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Results for “The Journal of Environmental Management”

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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Multiphase, multicomponent parameter estimation for liquid and vapor fluxes in deep arid systems using hydrologic data and natural environmental tracers

Multiphase, multicomponent numerical models of long-term unsaturated-zone liquid and vapor movement were created for a thick alluvial basin at the Nevada Test Site to predict present-day liquid and vapor fluxes. The numerical models are based on recently developed conceptual models of unsaturated-zone moisture movement in thick alluvium that explain present-day water potential and tracer profiles in terms of major climate and vegetation transitions that have occurred during the past 10 000 yr or more. The numerical models were calibrated using borehole hydrologic and environmental tracer data available from a low-level radioactive waste management site located in a former nuclear weapons testing area. The environmental tracer data used in the model calibration includes tracers that migrate in both the liquid and vapor phases (δD, δ 18 O) and tracers that migrate solely as dissolved solutes (Cl), thus enabling the estimation of some gas-phase as well as liquid-phase transport parameters. Parameter uncertainties and correlations identified during model calibration were used to generate parameter combinations for a set of Monte Carlo simulations to more fully characterize the uncertainty in liquid and vapor fluxes. The calculated background liquid and vapor fluxes decrease as the estimated time since the transition to the present-day arid climate increases. However, on the whole, the estimated fluxes display relatively little variability because correlations among parameters tend to create parameter sets for which changes in some parameters offset the effects of others in the set. Independent estimates on the timing since the climate transition established from packrat midden data were essential for constraining the model calibration results. The study demonstrates the utility of environmental tracer data in developing numerical models of liquid- and gas-phase moisture movement and the importance of considering parameter correlations when using Monte Carlo analysis to characterize the uncertainty in moisture fluxes.

Vadose Zone Journal↗
USGS2018

Identifying and eliminating sources of recreational water quality degradation along an urban coast

Restoration of highly degraded urban coastal waters often requires large-scale, complex projects, but in the interim, smaller-scale efforts can provide immediate improvements to water quality conditions for visitor use. We examined short-term efforts to improve recreational water quality near the Grand Calumet River (GC) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Identified as an Area of Concern (AOC) by the International Joint Commission, the GC has experienced years of industrial and municipal waste discharges, and as a result, coastal beaches have some of the highest rates of beach closings (>70%) in the United States. Project objectives were to identify sources of microbial contamination and to evaluate a short-term management solution to decrease beach closings: during 2015 (partial) and 2016 (season-long), canines were used to deter gull presence. Water samples were analyzed for Escherichia coli in 2015 and 2016, and fecal sources were evaluated using microbial source tracking markers (2015): human ( Bacteroides HF183, Methanobrevibacter nifH ), gull (Gull2), and dog (DogBact). Hydrometeorological conditions were simultaneously measured. Results indicated that human, gull, and canine fecal sources were present, with gulls being the dominant source. Escherichia coli densities were highly correlated with number of gulls present, Gull2 marker, and turbidity. Gull deterrence decreased E. coli and Gull2 marker detection during 2015, but numbers rebounded after program completion. The full-season program in 2016 resulted in lower E. coli densities and fewer beach closings. Large-scale restoration efforts are underway at this location, but short-term, small-scale projects can be useful for reducing beach closings and restoring ecosystem services.

Indiana↗
USGS2014

Long-term effects of seeding after wildfire on vegetation in Great Basin shrubland ecosystems

1. Invasive annual grasses alter fire regimes in shrubland ecosystems of the western USA, threatening ecosystem function and fragmenting habitats necessary for shrub-obligate species such as greater sage-grouse. Post-fire stabilization and rehabilitation treatments have been administered to stabilize soils, reduce invasive species spread and restore or establish sustainable ecosystems in which native species are well represented. Long-term effectiveness of these treatments has rarely been evaluated. 2. We studied vegetation at 88 sites where aerial or drill seeding was implemented following fires between 1990 and 2003 in Great Basin (USA) shrublands. We examined sites on loamy soils that burned only once since 1970 to eliminate confounding effects of recurrent fire and to assess soils most conducive to establishment of seeded species. We evaluated whether seeding provided greater cover of perennial seeded species than burned–unseeded and unburned–unseeded sites, while also accounting for environmental variation. 3. Post-fire seeding of native perennial grasses generally did not increase cover relative to burned–unseeded areas. Native perennial grass cover did, however, increase after drill seeding when competitive non-natives were not included in mixes. Seeding non-native perennial grasses and the shrub Bassia prostrata resulted in more vegetative cover in aerial and drill seeding, with non-native perennial grass cover increasing with annual precipitation. Seeding native shrubs, particularly Artemisia tridentata , did not increase shrub cover or density in burned areas. Cover of undesirable, non-native annual grasses was lower in drill seeded relative to unseeded areas, but only at higher elevations. 4. Synthesis and applications. Management objectives are more likely to be met in high-elevation or precipitation locations where establishment of perennial grasses occurred. On lower and drier sites, management objectives are unlikely to be met with seeding alone. Intensive restoration methods such as invasive plant control and/or repeated sowings after establishment failures due to weather may be required in subsequent years. Managers might consider using native-only seed mixtures when establishment of native perennial grasses is the goal. Post-fire rehabilitation provides a land treatment example where long-term monitoring can inform adaptive management decisions to meet future objectives, particularly in arid landscapes where recovery is slow.

