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At least 541 records · Page 30Linked to original sources

USGS2024

Sero-epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza viruses among wild birds in subarctic intercontinental transition zones

Background: The geographic expansion and evolution of A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996(H5N1) (Gs/GD) lineage H5Nx highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses since 1996 have raised awareness of enzootic circulation among migratory birds and the potential for intercontinental transport and spread. Recent Pacific- and Atlantic-route introductions of HPAI to North America were facilitated by avian migration through subarctic zones, specifically Alaska and Iceland. This study aimed to identify recent historical patterns of exposure to HPAI viruses among birds within and migrating through both regions and evaluate how geographic, demographic, and taxonomic differences contribute to exposure risk at two intercontinental staging locations. Methods: During 2010-2019, blood samples were obtained from captured wild migratory seabirds and waterfowl in Alaska and Iceland. All live birds were released following completion of sampling. Sampling date, species, sampling location, and age class was documented for each bird, and sex was documented when possible. Lentiviral pseudoviruses that express the influenza hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein for H5Nx HPAI and H5 low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) were constructed for use in serological assays to screen for and quantify titers of antibodies against the latter viruses. Data were analyzed to compare (a) categorical baseline ecological traits between Iceland and Alaska, and (b) ecological traits between birds identified to be seropositive and suggestive/seronegative/fully cross-reactive birds to H5Nx HPAI in Iceland and Alaska. Factors associated with seroreactivity to H5Nx HPAI and H5 LPAI were assessed. Results: The seroprevalence of HPAI among birds in both locations was 7.3% (112/1526). Findings reveal variability in seroprevalence by year, higher rates of exposure to H5 LPAI than H5Nx HPAI overall, and significantly more seropositive and suggestive exposure of birds to H5Nx HPAI in Alaska as compared to Iceland. Geographic, demographic, and taxonomic differences contribute to exposure risk between Alaska and Iceland. Most tested birds were immuno-naïve to HPAI in both locations, which indicates many migratory birds in the subarctic are susceptible to HPAI infection, demonstrating substantial risk for intercontinental transmission between Asia, Europe, and North America. Conclusions: Our findings provide further justification for increased viral and serosurveillance in Alaska and Iceland to monitor subarctic movements of migratory birds and intercontinental transmission dynamics of currently circulating and new strains of HPAI globally.

Research Square↗

USGS1986

Stratigraphic potential of Bolboforma significantly increased by new finds in the North Atlantic and South Pacific

Until now, the genus Bolboforma, a problematic group of calcareous microfossils, has been recorded only in Oligocene to Pliocene marine sedimentary rocks, chiefly in the eastern North Atlantic region. We add to this eastern North Atlantic record six new sites and eleven undescribed species from the continental slopes of Ireland and Morocco. More significantly, we record, for the first time, abundant assemblages of Bolboforma on the western side of the North Atlantic and in the western South Pacific. Seven boreholes on the continental shelf and slope of New Jersey and Virginia contain ten species, three of which are new. Two species are present in two outcrops in eastern Mississippi and four are present in a borehole in the coastal plain of Virginia. On the Lord Howe Rise, west of New Zealand, a DSDP corehole has yielded a rich assemblage including four undescribed species. In addition to expanding the geographic distribution of Bolboforma, our work extends the known stratigraphic range downward into the upper Eocene on both sides of the North Atlantic and in the western South Pacific. Our findings firmly support the inference of a planktonic life style for Bolboforma, which implies a significant potential for biostratigraphic, paleobiogeographic, and paleoenvironmental studies, on both a local and global scale. We recommend a concerted effort to further document the nature and distribution of Bolboforma.

Palaios↗

USGS1983

Structure maps and seismic stratigraphy of the Yakataga segment of the continental margin, northern Gulf of Alaska

