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Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO 2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Phenologically-tuned MODIS NDVI-based production anomaly estimates for Zimbabwe

For thirty years, simple crop water balance models have been used by the early warning community to monitor agricultural drought. These models estimate and accumulate actual crop evapotranspiration, evaluating environmental conditions based on crop water requirements. Unlike seasonal rainfall totals, these models take into account the phenology of the crop, emphasizing conditions during the peak grain filling phase of crop growth. In this paper we describe an analogous metric of crop performance based on time series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery. A special temporal filter is used to screen for cloud contamination. Regional NDVI time series are then composited for cultivated areas, and adjusted temporally according to the timing of the rainy season. This adjustment standardizes the NDVI response vis-??-vis the expected phenological response of maize. A national time series index is then created by taking the cropped-area weighted average of the regional series. This national time series provides an effective summary of vegetation response in agricultural areas, and allows for the identification of NDVI green-up during grain filling. Onset-adjusted NDVI values following the grain filling period are well correlated with U.S. Department of Agriculture production figures, possess desirable linear characteristics, and perform better than more common indices such as maximum seasonal NDVI or seasonally averaged NDVI. Thus, just as appropriately calibrated crop water balance models can provide more information than seasonal rainfall totals, the appropriate agro-phenological filtering of NDVI can improve the utility and accuracy of space-based agricultural monitoring.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Statistical sirens: The allure of nonparametrics

Although nonparametric statistical methods have a role to play in the analysis of data, often their virtues are overstated and their deficiencies overlooked. A recent Special Feature in Ecology advocated nonparametric methods because of an erroneously stated advantage that they require no assumptions regarding the distribution underlying the observations. The present paper points out some often—ignored feature of nonparametric tests comparing two means, and advocates parameter estimation as a preferred alternative to hypothesis testing in many situations.

Ecology↗

The Geology and Petrography of Crater Lake National Park

Twenty years ago Crater Lake was unknown to the general public, but since then a knowledge of its remarkable features has been spread abroad through the press, and Congress recognized its worth as an educational feature and made it a national park by the act approved May 22, 1902. As defined in the bill, the park is 'bounded north by the parallel forty-three degrees four minutes north latitude, south by forty-two degrees forty-eight minutes north latitude, east by the meridian one hundred and twenty-two degrees west longitude, and west by the meridian one hundred and twenty-two degrees sixteen minutes west longitude, having an area of two hundred and forty-nine square miles'. The Ashland sheet of United States Geological Survey, on the scale of 4 miles to 1 inch, includes the area lying between meridians 122 deg and 123 deg and parallels 42 deg and 43 deg. This map includes the region between Ashland and Crater Lake. On account of the great scientific interest of Crater Lake a special map, known as the Crater Lake special sheet, was prepared on the scale of 1 mile to an inch, including the country immediately adjacent to Crater Lake, between meridians 122 deg and 122 deg 15' and parallels 42 deg 50' and 43 deg 4'. From these two maps the accompanying map of the Crater Lake National Park (Pl. 1) has been prepared. The two papers published here refer practically to the whole region included in the National Park. The one, Part I, treats primarily of the geology, the development of the great volcano, Mount Mazama, and its collapse, which gave birth to Crater Lake; the other, Part II, deals with the petrography, and gives a special description of the various rocks occurring in the park. Origin of the name Mount Mazama - A great impetus to the spread of information concerning Crater Lake was given by the Mazamas of Portland, Oreg., who held a meeting at the lake in August, 1896, which attracted many visitors. The principal features in the history of the lake had previously been made out, and the Mazamas, recognizing the fact that the great peak which was nearly destroyed in preparing the pit for the lake had no name, gave it the name of their own society. Upon the rim of the lake are a number of small peaks, each having its own designation. The term Mount Mazama refers to the whole rim encircling the lake. It is but a mere remnant of the once lofty peak, the real Mount Mazama, which rose far into the region of eternal snow. To get a basis for reconstructing the original Mount Mazama it is necessary to study in detail the structure and composition of its foundation, now so attractively displayed in the encircling cliffs of Crater Lake.

