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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

USGS2016

A fault-based model for crustal deformation, fault slip-rates and off-fault strain rate in California

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 deformation working group. The result of least‐squares inversion shows that the San Andreas fault slips at 19–22  mm/yr along Santa Cruz to the North Coast, 25–28  mm/yr along the central California creeping segment to the Carrizo Plain, 20–22  mm/yr along the Mojave, and 20–24  mm/yr along the Coachella to the Imperial Valley. Modeled slip rates are 7–16  mm/yr lower than the preferred geologic rates from the central California creeping section to the San Bernardino North section. For the Bartlett Springs section, fault slip rates of 7–9  mm/yr fall within the geologic bounds but are twice the preferred geologic rates. For the central and eastern Garlock, inverted slip rates of 7.5 and 4.9  mm/yr, respectively, match closely with the geologic rates. For the western Garlock, however, our result suggests a low slip rate of 1.7  mm/yr. Along the eastern California shear zone and southern Walker Lane, our model shows a cumulative slip rate of 6.2–6.9  mm/yr across its east–west transects, which is &sim;1  mm/yr increase of the geologic estimates. For the off‐coast faults of central California, from Hosgri to San Gregorio, fault slips are modeled at 1–5  mm/yr, similar to the lower geologic bounds. For the off‐fault deformation, the total moment rate amounts to 0.88×10 19   N·m/yr, with fast straining regions found around the Mendocino triple junction, Transverse Ranges and Garlock fault zones, Landers and Brawley seismic zones, and farther south. The overall California moment rate is 2.76×10 19   N·m/yr, which is a 16% increase compared with the UCERF2 model.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Landslides and megathrust splay faults captured by the late Holocene sediment record of eastern Prince William Sound, Alaska

We present new marine seismic‐reflection profiles and bathymetric maps to characterize Holocene depositional patterns, submarine landslides, and active faults beneath eastern and central Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, which is the eastern rupture patch of the 1964 Mw 9.2 earthquake. We show evidence that submarine landslides, many of which are likely earthquake triggered, repeatedly released along the southern margin of Orca Bay in eastern PWS. We document motion on reverse faults during the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and estimate late Holocene slip rates for these growth faults, which splay from the subduction zone megathrust. Regional bathymetric lineations help define the faults that extend 40–70 km in length, some of which show slip rates as great as 3.75  mm/yr. We infer that faults mapped below eastern PWS connect to faults mapped beneath central PWS and possibly onto the Alaska mainland via an en echelon style of faulting. Moderate (Mw>4) upper‐plate earthquakes since 1964 give rise to the possibility that these faults may rupture independently to potentially generate Mw 7–8 earthquakes, and that these earthquakes could damage local infrastructure from ground shaking. Submarine landslides, regardless of the source of initiation, could generate local tsunamis to produce large run‐ups along nearby shorelines. In a more general sense, the PWS area shows that faults that splay from the underlying plate boundary present proximal, perhaps independent seismic sources within the accretionary prism, creating a broad zone of potential surface rupture that can extend inland 150 km or more from subduction zone trenches.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Revisions to some parameters used in stochastic-method simulations of ground motion

The stochastic method of ground‐motion simulation specifies the amplitude spectrum as a function of magnitude ( M ) and distance ( R ). The manner in which the amplitude spectrum varies with M and R depends on physical‐based parameters that are often constrained by recorded motions for a particular region (e.g., stress parameter, geometrical spreading, quality factor, and crustal amplifications), which we refer to as the seismological model. The remaining ingredient for the stochastic method is the ground‐motion duration. Although the duration obviously affects the character of the ground motion in the time domain, it also significantly affects the response of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom oscillator. Recently published updates to the stochastic method include a new generalized double‐corner‐frequency source model, a new finite‐fault correction, a new parameterization of duration, and a new duration model for active crustal regions. In this article, we augment these updates with a new crustal amplification model and a new duration model for stable continental regions. Random‐vibration theory (RVT) provides a computationally efficient method to compute the peak oscillator response directly from the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration. Because the correction factor used to account for the nonstationarity of the ground motion depends on the ground‐motion amplitude spectrum and duration, we also present new RVT correction factors for both active and stable regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

