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Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988-2000. Applying the Matched Pairs Multivariate Permutation Test as a statistical tool was a new approach for comparing flyway distributions of waterfowl over time that seemed to work well. Based on this approach, the empirical evidence that I gathered led me to conclude that the base queuing model does accurately simulate swan distributions in the flyway. The system was insensitive to almost all model parameters tested. That remains perplexing, but might result from the base queuing model, itself, being particularly effective at representing the actual ecological diversity in the world of Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans, both spatial and temporally.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗

Efforts to eradicate yellow crazy ants on Johnston Atoll: Results from Crazy Ant Strike Team IX, December 2014-June 2015

The ecologically destructive yellow crazy ant (YCA; Anoplolepis gracilipes ) was first detected on Johnston Atoll in January 2010. Within eight months, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service had mobilized its first crazy ant strike team (CAST), a group of biologists dedicated to testing and identifying insecticidal baits to be used to eradicate the ant on the atoll. During December 2014‒May 2015 CAST IX focused on testing hydrogel crystals saturated with sucrose solution (25%) carrying the insecticides thiamethoxam and dinotefuran against YCA. A series of experiments, including artificial nest box trials, and field-based palatability trials and eradication tests on small (500 m2 or 0.05 ha) and large plots (2500 m2 or 0.25 ha), were conducted to test concentrations of thiamethoxam ranging from 0.0005% to 0.01%, and dinotefuran at 0.05%. Additionally, the cat food-based matrix containing dinotefuran (0.05%), the standard bait used to suppress YCA on Johnston since 2011, and textured vegetable protein (TVP) carrying dinotefuran at 0.1% and 0.05% were included in large plot tests. Nest box trials were inconclusive due to a consistent loss of queen and worker ants in control boxes, so they were discontinued. Palatability trials suggested higher dosages of thiamethoxam (0.005 and 0.01%) were less attractive than lower dosages (0.0005 and 0.001%) and controls (sucrose only), but small and large plot experiments failed to identify a thiamethoxam concentration that was consistently effective at killing YCA. In contrast, hydrogel containing dinotefuran was consistently effective, killing >95% of YCA on small and large plots. As expected, the cat food bait effectively reduced YCA abundances, but was slightly less effective than hydrogel containing dinotefuran over time. Three successive, approximately weekly treatments of large plots with hydrogel bait, or other baits followed by hydrogel bait, suggest an increasing overall effectiveness, with no aversion of YCA to the bait. This finding is important in that it indicates that hydrogel bait can be applied at short time intervals, potentially resulting in relatively constant exposure of YCA to highly attractive, yet toxic, sucrose-based bait. TVP performed similar to hydrogel, reducing YCA abundance >92% at both concentrations tested. Finally, dosages of hydrogel containing dinotefuran at 6, 12 and 24 l/0.25 ha were all effective at reducing YCA on large plots. Overall, results from these experiments suggest that hydrogel containing dinotefuran (0.05%) is a promising tool for eradicating YCA on Johnston Atoll.

Hawaii↗

Herpetology in the federal government: a personal view

In late 1976, I received a phone call from an ichthyological colleague who asked if I would be willing to take a temporary position in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Office of Endangered Species (OES) in Washington. They had a backlog of proposed and final rules that needed to be finished, and they thought that a 30-day stint by a temporary herpetologist would clear the slate. Thus began a 23-year odyssey through the sometimes bizarre, sometimes rewarding, sometimes discouraging, but always different federal government. Fortunately, I have been able to stay involved with herpetology, both as a science and in terms of conservation policy. In my career, I have worked both in an administrative and in a research capacity. Many individuals with an interest in herpetology enter the federal government as field biologists and drift into administration as they become older and removed from the dynamically changing nature of their science. I moved in the other direction.

Herpetologists' League Communications↗

Relative toxicities of similar formulations of pyrethrum and rotenone to fish and immature stoneflies

The insecticidal properties of rotenone and pyrethrum have been known for many years. Both toxicants have long histories of extensive use for control of a variety of insect pests. Rotenone has been also employed as a management tool by fishery biologists to rehabilitate fishing waters, and its toxicity to fish in a number of ecological situations is well established. Pyrethrum's toxicity to fish is less well known.