Oregon↗

A theory for modeling ground-water flow in heterogeneous media

Construction of a ground-water model for a field area is not a straightforward process. Data are virtually never complete or detailed enough to allow substitution into the model equations and direct computation of the results of interest. Formal model calibration through optimization, statistical, and geostatistical methods is being applied to an increasing extent to deal with this problem and provide for quantitative evaluation and uncertainty analysis of the model. However, these approaches are hampered by two pervasive problems: 1) nonlinearity of the solution of the model equations with respect to some of the model (or hydrogeologic) input variables (termed in this report system characteristics) and 2) detailed and generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of some of the system characteristics such as log hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, recharge and discharge, and boundary conditions. A theory is developed in this report to address these problems. The theory allows construction and analysis of a ground-water model of flow (and, by extension, transport) in heterogeneous media using a small number of lumped or smoothed system characteristics (termed parameters). The theory fully addresses both nonlinearity and heterogeneity in such a way that the parameters are not assumed to be effective values. The ground-water flow system is assumed to be adequately characterized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed discrete values, ?, of the system characteristics. This set contains both small-scale variability that cannot be described in a model and large-scale variability that can. The spatial and temporal variability in ? are accounted for by imagining ? to be generated by a stochastic process wherein ? is normally distributed, although normality is not essential. Because ? has too large a dimension to be estimated using the data normally available, for modeling purposes ? is replaced by a smoothed or lumped approximation y?. (where y is a spatial and temporal interpolation matrix). Set y?. has the same form as the expected value of ?, y 'line' ? , where 'line' ? is the set of drift parameters of the stochastic process; ?. is a best-fit vector to ?. A model function f(?), such as a computed hydraulic head or flux, is assumed to accurately represent an actual field quantity, but the same function written using y?., f(y?.), contains error from lumping or smoothing of ? using y?.. Thus, the replacement of ? by y?. yields nonzero mean model errors of the form E(f(?)-f(y?.)) throughout the model and covariances between model errors at points throughout the model. These nonzero means and covariances are evaluated through third and fifth-order accuracy, respectively, using Taylor series expansions. They can have a significant effect on construction and interpretation of a model that is calibrated by estimating ?.. Vector ?.. is estimated as 'hat' ? using weighted nonlinear least squares techniques to fit a set of model functions f(y'hat' ?) to a. corresponding set of observations of f(?), Y. These observations are assumed to be corrupted by zero-mean, normally distributed observation errors, although, as for ?, normality is not essential. An analytical approximation of the nonlinear least squares solution is obtained using Taylor series expansions and perturbation techniques that assume model and observation errors to be small. This solution is used to evaluate biases and other results to second-order accuracy in the errors. The correct weight matrix to use in the analysis is shown to be the inverse of the second-moment matrix E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', but the weight matrix is assumed to be arbitrary in most developments. The best diagonal approximation is the inverse of the matrix of diagonal elements of E(Y-f(y?.))(Y-f(y?.))', and a method of estimating this diagonal matrix when it is unknown is developed using a special objective function to compute 'hat' ?. When considered to be an estimate of f

Professional Paper↗

Contributions to the stratigraphy of southwestern Colorado

In the course of field work of the United States Geological Survey in the San Juan region of Colorado observations have been made in the last three seasons that considerably extend our knowledge of the great stratigraphic break below the La Plata sandstone, which is currently assumed to be of Jurassic age. The new data pertain partly to the relations existing in the Gunnison Valley, north of the San Juan Mountains, where the unconformity marking this break was already known at certain places, and partly to the conditions in the Piedra Valley, on the south side of the mountains, where the unconformity had not before been noted. The Piedra Valley is of special interest, and it seems well to call attention to the relations observed even though they were examined only in a reconnaissance. The first part of this paper is devoted to the evidence of the overlap of the La Plata sandstone; the second to the stratigraphic relations in the Piedra Valley. The section of sedimentary formations in Piedra Canyon is of much interest because none of the pre-La Plata formations are known east of this locality on the south side of the San Juan Mountains. Most of these formations exhibit a notably different facies where they reappear from beneath the overlying beds at their nearest exposures in New Mexico, southeast of the Piedra Valley. It is believed that the character of the formations in the Piedra section should be recorded for the benefit of geologists who may be studying the Paleozoic and Mesozoic rocks of New Mexico, and accordingly the second part of the paper presents details of the structure and the stratigraphic section of Piedra Valley.