Multichannel seismic-reflection data show the late Cenozoic structure, seismic stratigraphy, and geologic history of the Yakataga segment of the continental margin, between Icy Bay and Kayak Island, northern Gulf of Alaska. The structure of the Yakataga segment consists of broad folds and associated thrust faults beneath the continental shelf and slope, trending generally northeast in the eastern part of the s~gment to east-west in the western part. Anticlines are generally asymmetric and doubly plunging and are commonly bounded on the seaward side by high-angle thrust faults. The degree of deformation is less intense than is observed in adjacent onshore areas. The age of deformation decreases seaward and the deformation shows an overall southeastward migration with time. Structures of similar age define three structural zones; structural growth was roughly contemporaneous in each structural zone, although the local growth pattern is complex in detail. Deformation within each structural zone was followed by subsidence and burial by rapidly deposited marine sediment. Deformation appears to have been continuous during the late Cenozoic, rather than a series of discrete events, because subsidence of a particular structural zone is accompanied by initiation of growth on a younger, more seaward zone. Varying degrees of reactivation of the older structures within recent time have resulted in renewed uplift of these structures. Average sedimentation, uplift, and subsidence rates are all extremely high, and generally range from about 1 to 2 m/1,000 yr; these rates can locally be much higher. The average strike of structures in the Yakataga segment indicates northwest-southeastward compression and is consistent with the current convergence direction between the Pacific and North America plates. Observed shortening within the segment is much less than required by the late Cenozoic convergence rate (about 6 cm/yr), and the major deformation is taken up elsewhere, primarily onshore. Thus, the deformation of the Yakataga segment is caused by minor shortening of the continental margin between Cross Sound and Kayak Island, which together comprise the Yakutat block, as the margin moves northwestward with the Pacific plate and collides with the North America plate.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Wetland stratigraphic evidence for variable megathrust earthquake rupture modes at the Cascadia subduction zone

Although widespread agreement that the Cascadia subduction zone produces great earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 9 was reached decades ago, debate continues about the rupture lengths, magnitudes, and frequency of megathrust earthquakes recorded by wetland stratigraphy fringing Cascadia’s estuaries. Correlation of such coastal earthquake evidence along the subduction zone has largely relied on relative position in a stratigraphic sequence and maximum-limiting 14C ages with errors of decades to hundreds of years. Offshore, a 10,000-year record of turbidites in marine cores is interpreted as an archive of strong shaking from great earthquakes, with an average frequency of about 500 years in northern Cascadia versus 200-300 years in southern Oregon and northern California. Onshore, fewer events marked by sharp (<3 mm) peat-mud (mud-over-peat) contacts in tidal wetland stratigraphic sequences have been widely inferred to record sudden relative sea-level rise due to coseismic subsidence during megathrust earthquakes: 4-7 sharp subsidence contacts in 3500 years at estuaries in northern Oregon and southern Washington (500-800 year average recurrence), and 9-12 sharp subsidence contacts in over 6000 years in sequences in central and southern Oregon (500-900 year average recurrence). Improved understanding of the onshore and offshore records is critical to the assessment of earthquake hazard in western North America and of tsunami hazard in the Pacific basin. However, because dating the turbidite record is inherently much less precise than are age models for subsidence events in the most thoroughly studied tidal wetland sequences, accurate reconstruction of the times of Cascadia’s great earthquakes depends on the ages from the onshore record. Although methods to reduce uncertainty in the limits of resolution of tidal stratigraphy for recording earthquakes of a particular magnitude, and ways to distinguish earthquake subsidence stratigraphic contacts from non-seismic contacts, have been discussed for decades (e.g., Nelson, 1992; Atwater, 1992; Darienzo et al., 1994; Nelson et al., 1996a; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Witter et al., 2001; Kelsey et al., 2002; Nelson et al., 2006; Graehl et al., 2014; Milker et al., 2016), consensus about the threshold of resolution (minimum identifiable evidence of an earthquake) of tidal stratigraphy and, therefore, the completeness of Cascadia’s coastal record of great earthquakes, remains elusive. Although the most distinct, widespread contacts likely record close to a meter of coastal subsidence during the greatest megathrust earthquakes (e.g., M8.8-M9), other contacts may record <0.5 m of subsidence onshore of patches of low stress release on the megathrust during great earthquakes, during lesser megathrust earthquakes (e.g., M8.2-8.6), or from localized subsidence near upper-plate faults that slip during or independently of megathrust earthquakes (Nelson et al., 1996b; Wang et al., 2013; Kemp et al., 2018). At the Siuslaw River estuary in central Oregon (lat. 43.97°) a stratigraphy of 9-12 peat-mud contacts, similar to those described from many Cascadia estuaries, may record a greater number of earthquakes during the past 2000 years than at any other of the tens of tidal wetland sites to the north and south. Here, as well as at many tens of other Cascadia tidal wetland sites, peat-mud contacts mark the tops of couplets of tidal flat and low marsh mud gradually shoaling upward into middle and high marsh peat. Along core transects across an 800-m-wide, island marsh in the Siuslaw River, we traced the 9 most continuous of 12-15 peaty beds dating from the past 2000 years for 250-500 m, but we had difficulty correlating the 3-6 intervening beds >50-100 m. We attribute the sharper, more extensive upper contacts on peaty beds—two capped by sandy beds probably deposited by tsunamis—to sudden coseismic subsidence of middle and high marshes, but origins for other upper and lower contacts boundi