Pyrethrum Post↗

Analysis of the sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) reproductive tract: A methods manual

Reproduction in the female sea otter, Enhydra lutris, was relatively unstudied until Sinha et al. (1966) examined 140 reproductive tracts collected 1955-62 and used their findings to describe sea otter reproductive anatomy and biology. Two years later Sinha and Conaway (1968) published a more detailed paper on the ovary of the sea otter. These descriptive papers have been used as the basis for all subsequent studies of sea otter reproductive tracts. During biological collections of sea otters in the 1960s and 70s a large number of female carcasses became available to wildlife biologists. Using Sinha’s research, Schneider (1973) analyzed 1,482 female reproductive tracts to determine the timing of reproduction, gestation period, age of sexual maturity, fetal sex ratio and growth rate of otters in the Aleutian Islands. A similar study was conducted by Bodkin et al. (1993) on a sample of 177 females collected after the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill. Recently (von Biela 2007) examined 134 reproductive tracts obtained from beachcast and harvested otters across the three Alaskan population stocks as part of a Master’s thesis. As with most life history data, comparisons among and within populations that differ in status relative to equilibrium densities provide useful data with which to test hypotheses about the cause and effects of changes in demographic rates such as reproductive rate. However, in order to make such comparisons, methods used in different periods must be comparable. The purpose of this manual is to explicitly describe how to collect and analyze sea otter reproductive tracts for the determination of reproductive rate, pregnancy rate, percentage of mature females, and timing of reproduction so that the data will be directly comparable to that collected in the past. The techniques presented in this manual have been used to study sea otter populations over the last 50 years, and maintaining such consistency is essential to comparisons in the future. This manual is based on the methods of previous researchers and draws heavily on the published and unpublished works of James Bodkin, Karl Kenyon, Calvin Lensink, Daniel Mulcahy, Karl Schneider, and Akhouri Sinha. Most invaluable to the production of this manual were the direct communications with Karl Schneider and Dan Mulcahy. In each instance, researchers have communicated with each other to attain comparable methods. Recognizing that researchers in the future may not have this luxury, this guide has been produced to preserve the technique. In addition to using this manual, researchers should consult with colleagues experienced in the analysis of mammalian reproductive tracts, preferably specific to sea otters. Individuals are encouraged to contact V. von Biela with any questions. Sea otter reproductive tracts have most commonly come from either intentional sampling through harvests (Sinah et al. 1966, Schneider 1975) or unintentional large scale mortalities (e.g. the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill) (Bodkin et al. 1993). Carcasses and reproductive tracts can also be obtained through the collection of fresh beach cast carcasses. Analysis of reproductive tracts should consider the source of carcasses as samples representing either the “living” or “dead” sea otter population, as they may differ in reproductive parameters. In most cases the reproductive tracts are fixed in formalin or frozen (minimum of –20˚C) immediately after collection; both methods are acceptable for later analysis of the tissue. Immediate fixation is preferred as it is a necessary step in analysis. Uteri and ovaries are then examined to determine the current and past reproductive history of each individual. This manual also includes an example datasheet (Appendix A) and glossary (Appendix B).

Technical Report↗

Inventory of montane-nesting birds in Katmai and Lake Clark national parks and preserves

As part of the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, biologists from the U. S. Geological Survey’s Alaska Science Center conducted an inventory of birds in montane regions of Katmai and Lake Clark National Parks and Preserves during 2004–2006. We used a stratified random survey design to allocate samples by ecological subsection. To survey for birds, we conducted counts at 468 points across 29, 10-km x 10-km (6.2-mi x 6.2-mi) sample plots in Katmai and 417 points across 25, 10-km x 10-km sample plots in Lake Clark. We detected 92 and 104 species in Katmai and Lake Clark, respectively, including 40 species of conservation concern. We detected three species not previously recorded in Katmai (Ring-necked Duck [ Aythya collaris ], Lesser Scaup [ Aythya affinis ], and White-tailed Ptarmigan [ Lagopus leucurus ]) and two species not previously recorded in Lake Clark (Northern Flicker [ Colaptes auratus ] and Olive-sided Flycatcher [ Contopus cooperi ]). The most commonly detected species in both parks was Golden-crowned Sparrow ( Zonotrichia atricapilla ); Fox Sparrow ( Passerella iliaca ) and American Pipit ( Anthus rubescens ) were abundant and widely-distributed as well. We defined sites as low (100–350 m), middle (351–600 m), or high (601–1,620 m) elevation based on the distribution of vegetation cover, and similarly categorized the 34 most-commonly detected species based on the mean elevation of sample points at which they were detected. High elevation (i.e., alpine) sites were characterized by high percent cover of dwarf shrub and bare ground habitat and supported species like Rock Ptarmigan ( L. mutus ), American Golden-Plover ( Pluvialis dominica ), Wandering Tattler ( Tringa incana ), Surfbird ( Aphriza virgata ), and Snow Bunting ( Plectrophenax nivalis ), all species of conservation concern. This inventory represents the first systematic survey of birds nesting in montane regions of both parks. Results from this inventory can form the foundation of subsequent monitoring efforts