On the sensitivity of transtensional versus transpressional tectonic regimes to remote dynamic triggering by Coulomb failure

Accumulating evidence, although still strongly spatially aliased, indicates that although remote dynamic triggering of small-to-moderate (M w <5) earthquakes can occur in all tectonic settings, transtensional stress regimes with normal and subsidiary strike-slip faulting seem to be more susceptible to dynamic triggering than transpressional regimes with reverse and subsidiary strike-slip faulting. Analysis of the triggering potential of Love- and Rayleigh-wave dynamic stresses incident on normal, reverse, and strike-slip faults assuming Andersonian faulting theory and simple Coulomb failure supports this apparent difference for rapid-onset triggering susceptibility.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Moment tensors and other source parameters of mining‐induced earthquakes in TauTona Mine, South Africa

Induced seismicity exhibits diverse source mechanisms that are often difficult to constrain for small events. Here, we use data from the in‐mine seismic network, the Natural Earthquake Laboratory in South African Mines network, and a temporary Program for the Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere deployment in TauTona Mine, South Africa, to determine full moment tensors of 100 mining‐induced earthquakes in the magnitude range −2.7< M w <2.5. Ground displacement derived from velocity and acceleration data show clear near‐field effects, indicating that the lowest frequencies are well resolved. Phase amplitudes of between 11 and 77 picks per event were inverted to obtain the six independent moment tensor components. The quality of each moment tensor solution is quantified using (1) the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, (2) bootstrap resampling to estimate uncertainties, and (3) the F ‐test to determine the need for including an isotropic component with an extra degree of freedom in the solution. The results indicate 82% of the events have well‐constrained solutions, and 45% of the well‐constrained events require an isotropic source term. Throughout the magnitude range, both deviatoric and implosive mechanisms are observed, with implosive ratios of volume change to shear deformation (ΔV/Σ τ ) of −1.03 to −0.15. Two explosive events are observed at M w −0.5 and −0.2, withΔV/Σ τ =0.15 and 0.51, respectively. For the largest events, we determine maximum slip and apparent stress ( τ a ) and find values consistent with those of natural tectonic earthquakes, with 0.1≤ τ a ≤9.2 MPa. Our results support previous speculation on the nature of isotropic components of mining‐induced earthquakes, in which events of all sizes begin as shear failure that may intersect a void (tunnel or stope) and cause collapse, whereas only small events result in explosive sources.

TauTona Mine↗

USGS2015

Ground motion simulation for the 23 August 2011, Mineral, Virginia earthquake using physics-based and stochastic broadband methods

Three broadband simulation methods are used to generate synthetic ground motions for the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake and compare with observed motions. The methods include a physics‐based model by Hartzell et al. (1999, 2005), a stochastic source‐based model by Boore (2009), and a stochastic site‐based model by Rezaeian and Der Kiureghian (2010, 2012). The ground‐motion dataset consists of 40 stations within 600 km of the epicenter. Several metrics are used to validate the simulations: (1) overall bias of response spectra and Fourier spectra (from 0.1 to 10 Hz); (2) spatial distribution of residuals for GMRotI50 peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity, and pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) at various periods; (3) comparison with ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the eastern United States. Our results show that (1) the physics‐based model provides satisfactory overall bias from 0.1 to 10 Hz and produces more realistic synthetic waveforms; (2) the stochastic site‐based model also yields more realistic synthetic waveforms and performs superiorly for frequencies greater than about 1 Hz; (3) the stochastic source‐based model has larger bias at lower frequencies (<0.5  Hz) and cannot reproduce the varying frequency content in the time domain. The spatial distribution of GMRotI50 residuals shows that there is no obvious pattern with distance in the simulation bias, but there is some azimuthal variability. The comparison between synthetics and GMPEs shows similar fall‐off with distance for all three models, comparable PGA and PSA amplitudes for the physics‐based and stochastic site‐based models, and systematic lower amplitudes for the stochastic source‐based model at lower frequencies (<0.5  Hz).