Conference Paper↗

USGS1989

Biogeography of marine podocopid Ostracodes in Micronesia

Shallow-water podocopic marine Ostracoda from Micronesian lagoons in the Marianas, Caroline, Marshall and Gilbert Islands in the western Pacific were analysed to establish their diversity and zoogeography within Micronesia and the taxonomic affinities with ostracodes from other tropical regions. Sixty-four bottom lagoonal sediment samples from twelve islands and atolls yielded more than seventy species representing over thirty-two ostracode genera. Q-mode cluster analysis using Jaccard coefficients showed that, with few exceptions, all or most samples from a particular lagoon form distinct subgroups (Jaccard=0.45-0.50). At lower levels, five groups delineate faunal regions within Micronesia: the Gilbert Islands (Onotoa) in the southeast part of the region, the northern Marshall Islands (Enewetak, Rongelap, Bikini), the southestern Marshall Islands (Kwajalein, Jaluit, Majuro, Arno), the Marianas and Caroline Islands (Guam, Truk, Pohnpei) and Pingelap. Patterns of species diversity show Guam, Truk, Pohnpei, Pingelap, Kwajalein and Onotoa have the highest species richness (S=32-42) and Shannon-Wiener diversity values (H(S)=2.62-3.02) in the study area. Enewetak, Jaluit, Majuro and Arno show lower values (S=23-27, H(S)=2.29-2.70). Of the ostracode species living in Micronesia, 64.3% have Indo-West Pacific affinities, 7.1% are circumtropical, 5.7% have East Pacific-Caribbean affinities, 11.4% are endemic to Micronesia, and 11.4% have unknown affinities. If the southeast Asian region is a primary species-source, the results show that each Micronesian lagoon is equally likely to be colonized by dispersal from the source region, despite differences in distance from a hypothetical source. However, each lagoon has a distinct ostracode assemblage, probably the result of unique history of random colonization events, local extinctions and environmental disturbances.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2016

Extending Alaska's plate boundary: tectonic tremor generated by Yakutat subduction

The tectonics of the eastern end of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone are complicated by the inclusion of the Yakutat microplate, which is colliding into and subducting beneath continental North America at near-Pacific-plate rates. The interaction among these plates at depth is not well understood, and further east, even less is known about the plate boundary or the source of Wrangell volcanism. The drop-off in Wadati-Benioff zone (WBZ) seismicity could signal the end of the plate boundary, the start of aseismic subduction, or a tear in the downgoing plate. Further compounding the issue is the possible presence of the Wrangell slab, which is faintly outlined by an anemic, eastward-dipping WBZ beneath the Wrangell volcanoes. In this study, I performed a search for tectonic tremor to map slow, plate-boundary slip in south-central Alaska. I identified ∼11,000 tremor epicenters, which continue 85 km east of the inferred Pacific plate edge marked by WBZ seismicity. The tremor zone coincides with the edges of the downgoing Yakutat terrane, and tremors transition from periodic to continuous behavior as they near the aseismic Wrangell slab. I interpret tremor to mark slow, semicontinuous slip occurring at the interface between the Yakutat and North America plates. The slow slip region lengthens the megathrust interface beyond the WBZ and may provide evidence for a connection between the Yakutat slab and the aseismic Wrangell slab.

Geology↗

USGS2006

Microsatellite variation reveals weak genetic structure and retention of genetic variability in threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) within a Snake River watershed

Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) have been central to the development of management concepts associated with evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), yet there are still relatively few studies of genetic diversity within threatened and endangered ESUs for salmon or other species. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci to evaluate spatial population structure and genetic variability in indigenous Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) across a large wilderness basin within a Snake River ESU. Despite dramatic 20th century declines in abundance, these populations retained robust levels of genetic variability. No significant genetic bottlenecks were found, although the bottleneck metric (M ratio) was significantly correlated with average population size and variability. Weak but significant genetic structure existed among tributaries despite evidence of high levels of gene flow, with the strongest genetic differentiation mirroring the physical segregation of fish from two sub-basins. Despite the more recent colonization of one sub-basin and differences between sub-basins in the natural level of fragmentation, gene diversity and genetic differentiation were similar between sub-basins. Various factors, such as the (unknown) genetic contribution of precocial males, genetic compensation, lack of hatchery influence, and high levels of current gene flow may have contributed to the persistence of genetic variability in this system in spite of historical declines. This unique study of indigenous Chinook salmon underscores the importance of maintaining natural populations in interconnected and complex habitats to minimize losses of genetic diversity within ESUs.