Great Basin↗
USGS2026

Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed

Study region The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks. Study focus This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios. New hydrological insights for the region The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.

California↗
USGS2018

Great Lakes coastal fish habitat classification and assessment

Basin-scale assessment of fish habitat in Great Lakes coastal ecosystems would increase our ability to prioritize fish habitat management and restoration actions. As a first step in this direction, we identified key habitat factors associated with highest probability of occurrence for several societally and ecologically important coastal fish species as well as community metrics, using data from the Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework (GLAHF), Great Lakes Environmental Indicators (GLEI) and Coastal Wetland Monitoring Program (CWMP). Secondly, we assessed whether species-specific habitat was threatened by watershed-level anthropogenic stressors. In the southern Great Lakes, key habitat factors for determining presence/absence of several species of coastal fish were chlorophyll concentrations, turbidity, and wave height, whereas in the northern ecoprovince temperature was the major habitat driver for most of the species modeled. Habitat factors best explaining fish richness and diversity were bottom slope and chlorophyll a . These models could likely be further improved with addition of high-resolution submerged macrophytecomplexity data which are currently unavailable at the basin-wide scale. Proportion of invasive species was correlated primarily with increasing maximum observed inorganic turbidity and chlorophyll a . We also demonstrate that preferred habitat for several coastal species and high-diversity areas overlap with areas of high watershed stress. Great Lakes coastal wetland fish are a large contributor to ecosystem services as well as commercial and recreational fishery harvest, and scalable basin-wide habitat models developed in this study may be useful for informing management actions targeting specific species or overall coastal fish biodiversity.

Great Lakes↗
USGS1993

Environmental contaminants in bald eagles in the Columbia River Estuary

Eggs, blood, and carcasses of bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and fish were collected and breeding success of eagles was monitored in the Columbia River estuary, 1980-87, to determine if contaminants were having an effect on productivity. High levels of dichloro diphenyl dichloroethylene (DDE), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB's), and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) were found in eggs, blood from adults, and 2 eagle carcasses. Detectable levels of DDE and PCB's were found in blood of nestlings indicating they were exposed to these contaminants early in life. Increasing concentrations of DDE and PCB's with age also indicated accumulation of these contaminants. Adult eagles also had higher levels of mercury (Hg) in blood than subadults or young indicating accumulation with age. The high levels of DDE and PCB's were associated with eggshell thinning (x̄ = 10%) and with productivity (x̄ = 0.56 young/occupied site) that was lower than that of healthy populations (i.e., ≥1.00 young/occupied site). DDE and PCB's had a deleterious effect on reproduction of bald eagles in the estuary. The role dioxins play in eagle reproduction remains unclear, but concentrations in eagle eggs were similar to those in laboratory studies on other species where dioxins adversely affected hatchability of eggs. Probable sources of these contaminants include dredged river sediments and hydroelectric dams, and the proper management of each may reduce the amount of contaminants released into the Columbia River estuary.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2017

Seasonal trends in eDNA detection and occupancy of bigheaded carps

Bigheaded carps, which include silver and bighead carp, are threatening to invade the Great Lakes. These species vary seasonally in distribution and abundance due to environmental conditions such as precipitation and temperature. Monitoring this seasonal movement is important for management to control the population size and spread of the species. We examined if environmental DNA (eDNA) approaches could detect seasonal changes of these species. To do this, we developed a novel genetic marker that was able to both detect and differentiate bighead and silver carp DNA. We used the marker, combined with a novel occupancy model, to study the occurrence of bigheaded carps at 3 sites on the Wabash River over the course of a year. We studied the Wabash River because of concerns that carps may be able to use the system to invade the Great Lakes via a now closed (ca. 2017) connection at Eagle Marsh between the Wabash River's watershed and the Great Lakes' watershed. We found seasonal trends in the probability of detection and occupancy that varied across sites. These findings demonstrate that eDNA methods can detect seasonal changes in bigheaded carps densities and suggest that the amount of eDNA present changes seasonally. The site that was farthest upstream and had the lowest carp densities exhibited the strongest seasonal trends for both detection probabilities and sample occupancy probabilities. Furthermore, other observations suggest that carps seasonally leave this site, and we were able to detect this with our eDNA approach.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2007