Colorado↗

Geology and ground-water resources of Galveston County, Texas

Galveston County, on the Texas gulf coast, is underlain by alternating beds of sand and clay. These sand and clay strata crop out in belts that roughly parallel the coastline and dip gently southeastward at an angle gre? +,er than the slope of the land, thereby creating artesian aquifers. The formations that yield potable water to wells are the Lissie formation, the "Alta Loma" sand and other sands of the Beaumont clay, and beach and dune sands of Recent aie. Most of the potable water is obtained on the mainland of Galveston County. The water from most wells on Galveston Island is highly mineralized. Before 1948, water for all public use and nearly all industrial use was derived from wells. Most ground water now used in the county is pumped from areas around Alta Loma and Texas City. The average daily pumpage in these areas increased from 6 million gallons in 1938 to 17.8 million gallons in 1940 and reached a peak of about 34 million gallons in 1945. Between 1945 and 1948 the rate of pumpage was nearly constant, but in 1948 surface water was diverted from the Brazos River to supply some of the Texas City industries and, as a result, the use of ground water was reduced about 30 percent. Water levels declined in county wells as the pumpage increased during the years prior to 1948. Since water from the Brazos River has been utilized the levels have risen in many wells and tended to become constant in others. Subsidence of the land in a large part of the county, particularly in the Texas City area, is attributed to the excessive withdrawal of ground water. Salt-water encroachment has been a problem in the county for many years. Salt water was present in the lower part of the "Alta Loma" sand in the Alta Loma and Texas City areas and throughout that sand on Galveston Island when the first wells were drilled. Encroachment from either below or downdip took place with the lowering of artesian pressure in the aquifer in the vicinity of Alta Loma and Texas City. Pumping tests reveal that the average coefficient of transmissibility of the "Alta Loma" sand is 102,000 at Alta Loma and 153,000 at Texas City. The coefficients- of transmissibility of sands in the upper part of the Beaumont clay around Texas City average 27,300. Surface water from the Brazos River, used for the irrigation of rice since 1942, was made available in 1948 to industries in Texas City as a substitute for ground water. The water from the Brazos River is variable in quality, but probably can be utilized on a somewhat larger scale than at present. Much additional ground water could be obtained from both the "Alta Loma" sand and the upper part of the Beaumont clay, especially in the northern and western parts of the county. Before large developments of supplies are planned, however, these areas should be explored by test drilling. The problems of well spacing and pumping rates should be thoroughly studied in order to determine the maximum development permitted by the ground-water supply. Current observations should be continued with special emphasis on the progress of salt-water encroachment.

Water Supply Paper↗

Revision of Primary Series Maps

In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) completed a 50-year effort to provide primary series map coverage of the United States. Many of these maps now need to be updated to reflect the construction of new roads and highways and other changes that have taken place over time. The USGS has formulated a graphic revision plan to help keep the primary series maps current. Primary series maps include 1:20,000-scale quadrangles of Puerto Rico, 1:24,000- or 1:25,000-scale quadrangles of the conterminous United States, Hawaii, and U.S. Territories, and 1:63,360-scale quadrangles of Alaska. The revision of primary series maps from new collection sources is accomplished using a variety of processes. The raster revision process combines the scanned content of paper maps with raster updating technologies. The vector revision process involves the automated plotting of updated vector files. Traditional processes use analog stereoplotters and manual scribing instruments on specially coated map separates. The ability to select from or combine these processes increases the efficiency of the National Mapping Division map revision program.

Fact Sheet↗

Biology and conservation of Xantus's Murrelet: Discovery, taxonomy and distribution