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Ground motion-simulations of 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, central United States

We performed a suite of numerical simulations based on the 1811–1812 New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) earthquakes, which demonstrate the importance of 3D geologic structure and rupture directivity on the ground‐motion response throughout a broad region of the central United States (CUS) for these events. Our simulation set consists of 20 hypothetical earthquakes located along two faults associated with the current seismicity trends in the NMSZ. The hypothetical scenarios range in magnitude from M 7.0 to 7.7 and consider various epicenters, slip distributions, and rupture characterization approaches. The low‐frequency component of our simulations was computed deterministically up to a frequency of 1 Hz using a regional 3D seismic velocity model and was combined with higher‐frequency motions calculated for a 1D medium to generate broadband synthetics (0–40 Hz in some cases). For strike‐slip earthquakes located on the southwest–northeast‐striking NMSZ axial arm of seismicity, our simulations show 2–10 s period energy channeling along the trend of the Reelfoot rift and focusing strong shaking northeast toward Paducah, Kentucky, and Evansville, Indiana, and southwest toward Little Rock, Arkansas. These waveguide effects are further accentuated by rupture directivity such that an event with a western epicenter creates strong amplification toward the northeast, whereas an eastern epicenter creates strong amplification toward the southwest. These effects are not as prevalent for simulations on the reverse‐mechanism Reelfoot fault, and large peak ground velocities (>40  cm/s) are typically confined to the near‐source region along the up‐dip projection of the fault. Nonetheless, these basin response and rupture directivity effects have a significant impact on the pattern and level of the estimated intensities, which leads to additional uncertainty not previously considered in magnitude estimates of the 1811–1812 sequence based only on historical reports. The region covered by our simulation domain encompasses a large portion of the CUS centered on the NMSZ, including several major metropolitan areas. Based on our simulations, more than eight million people living and working near the NMSZ would experience potentially damaging ground motion and modified Mercalli intensities ranging from VI to VIII if a repeat of the 1811–1812 earthquakes occurred today. Moreover, the duration of strong ground shaking in the greater Memphis metropolitan area could last from 30 to more than 60 s, depending on the magnitude and epicenter.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee↗

USGS2015

Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

California↗

USGS2015

The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

California↗

USGS2015

High‐resolution trench photomosaics from image‐based modeling: Workflow and error analysis

Photomosaics are commonly used to construct maps of paleoseismic trench exposures, but the conventional process of manually using image‐editing software is time consuming and produces undesirable artifacts and distortions. Herein, we document and evaluate the application of image‐based modeling (IBM) for creating photomosaics and 3D models of paleoseismic trench exposures, illustrated with a case‐study trench across the Wasatch fault in Alpine, Utah. Our results include a structure‐from‐motion workflow for the semiautomated creation of seamless, high‐resolution photomosaics designed for rapid implementation in a field setting. Compared with conventional manual methods, the IBM photomosaic method provides a more accurate, continuous, and detailed record of paleoseismic trench exposures in approximately half the processing time and 15%–20% of the user input time. Our error analysis quantifies the effect of the number and spatial distribution of control points on model accuracy. For this case study, an ∼87 m 2 exposure of a benched trench photographed at viewing distances of 1.5–7 m yields a model with <2 cm root mean square error (rmse) with as few as six control points. Rmse decreases as more control points are implemented, but the gains in accuracy are minimal beyond 12 control points. Spreading control points throughout the target area helps to minimize error. We propose that 3D digital models and corresponding photomosaics should be standard practice in paleoseismic exposure archiving. The error analysis serves as a guide for future investigations that seek balance between speed and accuracy during photomosaic and 3D model construction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