Idaho↗

USGS2010

Clockwise rotation and implications for northward drift of the western Transverse Ranges from paleomagnetism of the Piuma Member, Sespe Formation, near Malibu, California

New paleomagnetic results from mid-Tertiary sedimentary beds in the Santa Monica Mountains reinforce the evidence for large-scale rotation of the western Transverse Ranges, and anisotropy measurements indicate that compaction-induced inclination flattening may resolve a long-standing controversy regarding the original paleolatitude of the rotated block. Previously published paleomagnetic data indicate that post-Oligocene rotation amounts to 70°–110° clockwise, affecting the Channel Islands, Santa Monica Mountains, and Santa Ynez Mountains. The Sespe Formation near Malibu consists of a lower member dominated by nonmarine sandstone and conglomerate and an upper section, the Piuma Member, which consists of gray-red sandstone and mudstone interbedded with minor tuff and limestone beds. The Piuma Member has a paleomagnetic pole at 36.6°N, 326.7°E (A 95min = 5.0°, A 95max = 9.6°), obtained by thermal demagnetization of 34 oriented cores from Oligocene and early Miocene beds. After correcting for plunge of the geologic structure, the data are consistent with significant clockwise rotation (77° ± 7°) of the region relative to stable North America. Rotation of the western Transverse Ranges is generally viewed as a consequence of Pacific–North American plate interactions after 28 Ma, when east–west subduction gave way to northwest transform motion in southern California. Inclinations from the Piuma study indicate a paleolatitude anomaly of 11° ± 7° and are consistent with a mean northward drift that exceeds generally accepted San Andreas fault displacement by a factor of 3. However, sedimentary inclination error may accentuate the anomaly. Anisotropy of isothermal remanent magnetization indicates inclination flattening of approximately 8°, and correction for the effect reduces the paleolatitude anomaly to 5.3° ± 5.8°. Compaction may explain the inclination flattening in these sedimentary rocks, but the process does not adequately explain lower-than-expected inclinations found in previous studies of Miocene volcanic rocks of the western Transverse Ranges.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗

USGS2026

Tectonic controls on volcanism and associated hydrothermal activity in a sediment-dominated mid-ocean ridge; Escanaba Trough

Mid-ocean ridges, the Earth's most extensive volcanic system, exhibit unique characteristics in sediment-dominant environments. Thick sediment cover insulates the crust and channels fluid along pathways that can lead to the formation of distinct crustal alteration patterns, exceptionally large mineral deposits, and specialized chemosynthetic ecosystems. This study presents an interdisciplinary investigation into the tectonics of the Escanaba Trough, a heavily sedimented axial valley at the southern Gorda Ridge in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. A primary challenge in such environments is overcoming the masking effect of thick sediments on basement structures that control magmatic and hydrothermal activity. We address this by employing three-dimensional (3D) magnetic modeling of high-resolution near-seafloor magnetic data collected by an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). The 2022 surveys with AUV Sentry provided data for 3D magnetic susceptibility models, refining our understanding of the geometry of sub-sediment laccoliths/saucer-shaped sills and hydrothermal alteration. In conjunction with a new 1:100,000 scale lithostratigraphic map, we outline the tectonic controls on the emplacement of Escanaba Trough's three main volcanic centers, characterize the geometry of its spreading segments, and provide volumetric data on the distribution of sub-sediment volcanism in the southern Gorda Ridge.