The biology of Xantus's Murrelets Synthliboramphus hypoleucus is similar in many respects to better-studied Ancient Murrelets S. antiquus, especially regarding morphology and the species' precocial mode of post-hatching development. It nests mainly in rock crevices but also under shrubs on islands in southern California, United States, and northwestern Baja California, Mexico (27 o N to 34 o N). The species was discovered in 1859 by Janos Xantus. Two subspecies ( S. h. hypoleucus and S. h. scrippsi ) are recognized that show limited evidence of interbreeding. At sea, closely related Craveri's Murrelets S. craveri co-occur with Xantus's Murrelets off California and western Baja California during half the year, but the former species has a discrete breeding range in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Breeding was documented at 13 island groups between 1863 and 1976. Post-breeding dispersal as far north as central British Columbia, Canada (c. 52 o N) was observed in the 1940s to 1960s. A few Xantus's Murrelets disperse south of breeding colonies to Magdalena Bay, Baja California (c. 24 o N). The southernmost record is the type specimen collected by Xantus near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California (c. 23 o N). Chief threats to this species include introduced mammalian predators on breeding islands, heightened predation by natural predators in human-modified island habitats, and oil pollution. In January 2005, a Pacific Seabird Group special symposium, "Biology and conservation of the Xantus's Murrelet," highlighted conservation concerns and promoted publication of recent studies of this little-known alcid, with nine symposium papers published in this issue of Marine Ornithology. Much of what we know about Xantus's Murrelets has been learned in recent years, and many aspects of biology remain to be described.

Marine Ornithology: Journal of Seabird Research an↗

Fluvial sediment in the little Arkansas River basin, Kansas

Characteristics and transport of sediment in the Little Arkansas River basin in south-central Kansas were studied to determine if the water from the river could be used as a supplemental source for municipal supply or would provide adequate recharge to aquifers that are sources of municipal and agricultural water supplies. During periods when overland 1low contributed a significant amount to streamflow, the suspended sediment in the Little Arkansas River at Valley Center averaged about 85 percent of clay, about 13 percent of silt, and about 2 percent of sand. The average annual suspended-sediment discharge for the water years 1958, 1959, 1960, and 1961 was about 306,000 tons, and about 80 percent of the load was transported during 133 days of the 1,461-day period. The average daily water discharge of 352 cubic feet per second for the period 1958-61 was more than the long-term (i}9-year) average of 245 cfs; therefore, the average annual sediment load for 1958-61 was probably greater than the average annual load for the same long-term period. Studies of seepage in a part of the channel of Kisiwa Creek indicated that an upstream gravel-pit operation yielded clays which, when deposited in the channel, reduced seepage. A change in plant operation and subsequent runoff that removed the deposited clays restored natural seepage conditions. Experiments by the Wichita Water Department showed that artificial recharge probably cannot be accomplished by using raw turbid water that is injected into wells or by using pits. Recharge by raw turbid water on large permeable areas or by seepage canals may be feasible. Studies of chemical quality of surface water at several sites in the Little Arkansas River basin indicate that Turkey. Creek is a major contributor of chloride and other dissolved solids to the Little Arkansas River and that the dissolved-solids content is probably highest during low-flow periods when suspended-sediment concentration is low. Data collected by the Wichita Water Department indicate that chloride concentrations are diminishing with time at sampled locations. and they receive recharge from rainwater and snowmelt moving through overlying alluvium and from storage in the De Chelly sandstone which encloses the east half of the diatreme. The quality of water from all areas is suitable for domestic use. However, special treatment may be necessary to make the water suitable for pulp processing.

Water Supply Paper↗

Assessment of coastal and fluvial morphodynamic changes using Structure-for-Motion: A case study of the Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta, Romania)