Alaska↗

Standardization of stain used for diagnosing erythrocytic inclusion body syndrome (EIBS)

Erythrocytic inclusion body syndrome (EIBS), a viral erythrocytic necrosis (VEN)-like disease, has been observed in several areas in the Northwest. This virus disease is clinically diagnosed by microscopic examination of blood smears for intracytoplasmic erythrocytic inclusion bodies. Fish biologists involved in EIBS diagnostic work have been using several types of hematological stains. It became apparent that standardization of the staining procedure was needed. Comparative tests were conducted on blood smears and kidney imprints with the following commonly used blood stains: (1) Leishman-Giesma, (2) Pinacyanol chloride, (3) Powell 's Giemsa, (4) Harleco's Giemsa, (5) Diff Quik differential stain, (6) Wright's. Pinacyanol chloride stain was found to be the most consistent. The following staining procedure is recommended.

Fish Health Newsletter↗

Toxicity to amphibians of environmental extracts from natural waters in National Parks and Fish and Wildlife Refuges

Amphibian population declines are not limited to overly degraded habitats, but often occur in relatively pristine environments such as national parks or wildlife refuges, thus forcing biologists to examine less obvious causes for declines such as the presence of contaminants. The objective of our study was to extract naturally-occurring compounds from amphibian habitats (using semipermeable membrane devices) in three national parks or wildlife refuges (two sites within Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park, Big Bend National Park, and Kenai National Wildlife Refuge), and assess their toxicity to developing larvae using bioassays. Extracts did not cause mortality, so all effects observed were sublethal, influencing life history characteristics. In all three areas studied, amphibians reared in extracts from at least one of the two sites exhibited either a lengthened larval period or reduced mass at metamorphosis. Extracts from both the air and water at one site in Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park lengthened the larval period, which is in agreement with studies showing elevated levels of aerially transported contaminants at sites such as this within the park. Ultraviolet radiation, which is also suspected of having caused amphibian declines and was included as a factor in our study, did not act alone or alter the toxicity of the extracts.

Alytes↗

Current and potential ant impacts in the Pacific region

Worldwide, ants are a powerful ecological force, and they appear to be dominant components of animal communities of many tropical and temperate ecosystems in terms of biomass and numbers of individuals (Bluthgen et al. 2000). For example, ants comprise up to 94% of arthropod individuals in fogging samples taken from diverse lowland tropical rainforest canopies, and 86% of the biomass (Davidson et al. 2003). The majority of these ant species and individuals obtain carbohydrates either from extrafloral nectaries or from sap-feeding Hemiptera that pass carbohydrate-rich “honeydew” to attending ants while concentrating nitrogen (N) from N-poor plant sap (Davidson et al. 2003). Honeydew and nectar represent key resources for arboreal ant species, although most ant species are at least partly carnivorous or scavengers (Bluthgen et al. 2004). In contrast to most of the terrestrial world, the biotas of many Pacific islands evolved without ants. Whereas endemic ant species are found in New Zealand (ca. 10 spp.), Tonga (ca. 10 spp.), and Samoa (ca. 12 spp.), other islands of Polynesia and parts of Micronesia likely lack native ants (Wilson and Taylor 1967, Wetterer 2002, Wetterer and Vargo 2003). About 20 Indo-Australian and western Pacific ant species range to the east and north of Samoa, but it is unclear how many of these were transported there by humans at some time (Wilson and Taylor 1967). Most of the remainder of the ant species currently found on Pacific islands are widespread species that fall in the category of “tramp species,” dispersed by recent human commerce and generally closely tied to human activity and urban areas (Wilson and Taylor 1967, McGlynn 1999). In Pacific island situations, some of these tramp ant species are able to thrive beyond areas of human activity. Relatively few ant species have been successful invaders of native communities on continents, and these include most of the species that pose the greatest problems for Pacific islands. They generally have multiple queens per colony, are unicolonial (lacking internest aggression), quickly recruit to food items, thrive in a variety of habitats including disturbed areas, and can be highly aggressive to other ant species (McGlynn 1999). Hawaii’s arthropod fauna evolved in the absence of ants and has been observed by many biologists to be highly vulnerable to displacement by non-native ants. Pacific island biotas have also very likely suffered greatly from displacement by ants. However, in contrast to Hawaii, virtually nothing has been published on effects of non-native ants on native arthropod fauna elsewhere on Pacific islands, with the exception of the Galapagos archipelago, which may have at least four species of endemic ants (Lubin 1984, Nishida and Evenhuis 2000) and New Caledonia (Jourdan et al. 2001, Le Breton et al. 2005). In addition, many ant species in the Pacific have long been a nuisance for humans, and significant agricultural impacts have occurred from ants tending hemipteran insects of crop plants.