California↗

USGS2015

GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity

Global earthquake activity rate model 1 (GEAR1) estimates the rate of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes 6–9 everywhere on Earth. It was designed to be reproducible and testable. Our preferred hybrid forecast is a log–linear blend of two parent forecasts based on the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog (smoothing 4602 m≥5.767 shallow earthquakes, 1977–2004) and the Global Strain Rate Map version 2.1 (smoothing 22,415 Global Positioning System velocities), optimized to best forecast the 2005–2012 Global CMT catalog. Strain rate is a proxy for fault stress accumulation, and earthquakes indicate stress release, so a multiplicative blend is desirable, capturing the strengths of both approaches. This preferred hybrid forecast outperforms its seismicity and strain‐rate parents; the chance that this improvement stems from random seismicity fluctuations is less than 1%. The preferred hybrid is also tested against the independent parts of the International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model catalog (m≥6.8 during 1918–1976) with similar success. GEAR1 is an update of this preferred hybrid. Comparing GEAR1 to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), net earthquake rates agree within 4% at m≥5.8 and at m≥7.0. The spatial distribution of UCERF3 epicentroids most resembles GEAR1 after UCERF3 is smoothed with a 30 km kernel. Because UCERF3 has been constructed to derive useful information from fault geometry, slip rates, paleoseismic data, and enhanced seismic catalogs (not used in our model), this is encouraging. To build parametric catastrophe bonds from GEAR1, one could calculate the magnitude for which there is a 1% (or any) annual probability of occurrence in local regions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Comparisons between vs30 and spectral response for 30 sites in Newcastle, Australia from collocated seismic cone penetrometer, active- and passive-source vs data

Although the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity down to 30 m depth ( V S 30 ) can be a proxy for estimating earthquake ground‐motion amplification, significant controversy exists about its limitations when used as a single parameter for the prediction of amplification. To examine this question in absence of relevant strong‐motion records, we use a range of different methods to measure the shear‐wave velocity profiles and the resulting theoretical site amplification factors (AFs) for 30 sites in the Newcastle area, Australia, in a series of blind comparison studies. The multimethod approach used here combines past seismic cone penetrometer and spectral analysis of surface‐wave data, with newly acquired horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio, passive‐source surface‐wave spatial autocorrelation (SPAC), refraction microtremor (ReMi), and multichannel analysis of surface‐wave data. The various measurement techniques predicted a range of different AFs. The SPAC and ReMi techniques have the smallest overall deviation from the median AF for the majority of sites. We show that V S 30 can be related to spectral response above a period T of 0.5 s but not necessarily with the maximum amplification according to the modeling done based on the measured shear‐wave velocity profiles. Both V S 30 and AF values are influenced by the velocity ratio between bedrock and overlying sediments and the presence of surficial thin low‐velocity layers (<2 m thick and <150 m/s), but the velocity ratio is what mostly affects the AF. At 0.2< T <0.4 s, the AFs are largely controlled by the surficial geology of a particular site. AF maxima are the highest in the hard classes, which is the inverse of the findings used in the Australian Building Code. Only for T >0.5 s do the amplification curves consistently show higher values for soft site classes and lower for hard classes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high-frequency amplitude

We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference ( T op ) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that M w is proportional to 2log T op for earthquakes 5≤ M w ≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if T op is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between M w and M T op ( M estimated from T op ) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. T op depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances <200  km. Retrospective application of this algorithm to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that T op of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?

Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? How much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? In this article, we show that (1) seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the twentieth century; (2) several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century were likely induced by oil production activities, as they exhibit statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence with disposal wells, and intensity measurements for the 1952 El Reno earthquake and possibly the 1956 Tulsa County earthquake follow the pattern observed in other induced earthquakes; and (3) there is evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt. The 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw 4.8, occurred in this zone.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2016