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

Current management of the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Wyoming↗
USGS1999

International river basins of the world

It is becoming acknowledged that water is likely to be the most pressing environmental concern of the next century. Difficulties in river basin management are only exacerbated when the resource crosses international boundaries. One critical aid in the assessment of international waters has been the Register of International Rivers a compendium which listed 214 international waterways that cover 47% of the earth's continental land surface. The Register, though, was last updated in 1978 by the now defunct United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The purpose of this paper is to update the Register in order to reflect the quantum changes that have taken place over the last 22 years, both in global geopolitics and in map coverage and technology. By accessing digital elevation models at spatial resolutions of 30 arc seconds, corroborating at a unified global map coverage of at least 1:1 000 000, and superimposing the results over complete coverage of current political boundaries, we are able to provide a new register which lists 261 international rivers, covering 45.3% of the land surface of the earth (excluding Antarctica). This paper lists all international rivers with their watershed areas, the nations which share each watershed,their respective territorial percentages, and notes on changes in or disputes over international boundaries since 1978.

International Journal of Water Resources Developme↗
USGS2008

Evidence for fish dispersal from spatial analysis of stream network topology

Developing spatially explicit conservation strategies for stream fishes requires an understanding of the spatial structure of dispersal within stream networks. We explored spatial patterns of stream fish dispersal by evaluating how the size and proximity of connected streams (i.e., stream network topology) explained variation in fish assemblage structure and how this relationship varied with local stream size. We used data from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program in wadeable streams of the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region (n = 308 sites). We quantified stream network topology with a continuous analysis based on the rate of downstream flow accumulation from sites and with a discrete analysis based on the presence of mainstem river confluences (i.e., basin area >250 km2) within 20 fluvial km (fkm) from sites. Continuous variation in stream network topology was related to local species richness within a distance of ???10 fkm, suggesting an influence of fish dispersal within this spatial grain. This effect was explained largely by catostomid species, cyprinid species, and riverine species, but was not explained by zoogeographic regions, ecoregions, sampling period, or spatial autocorrelation. Sites near mainstem river confluences supported greater species richness and abundance of catostomid, cyprinid, and ictalurid fishes than did sites >20 fkm from such confluences. Assemblages at sites on the smallest streams were not related to stream network topology, consistent with the hypothesis that local stream size regulates the influence of regional dispersal. These results demonstrate that the size and proximity of connected streams influence the spatial distribution of fish and suggest that these influences can be incorporated into the designs of stream bioassessments and reserves to enhance management efficacy. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2018

Development of a species status assessment process for decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

Decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) require scientific input on the risk that the species will become extinct. A series of critiques on the role of science in ESA decisions have called for improved consistency and transparency in species risk assessments and clear distinctions between science input and policy application. To address the critiques and document the emerging practice of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), we outline an assessment process based on principles and practices of risk and decision analyses that results in a scientific report on species status. The species status assessment (SSA) process has three successive stages: 1) document the life history and ecological relationships of the species in question to provide the foundation for the assessment, 2) describe and hypothesize causes for the current condition of the species, and 3) forecast the species' future condition. The future condition refers to the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild under plausible future scenarios. The scenarios help explore the species' response to future environmental stressors and to assess the potential for conservation to intervene to improve its status. The SSA process incorporates modeling and scenario planning for prediction of extinction risk and applies the conservation biology principles of representation, resiliency, and redundancy to evaluate the current and future condition. The SSA results in a scientific report distinct from policy application, which contributes to streamlined, transparent, and consistent decision-making and allows for greater technical participation by experts outside of the USFWS, for example, by state natural resource agencies. We present two case studies based on assessments of the eastern massasauga rattlesnake Sistrurus catenatus and the Sonoran Desert tortoise Gopherus morafkai to illustrate the process. The SSA builds upon the past threat-focused assessment by including systematic and explicit analyses of a species' future response to stressors and conservation, and as a result, we believe it provides an improved scientific analysis for ESA decisions.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗
USGS2025