Proceedings of the Hawaiian Entomological Society↗

Evaluating the impacts of wildland fires on caribou in interior Alaska

Caribou are found throughout the boreal forests of interior Alaska, a region subject to chronic and expansive wildland fires. Fruticose lichens, if available, constitute the majority of the winter diet of caribou throughout their range and are common in mature boreal forests but largely absent from early successional stages. Fire, the dominant ecological driving force, increases vegetative diversity and productivity across the landscape but may reduce the availability of caribou winter forage for decades. Increasingly, wildland fire regimes are influenced by humans seeking to reduce fire hazards or mitigate the effects of years of fire suppression. Consequently, biologists have debated the importance of forage lichens to the dynamics of caribou populations, and land managers have questioned the importance of fire regime to wintering caribou. To better understand the impacts of wildland fire on caribou, we are simultaneously investigating the relationships between fire history, caribou movements, forage lichen availability, and caribou nutritional performance on their winter range.

Alaska↗

Mammal inventories for eight National Parks in the Southern Colorado Plateau Network

Historically, the Colorado Plateau has been the subject of many geological and biological explorations. J. W. Powell explored and mapped the canyon country of the Colorado River in 1869 (Powell 1961). C. H. Merriam, V. Bailey, M. Cary, and other employees of the Bureau of Biological Survey conducted biological explorations of the area in the late 1800s. In recent times, researchers such as S. D. Durrant (1952), Durrant and Robinson (1962), D. M. Armstrong (1972), J. S. Findley et al. (1975), D. F. Hoff meister (1986), and J. Fitzgerald et al. (1994) have made considerable contributions to our understanding of the fauna of the Colorado Plateau. Despite earlier efforts, biological details on many regions of the plateau have remained insufficiently explored. In an effort to gather valuable biological information, the National Park Service (NPS) initiated a nationwide program to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates on NPS lands (Stuart 2000). The U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Arid Lands Field Station became a cooperator on this effort in 2001, when we began mammalian inventories on five parks within the NPS Southern Colorado Plateau Network (SCPN): Aztec Ruins National Monument (AZRU), El Morro National Monument (ELMO), Petroglyph National Monument (PETR), Salinas Pueblo Missions National Monument (SAPU), and Yucca House National Monument (YUHO). Existing baseline data on mammalian occurrences in these parks varied from very sparse to moderate, with little information available for most parks. In most cases, information was insufficient to assess the status of species of local concern. A final report on inventory efforts on these five parks was submitted in February 2004 (Bogan et al. 2004). In 2003, biologists from the Arid Lands Field Station began work on three additional parks in the SCPN: Bandelier National Monument (BAND), Chaco Culture National Historical Park (CHCU), and El Malpaís National Monument (ELMA). The primary emphasis at these three parks was on nonvolant mammals, as personnel from the Field Station had worked earlier on bats at all three parks (Bogan et al. 1998, Valdez et al. 2002a, 2002b). A final report on inventories at these three parks was submitted in April 2005. This publication details fieldwork conducted in all eight parks from 2001–2004. The information that appears here was originally contained in two separate reports that have been combined in order to make it easier for readers to find information on SCPN mammal inventories. To remain faithful to the original reports, and because of slightly differing objectives, personnel, and emphases at the two sets of parks, we have generally presented the methods, results, and recommendations separately for the 5-park and 3-park inventories.