The ability to accurately map erosion, flooding, and habitat loss in coastal environments is crucial for formulating national strategies aimed at preventing and mitigating the impacts of natural disasters. A fundamental component of this process is the implementation of coastal morphodynamics monitoring through Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques, utilizing high-resolution 2D/3D data obtained from aerial photogrammetry. To assess morphodynamic changes over a three-year period (2022 – 2024), several SfM-based photogrammetric studies were conducted, each year, in the Romanian sector of the Danube-Black Sea coastal zone, specifically at the mouth of one of the Danube River distributaries (Sf Gheorghe branch) into the Black Sea, and along the left bank, near Sf Gheorghe locality, located within the Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR). The essential equipment for aerial photogrammetry comprises Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In this study, the UAV used was a DJI Mavic 3T (Enterprise/Thermal) drone, complemented by two Trimble R12i and R4 GNSS systems, as well as approximately 10 Ground Control Points (GCPs). Data acquisition and processing were carried out using specialized photogrammetric software (Agisoft Metashape) along with various GIS tools (e.g., Blue Marble Geographics Global Mapper and ESRI ArcMap). The photogrammetric products generated for the study, as detailed in this paper, include Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Digital Terrain Models (DTMs), orthomosaics (orthophotos), and others. At Sfântu Gheorghe beach, a comparison between 2023 and 2024 photogrammetric surveys revealed that the left bank of the Sf. Gheorghe Arm, at the river mouth into the Black Sea, suffered from a twist (erosion) of up to 64 metres. Additionally, on the selected perimetre (total area of 31,910 square meters ) from the beach and dune zone of Sf. Gheorghe, an area of up to 16,202 square meters was eroded between 2023 and 2024. This contrasts with the period between 2022 and 2023, during which deposition predominated. Erosion at the Danube mouths and the adjacent Black Sea coastline is driven by a complex interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural processes, including subsidence, sea-level rise, and episodic extreme storm events, contribute significantly to coastal dynamics. Meanwhile, human-induced factors, such as upstream hydrotechnical works that limits sediment transport, cutting of navigation canals, as well as the exacerbating effects of climate change, further accelerate erosion. The recent Structure-from-Motion (SfM) surveys provide essential quantitative data, enabling a detailed analysis of both short-term and long-term morphodynamic changes influenced by seasonal variations and extreme hydrometeorological events in this highly dynamic coastal system.

Sfȃntu Gheorghe Mouth (Danube Delta)↗

Advances in transboundary aquifer assessment

This Special Issue is intended to highlight both recent work to advance the physical understanding of transboundary aquifers and factors relevant in successful collaboration on transboundary groundwater resource use. The collected papers address: (1) the identification and prioritization of the needs and strategies for sustainable groundwater development and use, along with the complexities introduced by working across borders with differing governance frameworks, institutions, cultures, and sometimes languages; (2) the characterization of the physical framework of the aquifer, stressors on the aquifer system, and how those stressors influence the availability of groundwater in terms of its quantity and quality; and (3) the incorporation of stakeholder input and prioritization directly into the process of aquifer assessment and model building. The papers provide insights into the state of knowledge regarding the physical characterization of important transboundary aquifers, primarily along the U.S.–Mexico border and the opportunities for greater stakeholder involvement in resource evaluation and prioritization. They point the way towards a future focus that combines both of these aspects of transboundary aquifer assessment for informing groundwater management discussions by policymakers.

Water↗

Ground-water geology of the coastal zone, Long Beach-Santa Ana area, California

This paper is the first chapter of a comprehensive report on the ground-water features in the southern part of the coastal plain in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, Calif., with special reference to the effectiveness of the so-called coastal barrier--the Newport-Inglewood structural zone--in restraining landwar,-1 movement of saline water. The coastal plain in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, which covers some 775 square miles, sustains a large urban and rural population, diverse industries, and intensive agricultural developments. The aggregate ground-water withdrawal in 1945 was about 400,000 acre-feet a year, an average of about 360 million gallons a day. The dominant land-form elements are a central lowland plain with tongues extending to the coast, bordering highlands and foothills, and a succession of low hills and mesas aligned northwestward along the coastal edge of the central low- land plain. These low hills and mesas are the land-surface expression of geologic structure in the Newport-Inglewood zone. The highland areas that border the inland edge of the coastal plain are of moderate altitude and relief; most of the ridge crests range from 1,400 to 2,500 feet in altitude, but Santiago Peak in the Santa Ana Mountains attains a height of 5,680 feet above sea level. From these highlands the land surface descends across foothills and aggraded alluvial aprons to the central lowland, Downey Plain, here defined as the surface formed by alluvial aggradation during the post-Pleistocene time of rising base level. The Newport-Inglewood belt of hills and plains (mesas) has a maximum relief of some 500 feet but is widely underlain at a depth of about 30 feet by a surface of marine plantation. As initially formed in late Pleistocene time that surface was largely a featureless plain. Thus the present land-surface forms within the Newport-Inglewood belt measure the earth deformation that has occurred there since late Pleistocene time and so are pertinent with respect to structural features that influence the watertightness of the so-called coastal barrier. The hills and mesas of the Newport-Inglewood belt are cut by six gaps through which tongues of the central lowland extend to the coast. The gaps are trenched in the deformed late Pleistocene surface and are floored with alluvium that is highly permeable in its lower part. The Long Beach-Santa Ana area, with which this report is concerned, encompasses the central and eastern segments of the coastal plain, and includes five of the gaps in succession from northwest to south- east: Dominguez, Alamitos, Sunset, Bolsa, and Santa Ana Gaps. In the Long Beach-Santa Ana area a thick sequence of Quaternary and Tertiary sedimentary rocks has been deposited on a basement of metamorphic and crystalline rocks of pre-Tertiary age. In the broad syncline underlying tl e central part of Downey Plain these sediments probably exceed 20,000 feet in thickness. This report pertains chiefly to the geology and water-bearing character of the rocks that underlie the coastal zone of the Long Beach-Santa Ana area. This area extends some 27 miles from Dominguez Hill on the northwest to Newport Beach on the southeast, has an average width of about 6 miles, includes some 180 square miles, and borders the Pacific Ocean. Of the Quaternary deposits the youngest are of Recent age and comprise silt, sand, gravel, and clay, chiefly of fluvial origin; they are the latest contributions to the alluvial cones of the Los Angeles, San Gabriel, and Santa Ana Rivers; their thickness is as much as 175 feet. The upper division of the Recent deposits, largely fine sand and silt of low permeability, commonly furnishes water only to a few wells of small yield; the lower division is coarse sand and gravel deposited chiefly in two tongues extending respectively, from Whittier Narrows through Dominguez Gap and from Santa Ana Canyon through Santa Ana Gap.

