies for relative reliance on chemosynthesis, including TL, ∑V, and both δ 15 N values and molar percentages (Gly/Glu mol% index) of specific AA. Together, these parameters suggested that relative chemoautotrophy is linked to both degree of venting from seeps and mussel bed size. Finally, we tested a Bayesian mixing model using diagnostic AA δ 15 N values, showing that percent contribution of chemoautotrophic versus heterotrophic production to seep mussel nutrition can be directly estimated from δ 15 N AA values. Our results demonstrate that δ 15 N AA analysis can provide a new set of geochemical tools to better understand mixotrophic ecosystem function and energetics, and suggest extension to the study of ancient chemosynthetic environments in the fossil record.

Geobiology↗

The roller coaster flight strategy of bar-headed geese conserves energy during Himalayan migrations

The physiological and biomechanical requirements of flight at high altitude have been the subject of much interest. Here, we uncover a steep relation between heart rate and wingbeat frequency (raised to the exponent 3.5) and estimated metabolic power and wingbeat frequency (exponent 7) of migratory bar-headed geese. Flight costs increase more rapidly than anticipated as air density declines, which overturns prevailing expectations that this species should maintain high-altitude flight when traversing the Himalayas. Instead, a "roller coaster" strategy, of tracking the underlying terrain and discarding large altitude gains only to recoup them later in the flight with occasional benefits from orographic lift, is shown to be energetically advantageous for flights over the Himalayas.

Science↗