Natural Resource Technical Report↗

Does predator management enhance survival of reintroduced black-footed ferrets?

Predation on black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) is a potential problem at reintroduction sites, causing up to 95 percent of the documented mortality of ferrets. Strategies to reduce mortality due to predation can focus on preconditioning ferrets prior to reintroduction and/or managing predators of ferrets. Biologists have tried three general strategies to control predators at reintroduction sites: (1) selective removal of individual predators, (2) nonselective removal of coyotes (Canis latrans), and (3) electric fences to exclude coyotes from release sites. We conducted a post hoc review of data from releases during 1994–2003 at 11 sites in South Dakota and Montana to address whether or not predator management has benefited reintroduced black-footed ferrets. Limited evidence indicates that (1) individual great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) can cause significant ferret mortality and that identifying and removing these individuals can be beneficial, (2) lethal control of coyotes may have inverse effects on ferret survival, and (3) electric fencing does not enhance short- or long-term survival of reintroduced ferrets. The data are confounded by a variety of factors, making conclusions tenuous. Well designed studies are needed to properly address the effectiveness of predator management for enhancing ferret survival.

Conference Paper↗

Angler satisfaction in South Dakota

Many industries use satisfaction measures to evaluate performance. The South Dakota Department of Game, Fish and Parks identified satisfaction as one of their performance measures for evaluating fishing in South Dakota. In fisheries management, the perspectives’ of license buyers are valuable to determine if management activities are providing the benefits anticipated by biologists. Surveys of South Dakota anglers are conducted to better understand licensees in order to promote satisfying angling experiences. Internet surveys were distributed to all license buyers providing email addresses in 2011 and 2012. Angler satisfaction was analyzed by angler type (demographics and fishing characteristics) to further clarify performance measures. Most anglers (> 70%) were satisfied with their angling experiences. Nonresidents expressed higher levels of satisfaction with fishing in South Dakota in 2011 and 2012 than residents. Anglers’ rating of fishing quality was more strongly correlated with satisfaction than their reported number of fish harvested, which suggests that strategies to influence angler perceptions and expectations can also be employed to influence satisfaction (in addition to techniques influencing fish populations). This research further integrates sociological data into South Dakota fisheries management processes.

South Dakota↗

Concordance of seabird population parameters: Analytical methods and interpretation

In an ecological context, concordance may be defined as the tendency for paired values of some parameter, such as the annual productivity of bird species, to show similar directions and magnitudes of deviation from the mean. Where concordance among populations is high, there is an implied similarity of the ecological factors affecting performance. Conversely, if populations behave discordantly, dissimilarity of underlying ecological factors is likely. In evaluating birds as indicators of the marine environment, the biologist typically is confronted with a three-dimensional array of observations (species, areas, and years) in which there are more missing values than filled cells. This frustrates attempts to analyze concordance using existing methods (e.g., Kendall's coefficient, or correlation combined with cluster analysis), which are either impossible to apply to incomplete data sets or potentially misleading when applied to incomplete data sets. I suggest an alternative method for analyzing concordance that makes maximal use of available data. For a given data set partitioned into the smallest units containing information about concordance, one computes an index of concordance using a regression approach and tests for significance using randomization methods. This procedure would seem to have wide application to ecological studies generally and to seabird monitoring in particular.

Conference Paper↗

Boreal partners in flight: Working together to build a regional research and monitoring program

Boreal regions of western North America regularly support breeding populations of 130 species of landbirds, including 68 Nearctic-Neotropical migrants. Primary conservation concerns within the region include increased timber harvesting, insect outbreaks, fire suppression, mining, impacts of military training activities, urbanization, and recreational activities. Under auspices of Partners in Flight, biologists, land and resource managers, and conservationists from Alaska and western Canada have combined efforts to develop a regional research and monitoring program for landbirds. An experimental monitoring program has been under way during the past four years to test the relative statistical power and cost-effectiveness of various monitoring methods in Alaska. Joint efforts currently include the Alaska Checklist Project on National Wildlife Refuges, 75 Breeding Bird Surveys along the road system, 122 Off-road Point Count routes, 27 Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship banding sites, and 8 migration banding stations. The ultimate goal is to design a comprehensive monitoring program that is sensitive to changes in population size, survival rates, and productivity, but robust enough to accommodate logistical constraints that arise when working in vast, roadless areas with limited funds and staff. Primary challenges that must be faced to assure the long-term future of such a program are obtaining long-term commitment from resource agencies in the region, integrating this program with other national and regional programs that address those species and habitats that are inadequately monitored by established techniques, and developing cooperative research, monitoring, and management programs at the landscape level.