Escanaba Trough, Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2007

Spatial variability in water-balance model performance in the conterminous United States

A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2010

Milankovitch-scale correlations between deeply buried microbial populations and biogenic ooze lithology

The recent discoveries of large, active populations of microbes in the subseafloor of the world's oceans supports the impact of the deep biosphere biota on global biogeochemical cycles and raises important questions concerning the functioning of these extreme environments for life. These investigations demonstrated that subseafloor microbes are unevenly distributed and that cell abundances and metabolic activities are often independent from sediment depths, with increased prokaryotic activity at geochemical and/or sedimentary interfaces. In this study we demonstrate that microbial populations vary at the scale of individual beds in the biogenic oozes of a drill site in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 201, Site 1226). We relate bedding-scale changes in biogenic ooze sediment composition to organic carbon (OC) and microbial cell concentrations using high-resolution color reflectance data as proxy for lithology. Our analyses demonstrate that microbial concentrations are an order of magnitude higher in the more organic-rich diatom oozes than in the nannofossil oozes. The variations mimic small-scale variations in diatom abundance and OC, indicating that the modern distribution of microbial biomass is ultimately controlled by Milankovitch-frequency variations in past oceanographic conditions. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2012

Effects of the amphibian chytrid fungus and four insecticides on Pacific treefrogs ( Pseudacris regilla )

Chemical contamination may influence host-pathogen interactions, which has implications for amphibian population declines. We examined the effects of four insecticides alone or as a mixture on development and metamorphosis of Pacific Treefrogs ( Pseudacris regilla ) in the presence or absence of the amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]). Bd exposure had a negative impact on tadpole activity, survival to metamorphosis, time to metamorphosis, and time of tail absorption (with a marginally negative effect on mass at metamorphosis); however, no individuals tested positive for Bd at metamorphosis. The presence of sublethal concentrations of insecticides alone or in a mixture did not impact Pacific Treefrog activity as tadpoles, survival to metamorphosis, or time and size to metamorphosis. Insecticide exposure did not influence the effect of Bd exposure. Our study did not support our prediction that effects of Bd would be greater in the presence of expected environmental concentrations of insecticide(s), but it did show that Bd had negative effects on responses at metamorphosis that could reduce the quality of juveniles recruited into the population.

Journal of Herpetology↗

USGS2021

Historical changes in bed elevation and water depth within the Nehalem Bay, Oregon, 1891–2019

Estuaries, at the nexus of rivers and the ocean, are depositional areas that respond to changes in streamflow, tides, sea level, and inputs of sediment from marine and watershed sources. Understanding changes in bed elevations, deposited and eroded sediment, and water depth throughout estuaries is relevant for understanding their present-day status and long-term evolution, identifying potential hazards to human communities, and informing estuarine conservation. In response to observations of sedimentation in the Nehalem Bay, northwestern Oregon, by the Port of Nehalem, the magnitudes and patterns of bathymetric change in the Bay were documented and described by two approaches. The first approach compared changes in bed elevation with estimated volumes of erosion and deposition from overlapping survey data acquired in 1957 and 2019 for the area of the Nehalem Bay from upstream of the Highway 101 bridge to downstream of Fishery Point. The second approach examined changes in water depth for seven zones from the confluence of the North Fork and Nehalem Rivers to the mouth of the Nehalem River using nautical charts (1891, 1947, 1970, 1990, and 2004). These two approaches were used because the bathymetric surveys from 1957 and 2019 could be tied to a common vertical datum, allowing for a direct comparison of changes in bed elevations, whereas the nautical charts could not be tied to a common vertical datum, which limited the analyses to a comparison of changes in water depths over a broader time frame. Bed elevation changes from 1957 to 2019 were assessed from upstream of the Highway 101 bridge to downstream of Fishery Point where the two surveys overlapped (2 square kilometers) using thalweg longitudinal profiles, channel cross sections, and digital elevation models (DEMs) showing the elevation differences between the two surveys (or DEMs of difference). The most prominent change between 1957 and 2019 was the migration of the thalweg (or deepest part of the channel) between the downstream end of Lazarus Island and downstream of Fishery Point; this migration resulted in sediment deposition in the former thalweg and sediment erosion in formerly shallow areas to form the new thalweg. Bed elevation changes in the thalweg also varied longitudinally between 1957 and 2019. The bed elevation of the thalweg in both surveys, however, was generally less than 1 meter (m). The thalweg in the area of overlapping surveys shortened from about 7.0 to 6.7 kilometers in length over that same period. The bed elevation changes between the DEMs showed that maximum erosion and deposition was 4.3 and 4.5 m, respectively. In this same time period, the net change in sediment volume was 230,000 cubic meters (m 3 ), indicating net deposition. However, the error estimated for the 95 percent confidence interval analyses is ±315,000 m 3 , and therefore does not preclude the possibility that net erosion may have occurred. Historical changes in water depth from soundings depicted on nautical charts from 1891, 1947, 1970, 1990, and 2004 were evaluated by assessing spatial and temporal changes for seven zones of the Nehalem Bay. Across all years and zones, water depths ranged from about 0.2 to 9.4 m, whereas median water depths ranged from 0.3 to 6.4 m. Median depths and the range of water depths did not systematically increase or decrease throughout all zones during the same periods. In all nautical charts, the zone at the mouth of the Nehalem River consistently had the deepest soundings (7.9 to 9.4 m) and the greatest range of water depths (7.3 to 8.8 m). Qualitative evaluation of the nautical charts showed minimal changes in the overall shape of the Nehalem Bay. The exception to this observation was at the mouth of the Bay, where two historical outlets to the Pacific Ocean depicted in the 1891 nautical chart were reduced to one outlet following the construction of jetties (1916 and 1918). The results of this study emphasize that bed elevations and water depths within the Nehalem Bay have varied between 1891 and 2019, as illustrated by the lateral and vertical changes in the thalweg and changes in water depths over time. Changes in thalweg position and related patterns of sediment erosion and deposition are expected in the future as the Nehalem Bay continues to respond to changes in tides, sea level, streamflow, and sediment inputs from watershed and marine sources. The results of this study and the surveys from 1957 and 2019 provide a foundation for documenting and evaluating future changes in the Nehalem Bay and prioritizing actions to manage and protect natural resources and recreational access to the Nehalem Bay.