California↗

Environmental Resources Analysis System, A Prototype DSS

Since the 1960's, an increase in the public's environmental ethics, federal species preservation, water quality protection, and interest in free flowing rivers have evolved to the current concern for stewardship and conservation of natural resources. This heightened environmental awareness creates an appetite for data, models, information management, and systematic analysis of multiple scientific disciplines. A good example of this information and analysis need resides in the Green and Yampa Rivers, tributary to the Upper Colorado River. These rivers are home to endangered native fish species including the pikeminnow and razorback sucker. Two dams, Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge, impound the Green River headwaters. The respective reservoirs store water supplies as well as generate hydropower. Conversely, the Yampa River is considered unregulated and encompasses most of Dinosaur National Monument. Recreation is highly regarded on both rivers including fishing, whitewater rafting, and aesthetic values. Vast areas of irrigated agriculture, forestry, and mineral extraction also surround these rivers. To address this information need, we developed a prototype Environmental Resources Analysis System (ERAS) spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS). ERAS provides access to historic data sets, scientific information, statistical analysis, model outputs, and comparative methods all in a familiar and user-friendly format. This research project demonstrates a simplified decision support system for use by a diverse mix of resource managers, special interest groups, and individuals concerned about the sustainability of the Green and Yampa River ecosystem.

Conference Paper↗

Risk-targeted versus current seismic design maps for the conterminous United States

The probabilistic portions of the seismic design maps in the NEHRP Provisions (FEMA, 2003/2000/1997), and in the International Building Code (ICC, 2006/2003/2000) and ASCE Standard 7-05 (ASCE, 2005a), provide ground motion values from the USGS that have a 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Under the assumption that the capacity against collapse of structures designed for these "uniformhazard" ground motions is equal to, without uncertainty, the corresponding mapped value at the location of the structure, the probability of its collapse in 50 years is also uniform. This is not the case however, when it is recognized that there is, in fact, uncertainty in the structural capacity. In that case, siteto-site variability in the shape of ground motion hazard curves results in a lack of uniformity. This paper explains the basis for proposed adjustments to the uniform-hazard portions of the seismic design maps currently in the NEHRP Provisions that result in uniform estimated collapse probability. For seismic design of nuclear facilities, analogous but specialized adjustments have recently been defined in ASCE Standard 43-05 (ASCE, 2005b). In support of the 2009 update of the NEHRP Provisions currently being conducted by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC), herein we provide examples of the adjusted ground motions for a selected target collapse probability (or target risk). Relative to the probabilistic MCE ground motions currently in the NEHRP Provisions, the risk-targeted ground motions for design are smaller (by as much as about 30%) in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, near Charleston, South Carolina, and in the coastal region of Oregon, with relatively little (<15%) change almost everywhere else in the conterminous U.S.