Alaska↗

Fishes of Missouri River, chute, and flood plain habitats: Chapter 4 in Initial biotic survey of Lisbon Bottom, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge

The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) is approximately 2,200 acres and is the first complete unit of the Refuge. Primary objectives of the Refuge are to create and restore diverse riverine aquatic habitats and reconnect the Missouri River to its flood plain where feasible. Management seeks to accomplish these objectives by encouraging natural processes of erosion, deposition, and succession to the greatest extent possible. One of the most salient aquatic features of the Lisbon Bottom Unit is a newly created 2-mile-long free-flowing chute, or side channel (Fig. 1). This chute began forming as a levee breech scour hole during the Great Flood of 1993. The chute continued to develop during the 1995 flood and finally cut through to a flowing side channel during the 1996 flood. Extensive erosion and bank sluffing continued during 1997 due to sustained high flows that occurred throughout most of the year. The chute has progressively become wider and deeper with a developing meander pattern and channel bars have begun to form. Lisbon Bottom also contains several seasonal and permanent wetlands and is subject to periodic flooding at high Missouri River stages. Eight studies have been completed or are ongoing to evaluate Missouri River fishes associated with various habitat components of Lisbon Bottom and adjacent Missouri River reaches (Table 1). Several are part of much larger investigations to evaluate fish use of flood-created habitat features, basinwide fish assessment, and endangered or candidate species concerns. At the Lisbon Bottom Unit or in the Missouri River adjacent to the unit 54 fish species were collected (Table 2). Eight of these species have either a protected status under State or Federal laws or biologists consider them to potentially qualify for protected status. The status of the following fish is listed in Table 2: pallid sturgeon x shovelnose sturgeon hybrid, paddlefish, northern pike, sturgeon chub, sicklefin chub, ghost shiner, western silvery minnow, plains minnow, and blue sucker. Equally important to note are fish species that were not collected. The flathead chub, currently listed as State endangered and proposed for Federal listing, were not collected in any of the studies. Common fish species, collected in all seven sampling studies, included gizzard shad, common carp, river carpsucker, and freshwater drum. Paddlefish, skipjack herring, silver carp, white sucker, redfin shiner, western silvery minnow, bullhead minnow, and black bullhead were each collected in only one of the seven studies. Pflieger (1971) developed a guild system for the fishes of Missouri based on distribution patterns and centers of abundance. Fish were assigned to one of four primary faunal groups: Ozark, Big River, Lowland, and Prairie. Two secondary groups (Ozark-prairie and Ozark-lowland) were defined for species equally abundant and distributed in two of the primary areas. Two Ozark-prairie species, shorthead redhorse and white sucker, were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Big River species are found primarily in the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. The environmental factors controlling fish distribution in these rivers appear to be substrate, current velocity, and turbidity. On or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit 18 Big River species were collected (Table 2). Lowland species are intolerant of siltation and high turbidity. They inhabit standing or slow-moving water with sand, fine gravel, and organic debris substrates. Two Lowland species, bullhead minnow and mosquitofish, were collected in connected scours on the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Prairie species have broader ecological tolerances than the Ozark and Lowland species. They are largely absent in high gradient streams and cool, clear waters. Prairie species make up a significant proportion of Missouri and Mississippi River fishes. Seven Prairie species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). The last group, Wide-ranging, was defined as the species more widespread than the other faunal groups with broader environmental tolerances. Most Wide-ranging species occur at least occasionally in all sections of the state. Nineteen Wide-ranging species were collected on or near the Lisbon Bottom Unit (Table 2). Kubisiak (1997) found that isolated scours in the Lower Missouri River were dominated by Wide-ranging species. Connected scours also held Wideranging species but they contained Prairie species and were dominated by Big River species. Faunal group diversity and species richness were compared between isolated (Study l) and connected (Studies 4, 5, 7, and 8) scours of the Lisbon Bottom Unit. Species richness was similar with 22 species collected in isolated scours and an average of 24.8 species collected in connected scours. Isolated scour fish catches were dominated by Wide-ranging fish (59%) with 14% Big River fishes and 14% Prairie fishes. Connected scours had a larger percentage of Big River fish (32%) and fewer Wide-ranging (36%) and Prairie (13%) species than the isolated scours. In the combined studies, Wide-ranging fish dominated the connected scours. A similar comparison was made of fish from chute habitats and the Missouri River. Chute habitats include the Lisbon Bottom Chute, the chute between the right bank and island located at river mile 219, and a shallow channel running between a large sandbar complex and the channel border adjacent to Lisbon Bottom. Species richness in the chutes (35 species) was greater than that of the adjacent river (23 species). Big River species (40%) dominated the chute samples, followed by Wide-ranging at 31% Cand Prairie Cut 14%. The river samples contained equal numbers of Wide-ranging species (35%) and Big River species (35%) with 17% Prairie species. Differences in fish guild diversity and species richness may be due to numerous factors including sampling effort and sampling season. River samples were collected only in Study 3 in October; chute samples were collected in July, August, and October. Fish may have been using the chute in July and August to spawn, feed, or escape high river levels. The Lisbon Bottom Chute is a truly unique feature of the Lower Missouri River. It is the first naturally created side channel to develop since the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tamed the river. The Corps eliminated 89% of the islands in the Missouri River between 1879 and 1954 (Funk and Robinson 1974). The chutes between the islands and the shore were shallower with less current than the main channel. These areas provided diversity to the Missouri River fish habitat, serving as nursery and feeding areas. The Lisbon Bottom Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge will continue to be studied in an effort to understand the complex role these areas play in river systems.