Oregon↗

USGS1988

Douglas-fir forests in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon and Washington: is the abundance of small mammals related to stand age and moisture?

Red tree voles (Arborimus longicaudus) were the only small mammal strongly associated with old-growth forests, whereas vagrant shrews (Sorex vagrans) were most abundant in young forests. Pacific marsh shrews (S. bendirii) were most abundant in wet old-growth forests, but abundance of this species in young (wet) forests needs further study. Clearcuts had a mammalian fauna distinct from young forest stands. Abundance of several species was correlated to habitat features unique to naturally regenerated forests, indicated an urgent need to study the long-term effects of forest management to nongame wildlife.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2023

Evaluating the institutional and ecological effects of invasive species prevention policy: A case study from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Wildlife and natural resource institutions play key roles in invasive species monitoring and management. Paradoxically, the extensive fieldwork undertaken by these institutions and their partners may result in the inadvertent movement and spread of invasive species within and between sensitive ecosystems. In this work, we consider the potential effects of internal guidelines and policies designed to prevent the spread of invasive species by the field activities of management institutions and their partners. Such policies could be high-leverage tools for invasive species prevention, however, as large, complex organizations seek to implement policies to limit the spread of invasive species, it may be challenging to accommodate the wide diversity of potential invasion pathways and mitigation efforts facilitated via the programs, activities, and ecosystems they manage. Prevention policies may also be met with resistance due to the costs of implementation unless concrete benefits can be demonstrated. Assessing and communicating the effects of prevention policies could motivate improved implementation and adherence by institutional units and partners and could help inform adaptive policy changes. However, assessing the effectiveness of invasive species prevention presents a unique set of challenges, including incomplete data on invasive species distribution and pathways, that make it difficult to measure the effects of prevention efforts. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for evaluating institutional policies for invasive species prevention. We describe a flexible, multifaceted approach that considers policy implementation and adherence as well as ecological outcomes. We discuss potential application of this framework using a policy recently implemented by the Pacific Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to prevent the introduction and spread of invasive species by service personnel and partners during field activities as a case study.

Management of Biological Invasions↗

USGS2023

Towards improved code-based performance objectives for liquefaction hazard analysis