Conference Paper↗

Rotational Seismology Workshop of February 2006

Introduction A successful workshop titled 'Measuring the Rotation Effects of Strong Ground Motion' was held simultaneously in Menlo Park and Pasadena via video conference on 16 February 2006. The purpose of the Workshop and this Report are to summarize existing data and theory and to explore future challenges for rotational seismology, including free-field strong motion, structural strong motion, and teleseismic motions. We also forged a consensus on the plan of work to be pursued by this international group in the near term. At this first workshop were 16 participants in Menlo Park, 13 in Pasadena, and a few on the telephone. It was organized by William H. K. Lee and John R. Evans and chaired by William U. Savage in Menlo Park and by Kenneth W. Hudnut in Pasadena. Its agenda is given in the Appendix. This workshop and efforts in Europe led to the creation of the International Working Group on Rotational Seismology (IWGoRS), an international volunteer group providing forums for exchange of ideas and data as well as hosting a series of Workshops and Special Sessions. IWGoRS created a Web site, backed by an FTP site, for distribution of materials related to rotational seismology. At present, the FTP site contains the 2006 Workshop agenda (also given in the Appendix below) and its PowerPoint presentations, as well as many papers (reasonable-only basis with permission of their authors), a comprehensive citations list, and related information. Eventually, the Web site will become the sole authoritative source for IWGoRS and shared information: http://www.rotational-seismology.org ftp://ehzftp.wr.usgs.gov/jrevans/IWGoRS_FTPsite/ With contributions from various authors during and after the 2006 Workshop, this Report proceeds from the theoretical bases for making rotational measurements (Graizer, Safak, Trifunac) through the available observations (Huang, Lee, Liu, Nigbor), proposed suites of measurements (Hudnut), a discussion of broadband teleseismic rotational seismology (Cochard, Igel, Schreiber, Teisseyre, Wassermann, Majewski), sensor-calibration issues (Evans, Hutt), and finally the summary and conclusions (Savage). As a direct result of the 2006 Workshop and the formation of IWGoRS, we held a special session at the Fall 2006 AGU meeting (convened by H. Igel, W.H.K. Lee, and M.I. Todorovska). Currently, the first formal Workshop of the IWGoRS is being organized by W.H.K. Lee, M. Celebi, and M. I. Todorovska with sponsorship by the USGS and assistance from many others; this First International Workshop on Rotational Seismology and Engineering Applications will be held in September 2007 at Menlo Park, California (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1144/). The following summarizes presentations and discussions during and shortly after the informal Workshop of February 2006.

Open-File Report↗

From understanding to action: Integrating new and old methodologies to manage marine infectious disease

Marine diseases can have far-reaching effects on population, community and ecosystem health; however, our ability to track, predict and manage these diseases has, historically, been poor. As a result, the fields of disease ecology and epidemiology have developed at a slower pace for marine than terrestrial systems [ 1 ]. New methodologies, including genomic tools for diagnostics [ 2 , 3 ], transcriptomic tools for measuring host and pathogen responses to infection (e.g. [ 4 , 5 ]), regional oceanic modelling systems that estimate environmental conditions influencing pathogen dispersal and disease progression [ 6 ], artificial intelligence methods for quantifying pathology from images (e.g. [ 7 ]) and advanced disease modelling techniques [ 8 , 9 ] are precipitating a rapid increase in our understanding of marine pathosystems. In 2016, these efforts led to the first special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B ( Marine diseases, volume 371, issue 1689) focused entirely on marine disease ecology and evolution, and in 2020, the first book, Marine disease ecology, was devoted to this topic [ 10 ]. This special issue, focused on marine disease management , is being published a decade after the first Philosophical Transactions special issue on marine diseases. The shift to a management focus reflects an urgent need for management strategies to address high-impact diseases and the rapid methodological advances that have resulted. The papers included in this issue demonstrate the value of combining classical approaches (e.g. routine disease surveillance, reductionistic pathogen challenge trials, rapid throughput diagnostics) with cutting-edge technologies (e.g. high-resolution oceanographic models, Bayesian models, replicated transcriptomic studies) to identify drivers of disease, quantify impacts and suggest management strategies.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, S↗