Missouri↗

Data management challenges in species distribution modeling

An important component in the fields of ecology and conservation biology is understanding the environmental conditions and geographic areas that are suitable for a given species to inhabit. A common tool in determining such areas is species distribution modeling which uses computer algorithms to determine the spatial distribution of organisms. Most commonly the correlative relationships between the organism and environmental variables are the primary consideration. The data requirements for this type of modeling consist of known presence and possibly absence locations of the species as well as the values of environmental or climatic covariates thought to define the species habitat suitability at these locations. These covariate data are generally extracted from remotely sensed imagery, interpolated/gridded historical climate data, or downscaled climate model output. Traditionally, ecologists and biologists have constructed species distribution models using workflows and data that reside primarily on their local workstations or networks. This workflow is becoming challenging as scientists increasingly try to use these modeling techniques to inform management decisions under different climate change scenarios. This challenge stems from the fact that remote sensing products, gridded historical climate, and downscaled climate models are not only increasing in spatial and temporal resolution but proliferating as well. Any rigorous assessment of uncertainty requires a computationally intensive sensitivity analysis accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The scientists fitting these models generally do not have the background in computer science required to take advantage of recent advances in web-service based data acquisition, remote high-powered data processing, or scientific workflow systems. Ecologists in the field of modeling are in need of a tractable platform that abstracts the inherent computational complexity required to incorporate the burgeoning field of coupled climate and ecological response modeling. In this paper we describe the computational challenges in species distribution modeling and solutions using scientific workflow systems. We focus on the Software for Assisted Species Modeling (SAHM) a package within VisTrails, an open-source scientific workflow system.

Bulletin of the Technical Committee on Data Engine↗

Developing multi-model ensemble projections of ecologically relevant climate variables for Puerto Rico and the US Caribbean

The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation strategies in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). This project began by engaging the ecologists, hydrologists, and conservation biologists in the region to determine the most valuable types of information to aid research and decision making. The final product provides projections of future climate at a 2km horizontal resolution based on three global climate models and two regional climate models for a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions. Results from the projections suggest that for Puerto Rico, annual temperature would increase between 1°C and 1.3°C by mid-century with larger temperature increases located in the interior portion of the island. Precipitation totals decrease for much of the island with island average decline between 12% and 19%, with some potentially large localized decreases exceeding 30%. The projected changes for the USVI are dominated by the surrounding ocean environment. The resulting projections will be provided to stakeholders in the region via the USGS and the CLCC.

Puerto Rico↗