Ground failure due to liquefaction in loose sand deposits poses substantial risks to the built environment, and has caused significant damage in past earthquakes to a wide range of infrastructure. Advances in liquefaction hazard analysis in practice have largely stagnated in recent years; the state of practice remains rooted in simplified procedure s that ignore considerable uncertainties in liquefaction phenomena, and are largely conditional on single-return period ground motions. As a result, they lack any sort of liquefaction-specific design criteria or performance objective. Presented herein is a roadmap for using probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis (PLHA) to address many of these limitations and improve liquefaction design guidelines. PLHA incorporates hazard contributions from the full ground motion hazard space in conjunction with probabilistic liquefaction models, to produce hazard curves for various types of liquefaction-related demands. In this study, PLHA is utilized to assess the current, implied liquefaction design levels at 76 study sites throughout the U.S. using ASCE 7 guidelines, by computing effective return periods of liquefaction factor of safety FSL, and liquefaction potential index LPI. The results indicate broad inconsistencies in these design levels across different parts of the U.S, with return periods varying from about 300 years in deterministically-capped parts of California, to nearly 3,000 years on the Pacific Northwest coast and in the Charleston Fault zone region. These results are also used to inform potential strategies for establishing consistent, liquefaction-specific design objectives in the future, based on return period averaging methods that weight the importance of a study site according to both the population and relative liquefaction hazard level.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2011

Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude M w 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great earthquakes over the past 5,000 years. The instrumental catalog of earthquakes is of little use for constraining the hazard of the CSZ, because there are virtually no recorded earthquakes on most of the plate interface of the CSZ. There are no historical accounts in the past 150 years of large earthquakes on most of the CSZ. Until about 20 years ago, some interpreted this lack of recent and historical earthquakes as an indicator that the subduction zone was slipping aseismically and could not produce a great earthquake. The work of Brian Atwater and others, in the late 1980s and the 1990s (Atwater, 1987, 1992; Atwater and others, 1995; Nelson and others, 1996; Clague, 1997; Atwater and Hemphill-Haley, 1997; Atwater and others, 2004) demonstrated that submerged forests, buried soils, tsunami deposits, and liquefaction along and near the coast were compelling evidence of repeated great Cascadia earthquakes over at least the past 5,000 years. Atwater and Hemphill-Haley (1997) concluded from paleoseismic evidence at Willapa Bay, Washington, that great earthquakes ruptured the CSZ with an average recurrence time of about 500 years. The date of the last great CSZ earthquake, January 26, 1700, was established from historical records of the so-called orphan tsunami in Japan that is inferred to have been produced by this earthquake (Satake and others, 1996, 2003; Atwater and others, 2005) and is consistent with tree-ring data from drowned forests in Washington and Oregon. From modeling the observations of the tsunami, Satake and others (2003) estimated a moment magnitude of about 9.0 for this earthquake. Many other paleoseismic sites have been investigated along the Pacific Northwest coast from Vancouver Island to northern California and show evidence of great CSZ earthquakes. Nelson and others (2006) summarized the dates found from these studies and proposed correlations between sites indicating the extent of rupture for individual events. Dating of inferred tsunami deposits in Bradley Lake, Oregon by Kelsey and others (2005), as well as tsunami and subsidence evidence from Six Rivers, Oregon (Kelsey and others, 2002) and Coquille River (Witter and others, 2003), indicates that there were probably M w 8 ruptures in the southern portion of the CSZ in addition to the M w 9 events that rupture the whole length of the CSZ (Nelson and others, 2006). A parallel development over the past 20 years or more is the use of deep-sea turbidite deposits for identifying and dating great Cascadia earthquakes over the past 10,000 years (Adams, 1990; Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Turbidites are sediment deposits in the deep ocean from turbidity currents, which are energetic flows of sediment and water along the continental shelf and slope. Adams (1990), using the counts of turbidites in deep-sea cores off the coast of Oregon and Washington collected and analyzed by Griggs (1969) and Griggs and others (1969), proposed that these turbidites were caused by the shaking of great Cascadia earthquakes. Part of his reasoning was that the number (13) of turbidite deposits that occurred since deposition of the Mazama Ash 7,000 years ago gave a recurrence time of about 500 years, consistent with that derived from the coastal submergence data. Adams (1990) also proposed the “confluence test” which evaluates the number of turbidites for submarine channels that form a confluence. He reported that the number of turbidites in the single downstream channel equaled the number in each of the tributary channels. He reasoned that this indicated that the turbidites in each tributary were simultaneously triggered and were, therefore, caused by a common forcing agent. He concluded that shaking from extended ruptures of great Cascadia earthquakes was the most likely cause of these turbidites. Based on the paleoseismic evidence of past great earthquakes, the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone was included in the 1996 U.S. NSHM (Frankel and others, 1996), which