Identifying strategies to manage boreal forests: Simulating moose and timber management scenarios at a landscape scale in the face of changing environmental conditions

There are ongoing debates among different stakeholders about which forest and ungulate management strategies will sustain high levels of timber and animal harvest and maintain important ecosystem functions under climate change. Ungulate-forest interactions are complex, including periods where forest regeneration is sensitive to browsing pressure, making it difficult to predict the consequences of a given strategy over time. To aid decision-making, we simulated the impacts of moose browsing on forest succession under 18 different combinations of moose ( Alces alces ) harvest rate levels and forest management scenarios in a boreal forest landscape in southern Sweden given projected changes in forest growth due to climate change. We found that the current management practices are important for sustaining a moose-forest system. Increasing moose harvest rates led to slightly smaller moose populations, larger estimates of landscape carrying capacity, and less biomass removal of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), a commercially valuable species. However, minor changes in the moose harvest were hardly affecting timber production. Increasing the timber harvest rotation time led to the highest estimates of Scots pine biomass, while thinning younger cohorts lead to the highest estimates of Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) biomass. These changes came without much effect to moose population dynamics. However, the increased broadleaf production scenario had a very large positive effect on total aboveground live biomass of deciduous species and on landscape carrying capacity and moose density. This scenario subsequently resulted in the greatest estimates of biomass removal of Scots pine, highlighting the tradeoffs associated with increased moose production.

European Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2014

Insights for empirically modeling evapotranspiration influenced by riparian and upland vegetation in semiarid regions

Water resource managers aim to ensure long-term water supplies for increasing human populations. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance and accurate estimates are important to quantify safe allocations to humans while supporting environmental needs. Scaling up ET measurements from small spatial scales has been problematic due to spatiotemporal variability. Remote sensing products provide spatially distributed data that account for seasonal climate and vegetation variability. We used MODIS products [i.e., Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and nighttime land surface temperatures (LST n )] to create empirical ET models calibrated using measured ET from three riparian-influenced and two upland, water-limited flux tower sites. Results showed that combining all sites introduced systematic bias, so we developed separate models to estimate riparian and upland ET. While EVI and LST n were the main drivers for ET in riparian sites, precipitation replaced LST n as the secondary driver of ET in upland sites. Riparian ET was successfully modeled using an inverse exponential approach (r 2 = 0.92) while upland ET was adequately modeled using a multiple linear regression approach (r 2 = 0.77). These models can be used in combination to estimate ET at basin scales provided each region is classified and precipitation data is available.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Fish community responses to submerged aquatic vegetation in Maumee Bay, Western Lake Erie

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in clearwater systems simultaneously provides habitat for invertebrate prey and acts as refugia for small fishes. Many fishes in Lake Erie rely on shallow, heavily vegetated bays as spawning grounds and the loss or absence of which is known to reduce recruitment in other systems. The Maumee River and Maumee Bay, which once had abundant macrophyte beds, have experienced a decline of SAV and an increase in suspended solids (turbidity) over the last century due to numerous causes. To compare fish communities in open‐water (turbid) and in SAV (clearer water) habitats in this region, which is designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as an Area of Concern, and to indicate community changes that could occur with expansion of SAV habitat, we sampled a 300‐ha sector of northern Maumee Bay that contained both habitats. Using towed neuston nets through patches of each habitat, we determined that areas of SAV contained more species and a different species complex (based on the Jaccard index and the wetland fish index), than did the open‐water habitat (averaging 8.6 versus 5 species per net trawl). The SAV habitat was dominated by centrarchids, namely Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides, Bluegill Lepomis macrochirus, and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus. Open‐water habitat was dominated by Spottail Shiner Notropis hudsonius, Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum, and White Perch Morone americana, an invasive species. These results indicate that restoration efforts aimed at decreasing turbidity and increasing the distribution of SAV could cause substantive shifts in the fish community and address important metrics for assessing the beneficial use impairments in this Area of Concern.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2021