An automatic P‐Phase arrival‐time picker

Presented is a new approach for picking P ‐phase arrival time in single‐component acceleration or broadband velocity records without requiring detection interval or threshold settings. The algorithm P PHASE P ICKER transforms the signal into a response domain of a single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) oscillator with viscous damping and then tracks the rate of change of dissipated damping energy to pick P ‐wave phases. The SDOF oscillator has a short natural period and a correspondingly high resonant frequency, which is higher than most frequencies in a seismic wave. It also has a high damping ratio (60% of critical). At this damping level, the frequency response approaches the Butterworth maximally flat magnitude filter, and phase angles are preserved. The relative input energy imparted to the oscillator by the input signal is converted to elastic strain energy and then dissipated by the damping element as damping energy. The damping energy yields a smooth envelope over time; it is zero in the beginning of the signal, zero or near zero before the P ‐phase arrival, and builds up rapidly with the P wave. Because the damping energy function changes considerably at the onset of the P wave, it is used as a metric to track and pick the P ‐phase arrival time. The P PHASE P ICKER detects P ‐phase onset using the histogram method. Its performance is compared with picking techniques using short‐term‐average to long‐term‐average ratio, and a picking method that finds the first P ‐phase arrival time using the Akaike information criterion. A large set of records with various intensities and signal‐to‐noise ratios is used for testing the P PHASE P ICKER , and it is demonstrated that P PHASE P ICKER is able to more accurately pick the onset of genuine signals against the background noise and to correctly distinguish between whether the first arrival is a P wave (emergent or impulsive) or whether the signal is from a faulty sensor.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Ground motions at the outermost limits of seismically triggered landslides

Over the last few decades, we and our colleagues have conducted field investigations in which we mapped the outermost limits of triggered landslides in four earthquakes: 1987 Whittier Narrows, California ( M 5.9), 1987 Superstition Hills, California ( M 6.5), 1994 Northridge, California ( M 6.7), and 2011 Mineral, Virginia ( M 5.8). In an additional two earthquakes, 1976 Guatemala ( M 7.5) and 1983 Coalinga, California ( M 6.5), we determined limits using high‐resolution aerial‐photographic interpretation in conjunction with more limited ground investigation. Limits in these earthquakes were defined by the locations of the very smallest failures (<1  m 3 ) from the most susceptible slopes that can be identified positively as having been triggered by earthquake shaking. Because we and our colleagues conducted all of these investigations, consistent methodology and criteria were used in determining limits. In the six earthquakes examined, we correlated the outermost landslide limits with peak ground accelerations (PGAs) from ShakeMap models of each earthquake. For the four earthquakes studied by field investigation, the minimum PGA values associated with farthest landslide limits ranged from 0.02 g to 0.08 g . The range for the two earthquakes investigated using aerial‐photographic interpretations was 0.05–0.11 g . Although PGA values at landslide limits depend on several factors, including material strength, topographic amplification, and hydrologic conditions, these values provide an empirically useful lower limiting range of PGA needed to trigger the smallest failures on very susceptible slopes. In a well‐recorded earthquake, this PGA range can be used to identify an outer boundary within which we might expect to find landsliding; in earthquakes that are not well recorded, mapping the outermost landslide limits provides a useful clue about ground‐motion levels at the mapped limits.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Long Valley caldera and the UCERF depiction of Sierra Nevada range-front faults

Long Valley caldera lies within a left-stepping offset in the north-northwest-striking Sierra Nevada range-front normal faults with the Hilton Creek fault to the south and Hartley Springs fault to the north. Both Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) 2 and its update, UCERF3, depict slip on these major range-front normal faults as extending well into the caldera, with significant normal slip on overlapping, subparallel segments separated by &sim;10  km. This depiction is countered by (1) geologic evidence that normal faulting within the caldera consists of a series of graben structures associated with postcaldera magmatism (intrusion and tumescence) and not systematic down-to-the-east displacements consistent with distributed range-front faulting and (2) the lack of kinematic evidence for an evolving, postcaldera relay ramp structure between overlapping strands of the two range-front normal faults. The modifications to the UCERF depiction described here reduce the predicted shaking intensity within the caldera, and they are in accord with the tectonic influence that underlapped offset range-front faults have on seismicity patterns within the caldera associated with ongoing volcanic unrest.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