were the basis for seismic provisions in the 2000 International Building Code. These hazard maps used the paleoseismic studies to constrain the recurrence rate of great CSZ earthquakes. Goldfinger and his colleagues have since collected many more deep ocean cores and done extensive analysis on the turbidite deposits that they identified in the cores (Goldfinger and others, 2003, 2008, in press; Goldfinger, 2011). Using their dating of the sediments and correlation of features in the logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores, they developed a detailed chronology of great earthquakes along the CSZ for the past 10,000 years (Goldfinger and others, in press). These correlations consist of attempting to match the peaks and valleys in logs of density and magnetic susceptibility between cores separated, in some cases, by hundreds of kilometers. Based on this work, Goldfinger and others (2003, 2008, in press) proposed that the turbidite evidence indicated the occurrence of great earthquakes (M w 8) that only ruptured the southern portion of the CSZ, as well as earthquakes with about M w 9 that ruptured the entire length of the CSZ. For the southernmost portion of the CSZ, Goldfinger and others (in press) proposed a recurrence time of M w 8 or larger earthquakes of about 230 years. This proposed recurrence time was shorter than the 500 year time that was incorporated in one scenario in the NSHM’s. It is important to note that the hazard maps of 1996 and later also included a scenario or set of scenarios with a shorter recurrence time for M w 8 earthquakes, using rupture zones that are distributed along the length of the CSZ (Frankel and others, 1996; Petersen and others, 2008). Originally, this scenario was meant to correspond to the idea that some of the 500-year averaged ruptures seen in the paleoseismic evidence could have been a series of M w 8 earthquakes that occurred over a short period of time (a few decades), rather than M w 9 earthquakes. Figure 2 shows the logic tree for the CSZ used in the 2008 NSHM’s (Petersen and others, 2008). This logic tree includes whole CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.8–9.2) and partial CSZ rupture earthquakes (M w 8.0–8.7). In this latest version of the NSHM’s, the effective recurrence time of earthquakes on the CSZ with moment magnitudes greater than or equal to 8.0 over the various models is about 270 years (Petersen and others, 2008). This recurrence time applies to the entire CSZ, so that the hazard from great earthquakes was approximately equal along the whole zone, although the hazard estimates taper on the northern and southern ends of the CSZ, because of the way rupture zones of M w 8 earthquakes were distributed along the strike of the CSZ. The NSHM will be updated in 2013, as part of the standard update cycle that corresponds to the update cycle of the national model building codes that are based on the seismic hazard maps. A meeting was necessary to assemble a wide group of experts to hear Dr. Goldfinger explain his methodology for dating and correlating the turbidites and for developing the earthquake chronology. The overall goal of the workshop was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence times and rupture extents of great Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes for the next update of the NSHM. Before the meeting, participants were supplied with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper of Goldfinger and others (in press), as well as material from Brian Atwater and Alan Nelson. The agenda of the meeting was developed by Art Frankel, with assistance from Chris Goldfinger, Brian Atwater, Alan Nelson, Mark Petersen, and Craig Weaver. The meeting was hosted by Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University. We stress that it is difficult to evaluate in a two-day meeting the large amount of work that Goldfinger and his colleagues have done over the past 15 years or more. This meeting is the first step in a process that develops the inputs to the update of the national maps. The conclusions of this workshop will be discussed and possibly modified at the regional Pacific Northwest workshop for the hazard maps to be held in early 2012. Vetting new research results using informed expert opinion is an integral part of updating the national maps and does not reflect on the veracity of these results.

Cascadia↗

USGS2000

Predicting the probability of detecting organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in stream systems on the basis of land use in the Pacific Northwest, USA

We analyzed streambed sediment and fish tissue (Cottus sp.) at 30 sites in the Puget Sound and Willamette basins in Washington and Oregon, USA, respectively, for organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The study was designed to determine the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in fish tissue and sediment by land use within these basins and to develop an empirical relation between land use and the probability of detecting these compounds in fish tissue or sediment. We identified 14 organochlorines in fish tissue and sediment; three compounds were unique to either fish tissue or sediment samples. The highest number of organochlorines detected in both fish tissue and streambed sediment was at those sites located in watersheds dominated by urban land uses. Using logistic regression, we found a significant relation between percentage agriculture and urban land use and organochlorines in fish tissue. The results of this study indicate that organochlorine pesticides and PCBs are still found in fish tissues and bed sediments in these two basins. In addition, we produced statistically significant models capable of predicting the probability of detecting specific organochlorines in fish on the basis of land use. Although the presented models are specific to the two study basins, the modeling approach could be applied to other basins as well.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