Warmer winters increase the biomass of phytoplankton in a large floodplain river

Winters are changing rapidly across the globe but the implications for aquatic productivity and food webs are not well understood. In addition, the degree to which winter dynamics in aquatic systems respond to large-scale climate versus ecosystem-level factors is unclear but important for understanding and managing potential changes. We used a unique winter data set from the Upper Mississippi River System to explore spatial and temporal patterns in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a , CHL) and associated environmental covariates across 25 years and ∼1,500 river km. To assess the role of regional climate versus site-specific drivers of winter CHL, we evaluated whether there were coherent long-term CHL dynamics from north to south and across lotic-lentic areas. We then estimated the degree to which these patterns were associated with climate variability (i.e., the Multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation Index), winter severity (freezing degree days), river discharge, or site-specific environmental variables (ice depth, snow depth, and nutrient concentrations). We found that winter CHL was typically highest in ice-free reaches and backwater lakes, occasionally exceeding summer values. We did not find highly synchronous CHL dynamics across the basin, but instead show that temporal trends were independent among river reaches and lotic-lentic areas of the river. Moreover, after accounting for these spatial dynamics, we found that CHL was most responsive to winter air temperature, being consistently higher in years with warmer winters across the basin. These results indicate that although productivity dynamics are highly dynamic within large river ecosystems, changes in the duration and severity of winter may uniformly increase wintertime productivity.

Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin↗
USGS2020

A hybrid approach for predictive soil property mapping using conventional soil survey data

Soil property maps are important for land management and earth systems modeling. A new hybrid point-disaggregation predictive soil property mapping strategy improved mapping in the Colorado River Basin, and can be applied to other areas with similar data (e.g. conterminous United States). This new approach increased sample size ~6-fold over past efforts. Random forests related environmental raster layers representing soil forming factors to samples to predict 15 soil properties (pH, texture fractions, rock, electrical conductivity, gypsum, CaCO3, sodium adsorption ratio, available water capacity, bulk density, erodibility, organic matter) at 7 depths, depth to restrictive layer, and surface rock size and cover. Cross-validations resulted in coefficient of determinations averaging 0.52, with a range of 0.20 to 0.76; and mean absolute errors ranged from 3% to 98% of training data averages with a mean of 41%. Uncertainty estimates were also developed by creating relative prediction intervals (RPIs) for the entire study area, which allow end users to evaluate uncertainty relative to original data distributions. Average error increased with higher RPI values (higher uncertainty), and areas with the highest RPI are consistently under-sampled, suggesting that additional sampling in these areas may improve prediction accuracy. Greater uncertainty was also observed in areas with shale parent materials and physiographic settings uncommon relative to the broader study area.

New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, Arizo↗
USGS2021

Consequences of changing water clarity on the fish and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes

Human-driven environmental change underlies recent changes in water clarity in many of the world’s great lakes, yet our understanding of the consequences of these changes on the fish and fisheries they support remains incomplete. Herein, we offer a framework to organize current knowledge, guide future research, and help fisheries managers understand how water clarity can affect their valued populations. Emphasizing Laurentian Great Lakes findings where possible, we describe how changing water clarity can directly affect fish populations and communities by altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation, foraging success, predation risk, reproductive behavior, or territoriality. We also discuss how changing water clarity can affect fisheries harvest and assessment through effects on fisher behavior and sampling efficiency (i.e., catchability). Finally, we discuss whether changing water clarity can affect understudied aspects of fishery performance, including economic and community benefits. We conclude by identifying generalized predictions and discuss their implications for priority research questions for the Laurentian Great Lakes. Even though the motivation for this work was regional, the breadth of the review and generality of the framework are readily transferable to other freshwater and marine habitats.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2007

Tag return models allowing for harvest and catch and release: Evidence of environmental and management impacts on striped bass fishing and natural mortality rates

Catch-and-release fisheries have become very important in the management of overexploited recreational fish stocks. Tag return studies, where the tag is removed regardless of fish disposition, have been used to assess the effectiveness of restoration efforts for these fisheries. We extend the instantaneous rate formulation of tag return models to allow for catch and release as well as harvest. The key point of our methods is that, given an estimate of the tag reporting rate, the fishing mortality rate (F) is separated into two components: the mortality on harvested fish and the "mortality" on tags (because the lags are removed) of fish released alive. The total fishing mortality rate for untagged fish is the sum of the Fs due to harvest and hooking mortality suffered by fish released alive. Natural mortality rates can also be estimated. Both age-independent models and age-dependent models are constructed, and the age-dependent models are illustrated by application to data from a study of striped bass Morone saxatilis in Chesapeake Bay from 1991 to 2003 by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. By fitting models of the natural mortality rate with limited age and year dependence, we demonstrate an overall decrease in natural mortality rates as fish age and provide evidence of an increase in natural mortality beginning in the late 1990s, when an outbreak of the disease mycobacteriosis is thought to have begun. Our results indicate that fishing mortality is age dependent; selectivity increases up to age 6, when fish appear to be fully recruited to the fishery. There is also evidence of an increase in fishing mortality since 1995, when regulations were relaxed. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